Over the last few weeks, the Chargers’ offense has developed
into a unit that features several intriguing pieces when it comes
to fantasy. Unfortunately, they’ll run into a top-10 Houston
defense in the Wild Card Round.
First looking at J.K. Dobbins, he’s returned to a featured
role since returning from IR ahead of Week 17. He played 66.7
percent of snaps last week against the Raiders while handling
63.6 percent of the backfield opportunities. Given the play of
the Chargers’ other running backs in Dobbins’ absence,
it’s hard to see them giving much work to anyone else. However,
this is a defense that’s allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing running backs while also ranking 10th
in yards per carry allowed. It’s hard to get too excited
about Dobbins in this matchup as his efficiency has been pedestrian.
Quentin Johnston is coming off a career day, exploding for 13
receptions and 186 yards on 14 targets last week against Las Vegas.
While this is encouraging to see, there’s no question that
Johnston is the second fiddle behind Ladd McConkey in this offense.
He’s averaging 5.8 targets per game this season and that
should be in the range of what we expect for him in the Wild Card
Round. With middling projectable volume and a matchup against
the secondary that ranks seventh in EPA per dropback, Johnston
will likely need an explosive play or a touchdown to get there
this week.
Justin Herbert is playing some high-quality football and has
been quite productive as well, clearing 23.0 fantasy points in
each of his last three games. What’s even more encouraging is
that he’s been more than willing to use his legs and has rushed
for at least 28 yards twice during this stretch. Once again, Herbert
gets the buzzsaw that is the Houston defense, a unit that has
surrendered 250-plus passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns
just once this year. Herbert is certainly talented enough to overcome
a less-than-favorable matchup, but there are likely better options
and game environments out there.
Fade: N/A
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
After a scalding-hot start to the year, Joe Mixon has slowed
down considerably in recent weeks, scoring more than 11.0 PPR
points just once since Week 12. Mixon has also recorded just two
explosive runs (rushes of 15-plus yards) on 74 carries during
this timeframe.
Mixon’s productivity has taken a turn for the worst and
the Chargers don’t exactly present a bounce-back spot; Los
Angeles has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running
backs this season. This isn’t a situation to get excited
about Mixon’s outlook. The only reason that he holds any
sort of value is thanks to his 1A role in the Houston offense.
The numerous injuries to the Houston pass catchers have allowed
Dalton Schultz to take on an expanded role. Schultz has seen 16.8
percent of the targets across the last month while clearing a
15-percent target share three times. Given the available volume
in the offense and the lack of depth at the position, Schultz
can be an emergency option at tight end.
There isn’t much that has to be said about C.J. Stroud;
he’s struggled more in his sophomore season than anyone
could have possibly imagined. He has not scored more than 20 PPR
points since Week 4 and finished the regular season with just
three QB1 finishes. He’ll now take on the Chargers, who
feature a top-10 pass defense. Altogether, Stroud doesn’t
have a place in lineups this week.
The last time these two teams squared off before Christmas, Warren
was the preferred option in the backfield to Najee Harris, logging
17 combined touches for 92 yards to just 42 yards on nine carries
for Harris. Given how stout the Ravens are defensively against
the run, don’t be surprised if that’s the case once again with
Pittsburgh likely to run more sets shaded toward the passing game,
which favors the elusive Warren rather than the more physical,
between-the-tackles bruiser in Harris. Then again, in the first
matchup -- which was won by the Steelers -- it was a steady diet
of Harris (22 touches, 93 yards) with Warren (13 touches, 68 yards)
sprinkled in. I have trouble believing Pittsburgh will be able
to replicate that success, however, and would rather try my luck
with Warren as my flex option.
In two matchups with the Ravens, Wilson averaged 211 yards, 1
TD, and 1 INT. That includes a November matchup when Baltimore
was still among the NFL’s worst in terms of pass defense. While
the veteran started fast upon taking over for Justin Fields, his
numbers have dipped dramatically, and over the team’s four-game
losing streak to finish the season he posted 174.5 yards per game
with 4 TDs and 2 INTs as Pittsburgh failed to score more than
17 points in any of those games. Given his struggles, Wilson probably
wasn’t on many radars to begin with but let this serve as a reminder
that you should indeed stay away from him on Saturday night.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
With Zay Flowers (knee) officially ruled out due to a knee injury
he suffered in Week 18, Bateman ascends into the de facto WR1
role for Baltimore. He served in that capacity in the finale against
Cleveland, hauling in five passes for 76 yards and a touchdown
-- that marked his most receptions since Week 10, and his most
yardage since Week 7. While he was quiet in two meetings with
the Steelers this year, totaling just three receptions, 44 yards,
and 1 TD, Bateman has been a reliable contributor in the red zone,
having scored in four of his last six games. Bateman could be
a useful WR3.
The domino effect of Flowers’ absence continues here. Since the
acquisition of Diontae Johnson went sideways, the Ravens have
limited depth at the receiver position with Bateman and Nelson
Agholor, along with perhaps Tylan Wallace, set to see more action.
Then again, the team could elect to utilize more two-tight end
sets and give Likely additional snaps. The third-year tight end
put in solid work against the Steelers when Flowers was active,
posting a 4-75-0 line in the first meeting and catching three
balls for 29 yards and a score in their most recent tilt. Likely
also finished third on the team in yards (38) and receptions (3)
in Week 18 when Flowers went down. On a weekend without a lot
of reliable TE options for DFS players, Likely offers interesting
upside.
Courtland Sutton capped off a resurgent 2024 regular season with
a five-catch, 98-yard performance that included a touchdown in
Denver’s Week 18 matchup against the Chiefs. While the production
occurred against a group that primarily consisted of backups,
this performance was not an outlier. Since his Week 7 goose egg
against the Saints, Sutton has quietly been one of the league’s
most consistent fantasy producers at the position throughout the
second half of the season. He has finished with at least 10 PPR
fantasy points in every game while also delivering multiple big
performances along the way. A matchup against a Bills defense
that allowed 90 or more yards to five different receivers and
eight total touchdowns to the wide receiver position over their
final five games is one that fantasy managers should be optimistic
heading into.
After a shaky start, Bo Nix’s Week 16 through Week 18 performances
likely carried many fantasy managers to championships, especially
those who were streaming the quarterback position down the stretch.
Nix heads into the playoffs red hot, having thrown 21 touchdown
passes over his final eight games, including a stretch of four
straight games of 20 or more rushing yards to finish out the regular
season. The Broncos offense seems to be hitting its stride at
the right time and while they’re certainly the underdogs
against one of the Super Bowl favorites, fantasy managers looking
to pivot from the more popular QB options could have something
in Nix this week.
Fade: Broncos Running Backs
While the Broncos’ passing game has been coming along throughout
the season, their running game has not kept up with the pace.
Even in their Week 18 stomping of the Chiefs’ backups, the Broncos
trio of Jaleel
McLaughlin, Javonte
Williams, and Audric
Estime managed to compile just 101 rushing yards on 33 carries,
with quarterback Bo Nix leading the team in rushing yardage for
the day. The Broncos implementing a true three-man backfield down
the stretch means that none of them will likely see a significant
workload to justify being utilized for fantasy. The on-paper matchup
might be enticing given that the Bills have struggled to shut
down opposing running games at times this season, but this Denver
backfield is not one that fantasy managers should be taking a
chance on right now.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Interestingly, James Cook was not one of the Bills' starters
who sat during their Week 18 matchup against the Patriots. The
running back did not play his normal amount of snaps as he was
eventually replaced in the game by backups Ray Davis and Ty Johnson,
but not before he managed to get into the end zone one final time
to finish off an impressive regular season that saw him score
18 total touchdowns. Cook also ended the regular season on a strong
note, having rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his final
six games while compiling six rushing touchdowns over that stretch
- and that included the Week 18 matchup when he played just 15
total snaps.
This matchup against the Broncos isn’t ideal as the Broncos
have only allowed two running back rushing touchdowns over their
past seven games, but they’ve also faced a good number of
teams that were dealing with injuries at the position or had not
been running the ball effectively. Cook is a strong play in this
one, especially if the Bills get out ahead on the scoreboard and
choose to burn some clock with their running game.
Wide receiver Khalil Shakir is a tough player to evaluate as
we head into the fantasy playoffs because while he had been one
of the more consistent 10-to-20-point-per-game producers in the
league throughout the majority of the regular season, he really
fell off down the stretch. Even if we look past the Week 18 game
where he didn’t play due to the Bills resting most of their
starters, Shakir finished with seven or fewer PPR fantasy points
in three of his final five games after having scored at least
10 in all but one game prior to that.
With the other Bills receivers lacking target volume, Shakir
is probably still the best wide receiver option on the roster.
It’s just hard to know how much that value that’ll
return.
Amari Cooper remains away from the team due to “personal
reasons” and Sean McDermott has only said that he is “hopeful”
that Cooper will be with the team this weekend. Even if Cooper
is active, however, fantasy managers should not feel optimistic
about the veteran wide receiver as we head into this Wild Card
matchup. Cooper, as the team’s primary outside weapon, will
almost certainly see many, if not most of his snaps against Patrick
Surtain, one of the league’s premier lockdown cornerbacks.
Cooper himself has only exceeded three targets in a game twice
since joining the Bills back in Week 7, so this is not the week
to take a chance on him. He’s one of the most obvious must-avoid
players on the board despite his name value.
After missing Week 18 due to illness, Doubs is set to return
for Sunday’s tilt with the Eagles. Although it was Jayden Reed
(4-138-1) who starred in the Week 1 game versus Philly, Doubs
quietly led the way in targets (7) and was second with a 4-50-0
line. He was also an absolute beast in last year’s playoffs, leading
the Packers in receiving in both their win over Dallas (6-151-1)
and their loss to San Francisco (4-83-0). While it’s a small sample
size, Doubs has shown the ability to step up in big spots, and
he, more than anyone else, has Jordan Love’s trust. In a game
where Green Bay will likely need to find ways to move the ball
without the benefit of a lot of explosive plays, Doubs’ hands
and ability to find open space in the midrange game could be critical.
He might deliver a nice return on investment as your WR3.
Green Bay’s decision to play their starters in Week 18
couldn’t have gone much worse, and while the belief is the
Love will play, his ability to push the ball downfield could be
compromised. Even if Love can air it out, Kraft could still be
an integral part of the game plan as he’s a physical presence
with good hands and a nose for the end zone. After finishing with
less than 30 yards five times in his first 11 games, he went for
better than 30 in each of the final six with 50-plus in half of
them. Kraft, who also led the team in receiving TDs (7) and yards
after the catch, has a chance to deliver solid value.
Love was limited in practice early in the week after banging
his elbow on the frozen ground last Sunday, though the expectation
is that he’ll play. Even so, you’d be wise to stay
away from him. He was decent in the Week 1 matchup with Philly
(260 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but down the stretch it seemed like
avoiding interceptions -- he hasn’t thrown one since Nov.
17 -- became the focal point of the passing game rather than dropping
back, hitting his spot, and letting the ball rip. That’s
what Love was doing in 2023 when the Packers came agonizingly
close to knocking off the 49ers. This year, Love closed with just
one game of multiple TD passes in his final five and no games
of more than 230 yards. The numbers just haven’t been there
to justify taking a chance.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Goedert was activated from IR in advance of Week 18 and was one
of Philly’s few key contributors that played versus the
Giants, catching four passes for 55 yards. As it happens, that
was one of his better statistical efforts of the season, one in
which he only topped 50 yards once in a game where Brown and/or
Smith played. The other three times, either one or both were injured,
which includes easily his best game of the year, a 10-170-0 line
versus New Orleans. In Week 1, Goedert had a 4-31-0 line against
the Packers, and with Jaire Alexander (knee) out of action, the
Packers are more vulnerable to opposing wideouts than tight ends
as the linebacker pairing of Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker (ankle)
are among the most athletic in the NFL. You could roll the dice
on Goedert, but it feels like a long shot.
Zach Ertz has held a consistent role in the Washington offense
throughout the year and the production has followed. Despite going
overlooked by most fantasy managers during draft season, Ertz
averaged 10.4 points per game, good for the per-game TE10 on the
year. He’s also been fairly reliable scoring double-digit
PPR points nine times. His role in the red zone, coupled with
his respectable 5.2 targets per game, makes Ertz one of the better
options at TE in the playoffs.
With Austin Ekeler back in action, the Washington backfield is
set to get messy. In his first game back, we saw the backfield
operate in a 60-40 split in favor of Ekeler. Considering the Commanders
were trailing for the majority of this game, it’s not shocking
to see Ekeler have the edge.
With both backs rotating, there are limited paths for each back
to find success. For Brian Robinson Jr., he’ll have to be
fairly efficient on the ground while punching in a touchdown.
Considering the Buccaneers have allowed just one back to reach
50 rushing yards since Week 10, Robinson will be really banking
on a touchdown. When it comes to Ekeler, he’ll require either
a handful of check-downs or a trailing game script that allows
him to take on a 1A role.
Over the last month, Olamide Zaccheaus has become one of the
featured pass catchers in Washington. He’s cleared a 20-percent
target share twice in the last three weeks while scoring three
touchdowns that have lifted him to 20-plus PPR points twice. It’s
not a guarantee that he earns targets ahead of Ertz or McLaurin,
so much like Robinson, you’re really relying on a touchdown with
Zaccheaus.
Fade: N/A
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Rookie receiver Jalen McMillan has come on down the stretch,
averaging 19.8 PPR points per game since Week 14. Underneath his
high-end production, McMillan has middling target-earning metrics,
drawing a target on 20 percent of routes across the last five
weeks.
Even though he’s not competing to be the No. 1 target in
Tampa Bay, McMillan has been highly efficient with his looks.
He’s posted an 80-percent catch rate since Week 14 while
hauling in seven touchdowns on 30 targets. While these are both
unsustainable, the recent production of the Tampa Bay offense
and the success of McMillan as an individual makes him very appealing.
Cade Otton has missed some time with a knee injury, but a full
practice on Thursday indicates that he should be back on the field
on Sunday. If he’s able to make his return, Otton is a routes-based
option who has reasonable touchdown upside. The Buccaneers are
averaging 34.8 PPG across the last month and have plenty of touchdowns
to go around. It wouldn’t be a shock if Otton comes down
with a TD in this one.
The Tampa Bay coaching staff isn’t hiding what they want
this backfield to look like in crucial games. In a must-win matchup
last week, White played just 26.6 percent of snaps and did not
see a single touch. It was the Bucky Irving show in Week 18 and
that will likely carry over into the playoffs. Expect White to
be an afterthought against Washington.
Sam Darnold had a game to forget with the division on the line
against the Lions last week, completing just 18 of 41 passes for
161 yards. It could have been worse, as he at least committed
no turnovers, but it was definitely a tough pill for fantasy owners
to swallow.
In the Wild Card round, Darnold and friends will draw a Rams
defense that has allowed 25+ fantasy points to five different
opposing quarterbacks, including a ceiling of 51.9 (Josh Allen).
This makes Darnold, with 35 touchdown passes on the year, a strong
start in what should be a bounce back game.
Like Darnold, Addison burned fantasy owners in Week 18. His 1-0-0
line on 6 targets probably shook the faith of the faithful, but
if you’re playing fantasy football this NFL post-season,
keep sight of his larger body of work. Addison has now produced
back-to-back 10 touchdown seasons to start his career, and produced
roughly 60 yards per game this season, making his floor generally
more reliable than it was last week, and his ceiling sizable.
He’s a very good flex play against the Rams.
Meanwhile, despite a similarly disappointing line (2-9-0), tight
end T.J. Hockenson collected 8 targets in Week 18. Hockenson has
seen at least 5 targets in seven consecutive games and in nine
of ten games since returning from injury. As tight ends go, the
floor has certainly been respectable, and we’ve really just
been waiting on the ceiling. Hockenson has zero touchdowns!
Will the endzone involvement change? Perhaps not dramatically,
as he’s still got Jefferson, Addison and perhaps even Jalen Nailor
in front of him, not to mention the activity of Aaron Jones who
is a quality receiver. But it’s fair to say that Hockenson is
overdue for a TD and having a big game in this offense. Drawing
a Rams team that allowed 106-1101-7 to opposing tight ends this
season makes it very plausible that it can happen this week. He
certainly can be valued as a solid TE1 for this matchup.
Since making defensive changes just before mid-season, the Rams
have been tough on opposing running backs not named Saquon Barkley.
Four opposing RB1s have failed to reach even double-digit points
during that time, including Zach Charbonnet last week. No back
other than Barkley has reached even 14 points against the Rams
since the trade.
For his part, Aaron Jones had 10.5 points against the Rams when
he faced them back in Week 8. Assuming Jones is active this weekend,
he’s certainly not out of play. Still, he’s more of
a Flex rather than the RB2 he was during the regular season.
After averaging exactly 2 targets per game between Week 9 and
16 – not coincidentally coinciding with the return of T.J.
Hockenson – Nailor has had a bit of a revival the last two
weeks, recording a 5-81-1 line in Week 17 and a 3-53-0 line in
Week 18. The touchdown was Nailor’s sixth on 43 targets,
but it should be noted that even with nice productivity in the
red zone, Nailor has only reached double figures in two of the
six games he’s scored, meaning his ceiling tends to be pretty
low.
It also should be noted that the revival in the last two weeks
came on the back of only 9 total targets, and without a score
he managed just 6.7 points in Week 18. He’s arguably not
even a boom/bust play, unless you are in a competition with very
deep rosters.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
After a sluggish final stretch of the regular season, Cooper
Kupp got a much-needed rest in Week 18, ahead of this week’s
Wild Card matchup. Kupp averaged 10 targets through his first
five games after returning from injury, and over 9 through his
first seven, before finishing with three consecutive 3-target
performances prior to the rest.
The Rams also became a more run heavy offense during this time,
so there are likely other contributing factors, but nonetheless,
the rest for the 31-year-old Kupp and his 36-year-old quarterback
should bode well for him returning value this week. Pursue him
as a flex with significant upside that could range into WR1 territory
against a Vikings defense that gives up the most points to opposing
receivers.
While rest should do Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack
some good, it will be hard to bank on Stafford against a Vikings
defense that recorded as many interceptions (24) as they allowed
passing touchdowns. The Vikings allowed just 13.2 points to Jared
Goff last week, and just 12 to Jordan Love the week prior, with
only a handful of Top 12 QB performances allowed this season.
With Stafford being ranked barely in the Top 30 among quarterbacks
in FPts/G for the year, and the game being moved to a neutral
site (Arizona), he looks the part of a wise sit.
Tight end Tyler Higbee, meanwhile has 2 touchdowns in three games
since his return. But in the two games where he shared the field
with Puca Nacua and Cooper Kupp, he saw just 5 total targets.
Higbee’s floor is extremely low in this offense, and while
he has a couple of touchdowns since his return, he has never exceeded
5 touchdowns in a season during his lengthy career (9 years).
He also has just 1 touchdown in 10 career post-season games. All
in all, his ceiling is fairly low and he should be valued like
a TE2 with limited upside.
