This is the only time in Flacco’s career that he’s
thrown multiple TDs in five straight games — 13 total so
far. Flacco has been cookin’, and it’s made all the
more impressive when we consider he was carpooling in early November.
He’s arguably the hottest QB in the league right now. But
with Flacco, you must take the good with the bad. Those 13 TDs
he’s thrown is against eight INTs, and those turnovers can
come in bunches. Houston has allowed the fewest passing TDs this
season (17), so Flacco could find it difficult to match his recent
productivity. But he’s simply putting up too many quality
numbers to bet against him at this point.
Amari Cooper had a career-high 1,250 yards receiving this season,
and his 17.4 yards per reception was also a career best. His YPC
was third in the league—something few people would have
expected at the start of the season. The stat line of Cooper’s
last three games is crazy: 22 receptions on 37 targets for 451
yards and three TDs. Gaudy numbers indeed. Houston’s defense
surrenders a ton of passing yards (ninth worst in the league),
but as stated above, they’ve given up the fewest TD passes.
So, we can expect a solid outing from Cooper while keeping our
hopes in check about him scoring.
Cleveland’s running game is roughly a 60/40 split between Jerome
Ford and Kareem Hunt, which can often limit the effectiveness
of each. Ford hasn’t rushed for more than 64 yards since Week
9 and has only one rushing TD in that stretch—although he did
find the end zone three times through the air in those games.
And that’s where Ford will find success. His 44 receptions are
third on the team. Look for any production from Ford to come as
a receiver.
Hunt had six rushing TDs through the first seven games he played
this season but he’s had only three in the last eight games. The
strength of Houston’s defense is limiting rushing TDs. They are
fifth best in the league in that category. Don’t expect much from
Hunt this week.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
It will be interesting to see how Stroud performs in his first
NFL playoff game. The bright lights of the league didn’t
seem to affect him too much in his first season, but of course
the playoffs are an entirely different ballgame. I like Stroud’s
poise and his experience playing big games in college, so I don’t
think this moment will be too big for him. But he faces a Cleveland
Browns defense that’s given up the fewest passing yards
in the league while also finishing the season with the third most
INTs. It will be a huge challenge for the rookie, but I think
the home field will prevent him from looking like one.
Devin Singletary was a solid performer this year relative to
his ADP, and his three games of more than 100 yards rushing were
the most of his career. He supplanted Dameon Pierce as the starting
RB, which added significant value to him as a fantasy option.
Likewise, Nico Collins had a breakout year as well. He had five
games of over 100 yards receiving while leading the team in every
receiving category despite missing three games. That said, the
Browns have one of the toughest defenses in the league, and I
expect them to make things difficult for the Texans offense. Houston
won’t shrink in the moment, but it’s going to be a tough road
for the upstart Texans.
There won’t be much production to go around in this game,
and the Browns gave up the fewest receiving yards (565) and fantasy
points (9.2 PPR/G) to tight ends this season. Schultz isn’t
much of a fantasy option this week.
With talk of weather dipping to temperatures far colder than
a Miami Dolphins team has ever faced before, it’s impossible
to look at any Dolphin as a no brainer – even Tyreek Hill.
But Hill spent the first half of his career in Kansas City, where
he’s seen these elements before. He’s also one of
the most elite and versatile talents (including 766 career rushing
yards and 6 touchdowns), which gives Miami a lot of ways to get
him the ball, no matter the conditions. Expectations should be
downgraded – definitely don’t treat him as an elite
option for this matchup - and there’s far more risk than
usual, but Hill is one of the few players who can make their fantasy
day on just one big play. If you’re bidding on him, and
the price is right (think backend WR1/high end WR2 in the regular
season), consider him a home run hitter.
It’s sounding like Raheem Mostert will be active this week.
