When children in the year 2120 open up their American History textbooks
(or tablets or whatever learning tool they will be using at that
point), they will learn about a nation that persevered through a
pandemic and social injustice … simultaneously. Perhaps they
will be as amazed as I am that professional sports were even played
during this time and maybe even contributed greatly to the nation's
ability to solve both issues. I know it's not important in the overall
scheme of things at the moment, but it is truly unique to be living
in a time that you know will be a part - and probably a very important
part - of our country's history.
Week 1 of the NFL season this year brought with it a sense of
normalcy that was badly needed (even if empty stadiums and all
non-playing personnel are wearing masks isn't anyone's idea of
normal). Sweating the small stuff such as who looked good and
who didn't following an offseason in which NFL players barely
got to play football seems somewhat insignificant, but it's a
necessary evil if we want to enjoy another year of testing our
mettle on the virtual gridiron.
I'll begin this season the same way I have started many others.
One week doesn't give us nearly enough information to make a call
on some players, but we don't have much of a choice as fantasy
managers in competitive leagues. There is always going to be an
owner (or five or six) in your league that desperately needs to
fill a hole with this week's hot name on the waiver wire whether
that player has earned that honor or not. However, Week 1 does
help to steer us in the right direction in the same way a good
appetizer at a restaurant can set the tone for a memorable dinner
(or bad service can ruin it). Many players made an impression
on me in Week 1, and I chose to highlight nine in particular that
stood out in one way or another.
Feed me (fantasy stocks I like more than I did a week ago)
Let's begin with Gurley's production and work our way back. Fantasy
owners probably got what they expected in Week 1 with 19 opportunities
(14 carries and five targets) and 16 touches, which resulted in
13.7 fantasy points. While he didn't get game-scripted out of
the opener, 14 of his opportunities came before halftime. On the
downside, he didn't see any work in the fourth quarter and played
a total of 36 (out of a possible 79) snaps. And if Week 1 is indicative
of Atlanta's plans moving forward, Ito Smith and Brian Hill will
get plenty of work in two-minute situations and most of the work
on third down.
So how is this a good thing? Not every opponent has the offensive
firepower the Seahawks do, nor will those same opponents have
the ability to keep Atlanta from moving the ball at will. The
Cowboys could have the same kind of success in Week 2 that Seattle
did last week, but the Falcons will face the Bears, Packers, Panthers
(twice), Vikings and Lions after that. Some of those teams have
good defenses and some have good offenses, but I'm not sure any
of them have both. There are at least four games during that stretch
in which Gurley should be able to enjoy as much volume as he can
handle.
In case readers haven't noticed by now, I am much more of an
eye-test guy than anything. We probably will never see the Gurley
we remember from a few years ago again, but he still has a second
gear when he is given the chance to work in space (something that
rarely happened a year ago). Hill showed enough in camp to see
some regular work as the breather back, but this is going to be
Gurley's show in an offense on par (in terms of talent) with the
ones we remember during his heyday. There's a reason he was drafted
to be an RB2 this summer (consistency could be lacking in addition
to concerns about his knee), but I'm willing to bet Atlanta's
offense will put him in a position to score touchdowns more often
than not. There's also the small motivation of playing football
in the same state he attended college AND the knowledge he's playing
for a contract.
Taylor was a regular topic of discussion throughout August in
this space, and I told readers in the final version of my PPR
Big Board (as well as the FFToday
Staff League write-up) that I would be willing to roll the
dice on Taylor as early as 3.02 in my high-stakes leagues because
I knew what the payoff could be. I'm not going to pretend as if
it was anything more than dumb luck that Marlon
Mack lasted only 11 plays before tearing his Achilles, but
one of my comments in the draft write-up was fantasy owners tend
to get caught up in trying to draft the best lineup for now or
September as opposed to looking ahead to what the landscape may
look like in December. Most fantasy owners were pretty certain
Taylor was going to eventually bypass Mack on the depth chart.
While I feel terrible for Mack - someone who went out of his
way to make Taylor feel welcome and show him the ropes - let this
situation serve as a reminder when you draft next year. Sometimes
in fantasy, our bet-on-talent gambles pay off exactly when they
are supposed to and other times they don't pay off until a year
or two down the road. Sometimes we see the payoff almost immediately,
as was the case here. Once I had done enough drafts to feel comfortable
with the receivers I was getting in the fourth and fifth round
to serve as my WR1 and WR2 (and after learning I would be picking
in the back half of the first round in most of my drafts, thus
almost ensuring I would go RB-RB), I consistently drafted Taylor
as my RB3 at the tail end of the third round because I felt confident
he would be a solid RB2 during bye weeks and a reasonable bet
to emerge as my RB1 at some point late in the season.
In case anyone believes this is some kind of "victory lap," it
is not. There is one time to do a victory lap if you are going
to do one and it's after you have won something. There are 15
weeks to go in a season being played with more external factors
to consider than at any point in my lifetime and perhaps the history
of the league. There is also the possibility the coaching staff
still wants to ease Taylor into the NFL for a bit longer (i.e.
Nyheim Hines'
heavy usage in the opener). Feel good about your good fortune
if your investment in Taylor paid off sooner than expected and
pray he shows the same kind of durability he did in college.
Fantasy owners of Leonard Fournette may have come away from Week
1 feeling pretty good about the odds their newfound love will
pay off sooner than later, but I'm not sure I agree with that
line of thinking. The odds probably still favor Fournette leading
this backfield because the "he's been there before"
line of thinking seems to weigh heavily on the mind of coaches
over the course of a season, but Jones ran well despite what his
Week 1 numbers say. The Saints have one of the league's best defenses
at the moment, so I'm encouraged by his final line. And while
I feel like I bang the drum for "he needs time to learn the
playbook" as much as anyone, Fournette was not sharp and
looked like he was thinking too much, especially for a player
HC Bruce Arians said had a good grasp of his playbook. Fournette
will get worked in more in the coming weeks for sure, but his
supporters need Jones to look average against the Carolina defense
that just gave up three touchdowns to Josh Jacobs last weekend
if they hope to see some kind of return on their investment before
October.
As I'm sure was the case for the majority of fantasy enthusiasts,
I figured Brown was going to be a nominal starter for the Rams,
staying in the lineup only as long as it took for HC Sean McVay
to get comfortable with Cam Akers in pass protection. Brown has
always been more of a straight-ahead physical runner, but he showed
Chris Carson-level aggression with his runs in Week 1 versus the
Cowboys. It's difficult to take a back willing to run that hard
off the field, and it's a big part of the reason why I don't anticipate
him fading away anytime soon.
Unlike the beginning of last season when the majority of the
industry was touting Brown as the goal-line back when it just
happened to be his series or Gurley needed a rest at the end of
a long drive, Brown appears to be the early favorite for goal-line
duties. McVay consistently said throughout the offseason he anticipated
using a committee and riding the "hot hand" if/when
one begins to emerge. The smart money says Akers will still pull
away in the end, but Brown's performance in Week 1 throws a bit
of doubt into what seemed like a virtual certainty a week ago.
I'm not sure I wrote a single e-mail, tweet or column this summer
regarding Conner that didn’t include the name Benny Snell
and how important it was to grab him as well. (In the interest
of full disclosure, I am heavily invested in Conner, but I may
be even more invested in Snell. My point: I have slightly more
to gain from Snell overtaking Conner at some point.)
Barring the rare instance in which another prospecting fantasy
owner swooped in with a pick in the 10th or 11th round to snag
Snell, the price was low enough on him for Conner's fantasy owners
to protect their investment this summer. Quite frankly, an investment
in Conner should have always been viewed into HC Mike Tomlin's
desire to ride one back. So, I don't have a lot of sympathy for
fantasy owners who didn't treat them as a package deal and now
find themselves in a potentially unfortunate situation.
With that said, the lack of appreciation in the fantasy world
for Conner is astounding. Conner finished as the RB7 in 2018 despite
playing only 13 games - almost replicating the production Le'Veon
Bell enjoyed the previous year - and people said it was the scheme.
Last year, he was the RB9 through Week 8 despite battling through
an assortment of injuries. It's a ridiculous notion that one game
has somehow reshuffled the Pittsburgh backfield. Yes, maybe Tomlin
will lose patience with Conner's lack of availability at some
point, but I don't think it's coming just over a week after he
said "there is no question who our bell cow is." Conner
played 15 snaps in Week 1 before suffering his ankle injury with
1:38 left in the first quarter and saw 10 opportunities (six carries,
four targets). If you watch the play enough times and slow it
down, it had nothing to do with him being brittle. It was an unfortunate
misstep trying to plant his left foot as he was preparing for
contact.
There is also this notion that Conner looked bad before leaving.
