As discussed in this space last
week, the remainder of my postseason columns will feature my
NFL.com Playoff Challenge roster (for as long as applicable), followed
by my weekly league predictions and DFS prognostications. The further
we advance in the postseason, the deeper the analysis into the matchups.
NFL.com Playoff Challenge
NFL.com Playoff Challenge Roster
QB: Lamar Jackson (x2)
RB: Mark Ingram (x2)
RB: Raheem Mostert
WR: Tyreek Hill (x2)
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: Mark Andrews
K: Justin Tucker
D/ST: Ravens (x2)
DraftKings/Fuzzy’s
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to combine the two.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by their projected point total in that format (Fuzzy's
and then DraftKings). Each position is sorted by my DraftKings'
projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
In a pick-your-studs competition like Fuzzy's, Jackson would seem
to be the prohibitive favorite to finish with the most points of
any player this week. In DFS, however, I'm not sure the likely point
differential between him and the rest of the quarterback field is
going to be enough to pay the extra $900-1500 over some other very
solid options. Unlike most of Baltimore's recent competition, Tennessee
has the ability to milk the clock and limit the number of possessions
the Ravens get. If we merely take a look at the two teams Baltimore
faced during the second half of the season that have the combination
of a good running game and solid defense (San Francisco and Buffalo),
we'll see those were Jackson's "mediocre" fantasy games.
While Tennessee may not boast a defense on the level of the 49ers
and Bills, their running game is arguably as good as there is in
the NFL after Baltimore's.
There are three realistic pivots from Jackson this week that
come with a bit more risk but similar upside. Even if Houston-Kansas
City ends up getting played in freezing temperatures, it's hard
to imagine that game not turning into a bit of a shootout - assuming
the Texans don't wait until the second half this week to unleash
Watson. There's no question the Chiefs' defense is playing at
a higher level since suffering their last loss (Week 10 at Tennessee),
but Kansas City also has not faced a quarterback playing at an
elite level over that time (Philip Rivers x2, Derek Carr, Tom
Brady, Drew Lock and Mitchell Trubisky). One huge change from
the first game: Kansas City S Juan Thornhill will not play after
going on IR. Don't think for a second his absence doesn't impact
Watson's willingness to take more deep shots, particularly if
Will Fuller can play a decent amount of snaps.
With the defense playing well lately, Mahomes hasn't been needed
as much as most fantasy owners expected. Houston stops the run
reasonably well and should be able to put some points on the board
on a regular basis, which may be just the recipe Mahomes needs
throw 40-plus times and at least three touchdowns.
My favorite "non-elite" option of the week is probably
Garoppolo. With George Kittle playing at such a high level, Minnesota's
safeties are going to be hard-pressed to take their focus off
the middle of the field. With HC Kyle Shanahan's running game
doing its usual thing, the linebackers figure to have their hands
full at well. As such, it could become a feeding frenzy for the
49ers receivers if the Vikings' cornerbacks struggle to hold up,
as was the case for the better part of the season.
As my projections suggest, Jones is my top running back option of
the week and there's not a particularly close runner-up. Seattle
has surrendered more than 2,100 total yards and 19 total touchdowns
to running backs this season. Prior to last week's Wild Card game
versus the injury-ravaged Eagles, the Seahawks gave up two scores
to the running back position in four straight games. In two of those
contests, Christian McCaffrey and Kenyan Drake each went over 170
total yards. Even Philadelphia - with little to no threat in the
passing game and a backup quarterback for most of the game - managed
to get 94 yards rushing on 20 carries and 31 yards on six catches
from the combination of Boston Scott and Miles Sanders. Jones should
be a fixture in DFS lineups; he will be in mine, especially at the
discount he offers over Henry and Cook.
I'm fairly certain I'd roll with Cook over Henry this week in
DFS if I had to choose between the two (and I will undoubtedly
try to work them into a few lineups with Jones), but $8000+ is
a bit much for players I don't expect to have special performances.
Henry could easily become a victim of game script if Baltimore
comes out on fire, while the combination of injury risk and what
should be a 49ers defense approaching full health could limit
Cook's upside. Ingram would be a strong pivot from those owners
looking for cheaper options than Henry and/or Cook, but his calf
injury needs to be taken seriously. My projection for him should
be considered his ceiling, as I believe Baltimore may try to hold
him under 15 touches if at all possible.
Another staple in my DFS lineups this week figures to be Mostert.
At $5,800 on DraftKings, he comes $900 cheaper than Ingram with
less risk and $1600 cheaper than anyone else discussed to this
point with similar upside. It'd be nice to see Shanahan let Mostert
handle something closer to 16 touches on a regular basis than
12, but I'll rarely bet against a talented back that should be
working in positive game script on a six-game scoring streak in
an offense that produces mismatches and gets results as frequently
as Shanahan's.
