DraftKings

Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player, followed by his projected point total. I will not spend a great deal of time explaining each projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.

Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends:
P Yds - Passing Yards
P TD - Passing Touchdowns
INT - Interceptions
Ru Yds - Rushing Yards
Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns
Rec Yds - Receiving Yards
Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns
Rec - Receptions

Goff finally put worries about his home-road splits to rest this season, averaging 282.4 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns in nine home outings versus 260.9 yards and two touchdowns in eight road tilts. (He threw six interceptions at home and on the road.) Fortunately for those who still doubt him, Detroit will not be leaving Ford Field unless it makes the Super Bowl. The Commanders have been one of the stingiest defenses against fantasy quarterbacks this season, although it should be noted the only reputable signal-caller they faced for a full game before Baker Mayfield last week was Jalen Hurts in Week 11. There is little doubt Washington's defense is better now than it was early in the season, but the Lions are a different animal offensively, as they are a threat to score 40 points against any opponent.

The strange thing about the Bills' Week 4 loss at Baltimore was that it happened at a time during which the Ravens were routinely giving up at least 400 yards of offense. The "new" Ravens (beginning in Week 11 once Baltimore asked S Kyle Hamilton to play more center field and less strong safety) have yielded more than 20 points and 300 total yards only twice in their last eight contests. One constant has been a stout run defense, which means Allen may be needed to do more in this game than he has all season. Fortunately for the Bills, they have been a juggernaut at home this year, going 9-0 while scoring at least 30 points in all but one contest. Allen's play has reflected that, posting a 19:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while only taking seven sacks.

Daniels is another quarterback I would consider using this week. Lions DC Aaron Glenn put together a solid game plan to frustrate Sam Darnold in Week 18, but that alone should not make DFS players forget the previous three weeks in which Josh Allen, Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy averaged 358 yards passing and 3.3 TDs. Detroit-Washington should be a shootout, so managers should invest heavily in this contest. The Commanders cannot be expected to match touchdowns with Detroit, but a three-score day for Daniels is easily within the range of outcomes.

It might be a bit too early to say Mahomes is back to being a fantasy force, but it is likely more than coincidence that two of his four best fantasy efforts of the season occurred in the two games Marquise Brown was active. Don't forget that both games came shortly after Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain AND on short rest. The onus will almost certainly fall on Mahomes to carry the offense this week considering the Texans have been one of the stingiest run defenses all season long and the Chiefs' o-line issues. On the plus side, he has more weapons at his disposal now than at any time during his NFL career.

Running Backs Player Tm DK $ Ru Att Ru Yds Ru TDs Tgt Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs DK Saquon Barkley PHI $8,200 28 176 1 2 2 9 0 29.5 Derrick Henry BAL $8,000 24 162 1 1 1 12 0 27.4 Jahmyr Gibbs DET $7,700 17 96 1 6 5 56 0 26.2 Kyren Williams LAR $6,900 17 71 1 2 2 17 0 16.8 Austin Ekeler WAS $5,100 7 31 0 5 4 29 1 16.0 David Montgomery DET $5,700 11 54 1 2 2 17 0 15.1 Kareem Hunt KC $5,000 10 35 0 1 1 4 1 10.9 Justice Hill BAL $4,800 4 26 0 4 4 41 0 10.7 Joe Mixon HOU $6,500 15 64 0 3 2 14 0 9.8 James Cook BUF $6,700 16 63 0 2 1 8 0 8.1 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS $5,300 11 34 0 3 2 17 0 7.1 Isiah Pacheco KC $5,500 8 28 0 3 2 15 0 6.3 Ty Johnson BUF $4,500 5 19 0 3 2 21 0 6.0 Kenneth Gainwell PHI $4,700 4 22 0 3 2 16 0 5.8 Samaje Perine KC $4,300 1 3 0 2 2 21 0 4.4 Dare Ogunbowale HOU $4,000 0 0 0 1 1 7 0 1.7 Ronnie Rivers LAR $4,100 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 Dameon Pierce HOU $4,200 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0.5

