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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 175 Big Board, PPR: Version 2.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/20/13

PPR | Non-PPR | Ks & D/STs

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

One of the risks we run in fantasy football is not being 100% sure the changes we make are good decisions. When it comes to ranking players during the preseason, when are our eyes telling us the truth and when are they deceiving us?

Some changes occur in the rankings simply because they have to (injuries), others take place because a coach or general manager sheds a bit of light on his team’s depth chart and still others happen when one player is simply a much better player than the version we remember from the previous year. After watching as much football as I have over the years, I have learned to simply look for players who look like they don’t belong – good and bad – over the first two full weeks of the preseason or are quicker/faster/stronger/lighter than they were last season. Since the third week of the preseason is the only one in which coaches actually exercise their game-planning muscles, it is almost pointless to make a big deal about what we see outside of what I have already mentioned because coaches on both sides of the ball are using base looks almost exclusively. Even in the upcoming all-important third week, preseason football provides very little in the way of context. (Will the offense feature a certain player or is the defense he is going against any good?)

Fantasy football veterans understand the volatility of the market this time of year, which goes a long way in explaining why so many adjustments need to be made in such a short amount of time. Sometimes, my Big Board will change simply because I have taken another week to collect information to strengthen my case for one set of players. In other situations, I saw what I needed to see from a player in the preseason or simply had a change of heart about his situation that allowed me to move him. But more than anything, taking another seven days to reassess the fantasy landscape sometimes is enough to lead to a makeover of the Big Board.

In an effort to make sure I am not affected by last week’s rankings, I start from scratch each week once I finish a Big Board (only referring to the “old” one when I refer to how much a player’s stock has increased/decreased). And don’t think for a second that my Big Boards stay the same once I have submitted the third and final one. Breaking news and other information obtained in the minutes and hours prior to a draft – and sometimes even during a draft – can lead to a shift in thinking. While that may seem a bit extreme, the truth is that owners cannot always take a day to collect their thoughts about how they feel about a season-ending injury, change in job status, trade or free agent pickup that just happens to occur as your league is having its draft.

Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value" using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player at the position and, at WR, the 36th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great drafters from the very good ones.

Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost” – the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running back after the established top options are drafted, usually by the end of the first round or early in the second. Smart drafting also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues, but there are usually at least 36 receivers around the league that are worthy fantasy starters.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about a few key points about the Big Boards:

1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. I will put more stock into this area in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below

***In addition to discussing value above, there is one other note regarding the numbers in the “value” column: numbers that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

One final note: Over the next week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections (basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different – particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.

 PPR Big Board - Top 175
OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Doug Martin TB 24 5.80 22.1 331.0
2 2 RB Jamaal Charles KC 26 5.30 21.4 320.5
3 3 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 28 5.29 21.3 277.5
4 4 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 26 5.16 21.2 317.5
5 5 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 25 4.74 20.6 308.5
6 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 27 5.89 21.3 320.0
7 6 RB Trent Richardson CLE 23 4.31 20.0 299.5
8 7 RB Matt Forte CHI 27 4.97 20.9 313.5
9 8 RB Ray Rice BAL 26 4.22 19.8 297.5
10 9 RB Steven Jackson ATL 30 4.05 19.6 294.0
11 10 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 27 2.47 17.4 260.5
12 11 RB Alfred Morris WAS 24 2.33 17.2 257.5
13 12 RB Arian Foster HOU 27 5.04 21.0 315.0
14 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 26 4.62 18.6 278.5
15 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 29 4.08 26.6 398.7
16 2 WR Brandon Marshall CHI 29 4.78 19.8 296.5
17 3 WR Dez Bryant DAL 24 4.60 19.5 292.5
18 13 RB Chris Johnson TEN 27 3.13 18.3 274.5
19 14 RB Darren Sproles NO 30 2.57 17.5 262.5
20 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 24 4.36 19.2 287.5
21 15 RB Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 28 1.72 16.3 244.5
22 5 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 30 4.34 19.1 287.0
23 6 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 25 4.43 19.3 289.0
24 7 WR A.J. Green CIN 25 3.87 18.5 277.0
25 16 RB Reggie Bush DET 28 2.54 17.5 244.5
26 2 QB Drew Brees NO 34 3.97 26.4 396.5
27 3 QB Peyton Manning DEN 37 3.96 26.4 396.3
28 8 WR Roddy White ATL 31 3.61 18.1 271.5
29 9 WR Victor Cruz NYG 26 3.02 17.3 259.0
30 17 RB Stevan Ridley NE 24 0.52 14.6 219.0
31 10 WR Andre Johnson HOU 32 3.54 18.0 270.0
32 18 RB Frank Gore SF 30 0.00 13.9 208.0
33 11 WR Vincent Jackson TB 30 2.40 16.4 246.0
34 12 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 28 3.32 17.7 265.5
35 13 WR Danny Amendola NE 27 3.54 18.0 216.0
36 14 WR Randall Cobb GB 23 2.31 16.3 244.0
37 4 QB Matt Ryan ATL 28 2.62 24.5 367.7
38 5 QB Cam Newton CAR 24 1.82 23.4 350.8
39 19 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 25 2.13 16.9 202.5
40 20 RB Eddie Lacy GB 22 0.01 13.9 180.5
41 21 RB Le’Veon Bell PIT 21 1.39 15.8 237.5
42 22 RB Lamar Miller MIA 22 0.26 14.2 213.5
43 15 WR Eric Decker DEN 26 2.50 16.5 248.0
44 16 WR Wes Welker DEN 32 2.22 16.1 242.0
45 17 WR Jordy Nelson GB 28 1.91 15.7 235.5
46 23 RB Shane Vereen NE 24 1.86 16.5 198.0
47 24 RB Darren McFadden OAK 26 1.42 15.9 190.5
48 18 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 27 1.96 15.8 205.0
49 19 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 25 1.55 15.2 197.5
50 20 WR Steve Smith CAR 34 1.84 15.6 234.0
51 21 WR Marques Colston NO 30 1.53 15.2 227.5
52 25 RB David Wilson NYG 22 0.46 13.2 185.0
53 2 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 37 2.02 14.9 223.5
54 3 TE Jason Witten DAL 31 1.39 14.0 210.0
55 6 QB Matthew Stafford DET 25 1.48 22.9 343.7
56 7 QB Tom Brady NE 36 0.76 21.9 328.4
57 8 QB Colin Kaepernick SF 25 1.03 22.3 334.0
58 9 QB Russell Wilson SEA 23 0.47 21.5 322.2
59 4 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 24 1.07 13.5 149.0
60 26 RB Andre Brown NYG 26 1.77 11.4 159.0
61 27 RB Ben Tate HOU 25 4.02 8.2 114.5
62 28 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 21 1.89 11.2 168.0
63 29 RB Daryl Richardson STL 23 2.47 10.4 155.5
64 10 QB Robert Griffin III WAS 23 1.40 22.8 319.1
65 11 QB Andrew Luck IND 23 0.74 21.9 328.0
66 22 WR Reggie Wayne IND 34 1.11 14.6 218.5
67 23 WR Mike Williams TB 26 1.15 14.6 219.5
68 24 WR Mike Wallace MIA 27 0.82 14.2 212.5
69 25 WR James Jones GB 29 0.82 14.2 212.5
70 30 RB Ahmad Bradshaw IND 27 0.06 14.0 167.5
71 31 RB Danny Woodhead SD 28 2.17 10.8 162.0
72 26 WR Steve Johnson BUF 27 1.23 14.7 221.0
73 27 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 26 0.78 14.1 211.5
74 5 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 23 0.56 12.8 192.5
75 32 RB Chris Ivory NYJ 25 2.19 10.8 140.0
76 28 WR Cecil Shorts JAC 25 0.66 13.9 209.0
77 29 WR Antonio Brown PIT 26 0.54 13.8 206.5
78 12 QB Tony Romo DAL 33 0.00 20.8 312.2
79 30 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 23 0.21 13.3 199.5
80 6 TE Vernon Davis SF 29 0.47 12.7 190.5
81 31 WR Josh Gordon CLE 22 0.63 13.9 180.5
82 33 RB Montee Ball DEN 22 1.58 11.6 174.5
83 7 TE Jordan Cameron CLE 25 0.44 12.7 190.0
84 8 TE Jared Cook STL 26 0.70 13.0 195.5
85 32 WR Chris Givens STL 23 0.07 12.9 193.5
