Personnel has a large say in what areas of the field quarterbacks throw the ball. However, being able to identify how often they throw into a certain range over a two-year period should give us an idea of what players - be it running backs, receivers and tight ends - stand to benefit the most.

As a follow-up to last week's quarterback depth of throws piece, I will focus my energy this week on what some of that data means for the pass-catchers attached to them for the 2023 season.

As noted last week, this is more of an experimental and exploratory piece designed to get readers more familiar with how quarterbacks and the pass-catchers attached to them get their yards. There are enough year-to-year changes in personnel and offensive leadership that an analysis like this has its limits. However, it does not mean that we cannot learn something from it and use it for our benefit in fantasy.

Key:

BLOS - Behind the line of scrimmage
Short - 0-9 yards
Medium - 10-19 yards
Deep - 20+ yards

Notes: The cutoff for the pass-catcher targets above was 30 in a single season. In addition, QB depth of targets are listed in BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep order. The stats listed to the right of the team are for the quarterbacks' BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep breakdown over the last two seasons. Running backs will not receive much discussion this week because the overwhelming majority of them are targeted almost exclusively behind the line of scrimmage or in the 0-9 yard range.

Ravens (Lamar Jackson)

Whom it affects: About the only thing new OC Todd Monken has promised is more passing than Baltimore ever had under former OC Greg Roman. Enough of Jackson's supporting cast (Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor) has changed to cast doubt that Jackson's history will forecast his future. What we do know is that Jackson's BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits have remained relatively constant since becoming a pro. (We can treat 2022 as more of an outlier based on the fact Jackson had virtually nothing to work with at receiver after September.) If we can treat his pre-2022 history as a guide and take Monken at his word that the Ravens will throw more often, then Mark Andrews (who saw at least 80 percent of his targets in the short and medium areas of the field over the last two seasons) could enjoy a repeat of his TE1 finish in 2021. Andrews also has the luxury of being Jackson's preferred red zone option as well, which is somewhat based on how long they have played together. The roles of Rashod Bateman (87.7 percent short and medium in 2021, 71.4 in 2022), Beckham and Flowers will be less certain. By virtue of his age and his skill set, Beckham figures to be the most likely of the receivers to absorb more of the short and medium targets, while Bateman and Flowers take more of the field-stretching routes. With that said, there should be enough volume for at least three players (Andrews and two others) to feast in a given week. Unlike most of the seasons under Roman in which Baltimore failed to reach 500 pass attempts, there is a distinct possibility Monken dials up over 600 in 2023.

Bills (Josh Allen)

Whom it affects: Stefon Diggs is obviously the headliner in Buffalo. It is probably not a coincidence that the percentage of his short (45.8 in 2021 and 47 in 2022) and medium (28, 25.8) targets align almost perfectly with Allen's. With rookie Dalton Kincaid expected to play the Cole Beasley role (from 2021) in this offense and Gabriel Davis likely to do more than stretch the field in 2022 (25-plus percent deep targets in 2021 and 2022), it should not come as a shock if Diggs takes a slight hit in receptions this year. However, he will likely make up for it with a slightly better yards-per-catch average. It would be irresponsible to simply project Devin Singletary's 2022 usage upon James Cook because they are very different players - as evidenced by the fact that 12.1 percent of Cook's targets in 2022 came between 10-19 yards (versus zero for Singletary). Following the July 24 news that Nyheim Hines will miss the season with a torn ACL, does it mean Cook has a clear path to the same kind of offensive weapon role that most expect Jahmyr Gibbs to have in Detroit?

Bengals (Joe Burrow)

Whom it affects: The biggest change from 2021 to 2022 regarding Ja'Marr Chase is that he was targeted much more often behind the line of scrimmage (24 times in 15 games in 2022 versus 15 times in 21 games in 2021). The same is true for pass attempts of 10-19 yards (31 percent of his targets in this range in 2022 versus 22.8 in 2021). His deep targets fell by almost 50 percent (25.3 percent to 12.9). Expect that to remain the case moving forward as opponents try their best to make Cincinnati work for yards as opposed to getting beat over the top by Chase. Higgins' usage has not changed much over the last two seasons and probably should not change much now. He will almost certainly be more of a field-stretcher than Chase again in 2023. The one notable change in Cincinnati over the last two seasons has been the identity of the starting tight end. Irv Smith Jr. is this year's name to know. As the table above shows, Hayden Hurst and C.J. Uzomah saw a surprisingly similar number of targets (Hurst needed four fewer games to get his total, however) and the biggest difference between the two was that Uzomah ran significantly more short routes while Hurst owned about a 10-percent edge in medium routes. Smith is more Hurst than Uzomah, so expect Smith to trend more in the former's direction. A low-end TE1 season is not out of the question for Smith.

