A d v e r t i s e m e n t
“Darn the wheel of the world! Why must it continually
turn over? Where is the reverse gear?”
- Jack London
Every so often, I like to find a quote that connects what I do
with what I am experiencing in a given week. Writers – especially
those with multiple jobs – are consistently working against
the clock, but so too are fantasy owners. Fortunately (and sometimes
unfortunately) for me, I am both and I needed time to work backwards
a little bit more this week than it did. Thankfully, the worst
is over. I will likely have four big-money drafts to look forward
over the next two weeks and feel as good about my rankings this
year as I ever have.
Back to the aforementioned quote: two weeks ago, most of us were
chomping at the bit for football to start. Two weeks from now,
most of us will be wrapping up our final fantasy drafts and be
days away from the Thursday Night Football opener. In between
now and then, owners need to make sure they do their most homework
this weekend as the preseason heads into its most important week.
(Shockingly, the preseason isn’t just about who wins the
starting quarterback job in Cleveland…) I put a fair amount
of weight into the third full week of the exhibition season simply
because it gives us our first semi-real look at frontline players
executing something that resembles a regular-season gameplan.
Make sure to set aside some time this weekend to do more than
just watch the highlights…you’ll thank me later.
Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value
when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify
it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value"
using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB,
two-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and
oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB and WR, the value reflects the standard
deviation from the 24th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many
times over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need
has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't
hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding
the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass
up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week
1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great
drafters from the very good ones.
Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting
up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense
has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example
of the latter is Jimmy Graham, whose PPR value should make him
a top-five player on all three boards. While Graham certainly
brings a huge advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week,
no number cannot account for the economic principle of “opportunity
cost” – the loss of potential gain from other alternatives
when one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners
pass on an elite running back to draft Graham. A simple number
value also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at
running back after the established top options are drafted, usually
by the end of the first round. Smart drafting also involves supply
versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality
running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues.
Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
a few key points:
1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you
see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on
projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point
total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the
so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers.
Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points
at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's
not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my
RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds
during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may
end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my
board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each
position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow
the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and
value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.)
Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board –
despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe
he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if
his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
3) Much like the past two seasons, I want to provide readers with
a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it
due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see
a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
Without a doubt, my main focus this year is set up a Big Board
that reduces risk for as long as possible while also drafting
for upside as soon as the most dependable players are off the
board.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below
***In addition to discussing value above, there is one other note
regarding the numbers in the “value” column: numbers
that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers
are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined,
the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while
the latter values are on the left side.)
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank players in the .5 PPR format.
One final note: Over the next
week, I will be reviewing the rest of the action from Week 2 of
the preseason and “quality controlling” my projections
(basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one
defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just
five), so my final Big Boards may look dramatically different
next week – particularly at the bottom – than they
currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process
takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information
about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can
assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be the most
comprehensive draft-day tool anyone in your league will have at
their disposal.
There was a bit of chaos among players ranked inside the top 50
this week, so I had to give more time to them than I expected.
Fear not, however, as I gave some quality time to the other 125.
Let’s see how it shakes out this week:
Before we address the players outside the top 50 as I promised last
week, allow me to point out some notable changes in that group
first. First of all, McCoy is now No. 2 on all three of my boards
and I am confident that my top four will remain Peterson-McCoy-Forte-Charles
(in that order) going forward, although Monday’s report of
McCoy dealing with a “small version of turf toe” may
get me to reconsider. One of the biggest risers from last week is
Ellington, who the Cardinals seem to view as their version of Charles.
Much like an early-in-his-career Charles, Ellington appears to have
no shot at scoring at the goal line. Everywhere else is a different
story. HC Bruce Arians’ early claim that the second-year back
was going to see 25-30 touches was always a bit of a pipe dream,
although 13-15 rushing attempts and 3-5 receptions per game is more
than doable. Ellington’s schedule gets a bit treacherous at
the end – which is one reason why owners should target him
as a RB2 – but he is unlikely to disappoint from a total-yardage
perspective.
Moving a little further down, Martin gets a nice boost in value
with the likely season-ending ankle injury to Charles Sims. While
it would be convenient to just slide Rainey into Sims’ projections,
it rarely ever works out that way in reality. I still expect the
Bucs to use Rainey and, to a lesser extent, Mike James to spell
more Martin often than we’d like and I also hold little
to no hope that Tampa Bay’s offensive line will be even
an average run-blocking unit. With that said, Martin should be
the clear lead back that gets nearly all the work at the goal
line…and that still means a lot these days in fantasy football.
