Fantasy football drafts can often be a game of "who do ya
trust?" The industry as a whole spends too much time talking
about the first round or two when the reality is the majority
of leagues are won by what happens after that. In the spirit of
trying to accomplish two things at once, I will spend the rest
of this week focusing on players I trust the most and least outside
the top 20 of my Big Board.
Players I trust the most relative to where they are usually
drafted (position ranking on my
Big Board in parenthesis):
Let's rattle off Carson's shortcomings: he is a take-no-prisoners
runner that may run too physical, opening himself up to more contact
and likely increasing his chances of getting hurt. (To that end,
he has missed seven of a possible 48 regular-season games over
the last three seasons. The Seahawks were so petrified of his
injury history that they handed Carson a two-year deal worth $10.4
million.) That about sums up his shortcomings. While Carson did
miss four games last year (and will remain an injury risk given
his aggressive running style), he managed to set a career high
for rushing average (4.8 yards/carry), tie his previous best reception
total (37) and eclipse his previous best in receiving yardage
(287) and receiving touchdowns (four).
All Seattle did in the offseason was upgrade the offensive line
(traded for OG Gabe Jackson) and bring in a young new offensive
coordinator (former Rams pass game coordinator Shane Waldron)
to install an offense that mimics that of the team he just left.
His primary competition for backfield touches has never been able
to stay healthy (Rashaad Penny), making him as good of a bet for
a featured role as any back outside of the first two rounds. Carson's
supporting cast is as good as it has ever been and more than capable
of keeping an extra defender out of the box. Beyond injury concerns,
it is hard to poke too many holes into his fantasy resume.
Maybe Tannehill just had the quietest 40-touchdown season in
recent memory. Maybe drafters think Tennessee is Derrick
Henry and a bunch of bums after A.J.
Brown. Maybe people are fading him due to an unsustainable
TD rate. Something does not add up with where he is usually drafted
(around the eighth round) and what
he has accomplished since taking over the starting job in
Tennessee. While the transition from former OC Arthur Smith (new
Atlanta head coach) to Todd Downing is a bit of a concern, it
would be difficult to say the Titans did not at least break even
this offseason (adding Julio
Jones after Corey
Davis and Jonnu
Smith left).
The most likely explanation for the reason Tannehill continues
to be undervalued is that the majority of casual fans believe
the offense revolves around Henry and don't realize Tennessee
was tied for second in the league in total offense (6,343 yards);
the Titans were one of only five teams to average 30 points. Even
at age 33, Tannehill still serves as a viable threat as a runner
(266 rushing yards and seven TDs in 2020). Even if he is unable
to repeat either one of those numbers this season, the combination
of Brown and Jones almost screams more volume and efficiency in
the passing game. Another season with 40 total touchdowns is a
strong possibility.
Watching Jones suffer a sprained AC joint in last week's Monday
Night Football loss to the Saints makes me a bit leery about this
call, but there has been no indication his injury will be a serious
issue or even keep him from playing Week 1. With that said, he
has finished no worse than WR27 in 0.5 PPR in his last three (mostly)
healthy seasons with two top-15 finishes. That was partly a result
of scoring exactly nine touchdowns in each of those years and
playing with Matthew Stafford most of that time, yet it is hard
to knock someone who has been as consistently productive as Jones
has been.
While past performance does not guarantee future success, Jones
has been Trevor Lawrence's favorite (or at least most trusted)
target all summer long and should also maintain his preferred
standing in the offense after working with and under OC Darrell
Bevell in Detroit the last two seasons. For whatever reason, Jones
continues to go well after teammates D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault
in most drafts - sometimes as late as the double-digit rounds.
That is great value for a player who has proven multiple times
he is (and can be) a solid WR3 with a high-end WR4 floor.
Corey Davis has generated a ton of buzz (and rightfully so) with
what he did in the preseason, which was largely a function of
how often he was targeted by rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. It
is important to remember his preseason volume happened in part
because Moore did not play due to a quad injury. The rookie returned
to practice within the last week after about two weeks on the
shelf, so Davis could have cemented his place as the clear No.
1 receiver in the offense in the interim. I doubt that is the
case, however.
There are not many times I would recommend buying offseason "hype"
over camp reports or preseason action (all of which are far from
great predictors of future success), but this is one situation
in which I will buy the hype - mostly because it matches up with
what I saw from him in college. The degree to which he produced
and created separation in the SEC bodes well for him being a future
star in this league, and the offseason reports from the team's
beat writers often suggested he was the best player on the field.
When it will happen is the great unknown, but I do expect Moore
to emerge as the top option in the passing game before the end
of the season.
"Trust" is probably a strong word to use with Dillon,
although the way I mean it here is that I trust him to take advantage
of the opportunities he receives in 2021. Aaron Jones is a stud
and will continue to be a stud for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless,
I can easily see Green Bay taking a page out of the Saints' personnel
playbook and using Dillon in the same way New Orleans has used
Latavius Murray in recent years, while Jones ends up playing the
Alvin Kamara role. That may not be enough to make Dillon a weekly
starter in most fantasy leagues, but I do expect him to have some
degree of standalone value. Dillon's hands are not his best attribute,
but it is a ridiculous notion that he is a complete zero in that
regard (lack of opportunity does not always equal inability).
The point to be made here is that Dillon will not be used in
the same way Jamaal Williams was because they are not the same
kind of back, but that does not mean he cannot have a bigger role
than Williams did. With that said, the reason to draft and stash
Dillon is not to have another high-end flex option on the bench,
but rather secure a player that could be a top-10 fantasy back
if Jones misses time.
Strangely, Everett is one of those players I like for the upcoming
season but have very little exposure to with the teams I have
drafted to this point. (I have eight high-stakes teams left to
draft, however.) That is more coincidence than it is hypocrisy,
as most of my teams have Travis Kelce, Darren Waller or Mark Andrews.
Unfortunately for 75 percent of fantasy managers in 12-team leagues,
they will not get one of those three (and there are only so many
T.J. Hockensons and Kyle Pitts to go around). Much like Marvin Jones above, Everett has that little "in" with the new
play-caller in Seattle from their time together with the Rams
(Waldron). Of course, familiarity with a new play-caller would
be a poor singular reason to believe in a player for fantasy purposes.
Pro Football Focus notes that Everett leads all tight ends in
forced missed tackle rate (25 percent) since the start of the
2018 season. Russell Wilson has typically been able to make his
tight ends relevant for fantasy purposes - especially in the red
zone - and is an obvious upgrade over Jared Goff. Furthermore,
Everett's primary competition at the position (Will Dissly) has
been snake-bitten by injuries since he entered the league. While
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett could command too much of the target
share for Everett to reach his ceiling, their presence should
also guarantee Everett regularly sees a linebacker matched up
with him down the middle of the field. That is a matchup he should
win an overwhelming majority of the time.
Players I trust the least relative to where they are usually
drafted (position ranking on my
Big Board in parenthesis):
Thielen's age (31) concerns me slightly, but the bigger concern
is how much longer will he remain Kirk Cousins' primary target
in the red zone? One would have to think that Thielen's 19-10
edge in red zone targets and 13-8 advantage in targets inside
the 10 last season lean slightly more in Justin Jefferson's favor
this year. While Thielen's route-running prowess should allow
him to enjoy some degree of staying power in this offense for
at least another year or two, his high TD rate is not the only
thing that concerns me. This offense will experience a drop-off
as it transitions from former OC Gary Kubiak to his son (Klint),
so the question becomes how significant that drop-off will be.
The offensive line is in arguably worse shape than it was at the
end of last year and will no longer have the highly regarded OL
coach Rick Dennison on the field on game day to work his magic.
Thielen's route-running and red zone dominance contributes largely
to his somewhat favorable ranking above. If Cousins becomes less
reliant on him in 2021, Thielen won't come close to scoring 14
TDs again (odds are he won't do it anyway) and leave his fantasy
managers with a 70-catch receiver who falls below 1,000 yards
receiving and 10 touchdowns (making him a more expensive Marvin Jones).
I very much liked Davis as a prospect coming out of South Carolina
in 2015 (specifically after watching him in 2013). He played well
in relief of Christian McCaffrey last season. He filled in well
for brief stretches in between. That is the good news. The bad
news is he is a 28-year-old who has rushed for more than four
yards per carry once in his career (3.7 career average) and was
splitting time with Rodney Smith at the end of last year. In short,
Davis is a running back who is past his physical prime and has
yet to display any kind of efficiency. He has also never shown
an ability to consistently deliver while handling a heavy workload
for an entire season (his 146 catches in 2018 were his most prior
to last year's 224) or produced over expectation when he has been
given a chance.
The two things he has working most in his favor in 2021 are the
expectation Atlanta will be working in negative game script fairly
often (Davis can catch the ball) and the promise of a big workload
given the lack of a viable alternative in the Falcons' backfield.
When a running back's best fantasy attributes are situational
(team should trail a lot) and/or involve a perceived lack of talent
behind him on the depth chart, that should be a red flag. It would
not surprise me if Atlanta employs a committee backfield by the
end of October. It also would not surprise me if Qadree Ollison
overtakes him as a starter at some point.
I may be more conflicted about Hurts than any other player in
2021. On one hand, he is already tied for fourth in league history
with two career games of 300-plus passing yards and 60-plus rushing
yards. On the other hand, how long can fantasy managers count
on a quarterback with accuracy questions when he is also running
about 10 times per game? A case can be made that Lamar Jackson
has stayed healthy despite a heavy rushing workload since becoming
a pro, but Hurts typically takes more punishment on his runs.
How much will new HC Nick Sirianni protect him? Will he? On the
surface, the recent acquisition of Gardner Minshew should not
affect Hurts all that much either, but it is a bit odd the Eagles
didn't opt for a more athletic quarterback like Hurts. (Yes, there
is a shortage of athletic quarterbacks available, but it raises
some doubt how much Sirianni wants to build an offense around
someone like with Hurts' skill set when his backups are nothing
like him.)
There is reason to be excited about the upgrade that DeVonta Smith represents at one receiver spot, but the promise that Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins offer is exactly that at the moment …
promise. Dallas Goedert is another reason to believe in Hurts.
The offensive line should be in much better shape with RT Lane
Johnson and RG Brandon Brooks completely healthy. Thus, my conflict
with Hurts: he could easily finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback
OR get benched/injured by the end of October.
Forget for a second that Golladay spent more than half of last
season on the sideline with a hip injury and has missed a bunch
of time this summer with a hamstring issue. Golladay scored 11
times in 2019 - the one season he played in every game. He has
10 total touchdowns in his other three seasons combined (31 games).
His career catch rate is 58.1 percent. Last season (62.5) marked
the first time he bested that mark. While part of that is a function
of the deep routes (14.6 aDOT each of the last two seasons) he
ran in Detroit, former teammate Marvin Jones (13.0 and 12.7) managed
catch rates of 68.1 and 66.1 percent on slightly shorter routes.
None of this is to suggest Golladay is a bad receiver or incapable
of being a No. 1 receiver in the league. What it does suggest
is the statistical upside he possesses - at least in the mind
of fantasy managers - is based mostly on what appears to be an
outlier season. Add to that a downgrade from Matthew Stafford
to Daniel Jones and more competition for targets than he had with
the Lions and we have the makings of what could be a bumpy ride
for Golladay even if he stays healthy. A good season for Golladay
would include elite-level usage in the red zone, and that assumes
he has no more injury issues (a risky proposition for any player
who suffers a soft-tissue injury in the preseason). Can that happen
with a healthy Saquon Barkley around? Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are going to get their share of looks near the end zone
as well.
Cooks has been a favorite of mine for a while, but I do not understand
the fascination with him as a value pick this season. The most
common argument in his favor is that he has produced everywhere
he has gone despite changing teams three times since 2016. While
that is a true statement, it is also lazy analysis. The majority
of passes Cooks has caught over that time have come from Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson. Tyrod Taylor
does not belong in that discussion, and I'm not sure Davis Mills
can be expected to perform any better than Taylor will this year
if/when he gets his shot to play. The most productive receiver
Taylor has had in any season he has started the majority of his
team's games is Sammy Watkins in 2015 (56-999-8 on 90 targets
from Taylor). Watkins is the only receiver to catch more than
50 balls in a season from Taylor.
Let's say the last sentence was not enough to scare off fantasy
managers. Another common defense of Cooks being a value pick is
how often Houston will be throwing in garbage time. That assumes
at least a couple of things: 1) Taylor can be accurate enough
(and opts to throw versus run) on a consistent enough basis to
move the ball in garbage time and 2) Houston's offense is capable
of sustaining offense in general. The Texans are built similar
to the Ravens (but with nowhere near the same talent). It seems
poignant at this time to note new HC David Culley spent the last
two years as the pass game coordinator in Baltimore. In short,
this offense should be expected to try to run as much as possible
with its stable of three running backs and Taylor. We have already
established there is little hope for consistency with any of Taylor's
receivers, so what Cooks' fantasy managers have to hope for is
a repeat of Watkins' good luck in the touchdown department. The
problem with that: Houston may very well have the worst offense
in the league this year.
The arrival of Matthew
Stafford undoubtedly increases the fantasy expectations for
every key member of the Rams' offense. Based solely on the upgrade
from Jared Goff to Stafford, Higbee should be considered a near-lock
to improve on last year's TE18 finish. Unfortunately, the industry
seems to believe Stafford's history with tight ends - T.J.
Hockenson most recently and Eric
Ebron a few years ago - is enough reason to believe Higbee
is ready to reemerge as a fantasy force in the same way he did
to close out 2019. I suppose that if the Rams' offense really
takes things to the next level, a top-10 finish at his position
is possible, but I do not like his odds. Here is why:
When Higbee blew up down the stretch two years ago, he did so
in part because Brandin Cooks was getting phased out of the offense
and Gerald Everett was hurt. The 2021 edition of the Rams should
have no shortage of pass-catching options. While DeSean Jackson
and Tutu Atwell will not be key cogs in the offense, they should
combine to draw about 10 percent of the targets. The passing game
will continue to revolve around Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp -
a combination that could soak up about 45 percent of the targets.
The key differences from 2019 to 2021, however, are what should
keep Higbee in check. Van Jefferson will be a factor, especially
if HC Sean McVay decides he can rely on his preferred three-wide
packages again. The other problem for Higbee will be Jacob Harris.
It means very little that Harris will likely play a limited role
as a rookie. What means more is that when he is on the field,
there is virtually no chance he will stay in and block. Even if
Harris plays only 20 percent of the snaps in 2021, the plays he
is on the field could result in a lot more plays where Higbee
does not run a route. Harris' presence figures to be a problem
for Higbee's supporters all year.
