10/15/10
Lions @ Giants
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Shaun Hill has filled in more than adequately for
the injured Matthew Stafford and will get another chance to lead
the Lions this week. Hill doesn’t have Stafford’s
strong arm, but he is a savvy veteran that has been smart enough
to spread the ball around to the Lions diverse group of pass catching
options, with good results. Calvin Johnson has been a good red-zone
option, but his owners likely would like to see him get more involved.
Unfortunately he relies more on his great athleticism and downfield
speed to get open, rather than running sophisticated shorter routes
that Hill is more comfortable with. On the other hand TEs Tony
Sheffler and Brandon Pettigrew have thrived under the Hill lead
offense and both have been decent starting options for the TE
slot.
The Giants’ pass defense has made Jay Cutler and Matt Shaub
look pedestrian the last two weeks. Cutler never stood a chance
as he was sacked nine times in the first half and while Shaub
was able to stay upright a little more often (only sacked three
times) he was pressured often and was generally ineffective (196
yards with an interception). Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are
playing like they did back in their respective heydays, allowing
the Giants secondary to look better than they probably are.
Running Game Thoughts: Jahvid Best has shown the dynamic cuts
and speed that made him a star at Cal on many occasions this season.
He has also struggled at times behind the subpar Detroit o-line.
While Best is a good inside runner due to his vision and footwork,
he doesn’t break many tackles and that’s a problem
as he’s often met by tacklers in the backfield. At times
though, he looks like he could be the second most dynamic back
in the game behind Chris Johnson. The Lions need to try and get
him out in space as much as possible.
The Giants held the NFL’s leading rusher, Arian Foster,
to 25 yards rushing last week. On the season they have allowed
98.6 ypg and 4 TDs on the ground. They have fared better against
bigger stronger backs (D’Angelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart
and Matt Forte) than they have fared against smaller quicker backs
(Joe Addai and Chris Johnson) though, so they may have some trouble
dealing with the rookie runner this week.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 205 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Calvin Johnson: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 20 yds receiving
Tony Scheffler: 55 yds receiving
Brandon Pettigrew: 30 yds receiving
Jahvid Best: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has found his new Plaxico Burris in
second year receiver Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is developing into one
of the best WRs in the game, as he runs great routes, can get
deep and is sensational after the catch. He does lose his concentration
on occasion and therefore drops some easy balls though. Last year’s
security blanket, Steve Smith, has now become second fiddle to
Nicks but is still a valuable NFL and fantasy commodity. As a
master route runner, Smith is a clutch third down option that
is still capable of having his big games.
It could be another big day for Eli, as he faces the 26th ranked
pass defense after feasting on the 32nd ranked pass defense last
week. Detroit is allowing 235.4 ypg and 8 TDs on the season. While
you may be tempted to say “same old Lions”, one area
where they have improved tremendously is that they can now put
some pressure on opposing QBs. The team has 14 sacks on the season
after adding rookie NT Ndamkung Suh and veteran DE Kyle Vanden
Bosh this offseason, two players whose motor never stops.
Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw has run really hard in 2010,
showing great effort all season. His use of his deceptive strength
and stunning moves to always gain positive yardage, has even impressed
the man whose job he took at the season’s start. Brandon
Jacobs recently stated that some of Bradshaw’s runs where
he seems to get 4 yards from absolutely nothing have left him
amazed on the sidelines, even admitting that “I can’t
do that”. When you are able to make Jacobs humble, you must
be doing something right.
The Giants will be able to choose how they wish to attack the
Lions defense at the New Meadowlands Stadium this week, likely
meeting little resistance with whichever path they choose as the
Lions are also one of the worst run defenses in the league. They
are the 27th ranked pass defense, allowing 133.2 ypg and 5 TDs
on the ground in 2010.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 70 yds receiving
Mario Manningham: 30 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Prediction: Giants 24 Lions 17 ^ Top
Ravens @ Patriots
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has built on his first two seasons leading
the Ravens to a 4-1 record including a come from behind victory
on the road against division rival Pittsburgh. Anqaun Boldin has
been a successful offseason acquisition and has given Flacco that
“go to” target that he has lacked the last two seasons
– with apologies to the very under-rated Derrick Mason.
Boldin is a tough receiver that has superb run after the catch
ability and has helped draw attention away from Mason and TE Todd
Heap allowing the former to rejuvenate what seemed to be a career
in serious decline. The other offseason acquisition, TJ Houshmanzadeh,
hasn’t been a major part of the offense but did catch the
game winning TD in the waning seconds of the aforementioned victory
over Pittsburgh. The Patriots secondary has struggled all season,
but have especially struggled while defending big physical WRs
like Braylon Edwards, Steve Johnson and Brandon Marshall in recent
weeks, so look for Anquan Boldin to cause the Patriots some fits
this week.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record in this weekly feature,
the Pats start a very inexperienced pair of corners, and second
year player Darius Butler and rookie Devin McCourty have struggled
after a decent effort in Week 1. Young inexperienced QBs Mark
Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne have lit up the unit
in recent weeks and Flacco may likely be the best QB they have
faced so far. Expecting the Pats pass defense to shut down the
Ravens improved passing game, may be asking for a bit too much.
Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice is the complete package. He doesn’t
have elite top end speed, but it’s more than adequate to
allow him to make big plays and he’s also a tough inside
runner despite his “smallish” stature, due to his
compact running style, hips that are on a swivel and his deceptive
strength. He’s also been the most dangerous running back
catching passes out of the backfield since the beginning of last
season. Willis MaGahee, who lost his starting gig to Rice last
season, reinvented himself to become one of the top goal-line
vultures in the league. The Ravens love to establish the running
game and should try and get Rice and MaGahee going early despite
having the bigger advantage in the passing game.
The Baltimore o-line is one of the best in the business and will
need to handle the tough New England front seven in order to come
into New England and leave with a “W”. The Pats are
allowing 112.3 ypg and only 1 TD on the ground through their first
four contests and are receiving big seasons from their young talents
like linebackers Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich and safety Patrick
Chung. If the Pats can make the Ravens one dimensional by taking
away the run, they should have enough offense of their own to
stay in the game, despite their beleaguered pass defense.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 yds passing 2 TDs
Anquan Boldin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Derrick Mason: 40 yds receiving
Todd Heap: 55 yds receiving
Ray Rice: 85 yds rushing / 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 20 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady lost a future Hall of Famer this week,
but luckily he loves his new toys, namely the pair of rookie TEs
that Pats drafted this spring. Rob Gronkowski is being used as
a nice red zone option and Aaron Hernandez is being used as a
hybrid slot WR ala Dallas Clark. Hernandez, surprisingly, is leading
the Patriots in receiving yards and is a smooth open field runner.
