One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunity tends
to lead to more success. That logic applies just as much - if not
more so - inside the 20 than it does outside of it. Since touchdowns
are the lifeblood of fantasy football and since the majority of
them are scored closer to the goal line, it only makes sense to
take into account what players are getting those chances and how
successful they are with them.
Red zone analysis helps owners get a sense of what teams are
doing in prime scoring territory, but looking at what teams do
solely inside the 20 doesn't provide the total picture. And it
makes sense why: just like in basketball where the field-goal
percentage goes down as the shot get progressively longer, the
percentage of teams scoring a touchdown on any given play go down
the further away a team is from the goal line. In keeping up with
the basketball metaphor, fantasy owners aren't concerned with
the first few passes that led to the shot; we want successful
conversions. The point to be made here is a lot more touchdowns
are scored inside the 5 and inside the 10 than between the 11
and 20.
Here is a key for the abbreviations you will see below:
Tgt – Target Rec – Reception Catch % – Catch rate (number
of receptions divided by targets) TD – Receiving touchdown Tgt% – Percentage of team's
targets inside given range
Qualified Receiver Averages (RBs/WRs/TEs
with at least five RZ targets) Inside the 20: 57 percent catch rate Inside the 10: 54 percent catch rate
Sort the team target percentages above. I can almost guarantee
you will be surprised by some of the names near the top of the
list. Allen Robinson may have been a bitter disappointment to
the majority of owners who drafted him in 2016, but fans of his
may be happy to learn he saw a higher percentage of his team's
targets inside the 20 (28.4) and 10 (league-high 43.5) in 2016
than he did in 2015 (23.9, 34.9). Each of the marks for both seasons
are extraordinarily high. Despite Allen Hurns' breakout campaign
in 2015, Robinson was still easily Blake Bortles' favorite target
inside the 20 and 10 then as well. With Julius Thomas no longer
around, the targets he leaves behind should negate whatever loss
of volume some might have expected with Leonard Fournette around.
In each of his last three healthy seasons (2013, 2014 and 2016),
Jordy Nelson has seen at least 22 targets inside the red zone
and 11 inside the 10. His 11 touchdowns inside the 20 and nine
scores inside the 10 were each the best marks in the league by
three. In each of those three seasons, his share of the team's
target percentage has either stayed the same or improved (from
25.3 to 25.8 to 27.6 inside the red zone; 23.9 to 31.9 in each
of the last two years inside the 10). Martellus Bennett is going
to steal a few looks from everyone in this passing attack, but
look for Nelson to be less affected by his arrival than Davante Adams and Randall Cobb.
Make no mistake about it: Michael Thomas and Donte Moncrief were
models of efficiency last year in scoring territory. Neither player
saw more than 17.8 percent of their team's targets inside the
20 or 21.6 percent of the looks inside the 10. While both were
buried fairly deep in the "Tm%" column inside both ranges
(Moncrief due mostly to injury), Thomas' 13 red zone catches were
tied with Larry Fitzgerald for fourth in the league, while his
68.4-percent catch rate in that area was the best among the most
highly targeted wide receivers inside the 20.
On the other hand, Moncrief converted all six of his opportunities
inside the 10 into scores, tying Thomas for the second-most TDs
(six) while only taking up 16.7 percent of the team's target percentage.
Moncrief's firm grasp on Andrew Luck's attention in close figures
to get tested this year if Kamar Aiken can win the No. 3 job,
giving the quarterback another decent-sized option to throw to
(as opposed to speedsters T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett). Thomas
is bound to see his production increase due to the departure of
Brandin Cooks, but Drew Brees' history with lead receivers suggests
owners should exercise caution when it comes to how much those
numbers will get bumped up.
One look at Rishard Matthews' line should be enough to make owners
reconsider overlooking him in 2017. No receiver with at least
15 red zone targets caught a higher percentage than Matthews (80),
while only Stefon Diggs (91.7) and Brandin Cooks (90.9) outclassed
him among receivers with more than 10 targets. He was one of the
few to haul in every one of his targets inside the 10, turning
five of those six opportunities into scores as well. Matthews
may lose volume to Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis, but count
on him staying heavily involved. Perhaps after lining up in "11"
personnel (one back, one tight end and three receivers) a league-low
42 percent of the time last season, the Titans decide to push
that mark closer to the league average from a year ago (60 percent).
Speaking of Diggs and Cooks, they were remarkably similar inside
the 20 and 10, as both receivers caught all but one of the passes
thrown in their direction at both levels. Diggs (11-of-12) was
actually targeted one more time than Cooks (10-of-11) inside the
red zone, but Cooks doubled up Diggs inside the 10. While it didn't
help Diggs' cause that Sam Bradford essentially needed to get
the ball out of his hands within two seconds on virtually every
pass play last year, the inside-the-10 gap between the two players
speaks more to the difference in quarterback play and Drew Brees'
ability to move from one read to the next almost seamlessly.
While Diggs is probably due to take another statistical jump
this year if he can play more than 13 games for the first time
in his career, he figures to continue to take a back seat to Kyle
Rudolph (if not also Adam Thielen and maybe even Laquon Treadwell)
at the very least in the red zone again in 2017. While it is unlikely
Cooks will see much more of the team's target share inside the
20 (10.3 percent) and 10 (11.8) in New England than he did last
year, Cooks may only need yet another injury to Rob Gronkowski
in order to become a primary option in the red zone. He's a strong
candidate to reach the 10-TD plateau for the first time in his
career.
Demaryius Thomas has been among the league leaders in red zone
targets for years. Outside of four fewer catches inside the 20,
however, Emmanuel Sanders was essentially his equal almost across
the board. Perhaps that fact shouldn't be terribly surprising
since the duo was separated by only seven targets (144-137) for
the year and Thomas battled through a hip injury for at least
half of the season. Still, Thomas out-targeted Sanders inside
the 20 (19-8) and 10 (8-2) by substantial margins in Peyton Manning's
final season in 2015. Although a full offseason from A.J. Derby
- as well as the additions of rookies Carlos Henderson and Jake Butt - should eventually reduce Denver's dependence on Thomas
and Sanders to carry the passing game, it wouldn't be surprising
if the status quo - Thomas and Sanders hogging red zone looks
- remained intact for one more season.
While Kyle Rudolph did not lap the field at his position in terms
of terms of scoring touchdowns inside the 20 (five) and 10 (four),
he was much busier inside both ranges than any other tight end
(24, 10). In fact, his 24 targets inside the 20 ranked second
in the NFL behind Nelson and were the most by a tight end since
Jimmy Graham in 2013. To put Rudolph's numbers inside the 20 and
10 into perspective, he saw more targets than Odell Beckham Jr.
from both distances (24-21 and 10-9), caught more such passes
than OBJ (14-9 and 6-4) and matched him at both levels in touchdowns.
OBJ saw a slightly higher percentage of his team's targets inside
the 20 (34.4-32.4) and 10 (36-34.5). The major difference in their
lines? Beckham turned all four of his catches inside the 10 into
touchdowns. Nevertheless, Rudolph needs to be taken more seriously
by owners after back-to-back years of seeing more than a third
of his team's targets inside the 10.
Three receivers/tight ends earned at least a 30-percent share
of their team's red zone targets and we just finished talking
about two of them (OBJ and Rudolph), each of whom also saw more
than a third of their team's targets inside the 10 as well. The
one exception? Jason Witten (30.2). The ageless wonder was targeted
a team-high 16 times in the red zone but was mostly invisible
to Dak Prescott inside the 10, however, ranking fourth on his
own team with a measly three opportunities and a 12-percent target
percentage. With Ryan Switzer complementing Cole Beasley as an
underneath receiver with the ability to uncover quickly and Dez Bryant a dominant high-point receiver when healthy, Witten will
almost certainly fall further down the TE2 ranks.
Philip Rivers has long been accused of having too many children
(he has eight), wearing bolo ties and loving tight ends. Perhaps
in part due to the early loss of Keenan Allen and the fact he
has two stud tight ends (one a surefire Hall-of-Famer and the
other a prospect the team can't say enough good things about),
Rivers made Antonio Gates (18) and Hunter Henry (16) the second-
and fourth-most targeted players at their position inside the
red zone a season ago. (Both were tied for third with a handful
of other tight ends inside the 10 last year with seven targets.)
While San Diego has quickly emerged as an offense on the verge
of having too many mouths to feed, don't expect the emphasis on
keeping Gates and Henry involved near the goal line to change
in 2017.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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