Auction drafting is my favorite way to build a fantasy football
team. While the general idea of this format is to allow every
owner an equal opportunity to acquire players, it also combines
the ability to value a player’s potential contribution with
managing a budget, all while testing a drafter’s patience.
Perhaps most importantly, it also tests the conviction a fantasy
manager has in certain players more than a snake draft ever will.
Opportunity cost is a huge consideration.
Furthermore, auction drafts reward the prepared and punish the
unprepared. In snake drafts, it is obvious to anyone using a well-organized
draft board when a player is slipping. In auctions, managers need
to be keenly aware of the available players and balance that against
their remaining funds. Owners must decide what players they like
the most and to what lengths they are willing to go to secure
their services, which is perhaps the best part of auctions - along
with the aforementioned fact that every manager has an equal opportunity
to land a player.
It has been said that you get whom your league-mates allow you
to get in snake drafts, while you get to decide exactly how you
want to build your team in auctions. I think that is a great way
to look at the difference between the two formats. It is also
why I believe auctions should be the standard way of drafting.
This coming season will mark the 16th year I have represented
FFToday in The
Huddle Expert Auction League. Over the first 15 seasons, I
have made the six-team playoff 13 times and advanced to the championship
game on eight occasions, winning it all four times. Suffice
it to say my approach has proven to be effective.
This year’s draft took place on Aug. 20, so keep that date
in mind as you review how I valued each player and the prices
they went for in this draft.
General Auction Considerations/Strategies
Below are some of the rules I live by in auctions and some of
the reasons I have enjoyed so much success in this format. There
are obviously more than 10 auction rules to observe, but this
should be a helpful list for most managers.
1. Use auction values customized to your league's
settings.
This may seem like an obvious statement, but you might be surprised
how many fantasy managers fail to do it. One size does not fit
all. For the veteran manager who wants to create his/her own (which
I recommend), this objective can be achieved by studying the values
of players in your league over the last year or two - especially
for those at the top of each position. When you can be confident
in the price ceiling for the top players at each position, it
makes valuing every other player below them much easier. My SSI
(Success Score Index) also makes assigning values easy once I
have determined what the ceiling is (or should be). I also like
to get a sense as to how many players at a particular position
go for a double-digit bid (i.e. six quarterbacks went for $10
or more, 15 running backs went for $20 or more, etc.). I set my
prices for players at what I believe should be their ceiling,
so I do not go over my valuation on a player unless there is a
specific objective I am trying to accomplish at that particular
moment. Perhaps my only exception to the last rule: I may go up
to $2 over on one of "my guys."
2. Find an easy way to identify "my guys."
Time is of the essence in most auctions, so fantasy managers
should have a quick and easy way to identify a player they are
targeting as they scroll up and down their lists. (I underlined
the players below that I specifically targeted on Aug. 20.) One
of the best features of an auction is that every fantasy manager
has the same opportunity to land each player - at least at the
beginning of the draft. If you want a certain player enough, odds
are you will probably get him - until the money starts running
out.
3. Identify the players you want as the core of your
team.
This is slightly different from the preceding paragraph in that
we are talking about selecting a group of two or three players
whom you would ideally build your team around if the draft plays
out perfectly. (Be realistic and set your sights on players from
different valuation levels.) This does not mean you set your sights
on Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Travis Kelce. It is possible
in an auction, but it makes it difficult to fill out the rest
of your roster with players good enough to support them.
4. Setting positional budgets is overrated.
While I can see how it might be helpful for the new auction player,
I have never set a pre-draft budget by position for any auction.
Much like snake drafting, fantasy owners should do whatever they
can to avoid backing themselves into a corner or creating more
obstacles for themselves. Some snake drafts shake out in a way
that it becomes obvious a receiver-heavy approach makes sense,
while others play out in a way where running backs should be the
focus. A similar thing can happen in auctions. What if your budget
for running back is 40 percent and half of the other owners' budgets
are 45-50 percent? Chances are your running back-centric focus
will need to become receiver-focused, making it one more thing
you need to adjust to on the fly. It makes more sense to figure
out before the draft how you want to build around Amon-Ra St.
Brown or Patrick Mahomes or whomever you deem as an acceptable
low-end RB1 if your initial RB-centric plan does not come to fruition.
5. Nominate with a purpose.
Nominating early in an auction draft should be about either securing
your foundation pieces or setting the expectation for a tier.
In other words, if I nominate Ja'Marr Chase and believe he is
an elite WR1, it should be because I want him or because I want
to know if I can trust my valuations for the rest of that tier.
I tend to nominate "buzzy" players in the early rounds
with an eye on trying to get my fellow league-mates to "chase
the cheese" with their virtual wallets. Other times, I will
target my nominations with an eye on getting a specific manager
to open up his/her checkbook on a player in hopes of eliminating
him/her from competition for another player at the same position
I want more.
6. It's OK to enforce prices, but do not become THE
league's price enforcer.
Just like snake drafts, auction drafting is about collecting
value. Do not allow the bidding to stop on Josh Allen at $11 (assuming
a $200 cap). Seize him at $12 and figure out how to reconfigure
your draft plan after that. With that said, your job is to build
the best team possible. Your job is not to enforce prices on every
player that is going too cheap.
7. Keep 'em guessing and do not be afraid to force
the action. At the same time, do not rush into action too quickly.
Many auction players equate the draft room to playing poker.