Browns (Deshaun Watson)

Whom it affects: There is probably not much to be gained by dissecting what a rusty Watson did in six games last season. During his heyday with the Texans, Watson pushed the ball down the field with much more regularity than he did in 2022 (nearly twice as often). That would typically be good news for Donovan Peoples-Jones, but the addition of speedster Elijah Moore and the involvement of Amari Cooper (19 percent in 2022) and David Njoku (17 percent) on downfield routes probably means he will be squeezed out. Even if Moore somehow sees a huge drop in 20-plus yard targets (at least 18.6 percent in his two years with the Jets), DPJ profiles as an extreme boom/bust candidate this season. Njoku's BLOS target rate of 16.5 percent is high for a tight end and an excellent indication that HC Kevin Stefanski wants to keep him involved regardless of the upgrades in personnel and/or believes in his ability to produce yards after the catch. Cooper's BLOS/short/medium splits haven't changed much over the years, so we should expect more of the same from him - even if his involvement drops off a bit this season given the quality of the new faces. The beauty of betting on the Browns in 2023 is that Stefanski appears content building his offense around Watson, which means he will probably average more than the 28-plus throws per game he did in 2022. Assuming Watson returns to form, most of the Browns' passing game will be worth using in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Broncos (Russell Wilson)

Whom it affects: Despite the fact Denver is returning most of its important passing-game personnel in 2022, there is not much we can read into regarding the team's tendencies. Pat Shurmur coordinated the offense in 2021 and a combination of fired HC Nathaniel Hackett and OC Justin Outten shared the honors in 2022. Enter new HC Sean Payton, who created an offense that made Alvin Kamara a fantasy superstar and turned a short quarterback (Drew Brees) into a passing machine. If we assume Payton builds an offense similar to the one he did in New Orleans, it would suggest Courtland Sutton will try to emulate Michael Thomas. Jerry Jeudy could easily inherit the Emmanuel Sanders or Brandin Cooks role in this offense and Tim Patrick and/or rookie Marvin Mims will reprise the field-stretching role that once made Robert Meacham and Devery Henderson so beloved and hated at the same time in fantasy circles. Assuming Peyton feels comfortable enough with Wilson returning to his deep-ball tendencies and Wilson trusts his offensive line enough to execute that vision, it would suggest that one of Patrick or Mims could be an occasional fantasy force if he can put some distance between himself and his competition. Sutton and Jeudy have each stretched the field plenty over the last two seasons, but the former's offseason work in studying Thomas' 2019 game tape would appear to be an acknowledgment that he will work short and medium much more this season than he has over the previous two.

Texans (C.J. Stroud)

Rookie - No data

Colts (Anthony Richardson)

Rookie - No data

Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence)

Whom it affects: Calvin Ridley did the bulk of his work in the short (58.8 percent) and medium (23.5) areas of the field when we last saw him on the field (for five games in 2021) after seeing significantly more deep targets the previous two seasons (23.1 percent in 2019, 26.3 in 2020). Was his foot injury in 2021 the sole reason that this number dropped to 13.7 in 2021? Some comments Ridley made this offseason would suggest he believes that was the case. At any rate, a healthy Ridley should lead to more deep pass attempts from Lawrence, who is more than capable of hitting them on a much more regular basis than he has through two pro seasons (30.6 deep completion percentage rate in 2021, 33.3 in 2022). To that end, Ridley led the league in catches of at least 20-plus yards with 16 in his last full season (2020). Will Ridley be used similarly in Jacksonville? If so, maybe he sees 25 percent of his targets in the deep area of the field like Marvin Jones enjoyed last year. If Ridley handles the majority of deep targets, Christian Kirk should be expected to see most of his targets between 0-19 yards (77.3 percent in 2022). Much as was the case for David Njoku, fantasy managers have to like the chances of Evan Engram remaining an important part of the offense - assuming some managers still had doubts following his recent extension - after registering a BLOS target rate of 18.4 and a combined BLOS/short target rate of 73.7 percent.

Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes)

Whom it affects: No Tyreek Hill, apparently no problem for Mahomes. A quick look at the BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits from 2021 and 2022 reveals minimal difference in the areas Mahomes attacked with and without his top wide receiver. Entering his age-34 season, Travis Kelce's game will not change. He is a near-lock to be Mahomes' No. 1 read on just about short and medium throw - an area in which the tight end is routinely targeted (plus 80-percent short and medium target rate over each of the last two seasons). While Kelce should be considered the heavy favorite to lead the Chiefs in slot snaps again, Skyy Moore is expected to take over the slot-heavy role JuJu Smith-Schuster had (42.1 percent slot rate in 2022). It is a big deal considering Smith-Schuster saw 90.8 percent of his targets in the short and medium areas. The hope in Kansas City is that Kadarius Toney can evolve into the same kind of game-breaking talent Hill became before last year's trade to Miami. Toney's body will need to cooperate, but Hill's BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep 2021 split would be manna from the heavens for Toney's fantasy managers if he can stay on the field. Rookie Rashee Rice may not be penciled into an immediate role in this offense, but his contested-catch ability will eventually get him on the field. It is the one attribute he has that none of his other teammates have.

Chargers (Justin Herbert)

Whom it affects: It is often said players earn targets. Keenan Allen routinely earns about nine targets per game every year. That is unlikely to change in 2023, even after the Chargers hired Kellen Moore to call plays to emphasize the deep passing game. The fact Herbert has yet to throw more than 11.3 percent of his passes in the deep area of the field in a season is almost criminal misuse of his arm talent. Mike Williams is targeted deep at least 20-plus percent of the time year after year, so he stands to benefit as much as any Charger if Moore breathes some life into the vertical passing attack. Rookie Quentin Johnston is built like Williams, but his college tape was that of a player who appears much more comfortable in the short and medium areas - a part of the field where his run-after-catch ability can be highlighted. Herbert is certainly capable of making as many as four pass-catchers relevant for fantasy purposes (Austin Ekeler and the aforementioned receivers), but Johnston's arrival could throw some cold water on Gerald Everett's parade. Ekeler and Allen are the primary BLOS and short targets in this offense and figure to remain that way, so Everett cannot afford to have a third player vying for work in the same areas of the field where he spends most of his time.

Raiders (Jimmy Garoppolo)

Whom it affects: The fears surrounding Garoppolo's ability to get Davante Adams the ball on deep throws are legit based on his recent history, although similar things were said about Derek Carr's ability to do the same last year. Garoppolo has completed a mere 32.8 percent of passes over 20 yards in the last two years despite working with a supremely talented receiver (and tight end) group in San Francisco and the threat of a strong rushing attack. Thankfully, Adams is such a great route-runner that it probably does not matter all that much if Garoppolo struggles to stretch the field. Adams will continue to dominate; he will just do so with an average depth of target that may push his career low (8.7 in 2020) after recording a career-high aDOT of 12.8 last season. Jakobi Meyers will reunite with his former play-caller in New England (HC Josh McDaniels) and should also see a heavy dose of short and medium targets (something closer to the 72 percent he had with McDaniels in 2021 and not the 85.4 percent under then-OC Matt Patricia in 2022). With the heavy amount of volume those two receivers should see, it is worth wondering if there will be enough scraps left for former 100-catch receiver Hunter Renfrow - much less the new tight ends (rookie Michael Mayer or Austin Hooper). Renfrow's combined short and medium percentage barely changed from 2021 to 2022, yet he was rendered useless in McDaniels' offense - due in part to injury. Introducing Meyers into the offense isn't going to help matters, which is probably some of the motivation behind the recent rumors that Renfrow will be traded soon or that his spot on the roster is in jeopardy. In theory, his game aligns well with Garoppolo's. Whether McDaniels allows it to happen is another story.

Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa)

Whom it affects: If Tagovailoa's BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits don't do it, one look at Jaylen Waddle's splits above reveals all most of us need to know about the Dolphins' passing game before HC Mike McDaniel and now. As a result of the philosophical change, Waddle nearly doubled his yards per catch from 9.8 in 2021 to 18.1. This is the kind of thing that can happen when a receiver as fast and talented as Waddle is getting targeted at least 10 yards down the field 63.6 percent of the time by a quarterback as accurate as Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill developed instant chemistry with Tagovailoa, setting career highs with 119 catches and 1,710 receiving yards. The biggest differences in Hill's production were his short game usage dropped 12 percent from his final year in Kansas City while his medium and deep area usage increased by eight and six percent, respectively.