Randy Moss’ targets (which were surprisingly not many) should
go to second year wide receivers Brandon Tate and the newly re-acquired
Deion Branch. Tate has excelled as a kick returner showing an
incredible second gear and could be a big weapon now that he’ll
see more time in the passing game. Branch hasn’t been the
same since he left New England but perhaps the trade back will
revitalize him. It will be very interesting to see what becomes
of Wes Welker, the premiere possession WR in the league with Moss
not being on the field. There are many that believe a great deal
of his success was derived from all of the attention that Moss
received – I’m personally not sure that was the only
reason that the lightning quick and bulldog tough Welker succeeded
though. Two weeks ago I stated “Tom Brady is starting to
resemble his early days where he had no Moss or Welker and was
forced spread the ball around to whichever of his mediocre receiving
crew was open” – little did I know that would become
even more the case going forward. Expect the Patriots to continue
using two TE sets and become a more dink and dunk type offense
going forward with only occasional shots downfield.
The Ravens banged up secondary, with safety Ed Reed (on the PUP
list), was finally exposed last week by Kyle Orton and the Broncos.
Some of the deficiencies in the Ravens’ pass defense may
have been covered up during the first four weeks due to the fact
that the team faced, Mark Sanchez (with restraints on the play
calling), a wounded Carson Palmer, Seneca Wallace and Charlie
Batch during those contests. Tom Brady and crew should help further
prove that the Ravens No. 4 pass defense ranking just may be a
mirage.
Running Game Thoughts: BenJarvis Green-Ellis has thrived as the
primary ball carrier in the Pat RB rotation – after Fred
Taylor’s injured toe caused him to miss the last two games.
It should be noted that Taylor’s status for this week is
still questionable despite the bye week and don’t expect
much info to be leaked by the Patriots as to his health. Green-Ellis
is a decent start unless Taylor is healthy enough to cloud the
issue. There’s nothing fancy about Green-Ellis, but he’s
a serious downhill runner that falls forward and inflicts punishment
on opposing teams.
The Ravens feature one of the best front sevens in football and
have only allowed 101.1 yards per game on the ground with 4 TDs
in 5 games so far. They are a difficult matchup for most backs,
but bear in mind they were eaten up by another no-nonsense down-hill
runner in Peyton Hillis earlier this season.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs
Brandon Tate: 40 yds receiving
Wes Welker: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Aaron Hernandez: 80 yds receiving
Fred Taylor: 5 yds rushing
Danny Woodhead: 25 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
BenJarvis
Green-Ellis: 90 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Prediction: Patriots 27 Ravens 24 ^ Top
Falcons @ Eagles
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Matt Ryan/Roddy White connection has been one
of the more consistent pairings over the last three seasons. Ryan
is a poised smart signal caller that knows where his bread is
buttered and generally looks to his best weapon, White. Tony Gonzalez
isn’t the force that he once was, but is still a solid secondary
option in the Atlanta passing game. He works well underneath as
Roddy stretches the field and makes a good check down option for
Ryan. The passing game has clicked for most of the season and
will get starting WR Michael Jenkins back this week. Jenkins’
has never been a real solid fantasy option (and don’t expect
that to change), but adding another WR that Ryan can trust will
only help the Falcon offense.
The Eagles are allowing 192.4 ypg game and 8 TDs through the air
in 2010. Their once feared pass rush has lost some of its bite,
but DE Trent Cole is still a man that needs to be accounted for
by the Falcons. While CB Asante Samuel is still a dangerous corner
it’s his counterpart on the opposite side of the field,
Nate Allen, that leads the team with three interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner ran for 140 yards in a win
over the Browns last week, continuing his trend of feasting on
poor rushing defenses – while mostly disappearing against
tough run defenses (i.e. Pitt and SF in 2010). While that is likely
the case for most RBs, the trend is more pronounced with Turner
it seems and dates back to his first season in Atlanta, where
luckily enough for his owners the team faced a whole lot of bad
run defenses.
The Eagles have been a poor rush defense in 2010, ranked 25th
as they have allowed 125.8 ypg and 4 TDs on the season. They have
been better with MLB Stewart Bradley in the line-up than when
he has been out and are likely not as bad as the early season
statistics indicate.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 225 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Roddy White: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 45 yds receiving
Tony Gonzalez: 65 yds receiving
Jason Snelling: 35 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Michael Turner: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The Eagles’ backup QB, that began the season
as the starter before being replaced in Week 1, due to injury,
by the backup QB who was then promoted to the role of starting
QB based on his performance in that game, should get at least
one more start this week. Confused? Well, some suggest that if
Kolb keeps playing well and the Eagles keep winning Andy Reid
may reinsert him as the starting QB. Oh boy. Kevin Kolb played
much better last week than he did in Week 1 or in Week 4 (after
he replaced the injured Michael Vick). He didn’t just look
to dump off to his RB, but rather attacked down the field a little
more. Kolb has left Desean Jackson owners feeling slighted though,
as he lacks the ability of Vick to keep plays alive which allows
Jackson to get open downfield. Behind the porous Eagles line Kolb
has had to get rid of the ball before Jackson gets separation.
On the other hand, Maclin and Celek have benefitted from having
a more traditional passer under center, since they rely more on
running precise shorter routes and Vick is more of an improviser.
Got it?
If the Eagles o-line is able to contain John Abraham (4 sacks)
giving Kolb a little time, he should be capable of stringing together
another nice outing as the Falcons are giving up 223.4 yards and
a TD per game through the air.
Running Game Thoughts: Even with a broken rib, LeSean McCoy continues
to run with some authority and get the job done. He surprisingly
has 5 rushing TDs on the season, when many people predicted he
would lose the goal-line carries to bruiser back Mike Bell (who
was traded to Cleveland this week). He is a dynamic runner with
adequate speed and good hands in the passing game. He has been
one of the biggest steals in most drafts, as he sits atop the
RB rankings list after 5 weeks. The matchup with the Falcons could
be a stiff test for McCoy as they have been very effective against
the run (86.6 ypg and 2 TDs) so far this season.
Projections:
Kevin Kolb: 245 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 15 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 55 yds receiving
Brent Celek: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 75 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving
Prediction: Eagles 17 Falcons 14 ^ Top
Colts @ Redskins
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning is pretty good. Do I need to go
on? It’s probably got to the point where Manning is now
UNDER-rated, because people are so used to season after season
of outstanding performances. The players around him change and
the coaching staff changes but the Colts keep winning with Manning
being the sole constant. Austin Collie has been the top rated
fantasy WR through five weeks which just further tells you how
good Manning is. Nothing against Collie, he’s a fine WR,
but put him on say the Bengals and he’s likely not even
a weekly fantasy starter.
