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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Sizing up the Competition - 2017 Edition
All Out Blitz: Volume 126
10/19/17

In a little over 1 1/2 months and near the midpoint of the fantasy regular season, the NFL has lost his best quarterback (Aaron Rodgers), arguably its best running back (David Johnson), most flamboyant if not dynamic receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) and arguably it most dominant defensive player (J.J. Watt).

Fantasy owners, listen to me: It's going to be all right. We are going to get through this.

It's not ideal, far from ideal in fact. The product suffers as a whole, and that isn't good for anybody. With that said, football is a brutal sport. Few players can and/or will avoid a serious injury season after season.

As it relates to the most recent loss, the absence of Rodgers may be the easiest of the aforementioned players to overcome for fantasy owners, although that optimistic point of view may feel like the difference between told you only have to climb the Nanda Devi (the 23rd-tallest mountain in the world) as opposed of Mount Everest (the tallest mountain in the world) to anyone trying to pick up the pieces in the wake of Rodgers' likely season-ending collarbone injury. While Rodgers is the best at what he does and his loss will undoubtedly set his fantasy teams back, the majority of leagues should have at least a capable replacement on the waiver wire. Players such as Tyrod Taylor (favorable schedule the rest of the way) and Jacoby Brissett may not come close to replacing Rodgers, but they can buy owners some time. In some cases, Derek Carr or Andy Dalton can even be had.

In most cases, trading for a new starter is going to be the best option for any past/current Rodgers owners who still have a shot to make a run. Such is/was the case in one of my many leagues, where I was one of two or three owners with two quarterbacks on my roster who should be starting every week. It didn't take very long for me to find a Rodgers owner in and strike up a conversation about how I could alleviate my QB depth "problem" (I started the lower-scoring quarterback in each of the first four weeks before getting it right the last two) in order to fix my running back problem.

More than any year I can remember - or maybe it's just because all but one of my teams has a quarterback I can trust every week - the 2017 season is one in which an owner can probably overcome the loss of Rodgers if he/she was able to build some depth at other positions. And, of course, that assumes the Rodgers owner didn't draft a quality backup or land one along the way, which many of the owners in my leagues did. Losing the likes of Johnson and Beckham will probably knock 90 percent of their owners from the championship chase. The same should not be true for Rodgers.

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Around the midpoint of each fantasy season, I feel it is helpful for daily and traditional fantasy owners to have a tool at their disposal that simplifies the "matchup question." While the FFToday Points Allowed page does a fine job of providing a macro view of how each defense has done against each position over the course of the season, the wealth of information can almost be too much to absorb when trying to make a smart yet efficient choice, especially across multiple leagues.

This week, I calculated each team's weekly output by position and sorted them. What follows is each team's rank against that position for that week. For example, the Patriots have finished first, fifth, 15th, second, 11th and sixth in terms of most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The "Avg finish" column is just what it says it is. Using the same example, quarterbacks facing New England have finished that week around seventh place on average. I believe looking at matchups this way is a quick yet useful way to approach lineup decisions. From there, it is up to the owner to determine if that weekly rank was a bit of a fluke, due to a poor/great matchup or the result of any other number of factors. There is not enough time in a week for most analysts to get to all the reasons something could have happened, especially when the teams and/or coaches typically don't know themselves until weeks later, if even then.

Even though six weeks still makes for a relatively small sample size, the beauty of the charts below is that owners can easily spot trends and begin to ask more intelligent questions. In a lot of respects, that is one of my primary responsibilities as an analyst: allowing you to help yourself.

Note: Each table is sorted from lowest to highest in the "Avg Finish" column. Just so we are clear, the smaller the number in each column, the more advantageous that matchup was for the position group.

Let's get to it:

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. QBs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 Avg. Finish
Patriots 1 5 15 2 11 6 6.7
Browns 11 12 7 3 15 4 8.7
Bucs bye 27 3 5 18 5 11.6
Colts 15 14 12 7 8 14 11.7
49ers 17 16 9 15 13 1 11.8
Cardinals 2 26 14 23 4 2 11.8
Giants 12 17 24 4 7 10 12.3
Cowboys 27 2 13 14 6 bye 12.4
Eagles 20 13 10 12 14 7 12.7
Jets 6 4 27 21 9 9 12.7
Titans 7 28 2 1 24 15 12.8
Saints 3 1 28 31 bye 8 14.2
Raiders 13 10 4 22 25 13 14.5
Chiefs 23 3 32 10 1 20 14.8
Broncos 5 9 17 20 bye 24 15.0
Panthers 30 29 11 11 12 3 16.0
Falcons 19 6 20 19 bye 16 16.0
Redskins 8 25 30 8 bye 12 16.6
Ravens 25 7 8 18 20 22 16.7
Chargers 4 19 21 16 16 26 17.0
Rams 29 23 6 9 19 18 17.3
Texans 21 30 1 26 3 25 17.7
Dolphins bye 11 23 13 22 21 18.0
Bears 10 21 26 6 17 28 18.0
Bills 18 22 25 17 10 bye 18.4
Packers 26 18 18 29 2 19 18.7
Bengals 24 15 5 30 21 bye 19.0
Lions 22 24 22 27 5 17 19.5
Vikings 16 8 19 28 23 27 20.2
Steelers 9 31 29 25 27 11 22.0
Seahawks 14 32 16 24 26 bye 22.4
Jaguars 28 20 31 32 28 23 27.0