Patriots (Mac Jones)

Whom it affects: While it rarely ever seems like a good idea for fantasy managers to disregard an entire season, it might be worth it when it comes to the New England passing game. The decision to rely on Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense is still bewildering. Enter new OC Bill O'Brien, who is back for a second stint as the offensive boss in Foxboro. His first tour of duty was a good one, albeit one that lasted one season before he took the head-coaching job at Penn State. That year featured Rob Gronkowski's historic 90-1,327-17 campaign, Aaron Hernandez's career year (79-910-7) and a wildly impressive 122-1,569-9 line from Wes Welker. New England may not have a pass-catcher on its current roster capable of matching the talent from that roster, but the combination of O'Brien's history and the team's personnel makes it a strong possibility that tight ends Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry figure will be heavily involved. As a result, expect Jones' short passing rate to crawl over 50 percent in 2023. Given the offensive firepower that now resides in the AFC East, this is one situation where it makes sense for a team to rely on its (strong) defense, limit possessions and take its time moving the ball down the field. If O'Brien and HC Bill Belichick are thinking along the same lines, then Gesicki and Henry stand to benefit the most. JuJu Smith-Schuster could also benefit, but he did not get to have much of an offseason to practice with the team due to injury.

Jets (Aaron Rodgers)

Whom it affects: Rodgers' BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits over the last two seasons are probably more helpful for this article than anything the New York receivers have done recently. Joe Flacco, Mike White and Zach Wilson are not in Rodgers' class, plain and simple. Rodgers' splits indicate he is willing and able to attack all four areas of the field and understands the value of doing so. Garrett Wilson's balanced BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits are indicative of a player who is knocking on the door of being an elite option already. (As if Rodgers' comments about him being the best receiver he has worked with since Davante Adams were not enough.) Allen Lazard has seen more than 50 percent of his targets in the medium and deep areas of the field over the last two years with Rodgers in Green Bay. It would be surprising if much changed for him in that regard. Tyler Conklin may be the best tight end Rodgers has worked with since Jimmy Graham. He could also end up being Rodgers' second-favorite target in the short passing game. Coming off consecutive top-15 finishes at his position in PPR scoring and almost certain to receive the best quarterback play of his career, Conklin could vault into the low-end TE1 discussion this season.

Steelers (Kenny Pickett)

Whom it affects: The expectation should be that OC Matt Canada opens up the playbook a bit more after Pickett started to show some growth near the end of last season. However, Pittsburgh beat writers suggest the coaching staff wants the offense to remain a run-centric attack. At any rate, it will be difficult for George Pickens to realize his incredible upside if he comes anywhere close to repeating last year's deep-ball rate (35.7 percent), which helps to explain why he was such a volatile performer in 2022. Usually, a No. 2 receiver with that kind of profile means the No. 1 receiver balled out, but the Steelers struggled so much up front that Diontae Johnson's fantasy-friendly BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits did not matter all that much. To put it kindly, Pittsburgh's passing offense was doomed to fail last year with a rookie quarterback throwing deep so often behind a bad line. The line play also did Pat Freiermuth no favors. The Steelers addressed their offensive line this spring and should have the personnel to play the kind of ball-control game they were attempting last year, which should afford Pickett and Pickens more time to connect on vertical shots and increase the quarterback's accuracy on the short and medium throws to Johnson and Freiermuth.

Titans (Ryan Tannehill)

Whom it affects: Following the recent addition of DeAndre Hopkins, it probably makes more sense to focus on what Tennessee did in 2021 (with A.J. Brown around and what was left of Julio Jones at that point) than 2022 (when Robert Woods and a green Treylon Burks were the best options Tennessee had). Unsurprisingly for a team with a run threat like Derrick Henry, the Titans asked Brown and Jones to go medium or deep (50-plus rate for both players on targets of at least 10 yards). Hopkins and Burks are not exactly carbon copies of Brown and Jones, but new OC Tim Kelly will likely expect them to operate in those areas of the field at about the same rate. Chig Okonkwo probably takes the biggest hit of any Titan due to Hopkins' arrival. Hopkins drew nearly half of his targets (49.5 percent) last season in the 0-9 yard range in Arizona, which is where Okonkwo mostly lived as a rookie. It remains to be seen if Kelly's offense will be able to support three receiving options in a Henry-centric attack.