This one could get ugly quickly. Washington is the 31st ranked
defense in the league - allowing 298 passing yards per game and
has yielded 7 passing TDs on the season. Outside of OLB/DE Brian
Orapko, the Skins lack a pass rusher than can get to opposing
QBs in standard four man rushes, so they have been unable to generate
pressure without blitzing. Against a QB like Manning this will
be a real issue. Give him time in the pocket and he’ll pick
you apart. Blitz and fail to get there and the consequences will
be devastating.
Running Game Thoughts: Back-up RB Donald Brown was inactive due
to injury in Week 5 and starter Joseph Addai had to leave the
game early due to his own injuries, which left third year RB and
former Michigan Wolverine Mike Hart as the entire Colts running
game. Hart capitalized and played the role of hero, as he bowled
his way into the end-zone from 11 yards out allowing the Colts
to knock off the undefeated Chiefs. Addai should be back this
week, but has been limited in practices, so keep an eye out of
his progress.
The Washington run defense was amongst the best in the league
heading into the Week 5 contest with Green Bay. That was before
allowing Brandon Jackson, of all people, to break off a 70+ yard
run on his way to 115 on the day and also surrendering another
30 yards to QB Aaron Rodgers. Let’s call that game a fluke.
If you are tempted to try and squeeze a “sneaky play”
week out of Mike Hart, you’d be wise look elsewhere, as
the Skins can stop the run and Manning should have his way against
the defense, throwing all night long.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 335 yds passing, 3 TDs / 5 yds rushing
Reggie Wayne: 100 yds receiving, 1 TD
Austin Collie: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 30 yds receiving
Dallas Clark: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Joseph Addai: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Mike Hart: 25 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb hasn’t performed all that
well in 2010. You can say that he lacks the weapons to put up
big numbers, but that would ignore the fact that he is only completing
56% of his passes and has missed some wide-open targets over the
first 5 weeks. It’s true that Santana Moss, Joey Galloway
and Anthony Armstrong are among the weakest WR corps. in the league,
but McNabb has done more with less in the past and does have a
very talented TE in Chris Cooley to work with. I’ve been
consistently calling for TE Fred Davis to be worked into the offense
more in 2 TE sets, but my last name is not “Shanahan”
so I have little (ok, “no”) say in the Redskins’
game planning.
The Colts are a middle of the road passing defense, ranked 15th
while allowing 203.6 and 6 TDs on the season. DEs Dwight Freeney
and Robert Mathis have only really had one stand out game, against
the NY Giants, and will need to step up each week in order to
at least give the Colts some semblance of a defense. They can
not stop the run at all, so making it difficult to pass against
them would provide a real benefit.
Running Game Thoughts: Torain did not have an exceptional debut
as a starter last week against Green Bay, but performed adequately
in a game where both offenses struggled to move the ball. This
week I fully expect the “Torain Train” to leave the
station. Torain isn’t very fast but runs with authority
and should tear apart a terrible Cots run defense. Shanahan knows
his only chance to beat the Colts is to keep Manning on the sidelines
for as long as possible, as the Skins passing game can not keep
up with the Colts aerial attack.
Most NFL fans know that the Colts run defense regresses to “wretched”
when Bob Sanders is not in the line-up. Sanders has not played
a down in 2010 and isn’t expected back anytime soon. The
Colts are allowing 142.2 ppg and 5 TDs on the ground thus far
and that’s including a game where they faced a Denver offense
that barely attempted to run at all and started Laurence Maroney
at RB.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 235 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 85 yds receiving
Joey Galloway: 35 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ryan Torain: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receving
Prediction: Colts 27 Redskins 14 ^ Top
Chargers @ Rams
- (Eakin)
Passing Game Thoughts: Do not mistake the Chargers (2-3) record for anything
more than atrocious special teams play. They still enter this
game with the league’s top offense and second rated defense.
Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates may re-write the single season
TE numbers. In fact, TE Antonio Gates is the leading Fantasy receiver,
not just among TEs but, among all receivers. Speaking of impressive,
WR Malcolm Floyd’s 213 yards explosion last week vaults
him into must start status in all fantasy leagues. Beyond them,
there is no one to get excited about. Legedu Naanee, Buster Davis,
and Patrick Clayton all cannibalize each other’s value.
None of them can be trusted to consistently produce significant
production on a weekly basis until further notice.
Running Game Thoughts: The million dollar question is whether
or not Mike Tolbert’s fifteen minutes reach expiration this
week. He struggled against the Raiders to the tune of 11 carries
for twelve yards and a goal line fumble. Head Coach Norv Turner
explained that the more talented rookie Ryan Mathews would take
over as the starter once he showed he could make it through a
week of practice with full participation. That certainly seems
feasible considering how healthy Mathews looks during the game
but, once again Mathews sat out practice Tuesday with a sore ankle.
As a Mathew’s owner, I share in the frustration of many
who drafted him with such high expectations in the draft. Pay
close attention to his practice status Wednesday. If he remains
out or only partially practices, then Tolbert will continue splitting
carries in a favorable matchup at St. Louis.
Predictions:
Philip Rivers: 295 yds/2TDs/1 INT
Malcom Floyd: 85 yds/1 TD
Legedu Naanee: 45 yds
Antonio Gates: 90 yds/1 TD
Ryan Mathews: 85 yds
Mike Tolbert: 45 yds/1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams WR core has been decimated by injuries
for the second straight year. After losing Donnie Avery to start
the year they now place top WR Mark Clayton on IR with a torn
knee. The loss of Clayton would seem to increase the roll of possession
WR Danny Amendola. He was targeted 19 times while grabbing twelve
after Clayton went down. There is no doubt Amendola gets a bump
in value but his upside is limited due to the short routes he
excels at. The real value is in knowing who steps into Claytons
big play role between Brandon Gibson and Laurent Robinson. The
Promising young QB Sam Bradford needs a new scoring threat. Robinson
has all the physical tools but has had a career riddled with injuries.
Gibson on the other hand has been the more active players averaging
almost fifteen yards per catch and has developed more of a rapport
with Bradshaw. Most insiders give the nod over Gibson to be the
most likely to step up. If you have room on a roster, he is a
guy to stash or at least keep an eye on this week to see if he
can provide and big play red zone target for a Rams offense that
has thrown the ball a lot this year.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson must be thrilled to still
be playing meaningful games in week six. He is running like it.
Jackson went over 100 yards rushing last week. There is little
concern that the loss of Clayton will reduce his room to run.
Regardless of the WRs, Bradford is a threat that has to be respected.
Amendola is still an established threat and either Gibson or Robinson
will pick up Clayton’s slack. The Chargers run defense isn’t
a good matchup, but Jackson will remain a top back moving forward.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 220 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Danny Amendola: 70 yds/1 TD
Brandon Gibson: 60 yds
Daniel Fells: 30 yds
Steven Jackson: 85 yds/35 rec/1 TD
Prediction: Chargers 27 Rams 20 ^ Top
Raiders @ 49ers
- (Eakin)
Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell is expected to start if Bruce Gradkowski
can’t overcome his shoulder trouble. We haven’t seen
much of Campbell as a game planned starter for the Raiders. We
know he likes TEs and Zach Miller has scored in three straight
games making Miller the third ranked TE this year. The WRs are
a little less exciting. Louis Murphy is the best option but has
been banged up. Murphy can put up some nice numbers this week
because the 49er defense is much better to pass on then run. Despite
Heyward-Beys’ high target total, he has not produced enough
to earn any trust yet.
Running Game Thoughts: For at least one more game Michael Bush
remains the king of the hill is the Raiders backfield regardless
of whether or not questionable Darren McFadden suits up. We know
the Raider’s are good for two things. Throwing to Miller
and giving the RBs lots of attempts. Bush faces a tougher than
average run defense but will be a serviceable fantasy option on
sheer number of carries. Bush is a tough inside runner with decent
feet in the mold of Peyton Hillis. This game should remain close
and Bush can begin to wear down the 49er front in the second half
for some decent yardage and a score.
Projections:
Jason Campbell: 225 yds/1 TD
Louis Murphy: 60 yds/1 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 50 yds
Zach Miller: 80 yds/1 TD
Michael Bush: 75 yds/1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite the (0-5) record HC Mike Singletary is
still reluctant to pull QB Alex Smith in favor of the first round
disappointment Davis Carr. If Smith can’t turn the season
around the Niners know they have to start from scratch again next
year which will set the organization back another couple years.
Smith continually shows flashes of talent when his back is against
the wall but can’t seem to avoid those one or two bonehead
mistakes per game that cost them wins. A great sign is last week’s
game was the focus on getting Michael Crabtree into the mix with
nine catches for 105 yards. I’m not sure what the Niners
were waiting for if it was his poor practice habits or a stubbornness
on the part of their game planning to be a one dimensional power
run offense but they haven’t been good enough on defense
this year to win without the offense opening up a bit. He and
TE Vernon Davis are their best weapons for that. This could be
a difficult matchup for Crabtree facing Nnamdi Asomugha but, I
still like his chances for a few reasons. Asomugha usually stays
to one side of the field and can be avoided. They used some short
screens and quick outs to get the ball in his hands quickly and
let him rely on his running ability, and third, though few will
admit it openly, Asomugha hasn’t exactly been the shutdown
corner he has in the past. Malcom Floyd torched the Raiders for
200 yards and several of his catches were with Nnamdi on him.
Great matchup to keep an eye on either way this weekend.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week versus Philly I thought RB Frank
Gore deserved as much scrutiny for the offensive struggles as
Smith. He didn’t look like the charged up work horse we’ve
grown accustomed to. He fumbled twice, kept losing his balance
on cuts, and looked a little disenfranchised in what should have
been a great game for him against the small Eagle front seven.
The Raiders are worse than the Eagles ranking second to last in
the league against the run. Gore is the key man in this game to
salvage the season and the stars are aligned for him to do it
with a better effort than last week. Last call Frank, the season
is leaving the station.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 200 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 75 yds
Josh Morgan: 40 yds
Vernon Davis: 75 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 105 yds/35 rec/2 TDs
Prediction: 49ers 24 Raiders 20 ^ Top
Jets @ Broncos
- (Eakin)
Passing Game Thoughts: The opening day stinker for Mark Sanchez is a distant
memory for this offense that has won four straight and now has
weapons all over the place with the return of Santonio Holmes.
How Holmes would fit in to the offense was a little bit of a mystery
last week. While he finished with marginal numbers, 3-for-41,
there were some positive signs. He played roughly two thirds of
the snaps, just missed on some big throws down the fields, was
targeted a lot but dropped a few catches, including a couple third
down attempts. The targets on third down speak to the level of
confidence the Jets had in him his first game back. Going forward
Holmes will be the man to own and hurt the value of Braylon Edwards
and TE Dustin Keller. This week the Jets face a vulnerable Broncos
defense that will be without starting safety and leader of the
defense, Brian Dawkins, CB2 Andre Goodman, and LB Robert Ayers,
their pass rush replacement for Elvis Dumervil. Without a pass
rush and a weakened secondary, Sanchez should have time in the
pocket to connect on a few big plays on the outside to Holmes
and Keller should have his way over the middle.
Running Game Thoughts: Watching the re-invigorated LaDainian
Tomlinson run all over the tough Minnesota run defense last week
was a sight to behold. He lacks the top end speed he once had
but he is routinely making it to the second level of the defense
using his patented jump cut which is still very explosive. He
owned the first half of that football game and was the reason
the Jets won. Tomlinson is different from most RBs because he
will actually have more value in the tough match-ups. In close
games they keep him on the field more than games they know they
can win, where they will spell him with Shonn Greene. Both backs
are startable this week and in a PPR Tomlinson’s involvement
in the passing game make him better, but his value ultimately
lies with how well the Broncos play on offense and their ability
to make this a tough game for the Jets.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 Int
Santonio Holmes: 85 yds/1 TD
Braylon Edwards: 55 yds
Dustin Keller: 65 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 75 yds/25 rec/1 TD
Shonn Greene: 55 yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton proved against the Baltimore Ravens
that this offense is matchup proof. The Jets have a formidable
defense but CB Darrelle Revis is questionable, and they rank just
23rd so far in pass defense. They can be passed on and Denver
has shown very little interest this year in doing anything but
pass the ball. Orton will get some yards in game but they key
in this game will be their ability to convert red zone opportunities.
They lack a consistent big TE or WR they can lean on in close.
Demeryius Thomas could evolve into that role eventually built
he may not even play this week after getting drilled on a special
teams play. Brandon Lloyd has led the scoring, mostly from distance.
That is a unreliable proposition to rely upon moving forward without
more of a running threat.
Running Game Thoughts: Denver has been the second worst rushing
team in the league so far. Buckhalter and Maroney have been a
joke, but even starter Knowshon Moreno was averaging less than
three yards per carry when healthy. Moreno is practicing for the
first time in three weeks but his he won’t make a difference
against this run defense. After this though, there will be much
more favorable matchups for him especially now that the passing
offense has established a reputation.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 300 yds/2 TD/1 Int
Brandon Lloyd: 70 yds
Jabar Gaffney: 65 yds/ 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 70 yds/1 TD
Knowshon Moreno / Laurence Maroney: 40 yds/35 rec
Prediction: Jets 27 Broncos 20 ^ Top
Dolphins @ Packers
- (Autry)
Passing Game Thoughts: After throwing for only one TD through the first
two games, Chad Henne has picked up the pace a bit. He’s
thrown four TDs in the last two games and has more than 300 yards
in each, but his four interceptions during that stretch make for
a tremendous buzz kill. WR Davone Bess has been a pleasant surprise
this year. He’s even keeping up with Brandon Marshall’s
production—especially during the last two games in which
Bess produced 14 receptions for 182 yards. No receiver on Miami’s
roster has more than one TD, but that could very well change this
week considering the mounting injuries for Green Bay.
