A d v e r t i s e m e n t
One of the risks we run in fantasy football is not being 100%
sure the changes we make are good decisions. When it comes to
ranking players during the preseason, when are our eyes telling
us the truth and when are they deceiving us?
Some changes occur in the rankings simply because they have to
(injuries), others take place because a coach or general manager
sheds a bit of light on his team’s depth chart and still
others happen when one player is simply a much better player than
the version we remember from the previous year. After watching
as much football as I have over the years, I have learned to simply
look for players who look like they don’t belong –
good and bad – over the first two full weeks of the preseason
or are quicker/faster/stronger/lighter than they were last season.
Since the third week of the preseason is the only one in which
coaches actually exercise their game-planning muscles, it is almost
pointless to make a big deal about what we see outside of what
I have already mentioned because coaches on both sides of the
ball are using base looks almost exclusively. Even in the upcoming
all-important third week, preseason football provides very little
in the way of context. (Will the offense feature a certain player
or is the defense he is going against any good?)
Fantasy football veterans understand the volatility of the market
this time of year, which goes a long way in explaining why so
many adjustments need to be made in such a short amount of time.
Sometimes, my Big Board will change simply because I have taken
another week to collect information to strengthen my case for
one set of players. In other situations, I saw what I needed to
see from a player in the preseason or simply had a change of heart
about his situation that allowed me to move him. But more than
anything, taking another seven days to reassess the fantasy landscape
sometimes is enough to lead to a makeover of the Big Board.
In an effort to make sure I am not affected by last
week’s rankings, I start from scratch each week once
I finish a Big Board (only referring to the “old”
one when I refer to how much a player’s stock has increased/decreased).
And don’t think for a second that my Big Boards stay the
same once I have submitted the third and final one. Breaking news
and other information obtained in the minutes and hours prior
to a draft – and sometimes even during a draft – can
lead to a shift in thinking. While that may seem a bit extreme,
the truth is that owners cannot always take a day to collect their
thoughts about how they feel about a season-ending injury, change
in job status, trade or free agent pickup that just happens to
occur as your league is having its draft.
Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value
when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify
it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value"
using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB,
three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples
and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB, the value reflects the standard
deviation from the 24th-ranked player at the position and, at
WR, the 36th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times before
over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has
to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't
hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding
the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass
up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week
1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great
drafters from the very good ones.
Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting
up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense
has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example
of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him
the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge
advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot
account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost”
– the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when
one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass
on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value
also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running
back after the established top options are drafted, usually by
the end of the first round or early in the second. Smart drafting
also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not
nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots
in 12-team leagues, but there are usually at least 36 receivers
around the league that are worthy fantasy starters.
Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
a few key points about the Big Boards:
1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you
see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on
projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point
total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the
so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers.
Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points
at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's
not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my
RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds
during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may
end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my
board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. I will put more stock into this area
in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down
each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t
follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average
and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my
rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down
my board – despite a higher average or overall point total
– if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear
risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to
holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a 
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will
see a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
Note: At least
for this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 150
players. Next week, I will add the kickers and defenses while
also expanding the number of ranked players. In the final set
of Big Boards in two weeks, I will add even more players.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below
***In addition to discussing value above, there is one other note
regarding the numbers in the “value” column: numbers
that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers
are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined,
the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while
the latter values are on the left side.)
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:
One final note: Over the next
week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections
(basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one
defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just
five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different
– particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they
currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process
takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information
about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can
assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the
most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.
Top 25: McCoy is one of my most
favorite players to watch, so it pained me to label him as a second-round
value last week. My concerns had nothing to do with last year’s
concussion and everything to do with the supposed leader in the
quarterback clubhouse during offseason practices (Nick Foles). As
it becomes clearer that Michael Vick should be separating himself
from Foles, it is now safe to anticipate those cutback lanes that
mobile quarterbacks often create for their backs (when the weakside
linebacker cannot crash in without worry the quarterback will burn
him) should leave gaping holes for McCoy behind the Eagles’
athletic offensive line. Furthermore, HC Chip Kelly’s breakneck
offense should allow McCoy to easily get his 18-20 carries/week,
which should enable him to return to the weekly 100 yards per game
threat he has been for several years. Bryce Brown should still see
a healthy amount of carries, but he’s not a threat to the
job. It’s unclear how much the backs will be used in the passing
game, but I would expect the Eagles to match or exceed the Patriots’
league-record 1,191 plays from last season (74.4/game). Assuming
a fairly equal run-pass ratio, McCoy is in line for a huge rushing
workload.
Graham and Rodgers lost some ground in terms of their “value”
and dropped a bit in my rankings from last week, but they would
have fallen a bit even if I hadn’t tweaked their projections.
This is not to say neither player isn’t worth taking a few
spots higher, but rather I cannot defend taking a tight end or
a quarterback who should have two other players (Brees and Manning)
push him for the top spot at his position ahead of a pretty solid
RB1. When you consider that even an owner drafting at the turn
could conceivably come away with two 1,500+ yard rushers from
a season ago in Lynch and Morris, there is no reason not to square
that position away immediately. It is also possible the worst
anyone should do at that spot is Forte and Jackson, even if owners
aren’t as high on someone like either player as I am. Thus,
the possibility exists than an owner can select two players capable
of rushing for well over 1,000 yards and catching 50+ passes.
I cannot honestly remember the last time I felt as good as I do
this year about picking in the 11 or 12 spot. With that said,
I’ll take the last spot in the first round that will allow
me to land Sproles or Jones-Drew in the second.
26-50: There seems to be an
awful lot of Daniel Thomas smoke coming out of Miami for a starting
job that Lamar Miller was supposed to have locked up this offseason.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland and HC Joe Philbin have repeatedly trumpeted
Thomas as a “breakout player” or expressed their pleasure
with the way he has performed in the offseason and preseason.
The Palm Beach Post also suggested recently Thomas would assume
the goal-line and third-down back duties. Some of this –
as we know – can be assigned to the tried-and-true method
of motivating the starter by talking up the backup, but Thomas
has shown a bit of a spring in his step this preseason and it
is not out of the question that Thomas won’t be the poor
man’s Andre Brown to Miller’s poor man David Wilson.
Few would argue that Miller is a better talent than Thomas, but
sometimes these battles are decided off the field by front office
agendas and the like. It would be one thing if Miami had a dominant
rushing attack or elite run-blocking line, but any threat to Miller’s
consistent 15-20 touch/game workload is reason enough to move
him down into low-end RB2 consideration.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Monday that “it is
unrealistic” to expect Gronkowski for Week 1, making it
possible that he still winds up on the reserve/PUP list and misses
the first six weeks of the season. At this point, Gronkowski is
more of a week-to-week consideration that we should expect to
miss most of the first month of the season and work his way back
into playing shape over the following 2-3 weeks. Assuming the
numerous forearm surgeries are no longer an issue, there is still
the small matter of not aggravating the back injury. Four missed
games is the breakeven point for me if I am considering him with
a pick in the first five rounds, so any reports that surface over
the next week about an absence that extends past a month probably
drops him down another two rounds. His indefinite return is also
the reason I also can’t rank Zach Sudfeld because if Gronkowski
only misses two weeks, it seems unlikely the undrafted rookie
free agent’s impact will be such that he ends up with more
fantasy value than a player like Ed Dickson or Tyler Eifert. That
is not to say Sudfeld will disappear from the offense, but it
makes sense that it will be Shane Vereen playing the role of Aaron
Hernandez more than Sudfeld, who is 6-7 and 253 pounds.
51-100: One example of how
my rankings were a bit ahead of my projections last week (since
updated) was Brady, who shoots up five spots overall in the rankings
and four places at his position. It seems next to impossible to
believe that Brady will remain a top-five quarterback given the
losses of Welker and Hernandez as well as the indefinite return
of Gronkowski, so I can assure readers he will not move up any
further on my quarterback rankings. It’s also unlikely that
he falls out of the top 10 either unless Amendola is lost for
a long period of time and Gronkowski cannot come back this season
(both of which are possible given their respective injury histories,
but doubtful to happen concurrently). While Brady lacks the all-around
contributions of Kaepernick and Wilson, the Patriots will almost
certainly roll off more plays and throw more often than the 49ers
and Seahawks – not to mention play in a less threatening
division. Nevertheless, there are nine quarterbacks I’m
happy to call solid QB1’s this season, with the Brady-Kaepernick-Wilson
grouping rounding out the bottom of that list. (There are also
10 additional QBs I’m willing to start on a matchup basis,
further strengthening the argument owners can wait on the position
this season.)
Unfortunately, not everyone’s arrow can be pointing up
at this point of the preseason. Several running backs took a tumble
of varying degrees over the past week, including Ball. Denver’s
second-round rookie still could establish himself as the clear
lead-back in Denver sometime early in the season, but I’m
becoming less and less optimistic about Denver’s running
game given a number of factors, not the least of which is the
number of injuries on the offensive line. Hillman fumbled at the
goal line in the team’s preseason loss to Seattle, but appears
to have at least a slight lead on Ball (who blew a blitz pickup
that led to Manning getting hit). Further consider the overwhelming
talent the Broncos have in the passing game and it becomes less
likely Ball is going to have an early impact in fantasy. Speaking
of muddled backfields, it is hard for fantasy owners to throw
a lot of support behind either Wilson or Andre Brown. Brown seems
to remain the clear choice for goal-line duties while Wilson is
the superior between-the-20s option. It would be accurate to say
this remains a fluid situation, particularly if either player
fumbles the rest of the preseason. Wilson gets the nod here given
his gamebreaking talent and the lack of serious injuries in his
injury history, but a compelling argument can be made that Brown
should go earlier. Both players would make fine flex plays, but
highly inconsistent RB2 options.
101-175: In the PPR section,
I hinted there were some Philadelphia players I expect will see
their stock rise in light of the supposed clarity at quarterback
and Jeremy Maclin’s injury. The most obvious would be the
winner of the quarterback race himself, Vick. While I don’t
get the sense that Kelly wants his any of his quarterbacks running
all that much at this level, he wants defenses to fear it just
enough in order to give McCoy as much space as possible. Vick
has never required a lot of rushing attempts in order to gain
yards, so when 30-40 rushing yards are combined with the high
volume of plays he will run, it isn’t hard to see where
Vick could be a fantasy QB1 every week he is healthy – which
is the only reason why he is as low in the QB2 ranks as he is.
The other Philadelphia player to discuss is Avant, who Vick trusts
as much as any Eagles’ receiver. Riley Cooper may end up
being named the starter, but he is a much stronger blocker than
receiver. Avant has caught 51-53 passes over the last three seasons
in an offense that featured Jackson and Maclin and did not move
at near the pace Kelly’s offense will. He doesn’t
have much touchdown upside, but a career year across the board
is also not out of the question.
One of my biggest fallers from last week is Bennett, who is the
most likely of the four main pass-receivers in Chicago to be forgotten
from time to time. While I still expect Cutler to push his career
highs in a number of categories, his first, second and third read
still appears to be Marshall in the intermediate or deep passing
game. (On two of Cutler’s five throws – his touchdown
and his interception – against the Chargers, Marshall was
his only read in the 3-5 seconds he had the ball in the pocket.)
While I do expect HC Marc Trestman to coach Cutler out of his
heavy reliance on Marshall, it may take some time – time
that redraft owners do not have. I do expect Bennett to play a
big role in the Bears’ red-zone offense, however, so it’s
not all doom and gloom for him.
Next: Big
Board: Ks & D/STs 
Suggestions, comments, about the article or
fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past
season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on
Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The
Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. |