Watch the reports, but if this remains true, expect a split in
touches between he and Achane. In brutal weather, it’s likely
that the run will be heavily leaned on, meaning both players have
a great chance to see 15+ touches. Mostert and Achane have an
incredible 32 touchdowns between them, and it will be a battle
of opposite forces versus a Kansas City defense that has given
up just 10 total touchdowns to running backs. Yardage will be
critical in a very low scoring game, and Achane has been the better
in this department, picking up 91 yards per game versus Mostert’s
79. Mostert also has a history of fumbling (including 4 this season),
making him a little more risky, not just due to recent injuries,
but also due to the possibility that he could see some bench time
if he gets sloppy in the frigid conditions. In short, if you are
taking one of the two backs, Achane is probably the safer, stronger
bet. Think of him as you would a high end RB2 for this week. Both
running backs are probably going to be leaned on, though, and
are worthy of at least flex consideration.
The NFL’s leader in passing yards faces the 4th stingiest
defense in that department, in likely sub-zero conditions after
playing in warm weather for most of his college and professional
career. The Dolphins are 1-4 in games with Tagovailoa as a starter
where the temperature in below 50, let alone zero. As a franchise,
it’s been so tough for Dolphins players to adjust to cold
conditions on the road, that they’ve lost all six playoff
games during the Super Bowl era in freezing conditions. And the
coldest of those games was 17 degrees.
On a more individual level, as solid as Tagovailoa has been this
year, it’s been eight weeks since he’s thrown for
300 yards (a time during which he’s only has two multi-touchdown
games). With just 74 rushing yards for the season, he doesn’t
offer much with his legs to make up for any shortage in passing
yards. The conditions and the opponent are going to make it very
tough for Tua to have a productive fantasy day, and there are
numerous other QB’s with vastly superior situations this
week to turn to.
Waddle’s status for this week has been given a boost by
Mike McDaniel’s optimism, but importantly, that’s
been coupled with Waddle returning to practice on a limited basis.
There’s still some risk that Waddle could miss the game,
but that has been decreasing. Of a greater risk is a stifling
Chiefs defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points
to wide receivers this year, aided by unbearable weather. Waddle
is a very good receiver (No.22 in fantasy points per game at his
position), but has been more of a backend WR2 in far more reasonable
conditions. It’s best to look another way this week.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
The lack of a 50+ yard performance over his last three games
and being blanked in the end zone over the last six games, coupled
with the weather and a good stock of playoff tight ends to choose
from knocks aging Travis Kelce out of ‘no brainer’
country. But in a game where short passes may be plentiful, a
rested Kelce has a chance to see solid volume on Saturday. He’s
not head and shoulders above other options, so if you’re
bidding, make sure the price is right.
Isiah Pacheco, the league’s No.15 running in fantasy points
per game this season, doesn’t draw the easiest opponent
in the Dolphins - 10th fewest fantasy points allowed per game
– but he is the clear lead back for the favored Chiefs who
will almost surely lean hard on the run game. With a pair of 100+
yard rushing performances in his last three games and coming off
a week of rest, Pacheco is a solid option in your RB1 slot, and
an excellent choice as an RB2.
The struggle to find stability at wide receiver outside of an
emerging Rashee Rice has rendered Patrick Mahomes numbers far
less impactful than normal. He’s still been a respectable
QB1 this year in fantasy, but not his usual elite self. Like everyone
else who makes their money in the passing game, Mahomes surely
takes a dent with the weather. His ability to make some plays
with his legs (389 rushing yards) and the fact the Chiefs offense
is built a bit more around short field passing than the Dolphins,
plus his experience with inclement weather, make him a possible
play this weekend.
Wideout Rashee Rice has been a gem of a rookie (79-938-7) and
has seen a boon of targets down the stretch, averaging 9.3 targets
over the last six games. Jalen Ramsey will likely have his eye
on Rice, this week, which could mute his output. However, Rice
is a short field receiver, with an average depth of target of
just 4.8 yards on the season, a more ideal type of receiver for
bad weather, and has been Mahomes top red zone target. That keeps
him in the flex conversation this week.