Despite the injuries, Green Bay maintains the league’s
13th-ranked defense. They’re far from world-beaters, but
when you consider they’re without LB Nick Barnett and a
host of defensive backs, their top-half ranking is admirable.
Miami’s offensive line must keep the aggressive pass rushers
at bay. The Packers’ 21 sacks are second in the league behind
Tennessee’s 22. The Charles Woodson-Brandon Marshall battle
should be a nice match-up to watch. Green Bay has surrendered
an average of 315 passing yards over the last two games, so Henne
could be a sneaky start this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Week to week, it’s difficult to
forecast which Miami RB will be the most productive. Both Ronnie
Brown and Ricky Williams are serviceable fantasy backs in their
own right, but it’s a nightmare when gauging who to start.
Only five carries and 50 yards separate the two so far this season.
What makes it most difficult is the duo only has one rushing TD
between them. Brown is a low-end #2 this week, and so is Williams—especially
if you have Cedric Benson or DeAngelo Williams on bye this week.
After opening the season against Philly and Buffalo and having
each team rush for well over 100 yards, Green Bay’s run
defense has tightened up since then, giving up an average of 84
yards per game. The prospects of a productive game for either
RB are slim, although Brown could get a short TD run. But if you’re
forced to start either one, simply hope for the best but plan
for the worst.
Projections:
Chad Henne – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Ronnie Brown – 55 yards rushing / 20 yards rec
Ricky Williams – 40 yards rushing
Brandon Marshall – 80 yards
Davone Bess – 65 yards / 1 TD
Anthony Fasano – 30 yards
Passing Game Thoughts: After reports earlier in the week indicated that
Aaron Rodgers would more than likely miss this week’s game,
signs are now pointing to Rodgers getting the nod. He took the
majority of reps during practice on Thursday after doctors gave
him the thumbs-up. On the surface, that sounds like good news.
But as a Rodgers owner myself, I’m leery about starting
him a week after getting his bell rung.
Miami may statistically be the 4th-ranked pass defense, but those
numbers are skewed due to the crazy game against New England when
the Patriots scored all those special teams and defensive TDs.
They’re also inflated because of that dreadful Minnesota
performance in week 2. Keep in mind, too, that Mark Sanchez sliced
up the Dolphins defense. However…HOWEVER…as stated
above, Rodgers is coming off a concussion, he lost his TE Jermichael
Finley for at least the next two months, and once-productive WR
Greg Jennings has done little so far to make a fantasy impact.
This is a tough call this week. Perhaps the one component of Green
Bay’s passing attack who has the greatest value is Donald
Driver. Driver leads the team in receptions but has only one 100-plus
yard game during the previous 16 contests. Tread lightly with
the Green Bay passing attack this week.
Running Game Thoughts: I was tempted to leave this area blank,
because that’s what Green Bay’s running “attack”
has been: BLANK. Brandon Jackson’s long run last week aside,
it’s been a horrendous performance by those replacing the
injuring Ryan Grant. The Packers are ranked as the 15th-best rushing
team in the league, but that’s a fallacy. A simple eyeball
test would reveal that this team struggles on a regular basis
and neither John Kuhn nor Brandon Jackson are viable options at
this point. You’d have to been one desperate owner to rely
on one of these players. Avoid both at all costs if humanly possible.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 185 yards / 2 TD
Brandon Jackson – 35 yards rushing / 20 rec
John Kuhn – 20 yards
Donald Driver – 70 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 55 yards
James Jones – 30 yards / 1 TD
Prediction: Green Bay 20, Miami 13 ^ Top
Seahawks @ Bears
- (Autry)
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle passing game took
a hit this week when the team’s second leading WR Deion
Branch was traded to New England. Branch is far from the receiver
he once was, and his 8 yards per reception was pedestrian any
way you look at it, but taking away a cog from the passing game
of an already average team leaves a huge void. Now Mike Williams
must continue to step up, as well as Deon Butler. The Seahawks
are in the bottom-third in passing offense and have only four
passing TDs this season.
No defense has given up fewer passing TDs than the two Chicago
has surrendered, and they’ve given up the fifth fewest points
in the league. Even though the sacks don’t spell it out
(only nine on the season), the front seven of the Bears has played
exceptionally well. It will be a chore for Seattle to muster any
semblance of a credible passing game. Mike Williams will be shut
down, but look for Deon Butler and John Carlson to be Hasselbeck’s
main targets all game long. Neither are suitable starts, although
in TE-required leagues Carlson is a high-end #2.
Running Game Thoughts: A 29th-ranked running game with two TDs
for the season going against the league’s 3rd-ranked run
defense isn’t going to instill much confidence in fantasy
owners this week. Justin Forsett is the unquestioned starter,
who, when coupled with Leon Washington, give Seattle an agile
and athletic one-two punch. But that punch won’t do much
damage this week. I see Forsett playing a bigger role in the passing
game moving forward, so he can be a low-key start most weeks.
My only concern about him and the rest of the Seahawks is I think
the Bears defense will pick up where it left off last week when
they smashed a laughingstock Carolina offense. Don’t look
now, but it could be just as ugly for Seattle this week.
Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck – 185 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
Justin Forsett – 40 yards rushing / 30 rec
Mike Williams – 50 yards
Deon Butler – 35 yards
John Carlson – 55 yards
Passing Game Thoughts: The Chicago/Carolina game last week set NFL offensive
football back about 50 years. It was as if Chicago’s QB
Todd Collins and Carolina’s signal callers Matt Moore and
Jimmy Clausen had never seen nor heard of the forward pass. With
Cutler sidelined, Chicago had 41 called running plays and 19 called
pass plays. I’m sure Mike Martz cringed with each call.
With Cutler back this week, you can be sure Martz will make up
for that “lost” time last week. And with Seattle sporting
the 31st-ranked pass defense, Martz will most assuredly focus
his mode of attack on that weakness.
The biggest concern for Chicago relative to fantasy production
continues to be its lack of quality receivers. That fact always
makes playing Cutler somewhat of a gamble, but things are set
nicely for a productive game from Chicago’s passing game.
There aren’t any quality starting QBs on bye, so if Cutler’s
your #2 and his match-up trumps that of your starter, don’t
hesitate putting him in your line-up.