After beginning the season somewhat reluctant to give Henry his usual workload, Baltimore is making up for lost time. Not only has he handled at least 20 carries in four straight, but Henry has also scored five times in his last three outings and rushed for at least 138 yards in four straight. His best game of the year (rushing and in fantasy) came in the first meeting against the Bills (199 yards and a touchdown on the ground, three catches for 10 yards and a TD through the air). While Buffalo's run defense is not the sieve some make it out to be, few defenses have the personnel on defense to hold up against Lamar Jackson's speed and Henry's power for four quarters. The Bills will be happy to have LB Matt Milano in the middle of their defense this time around (he was injured for the Week 4 meeting), but their attention to alignment and assignment will need to be much sharper this time around if they hope to keep Baltimore's running game somewhat in check.

Although he is only $500 cheaper than Barkley and $300 cheaper than Henry, the slight discount DFS players will get with Gibbs this weekend may be the difference between being able to start a solid flex option as opposed to punting a position. The reason for his discount is obvious: when Gibbs and Montgomery were both healthy this season, their workload was almost identical as rushers. Even if that ends up being the case this week, Gibbs has already proven over two seasons that he can deliver RB1 production as a part-timer. In the more likely scenario that Montgomery is eased back in versus the Commanders, Gibbs could be poised for a fifth straight week of overall RB1-caliber numbers.

Williams has not seen the same kind of volume over his last two games that he did for most of the regular season and seems unlikely to change that this weekend. The Eagles were the second-worst matchup for running backs this year and allowed only one to top 20 fantasy points (Chuba Hubbard in Week 14). The Rams have not featured Williams as a pass-catcher very often, meaning he will likely need to fall into the end zone to be worth using in DFS. Counting on a score from Williams this week will likely be a losing bet against a Philadelphia defense that has surrendered just six TDs to running backs this season (including last week).

Winning DFS lineups will almost certainly feature one of the first four backs above. After that, I would be more inclined to roll the dice on a sub-$5,500 back (such as Ekeler, Hill or Johnson) than hope players like higher-volume options such as Mixon or Cook overcome their difficult matchups. It is easy to make a case for Montgomery, but it seems unlikely Detroit will ask him to handle his usual workload immediately following a long layoff - especially considering how effective Gibbs was in his absence. The Chiefs were the worst matchup for running backs during the regular season and did not give up 20 fantasy points to any running back. The only two that came close benefited from good touchdown luck (James Cook, two TDs) or a big-play touchdown (Jerome Ford). Mixon is capable of breaking through, but he would be doing so against a Kansas City defense that is as healthy as it has been all season. Henry (107) was the only running back to rush for more than 63 yards against the Ravens all year, so Cook is also a poor bet this weekend.

Hill and Johnson are strong low-cost options this week for the same reason they were last week. Both are explosive players who do most of their best work in the passing game in a contest that should be high-scoring. Johnson should get a slight bump over last week given the likelihood that Ray Davis (concussion) is active. Even if Davis clears the league's protocol in time, Johnson appears to be the preferred option on third down. My preferred RB2 option will be Ekeler given the likelihood that Washington will be chasing points at some point in the second half. He is only slightly more expensive than Hill or Johnson and has a much better chance to lead his backfield in touches.

Pacheco is a complete wild card. The two-plus weeks he has had off since Week 17 likely helped him, but the leg injury that sidelined him for most of the season is one that fantasy managers should probably not expect him to recover fully from until next season. It is worth sprinkling him into lineups if you feel differently about his recovery, but he should not be considered a key part of any DFS strategy.

