A d v e r t i s e m e n t
One of the risks we run in fantasy football is not being 100%
sure the changes we make are good decisions. When it comes to
ranking players during the preseason, when are our eyes telling
us the truth and when are they deceiving us?
Some changes occur in the rankings simply because they have to
(injuries), others take place because a coach or general manager
sheds a bit of light on his team’s depth chart and still
others happen when one player is simply a much better player than
the version we remember from the previous year. After watching
as much football as I have over the years, I have learned to simply
look for players who look like they don’t belong –
good and bad – over the first two full weeks of the preseason
or are quicker/faster/stronger/lighter than they were last season.
Since the third week of the preseason is the only one in which
coaches actually exercise their game-planning muscles, it is almost
pointless to make a big deal about what we see outside of what
I have already mentioned because coaches on both sides of the
ball are using base looks almost exclusively. Even in the upcoming
all-important third week, preseason football provides very little
in the way of context. (Will the offense feature a certain player
or is the defense he is going against any good?)
Fantasy football veterans understand the volatility of the market
this time of year, which goes a long way in explaining why so
many adjustments need to be made in such a short amount of time.
Sometimes, my Big Board will change simply because I have taken
another week to collect information to strengthen my case for
one set of players. In other situations, I saw what I needed to
see from a player in the preseason or simply had a change of heart
about his situation that allowed me to move him. But more than
anything, taking another seven days to reassess the fantasy landscape
sometimes is enough to lead to a makeover of the Big Board.
In an effort to make sure I am not affected by last
week’s rankings, I start from scratch each week once
I finish a Big Board (only referring to the “old”
one when I refer to how much a player’s stock has increased/decreased).
And don’t think for a second that my Big Boards stay the
same once I have submitted the third and final one. Breaking news
and other information obtained in the minutes and hours prior
to a draft – and sometimes even during a draft – can
lead to a shift in thinking. While that may seem a bit extreme,
the truth is that owners cannot always take a day to collect their
thoughts about how they feel about a season-ending injury, change
in job status, trade or free agent pickup that just happens to
occur as your league is having its draft.
Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value
when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify
it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value"
using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB,
three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples
and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB, the value reflects the standard
deviation from the 24th-ranked player at the position and, at
WR, the 36th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times before
over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has
to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't
hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding
the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass
up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week
1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great
drafters from the very good ones.
Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting
up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense
has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example
of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him
the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge
advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot
account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost”
– the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when
one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass
on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value
also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running
back after the established top options are drafted, usually by
the end of the first round or early in the second. Smart drafting
also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not
nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots
in 12-team leagues, but there are usually at least 36 receivers
around the league that are worthy fantasy starters.
Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
a few key points about the Big Boards:
1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you
see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on
projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point
total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the
so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers.
Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points
at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's
not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my
RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds
during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may
end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my
board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. I will put more stock into this area
in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down
each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t
follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average
and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my
rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down
my board – despite a higher average or overall point total
– if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear
risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to
holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a 
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will
see a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below
***In addition to discussing value above, there is one other note
regarding the numbers in the “value” column: numbers
that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers
are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined,
the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while
the latter values are on the left side.) Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
One final note: Over the next
week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections
(basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one
defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just
five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different
– particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they
currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process
takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information
about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can
assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the
most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.
Top 25: If you spend much time
comparing Big Boards from week to week (and I know you do), you’ll
notice that Forte received a bit of a bump in his average and point
total. New HC Marc Trestman has brought a lot of smart and much-needed
change to the Bears’ offense and much of that affects Forte.
The most significant changes from a fantasy perspective (besides
the almost guaranteed spike in receptions) are the upgrades along
the offensive line and Trestman’s willingness to let Forte
prove it was his offensive line – and not him – that
was the cause of his poor conversion rate at the goal line. The
Bears ran behind their all-rookie right side (RG Kyle Long and RT
Jordan Mills) four straight times inside the red zone on Forte’s
final drive of the Week 2 contest against the Chargers, converting
easily on the final attempt. Consider for a second that all five
of Michael Bush’s five rushing scores came inside the 3 in
2012 while Forte scored five times rushing touchdowns himself in
a rather ordinary offense and there is reason Forte to believe could
push top-five status if he simply steals half of Bush’s goal-line
work. This is a development worth keeping an eye on this weekend
for a running back most consider to be a second-rounder in fantasy
drafts.