Running Game Thoughts: Chicago’s explosive running game
last week produced more rushing yards than in the previous three
games combined. Carolina’s rush defense was a sieve and
allowed Matt Forte to show flashes from his rookie season. This
week may prove to be a little different, because as porous as
Seattle’s pass defense is, its run defense is contrastingly
stingy. Only one team is better against the run than Seattle;
and this after battling Frank Gore and Steven Jackson through
two of their first four weeks. Forte could remain a player in
the passing game, but give up any liberal ideas of optimism regarding
his potential on the ground this week.
Projections:
Jay Cutler – 250 yards / 2 TDs
Matt Forte – 45 yards rushing / 35 yards rec / 1 rushing
TD
Johnny Knox – 80 yards / 1 TD
Devin Hester – 45 yards
Greg Olsen – 70 yards / 1 TD
Prediction: Chicago 24, Seattle 9 ^ Top
Browns @ Steelers
- (Autry)
Passing Game Thoughts: Poor, poor Colt McCoy. Talk about rude rookie awakenings…
McCoy makes his NFL debut on the road with an average supporting
cast, against one of the top defenses in the league, and in what
will surely be a raucous stadium with the return of Ben Roethlisberger.
Suffice it to say it probably won’t be a good day for the
Brownies in this one.
Mohamed Massaquoi and Chansi Stuckey are bottom-feeder fantasy
options whose place on your roster should be questioned daily.
Ben Watson, however, is having a steady, no-frills season. He
could be the beneficiary of McCoy’s expected trend of dumping
off short passes to slow down the Pittsburgh blitz. Screen passes,
quick throws to WRs, and even Wildcat formations with Josh Cribbs
should all be in play this week. Chances are those schemes won’t
yield much production, so adjust your line-up if you could so
that it reflects nothing resembling a Cleveland Brown.
Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Hillis has been battling a leg
injury recently and it was obvious that it bothered him last week.
He’s yet to practice this week, so his availability for
the game is up in the air. Hillis has been one of those late draft
pick/waiver wire gems we see every year. He’s a beast for
Cleveland, both in the run game and passing game. If he doesn’t
play, James Davis could see the start with Jerome Harrison having
been shipped to the Eagles this week.
Whoever starts, keep this in mind: Pittsburgh has yet to give
up more than 42 yards to any one RB this season. That should be
reason enough to temper whatever dream-like optimism you may have
brewing. If there’s even the slightest chance that Hillis
can play, I’d say he will give it a shot. But don’t
expect much playing time or production.
Projections:
Colt McCoy – 130 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
James Davis – 35 yards rushing
Peyton Hillis – 20 yards rushing / 15 yards rec
Mohamed Massaquoi – 40 yards
Chansi Stuckey – 20 yards
Ben Watson – 35 yards
Passing Game Thoughts: The first inclination when two supposedly polar
opposite teams collide is to automatically expect the inferior
squad to get beat down. But when those two teams are divisional
foes, that possibility often seems more far-fetched. Such could
be the case this week. Cleveland’s pass defense has tried
to hold its own this season, but Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer
both tattooed Cleveland’s secondary in two of the Browns’
four games. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a conservative
approach by Pittsburgh in an effort to re-acclimate Ben back into
the picture.
Perhaps one of players with the most upside now that Roethlisberger
is back is Mike Wallace. He’s essentially a one-dimensional
player, but that one dimension is multiplied countless times when
a player the caliber of Roethlisberger returns. Expect a deep
ball or two thrown Wallace’s way. Hines Ward’s pedestrian
12 receptions lead the team; he could actually match that total
over the next two games. This team won’t hit its stride
relative to the passing game until another week or two. I’d
hold off on starting Big Ben right now, but both Ward and Wallace
could be intriguing options this week. They probably won’t
break any of your league’s fantasy records, but they could
put up decent numbers.
Running Game Thoughts: It pains me to see Rashard Mendenhall
be a productive back, especially after I chose San Diego’s
RB Ryan Mathews over him. Ouch. But I digress. Mendenhall is Pittsburgh’s
workhorse who’s gotten at least 19 carries in five straight
games dating back to 2009. He will undoubtedly be the center of
the game plan for Pittsburgh with Ben’s return. Cleveland’s
23rd-ranked defense appears vulnerable, but when you consider
the fact the Browns have yet to give up a rushing TD, you begin
questioning your logic. Don’t. Mendenhall will score this
week and be a viable contributor to your team this week. Mark
it down.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 165 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Rashard Mendenhall – 120 yards / 1 TD
Mike Wallace – 65 yards
Hines Ward – 35 yards
Heath Miller – 40 yards / 1 TD
Prediction: Pittsburgh – 17, Cleveland 6 ^
Top
Cowboys @ Vikings
- (Autry)
Passing Game Thoughts: The good news for Tony Romo owners is he leads
the league in pass attempts. The bad news for Romo owners is he
leads the league in pass attempts. All those opportunities are
bound to produce fantasy results at some point, but that same
good fortune could turn sour quickly. With little threat of a
running game, defensive linemen tee-off against Dallas’
O-line and create all kinds of havoc for Romo. Roy Williams is
displaying skills he hasn’t shown since his first couple
years in the league in Detroit. His re-emergence will only open
things up for Miles Austin and Jason Witten.
Minnesota has the 6th best pass defense, but its six sacks so
far are a travesty considering the home field advantage they enjoy
and the pass rushers on the D-line. If the Vikings get an early
lead and unleash Jaren Allen and Ray Edwards, it could be a long
day for Romo. I expect a healthy dose of Witten as well as more
targets going to Dez Bryant. Since Dallas general eschews the
running game early and often, that typically spells potentially
good things for Romo and crew. Romo could very well go for 300
yards this game.
Running Game Thoughts: I remain clueless why Felix Jones isn’t
given the rock more often. Jones is a homerun ready happen. But
Marion Barber’s significant role in the offense essentially
renders them both useless…oh wait. Who am I kidding? The
offense’s philosophy actually renders both useless. Only
eight teams have fewer called runs than Dallas. It must be tough
owning a Dallas RB under these conditions.
Minnesota’s defensive prowess seems to have flip-flopped
since last season. The Vikings have been generally known as a
team that can stuff the run but was susceptible through the air.
In 2010, those strengths are reversed. Perhaps this is the week
when Dallas makes a concerted effort to try and run the football
consistently. With its season on the brink and the team in need
of putting up points, Jones and Barber could play second fiddle
once again.
Projections:
Tony Romo – 285 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INTs
Felix Jones – 65 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Marion Barber – 35 yards rushing
Miles Austin – 120 yards / 1 TD
Roy Williams – 55 yards
Dez Bryant – 40 yards / 1 TD
Jason Witten – 40 ayrds
Passing Game Thoughts: Don’t believe the hype that Brett Favre’s
not playing. Sitting because of tendinitis? Yeah, right. Minnesota’s
season hangs in the balance, and there’s no way Favre sits
idle while watching Minnesota’s season circle the drain.
I think they’ll come out firing, getting Randy Moss better
adjusted to the new offense and Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe
stretching the field down the seams. Dallas’ middle-of-the-road
defense will be tested early and often by an ailing Favre. Expect
a good game from Moss, Harvin and Shiancoe, as Moss’ addition
creates holes in Dallas’ defensive backfield.
Favre has already thrown as many INTs this season as he had all
of last season. He may not have to concern himself with that this
week, as Dallas’ two INTs are tied for second worst in the
league with…the Vikings. If they (read: Favre) can take
care of the football, Minnesota wins easily while creating fantasy
magic for his various weapons.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson is as reliable a fantasy
RB as any in the league. After finishing 2009 with only three
100-plus yard games, he already has two. What’s worse for
opponents is he’s now more involved in the passing game.
Expect more of that this week, as I believe the game will be put
in Favre’s hands early on and given to Peterson to milk
the clock late. Dallas faced Chris Johnson last week and Arian
Foster the week before. Both performed well and certainly gave
Peterson owners that much more confidence knowing that Peterson
is poised for a good game.
Projections:
Brett Favre – 210 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Adrian Peterson – 120 yards / 1 TD
Randy Moss – 90 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 45 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 65 yards / 1 TD
Prediction: Minnesota 27, Dallas 20 ^ Top
Chiefs @ Texans
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: It was only a matter of time, and the Chiefs suffered
their first loss in Week 5 at the hands of the defending AFC Champion
Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs’ offensive ineptitude was
as predictable as the loss. With just 650 passing yards in four
games, quarterback Matt Cassel is on pace for a mere 2,600 yards
passing—a total that would even put him significantly below
his pathetic numbers in 2009.
But while the Matt Cassel experiment has to be considered a monumental
failure by the front office in Kansas City, there is actually
a chance that he and the Chiefs will have a productive day passing
against the Texans in Week 6. Having allowed multiple touchdowns
in five of their first six games and allowing more than 275 yards
passing in every game, the Houston pass defense has been monumentally
bad. They are currently ranked 31st against opposing quarterbacks.
The Texans have to expect the Chiefs to run the ball a lot this
week, which could lead to some big plays in the passing game if
Cassel and his receivers (particularly Dwayne Bowe) can start
clicking. Cassel could have one of his biggest fantasy days of
the 2010 season—though even that doesn’t necessarily
make him a must-start.
Running Game Thoughts: With the Chiefs passing game being so bad,
it’s hard to believe the rushing game has been so good.
Normally when teams cannot throw the ball, the run game suffers
as defenses key in on the backs and take away their running lanes.
Fortunately for fantasy owners of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones,
that has not been the case in 2010. Both Charles and Jones have
been fantasy assets, with Charles being the more productive of
the two despite receiving only about one-third of the team’s
carries through the first three weeks. Last week, though, the
Chiefs finally gave a large share of the carries to Charles, who
accumulated over 100 total yards on 19 touches. This trend should
continue into Week 6 as the Chiefs face a Texans team that has
struggled to contain opposing running backs, allowing six total
touchdowns already. With Jamaal Charles now considered the “starter”
in Kansas City, Jones may be a fantasy afterthought. In other
words, don’t start him this week unless you absolutely have
to. Wait to see how the Chiefs will use Jones going forward before
relying upon him again.
Projections:
Matt Cassel – 215 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Jamaal Charles – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 45 yards receiving
Thomas Jones – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Chris Chambers – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Dexter McCluster – 5 yards rushing / 0 TD / 35 yards receiving
Tony Moeaki – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Two of the last three games have been a harsh reality
check for the once red-hot Texans offense. With wide receivers
Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones both missing time with injuries,
Matt Schaub and the passing game have run into a road block that
they are struggling to get around. The NFL’s leading passer
in 2009, Schaub has now failed to reach 200 yards in three of
the Texans’ first five games, including back-to-back games
against the Raiders and the Giants.
Thankfully, Andre Johnson now appears to be healthy, and Jacoby
Jones says that he is “ready to roll” for this Sunday’s
game, so expect lots of passing from Schaub against Kansas City.
The Chiefs have done a relatively good job stopping the pass,
however, after they held Peyton Manning to zero touchdowns last
week, so don’t necessarily expect monster numbers.
Running Game Thoughts: The roller coaster ride of Arian Foster’s
2010 season had its biggest fall in Week 5 as the New York Giants
held him to just 25 yards on 11 carries. Not only that, but Foster
was held in check in the passing game with just two yards receiving
after two 50-plus yard performances in his previous three games.
These numbers are certainly skewed, however, as the Giants had
taken a 24-3 lead by halftime and the Texans didn’t have
time to run the ball much after that.
While the Chiefs defense has done a fairly good job of stopping
opposing running backs on the ground, they have allowed five or
more receptions to them in every game. This has translated into
three straight 40-plus yard receiving games for running backs,
including a 100-yard receiving day to the 49ers backs in Week
3. Foster’s abilities as a runner and receiver could make
him a difficult player for the Kansas City defense to stop.
Projections:
Matt Schaub – 220 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT
Arian Foster – 100 yards rushing / 1 TD / 30 yards receiving
Andre Johnson – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jacoby Jones – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Owen Daniels – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Texans 27 ^ Top
Saints @ Buccaneers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees had an oddly difficult game against
a usually mediocre Arizona Cardinals pass defense in Week 5. While
he threw for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns, his 3 interceptions have
to be a major concern for Saints fans. With Reggie Bush and Pierre
Thomas out, the Saints have struggled to establish their usually
productive short passing game. Despite throwing nearly five times
per game more than he did in 2009, Brees’ passing yardage
per game has taken a dive, and he has just one completion of more
than 40 yards so far this season.
Brees will attempt to get out of his funk against a better-than-expected
Buccaneers pass defense that has intercepted multiple passes in
every game this season. Then again, Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore,
Charlie Batch, and Carson Palmer aren’t exactly on the same
level as Drew Brees. Brees is struggling right now, but he remains
an elite quarterback and it’s not likely that people who
drafted him have a much better option—he’s an every
week starter.
Running Game Thoughts: Pierre Thomas is expected to be back after
missing the past two games with an injury. His return will be
a welcome addition to a Saints offense that has struggled to run
the ball with Chris Ivory and Ladell Betts. Though Thomas ran
for just 147 yards over the first three games, he added 133 yards
receiving, and his presence on the field will help open things
up for other players in the offense.
If Thomas does return, he will face a Buccaneers defense that
has allowed 534 yards on the ground—and 127 through the
air—to opposing running backs in just four games. Thomas
has had double-digit points against the Buccaneers in three straight
contests, so his track record is pretty good against this porous
defense. If Thomas is unable to go, the Saints will likely turn
to a split-backfield of Ladell Betts and Chris Ivory—neither
of whom can really be relied upon in fantasy football.
