In a little over 1 1/2 months and near the midpoint of the fantasy
regular season, the NFL has lost his best quarterback (Aaron Rodgers),
arguably its best running back (David Johnson), most flamboyant
if not dynamic receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) and arguably it most
dominant defensive player (J.J. Watt).
Fantasy owners, listen to me: It's going to be all right.
We are going to get through this.
It's not ideal, far from ideal in fact. The product suffers as
a whole, and that isn't good for anybody. With that said, football
is a brutal sport. Few players can and/or will avoid a serious
injury season after season.
As it relates to the most recent loss, the absence of Rodgers
may be the easiest of the aforementioned players to overcome for
fantasy owners, although that optimistic point of view may feel
like the difference between told you only have to climb the Nanda
Devi (the 23rd-tallest mountain in the world) as opposed of Mount
Everest (the tallest mountain in the world) to anyone trying to
pick up the pieces in the wake of Rodgers' likely season-ending
collarbone injury. While Rodgers is the best at what he does and
his loss will undoubtedly set his fantasy teams back, the majority
of leagues should have at least a capable replacement on the waiver
wire. Players such as Tyrod Taylor (favorable schedule the rest
of the way) and Jacoby Brissett may not come close to replacing
Rodgers, but they can buy owners some time. In some cases, Derek
Carr or Andy Dalton can even be had.
In most cases, trading for a new starter is going to be the best
option for any past/current Rodgers owners who still have a shot
to make a run. Such is/was the case in one of my many leagues,
where I was one of two or three owners with two quarterbacks on
my roster who should be starting every week. It didn't take very
long for me to find a Rodgers owner in and strike up a conversation
about how I could alleviate my QB depth "problem" (I
started the lower-scoring quarterback in each of the first four
weeks before getting it right the last two) in order to fix my
running back problem.
More than any year I can remember - or maybe it's just because
all but one of my teams has a quarterback I can trust every week
- the 2017 season is one in which an owner can probably overcome
the loss of Rodgers if he/she was able to build some depth at
other positions. And, of course, that assumes the Rodgers owner
didn't draft a quality backup or land one along the way, which
many of the owners in my leagues did. Losing the likes of Johnson
and Beckham will probably knock 90 percent of their owners from
the championship chase. The same should not be true for Rodgers.
*****************
Around the midpoint of each fantasy season, I feel it is helpful
for daily and traditional fantasy owners to have a tool at their
disposal that simplifies the "matchup question." While
the FFToday
Points Allowed page does a fine job of providing a macro view
of how each defense has done against each position over the course
of the season, the wealth of information can almost be too much
to absorb when trying to make a smart yet efficient choice, especially
across multiple leagues.
This week, I calculated each team's weekly output by position
and sorted them. What follows is each team's rank against that
position for that week. For example, the Patriots have finished
first, fifth, 15th, second, 11th and sixth in terms of most fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks. The "Avg finish" column
is just what it says it is. Using the same example, quarterbacks
facing New England have finished that week around seventh place
on average. I believe looking at matchups this way is a quick
yet useful way to approach lineup decisions. From there, it is
up to the owner to determine if that weekly rank was a bit of
a fluke, due to a poor/great matchup or the result of any other
number of factors. There is not enough time in a week for most
analysts to get to all the reasons something could have happened,
especially when the teams and/or coaches typically don't know
themselves until weeks later, if even then.
Even though six weeks still makes for a relatively small sample
size, the beauty of the charts below is that owners can easily
spot trends and begin to ask more intelligent questions. In a
lot of respects, that is one of my primary responsibilities as
an analyst: allowing you to help yourself.
Note: Each table is sorted from lowest to
highest in the "Avg Finish" column. Just so we are clear,
the smaller the number in each column, the more advantageous that
matchup was for the position group.