Not including the time he missed due to injury from Weeks 12-15,
Damien Williams came through for the few fantasy owners who still
believed in him late in the regular season. His late push was
probably enough to get HC Andy Reid to commit to him as the lead
back, but owners were burnt countless times this season by the
Kansas City backfield and Reid's whimsical usage patterns. And
if we are to believe Reid's claims that McCoy's regular-season
absences were due to "load management," then it had
to be with an eye toward the postseason. In that case, how can
we expect much more than a split backfield?
IF it is reported between now and the start of playoff action
Saturday that Ingram is going to be limited in any way, Edwards
will be my flex in the majority of my DFS lineups. It's entirely
within the range of reasonable outcomes he rushes for 120 yards
and a touchdown if Ingram sits. It could be argued it might be
even better for DFS players that Ingram starts, as it would lower
Edwards' ownership and pay off in an even bigger way if Ingram
leaves early or handles a lighter than expected workload.
Since he returned from his toe injury in Week 9 and through the
end Week 16, Adams (78) trailed only Michael Thomas (88) and Christian
McCaffrey (83) in targets. Only once over that time did Adams not
see double-digit targets. Unsurprisingly, only once over that span
did he finish with fewer than six catches. Some of that is a reflection
on how good of a receiver Adams has become, but most would argue
that his usage is more of a reflection on how little trust relative
to Adams that Aaron Rodgers has in the rest of the receivers. As
it relates to this week, Seattle hasn't shown much ability to slow
down bigger receivers - or lead receivers, for that matter - lately,
as Robert Woods (25.7 fantasy points), D.J. Moore (20.3), Larry
Fitzgerald (14.8) and Deebo Samuel (24.5) all carved up the Seahawks'
secondary. Adams is every bit as good as that group - if not better
- and his team's reliance on him is probably heavier than anyone
in that group as well.
Based on recent production, Hill is not a must-start in fantasy
this week. Of course, most of us know better than to bet against
him. It could be argued no one player has a better matchup. If I
am correct in my belief this game has shootout potential, then there
is little question Hill has overall WR1 upside. Last week, Buffalo
failed to maximize the advantage it had in John Brown - a similar
receiver to Hill - and he finished with 15.6 fantasy points. Don't
expect Kansas City to make the same mistake. With Patrick Mahomes
a good bet to throw for at least 250 yards and really no one else
besides Travis Kelce likely to take a sizable chunk of those yards,
it's entirely possible I am selling Hill short with my projection.
Interestingly, Houston did the bulk of its damage last week when
it moved Hopkins out of the slot and allowed him to face Tre'Davious
White more often. That seems notable considering how well Kansas
City has defended perimeter receivers over the second half of
the season. Are the Chiefs playing as well on both sides of the
formation as White? Unlikely. As such, Hopkins could easily be
the second-best receiver play of the week. In a pick-your-studs
format like Fuzzy's, I imagine I'll line up with Adams, Hill and
Hopkins. In my DFS lineups, I may alternate him with Hill in a
few spots. In the Texans' Week 6 matchup with Kansas City, Hopkins
finished with nine catches for 55 yards. In that game, it was
clear then the emphasis was on Watson getting rid of the ball
as quickly as possible. How much HC Bill O'Brien's belief in the
offensive line has grown since then will most likely determine
to what degree Hopkins can beat my projection.
DraftKings appears to be running a special on the 49ers this
week, as I would argue each of their expected key players to this
point are underpriced. The best bargain of the bunch may be Samuel,
who went on a tear over the second half of the season. It was
almost uncanny how often he came through for his fantasy owners,
even with limited opportunities. Over the final six weeks of the
season, he saw six or fewer targets five times. Despite that,
he still produced at least 13 fantasy points all but one time.
He even got occasional work out of the backfield as the season
wrapped up and, of course, he took advantage of those opportunities
as well. While it's much too early to say Samuel belongs in the
same class as D.J. Moore, Kenny Golladay, Keenan Allen, Davante
Adams and Allen Robinson, each of those "lead" receivers
- most of whom we can consider bigger receivers - gave Minnesota
trouble. As discussed earlier, the Vikings aren't going to give
much help to their cornerbacks this week, so if Samuel is winning
can win his individual matchup as often as he did during the season,
he should be a solid DFS bargain.
There is a glut of mid-priced receivers ($6000-ish) that I have
projected to post similar lines. Thielen is probably the best
bet of the bunch given how much Kirk Cousins leans on him, but
I'm not sure the difference is going to be significant enough
from the other players I have projected in the same range (Brown
and Lockett) to try to force him into DFS lineups. Owners also
need to keep tabs on this week's ankle injury. If this is still
an issue heading into Saturday afternoon's game, there are other
similarly priced options with nearly identical upside. As for
another mid-priced option, let's not forget that Fuller famously
dropped three potential touchdown passes against the Chiefs in
their first meeting. Positive regression could be coming for him
in a big way if owners are seeking a lower-cost option with significant
upside (assuming he is cleared to play this week obviously).
