Training camps have opened their doors and I’m excited to
continue the predictions for the upcoming season. Not every note
is earthshattering, but they will all certainly give you a better
insight for draft day. We looked at the AFC
last week so it’s the NFC’s turn.
Ezekiel Elliott: The hype train is moving
full steam ahead. Are we overvaluing the Cowboys rookie RB?
NFC East -
Dallas – The Cowboys “hype train”
is in overdrive on rookie running back Ezekiel
Elliott - the fourth back off the board (ADP 8.2). However,
be very wary of Ohio State running backs. They run through gaping
holes made by soon-to-be NFL offensive lineman and too many end
up falling short of lofty expectations. Since 1999 the Buckeyes
have sent four running backs to the NFL in the top-three rounds
– Carlos
Hyde (2014), Chris “Beanie” Wells (2009), Maurice Clarett (2005)
and Joe Montgomery (1999). Are any of them a top-four NFL back?
I saw on an OSU fan site a top-six all-time Buckeye running backs
list – Archie Griffin, Eddie George, Keith Byars, Ezekiel Elliott,
Tim Spencer and Chris Wells. Excluding Elliott, only one of the
five was a fantasy stud (George). I don’t like the odds.
New York – The best “Manning” in the
NFL plays quarterback for the Giants. OK, he was actually the best
Manning in 2015 too, but no one seemed to notice. You better start
paying attention. Eli has thrown 65 touchdown passes over the past
two seasons and averaged 4,423 yards. You know how many NFL QBs
can match both those totals? Two! (Tom
Brady and Drew
Brees). Oh, and the team spent a high second-round pick (No.
40) on wide receiver Sterling
Shepard to compliment Odell
Beckham Jr. I understand Cam
Newton and Russell
Wilson add value with their feet, but Manning as the 10th QB
off the board (90.3 ADP) is a steal.
Philadelphia – There are no Eagles
worthy of a starting spot in a fantasy lineup. Think of the recent
Kansas City offense under Doug Pederson’s direction, but without
Jamaal
Charles and Jeremy
Maclin … that’s the Eagles in 2016. Under OC Pederson in KC,
the team finished 2015; 31st in plays, 27th in yards gained, 26th
in TDs and 16th in yards-per-play. Ryan
Mathews and Jordan
Matthews can be your injury/bye week third options, but don’t
expect more.
Washington – Here are three reasons
why Kirk
Cousins will be a start-worthy quarterback in 2016. First, the
team has no reliable running game. Second, Washington’s top talents
all catch the ball; DeSean
Jackson, Pierre
Garcon, top draft choice Josh
Doctson and tight end Jordan
Reed. Finally, none of the other NFC East defenses (Dallas,
New York or Philadelphia) can stop a legitimate passing game. Cousins
averaged 288.4 ypg with a 22-1 TD-INT ratio in their nine 2015 wins
and 224.3 ypg in their seven losses. Bottom line, when the Redskins
pass, they win. If I can see it, don’t you think Jay Gruden and
Sean McVay can too?
NFC North -
Chicago – The big question in the
city of Chicago (after whether the Cubs can finally win it all)
is whether Jeremy
Langford is ready and able to replace Matt
Forte? I do not believe he’s ready and you should be careful
about expecting him to post Forte-like totals (averaged 1,589 combined
yards, 8 TDs). Langford averaged just 3.6 ypc last season. He’s
also got suspect hands (22-of-42 targets).
Detroit –Matthew
Stafford has a big hole in his offensive arsenal with the retirement
of Calvin
Johnson. Big No. 81 was the primary reason Stafford averaged
4,634 passing yards over the past five seasons. Without his top
receiver you would probably like to know what you can expect from
the Lions quarterback. Answer: He won’t be an every week starter.
Mike Krueger projects him with 4,059 yards and just 25 touchdown
passes which makes him a backup fantasy option. Without Johnson,
he’s left with two WR2 receivers. His 131 ADP (18th QB off the board)
is an accurate representation.
Green Bay – Wide receiver Jordy
Nelson may have recovered from his torn right ACL injury of
a season ago, but remember he’s 31-years old and sometimes “older
guys” take longer to return to form. Right now he’s dealing with
left knee tendinitis, so he may not get many reps before the season
begins. Until I see him at full strength, I’m predicting he doesn’t
reach his 2014 heights or even 2013 level so beware of pulling the
trigger too soon. His current 14.4 ADP (WR7) may be too high.
Minnesota – After a hot start (324
yards, 1 TD) in the first three games of 2015, rookie wideout Stefon
Diggs was one of the most coveted free agents, but his fantasy
value went downhill from there. The addition of talented rookie
Laquon
Treadwell will further damage his outlook. Dividing just 450-475
passing attempts and expecting either guy to be a WR2 or-better
is unlikely. There is still only one Vikings player who is fantasy-worthy
and Adrian
Peterson has been that guy since he came into the league in
2007.
NFC South -
Atlanta – Although Devonta
Freeman is not overpriced at his current ADP of 17 (RB8), he
comes with an inordinate amount of risk. If he plays as he did in
the first half of 2015 he’s worth every penny, but he showed the
wear and tear of a 338-touch season over the second half. The team
also has talented Tevin
Coleman, who began last season as the starter, in the backup
role, and he could see a larger piece of the workload in 2016 in
an effort to keep Freeman fresher for the stretch run. That notion
was supported by Dan Quinn, who just recently said “What’s best
for the team is using Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman in unison.”
That might be good for the Falcons, but not for Freeman’s fantasy
owners.
Carolina – Can Cam
Newton repeat his 2015 totals when he outscored the next-best
fantasy quarterback by 50 fantasy points (3,837 yards passing, 636
yards rushing, 35 passing TDs, 10 rushing TDs)? Or improve on them?
After all, he has a big weapon returning from injury – Kelvin
Benjamin (73-1008-9 in 2014). I think Newton still leads all
QBs in 2016, but his totals sink a bit. In 2015 everything went
right for Newton and the Panthers. That doesn’t happen very often.
New Orleans – Those of you who look
past Drew
Brees (sixth-ranked QB with a 60.0 ADP) do so at your own risk.
I believe he’s going to have a monster “walk-year” season. Last
year was one of adjustment, being without Jimmy
Graham and Marques
Colston as a non-factor. And with their below average defense
(I’m being very kind) Brees will need to have a big season. Brandin
Cooks became the receiver we expected, Willie
Snead blew up and Mark
Ingram averaged five targets per game. Add an elite receiving
tight end in free agency like Coby
Fleener and Brees should throw for 5,000 yards for a record
fifth time this season.
Tampa Bay – I’m all in on a rebound
season from wideout Mike
Evans. Sure, he dropped too many passes, but he still finished
with 74 catches for 1,206 yards and three scores … with a rookie
quarterback. Jameis
Winston will be better in Year 2 and Evans should be a fantasy
stud in 2016. The Bucs defense still won’t stop many teams so their
offense is going to be racking up points while playing from behind.
I believe Evans’ floor is a top-10 wideout and the ceiling is around
No. 5.
NFC West -
Arizona –Carson
Palmer isn’t being shown the respect he deserves after posting
4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns last season. Some may think he’s injury
prone, but he has played 15 or more games in five of the last seven
seasons including 2015. He’s throwing to one of the best receiving
corps (Larry
Fitzgerald, Michael
Floyd and John
Brown) and a running back with great hands (David
Johnson).
Los Angeles –Jared
Goff is likely a huge improvement over Nick
Foles or Case
Keenum, but the rookie quarterback isn’t going to be fantasy
worthy this season. He’s got a big learning curve and a below-average
receiving corps (Tavon
Austin, Kenny
Britt and Brian
Quick). The Rams strategy for victories will be defense, Todd
Gurley and young Mr. Goff “just don’t turn the ball over.”
San Francisco – If Chip Kelly gets
THIS offense working, he really is a genius. Blaine
Gabbert, Carlos
Hyde, Torrey
Smith, Quinton
Patton and Vance
McDonald shouldn’t scare any defenses. If healthy, Hyde should
be the only fantasy-worthy option in the group and even at that
he’s an RB2 … at best. To be an RB2 he’ll need to learn how to catch
the ball, something he’s never done and stay healthy, also something
he’s never accomplished.
Seattle – The Seahawks won a Super
Bowl with defense and a running game, and if Thomas
Rawls can get, and stay, healthy they could continue that way.
However, in 2016 it appears Seattle has more than enough receiving
talent to become a pass-first team under Russell
Wilson’s leadership. They will need to be too, if fantasy owners
want to get value out of Doug
Baldwin (46.3 ADP, WR23), Tyler
Lockett (77.3 ADP, WR34) and Jermaine
Kearse. With all the mouths to feed, including tight end Jimmy
Graham, none of the wideouts is a WR1.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.