Fade: All other Chiefs receivers
At this point it may go without saying, but even in DFS format,
there is really no price point at which any Chiefs receiver not
named Rashee Rice should be considered. Especially this weekend.
There’s a good possibility of taking a zero if you take
a gamble on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James or Justin Watson.
While Pickens has experienced the higher highs in recent weeks,
Johnson has been the steadier option, posting at least 50 yards
and/or a touchdown in six of his last seven games, including a
4-89-1 line in Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore last Saturday.
He’s had a taste of the postseason as well, appearing in two playoff
games over his career -- while it’s hard to read much into those
outings since they came with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, just
having gone through it gives him a leg up on a team that’s full
of inexperience at the skill positions. The Bills could adopt
the Ravens’ strategy of doubling Pickens as well, which could
again make Johnson the main target for Mason Rudolph, and if Buffalo
makes Pittsburgh chase, the numbers could impress. The caveat
here, and for all pass catchers, is the weather, which will be
cold and likely windy.
After racking up 11 receptions, 326 yards, and 2 TDs in Weeks
16 and 17, Pickens wasn’t even targeted in Week 18, finishing
with one carry for three yards in a performance that doubtless
ruined many a fantasy owners’ day. It’s an extreme
example of the volatility that dogged Pickens throughout his second
season, as he posted five games of 100-plus yards to go with six
outings of less than 40. He led the team during the 2022 meeting
between the Bills and Steelers, fashioning a 6-83-0 line in a
blowout loss. The bottom line with Pickens is that he’s
capable of having a huge day, putting up a donut, and everything
in between. Consider him a classic risk/reward play.
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
In all honesty, Kincaid is a borderline no-brainer after finishing
an impressive debut campaign with 73 receptions, 673 yards, and
2 TDs. That includes a combined 11-171-0 line over the final two
games. That strong close was preceded by basically a month of
underwhelming results, though, as the rookie finished with fewer
than 25 yards in three of five games and never reached the 50-yard
mark; he also hasn’t scored a touchdown since Nov. 13. He figures
to be a popular target on Sunday, though, particularly if Gabe
Davis (knee) is limited or inactive due to a knee injury. The
only TD the Steelers gave up in Week 18 was to Isaiah Likely,
so there’s a lot to like with Kincaid.
As noted, Davis suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale,
and his status for Wild Card Weekend is up in the air. If he’s
inactive, all the mystery is resolved, and suddenly Khalil Shakir
moves up to become a very interesting selection. If Davis is active,
though, he becomes perhaps the most intriguing boom-or-bust option
on any of the 12 teams playing. He earned the moniker “Big Game
Gabe” from his postseason exploits, most notably his four-touchdown
effort versus KC in 2021, and he absolutely torched the Steelers
in 2022 for a 3-171-2 line a season ago. On the flip side, he
could be on a snap count or simply see a scaled back role. That
makes Davis a lottery ticket.
While they’re facing a tough Dallas pass defense that allowed
the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks
this season, the Packers head into the playoffs with one of the
hottest passing games in the league. Jordan Love has been incredible
down the stretch, having thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight
of his past nine games. He’s not much of a runner, but Love
has also been utilizing some tactical scrambling down the stretch,
including two games with a rushing touchdown over his past three
weeks.
His favorite wide receiver during this stretch has been rookie
Jayden Reed, who has now scored 15 or more fantasy points in seven
of his eight games. What’s been interesting about Reed’s usage
is that, despite Christian Watson’s injury, he’s still only been
running routes on between around 45 to 75 percent of the Packers’
passes on a weekly basis. This has meant that he’s been below
both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks in that category. That hasn’t
hurt his production, of course, but it does give him an interesting
additional upside if he does end up seeing more playing time in
the playoffs.