Three of fantasy football's top five scoring tight ends during the
regular season are in action this weekend, giving owners in pick-your-studs
competitions some hope of gaining some ground by taking someone
like Andrews over Kelce or Kittle. The downside is that owners who
don't go with one of these three options in DFS formats are facing
long odds of keeping up with the competition if they go in another
(cheaper) direction. Houston managed to keep Kelce in check (four
catches for 58 yards) in the first meeting, but the majority of
high-end tight ends have fared better than that versus the Texans
this season. Most notably, Andrews (17.5), Noah Fant (21.3) and
Jonnu Smith (16.7) had field days against Houston during the second
half of the season. The Texans' defense took a big hit in Week 17
when it lost S Tashaun Gipson for the season. Gipson was added in
free agency this offseason based largely on his ability to defend
tight ends, so Kelce could be in a prime blowup spot.
The amount of production Tennessee allowed to tight ends this
season (80-916-9) is reasonably close to Zach Ertz's final numbers
for the regular season (88-916-6). Since the Titans' Week 11 bye,
Jack Doyle (19.3), Darren Waller (11.2), Foster Moreau (10.4),
Jared Cook (23.4) and Jordan Akins (10.4) have all reached double
figures against them. Considering Andrews may be Lamar Jackson's
only consistent option in the passing game and certainly appears
to be his most trusted option, it could be argued Andrews has
more upside than any other tight end on the board this week. In
DFS, I'd be more than happy to take my chances with Andrews ($5,600)
over Kelce ($6,400) and Kittle ($6,200).
If Kittle hasn't emerged as the most dominant force at tight
end in the game today, he's pretty close. However, with the exception
of some early-season performances that were the result of negative
game script for their opponents, the Vikings have been exceptional
defending the position. With players such as Anthony Barr and
Harrison Smith usually serving as the primary coverage option,
it makes sense why. For the sake of making a legit comparison,
Kelce finished with seven receptions for 62 yards on nine targets
against Minnesota in Week 9. The Vikings have allowed one touchdown
to the position all season long. In short, there are other paths
to take this week with more upside and less resistance than what
Kittle offers/faces.
If owners absolutely must punt the position in order to get one
more stud back or receiver into their lineups, I would recommend
one of the "other" two Baltimore tight ends. The Ravens
use multiple tight ends on such a regular basis - especially Boyle
since he is considered the best blocker - that it should come
as no surprise when he cashes in inside the 5 with defenses selling
out to stop the run. Seattle has been awful against tight ends
for the bulk of the season, so a pivot from one the top three
tight ends to Graham is understandable - even if it doesn't come
with much upside.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers F Bonus - Points allowed bonus for Fuzzy's DK Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
It should not take fantasy owners very long to eliminate about half
of this field. Good luck betting against Lamar Jackson and/or Patrick
Mahomes, eliminating the Titans and Texans. Green Bay committed
only 13 turnovers as a team for the season, which makes the Seahawks
a poor option. San Francisco showed some vulnerability late, but
with the defense getting heathier, the Niners may not feel overly
compelled to rely on Jimmy Garoppolo as often as it did down the
stretch. That would reduce whatever turnover upside the Vikings'
defense has.
With seemingly no great low-cost options remaining, we are left
with the four most expensive defenses left on the board. Tennessee
is averaging 29.4 points over its last 11 contests and committed
one or no turnover(s) over that span eight times. Considering
the Titans will feature the running game so heavily and have a
very realistic chance of knocking off the Ravens, I'd just as
soon avoid Baltimore's D/ST. Houston has provided opponents a
steady supply of sacks for the bulk of the season and could be
in a bit of a compromised position again this week if they don't
have Will Fuller available. If Kansas City is more successful
in keeping Deshaun Watson in the pocket than Buffalo was last
week, the Chiefs could be worth a play. Although the Packers have
done a good job getting after the quarterback, I'd just as soon
avoid betting against Russell Wilson if at all possible. Starting
a defense against Seattle comes with sack upside, but Wilson does
a fantastic job of mixing big-play ability with making the smart
play. Regarding the 49ers defense, only six of 17 opponents registered
more than one sack against Minnesota. Moreover, Kirk Cousins has
only six interceptions in 16 games. As such, I would roll with
the Chiefs in the majority of my DFS lineups if Fuller is ruled
out and do my best to alternate Green Bay, Kansas City and San
Francisco if Houston enters Sunday with a healthy offense.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