Let's get to it:
Weekly Rank for D/STs
vs. QBs
Team
1
2
3
4
5
6
Avg. Finish
Patriots
1
5
15
2
11
6
6.7
Browns
11
12
7
3
15
4
8.7
Bucs
bye
27
3
5
18
5
11.6
Colts
15
14
12
7
8
14
11.7
49ers
17
16
9
15
13
1
11.8
Cardinals
2
26
14
23
4
2
11.8
Giants
12
17
24
4
7
10
12.3
Cowboys
27
2
13
14
6
bye
12.4
Eagles
20
13
10
12
14
7
12.7
Jets
6
4
27
21
9
9
12.7
Titans
7
28
2
1
24
15
12.8
Saints
3
1
28
31
bye
8
14.2
Raiders
13
10
4
22
25
13
14.5
Chiefs
23
3
32
10
1
20
14.8
Broncos
5
9
17
20
bye
24
15.0
Panthers
30
29
11
11
12
3
16.0
Falcons
19
6
20
19
bye
16
16.0
Redskins
8
25
30
8
bye
12
16.6
Ravens
25
7
8
18
20
22
16.7
Chargers
4
19
21
16
16
26
17.0
Rams
29
23
6
9
19
18
17.3
Texans
21
30
1
26
3
25
17.7
Dolphins
bye
11
23
13
22
21
18.0
Bears
10
21
26
6
17
28
18.0
Bills
18
22
25
17
10
bye
18.4
Packers
26
18
18
29
2
19
18.7
Bengals
24
15
5
30
21
bye
19.0
Lions
22
24
22
27
5
17
19.5
Vikings
16
8
19
28
23
27
20.2
Steelers
9
31
29
25
27
11
22.0
Seahawks
14
32
16
24
26
bye
22.4
Jaguars
28
20
31
32
28
23
27.0
Teams to target (defenses whose average
finish is 12th or higher): Patriots, Browns, Bucs, Colts,
49ers and Cardinals
Teams to avoid (defenses whose average
finish is 20th or lower): Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks and
Jaguars
Of note: Per Pro Football Focus,
the Patriots rank third in the league in terms of utilizing man-to-man
coverage at 49 percent. One of the reasons I'm sure they sought
out CB Stephon Gilmore as a free agent was for the ability he
showed early in his career pressing receivers at the line of scrimmage.
His addition to a group of cornerbacks that already included Malcolm Butler and Eric Rowe was supposed to put this defense - which
ranked 10th last season in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks - over the top. It goes without saying that hasn't
come close to happening, as no defense has been more accommodating
in 2017 so far. Surprisingly, New England was without Gilmore
(concussion) and Rowe (groin) in Week 6 and enjoyed one of its
best performances (strictly from a fantasy-point total standpoint)
of the season, albeit against Josh McCown.
Again per PFF, the Browns utilize man coverage only 27.4 percent
of the time (24th in the league). Like the Patriots, they haven't
held up very well when doing it, as only New England has surrendered
more touchdown throws than Cleveland has when playing man (six).
Unlike the Patriots, the Browns are getting stellar play from
one of their cornerbacks (Jason McCourty), who has earned PFF's
highest coverage grade so far. (As proof of how stout McCourty
has been, A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins have combined for four
catches for 50 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. He chase
both wideouts at least 87.1 percent of their snaps in their matchups.)
Of the five teams in the "target" bunch above, the
Bucs are the one who could easily get out of it quickly. It's
worth noting the one time this season when it was healthy, Tampa
Bay's defense absolutely shut down the same Chicago offense that
Baltimore and Pittsburgh could not despite the fact the Bears
have shown little ability or desire to throw the ball. LBs Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David have missed significant amounts of
time, while CB Vernon Hargreaves has yet to live up to his first-round
draft status in 2016. As is the case with the two teams above,
quarterback streamers can target the Bucs for now. However, they
need to be aware the river of fantasy points that has been flowing
through the Tampa Bay defense could stop at the very moment the
Bucs get healthy.
Most veteran fantasy owners know what the presence of Patrick
Peterson means for their No. 1 wideout. He's not the problem in
Arizona. Justin Bethel is. Considering the Cardinals' best alternative
outside of sticking with him is to turn to 34-year-old Tramon Williams, it's safe to say owners need to be targeting No. 2 receivers
- slot or outside - every week they see Arizona on the schedule.
NOTE: Regarding the
earlier percentages I mentioned above, I think it worth reinforcing
even the teams that utilize the most man coverage in the NFL typically
play it no more than 50 percent of the time. (Such has been the
case for several years at the very least.) In fact, the Chiefs
(63.5 percent) are the only team through six weeks playing it
more than half the time. Shadow coverage can and does occur in
zones. I'm not sure this is a point that gets made enough by analysts
- real or fantasy - and it can lead to frustration for owners
if they don't understand/recognize it.
Teams to target (defenses whose average
finish is 12th or higher): 49ers, Rams, Patriots, Jets
and Colts
Teams to avoid (defenses whose average
finish is 20th or lower): Bills, Texans, Vikings and Broncos
Of note: The Rams can be forgiven
for being on this list despite the plethora of first-round picks
that reside on their defensive line, as Los Angeles is adjusting
to running a 3-4 defense for the first time in years. Aaron Donald
also didn't have a training camp or preseason to learn DC Wade
Phillips' system. As such, the Rams should be expected to improve
and move out of this group as the season continues. That still
doesn't excuse how much they have struggled, however, as they
should be able to do better than they have (4.7 YPC to running
backs).
The 49ers and Patriots lead the league in most receptions, most
receiving yards and most receiving touchdowns (tied with two others)
allowed to running backs, which is yet another reason why they
find themselves on the "target" list. San Francisco
has actually played up to its talent up front in terms of stopping
the run (3.6 YPC to running backs), while New England has not
(4.7). Three running backs have caught at least five passes versus
the 49ers, while two backs have exceeded 89 receiving yards. San
Francisco plays some type of zone coverage 72.7 percent of the
time (per PFF) - a number that shouldn't be terribly surprising
when we consider their defense coordinator (Robert Saleh) spent
the last six seasons either on Pete Carroll's staff (or on the
staff of one of his protégés). In case I lost you
there, while Seattle plays uses man coverage more than most realize
(47.9 percent so far this season), Carroll's Seahawk teams still
rely heavily on Cover 3. Part of the Patriots' ineptitude thus
far comes from the season-ending injury to DT Vincent Valentine
and lackluster play of DT Alan Branch, whose play has fallen off
considerably after doing enough in 2016 to earn a contract extension
in the offseason.
Back in 2014, then-DC Jim Schwartz guided the Bills to a fourth-place
finishes in total defense and scoring defense running a 4-3 front.
HC Rex Ryan foolishly decided his way of doing things was better
and forced his multiple-front system on Buffalo instead of adjusting
to his personnel. Here we are in 2017 with new HC Sean McDermott's
4-3 zone-based scheme and the Bills are among the best in defense
again. McDermott's track record suggests Buffalo's strong start
is not a fluke, while its offense does the best it can to limit
possessions and keep the defense fresh despite limited personnel.
Prior to their Week 6 meltdown in which they surrendered 148
rushing yards (to RBs) to a previously hapless Giants rushing
attack, the Broncos had yielded a total of 167 yards to running
backs over their first four games. While New York undoubtedly
played its best game of the year, no one should be mistaking Orleans Darkwa for Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott or LeSean McCoy - three
of the backs Denver shut down prior to the bye. Even with that
dreadful performance in Week 6, Denver has yet to surrender a
rushing touchdown to a running back and is giving up a stellar
3.1 YPC to the position.
Teams to target (defenses whose average
finish is 12th or higher): Bucs, Patriots, Eagles, Colts,
Cowboys, Chiefs and Cardinals
Teams to avoid (defenses whose average
finish is 20th or lower): Texans, Redskins, Ravens, Jaguars,
Steelers and Bengals
Of note: We've already spent some
time on the Bucs, Patriots and Cardinals, while the Colts (offseason
facelift, Vontae Davis in decline) and Cowboys (injuries, rookies
playing a substantial role in the secondary) are hardly surprising
entries on the "target" list. The one outlier here appears
to be the Chiefs, due somewhat in part to the fact they faced
the Texans in a shootout two weeks ago and just got done with
Antonio Brown, who took advantage of a fluky touchdown catch to
amass half of his PPR fantasy point total for the week. Prior
to surrendering 55.3 PPR fantasy points to Houston and 40.4 to
Pittsburgh, Kansas City was holding opposing receivers to a 32.6
fantasy-point team average - a mark that would rank somewhere
in the middle of the pack. Expect Kansas City to be a bit more
stout moving forward.
Whereas the Chiefs may only be slightly better than their current
standing, owners should take advantage of the Eagles while they
still can. Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills have been getting roasted
on the outside while Patrick Robinson owns PFF's second-highest
coverage grade working mostly in the slot. Hard-core Eagles fans
are likely counting the days until Ronald Darby and second-round
Sidney Jones are patrolling the hashes, however, because if the
former is able to recapture his pre-injury play from this season
and the latter is able to quickly integrate himself into the NFL
after flashing first-round potential at the University of Washington,
Philadelphia could have one of the league's nastiest defenses
by late November or December.