Teams to target (defenses whose average finish is 12th or higher): Patriots, Browns, Bucs, Colts, 49ers and Cardinals

Teams to avoid (defenses whose average finish is 20th or lower): Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks and Jaguars

Of note: Per Pro Football Focus, the Patriots rank third in the league in terms of utilizing man-to-man coverage at 49 percent. One of the reasons I'm sure they sought out CB Stephon Gilmore as a free agent was for the ability he showed early in his career pressing receivers at the line of scrimmage. His addition to a group of cornerbacks that already included Malcolm Butler and Eric Rowe was supposed to put this defense - which ranked 10th last season in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks - over the top. It goes without saying that hasn't come close to happening, as no defense has been more accommodating in 2017 so far. Surprisingly, New England was without Gilmore (concussion) and Rowe (groin) in Week 6 and enjoyed one of its best performances (strictly from a fantasy-point total standpoint) of the season, albeit against Josh McCown.

Again per PFF, the Browns utilize man coverage only 27.4 percent of the time (24th in the league). Like the Patriots, they haven't held up very well when doing it, as only New England has surrendered more touchdown throws than Cleveland has when playing man (six). Unlike the Patriots, the Browns are getting stellar play from one of their cornerbacks (Jason McCourty), who has earned PFF's highest coverage grade so far. (As proof of how stout McCourty has been, A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins have combined for four catches for 50 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. He chase both wideouts at least 87.1 percent of their snaps in their matchups.)

Of the five teams in the "target" bunch above, the Bucs are the one who could easily get out of it quickly. It's worth noting the one time this season when it was healthy, Tampa Bay's defense absolutely shut down the same Chicago offense that Baltimore and Pittsburgh could not despite the fact the Bears have shown little ability or desire to throw the ball. LBs Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David have missed significant amounts of time, while CB Vernon Hargreaves has yet to live up to his first-round draft status in 2016. As is the case with the two teams above, quarterback streamers can target the Bucs for now. However, they need to be aware the river of fantasy points that has been flowing through the Tampa Bay defense could stop at the very moment the Bucs get healthy.

Most veteran fantasy owners know what the presence of Patrick Peterson means for their No. 1 wideout. He's not the problem in Arizona. Justin Bethel is. Considering the Cardinals' best alternative outside of sticking with him is to turn to 34-year-old Tramon Williams, it's safe to say owners need to be targeting No. 2 receivers - slot or outside - every week they see Arizona on the schedule.

NOTE: Regarding the earlier percentages I mentioned above, I think it worth reinforcing even the teams that utilize the most man coverage in the NFL typically play it no more than 50 percent of the time. (Such has been the case for several years at the very least.) In fact, the Chiefs (63.5 percent) are the only team through six weeks playing it more than half the time. Shadow coverage can and does occur in zones. I'm not sure this is a point that gets made enough by analysts - real or fantasy - and it can lead to frustration for owners if they don't understand/recognize it.

