Byes – None Until Week 5

Truths

“There is no dishonor in losing the race, there is only dishonor in not racing because you are afraid to lose.” – Garth Stein in ‘The Art of Racing in the Rain.

1) Squirrels are just rats with better PR.

Despite similar statistics, the New York fans, and likely management too, can’t wait to dump Daniel Jones, while the Jacksonville Jaguars just handed Trevor Lawrence a gigantic new contract. Don’t be blinded by media or fans, who have their own agendas, and look at the actual statistics when making any fantasy trade/start comparisons. Sometimes the numbers will surprise you.

2) Two teams in the NFL are giving up 100 yards on the ground more than they produce – Dallas and Las Vegas.

A third team, the Los Angeles Rams are at 99 yards. This can’t be good for fantasy owners with shares of these offenses. It means they spend most of their time on the bench waiting to get on the field. Additionally, they are likely behind when they get there and have to play catchup which I did a study a few years back and it doesn’t actually help quarterbacks fantasy value. Las Vegas has produced the fewest rushing yards per game (51) and is yielding 152.7 per game. The Cowboys are at 73.7 and 185.7 and the Rams at 78 and 177, respectively. Of the three, the Rams and Kyren Williams are the biggest surprise (54.7 ypg on the ground), but four touchdowns have saved his productivity. The primary cause isn’t likely Williams’ fault, but the beat up offensive line in front of him. No one expected Dallas or Las Vegas to have much production out of their backfields.

Incidentally, teams with less than 75 yards rushing per game and yielding more than 150 yards per game, historically have just an 11.9% chance of making the playoffs.

3) The Steelers may be one of the five undefeated teams at 3-0, but their offense is devoid of good fantasy options.

Justin Fields ranks 25th among quarterbacks producing 16.3 FPts/G, Najee Harris is 32nd at 10.3 FPts/G and George Pickens is 51st earning 9.7 FPts/G. At least kicker Chris Boswell and the Steelers’ defense are in the top-12. Fields did have a pretty good day in Week 3 (22.9 points), but I’m not confident he will continue at that production level.

4) Target volume equals wide receiver production.

True. Of the top-10 fantasy wideouts, seven are top-20 in targets. The only receivers seeing volume targets, but not producing well are; Amari Cooper (29 targets), D.J. Moore (28) and Courtland Sutton (27). The three are suffering from weak quarterback play. Two see passes from rookies (excusable) and one from an overrated, overpaid Deshaun Watson.

5) Tight ends continue to struggle.

True. In 2023, five tight ends averaged 13.5 FPts/G or more. Through three games, only George Kittle (14.3 FPts/G) and Dallas Goedert (13.6) can match those numbers. Only 13 tight ends across the league have caught a touchdown pass and no one has caught more than one. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Hunter Henry, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta have all disappointed fantasy owners. For those fooled by Pitts for the third consecutive season, do you also believe Lucy will finally hold the ball for Charlie Brown to kick it?

Lies

“The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others.” – Friedrich Nietzsche

1) Two Monday night football games are twice as good as one game.

Partially false. I wouldn’t mind if the two games were consecutive, but the simultaneous overlap made it much tougher to follow all the action. This will be made even worse with my Philadelphia Phillies in playoff mode. We have three more Mondays of overlapping doubleheaders (Weeks 4, 5 and 7).

2) Raise your hand if you had Malik Nabers, Chris Godwin and Jauan Jennings all top-five fantasy WRs before the season began.

Put your hands down. You might have had the talented Nabers (22.8 FPts/G), but I’m not buying anyone putting Godwin (21.4) ahead of teammate Mike Evans much less the top-five. And no one could have predicted the 49ers issues at wideout with Deebo Samuels getting hurt and Brandon Aiyuk playing poorly after a holdout and tight end Kittle missing time.

3) Volume rushing attempts equals running back production.

False. Unlike wideouts, rushing attempts are much less a guarantee of production. Only four of the top-10 running backs in attempts in PPR leagues are top-10 in production. Four of the top-10 in running back targets are also top-10 in the standings. There is more than one way to produce fantasy points.

4) You can be a top fantasy quarterback without running the ball consistently to add points to your total.

You can, but it’s certainly a lot harder. In 2023, for those with at least 10 starts, eight quarterbacks rushed for 200 yards or more and six for at least four touchdowns. Only Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy cracked the top-10 without consistently using their legs.

5) Winning games/being undefeated means your quarterback is likely helping you fantasy team.

False. Currently, only two of the five undefeated team are led by top-10 fantasy quarterbacks – Josh Allen (No.1 at 26.7 FPts/G and Sam Darnold!!! (No.5 at 22.8). Geno Smith (20.3), Patrick Mahomes (19.3) and Justin Fields are looking from outside the top-10. The remainder of the top-10 have a combined 10-12 record.