One of the keys to being a good poker player is never giving your
opponents a tell. Nominate players you want and ones you do not
(do the latter too much too early or else you might get stuck
with a few $1 players you do not want). Do the same with your
bidding. If you are consistently changing things up with your
nominations and your bidding, the other managers in your league
will not be able to get a read on you … which becomes important
if you play with the same managers year after year.
Do not hesitate to be the man or woman in the draft room who
knows what he or she wants. Force the action. If someone puts
out a bid and you consistently counter just as soon as the other
manager closes his/her mouth, it can make the other manager a
bit timid. Another way to force the action is to jump bid (only
on players that you know will fetch a fair amount). When a manager
puts out a $15 bid and you quickly bump it up to $25, it can be
a bit intimidating to some in the draft room.
While forcing the action can be a good thing, do not be too eager
to do it right away. Every auction is different, but it is usually
a good idea to let other managers set the market. Did Bijan Robinson
go for $40 for some reason? OK, it might end up being a soft running
back market. Did Tyreek Hill go for $60? OK, it may not be worth
your time to invest in the high-end receiver market.
8. Use your free time (i.e. sitting out an auction
on a player you have no desire to roster) to monitor the roster
needs and (especially) the budgets of the other managers. Also,
develop a sense of when to use "the hammer" when you
have it.
The first sentence should be self-explanatory. It comes into
play more in the middle part of your draft and definitely toward
the end of it. The second sentence is one of the best parts of
an auction: a player you desire is available and you have the
most money (and/or the highest max bid) remaining. For example,
Zay Flowers has somehow escaped nomination through 150 picks and
no one else in the room can bid more than $7. As long as you trust
yourself not to pursue any other eye candy, feel free to watch
other owners continue to pass him by - making him an even better
value. If that does not sound like fun (it should), then the moment
you realize you have "the hammer" is about the time
you should drop it on the rest of the room.
9. Track what your league-mates are doing.
This ties in somewhat with No. 7 and No. 8. A next-level move
for veteran auction players is to chart who bids almost exclusively
on players he/she nominates. Occasionally, a manager is guilty
of doing this. Even if only one or two managers do this in your
league's auction, it could remove them from competing against
you for another player later in the draft.
10. For the love of all that is good, do not leave
money on the table in an auction!
There is a reason this piece of advice is in virtually every
auction draft piece. There is absolutely no reason to leave an
auction with any money on the table unless there is some connection
between your auction budget and your FAAB. One of the most egregious
examples I have witnessed was in a high-stakes auction three years
ago where an owner left $17 on the table. Using this draft as
an example, $17 would allow you to do any of the following: get
Patrick Mahomes, upgrade from Travis Etienne to Breece Hall or
land Tee Higgins. DO NOT LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE!!!!
Pre-draft
My primary focus entering this draft was acquiring one top-five
running back (preferably Saquon Barkley), two other running backs
I was confident in starting, three of my top 25 receivers (including
one of my top seven), Anthony Richardson and Kyle Pitts. While
I will admit it is a dangerous proposition to target one specific
player at a position, I had fallback options (such as Kyler Murray
and Jayden Daniels at quarterback and Evan Engram at tight end)
that I was willing to pivot to if necessary. My reason for targeting
Richardson and Pitts is simple: I want players - especially at
the onesie positions - who could obliterate their draft cost.
I have also not done the best job of drafting youth in this league
in recent years, so I wanted to make that more of a priority in
this draft.
The Draft
As I have done in recent seasons, I thought it would be a good
idea if readers could access the entire auction on a
bid-by-bid basis. For those degenerates who love to see an
auction strategy unfold, analyzing a draft this way can help provide
some insight into when and why certain decisions were made.
Once again, players whose names are underlined were my targets
entering this draft, which is a task I would encourage all auction
drafters to perform before their auction drafts. The most important
thing to do here is to pick players to target from several different
tiers and expected cost valuations.
Below you will find the actual prices that secured a player’s
services in the aforementioned Huddle Auction (Hud $) and the
price I valued them at (My $). A dash in the second column means
a player was not nominated. The green highlight in the price
columns represents winning bids for FFToday. I will follow
each position group with some of my thoughts.
All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized
by “My $”. All of the players that were nominated
are included. I removed several players who are unlikely to go
in auctions in 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters or for other
common-sense reasons. The colors in the "FPos" column
give me a clear indicator of how I have players tiered at that
position.
Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1
Defense/Special Teams unit.
Quarterbacks
My $
Hud $
FPos
Player
Team
Age
PPR SSI
20
17
QB1
Patrick Mahomes
KC
28
2.1
20
16
QB2
Jalen Hurts
PHI
26
2.1
17
18
QB3
Anthony Richardson
IND
22
0.7
17
18
QB4
Lamar Jackson
BAL
27
0.7
15
18
QB5
Josh Allen
BUF
28
0.6
15
13
QB6
C.J. Stroud
HOU
22
0.0
13
4
QB7
Joe Burrow
CIN
27
-0.9
13
14
QB8
Kyler Murray
ARI
27
-0.9
11
3
QB9
Jayden Daniels
WAS
23
-1.3
11
4
QB10
Dak Prescott
DAL
31
-1.3
9
5
QB11
Jordan Love
GB
25
-2.1
8
1
QB12
Caleb Williams
CHI
22
-2.2
6
1
QB13
Brock Purdy
SF
24
-2.8
4
1
QB14
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
26
-3.0
4
1
QB15
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
24
-3.1
3
1
QB16
Jared Goff
DET
29
-3.2
2
1
QB17
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ
40
-3.6
2
-
QB18
Geno Smith
SEA
33
-3.6
2
-
QB19
Matthew Stafford
LAR
36
-3.6
2
-
QB20
Justin Herbert
LAC
26
-3.7
1
1
QB21
Kirk Cousins
ATL
36
-4.3
1
-
QB22
Daniel Jones
NYG
27
-4.4
1
-
QB23
Deshaun Watson
CLE
28
-4.4
1
3
QB24
Will Levis
TEN
25
-4.6
1
1
QB25
Baker Mayfield
TB
29
-5.0
1
1
QB26
Justin Fields
PIT
25
-5.7
Observations: Especially with the depth of the
quarterback position now, it is irresponsible for managers to spend
more than $20 on the position - specifically on one quarterback.