It is rather remarkable the Texans find themselves on the "avoid"
list, if only because they seem to add and subtract a new defensive
back to the roster every week, CB Kevin Johnson has been sidelined
since Week 2, Johnathan Joseph is 33 years old and Kareem Jackson
has not been good. Yet, rookie DC Mike Vrabel's unit has only
allowed two receivers to top 11.7 PPR points - Brandin Cooks (30.1)
and Chris Hogan (22.8). In fact, A.J. Green (11.7), Alex Erickson
(10.4) and Tyreek Hill (10.8) are the only other receivers to
reach double figures. Even more impressive, no receiver has caught
more than five passes against Houston. So whether we can explain
it or not, owners may want to steer clear of the Texans when it
comes to their secondary options at receiver.
Last week, Robert Woods became the first receiver this season
to reach 10 PPR fantasy points against Jacksonville on fewer than
10 targets. Prior to Woods doing so, Antonio Brown (25.7 points
on 19 targets) and DeAndre Hopkins (18.5, 16) were the only other
wideouts to reach double figures. In case you needed another reminder
why you should avoid the Jaguars when it comes to your non-elite
receivers, now you have one.
From the "figures don’t lie, but liars figure"
department, the Steelers are the NFL's stingiest unit when it
comes to opposing receivers. Or are they? They faced Cleveland,
Minnesota (in Case Keenum's first start), Chicago, Baltimore and
Jacksonville over the first five games before meeting Kansas City
last week. That's not to suggest Pittsburgh hasn't taken care
of business against its opponents, but you'd be hard-pressed to
find another team that has faced such an easy slate when it comes
to teams that either can't pass well or don't put much effort
into doing so. We need more evidence before putting this defense
in the same class as Jacksonville.
Teams to target (defenses whose average
finish is 12th or higher): Giants, Browns, Patriots, Redskins
and Broncos
Teams to avoid (defenses whose average
finish is 20th or lower): Packers, Chargers, 49ers and
Bengals
Of note: A few of the "target"
teams are fairly easy to explain. Even in what has been a bit
of a disappointing year for the Giants' cornerbacks, New York
is a team that plays a ton of zone (70.7 percent, per PFF) and
invites throws over the middle of the field, which is a combination
that tends to lead to a lot of volume for tight ends (38 receptions,
second-most in the NFL). The approach doesn't appear to change
in the red zone, as every opponent has put at least one of its
tight ends into the end zone against New York.
The Browns rank behind the Giants how often they utilize man
coverage but lack the safety play New York has. Unsurprisingly,
five tight ends have attracted at least seven targets against
Cleveland and two of them (Jesse James and Tyler Kroft) have scored
two touchdowns apiece. Much like the Giants, expect tight ends
to continue hammering Cleveland until a philosophical change is
made.
Washington desperately wanted Su'a Cravens to be this year's
answer to its problem against tight ends in 2016. He is taking
the year off to attend to undisclosed issues and also has a long
and problematic injury history. Opponents have taken advantage
of his absence, as George Kittle (8.6) was the first "lead"
tight end not to score at least 12.5 PPR fantasy points this year.
Three tight ends have seen eight targets, and Kittle was the first
one not to catch at least seven of them. (Give the kid a break,
his starting quarterback was pulled before halftime.) In addition,
three tight ends have piled up at least 93 yards receiving, which
is almost unheard of at a position where owners hope for touchdowns
and often treat yards as a bit of a bonus.
There is a long stretch of time a few years ago in which owners
could stream their tight end against the Chargers. That time is
not now, as Zach Ertz (13.1) is the only tight end to score more
than 6.4 PPR fantasy points against Los Angeles. Travis Kelce
(1.1) and Evan Engram (0) are among the high-end tight ends who
have fallen victim.
The 49ers have been stingy against the "name" tight
ends they have faced (Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham and Jordan Reed),
but injuries and circumstance likely hurt each of those players
more than anything. Over the next two weeks, they will face Jason Witten and Ertz, which should give us all the information we need
to determine if San Francisco is for real defending tight ends.
The linebacker/safety personnel is legit, so I think the Niners'
success against the position is for real. However, the cornerback
play is bad enough that opponents may be targeting the perimeter
instead.
Cincinnati's appearance on the "avoid" list appears
to be a bit of an anomaly. Charles Clay is the only tight end
of note the Bengals have faced, and he was hurt early in their
Week 5 meeting. Nick O'Leary picked up the torch and gouged Cincinnati
for 10.4 PPR fantasy points following Clay's exit.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.