Given the limited amount of information we now have about Foster,
it is time to start depressing his stock. Texans HC Gary Kubiak
told reporters Sunday that Foster’s back pain “has
gone into his legs” and “requiring injections”.
Even those of us that have never had anything worse than back
spasms know this is not a good sign and it is entirely possible
we could be back here next week talking about Foster’s availability
for the season – and not just Week 1. Right now, I’ll
opt for the glass half-full approach and suggest that owners drafting
this week take him at the turn as a RB2 – if they don’t
mind the risk – and hope for the best. The realist in me
knows back injuries rarely ever just go away and, as a result,
I would probably not draft him as anything more than a flex option
(again, based on the information we have on August 19). Hopefully,
this is merely an overreaction and Foster is back to near 100%
by Week 1, but I fear this story will not end well.
26-50: I personally don’t
subscribe to the WR-WR-WR approach and probably never will, but
an owner could come out of the first three rounds with Calvin
Johnson, Julio Jones and Cruz/Amendola based on current ADP. While
that method ignores the fact there are enough good running backs
that every owner should be able to grab one in the first round
as well as the depth at the receiver position, it is a strategy
that has a bit of merit when you consider there should be alternatives
like Lacy, Bradshaw, Ivory or Vereen available over the next two
rounds. Owners that believe in the receiver-heavy method typically
argue running backs take too much punishment and thus are not
worth an early pick, but I would suggest that is the very reason
why it makes sense to load up on them (without reaching, thus
my board). The most recent example comes from the big-money league
I won last season in which I drafted (in order) McFadden, Sproles
and Richardson. Had I not decided not to take Richardson in the
third – in part to punish the owners drafting behind me
that loaded up on receivers earlier – I would not have won
the league. The draft should be about securing what is the hardest
to find every year – consistently elite running backs –
because an owner buys him/herself a margin for error if they miss
on a pick and can always trade from a position of strength (if
they hit on all two or three).
Owners better be prepared to pay up for two injury-risk running
backs I referenced earlier – Lacy and Vereen – in
the coming weeks. Vereen has seen his ADP skyrocket in part because
of the personnel losses New England has suffered since the end
of last season and also in part due to all the different positions
the Patriots are supposedly lining him up at in practice. Bearing
in mind the Patriots are notorious for zigging when most people
think they are zagging (particularly at the running back position),
New England tends to be among the best teams in the league when
it comes to creating mismatches and Vereen should be their top
wild-card offensive player in 2013. Although I have some concerns
about his consistency – he’s ranked as my 22nd-best
RB despite the 17th-highest average – owners should not
be disappointed with him in their flex spot in PPR leagues. As
far as Lacy is concerned, this weekend’s fine showing shouldn’t
have come as a surprise – he was the draft’s most
powerful back and made a few good college defenses look really
bad at the end of last season. His issue is – and probably
will always be – durability. He has top-20 upside, but he’s
a big risk as a weekly starter given his injury history. With
that said, he’s the most talented back Green Bay has employed
since Ahman Green.
51-100: Tate, Daryl Richardson
and Bernard also saw their stock rise in my eyes over the past
week, with Tate being the most obvious now that we have a bit
more information regarding Foster’s back issues. There will
be those that question that kind of jump of the last two –
and rightfully so – but the former is simply an acknowledgment
that I had the Cincinnati rookie too low given his likely contributions
to the passing game while the latter was a case of getting a bit
more information on the running back competition in St. Louis.