Wide Receivers Player Tm DK$ Ru Att Ru Yds Ru TDs Tgt Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs DK Amon-Ra St. Brown DET $7,200 11 9 107 1 28.7 Xavier Worthy KC $5,200 2 23 0 8 5 77 1 21.0 Terry McLaurin WAS $6,300 9 7 73 1 20.3 A.J. Brown PHI $7,000 8 6 74 1 19.4 Rashod Bateman BAL $4,900 7 5 78 1 18.8 Puka Nacua LAR $7,400 12 8 104 0 18.4 Jameson Williams DET $6,100 7 5 65 1 17.5 Nico Collins HOU $7,600 12 7 84 0 15.4 Cooper Kupp LAR $5,400 4 3 32 1 12.2 Olamide Zaccheaus WAS $4,300 5 3 29 1 11.9 Keon Coleman BUF $4,100 4 2 27 1 10.7 DeVonta Smith PHI $5,600 6 5 56 0 10.6 Khalil Shakir BUF $5,000 7 5 51 0 10.1 Marquise Brown KC $4,200 6 4 54 0 9.4 Dyami Brown WAS $3,900 4 3 51 0 8.1 Amari Cooper BUF $4,400 4 3 40 0 7.0 John Metchie HOU $3,800 6 3 34 0 6.4 DeAndre Hopkins KC $4,700 4 3 33 0 6.3 Curtis Samuel BUF $3,400 3 2 32 0 5.2 Robert Woods HOU $3,600 4 2.0 17 0 3.7 Demarcus Robinson LAR $4,000 3 1.0 22 0 3.2 Anthony Miller BAL $3,000 2 2.0 10 0 3.0 Mack Hollins BUF $3,500 2 1 13 0 2.3 Tylan Wallace BAL $3,000 1 1 12 0 2.2 Tim Patrick DET $3,700 2 1 12 0 2.2 Justin Watson KC $3,200 1 1 12 0 2.2 Jahan Dotson PHI $3,600 1 1 8 0 1.8 Xavier Hutchinson HOU $3,200 1 1 8 0 1.8 Nelson Agholor BAL $3,300 2 1 4 0 1.4

Worthy appeared to become the featured receiver in Kansas City as the season came to a close, earning at least nine targets (and 11 opportunities including his work as a rusher) over his final three outings while scoring at least 19.6 fantasy points in each one. One of those games came in Week 16 against the Texans (7-65-1). He seems unlikely to draw a shadow from stud CB Derek Stingley Jr. this weekend given the presence of Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. One can also make the case he has not come close to hitting his upside because so many of his targets are coming inside 10 yards. It is only a matter of time before the fastest man in NFL Scouting Combine history sees an extra target or two down the field. What better time than the playoffs for that to happen? If/when it does, Worthy could push for 30 or more fantasy points.

This weekend is setting up for another big game from McLaurin. That is not so much an indictment of Detroit's struggles against receivers this season as it is an acknowledgment that secondary pieces such as Zach Ertz will likely be held in check. While Dyami Brown has started to come on in recent weeks and Zaccheaus flashed before that, the Lions have enough quality cornerback depth to contain them. Although CB Terrion Arnold has played well as a rookie, Detroit does not have an answer for McLaurin. Long story short, if Detroit-Washington is going to be the high-scoring affair many believe it will be, it will almost certainly happen because Jayden Daniels and McLaurin are driving the bus. The running game and the Commanders' complementary receivers will not be leading the way.

The beautiful thing about the four receivers I have already discussed is that three of them are priced at $6,300 or lower. That should allow DFS players to include another high-upside option at a reasonable cost such as Bateman, who will likely be called upon more often this week after drawing two targets last week against the Steelers. (Bear in mind Lamar Jackson only attempted 21 throws and did not need to force the issue with most of them.) Bateman has scored at least once in six of his last eight outings and will once again work as Baltimore's top receiver after Zay Flowers (knee) was ruled out on Thursday. Assuming the weather in Buffalo is not too wintry and the high-scoring game that most expect happens, Bateman could see something approaching his season high of eight targets. On the three occasions this season he hit that mark, he scored no fewer than 15.8 fantasy points.

Nacua has proven himself over a long enough period of time to assume he can overcome a difficult matchup. What he lacks is the same thing that haunted him for long stretches as a rookie - a lack of involvement in the red zone. I would not hesitate to use him as a contrarian play, but his matchup with the Eagles is not likely to lead to a 12-150-0 or 5-80-2 kind of line. He may get his 20 points against the likes of Cooper DeJean and/or Quinyon Mitchell, but he lacks the same upside St. Brown has this week and is priced slightly higher.