A case can be made that each of the top 11 quarterbacks above can
throw for at least 30 touchdowns or run for 10 touchdowns - if not
both. If you do not have a particularly strong feeling about any
of them - as I do with Richardson - do not hesitate to take the
cheapest option and spend elsewhere. I landed Joe Burrow ($4) for
$7 in the 14-team King's Classic on Aug. 10 and felt like that was
a bargain. He could be every bit as productive as C.J. Stroud ($13)
this year and was $9 cheaper in this draft. (Look at some of the
players that went for $9 below.) I may have to reconsider my stance
on Richardson over the next two weeks in auctions if Burrow and
Jordan Love ($5) consistently cost as little as they did here and
in the King's Classic.
Quarterback spending in this league has been more responsible
over the last two seasons. This is the first time in all of my
years in this league that I can remember every quarterback going
for less than $20. With that said, five of the managers in this
league - myself included - came close. I decided several days
before the draft that I would pay up for Richardson if it made
sense to do so. Although Richardson was only the second quarterback
nominated, I showed a bit of shortsightedness in paying up for
him. I should have remembered Josh Allen ($18) is generally considered
the favorite to be QB1. When Allen came up for nomination about
five minutes earlier, I should have realized that point that the
ceiling for spending at the position had likely been reached.
It's not so much that I regret getting Richardson because it is
not hard for me to build a case for him being the overall QB1
this year. I should have realized I might have been able to get
a slight discount on Patrick Mahomes ($17) and Jalen Hurts ($16)
- the two quarterbacks who I have ranked higher than Richardson.
Strategy: Especially in leagues that award four
points per passing touchdown (as this one does), I want my starting
quarterback to be a capable run threat at the very least. If I
am convinced he has massive rushing upside, then I will go the
extra mile to acquire him. If there is reason to believe that
rushing upside comes attached to a good play-caller and a coach
who will play with pace, then we are talking about most of the
ingredients it takes for a quarterback to have a special season.
If managers are not as enthralled with rushing upside at quarterback
as I am, there is nothing wrong with accepting the best bargain
of the top 10 quarterbacks above, backing him up with a $1 signal-caller
such as Brock Purdy and using those savings to spend up at another
position. Short of a truly special season by a quarterback - which
is what I projecting for Richardson - your choice at this position
probably will not make or break your season.
Total spent at QB: $19
Running Backs
My $
Hud $
FPos
Player
Team
Age
SSI
46
54
RB1
Breece Hall
NYJ
23
9.6
46
50
RB2
Christian McCaffrey
SF
28
9.6
44
52
RB3
Bijan Robinson
ATL
22
9.4
39
41
RB4
Saquon Barkley
PHI
27
6.1
37
41
RB5
Jonathan Taylor
IND
25
5.9
37
40
RB6
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET
22
5.9
34
37
RB7
Isiah Pacheco
KC
24
4.5
31
29
RB8
Derrick Henry
BAL
30
3.2
31
35
RB9
Josh Jacobs
GB
26
3.1
30
22
RB10
De'Von Achane
MIA
22
2.9
30
33
RB11
Kenneth Walker
SEA
23
2.5
30
28
RB12
Kyren Williams
LAR
23
2.5
28
26
RB13
Joe Mixon
HOU
28
2.4
28
22
RB14
Alvin Kamara
NO
29
2.2
26
37
RB15
Travis Etienne Jr.
JAC
25
1.8
25
13
RB16
James Conner
ARI
29
1.8
24
13
RB17
Aaron Jones
MIN
29
1.7
22
17
RB18
Rachaad White
TB
25
0.9
19
27
RB19
James Cook
BUF
24
0.9
18
11
RB20
Najee Harris
PIT
26
0.9
18
22
RB21
David Montgomery
DET
27
0.8
17
9
RB22
Tyjae Spears
TEN
23
0.6
16
19
RB23
Tony Pollard
TEN
27
0.5
16
20
RB24
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE
26
0.4
15
10
RB25
D'Andre Swift
CHI
25
0.1
15
16
RB26
Javonte Williams
DEN
24
0.0
13
10
RB27
Raheem Mostert
MIA
32
-0.2
13
7
RB28
Jaylen Warren
PIT
25
-0.3
13
15
RB29
Zamir White
LV
24
-0.3
12
9
RB30
Chase Brown
CIN
24
-0.3
12
11
RB31
Brian Robinson Jr.