(Folks, lack of stats doesn't mean lack of quality.) Again, he
looked quicker than I can ever remember seeing him. The two targets
he didn't catch were off-target and I challenge anyone to find
one of his six runs in which he could have done much more with
what he was given than he did. I didn't want to be dealing with
Conner's injury history after one week, but it does present a
buying opportunity because the overwhelming majority of people
will get bombarded with advice from the "experts" that
he is not built to last. All I know is I want a piece of that
Pittsburgh backfield, and Conner still gives fantasy owners the
best chance of that investment paying off.
Are people panicking already on OBJ? Is there no such thing as
patience? Did people think the first game in a new offense against
a tough Baltimore defense was a blow-up spot? Did fantasy owners
draft and not bother to look to see the first matchup was against
the Ravens? (I know you did because you're a big fan of the Big
Boards.)
Let's begin with the most basic reasons for optimism: he's healthy.
He also had 10 targets against one of the best secondaries in
the league. (In two games against Baltimore last season, he totaled
13 targets.) After seemingly getting ignored for most of the first
half in Week 1, Beckham was a much more prominent part of the
game plan in the second half, even if Baker Mayfield could be
accused of trying to force-feed him. OBJ drew a pair of penalties
on stud CB Marlon Humphrey early in the third quarter. Beckham
beat Marcus Peters deep with just over 10 minutes left in the
fourth quarter for what would have been an easy 48-yard touchdown
but Mayfield overshot him by about two yards.
Ask some of your most knowledgeable football buddies if they
can name more than one starting cornerback from the following
teams: Cincinnati, Washington, Dallas and Indianapolis. Those
are Cleveland's next four opponents, three of which are at home.
If OBJ doesn't perform like a top-10 fantasy receiver in at least
one (and maybe even two) of those contests, then it may time to
hit the panic button. Three catches for 22 yards is not what I
had in mind for him in Week 1, but I also didn't expect him to
draw 10 targets, two flags on Humphrey or just miss on a deep
TD connection either. A statistical eruption is coming, and if
you have even a little bit of confidence about my Big Board matchup
analysis, you'll see I had Week 1 marked as a yellow matchup.
Between now and Week 14, he has only more yellow matchup and eight
greens. Make your move.
It came as a bit of a surprise to me to see how positive the
reaction was to Johnson in the opener. In all honesty, what are
his fantasy owners celebrating? The fact he scored a 19-yard rushing
touchdown when a linebacker took the inside gap instead of the
outside one? In no way am I trying to diminish the run - he showed
some nice elusiveness by dodging a penetrating defender and a
teammate (Randall Cobb) in the backfield - but I saw the 2019
pre-injury version of him against the Chiefs and not the record-setting
2016 version. In other words, I saw good burst and impressive
elusiveness for a 28-year-old back, but not the elite burst and
incredible elusiveness I saw nearly four years ago. I also would've
expected more than 14 touches from him in a game Duke Johnson
played only 14 snaps. Game script like the one Houston had in
the opener should not affect a three-down back like David Johnson.
He also saw eight or more men in the box on just one of his 11
carries, so there wasn't much excuse for him not to run well.
Here's another issue with Johnson moving forward. Let's assume
Kansas City is an average run defense in 2020 after ranking near
the bottom in the league last year in yards allowed per game (26th)
and yards per carry (28th), thus suggesting Johnson will be able
to shred lesser defenses. Houston faces Baltimore and Pittsburgh
over the next two weeks. After that, it's Minnesota. If we do
nothing more than apply common football sense (and put more weight
on that than Week 1 results), those three matchups in succession
represent about as difficult of a path as any back will encounter
this season. The schedule opens up a bit for him after that, but
I'm not bullish on his ability to thrive before Week 5 against
Jacksonville. If your fantasy team is good enough to survive three
straight weeks of horrible matchups, then hold.
There's also the matter of Johnson's injury history. To some
degree, he's similar to James Conner in that regard, but he gets
a bit of a pass because of 2016. My point here is simple: Johnson
should be a very good RB2 when the dust settles IF he can stay
healthy this year, but fantasy owners should take this opportunity
to take advantage of recency bias and see if an unsuspecting league-mate
is willing to move a low-end RB1 in exchange for Johnson and a
WR3-level of player. As often as Houston has given fantasy owners
running backs with consistently good volume in the Bill O'Brien
era, they haven't been league-winning types. I don't think the
28-year-old version of Johnson changes that.
