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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Red Zone Report
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/11/17

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunity tends to lead to more success. That logic applies just as much - if not more so - inside the 20 than it does outside of it. Since touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football and since the majority of them are scored closer to the goal line, it only makes sense to take into account what players are getting those chances and how successful they are with them.

Red zone analysis helps owners get a sense of what teams are doing in prime scoring territory, but looking at what teams do solely inside the 20 doesn't provide the total picture. And it makes sense why: just like in basketball where the field-goal percentage goes down as the shot get progressively longer, the percentage of teams scoring a touchdown on any given play go down the further away a team is from the goal line. In keeping up with the basketball metaphor, fantasy owners aren't concerned with the first few passes that led to the shot; we want successful conversions. The point to be made here is a lot more touchdowns are scored inside the 5 and inside the 10 than between the 11 and 20.

Here is a key for the abbreviations you will see below:

Cmp – Completions
Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp % – Completion Percentage
TD – Passing Touchdown
INT – Interception
INT Rate – Interception rate (INT/attempts)

*****All data courtesy of Pro Football Reference

**** Sorted by Att Inside the 20 Quarterbacks | Runners | Receivers
 Red Zone Report - Quarterbacks
   Inside 20  Inside 10
Player Tm Cmp Att Comp% TD INT INT Rate Cmp Att Comp% TD INT INT Rate
Drew Brees NO 74 113 65.49 28 3 2.65 32 52 61.54 22 1 1.92
Aaron Rodgers GB 64 108 59.26 31 0 0.00 33 49 67.35 24 0 0.00
Philip Rivers SD 45 101 44.55 22 2 1.98 19 38 50.00 15 1 2.63
Matt Ryan ATL 62 100 62.00 23 1 1.00 28 47 59.57 17 0 0.00
Derek Carr OAK 44 92 47.83 19 1 1.09 16 43 37.21 13 0 0.00
Matthew Stafford DET 51 89 57.30 17 3 3.37 18 34 52.94 12 1 2.94
Carson Wentz PHI 42 89 47.19 12 1 1.12 13 24 54.17 9 1 4.17
Carson Palmer ARI 42 85 49.41 19 1 1.18 18 39 46.15 17 1 2.56
Kirk Cousins WAS 38 83 45.78 14 2 2.41 12 38 31.58 8 2 5.26
Sam Bradford MIN 50 78 64.10 14 1 1.28 17 31 54.84 10 1 3.23
Joe Flacco BAL 44 76 57.89 14 3 3.95 13 27 48.15 9 1 3.70
Russell Wilson SEA 30 74 40.54 15 0 0.00 10 26 38.46 9 0 0.00
Andrew Luck IND 44 72 61.11 20 0 0.00 22 37 59.46 15 0 0.00
Andy Dalton CIN 37 72 51.39 13 0 0.00 13 29 44.83 9 0 0.00
Jameis Winston TB 32 71 45.07 19 0 0.00 14 24 58.33 11 0 0.00
Blake Bortles JAC 38 67 56.72 18 2 2.99 14 23 60.87 10 1 4.35
Tom Brady NE 43 64 67.19 20 1 1.56 20 32 62.50 13 1 3.13
Alex Smith KC 29 64 45.31 11 3 4.69 14 27 51.85 8 2 7.41
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 28 64 43.75 10 6 9.38 9 24 37.50 5 2 8.33
Eli Manning NYG 35 63 55.56 17 2 3.17 12 25 48.00 10 1 4.00
Trevor Siemian DEN 28 61 45.90 10 1 1.64 15 34 44.12 8 0 0.00
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 30 60 50.00 13 2 3.33 14 29 48.28 12 1 3.45
Cam Newton CAR 22 60 36.67 11 2 3.33 8 15 53.33 7 1 6.67
Brock Osweiler HOU 28 59 47.46 11 1 1.69 12 24 50.00 7 1 4.17
Tyrod Taylor BUF 30 56 53.57 11 0 0.00 9 22 40.91 7 0 0.00
Marcus Mariota TEN 34 54 62.96 18 0 0.00 16 23 69.57 14 0 0.00
Dak Prescott DAL 29 52 55.77 14 1 1.92 11 23 47.83 9 1 4.35
Ryan Tannehill MIA 30 46 65.22 11 0 0.00 6 14 42.86 5 0 0.00
Case Keenum LAR 16 41 39.02 5 1 2.44 6 14 42.86 2 0 0.00
Colin Kaepernick SF 19 33 57.58 13 0 0.00 5 7 71.43 5 0 0.00
Matt Barkley CHI 13 31 41.94 6 3 9.68 6 18 33.33 5 1 5.56
Brian Hoyer CHI 14 30 46.67 5 0 0.00 5 11 45.45 4 0 0.00
Robert Griffin III CLE 9 22 40.91 2 1 4.55 4 9 44.44 1 0 0.00
Josh McCown CLE 10 20 50.00 4 0 0.00 2 5 40.00 2 0 0.00
Cody Kessler CLE 9 17 52.94 5 0 0.00 3 6 50.00 3 0 0.00
Blaine Gabbert SF 8 17 47.06 2 0 0.00 3 4 75.00 2 0 0.00
Matt Cassel TEN 8 17 47.06 2 0 0.00 2 3 66.67 1 0 0.00
Jared Goff LAR 7 16 43.75 4 1 6.25 3 7 42.86 3 0 0.00
Nick Foles KC 8 15 53.33 1 0 0.00 1 6 16.67 0 0 0.00
Jay Cutler CHI 8 14 57.14 3 0 0.00 1 3 33.33 0 0 0.00
Qualified QB Averages (QBs with at least 20 RZ attempts; those with less were included/excluded based on likely 2017 significance)
Inside the 20: 52.5 percent completion rate
Inside the 10: 50.6 percent completion rate