WAS
25
-0.4
12
9
RB32
Jonathon Brooks
CAR
21
-0.4
11
9
RB33
Austin Ekeler
WAS
29
-0.2
10
5
RB34
Jerome Ford
CLE
24
-1.0
10
2
RB35
Jaleel McLaughlin
DEN
23
-1.0
7
6
RB36
Devin Singletary
NYG
26
-2.9
7
3
RB37
Blake Corum
LAR
23
-2.9
6
6
RB38
Chuba Hubbard
CAR
25
-3.2
6
6
RB39
Nick Chubb
CLE
28
-3.5
5
9
RB40
Gus Edwards
LAC
29
-3.7
5
7
RB41
Zack Moss
CIN
26
-3.8
4
5
RB42
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL
29
-4.1
3
1
RB43
Ray Davis
BUF
24
-4.4
3
2
RB44
Bucky Irving
TB
22
-4.5
3
2
RB45
Zach Charbonnet
SEA
23
-4.6
2
1
RB46
Ty Chandler
MIN
26
-5.5
2
1
RB47
Kimani Vidal
LAC
22
-5.7
2
2
RB48
Antonio Gibson
NE
26
-5.9
2
2
RB49
Khalil Herbert
CHI
26
-5.9
2
3
RB50
Tyler Allgeier
ATL
24
-6.2
2
3
RB51
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
NYG
24
-6.3
2
3
RB52
Rico Dowdle
DAL
26
-6.3
2
1
RB53
MarShawn Lloyd
GB
23
-6.4
2
1
RB54
Braelon Allen
NYJ
20
-6.5
2
1
RB55
Dylan Laube
LV
24
-6.9
2
3
RB56
Trey Benson
ARI
22
-6.9
1
1
RB57
Tank Bigsby
JAC
22
-7.2
1
-
RB58
Kendre Miller
NO
22
-7.2
1
1
RB59
Jordan Mason
SF
25
-7.3
1
-
RB60
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
KC
25
-7.5
1
1
RB61
J.K. Dobbins
LAC
25
-7.7
1
-
RB62
Roschon Johnson
CHI
23
-7.8
1
-
RB63
Dameon Pierce
HOU
24
-8.2
1
10
RB64
Jaylen Wright
MIA
21
-8.6
1
-
RB65
Keaton Mitchell
BAL
22
-9.3
1
-
RB66
Deuce Vaughn
DAL
22
-9.2
1
-
RB67
Michael Carter
ARI
25
-9.2
1
-
RB68
AJ Dillon
GB
26
-9.5
1
-
RB69
Miles Sanders
CAR
27
-9.5
1
-
RB70
Trey Sermon
IND
25
-9.7
1
3
RB71
Audric Estime
DEN
20
-9.8
1
2
RB72
Elijah Mitchell
SF
26
-11.3
1
-
RB73
Kenneth Gainwell
PHI
25
-12.7
1
1
RB73
Jamaal Williams
NO
1
1
RB74
Will Shipley
PHI
1
1
RB75
D'Onta Foreman
CLE
Observations: I find it mildly interesting that the average
price of the top 10 backs this year was the exact same number as
last year ($42). There was more of an upper class in this draft
with three backs drawing a bid of at least $50 - something that
has not happened in this league since 2021. Unsurprisingly given
how fantasy football has been trending in recent years, the overall
amount this league has spent at the position has dropped every year
since I began tracking it three years ago. Since managers spent
$1,126 at running back in 2021, it fell to $1,029 in 2022 and $922
in 2023 before reaching $889 this time around - an average of $74
per team. (That number was $94 in 2021.)
The timing of nominations tends to have a dramatic effect on
some of the prices that certain players go for in an auction -
something that most veteran players know well. Another thing most
veteran players know: desperation creeps in at the end of a perceived
tier. For example, I am reasonably certain I have Kenneth Walker
($33) ranked as high as anyone in the industry. He will probably
not go for $33 in any other auction you or I will participate
in for the rest of the summer. There is also no reason to believe
he will provide his fantasy team $20 more value than Aaron Jones
($13) will if each of them plays most of the season. James Cook
($27) may appear to have the backfield locked up in Buffalo, but
what is his upside? Is he really twice as valuable as James Conner
($13) or capable of matching Derrick Henry's ceiling ($29)?
I was mildly surprised with the relatively cool market for De'Von
Achane ($22) given the hype that has surrounded him for most
of the offseason. Part of my reasoning for nominating him early
was to get a couple of managers to open up their wallets and engage
in a bidding war. I have not been his biggest fan this summer,
but a part of me believes I should have found room for him at
his price.
Some of the best bargains at running back were three of my winning
bids - Conner, Jonathon
Brooks ($9) and Tyjae
Spears ($9) - Raheem
Mostert ($10), Najee
Harris ($11), D'Andre
Swift ($10), Blake
Corum ($3) and Ray
Davis ($1). On one hand, it is easy to understand why each
player went for the price he did. On the other hand, half of this
group will see too much volume to be priced so low and the other
half have immense contingent value.
Strategy: My advice: find your anchor at running
back who is almost guaranteed to handle 15-18 touches every week
and will serve as an important part of his team's passing game
and avoid the temptation of spending more than $20 (roughly) on
an RB2. Look no further than how running backs are compensated
now and how unpredictable coaches can be in assigning snaps to
the position - especially if the top back fumbles - as to why
it does not make sense to spend big. There are a handful of backs
seemingly locked into heavy workloads. Try to get the best deal
you can on at least one of them and lean on other positions to
carry your team. Round out your running back group with a few
high-upside handcuffs.
