For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial to place your bet on the event that is most likely to happen while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly do we measure this?

To my knowledge, there is no way to accurately predict how often a particular defensive back is going to make a mistake in his coverage in any given game (predictive) , just how often they get beat (reactive). After all, we see receivers beat perfect coverage quite often in today's NFL, so such analysis would be of limited use anyway. We can't even trust team's evaluations from year to year. If you require a recent example, look no further than Oakland Raiders CB David Amerson, who was a liability for the Washington Redskins for most of his short career there. Almost immediately upon arriving in Oakland, he was one of the league's stingiest corners. Another Cover 3 miracle? Only time will tell.

One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunities tend to lead to more success. Short of being able to predict how often a particular defender will fail to do his job, we can get a better sense of what offensive players will thrive based on the number of opportunities they get when scoring a touchdown is the most likely. Thanks to the explosion of advanced analytics over the years, finding more specific information is much easier than it used to be. This year, I'll finally be able to take the next step in the evolution of this article, which is to present more than what teams and individuals do inside the 20.

Red-zone analysis helps owners get a sense of what teams are doing in prime scoring territory, but looking at what teams do solely inside the 20 doesn't provide the total picture. And it makes sense why: just like in basketball where the field-goal percentage goes down as the shot get progressively longer, the percentage of teams scoring a touchdown on any given play go down the further away a team is from the goal line. In keeping up with the basketball metaphor, fantasy owners aren't concerned with the first few passes that led to the shot; we want successful conversions. The point to be made here is a lot more touchdowns are scored inside the 5 and inside the 10 than between the 11 and 20.

Below is a key for the abbreviations you will see below:

Tgt – Target
Rec – Reception
TD – Receiving touchdown

Note: The cutoff for players to qualify for this list was four red-zone targets. Because of the variance in targets (extreme in some cases) across the various websites I used, there is a chance a player with four or more red-zone targets according to one site may not have made this list. Due to these differences, I could not justify using the same kind "Tm %"-like metrics I used in the runners part of this piece.

One reason why Jacksonville passed so much in scoring territory was because it didn’t feel it had the "hammer" it needed. Another reason might have been the remarkable efficiency Allen Robinson (10-for-10 on 17 targets) and Allen Hurns (3-for-4 on eight) displayed inside the 10; only one catch the duo made did not go for a score. The pair was almost as good inside the 20 as well, combining to score 17 times on 25 receptions and 35 targets. Julius Thomas was pretty much money in the bank too, scoring on all three of his catches inside the 10. The addition of Chris Ivory is going to hurt somebody from this trio, but there is an automatic assumption the player will be Hurns because can't possibly repeat what he did last season - either because he is an undrafted free agent that got "lucky" or the notion the Jags can't possibly support four fantasy-relevant backs/receivers/tight ends. The more likely scenario is one that includes the team creating more red-zone chances simply because the defense should be much-improved. After all, more weapons should lead to more efficiency, right? Let's also not forget OC Greg Olson's aforementioned history: he loves to call pass plays in the red zone (nearly 60 percent of his red-zone calls over his career have been pass plays).

If your eyes lit up every time the Bengals made it into the red zone last season, chances are you were a Tyler Eifert owner. Take a good look at his totals inside the 20 (11 touchdowns, 12 catches, 15 targets) and inside the 10 (8-8-9) because you may not see that kind of efficiency in both areas again from another player anytime soon. Yes, Allen Robinson was close, but that's not the point: perfection is hard to achieve, especially the closer a team gets to the stripe. The law of averages tends to balance out over time, either because defenses cut off the path of least resistance or offenses adjust and find another go-to guy. In Cincinnati's case, A.J. Green also enjoyed 100 percent efficiency inside the 10 and has consistently finished in the low-20s in term of red-zone targets throughout his career. It'd be silly to predict a career season for someone as accomplished as Green - especially since we have no idea about what kind of play-caller new OC Ken Zampese is - but the chips are definitely falling into place for that to happen. By now, owners are fully aware that Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd are being asked to replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and Eifert could miss time early in the regular season. I'm not sure that means an Eric Decker-like 28 red-zone looks and 17 targets inside the 10, but I'd willing to bet on a bump of at least five targets in each area from last year's modest numbers. Based solely on Green's conversion rates last year, he'd be in line for at least 11 red-zone scores (and we all know he is good for a few big-play TDs every year as well) with the increased attention.

I'm eager to see how Detroit manufactures its offense this season. Very few know the Lions scored a touchdown on 69.4 percent of their red-zone possessions, good for the seventh-highest mark over the past 13 seasons for teams that reached the red zone at least three times per game, and crossed the stripe on 27.2 percent of their red-zone plays - the fifth-highest total over that same timeframe. Furthermore, 34 of their 40 touchdowns came inside the 20, which means they had next-to-no ability to create big scoring plays. If all of those numbers sound unsustainable, it is because they are. We've already discussed Matthew Stafford's stunning accuracy in tight quarters a year ago, which is also unlikely to be duplicated anytime soon in the Motor City. Further consider a good chunk of that efficiency came as a result of Calvin Johnson's brilliance, which will no longer be a rock upon which can rely on going forward. What does it all mean? Golden Tate (6-11-18; 6-10-12) needs to perform at least to the level he did in 2015 after showing few red-zone chops for most of the early part of his career, and Eric Ebron likely needs to display the same level of efficiency Megatron did last year. Even then, the running game has to get on track for any of it to matter.

Mike Evans accumulated 145 targets to Vincent Jackson's 62 a season ago. Both finished with three touchdowns, but that isn't even close to the most surprising stat in my mind. Evans caught only two of his 13 red-zone targets, which represents a level of incompetence that will be hard to repeat. Although he led the league in drops last year, don't be so quick to pin the blame on him, however. Vincent Jackson was only marginally better than Evans. In fact, there wasn't really a Buc involved in the passing game that was particularly efficient in the red zone, meaning Jameis Winston needs to be better. One only needs to refer to the running game chart earlier to see Tampa Bay (Winston and Doug Martin in particular) saved itself by performing well above average on the ground. It's obviously not a surprise to see a rookie quarterback struggle throwing the ball on an offense that cycled through so many receivers and was the worst team in the league a season earlier, but it does shed a clear light on the fact Winston has much work to do. Based on offseason reports out of Tampa, it appears he's on the right track. More importantly from the receivers' point of view, both Jackson and Evans in particular stand to be considerably more productive in fantasy in 2016.

Odell Beckham - along with Antonio Brown - are probably considered to be among the best big-play receivers in the game today, so it isn't terribly surprising to see them with low reception and target totals inside the 10 - relatively speaking - when compared to their overall catch totals. Both wideouts are a shade below 6-0 as well, so it is not as if this observation should come as a shock, although OBJ's six targets inside the 10 do seem low. The aforementioned size restriction, however, does not apply to the 6-1, 205-pound DeAndre Hopkins, who plays the ball in the air about as well as any receiver in the game today. His red-zone targets are in line with what one might expect from an elite receiver. (For what it is worth, there is a wide degree of variance on how many targets inside the 20 he actually had; I have seen the number range from 20 - which is the one listed above - to a league-high 29. At any rate, 20-plus targets is an elite number, so I’m less concerned about the discrepancy here than I would be in other cases.) His involvement dropped off considerably inside the 10, though as Hopkins was targeted a mere six times, which is a lower number than Rueben Randle, Jamison Crowder, Eddie Royal and Andre Johnson - among many others - posted last season. Hopkins turned all four of his opportunities in that area into touchdowns, so efficiency wasn't a problem. He was only targeted four times inside the 10 in 2014, which leads me to believe he is being limited by some combination of the following three factors: 1) the parade of quarterbacks to take snaps in Houston over the last two seasons has eliminated any chance of Hopkins getting a more significant piece of the pie near the goal line, 2) HC Bill O'Brien is a stout believer in the running game in such situations or 3) defenses are putting a premium on stopping Hopkins inside the 10. In short, just when you thought Hopkins might have hit his ceiling with 111 catches, 1,521 yards and 11 scores last year, I'm telling you there is some more room for growth with new QB Brock Osweiler under center.

As stunning as Hopkins' lack of involvement inside the 10 was, it pales in comparison to our next subject, Amari Cooper, who was shut out in the same area despite ending his rookie season with a stellar 72-1,070-6 line. And by "shut out", I don't mean he was held out of the end zone, I mean he wasn't even targeted inside the 10! The fact Derek Carr only had 15 attempts in this area certainly didn't help matters, but Michael Crabtree (eight targets, two scores) made out all right in spite of the lack of volume. If we choose to believe the Raiders didn't intentionally freeze out their rookie in 2015, then his present and future owners should be excited about what should be in store for this season. Cooper is a big-play threat for sure (four of his scores came from at least 26 yards away), but he is so much more than that. Despite not drawing a single target inside the 10, he was knocking on the door of being a low-end fantasy WR1 before a foot injury slowed him down considerably the last quarter of the season. Even if we do nothing more than bump up his 2015 catch and yardage totals 15 percent - which I think is a bit conservative considering the talent and the fact he probably would have hit 80 receptions as a rookie had he stayed healthy - we are left with 83 catches and 1,231 yards. Let's further assume he keeps his same six touchdowns outside the 10 and turns a couple of those elusive targets inside the 10 into touchdowns. We are left with 254.1 points in PPR leagues - a total that would have made him WR13 a season ago, right behind Calvin Johnson. Owners shouldn't have a problem with him as their top option at receiver, but they should be absolutely thrilled to land him as their second wideout.

As 105-catch, 1,304-plus yard seasons go, Demaryius Thomas' 2015 campaign was a disappointment. Perhaps we should have seen it coming: there was no way Denver was going to throw nearly as often as it did under former OC Adam Gase, but the reduced volume was supposed to be mitigated by the loss of TE Julius Thomas to Jacksonville. While it was also reasonable to expect a moderate decline from QB Peyton Manning, most of us could not prepare for the degree to which it happened. Manning's drop-off was far from the only negative byproduct resulting from the change to HC Gary Kubiak's offense. Thomas admitted last month he was distracted in 2015, and he attributes the fact he was tied for third in the league in drops to the issues he was dealing with at the time. His owners can cite the following numbers as to the main reason he fell so short of preseason expectations last year: three TDs on 11 catches on 19 red-zone targets and two scores on three receptions and 11 targets inside the 10. Both sets of numbers fall woefully short of the 6-18-39 and 4-6-18, respectively, from the previous year. With Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian likely battling it out in camp for the right to start under center for at least the first 8-12 weeks of the season, don't expect a return to anything approaching his lofty 2014 standards. His overall efficiency figures to be better just because we are talking about an elite talent with two straight 100-catch and four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, but asking him to return to his days of catching more than 10 touchdowns given the current state of affairs in Denver is probably asking too much.

When projecting stats and/or potential future impact, it's rarely ever a good idea to essentially carry over the numbers from the departing player and use them as a baseline for the newcomer. In this next case, I feel it is justified because I believe it is important to establish floors in fantasy, and I don't think it is stretch to suggest that incoming athletic freak Ladarius Green is a substantial upgrade over a late-career Heath Miller. Certainly, we must understand there are intangibles to consider, such as the trust one builds from playing with the same quarterback for 11 straight years like Miller did with Ben Roethlisberger. Miller - even in his prime - was a short to intermediate target, whereas Green is a field-stretcher. What they do share is size. Despite clearly being in decline in 2015, Miller, who tallied 60 catches in his final year, was still targeted 12 times inside the red zone and eight times inside the 10 on a team that had the game's most dynamic receiver and a very efficient running attack (as detailed in the running section). The high reception total and Miller's red-zone involvement means we should be able to set a pretty high floor for Green, who also figures to double as the team's best deep threat after Antonio Brown. If we can figure on the ex-Charger replicating Miller's catch total and assume Green can maintain his career 14.1 YPC while scoring three times inside AND outside the 20, his floor should be 60-847-6. Those marks would leave him with 180.7 points in PPR, which would have been good for ninth a season. When one considers that sixth-place Tyler Eifert scored only 11 more points, Green can make a case to finish as a top-five tight end if he can stay healthy.

Next | Quarterbacks | Runners