Quarterbacks with mostly favorable schedules moving forward (in no particular order): Tyrod Taylor, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Trevor Siemian, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford/Case Keenum/Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. RBs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 Avg. Finish
49ers 8 19 3 12 5 5 8.7
Rams 19 2 6 3 22 1 8.8
Patriots 1 13 18 14 8 10 10.7
Jets 4 3 31 9 9 13 11.5
Colts 6 30 10 10 11 3 11.7
Lions 9 21 5 28 12 2 12.8
Cowboys 16 4 24 5 16 bye 13.0
Raiders 28 17 2 19 10 4 13.3
Bucs bye 26 7 21 7 9 14.0
Ravens 24 23 4 4 21 11 14.5
Falcons 2 7 19 25 bye 20 14.6
Redskins 13 8 29 17 bye 6 14.6
Chargers 27 24 9 2 2 26 15.0
Packers 30 5 13 15 19 8 15.0
Saints 10 1 12 29 bye 24 15.2
Steelers 25 15 1 27 3 21 15.3
Bears 15 18 17 24 4 16 15.7
Bengals 7 16 27 16 14 bye 16.0
Giants 18 20 8 26 1 23 16.0
Jaguars 20 9 23 1 18 25 16.0
Titans 23 12 15 8 26 19 17.2
Dolphins bye 11 26 7 28 15 17.4
Cardinals 11 22 21 18 23 12 17.8
Chiefs 3 31 16 31 24 7 18.7
Eagles 21 10 28 22 17 14 18.7
Seahawks 17 14 14 23 27 bye 19.0
Browns 29 6 25 13 25 17 19.2
Panthers 22 29 11 11 15 28 19.3
Bills 26 28 20 6 20 bye 20.0
Texans 5 27 30 32 6 22 20.3
Vikings 14 25 32 20 13 27 21.8
Broncos 12 32 22 30 bye 18 22.8

Teams to target (defenses whose average finish is 12th or higher): 49ers, Rams, Patriots, Jets and Colts

Teams to avoid (defenses whose average finish is 20th or lower): Bills, Texans, Vikings and Broncos

Of note: The Rams can be forgiven for being on this list despite the plethora of first-round picks that reside on their defensive line, as Los Angeles is adjusting to running a 3-4 defense for the first time in years. Aaron Donald also didn't have a training camp or preseason to learn DC Wade Phillips' system. As such, the Rams should be expected to improve and move out of this group as the season continues. That still doesn't excuse how much they have struggled, however, as they should be able to do better than they have (4.7 YPC to running backs).

The 49ers and Patriots lead the league in most receptions, most receiving yards and most receiving touchdowns (tied with two others) allowed to running backs, which is yet another reason why they find themselves on the "target" list. San Francisco has actually played up to its talent up front in terms of stopping the run (3.6 YPC to running backs), while New England has not (4.7). Three running backs have caught at least five passes versus the 49ers, while two backs have exceeded 89 receiving yards. San Francisco plays some type of zone coverage 72.7 percent of the time (per PFF) - a number that shouldn't be terribly surprising when we consider their defense coordinator (Robert Saleh) spent the last six seasons either on Pete Carroll's staff (or on the staff of one of his protégés). In case I lost you there, while Seattle plays uses man coverage more than most realize (47.9 percent so far this season), Carroll's Seahawk teams still rely heavily on Cover 3. Part of the Patriots' ineptitude thus far comes from the season-ending injury to DT Vincent Valentine and lackluster play of DT Alan Branch, whose play has fallen off considerably after doing enough in 2016 to earn a contract extension in the offseason.

Back in 2014, then-DC Jim Schwartz guided the Bills to a fourth-place finishes in total defense and scoring defense running a 4-3 front. HC Rex Ryan foolishly decided his way of doing things was better and forced his multiple-front system on Buffalo instead of adjusting to his personnel. Here we are in 2017 with new HC Sean McDermott's 4-3 zone-based scheme and the Bills are among the best in defense again. McDermott's track record suggests Buffalo's strong start is not a fluke, while its offense does the best it can to limit possessions and keep the defense fresh despite limited personnel.

Prior to their Week 6 meltdown in which they surrendered 148 rushing yards (to RBs) to a previously hapless Giants rushing attack, the Broncos had yielded a total of 167 yards to running backs over their first four games. While New York undoubtedly played its best game of the year, no one should be mistaking Orleans Darkwa for Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott or LeSean McCoy - three of the backs Denver shut down prior to the bye. Even with that dreadful performance in Week 6, Denver has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown to a running back and is giving up a stellar 3.1 YPC to the position.

Running backs with mostly favorable schedules moving forward (in no particular order): Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller/D'Onta Foreman, Jerick McKinnon, Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara, Doug Martin (not so much great matchups as much as the absence of any very poor ones), DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. WRs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 Avg. Finish
Bucs bye 5 2 7 2 2 3.6
Patriots 4 8 21 5 13 8 9.8
Eagles 17 21 1 3 8 15 10.8
Colts 7 6 25 13 11 6 11.3
Cowboys 19 7 9 17 5 bye 11.4
Chiefs 13 10 22 16 1 7 11.5
Cardinals 1 25 17 18 7 4 12.0
Titans 5 9 12 1 22 24 12.2
Chargers 10 3 19 25 12 5 12.3
Saints 2 12 29 19 bye 1 12.6
49ers 23 13 8 4 14 18 13.3
Vikings 14 2 4 28 27 12 14.5
Packers 22 11 24 14 3 16 15.0
Lions 8 27 6 22 10 17 15.0
Dolphins bye 17 15 11 24 9 15.2
Panthers 20 32 7 6 17 10 15.3
Bills 21 18 13 24 6 bye 16.4
Bears 16 15 18 2 25 23 16.5
Broncos 6 14 27 8 bye 28 16.6
Giants 15 28 28 9 23 3 17.7
Browns 9 30 14 20 20 13 17.7
Jets 26 1 11 30 19 19 17.7
Falcons 27 4 16 31 bye 11 17.8
Rams 29 22 10 10 21 21 18.8
Raiders 11 16 23 29 9 26 19.0
Seahawks 3 31 20 27 15 bye 19.2
Texans 30 19 3 32 16 22 20.3
Redskins 12 26 30 21 bye 14 20.6
Ravens 24 20 26 15 18 27 21.7
Jaguars 25 23 31 23 4 25 21.8
Steelers 18 24 32 12 26 20 22.0
Bengals 28 29 5 26 28 bye 23.2

Teams to target (defenses whose average finish is 12th or higher): Bucs, Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Cowboys, Chiefs and Cardinals

Teams to avoid (defenses whose average finish is 20th or lower): Texans, Redskins, Ravens, Jaguars, Steelers and Bengals

Of note: We've already spent some time on the Bucs, Patriots and Cardinals, while the Colts (offseason facelift, Vontae Davis in decline) and Cowboys (injuries, rookies playing a substantial role in the secondary) are hardly surprising entries on the "target" list. The one outlier here appears to be the Chiefs, due somewhat in part to the fact they faced the Texans in a shootout two weeks ago and just got done with Antonio Brown, who took advantage of a fluky touchdown catch to amass half of his PPR fantasy point total for the week. Prior to surrendering 55.3 PPR fantasy points to Houston and 40.4 to Pittsburgh, Kansas City was holding opposing receivers to a 32.6 fantasy-point team average - a mark that would rank somewhere in the middle of the pack. Expect Kansas City to be a bit more stout moving forward.

Whereas the Chiefs may only be slightly better than their current standing, owners should take advantage of the Eagles while they still can. Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills have been getting roasted on the outside while Patrick Robinson owns PFF's second-highest coverage grade working mostly in the slot. Hard-core Eagles fans are likely counting the days until Ronald Darby and second-round Sidney Jones are patrolling the hashes, however, because if the former is able to recapture his pre-injury play from this season and the latter is able to quickly integrate himself into the NFL after flashing first-round potential at the University of Washington, Philadelphia could have one of the league's nastiest defenses by late November or December.

It is rather remarkable the Texans find themselves on the "avoid" list, if only because they seem to add and subtract a new defensive back to the roster every week, CB Kevin Johnson has been sidelined since Week 2, Johnathan Joseph is 33 years old and Kareem Jackson has not been good. Yet, rookie DC Mike Vrabel's unit has only allowed two receivers to top 11.7 PPR points - Brandin Cooks (30.1) and Chris Hogan (22.8). In fact, A.J. Green (11.7), Alex Erickson (10.4) and Tyreek Hill (10.8) are the only other receivers to reach double figures. Even more impressive, no receiver has caught more than five passes against Houston. So whether we can explain it or not, owners may want to steer clear of the Texans when it comes to their secondary options at receiver.

Last week, Robert Woods became the first receiver this season to reach 10 PPR fantasy points against Jacksonville on fewer than 10 targets. Prior to Woods doing so, Antonio Brown (25.7 points on 19 targets) and DeAndre Hopkins (18.5, 16) were the only other wideouts to reach double figures. In case you needed another reminder why you should avoid the Jaguars when it comes to your non-elite receivers, now you have one.

From the "figures don’t lie, but liars figure" department, the Steelers are the NFL's stingiest unit when it comes to opposing receivers. Or are they? They faced Cleveland, Minnesota (in Case Keenum's first start), Chicago, Baltimore and Jacksonville over the first five games before meeting Kansas City last week. That's not to suggest Pittsburgh hasn't taken care of business against its opponents, but you'd be hard-pressed to find another team that has faced such an easy slate when it comes to teams that either can't pass well or don't put much effort into doing so. We need more evidence before putting this defense in the same class as Jacksonville.