Every season, there is usually at least one obvious RB1 candidate
priced as a RB2 for one reason or another - be it age, injury
history or something else. The lack of bell-cow backs in the league
almost makes it impossible for fantasy managers to avoid feeling
like their RB2 spot is their weakest spot, so try to embrace it.
Conner and Aaron
Jones are two examples of players managers seem to be avoiding,
and it is not hard to understand why: both come with age concerns
and lengthy injury histories. Both players have also proven repeatedly
they can perform at a RB1 level and should see plenty of volume.
Buy the dip. Loading up on two running backs in the $30-40 range
may feel good during the draft, but it sets your team up to crash
if they succumb to injury like so many players at the position
do.
After securing my top two runners, I want to stash several backs
with massive contingent upside on my bench. The epitome of that
mindset this season is Blake
Corum. Perhaps the only thing better is to land a couple of
backs whose upside may not be contingent, which is how things
played out for me above - at least with my RB3 and RB4 selections
(Jonathon
Brooks and Tyjae
Spears). My "contingent upside backs" in this draft were Braelon
Allen and Tank
Bigsby. My only reason for adding more (Dylan
Laube and Jordan
Mason) was because I knew I would be able to put a couple
of my players on IR and felt good about my chances of adding a
couple of my late-round receivers off waivers.
Total spent at RB: $76
Wide Receivers
My $
Hud $
FPos
Player
Team
Age
SSI
51
51
WR1
Tyreek Hill
MIA
30
9.2
50
53
WR2
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
25
8.9
46
39
WR3
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
24
7.1
45
50
WR4
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
24
6.6
44
41
WR5
A.J. Brown
PHI
27
6.4
43
49
WR6
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
24
6.3
41
40
WR7
Justin Jefferson
MIN
25
6.2
39
30
WR8
Cooper Kupp
LAR
31
4.9
38
35
WR9
Puka Nacua
LAR
23
4.3
37
33
WR10
Davante Adams
LV
31
3.9
35
32
WR11
Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI
22
3.5
33
34
WR12
Drake London
ATL
23
3.1
32
30
WR13
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
25
3.1
32
23
WR14
DeVonta Smith
PHI
25
3.1
31
36
WR15
DK Metcalf
SEA
26
3.0
30
26
WR16
D.J. Moore
CHI
27
2.9
29
26
WR17
Malik Nabers
NYG
21
2.9
27
31
WR18
Chris Olave
NO
24
2.9
26
11
WR19
Terry McLaurin
WAS
28
2.7
26
25
WR20
Nico Collins
HOU
25
2.7
25
26
WR21
Stefon Diggs
HOU
30
2.7
25
20
WR22
Amari Cooper
CLE
30
2.5
23
28
WR23
Mike Evans
TB
31
2.3
23
11
WR24
Chris Godwin
TB
28
2.3
23
13
WR25
Calvin Ridley
TEN
29
2.3
22
9
WR26
Diontae Johnson
CAR
28
2.2
22
33
WR27
Deebo Samuel
SF
28
2.2
22
25
WR28
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND
26
2.2
22
22
WR29
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
26
2.2
22
14
WR30
Rashee Rice
KC
24
2.2
21
13
WR31
George Pickens
PIT
23
2.1
20
17
WR32
Tee Higgins
CIN
25
2.0
18
18
WR33
Zay Flowers
BAL
23
1.8
18
11
WR34
Christian Kirk
JAC
27
1.8
16
5
WR35
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA
22
0.7
15
6
WR36
DeAndre Hopkins
TEN
32
0.6
15
9
WR37
Keenan Allen
CHI
32
0.3
15
13
WR38
Tank Dell
HOU
24
0.2
14
11
WR39
Jayden Reed
GB
24
0.1
14
3
WR40
Marquise Brown
KC
27
0.0
13
2
WR41
Josh Downs
IND
23
-0.1
12
3
WR42
Rome Odunze
CHI
22
-0.4
12
7
WR43
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC
21
-0.6
12
10
WR44
Christian Watson
GB
25
-0.8
10
5
WR45
Courtland Sutton
DEN
28
-1.0
10
4
WR46
Rashid Shaheed
NO
25
-1.0
9
2
WR47
Darnell Mooney
ATL
26
-1.1
9
9
WR48
Ladd McConkey
LAC
22
-1.4
8
1
WR49
Brandin Cooks
DAL
30
-1.5
6
2
WR50
Tyler Lockett
SEA
31
-1.9
6
2
WR51
Demario Douglas
NE
23
-1.9
5
9
WR52
Khalil Shakir
BUF
24
-2.0
5
2
WR53
Jerry Jeudy
CLE
25
-2.1
5
6
WR54
Jakobi Meyers
LV
27
-2.1
6
5
WR55
Curtis Samuel
BUF
28
-2.2
5
12
WR56
Jameson Williams
DET
23
-2.2
5
3
WR57
Jordan Addison
MIN
22
-2.3
4
3
WR58
Joshua Palmer
LAC
24
-2.4
4
-
WR59
Demarcus Robinson
LAR
29
-2.5
4
1
WR60
Jahan Dotson
PHI
24
-2.6
4
2
WR61
Adam Thielen
CAR
34
-2.8
4
1
WR62
Rashod Bateman
BAL
24
-3.1
4
6
WR63
Romeo Doubs
GB
24
-3.1
3
-
WR64
Andrei Iosivas
CIN
24
-3.4
3
10
WR65
Xavier Worthy
KC
21
-3.8
3
3
WR66
Dontayvion Wicks
GB
23
-4.0
3
2
WR67
Xavier Legette
CAR
23
-4.4
2
-
WR68
Josh Reynolds
DEN
29
-4.6
2
-
WR69
Jalen McMillan
TB
22
-4.6
2
1
WR70
Mike Williams
NYJ
29
-5.1
2
1
WR71
Michael Wilson
ARI
24
-5.2
2
2
WR72
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG
23
-5.2
1
-
WR73
Jalin Hyatt
NYG
22
-5.3
1
1
WR74
Gabe Davis
JAC
25
-5.4
1
1
WR75
Quentin Johnston
LAC
22
-5.5
1
-
WR76
Greg Dortch
ARI
26
-5.3
1
1
WR77
Ja'Lynn Polk
NE
22
-5.5
1
1
WR78
Adonai Mitchell
IND
21
-5.7
1
1
WR79
Tyler Boyd
TEN
29
-5.8
1
-
WR80
Cedric Tillman
CLE
24
-5.8
1
-
WR81
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
25
-6.4
1
2
WR82
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN
22
-6.5
1
-
WR83
Darius Slayton
NYG
27
-6.8
1
-
WR84
Luke McCaffrey
WAS
23
-7.0
1
1
WR85
Jermaine Burton
CIN
23
-7.1
1
-
WR86
Javon Baker
NE
22
-7.1
1
9
WR87
Keon Coleman
BUF
21
-7.2
1
1
Kendrick Bourne
NE
29
1
1
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
25
1
1
Zay Jones
ARI
29
1
1
A.T. Perry
NO
24
1
1
Odell Beckham
MIA
31
1
1
Troy Franklin
DEN
21
Observations: One of my favorite things to do with this article
recently has been to record the positional spending at running back
and receiver across the league. In 2021, the number at receiver
is $961. In 2022, it increased to $1,050. Last year, it was $1,120.
This year, the number was $1,141. Assuming every manager spends
every dollar possible (one team spent $195 in this one), it means
47.5 percent of the $2,400 auction money available was spent on
the position - an average of $95 per team. More receivers are being
drafted every year (82 in this draft and 81 last year) and more
are coming with high price tags.
In 2021 and 2022, 11 receivers received bids of at least $30.
In 2023, that number was 14. This year, it was 16. Over the last
three drafts in this league, at least 38 receivers have attracted
a bid of at least $10 - the number this year. It was 41 in 2022
and 40 in 2023.
Even though this league - and I would assume most auction leagues
nowadays - sinks nearly 45 percent of their budget at receiver,
the depth at the position has become so good that almost every
manager can get big-time value if they remain patient. Calvin
Ridley ($13) is poised to play the Ja'Marr
Chase role in Tennessee this year. I do not care what happened
last year; Jacksonville did not utilize him well and he still
finished as a top 20 receiver. He is mispriced as a WR3. Chris
Godwin ($11) is set to return to his home in the slot - a
position he thrived in a few years ago. Baker
Mayfield may not be Tom
Brady, but new OC Liam Coen has a history of leaning heavily
on his slot. Godwin is as good of a bet as any player in my yellow
tier to live up to and/or exceed his draft cost. Terry
McLaurin ($11) is poised to have his best year yet with the
best quarterback he has played with in Washington, yet he is being
priced for his WR32 finish last season. While Diontae
Johnson ($9) seems to be the favorite sleeper pick of many
and could push for 90 or more catches, I was able to secure him
as my regular flex option for less than $10 about halfway through
the draft.
As an aside, I continue to be confounded by the notion that Xavier Worthy ($10) is going to be more of a fantasy factor this year
than Marquise Brown ($3). Not only does Worthy go before Brown
now in every draft I have been a part of lately, but I am shocked
by the separation between the two. At worst, I think the two end
up splitting snaps late in the season. At best, Brown proves what
he has already proven at two different stops: he is more than
capable of being a team's primary receiver when healthy. That
means a lot when the receiver plays in the same offense as Patrick Mahomes.
Strategy: Year after year, there is one team
in this league that drops an inordinate amount of money at receiver
and tries to piece it together everywhere else. This year, this
team spent $148 at the position, highlighted by his winning auctions
for CeeDee Lamb ($53), Tyreek Hill ($51) and Nico Collins ($25).
Last season, this same manager paid around $130 for receivers.
There is something to be said about any manager who has enough
confidence in his ability to hit on enough late-round picks or
work the waiver wire to address likely shortcomings at four or
five fantasy positions (QB1, maybe RB1, RB2, TE and occasionally
FLEX). With that said, there is a strong chance one of the managers
in your auction league will employ a similar strategy, so be prepared
to pivot to another top-seven option at receiver if your auction
plan depends somewhat on landing one. (I recommend getting at
least one elite option, but I do not think it is necessary if
you can get two high-end WR2s.)
There are around 40 receivers I would be comfortable starting
most weeks and probably another 10 who do not need to do much
to earn my trust. I would argue that managers should try to grab
one of the top seven wideouts above, add another receiver inside
my top 18 and settle for the two best values they can find after
that (preferably no more than $12-13 on either one). In my opinion,
the green tier above is full of rock-solid WR1s and the blue tier
is full of rock-solid WR2s. The yellow tier is essentially a group
of almost 20 players that should be considered WR3s but will probably
dabble with WR1 production from time to time. That is how deep
the middle class of receivers has become. DeAndre Hopkins ($6),
Rome Odunze ($3) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5) are perfect examples
of how deep the position is. All three should be serviceable WR3s
at some point. Value will fall into your lap at this position
if you are patient enough.
The beauty of this year's drafts - especially in auctions - is
that there are enough options at receiver to grab four reasonably
priced options to occupy starting spots and still feel good about
taking some swings on players being discounted due to injury,
such as Marquise
Brown and Josh
Downs. Bye weeks do not start until Week 5, which should be
more than enough time for Brown (shoulder, chest) and Downs (knee)
to heal.
Total spent at WR: $89
Tight Ends
My $
Hud $
FPos
Player
Team
Age
SSI
21
26
TE1
Travis Kelce
KC
34
2.1
20
21
TE2
Sam LaPorta
DET
23
1.8
18
15
TE3
Kyle Pitts
ATL
23
1.3
18
21
TE4
Mark Andrews
BAL
28
0.9
16
12
TE5
Evan Engram
JAC
29
0.6
15
22
TE9
Dalton Kincaid
BUF
24
0.5
14
20
TE6
Trey McBride
ARI
24
0.3
13
16
TE7
George Kittle
SF
30
0.3
10
7
TE8
Jake Ferguson
DAL
25
0.1
9
5
TE10
David Njoku
CLE
28
-1.8
8
1
TE11
Pat Freiermuth
PIT
25
-1.9
4
5
TE12
Brock Bowers
LV
21
-2.6
4
1
TE13
Tyler Conklin
NYJ
29
-2.7
4
3
TE14
Dalton Schultz
HOU
28
-2.8
4
2
TE15
Dallas Goedert
PHI
29
-4.1
2
1
TE16
Noah Fant
SEA
26
-4.7
2
1
TE17
Juwan Johnson
NO
27
-4.8
2
2
TE18
T.J. Hockenson
MIN
27
-4.8
1
1
TE19
Jonnu Smith
MIA
29
-5.2
1
-
TE20
Taysom Hill
NO
34
-5.7
1
2
TE21
Mike Gesicki
CIN
28
-5.9
1
-
TE22
Colby Parkinson
LAR
25
-6.1
1
1
TE23
Isaiah Likely
BAL
24
-4.8
1
2
TE24
Cole Kmet
CHI
25
-6.4
1
1
TE25
Hunter Henry
NE
29
-6.7
1
1
TE26
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TEN
24
-7.0
1
-
TE27
Cade Otton
TB
25
-7.6
1
-
TE28
Ben Sinnott
WAS
22
-8.0
1
1
TE29
Luke Musgrave
GB
23
-8.1
1
-
TE30
Michael Mayer
LV
23
-8.5
1
-
TE31
Greg Dulcich
DEN
24
-9.0
1
-
TE32
Theo Johnson
NYG
23
-9.2
1
1
TE33
Zach Ertz
WAS
33
Observations: Following a year in which Travis Kelce was
regularly pushing $40 in auction drafts, he returned to his more
normal rate of $26 in this league. I do not recall ever having
five tight ends draw bids of at least $20, which understandably
reflects what most of us are seeing in snake drafts: the masses
believe there are a handful of strong candidates ready to challenge
for the overall TE1 throne.
George Kittle ($16) going for four dollars more than Evan Engram
($12) was a bit of a surprise but also understandable. Desperation
likely set in during a tight end run that saw Engram, Trey McBride
($20), Brock Bowers ($5), Dalton Kincaid ($22), Mark Andrews ($21)
and Kittle put up for bid over the course of eight nominations
about halfway through the draft.
There have been mixed opinions on Pat Freiermuth ($1) all summer
long, but it is hard to quibble with his price in this draft.
He enters the season as the clear second-best option in the passing
game in Pittsburgh. That has to mean something, as even the most
run-heavy team needs to find players to handle 400-plus targets.
(George Pickens probably may not get past 130 and he will almost
certainly not push 150.) Tyler Conklin ($1) is in a similar boat
as Freiermuth. I may be down on Dallas Goedert ($2) as well this
year, but he is a solid bet to post low-end TE1 numbers in at
least half of his games this year. That is worth at least two
dollars. (For those wondering, Taysom Hill is listed only as a
quarterback on MFL, so he was not drafted.)
Strategy: Much as I have advocated at other
positions, I have no desire to pay top dollar for any player when
I believe at least two or three other options will perform at
a similar level at a lower cost. With very few exceptions, I do
not enter a draft saying I must have any one player. However,
I did enter this one expecting to come away with Kyle Pitts ($15)
- so long as he came at a palatable price. As it turned out, only
Pitts and Engram came off at a price lower than my valuation -
at least among my top eight tight ends. The truth of the matter
is I would be happy with any of the eight at the right price.
One of the great things about auctions is what tends to happen
at tight end. If there is a middle class of tight ends, it is
usually small. Additionally, assuming there is a middle class
of tight ends, their price is usually quite reasonable. It can
be quite tempting to pass on the bigger names, spend about $12
to pair up low-end TE1 options such as Jake Ferguson ($7) and
David Njoku ($5) and use the $4-8 of savings at another position
while also solidifying high-end depth at the position. I can even
make a strong case for spending $2-3 on T.J. Hockenson if you
can use the IR spot on him in your league. I do not expect him
to provide much in the way of useful fantasy production for the
first two or so months of the season, but I do believe he has
a reasonable chance to be a difference-maker by the start of the
fantasy playoffs.
Total spent at TE: $15
Kickers
My $
Hud $
Player
Tm
Age
1
3
Brandon Aubrey
DAL
29
1
2
Justin Tucker
BAL
34
1
1
Younghoe Koo
ATL
30
1
1
Harrison Butker
KC
29
1
-
Jake Moody
SF
24
1
1
Evan McPherson
CIN
25
1
-
Daniel Carlson
LV
29
1
-
Joshua Karty
LAR
22
1
1
Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU
30
1
1
Jake Elliott
PHI
29
1
1
Matt Gay
IND
30
1
1
Cameron Dicker
LAC
24
1
-
Dustin Hopkins
CLE
33
1
-
Cairo Santos
CHI
32
1
-
Tyler Bass
BUF
27
1
-
Greg Zuerlein
NYJ
36
1
1
Jason Sanders
MIA
28
Observations/strategy: Year after year, I look
for the same qualities in a kicker. I want someone with a strong
leg in a good offense. Additionally, I often target kickers who
play on teams with good or great defenses since coaches are more
apt to settle for field goals when they are confident in their defense.
Short of that, I look for a kicker on a team that I believe will
have a good offense but will bog down in the red zone because it
lacks a strong running attack. We found out shortly before the start
of the draft that we would not be required to draft a kicker or
D/ST this year, so I decided to take advantage of it by adding another
position player. I felt confident at least one or two of my top
12 kickers would go undrafted. It turned out three of them did,
so I will likely choose between Jake Moody, Daniel Carlson and Joshua Karty in a couple of weeks once waivers ends in this league.
Total spent at K: $0
Defense / ST
My $
Hud $
Team
1
2
Jets
1
1
Bears
1
-
Falcons
1
2
Browns
1
2
49ers
1
1
Texans
1
2
Eagles
1
2
Ravens
1
1
Cowboys
1
-
Lions
1
1
Steelers
1
-
Raiders
1
1
Colts
1
1
Saints
Observations/strategy: Conventional wisdom says
no one should spend more than one dollar on defense. In previous
years, I have generally advocated spending an extra dollar to get
one you love - assuming such an option exists. Last year, I felt
very good about the Cowboys' D/ST and it paid off nicely for a large
part of the season. I would not say I have that kind of feeling
about any D/ST this year. With that said, the Bears' D/ST played
exceptionally well once DE Montez Sweat joined the fray around midseason.
Chicago likely only improved its talent on that side of the ball
during the offseason, so I feel good the Bears can pick up defensively
where they left off at the end of last year.
I like this team a lot. It has been a long time since I exited
an auction with at least four likely starters at running back
AND at receiver in this league. Never mind the fact I landed my
dark horse overall QB1 and TE1 choices. If HC Shane Steichen unleashes
Richardson as I believe he will, I think 800-plus rushing yards
and 10-plus rushing touchdowns are a strong possibility. As far
as Pitts is concerned, I made the case for him in my final summation
of the PPR Big Board earlier this week: T.J. Hockenson amassed
113 catches on 154 targets for 997 yards and six touchdowns in
18 games with Kirk Cousins. Pitts is arguably the most athletic
tight end in league history, so I don't think it is asking too
much to expect Cousins to lean on him at a similar rate. Think
about that: not only will Pitts be healthy for the first time
since the middle part of the 2022 season, but he will also be
playing with the best quarterback he has played with in his career.
As optimistic as I am about both positions, I acknowledge quarterback
and tight end are my biggest question marks - if only because
Richardson is unproven and Pitts has disappointed fantasy managers
in consecutive seasons. My biggest weakness may be the amount
of injury risk I decided to take on with Conner and Brooks (and
Richardson, for that matter). The thing with Conner is that he
is being devalued mostly because every conversation about him
seems to start with him missing three or four games every year.
It is a fair point, but a high percentage of featured backs are
going to miss at least one or two. When he plays, he usually flirts
with RB1 production. I believe that the Eagles intend to see if
Barkley can be their version of Christian McCaffrey. I recognize
Barkley will not match CMC's receiving numbers, but it makes sense
to me why Philadelphia signed him: reduce the team's reliance
on the "Brotherly Shove" in the post-Jason Kelce era
and increase the efficiency of the rushing attack as a whole.
Brooks was a luxury pick I do not expect to contribute to my team
until November. Spears ($9) is oddly undervalued considering he
should be on near-equal footing as teammate Tony Pollard ($19).
Allen may quickly become a top-five handcuff, while Bigsby appears
to be meeting the expectations many had for him as a rookie in
2023.
With that said, I believe the strength of my team is at receiver.
Harrison, Ridley and Johnson will be considered the alpha receivers
on their respective teams. Kupp might still be that in Los Angeles,
although I expect him and Puka Nacua to be more of a 1A/1B combo.
Either way, I landed four of my top 26 receivers, including two
potential WR1s in Harrison and Kupp. I intend to add at least
one more receiver and a kicker with my two open spots - courtesy
of Brooks and Brown being IR-eligible - to round things out. I
think this is a playoff team even if Richardson and Pitts fall
flat on their faces and a potentially dominant fantasy team if
both players meet my expectations.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.