If you thought you were watching a better version of Aaron Rodgers last year than you remembered in previous years, your eyes were not deceiving you. Rodgers' TD-to-INT ratios inside the 20 (31:0) and 10 (24:0) were the best in the NFL since Peyton Manning's historic 2013 campaign (37:0; 25:0). The fact Rodgers did so without much of a running game makes it all the more impressive. While Jordy Nelson's return to form (65.5-percent catch rate inside the 20; 73.3 inside the 10) had something to do with it, Davante Adams (60; 70) and Randall Cobb (69.2; 85.7) were almost as good - if not better in some cases. That's as much the quarterback finding the open man and putting it in a spot he can catch it as it is the skill of the receiver.

On the opposite end of the spectrum was Cam Newton, who was actually serviceable in the red zone (58.2 percent, 26 TD, 0 INT) and inside the 10 (54.6, 13, 0) in 2015. In 2016, however, those marks were 36.7, 11 and 2 inside the 20 and 53.3, 7 and 1 inside the 10. (The 36.7-percent completion percentage inside the red zone was the worst among the quarterbacks listed last year.) Although we all know Newton had his own issues, Devin Funchess let him down far more than any other one of his receivers did (23.1-percent catch rate inside the red zone).

Care to question the Raiders' most recent $125 million investment? While Michael Crabtree was among the most targeted receivers inside the 20 (21 targets) and 10 (eight) and executed when given his opportunities for the most part (57.1-percent catch rate inside the 20, 50 inside the 10), Seth Roberts (40, 50) and Amari Cooper (38.5, 0) did not help Derek Carr (47.8, 37.2). Cooper's bagel inside the 10 (0-for-7) in particular contributed greatly to Carr's 16-for-43 line in close (37.2 percent). The problem with laying the blame entirely on Cooper or Roberts is Carr's 43.4 completion percentage inside the red zone in 2015.

Kirk Cousins proved he was a "franchise quarterback" in 2016 by throwing for 751 more yards and lowering his interception rate by a fraction of a percent. Or did he prove nothing at all? Despite attempting 63 more passes, he threw for four fewer touchdowns and was shockingly inaccurate inside the 20 (45.8 percent) and the 10 (31.6). Some may point to Jordan Reed being a shell of himself after injuring his shoulder on Thanksgiving as the main cause for the stunning drop Cousins' efficiency took from 2015 (61.1, 60.5). Then again, a "franchise quarterback" should never be that reliant on one player in any area of the field. Maybe Terrelle Pryor's efficiency with Cleveland last year (69.2-percent catch rate inside the 20, 75 percent inside the 10) was just another reason Washington saw him as a suitable replacement (upgrade?) on DeSean Jackson. In the interest of fair-and-balanced analysis, Cousins was one of the best and most efficient deep passers in the NFL in 2016, going 39-of-82 on passes 20 yards in the air and longer for a league-leading 1,359 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions, per Pro Football Focus.

"Exotic smash-mouth" football seemed to agree with Marcus Mariota, who finished fourth among the quarterbacks above in completion percentage inside the 20 (63) and second inside the 10 (69.6). His accuracy was made all the more impressive by the fact his best weapons were Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews and DeMarco Murray coming out of the backfield. Matthews, in particular, was awesome inside the 20 (80-percent catch rate) and the 10 (100), while Murray wasn't far behind (75, 66.7). There's no telling if Mariota can improve on his stellar numbers from a season ago, but given the impressive influx of receiving talent Tennessee acquired in the offseason, it's not unreasonable to think he can maintain it.

Next | Runners | Receivers



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.