Whereas I don't have a ton of concern for David Johnson's long-term
outlook outside of his durability, I don't feel the same about
Ekeler. In my final drafts of the season, I moved Ekeler toward
the end of the second round because it started to become obvious
the team was smitten with Joshua Kelley, especially near the goal
line. There's also the well-established notion that mobile quarterbacks
tend to target backs less often than traditional pocket quarterbacks
do. While it's hard to complain about 20 opportunities from a
running back regardless of how they happen, Ekeler's Week 1 usage
is not good for him (19 carries, one target).
The season opener could have been taken as a good sign that Ekeler
will be immune to game script, but HC Anthony Lynn seemed to shoot
down that on Monday. He told The Athletic's Daniel Popper that
the new scheme - primarily the increase quarterback and pocket
movement - will limit
the number of check-downs to running backs. Lynn made it a
point to mention that Ekeler will remain a priority in the offense,
but his value in fantasy - especially in an offense that will
not play with much tempo or score a lot of points most weeks -
relies heavily on his ability to get at least a handful of opportunities
in space. The absence of targets and goal-line work makes Ekeler
little more than a glorified version of Phillip
Lindsay. Making matter worse: even if Tyrod
Taylor isn't the starting quarterback for more than half of
the season, there's not much reason to expect things to change
dramatically for Ekeler with Justin
Herbert under center. The Chargers would not have made the
move to their new offensive scheme unless it was what they envisioned
Herbert running as well.
Coaches adapt their game plan (at least the good ones do) on
a regular basis, and it's mildly reassuring to have Lynn reemphasize
Ekeler will remain a priority. He should be. However, coaches
- like most people - can be stubborn with certain core beliefs.
Lynn and OC Shane Steichen are attempting to emulate the Ravens'
offensive model in Los Angeles, and that approach isn't going
to lead to a lot of passing in general - much less check-downs
to running backs. The Chargers' upcoming schedule (at home versus
the Chiefs and Panthers) should give Ekeler's fantasy owners a
bit of a window to sell high, and that is exactly what I would
do after Week 3. I projected about a 20 percent drop in targets
for Ekeler this year, but I hoped that decline would be negated
somewhat by an uptick in carries. However, if the targets are
going to drop by a third or more and the goal-line work is going
to get cut too, I don't see how this ends well for Ekeler.
There are seemingly a handful of players every year that fantasy
owners are willing to be wrong about. Fuller must be that player
for me in 2020. Yes, he appears to be settling into the DeAndre Hopkins role of this offense nicely after one game, but what did
he do that was overly impressive? At the end of the first half
of a matchup he should exploit against Kansas City, he had two
catches for 25 yards. After three quarters, it was four catches
for 40 yards. In other words, half of his catches and 64 percent
of his yards came in the fourth quarter during true garbage time.
While his supporters would say it all counts the same in the fantasy
box score, counting on garbage time from a supposed league-winner
type at receiver is risky business.
This is not a question of whether or not Fuller is a good player.
It's also not a question of whether or not his strengths match
up with Deshaun Watson's. He is and they do. This is a question
of Fuller showing he is a complete receiver (the jury is still
out on that) and if he can stay on the field long enough to prove
it. I guess you could say he passed the first test if we want
to look solely at his Week 1 production, but I didn't see a reception
that was a function of him making a special play. And similar
to the case I laid out with David Johnson, Baltimore and Pittsburgh
have the personnel (and pass rush) to take Fuller out of the game
if he can't be special. But perhaps that's a bit of an overreaction.
What is not an overreaction is that Fuller is in his fifth NFL
season and still has yet to top 50 catches or 700 yards. He has
scored a touchdown in only one game since Week 8 of the 2018 season.
We all know what he's capable of doing, but fantasy success is
not built on the hope of a receiver who realizes his potential
two or three times per season. I fear his production in Week 1
was largely a product of a somewhat favorable matchup, garbage
time and Brandin Cooks being limited with his quad injury. Haven’t
his long-time fantasy owners reached a point where they are hoping
he gets up unscathed after every catch as opposed to expecting
it? I know it sounds harsh and unfair, but let me provide you
a partial listing of what he has endured as a pro: five documented
hamstring injuries, two knee strains, one torn ACL, a shoulder
fracture and a rib fracture. As I said earlier, I'm willing to
take the "L" on this one if I end up being wrong.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.