Bernard is quite likely to go a half- or full-round higher than
I have him ranked here, but I cannot defend paying much more for
a player who is extremely unlikely to see goal-line work with
a healthy BenJarvus Green-Ellis still on the roster. As much as
I try to be predictive – as opposed to reactive –
in fantasy, I have seen way too many instances in which the Bengals
have stated their need to add speed and generate big plays out
of the running game over the years only to stick to their power-based
roots. Richardson reminded me last week of his ability to run
inside in the Rams’ first preseason game and although Isaiah
Pead had an impressive run or two last weekend against the Packers,
it was Richardson who stood out more in limited action. While
Richardson is unlikely to see more than 15 touches/week as a “space
player”, he’ll be more than useful in PPR formats
like Sproles and Vereen before him.
Wallace was due for a drop in the rankings prior to Dustin Keller’s
horrible knee injury, but will likely take over as the Dolphins’
top red-zone option in addition to being the best deep threat.
And for all the reports coming out of Miami that Tannehill and
Wallace are struggling with chemistry, I saw no evidence of it
against Houston over the weekend. While I’m not going so
far as to proclaim that Wallace will return to his top-10 receiver
form from his days in Pittsburgh, Dolphins HC Joe Philbin and
OC Mike Sherman are sharp enough to make sure his stock will not
plummet in Miami. As promised last week, DeSean Jackson receives
his anticipated bump up the Big Board, but so does Hilton and
Antonio Brown. Although I haven’t seen any evidence to make
me believe he is willing to go over the middle of the field routinely,
Jackson should be able to do plenty of damage on screens, reverses
and go routes in Philadelphia’s fast-paced offense. (We’ll
get to the other Eagles’ receiver I’m willing to recommend
on the non-PPR page.) I was riding the Darrius Heyward-Bey train
up until a few weeks ago because the Colts wanted him to be the
starter and he has the type of talent that could really open up
the Colts’ offense, but DHB is having his struggles and
practice and Hilton might as well be the willing-to-run-inside-routes
version of the Eagles’ Jackson. I’m a little leery
about Brown, but he should be just fine as a WR3 in PPR given
his unquestioned WR1 status as Roethlisberger’s top target
in OC Todd Haley’s short-passing game.
101-175: Britt is a player
I keep going back and forth on this summer. As a player going
in the ninth round, it is hard to debate his talent makes him
worth the risk at that point. And if I have a chance to grab him
as my fourth receiver, I will take that plunge in each and every
draft. But despite his continued insistence that his surgically-repaired
right knee feels “great”, Britt is still having issues
with it. Britt’s ability to go deep and ball skills make
him a good fit for the kind of offense I believe OC Dowell Loggains
will run in Tennessee, so his upside cannot be ignored. But as
owners consider his lengthy injury, he simply cannot be trusted
as anything more than a reserve option in three-receiver leagues.
That is the primary reason why he is ranked No. 39 at his position,
because his cost at that point makes sense. As a high-upside bye-week
option, the reward is obvious while the risk is greatly reduced
if he is forced to miss significant time.
Part of the attraction with taking talented rookies in fantasy
– even those stuck behind solid veterans – is having
the feeling they will come up big for your team at some point
during the season. The obvious downside is if they will do and
whether or not the owner has the patience and the roster space
to wait for it to happen. Two of my favorites are near the bottom
of the rankings in Wheaton and Robinson, both of whom could enjoy
significant value in 2013. In Wheaton’s case, he is a player
that I expect will forge a timeshare with Emmanuel Sanders sooner
than later. It could be argued that while Wheaton might not beat
the man he is replacing (Wallace) in a foot race, he is already
as polished as a route-runner as his predecessor. Expect the Oregon
State rookie to nip at Sanders’ heels all season long. In
Robinson’s situation, he is the dynamic “offensive
weapon” that Jacksonville hopes will contribute mostly at
running back while serving as an explosive option in the passing
game and perhaps even as a “Wildcat” quarterback from
time to time. His willingness to run inside – especially
for a player converting from quarterback in college – has
particularly impressed me and leads me to believe he will be Jones-Drew’s
backup sooner than later.
Next: Non-PPR
Big Board 
Suggestions, comments, about the article or
fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past
season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on
Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The
Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. |