Receivers with mostly favorable schedules moving forward (in no particular order): Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu, Jordan Matthews/Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess, Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp, DeVante Parker/Jarvis Landry/Kenny Stills, Jermaine Kearse/Robby Anderson, Michael Crabtree, Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/Adam Humphries, Terrelle Pryor/Jamison Crowder/Josh Doctson

 Weekly Rank for D/STs vs. TEs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 Avg. Finish
Giants 5 12 4 1 11 9 7.0
Browns 1 4 20 2 6 13 7.7
Patriots 4 9 6 20 10 6 9.2
Redskins 3 13 11 3 bye 16 9.2
Broncos 27 3 5 17 bye 4 11.2
Dolphins bye 2 16 27 5 15 13.0
Colts 16 21 10 6 3 23 13.2
Raiders 9 29 8 7 22 7 13.7
Jets 6 18 22 32 7 1 14.3
Jaguars 12 1 12 21 21 20 14.5
Vikings 7 23 9 9 14 26 14.7
Bears 2 19 25 18 13 14 15.2
Ravens 29 8 1 26 25 3 15.3
Falcons 10 14 21 8 bye 25 15.6
Seahawks 14 28 7 15 15 bye 15.8
Panthers 20 27 23 14 8 5 16.2
Steelers 11 20 13 5 27 21 16.2
Eagles 19 6 14 12 24 22 16.2
Texans 30 22 3 24 2 17 16.3
Cardinals 28 10 30 28 1 2 16.5
Rams 21 15 15 16 9 24 16.7
Bills 15 24 17 10 19 bye 17.0
Saints 13 5 27 29 bye 12 17.2
Lions 24 7 26 25 4 18 17.3
Bucs bye 17 29 4 28 10 17.6
Titans 17 31 2 23 26 8 17.8
Chiefs 23 11 19 11 17 27 18.0
Cowboys 18 16 28 19 16 bye 19.4
Packers 22 30 18 22 18 19 21.5
Chargers 8 26 31 13 23 28 21.5
49ers 26 25 24 31 20 11 22.8
Bengals 25 32 32 30 12 bye 26.2

Teams to target (defenses whose average finish is 12th or higher): Giants, Browns, Patriots, Redskins and Broncos

Teams to avoid (defenses whose average finish is 20th or lower): Packers, Chargers, 49ers and Bengals

Of note: A few of the "target" teams are fairly easy to explain. Even in what has been a bit of a disappointing year for the Giants' cornerbacks, New York is a team that plays a ton of zone (70.7 percent, per PFF) and invites throws over the middle of the field, which is a combination that tends to lead to a lot of volume for tight ends (38 receptions, second-most in the NFL). The approach doesn't appear to change in the red zone, as every opponent has put at least one of its tight ends into the end zone against New York.

The Browns rank behind the Giants how often they utilize man coverage but lack the safety play New York has. Unsurprisingly, five tight ends have attracted at least seven targets against Cleveland and two of them (Jesse James and Tyler Kroft) have scored two touchdowns apiece. Much like the Giants, expect tight ends to continue hammering Cleveland until a philosophical change is made.

Washington desperately wanted Su'a Cravens to be this year's answer to its problem against tight ends in 2016. He is taking the year off to attend to undisclosed issues and also has a long and problematic injury history. Opponents have taken advantage of his absence, as George Kittle (8.6) was the first "lead" tight end not to score at least 12.5 PPR fantasy points this year. Three tight ends have seen eight targets, and Kittle was the first one not to catch at least seven of them. (Give the kid a break, his starting quarterback was pulled before halftime.) In addition, three tight ends have piled up at least 93 yards receiving, which is almost unheard of at a position where owners hope for touchdowns and often treat yards as a bit of a bonus.

There is a long stretch of time a few years ago in which owners could stream their tight end against the Chargers. That time is not now, as Zach Ertz (13.1) is the only tight end to score more than 6.4 PPR fantasy points against Los Angeles. Travis Kelce (1.1) and Evan Engram (0) are among the high-end tight ends who have fallen victim.

The 49ers have been stingy against the "name" tight ends they have faced (Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham and Jordan Reed), but injuries and circumstance likely hurt each of those players more than anything. Over the next two weeks, they will face Jason Witten and Ertz, which should give us all the information we need to determine if San Francisco is for real defending tight ends. The linebacker/safety personnel is legit, so I think the Niners' success against the position is for real. However, the cornerback play is bad enough that opponents may be targeting the perimeter instead.

Cincinnati's appearance on the "avoid" list appears to be a bit of an anomaly. Charles Clay is the only tight end of note the Bengals have faced, and he was hurt early in their Week 5 meeting. Nick O'Leary picked up the torch and gouged Cincinnati for 10.4 PPR fantasy points following Clay's exit.

Realistic options at tight end with mostly favorable schedules moving forward (in no particular order): Austin Hooper, Greg Olsen/Ed Dickson, Tyler Kroft, Jack Doyle, Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jared Cook


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.