Outside of Bateman, my other favorite low-cost receiver this week is Marquise Brown. Although he did not play his first game until Dec. 21, Brown quickly established chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, drawing at least seven targets in two outings despite playing less than half of the team's offensive snaps. Put another way, Brown was targeted on at least 28 percent of the plays he was in the game in Weeks 16 and 17. If the two weeks off allowed Mahomes and Brown to get to know each other better and Brown plays even 60 percent of the snaps this weekend, he has Worthy-like upside.

Tight Ends Player Tm DK$ Tgt Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs DK Travis Kelce KC $5,000 8 6 73 1 19.3 Dalton Schultz HOU $3,300 7 5 58 1 16.8 Sam LaPorta DET $4,200 7 5 51 1 16.1 Dalton Kincaid BUF $3,700 4 3 38 1 12.8 Mark Andrews BAL $4,500 5 3 38 1 12.8 Tyler Higbee LAR $3,400 8 6 66 0 12.6 Dallas Goedert PHI $3,900 6 5 54 0 10.4 Isaiah Likely BAL $3,500 4 3 42 0 7.2 Zach Ertz WAS $4,000 6 4 30 0 7.0 Dawson Knox BUF $2,700 3 2 18 0 3.8 Colby Parkinson LAR $2,900 2 1 8 0 1.8 Noah Gray KC $3,000 2 1 7 0 1.7 Grant Calcaterra PHI $2,800 1 1 6 0 1.6 John Bates WAS $2,500 1 1 5 0 1.5 Teagan Quitoriano HOU $2,500 1 1 4 0 1.4

This should be a good week for tight end production, so I would be hesitant to pay up for Kelce ($5,000). While it is true that Kansas City could unleash him for the playoffs (as was the plan entering the season), it has become clear at this point that LaPorta is once again a big part of the offense in Detroit. If I want to spend up at the position, I would rather do it for a cheaper player tied to a better offense in what should be a high-scoring game.

With that said, the play of the week SHOULD be Schultz. Not only did he have his second-highest fantasy point total of the season in Week 16 versus the Chiefs, but Kansas City has also been among the most forgiving defenses when it comes to tight end production. The absences of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell have dramatically altered the number of good options C.J. Stroud has at his disposal, so it makes sense he might lean more heavily on one of the players he knows the best. Also working in Schultz's favor is that Cade Stover (shoulder) - his only legitimate competition for snaps at tight end - was placed on IR this week. Kansas City's focus figures to be almost exclusively on limiting what Nico Collins does after the catch (something the Chiefs did very well in the first meeting) and bottling up Joe Mixon. If they are successful in doing those two things, the Chiefs will live with Schultz picking up 8-10 yards at a time.

While Goedert did not do much (4-19-0) in Philly's Week 12 win over the Rams, he is coming off one of the best games of his season and now faces a defense that has surrendered at least 10 fantasy points to a tight end in five straight weeks. Although I have Kincaid projected higher, I do not have a lot of confidence he is going to find the end zone. As a result, Schultz and Goedert will almost certainly be the two tight ends I draft the most this weekend.

Despite how poor of the matchup the Eagles have been for tight ends this season, I would be remiss if I did not mention Higbee as a viable option. He has out-targeted Cooper Kupp 17-7 since his Week 16 return (Kupp sat out Week 18), which should DFS players a couple of things: 1) Kupp appears to be an afterthought in the passing game now and 2) Higbee might now be the preferred short-area target. The problem with fading Higbee completely this week is that the Vikings were supposed to be a tough matchup for tight ends last week, but that did not stop him from drawing five targets on 12 offensive snaps before he left with a chest injury. If he plays (and the expectation is that he will), he is worth using as a contrarian play to Schultz or even Likely - each of whom is likely to be more heavily owned.

Key for defense/special teams units:
PA - Points allowed
TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
TO - Total turnovers
PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings