Television networks and analytics companies seem to subscribe to
the notion that it is better for them to have access to the information
many fantasy managers could use to make better drafting and lineup
decisions (knowledge is power) than it is for the general public
to be more educated about the game we love. Much as what can happen
when the conversation turns to the subject of politics, ignorance
sparks debate. In this little hobby of ours, debate then drives
some people to pay big money to get the answers they desire (or
at least ones that confirm their bias) in an effort to get an edge.
Among the many reasons I spend so much time talking about running
backs each year has to do with the relative mystery - or dare
I say the lack of intricate information available to the general
public - of their usage. Snap counts are really just the tip of
the iceberg. While playing time is a big deal, knowing snap count
numbers is no more helpful than a basketball box score that provides
nothing more than how many minutes each player played.
To that end, I thought it would be helpful to take a deeper look
into more specific usage numbers this week. More specifically,
I want to dig into specific run- and pass-game usage. While I
have repeatedly suggested I have doubts about the "educated
guesses" that Pro Football Focus has to make when grading
players and charting games, some of their information can be invaluable
when we have questions about certain players. Two weeks is still
a very small sample size to draw rock-solid conclusions, but usage
patterns are already starting to form in many cases.
For the sake of brevity, I will cover 16 teams (in alphabetical
order) this week and the other 16 next week.
Key to table below:
Tm Snaps - Total offensive snaps Tot Snaps - Player's overall snap total Snap % - Tot Snaps/Tm Snaps Opp % - The percentage of opportunities (carries
plus targets) a player is getting R Snaps - Snaps in which a run play occurred
when a player is on the field Car - Carries P Snaps - Snaps in which a pass play occurred
when a player is on the field Routes - Number of routes run Route % - How often a player is running a route
on a pass play when he is on the field T/RR % - How often a player is getting targeted
on passing plays when he is on the field YAC/A - Yards after contact per attempt
Comment: It seems nearly
impossible to believe that a team averaging 36 points through
two games would not have a single rush attempt from inside the
5. (Kyler Murray's only red zone rush was a 12-yard touchdown,
Edmonds carried inside the 10 once for no gain from the 9 and
Conner lost three yards on his only carry from the 6.) Conner
is responsible for 44.4 percent of the team's rushing attempts,
but he has only 33 percent of the team's rushing yards. He appears
to be the team's top option of the goal line, but he has yet to
get an opportunity as noted earlier. Good luck to any fantasy
manager hoping for a contribution from him in the passing game:
he has yet to be targeted on 18 routes while Edmonds has run nearly
three times as many routes (51) and seen a ball thrown in his
direction 17.6 percent of the time.
Comment: Davis was an
easy fade for me all summer. What I didn't know then was which
player was the most likely to be the player that likely relegated
him to a committee back. It turns out it was Patterson, who was
listed as a receiver on many fantasy sites (the primary reason
why he was not on my Big Boards). At any rate, the backfield usage
is shaking out almost as I expected - the only thing that has
surprised me is how quickly it has happened. Davis holds (and
likely will continue to) a significant five-carry-per-game advantage
over Patterson. He has also more than doubled him up in total
number of pass plays (70-30) and routes run (58-24), yet Patterson
has accumulated more total yards (136-135) and touchdowns (2-0).
Put another way, Davis has been on the field for 99 total snaps
and received an opportunity (carry or target) on 37.4 percent
of them. Patterson has been on the field for 48 total snaps and
been granted an opportunity on 47.9 percent of them.
Comment: The Ravens have strongly suggested publicly they will
not lean too heavily on a single running back. What is clear now
is that Murray has no business taking snaps away from Williams
unless the latter needs a break. Murray and Williams have logged
nearly the same number of rushing attempts (22-19), yet Williams
has been far superior in yards per carry (6.5-3.4) and, more importantly,
yards after contact per attempt (3.7-2.5). Somewhat interestingly,
Williams has been targeted six times on his 29 routes run (20.7
percent), while Murray and Freeman have yet to be thrown at on
18 combined routes. That could easily be a product of Lamar Jackson
being unfamiliar with the new arrivals, but it seems clear at
the moment Williams will probably see AT LEAST half of his position
group's work on the ground - more than enough for fantasy purposes
for a team that runs as much as Baltimore. It remains uncertain
if Freeman or Le'Veon Bell can get familiar enough with Jackson
at any point this season to put a dent into Williams' work in
the passing game.
Comment: We probably cannot read too much into this situation
yet considering that Moss was a scratch in Week 1. (There are
differing accounts as to why.) The one thing that stands out more
than any other above regarding this backfield is Singletary's
60 routes run on 76 pass plays (two games) versus Moss' six routes
run and eight pass plays (one game). The argument can be made
that Moss saw an opportunity on 12 of his 18 snaps in Week 2,
however, and holds a decided edge in yards after contact per attempt
(3.3-2.4). Ultimately, expect this backfield to shake out in the
same kind of way that Arizona's is trending, with Moss playing
the Conner role with limited pass-game involvement and Singletary
emulating Edmonds.
Comment: McCaffrey's usage is right in line with what his fantasy
managers expected. He has been targeted on an insane (for a running
back anyway) 32.6 percent of his routes and played on 79 percent
of his team's offensive snaps. Another notable takeaway is that
Hubbard has logged 26 snaps, suggesting the Panthers are more
comfortable taking CMC off the field for a snap or two than at
any point since his rookie year.
Comment: There are not too many surprises here either, outside
of the fact that Williams has played about half as many snaps
and trails Montgomery in pass plays (49-35) and routes run (40-28),
yet Williams has been targeted twice as much. Williams has not
been a complete non-factor as a runner, but four carries per will
not get it done in the flex spot in most leagues. Montgomery and
Justin Fields have handled all of the rushing work inside the
10 to this point as well.
Comment: The Bengals have truly committed to Mixon thus far,
as he ranks seventh among running backs in total snaps (100) and
second in snap percentage (80.6). His 40 routes run seem low when
compared to that of a committee back like Melvin Gordon (42),
but it should be noted that Cincinnati ranks 26th in the league
with 57 pass attempts (one more than Baltimore). As the Bengals
become more comfortable with Joe Burrow's health and/or ability
to avoid punishment in the weeks ahead, it's reasonable to assume
Mixon will run more routes if only because Cincinnati will likely
pass more often and play at a faster pace. (Their 124 offensive
snaps are among the fewest in the league.) Otherwise, Mixon is
the only running back keeping pace with Derrick Henry (52) in
carries with 49.
Comment: It would be easy to get carried away and suggest Hunt
is in a near-even committee with Chubb based solely on usage.
It would be more correct to say the Browns are using Hunt in the
same way they are using Chubb but saving their stud for the stretch
run. Why am I confident in this? Chubb's efficiency is off the
charts once again, as he is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and
4.4 yards after contact. (Hunt is at 4.4 and 3.1, respectively.)
Chubb has run more routes as well (27-24). Based on his usage
over the second half of last season, it is fair to assume the
Browns have taken the approach of monitoring Chubb's workload
in September and October so that he can be unleashed in November
and December. Given the current state of affairs with Cleveland's
banged-up receivers, HC Kevin Stefanski may not have a choice
but to put more on Chubb's plate earlier than he wants.
Comment: Much like Cleveland, the early statistical returns suggest
Pollard could be on his way to eating into Elliott's playing time.
When we consider HC Mike McCarthy has repeatedly said how important
it was to monitor Elliott's workload moving forward - given his
career workload - with the fact the Cowboys have already run 146
plays, it is not hard to understand why Pollard has been on the
field so much. Elliott's 114 snaps lead ALL running backs. What
is clear is that Pollard will not usually be a decoy when he is
on the field, as he has either taken a handoff or been targeted
on 56.1 percent of those plays. Therefore, Pollard is not forcing
his way into a committee so much as Dallas is highlighting his
skills with a package of plays designed to accentuate his strengths.
In that way (and probably only that way), this backfield is like
Atlanta's in that Pollard and Cordarrelle Patterson are "offensive
weapons." The major difference between the two situations
is Mike Davis isn't Elliott and wasn't signed this offseason with
the idea that he was.
Comment: Fantasy managers are advised not to lose their nerve
when it comes to this backfield. While every manager wants to
come out of September undefeated, there are 32 backfields in the
league and usually 32 stories to tell as it relates to how the
work will be distributed. Fantasy managers should be encouraged
that Williams is splitting work with Gordon almost right down
the middle thus far, although the veteran does have the edge in
the number of pass plays he has been on the field for (49-32)
and routes run (42-25). Again, this should have been expected;
Gordon has typically been very solid in the passing game. Once
again, we look to yards after contact per attempt to find that
Williams has been a more productive runner (3.0-2.3). Fantasy
managers also need to keep in mind that 70 of Gordon's 132 yards
rushing came on one run. He is sporting an average of 2.7 YPC
on his other 23 attempts. Much like Nick Chubb in Cleveland, it
is not hard to imagine the coaching staff turning the bulk of
the rushing attack over to Williams once November rolls around.
Comment: Perhaps the most
surprising thing about this backfield has been how even Swift
and Williams' receiving numbers look. One look at the number of
pass plays and routes run tells a different story, however. Swift
has more than doubled up Williams in the former (77-36) and the
latter (65-32). In fact, Swift trails only Ezekiel
Elliott in terms of routes run among running backs (68-65),
which should tell fantasy managers there is plenty of meat being
left on the bone for both players. If Detroit was a bigger threat
for positive game script, there would be reason to hold Williams
(as opposed to buying or selling) because it makes sense Detroit
wants him to be the four-minute back. However, his aforementioned
usage in the passing game - when compared to Swift's - makes Williams
worth selling high if/when possible and Swift more of a buy-low.
Comment: There was reason
to believe this summer - especially with what the team invested
last year into Dillon - that Jones would lose a bit of his rushing
workload to the second-year back and take on more of the work
on passing downs given the departure of Jamaal
Williams. While the opener was a nightmare for all parties
involved in Green Bay, Week 2 seemed to be a clear indication
that Jones will be treated as a workhorse. Even factoring in the
Week 1 disaster, Jones is at least doubling up Dillon in snaps
(73-35), rush attempts (22-9), pass plays (47-23), routes run
(34-17) and targets (8-3). Expect Dillon to get a bit more run
as the season progresses, but the notion that Jones will serve
as Green Bay's version of Alvin
Kamara and Dillon will operate in a Latavius Murray-like role
feels like a safe bet at the moment.
Comment: It would be nice to care about this backfield in fantasy
if only because the Texans only have one receiver of note and
want to rely so heavily on the run. After two games, we have three
running backs with at least 34 snaps and a good idea of what Houston
is thinking; Ingram is the early-down pounder who will serve in
that role for as long as the Texans keep things close. Johnson
is primarily the third-down and two-minute back (he has been on
the field for 36 pass plays and run 28 routes, which is more than
Ingram and Lindsay combined). Lindsay is operating as the primary
backup for both. Because Houston figures to be trailing for most
of the season, Johnson should win out for fantasy purposes (as
long as he stays healthy). Ingram's usefulness in fantasy will
likely be limited to games Houston has a chance to win.
Comment: The problem with Taylor right now is not usage - he
is almost certain to get as much as he can handle when the Colts
hold a lead - as it is his current circumstances. Carson Wentz,
the defense and the offensive line are beat up. Hines also just
happens to be one of the better scatbacks in the league, creating
a bit of a glass ceiling not unlike the one Antonio Gibson experienced
last year with Washington. To that end, Taylor only holds a 72-59
advantage in total snaps through two games. While Hines was always
going to be a thorn in the side of Taylor from a fantasy perspective,
one of the major reasons why the snap count is so close is because
Indianapolis has held the lead for just over six minutes of game
time.
The key number for Taylor above is how often he is getting the
ball when he is on the field; of the regular starters listed above,
he ranks third at 55.6 percent - right behind Damien Harris (63.2)
and Derrick Henry (57.0). When the Colts can play with a lead
for a significant amount of the game this year, it is a good bet
that will be reflected in Taylor's bottom line. Until then, he
will likely be losing more snaps to Hines than any fantasy manager
wants to see. Also keep in mind that Taylor leads the league in
rush attempts inside the 20 (12), inside the 10 (eight) and inside
the 5 (6). He will not remain with a touchdown much longer.
Comment: The good news is that after a confusing Week 1 in which
Robinson was hardly involved in the running game, Week 2 saw him
hold a 12-3 edge in rushing attempts over Hyde. Robinson has also
enjoyed a decided advantage over Hyde in passing snaps and routes
run in each game. The problem is none of these things should have
been a concern in the first place. Somewhat interestingly, both
Robinson (4.5) and Hyde (4.6) are over the usual league average
in terms of yards per carry, suggesting the Jaguars would be doing
themselves a favor if they stuck with the run a bit longer. All
in all, playing time is not a problem for Robinson, as he has
been on the field for a healthy 67.4 percent of the team's snaps.
However, it seems as though HC Urban Meyer and OC Darrell Bevell
view Robinson as more of a good lead back rather than a workhorse.
Comment: Edwards-Helaire's fumble as the Chiefs were positioning
themselves for a potential game-winning field goal is not what
anyone wanted to see and is just another reason fantasy managers
may be looking to sell for pennies on the dollar. It is fashionable
to blame him for the fumble as well because he isn't producing
at the level most expected from him (or an Andy Reid running back,
for that matter). While running backs are at least partly to blame
for any fumble they commit, they don't expect to get hit in the
backfield when running behind one of the highest-paid guards in
the league in a critical situation (which is exactly what happened
when Joe Thuney got beat versus the Ravens).
CEH is an odd case when it comes to his early struggles. On the
plus side, he has played 69 percent of the snaps (good for 13th
among all backs) and ran a route on 86 percent of the pass plays
he has been in the game (fourth among backs with at least 70 snaps).
I have been mostly impressed with the ferocity with which he has
run as well, even if his yards-per-carry and yards-per-carry per
attempt aren't very impressive. Williams doesn't appear to be
a threat either. So what gives?
One of the "lessons" the Chiefs supposedly learned
from their Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay last season was to incorporate
more short throws into the offense. No one will dispute that the
majority of those throws should go to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. However, there is no explanation as to why a running back
that Reid suggested was better than Brian Westbrook has only been
targeted on seven percent of the 43 routes he has run. (For the
sake of comparison, Ronald Jones is an afterthought in the passing
game and he is at 13.3 percent.) The excuse cannot be "let
Patrick (Mahomes) be Patrick" and have him buy time to throw
downfield on every other play. Another issue for CEH has been
the lack of plays Kansas City has run through two games. Ten teams
are averaging at least 70 plays. The Chiefs are averaging 58.
Reid has a history of underutilizing his running backs as runners,
but he has typically made up for it by making them a key part
of the passing game. Long story short, Edwards-Helaire's playing
time is not an issue. There is a significant problem with how
he is being utilized. Why has a back that handled at least 25
touches in three of his first six NFL games been trusted with
more than 15 touches only twice in 11 games since? Here is another
question: why is he being asked to run plays that aren't
a good fit for his skill set?
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