The Packers’ running game was hit or miss throughout most
of the regular season, but Jones has been an absolute stud when
the Packers have needed him most, compiling over 110 rushing yards
in each of Green Bay’s final three regular-season contests.
That would normally mean that he’s an obvious “favorite,”
but what’s been concerning is Jones’ lack of usage
near the goal line. He hasn’t seen a single rushing attempt
from inside the five-yard line in either of his past two games
and along with injuries, this helps paint the picture of why Jones
has scored just one touchdown since Week 1. Jones does typically
have decent usage in the passing game which can help pull him
into RB2 range, but he lacks true high-end RB1 upside at this
point.
Christian Watson has been practicing this week and could be on
the field for this weekend’s game, but there’s a reasonable
concern to be had that he is no longer the “WR1,”
and perhaps might not even be in the top two passing game targets
for Green Bay at the moment. The Packers have not had, nor have
they needed, Watson down the stretch when they’ve been among
the most successful passing games in the league, and it would
be very surprising to see him return to the field and immediately
get back to his normal usage after the success that players like
Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have had during his absence.
This isn’t to say that Watson can’t still deliver
a big play, but banking on that seems risky on the road against
a good Dallas defense.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
There’s a chance that Dak Prescott wins the NFL MVP this
season and he may also be the quarterback on the highest-scoring
DFS teams roster this week. Like Jordan Love opposite of him this
week, Prescott has been an absolute powerhouse for fantasy purposes
down the stretch, having thrown for multiple touchdowns in all
but one game since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. Now he has the
opportunity to face what is a terrible Green Bay secondary - one
that really only started to look good over their final two games
against the likes of Nick Mullens & Jaren Hall, and Justin
Fields. Prior to that, they were coming off of giving up back-to-back
300-yard passing games to Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young.
Given the weather situations in many of the other games, a home
game for the Cowboys in what is expected to be a closed stadium
should allow both of the offenses to have a chance to score plenty
of points and fantasy managers should be targeting this one.
Brandin Cooks has been far from a consistent fantasy option this
season, but we’ve now seen him score a touchdown in each
of his final three contests while having been targeted 16 times
over his final two games. That alone isn’t enough to make
him an extremely strong starter, but the weather concerns throughout
the rest of the league also play a factor in why Cooks should
probably be viewed more positively now than he has been throughout
much of the regular season.
Fading Tony Pollard wasn’t super profitable in Week 18
as he did get into the end zone, but that was also the first time
that Pollard has scored a touchdown since Week 13 and he’s
now failed to reach even 80 rushing yards since Week 3. The Cowboys’
offensive line remains banged up which hasn’t helped matters,
but Pollard’s explosiveness just has not been there this
season. The Packers were just an average matchup throughout the
regular season, but they really shut down the Panthers, Vikings,
and Bears running backs during their final three games. Normally
we don’t want to fade players who are in high-scoring offenses
like Dallas’, but Pollard hasn’t delivered a multiple-touchdown
game since Week 1, so the risks really aren’t all that bad.
There are a good number of other games this week that could see
teams forced to run the ball much more than they normally do,
so it’s probably best to target the backs in those contests.
In a weekend with some juicy subplots, Stafford’s return
to Detroit, where he spent a dozen seasons before being traded
to LA and immediately winning a Super Bowl, is by far the juiciest.
The veteran did face his old club in 2021, albeit in Los Angeles,
where he threw for 334 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. Much has changed
since then with the Lions, which field a far more competitive
defense, but it’s hard to imagine there won’t be a
little extra juice with Stafford, who, when hot, can be one of
the top quarterbacks in the NFL. He finished the season strong,
throwing 15 TDs with just 3 INTs over his final six games before
resting in Week 18. While the Lions will be fired up to stop him
-- not to mention for their first home playoff game since 1993
-- there is a lot to like about Stafford’s outlook on Sunday
night.
Everyone knows Kupp and Nacua. Did you know that Robinson racked
up 21 receptions, 319 yards, and 4 TDs over his final five games?
The veteran has emerged as the No. 3 option in LA’s passing attack,
ahead of Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell, who faded after a strong
start to the season. That he played basically no role in the Week
18 game with the 49ers speaks to how far Robinson has risen in
the pecking order. If you’re looking for a player with high upside
at a low cost, you found him.
Fade: N/A
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Given how well LA’s offense played down the stretch, it
makes sense that the Lions would want to control the clock as
much as they can to protect a defense that has been up and down
this season. The veteran definitely slowed over the course of
the season, starting the year with three 100-yard games in his
first six and then never logging more than 85 yards rushing in
any of his final eight. Perhaps that’ll mean he’s
fresh(ish) for the Rams as the team gave more and more work to
Gibbs down the stretch. Detroit will need both backs this weekend,
and Montgomery’s experience and physical style could see
his usage tick up a bit.
While the focus is on Stafford, Goff facing his former team in
the playoffs is an interesting matchup as well. The veteran put
up big numbers over the course of the season but was also prone
to turnovers during certain stretches. If anyone knows Goff’s
tendencies, it’s Sean McVay, who will doubtless try to leverage
those to gain an edge over his previous QB. This feels like a
tough matchup for Goff, who was picked off twice is his previous
meeting with the Rams. He’s been great at home, though, and Detroit
has weapons, whether Sam LaPorta (knee) plays or not. So, while
there is some downside, you can certainly view Goff as a playable
option.
It’s every coach’s nightmare to lose a key player
in a “meaningless” game, and that’s just what
happened to Dan Campbell, who chose to play his starters even
though the Lions were practically assured of being the No. 3 seed
(and could climb no higher than No. 2). The key player was LaPorta,
Detroit’s star tight end, who set rookie records during
his 86-889-10 campaign. Campbell says LaPorta has an “outside
shot” at playing, so the decision may well be made for you.
If he does play, however, you can’t expect him to be the
same after suffering a hyperextension and bone bruise seven days
earlier. It’d be very risky to plug him into a lineup.
Jalen Hurts’ struggles have been discussed at length recently,
and rightfully so. His game has seemed to bottom out, along with
the entire team. Hurts has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in
four of his last five games, including only four passing TDs in
that stretch. Of course, we can always expect production from
Hurts on the ground, but will that be enough to overcome his recent
struggles? We’re still not sure how his injured finger will affect
him, either. What looked like an offense that was humming along
during the first three months of the season looks like a shell
of itself, and we don’t quite know what to expect.
What in the world happened to A.J. Brown? He hasn’t scored
since Week 11 and hasn’t topped the century mark since Week
12. Those are numbers opposite of what we saw during the first
two months of the season when we recall Brown going for 125 receiving
yards or more in six straight contests. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith
is the perfect complementary WR to Brown—a steady and reliable
option who can serve as a team’s WR1 for short stretches.
His numbers for the season are about where they were last year,
but he remains a good No.2. The good news for this duo is the
Buccaneers give up the fourth-most passing yards in the league,
and this unit is middle of the pack when it comes to TDs allowed.
So, there’s a chance that either Brown or Smith will produce,
but the way this team has looked over the last month and a half,
it’s tough to bank on it.
The true strength of this Tampa defense is their ability to stop
the run. Nine times this season they limited opponents to less
than 100 yards on the ground, including four times under 50 yards.
D’Andre Swift won’t do much this week.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
The Eagles have given up the second-most passing yards and the
second-most TD passes this season. The Eagles are a team that
seems to be in a tailspin, and the Bucs have the personnel to
take advantage. Baker Mayfield has had a career resurgence with
career highs in passing yards and passing TDs. And Chris Godwin
has been his usual steady self as well. After the goose egg he
put up in Week 12, Godwin has gone on to have the best five-game
stretch of his season, and that should continue this week. I’m
not so sure if Philly can right its ship, leaving Tampa on the
verge of sending the defending NFC Champions home early.