Projections:
Drew Brees – 290 yards passing / 2 TD / 2 INT
Pierre Thomas – 70 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Ladell Betts – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving
Marques Colston – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Lance Moore – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Devery Henderson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 35 yards receiving / 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: It hasn’t always been pretty, but Tampa Bay’s
second-year quarterback Josh Freeman has been effective enough
to bring his team to a surprising 3-1 record. Freeman has had
15 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season—the
only exception being against an extremely tough Pittsburgh defense
in Week 3, when the whole team struggled.
Currently the 14th-ranked fantasy quarterback, Freeman’s
rushing ability earns his fantasy owners a few extra points each
week, which can often be the difference in a game. The New Orleans
pass defense has been known for their ability to force a high
number of turnovers, but with just five interceptions through
the first five games of the season, this matchup may not be as
difficult for Freeman as it looks on the surface. His favorite
target, receiver Mike Williams, is currently listed as questionable,
but head coach Raheem Morris said on Thursday that he expects
Williams to play this week. The Saints have struggled particularly
badly against tight ends, giving up two touchdowns and already
allowing three games of 90 or more yards to opposing tight ends.
Enter Kellen Winslow. Though Freeman can’t be relied upon
as an every-week starter, there are certainly worse options for
bye-week or injury fill-ins.
Running Game Thoughts: As surprisingly good as Freeman has been,
it’s little surprise to fantasy owners that the running
game has been so mediocre. After rushing for just five touchdowns
as a team in 2009, the Buccaneers haven’t done much better
in 2010, rushing for just two through their first four games—neither
of which has been scored by starter Cadillac Williams. While Kareem
Huggins and LaGarrette Blount are knocking on the door, it appears
that fullback Earnest Graham is actually the most trusted player
in this backfield, and he has even outscored Cadillac thus far.
The Saints have struggled to stop the run, allowing the fifth-most
points to opposing backs so far. But the Tampa Bay backfield is
just too unpredictable right now to rely upon anyone as a fantasy
option. Cadillac Williams will likely still see the most carries,
but that number could be matched or exceeded by the trio of Graham,
Huggins, and Blount. Stay away.
Projections:
Josh Freeman – 210 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT / 25 yards
rushing
Cadillac Williams – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Earnest Graham – 15 yards receiving / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Mike Williams – 75 yards receiving / 0 TD
Kellen Winslow – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Prediction: New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 17 ^ Top
Titans @ Jaguars
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After two consecutive stinkers against the Steelers
and Giants, Vince Young has begun to get things back on track
with back-to-back solid performances against the Broncos and Cowboys.
Though his numbers haven’t been huge, Young has now gone
three straight games without a turnover, and he appears to be
getting more comfortable as the starting quarterback. Wide receiver
Kenny Britt has stepped up significantly (a touchdown catch in
each of the past three games) and is quickly establishing himself
as what the Titans hoped he would eventually become—the
team’s top receiver.
If there were ever a time for Vince Young to have a breakout game,
it would be this week against the 32nd-ranked Jacksonville pass
defense. The Jaguars have allowed a league-worst 12 passing touchdowns,
including a three-touchdown game last week to Bills quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick. While Vince Young struggles at times, he certainly
has more talent than Fitzpatrick—and the Titans receivers
seem to be hitting their stride. This could be a big game for
Young.
Running Game Thoughts: Up, down, up, down, up—no, this isn’t
a Nintendo cheat code. It’s a description of Chris Johnson’s
2010 fantasy season. Johnson has multiple touchdowns in three
games so far but has failed to reach even five fantasy points
in the other two games. The Titans have been inconsistent as a
team, so that’s not particularly surprising, but generally
the first overall pick in fantasy drafts is expected to be a bit
more consistent than this.
The Jaguars have been better at stopping the run than they have
the pass—but that’s not saying much of anything. After
allowing more than 100 yards on the ground to the Bills running
backs, it’s hard to believe they can contain Chris Johnson.
Though the early-season trend tells me that this will be a “down”
game for Johnson, my instincts tell me something different, as
Johnson absolutely destroyed the Jaguars to the tune of 228 yards
and two rushing touchdowns the last time he played them.
Projections:
Vince Young – 195 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT
Chris Johnson – 115 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
/ 1 TD
Javon Ringer – 25 yards rushing / 0 TD
Kenny Britt – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Nate Washington – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: With three multiple-touchdown days in his first
five games, David Garrard has been surprisingly productive in
2010. He currently ranks 12th among quarterbacks, but we’ve
very likely already seen the ceiling of his fantasy production.
It’s hard to rely on a guy who threw just 15 touchdowns
during the entire 2009 season and hasn’t really been given
any new, noteworthy receivers. In fact, if anything, wide receiver
Mike Sims-Walker, who was a surprising fantasy standout last year,
has mostly fallen back to fantasy irrelevance. Though he caught
a touchdown pass last week, Sims-Walker has been surpassed by
teammate Mike Thomas, who leads the team in targets, receptions,
and yards.
The Titans pass defense is currently ranked 15th in scoring allowed
to quarterbacks, but that number is very skewed. They performed
extremely well in Weeks 1 and 2 against the Raiders and Steelers,
but they have been absolutely torched through the air in their
past three games against the Giants, Broncos, and Cowboys. During
that span, the Titans have allowed 1,133 yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Though he doesn’t have the receivers of those teams, this
is a good matchup for Garrard, who is as hot right now as he may
ever get.
Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew has been perhaps the
most disappointing player of the 2010 fantasy season. A top-four
pick in practically every league, Jones-Drew is currently the
26th-highest scoring fantasy back and has just one touchdown on
the ground. The biggest disappointment came last week against
the Buffalo Bills, in a game that the Jaguars largely dominated.
Jones-Drew was nursing a wrist injury, but the fact that he failed
to score or to reach 100 total yards against one of the worst
run defenses in the league could be a very bad sign for his value
going forward.
The Titans currently rank 6th in the league in points allowed
to opposing running backs, having given up just one touchdown
on the ground in the first five games. Like their pass defense,
though, this number is a bit skewed after the ridiculous performance
they had against the Broncos in Week 4, when they allowed just
eight rushing yards. Tennessee’s defensive line is playing
much better than expected so far this season, so the Jaguars will
likely attack them through the air. You have to assume that Jones-Drew
will get better at some point soon, but this doesn’t appear
to be a particularly excellent matchup.
Projections:
David Garrard – 240 yards passing / 2 TD / 2 INT / 15 yards
rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards
receiving / 0 TD
Mike Thomas – 65 yards receiving / 0 TD
Mike Sims-Walker – 55 receptions / 0 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Jacksonville 21 ^ Top
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