86 33 WR Torrey Smith BAL 24 0.05 13.1 196.0
87 34 WR Michael Floyd ARI 23 0.00 13.0 195.0
88 34 RB Rashard Mendenhall ARI 26 2.47 10.4 155.5
89 35 RB Pierre Thomas NO 28 2.14 10.8 162.5
90 36 RB Ryan Mathews SD 25 2.46 10.4 145.5
91 37 RB Mark Ingram NO 23 3.16 9.4 141.0
92 35 WR Greg Jennings MIN 29 0.51 13.7 192.0
93 36 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 21 0.49 12.3 184.5
94 9 TE Jermichael Finley GB 26 0.00 12.0 156.5
95 38 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 30 4.08 8.1 121.5
96 39 RB Vick Ballard IND 23 2.92 9.7 146.0
97 40 RB Bryce Brown PHI 22 3.98 8.2 123.5
98 37 WR Anquan Boldin SF 32 0.09 13.1 197.0
99 38 WR Tavon Austin STL 22 0.64 12.1 181.5
100 41 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 26 2.35 10.5 126.5
101 39 WR Kenny Britt TEN 24 0.12 12.8 192.5
102 42 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 28 3.58 8.8 132.0
103 13 QB Jay Cutler CHI 30 0.79 19.7 295.4
104 14 QB Andy Dalton CIN 25 0.26 20.4 306.7
105 10 TE Antonio Gates SD 33 0.76 13.1 170.5
106 11 TE Greg Olsen CAR 28 0.76 11.0 164.5
107 40 WR Golden Tate SEA 25 0.16 12.8 191.5
108 41 WR Miles Austin DAL 29 0.81 11.9 166.0
109 15 QB Josh Freeman TB 25 0.59 20.0 299.7
110 16 QB Sam Bradford STL 25 0.55 20.0 300.5
111 17 QB Eli Manning NYG 32 1.23 19.1 286.1
112 43 RB Bernard Pierce BAL 23 4.60 7.4 110.5
113 18 QB Michael Vick PHI 33 0.99 19.4 233.0
114 19 QB Carson Palmer ARI 33 1.75 18.3 275.0
115 44 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 21 4.29 7.8 117.0
116 42 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 23 0.82 11.8 177.5
117 45 RB Shonn Greene TEN 28 5.68 5.8 87.5
118 43 WR Justin Blackmon JAC 23 0.39 13.5 149.0
119 44 WR Ryan Broyles DET 25 0.59 12.2 146.0
120 46 RB Joique Bell DET 27 6.06 5.3 79.5
121 45 WR Emmanuel Sanders PIT 26 0.44 12.4 161.0
122 47 RB Lance Dunbar DAL 23 4.55 7.4 111.5
123 46 WR Lance Moore NO 30 1.89 10.3 155.0
124 47 WR Kenbrell Thompkins NE 26 2.36 9.7 145.0
125 48 WR Rueben Randle NYG 22 2.92 8.9 133.0
126 12 TE Owen Daniels HOU 30 0.95 10.7 160.5
127 48 RB Rashad Jennings OAK 28 6.39 4.8 72.5
128 49 WR Percy Harvin SEA 25 1.77 15.5 62.0
129 50 WR Vincent Brown SD 24 2.12 10.0 130.0
130 20 QB Matt Schaub HOU 32 1.36 18.9 283.4
131 21 QB Alex Smith KC 29 1.42 18.8 282.1
132 22 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 31 2.30 17.6 263.5
133 49 RB Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 24 5.87 5.6 83.5
134 50 RB Michael Bush CHI 29 6.01 5.4 80.5
135 13 TE Robert Housler ARI 25 0.62 11.2 167.5
136 14 TE Martellus Bennett CHI 26 1.46 10.0 149.5
137 51 WR Greg Little CLE 24 2.00 10.2 142.5
138 52 WR Kendall Wright TEN 23 1.34 11.1 166.5
139 53 WR Jason Avant PHI 30 1.46 10.9 164.0
140 51 RB Daniel Thomas MIA 25 5.83 5.6 73.0
141 54 WR Brian Hartline MIA 26 2.05 10.1 151.5
142 55 WR Sidney Rice SEA 27 2.12 10.0 150.0
143 56 WR Mohamed Sanu CIN 24 2.62 9.3 139.5
144 15 TE Coby Fleener IND 24 1.54 9.9 138.0
145 16 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 28 2.48 8.5 128.0
146 52 RB Fred Jackson BUF 32 4.23 7.9 102.5
147 53 RB Isaiah Pead STL 23 3.52 8.9 124.5
148 54 RB Christine Michael SEA 22 5.28 6.4 96.0
149 17 TE Julius Thomas DEN 25 0.98 10.7 138.5
150 57 WR Julian Edelman NE 27 1.90 10.3 113.5
151 58 WR Andre Roberts ARI 25 3.02 8.7 131.0
152 59 WR Rod Streater OAK 25 2.55 9.4 141.0
153 60 WR Jeremy Kerley NYJ 24 2.59 9.3 140.0
154 61 WR Denarius Moore OAK 24 3.06 8.7 130.0
155 55 RB Kendall Hunter SF 24 6.32 4.9 74.0
156 23 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA 25 2.39 17.4 261.6
157 24 QB Brandon Weeden CLE 29 2.62 17.1 256.6
158 62 WR Nate Burleson DET 32 2.60 9.3 130.5
159 18 TE Ed Dickson BAL 26 1.75 9.6 143.5
160 19 TE Fred Davis WAS 27 2.41 8.6 129.5
161 20 TE Brandon Myers NYG 27 3.23 7.5 112.0
162 64 WR Brandon LaFell CAR 26 3.21 8.5 128.0
163 65 WR Nate Washington TEN 30 3.94 7.5 112.5
164 66 WR Robert Woods BUF 21 3.58 8.0 120.0
165 21 TE Marcedes Lewis JAC 29 1.13 10.4 156.5
166 67 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey IND 26 3.81 7.7 107.5
167 56 RB Roy Helu WAS 24 6.57 4.6 69.0
168 57 RB Mikel Leshoure DET 23 6.80 4.3 64.0
169 58 RB Marcel Reece OAK 28 4.53 7.5 112.0
170 59 RB Zac Stacy STL 22 6.52 4.7 70.0
171 68 WR Markus Wheaton PIT 22 4.24 7.1 106.0
172 22 TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 24 3.23 7.5 112.0
173 23 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 22 3.23 7.5 112.0
174 24 TE Dwayne Allen IND 23 2.81 8.1 121.0
175 60 RB Denard Robinson JAC 22 6.59 4.6 68.5

Top 25: If you spend much time comparing Big Boards from week to week (and I know you do), you’ll notice that Forte received a bit of a bump in his average and point total. New HC Marc Trestman has brought a lot of smart and much-needed change to the Bears’ offense and much of that affects Forte. The most significant changes from a fantasy perspective (besides the almost guaranteed spike in receptions) are the upgrades along the offensive line and Trestman’s willingness to let Forte prove it was his offensive line – and not him – that was the cause of his poor conversion rate at the goal line. The Bears ran behind their all-rookie right side (RG Kyle Long and RT Jordan Mills) four straight times inside the red zone on Forte’s final drive of the Week 2 contest against the Chargers, converting easily on the final attempt. Consider for a second that all five of Michael Bush’s five rushing scores came inside the 3 in 2012 while Forte scored five times rushing touchdowns himself in a rather ordinary offense and there is reason Forte to believe could push top-five status if he simply steals half of Bush’s goal-line work. This is a development worth keeping an eye on this weekend for a running back most consider to be a second-rounder in fantasy drafts.

Given the limited amount of information we now have about Foster, it is time to start depressing his stock. Texans HC Gary Kubiak told reporters Sunday that Foster’s back pain “has gone into his legs” and “requiring injections”. Even those of us that have never had anything worse than back spasms know this is not a good sign and it is entirely possible we could be back here next week talking about Foster’s availability for the season – and not just Week 1. Right now, I’ll opt for the glass half-full approach and suggest that owners drafting this week take him at the turn as a RB2 – if they don’t mind the risk – and hope for the best. The realist in me knows back injuries rarely ever just go away and, as a result, I would probably not draft him as anything more than a flex option (again, based on the information we have on August 19). Hopefully, this is merely an overreaction and Foster is back to near 100% by Week 1, but I fear this story will not end well.

26-50: I personally don’t subscribe to the WR-WR-WR approach and probably never will, but an owner could come out of the first three rounds with Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Cruz/Amendola based on current ADP. While that method ignores the fact there are enough good running backs that every owner should be able to grab one in the first round as well as the depth at the receiver position, it is a strategy that has a bit of merit when you consider there should be alternatives like Lacy, Bradshaw, Ivory or Vereen available over the next two rounds. Owners that believe in the receiver-heavy method typically argue running backs take too much punishment and thus are not worth an early pick, but I would suggest that is the very reason why it makes sense to load up on them (without reaching, thus my board). The most recent example comes from the big-money league I won last season in which I drafted (in order) McFadden, Sproles and Richardson. Had I not decided not to take Richardson in the third – in part to punish the owners drafting behind me that loaded up on receivers earlier – I would not have won the league. The draft should be about securing what is the hardest to find every year – consistently elite running backs – because an owner buys him/herself a margin for error if they miss on a pick and can always trade from a position of strength (if they hit on all two or three).

Owners better be prepared to pay up for two injury-risk running backs I referenced earlier – Lacy and Vereen – in the coming weeks. Vereen has seen his ADP skyrocket in part because of the personnel losses New England has suffered since the end of last season and also in part due to all the different positions the Patriots are supposedly lining him up at in practice. Bearing in mind the Patriots are notorious for zigging when most people think they are zagging (particularly at the running back position), New England tends to be among the best teams in the league when it comes to creating mismatches and Vereen should be their top wild-card offensive player in 2013. Although I have some concerns about his consistency – he’s ranked as my 22nd-best RB despite the 17th-highest average – owners should not be disappointed with him in their flex spot in PPR leagues. As far as Lacy is concerned, this weekend’s fine showing shouldn’t have come as a surprise – he was the draft’s most powerful back and made a few good college defenses look really bad at the end of last season. His issue is – and probably will always be – durability. He has top-20 upside, but he’s a big risk as a weekly starter given his injury history. With that said, he’s the most talented back Green Bay has employed since Ahman Green.

51-100: Tate, Daryl Richardson and Bernard also saw their stock rise in my eyes over the past week, with Tate being the most obvious now that we have a bit more information regarding Foster’s back issues. There will be those that question that kind of jump of the last two – and rightfully so – but the former is simply an acknowledgment that I had the Cincinnati rookie too low given his likely contributions to the passing game while the latter was a case of getting a bit more information on the running back competition in St. Louis. Bernard is quite likely to go a half- or full-round higher than I have him ranked here, but I cannot defend paying much more for a player who is extremely unlikely to see goal-line work with a healthy BenJarvus Green-Ellis still on the roster. As much as I try to be predictive – as opposed to reactive – in fantasy, I have seen way too many instances in which the Bengals have stated their need to add speed and generate big plays out of the running game over the years only to stick to their power-based roots. Richardson reminded me last week of his ability to run inside in the Rams’ first preseason game and although Isaiah Pead had an impressive run or two last weekend against the Packers, it was Richardson who stood out more in limited action. While Richardson is unlikely to see more than 15 touches/week as a “space player”, he’ll be more than useful in PPR formats like Sproles and Vereen before him.

Wallace was due for a drop in the rankings prior to Dustin Keller’s horrible knee injury, but will likely take over as the Dolphins’ top red-zone option in addition to being the best deep threat. And for all the reports coming out of Miami that Tannehill and Wallace are struggling with chemistry, I saw no evidence of it against Houston over the weekend. While I’m not going so far as to proclaim that Wallace will return to his top-10 receiver form from his days in Pittsburgh, Dolphins HC Joe Philbin and OC Mike Sherman are sharp enough to make sure his stock will not plummet in Miami. As promised last week, DeSean Jackson receives his anticipated bump up the Big Board, but so does Hilton and Antonio Brown. Although I haven’t seen any evidence to make me believe he is willing to go over the middle of the field routinely, Jackson should be able to do plenty of damage on screens, reverses and go routes in Philadelphia’s fast-paced offense. (We’ll get to the other Eagles’ receiver I’m willing to recommend on the non-PPR page.) I was riding the Darrius Heyward-Bey train up until a few weeks ago because the Colts wanted him to be the starter and he has the type of talent that could really open up the Colts’ offense, but DHB is having his struggles and practice and Hilton might as well be the willing-to-run-inside-routes version of the Eagles’ Jackson. I’m a little leery about Brown, but he should be just fine as a WR3 in PPR given his unquestioned WR1 status as Roethlisberger’s top target in OC Todd Haley’s short-passing game.

101-175: Britt is a player I keep going back and forth on this summer. As a player going in the ninth round, it is hard to debate his talent makes him worth the risk at that point. And if I have a chance to grab him as my fourth receiver, I will take that plunge in each and every draft. But despite his continued insistence that his surgically-repaired right knee feels “great”, Britt is still having issues with it. Britt’s ability to go deep and ball skills make him a good fit for the kind of offense I believe OC Dowell Loggains will run in Tennessee, so his upside cannot be ignored. But as owners consider his lengthy injury, he simply cannot be trusted as anything more than a reserve option in three-receiver leagues. That is the primary reason why he is ranked No. 39 at his position, because his cost at that point makes sense. As a high-upside bye-week option, the reward is obvious while the risk is greatly reduced if he is forced to miss significant time.

Part of the attraction with taking talented rookies in fantasy – even those stuck behind solid veterans – is having the feeling they will come up big for your team at some point during the season. The obvious downside is if they will do and whether or not the owner has the patience and the roster space to wait for it to happen. Two of my favorites are near the bottom of the rankings in Wheaton and Robinson, both of whom could enjoy significant value in 2013. In Wheaton’s case, he is a player that I expect will forge a timeshare with Emmanuel Sanders sooner than later. It could be argued that while Wheaton might not beat the man he is replacing (Wallace) in a foot race, he is already as polished as a route-runner as his predecessor. Expect the Oregon State rookie to nip at Sanders’ heels all season long. In Robinson’s situation, he is the dynamic “offensive weapon” that Jacksonville hopes will contribute mostly at running back while serving as an explosive option in the passing game and perhaps even as a “Wildcat” quarterback from time to time. His willingness to run inside – especially for a player converting from quarterback in college – has particularly impressed me and leads me to believe he will be Jones-Drew’s backup sooner than later.

Next: Non-PPR Big Board

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.