While Martin saw his stock rise due to injury, two other notable
backs saw their ranking drop substantially. In what can only be
considered a case that Pittsburgh is placing more value on size
than skill, Le’Veon Bell appears to be out as the Steelers’
goal-line back and may end up sharing more carries than anyone
could have realistically expected. According to STATS, Bell converted
nine of his 13 runs of three yards or fewer into first downs last
year (the 69.2-percent conversion rate was fourth-best in the
AFC) and five of his 12 runs inside the 3-yard-line into touchdowns
(the 41.7-percent conversion rate was fifth-best in the AFC).
Armed with that knowledge behind a highly-talented but poor-blocking
offensive line last year, one would think Bell earned the right
to keep his job. The second-year back reportedly dropped 12 pounds
in the offseason in an effort to break more big runs, which is
exactly what he will need to do in order to live up to his current
ADP (2.7 in PPR) with a healthy Blount stealing carries from him.
We head to Buffalo for our other big top 50 faller. The Bills
might employ the run-heaviest offense in the league, but Fred
Jackson refuses to go away while Spiller enters the last year
of his contract. (If there was any doubt about who the Bills value
more, it may have been erased when they chose to extend Jackson’s
contract late last month.) There is high probability that Spiller
will be more efficient with his carries (i.e. average more yards
per carry) than he was last year with a healthy ankle, but there
is an equally good chance that Jackson will scoop up just about
every short-yardage score and most of the third-down work. Needless
to say, it is going to take a seismic shift in thinking –
such as a long-term injury to Jackson – sometime between
now and the start of the season before I consider moving Spiller
back inside the third-round area.
Another Bell – Joique in Detroit – makes an appearance
in the top 50 on the PPR and .5 PPR boards after finishing just
outside last week. A big part of drafting well early is combining
high upside with low risk into a package with as few question
marks as possible. Sharing a backfield with Bush isn’t going
to lead to weekly dominance barring an injury to the ex-Saint
and Dolphin, but as the likely leading ball-carrier and goal-line
back for the high-scoring Lions, Bell has an incredibly good shot
to live up to this rather lofty ranking.
51-100
I considered giving Rudolph a top-50 spot last week and may
do so next week once I get a chance to catch up on this past weekend’s
action and study my board in more detail. Call it the “Norv
Turner effect” or whatever you’d like, but I have secured
Rudolph on each of my two important teams – one dynasty (along
with Graham) and one redraft – so far and will go to great
lengths in order to make sure I have him on at least half of my
money-league teams. Owners who want a mid-round tight end that will
produce at or near the same level of the “big boys”
(Graham, Gronkowski and Julius Thomas) better hope that Rudolph
has a poor game next week because he has a chance to be an incredible
steal at his late-seventh (PPR) or early-eighth (standard) ADP.
His upside in Turner’s offense is immense – perhaps
just shy of Gronkowski’s best years – especially considering
defenses cannot get too creative with him since stopping Peterson
will remain their top priority.
By now, we all know the story about 30-something running backs:
avoid them at all costs. However, I must admit that Fred Jackson
(8.5) and Gore (5.10) seem like good bets to live up to their
ADP. Since we discussed Jackson earlier, let’s focus on
Gore, who has been ridiculously productive since HC Jim Harbaugh
and OC Greg Roman arrived prior to the 2011 season. The Niners’
all-time leading rusher appears more likely than ever to lose
a few carries this year since Hyde has been a quick study, but
it would qualify as a stunner if Gore finished with fewer than
225 carries, lost goal-line duties and/or didn’t come relatively
close to 1,000 yards rushing yet again. While that kind of production
isn’t the kind that gets owners all excited, it is the kind
of production that typically plays well in the flex position.
Unlike most analysts, I have less of a problem with Newton’s
new receivers and more of an issue with his offensive line and
offseason ankle surgery. However, if we are all going to be honest
with ourselves, would it surprise any of us if he manages to be
a top-five quarterback yet again this year? Newton has easily
the worst supporting cast of the top 15 or so signal-callers,
but how sure can we be that Foles isn’t a one-hit wonder?
Or if Kaepernick will repeat 2013? Or if Cutler can stay healthy
all 16 games? There is little doubt the risk-taking owner will
look past all of those question marks on the other quarterbacks
and take one of them before Newton and that’s more than
understandable. Those same owners need to realize Newton is probably
the safest call of the bunch. Foles (more favorable playoff slate)
and Cutler (superior offensive talent in a dynamic passing offense)
get the nod here, but it is close.
Foles told Geoff
Mosher of CSN Philadelphia late last week that Ertz compares
favorably to a well-known former University of Arizona teammate,
suggesting Ertz is similar to Gronkowski in their “ability
to stretch the defense, make tough catches…” and “thrive
on athleticism”. (I wonder how much his ADP jumped after
that comment…) The praise of Ertz isn’t exactly off-base
and he is a steal at his current mid-ninth round ADP, especially
considering his production in a limited role in five December
games last year (15 catches, 195 yards and three scores). Extrapolated
over 16 games, the averages work out to a 48-624-10 line. Expect
something closer to 55-60 catches with about 800 yards and 7-8
touchdowns, more than enough to put him into the mid-level TE1
conversation.
Most owners who regularly capture fantasy football titles are
quick to give credit to one or more gems they nabbed in the late
rounds. While an 8.12 ADP may not qualify as a late-round pick
for some, I am becoming more intrigued by the notion that Benjamin
is more than a high-upside WR4. He may end up just outside the
WR3 range given Carolina’s somewhat conservative offense
and his inconsistent hands, but owners need to remember that Steve
Smith turned a 64-745-4 line into a WR37 finish in 2013 in 15
games and was not exactly the first target for Newton in the end
zone. Benjamin WILL be a primary threat by the goal line and owns
a substantial size advantage over just about any defender he’ll
face anywhere else on the field. It probably isn’t realistic
to expect anything close to 1,000 yards receiving, although it
does seem likely he’ll average about 15 yards per catch
on about 55-60 receptions and find the end zone about 7-8 times.
Note: In the off-chance that
Josh Gordon is handed anything less than a season-long suspension
(let’s say eight games for argument’s sake), I would
consider him right after Benjamin.
101-175
Just like in any business, it is good to keep an open mind and
give a player a second or third chance, even if they have burned
you before. While I cannot recall ever owning Blount, it is fair
to say that I have a hard time believing he has earned a split
role – much less goal-line duties – in Pittsburgh.
Blount is about as athletic as 250-pound backs come, but is mostly
a soft inside runner that offers nothing in the passing game.
I’m willing to be proven wrong on his red-zone prowess after
he experienced a bit of a rebirth in New England last year, but
there is a reason that he lost goal-line duties on more than one
occasion in Tampa Bay and needed a lot of things to happen in
front of him on the depth chart in his only year with the Patriots
to get the work he did.
John Brown was the last name to come off my PPR Big Board last
week, but I have a very good feeling he’ll be on pretty
much all of my redraft teams this season. Arizona cannot stop
raving about him and Cardinals GM Steve Keim even went so far
as to compare the third-rounder’s rookie progress to that
of Anquan Boldin, who took the league by storm as a first-year
player in 2003 when he posted 101 receptions. Obviously, this
Arizona team is in much better shape than the one Boldin played
for 11 years ago – meaning his production won’t come
close to approaching Boldin’s – and the game of the
5-11, 180-pound Brown doesn’t remotely resemble the current
49er wideout. With that said, HC Bruce Arians compared the Pittsburgh
State (Kansas) product to former protégés Antonio
Brown and T.Y. Hilton, so it shouldn’t be overly surprising
the rookie has looked the part in the preseason. Furthermore,
Brown’s deep speed is a perfect for Arians’ vertical
offense.
Grimes has taken a circuitous route in his short NFL career –
he joined Houston as an undrafted free agent, was signed off the
Texans’ practice squad by the Jets and appeared in nine
games for the Jaguars in 2012 before finding his way back to Houston
near the end of the 2013 season. Now, he has a prime opportunity
to become a player on the wish list of many Foster owners after
Andre Brown went from second-string to unemployed last week. But
should Grimes be the target in the event of another Foster setback?
Rookie Alfred Blue is a bigger and more talented back on an offense
that will need to run the ball well this year to win. It should
be noted that Blue could never stay healthy for any length of
time in college, so talent and scheme fit have to be balanced
out with the fact the LSU product never topped 80 rushing attempts
as a Bayou Bengal. Houston added William Powell and the aging
Ronnie Brown on the same day it released Brown and Dennis Johnson,
so there isn’t a lot of clarity on the depth chart behind
Foster at the moment. I remain convinced that Foster’s handcuff
is not yet on the Texans’ roster and wouldn’t be surprised
if it ended up being one of the odd men out in New England, such
as Brandon Bolden, especially given HC Bill O’Brien’s
Patriot roots.
A few words about one sorely underrated player: rest assured
that Dobson will skyrocket up the board once I get some visual
proof he is all the way back from his foot injury. A healthy Dobson
is, in all likelihood, a top 40 receiver. Also ignore Cassel’s
total points for now. Time doesn’t always allow me to rework
a projection before my Tuesday deadline each week, but I am confident
that whichever quarterback wins the job in Minnesota is poised
for a pretty good year. The main question for Cassel is whether
or not he can keep the job if he is named the starter. He has
a very difficult schedule to begin the season, which obviously
should give any potential owners pause. However, the former Patriot
and Chief probably has a better supporting cast than at any point
since his days as a backup in New England. Moreover, he has a
strong enough arm to succeed in OC Turner’s vertical offense.
Next: PPR
Big Board 
| Non-PPR Big Board
| K & D/STs
Suggestions, comments, about the article or
fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |
