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Trade Targets - WRs & TEs



By Doug Orth | 10/25/24 |

The trade deadline in many leagues is still about a month away, but fantasy managers should use this time to identify some of the players who may not be valued the way they should be right now.

This week, I will highlight 13 players (wide receivers and tight ends) who I believe are not being valued correctly. After I discuss my stance on the player and some of the numbers that support my stance, I will also provide readers an idea of who and/or what they should expect in return.

Nico Collins

Trade For: Nico Collins / Mike Evans

These two stud receivers are in the same boat (nursing a hamstring injury). The major difference between the two is the that former was among the leaders at his position group in fantasy scoring before his injury and is due back in Week 10, while the latter sits 15th in total points and is due back in Week 12. There is also no question Evans may be easier to acquire at this point given he is just beginning his recovery. The thing is that I believe both can still be had at a discount and have similar league-winning upside once they return. Allow me to explain:

Collins ranks 11th in overall scoring at receiver despite missing the better part of the last three games. Through the first month of the season, Malik Nabers and Collins were averaging at least three points per game than most of the rest of the field. Collins was C.J. Stroud's unquestioned favorite target in the red zone (seven end zone targets) and the man Houston looked to on vertical shots (46 percent of the team's air yards), which are the two highest-value targets a receiver can have. His 27.6 percent target share over that same time means he was seeing a significant number of short and intermediate targets as well, while his 34.7 percent first-read share is wildly impressive for a player who was competing with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs for targets.

Fantasy managers may have to wait a bit longer for Evans, but it should end up paying off in the end. The risk with that opinion is that Evans appeared to be in much more pain at the time of his injury than Collins, so there is some doubt in my mind that Evans will be completely healed by Week 12. Assuming Evans is good to go at that point, there is not a high-quality cornerback or an opponent who should scare his managers (@NYG, @CAR, LV, @LAC, @DAL, CAR) for the rest of the season. Furthermore, Chris Godwin's unfortunate ankle injury leaves no doubt who the alpha receiver in Tampa will be when he returns. It would not surprise me at all if Evans and Collins end up being two of the top 10 fantasy receivers - if not top five - from Week 12 through the end of the fantasy playoffs.

Because Collins is due back in two weeks, his fantasy managers may feel inclined to wait it out at this point. To give you some idea of what he should command in a trade, I was offered Collins in exchange for Jonathon Brooks and DeVonta Smith last week. I rejected that trade in part because Smith was my WR1 and I was not ready to trust Amari Cooper as my new WR1 for three weeks following his trade to Buffalo. My other concern is that in-season soft-tissue injuries are prone to re-aggravation. Four weeks should be enough to heal a Grade 1 strain, but it feels like a complete roll of the dice to expect a player to have no issues with it whatsoever after he suffers one during the season.

As for Evans, I would feel good about offering Chuba Hubbard or maybe even Darnell Mooney to his fantasy managers. Evans' fantasy managers likely will struggle to go .500 during his expected four-week absence, which means their team could be out of luck by Week 12. The thought of getting some production over that time while Evans is occupying bench space during the bye-week crunch - he will not be placed on IR - may be too daunting for his current managers.

Trade For: Jaylen Waddle

It will admittedly not be easy to pull off a trade for Waddle because most of his fantasy managers rightfully assume Miami's offense will be much better with Tua Tagovailoa under center. With that said, there is a distinct possibility many of those same managers will be willing to part with Waddle at about 75 cents on the dollar considering their team has not seen their likely WR2 (or WR1 in a running-back heavy build) score in double figures since Week 1. In short, they probably cannot afford to hold out hope that Waddle will go right back to his pre-2024 self.

Since Week 1 was the only game that Tagovailoa started and finished, it is difficult to make any sweeping generalizations about what Waddle can be this season. Therefore, all I can do is share some of his advanced metrics from that game. He recorded 17.9 percent of the team's first read and designed targets and 4.04 yards per route run while running a route on 65.9 percent of the team's drop-backs against Jacksonville. As Tyreek Hill's tag-team partner, Waddle will rarely face extra defensive attention, so his ceiling is usually very high. Unfortunately, Hill is so good that he can get open almost at will regardless of how a defense is defending him, which is the primary reason Waddle has yet to become a superstar. Furthermore, Miami's desire to get De'Von Achane more involved this season also robs Waddle of some of the opportunities that existed for him in previous years.

Waddle has been and will likely continue to be a solid fantasy WR2, so interested managers probably need to offer a player in that range to acquire him. Stefon Diggs is probably on the high end of assets I would be comfortable parting with in exchange for Waddle. Diontae Johnson is another, although I have my doubts fantasy managers would need to give up that much in either case. Josh Jacobs would be among the running backs I would consider trading straight up for Waddle, although I would want a bit more if I was the one dealing Jacobs.

Honorable mention

DeVonta Smith - Though not to the same extent as Waddle, Smith's fantasy managers may be hurting a bit due to the timing of his concussion (which caused him to miss Week 4), the team's Week 5 bye and an odd contest in Week 7 in which he was only targeted twice in a game Philadelphia attempted 15 passes. All of that chaos means Smith has contributed only one decent fantasy effort in a month. With games coming up against the Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders, Rams and Ravens in five of the next six weeks, a repeat of last week seems highly unlikely. Despite last week's dud, Smith is still the overall WR24 by average. I expect him to finish inside the top 15.

Demario Douglas - Easily the most realistic trade target of the receivers discussed so far, Douglas has been nothing short of an enigma so far. His only useful fantasy performance in the first four weeks was a 14.8-point showing - largely during garbage time - in Week 3. His first "real" effort was drawing nine targets in Jacoby Brissett's final start in Week 5. With rookie Drake Maye making his first start in Week 6, Douglas had his coming-out party. Just as the fantasy community was starting to warm up to Maye's top target, New England conveniently forgot to inform anyone the public that Douglas needed anti-nausea medication in addition to an IV before the team's Week 7 game so that he could attempt to play through an illness. The point here is that while I (and now, you) understand why Douglas has been so up and down so far, his current manager is likely wondering if he can ever count on "Pop" to deliver consecutive solid fantasy performances. All that his current and future managers need to know is that Douglas has been targeted on 40.5 percent of Maye's pass attempts when the two have shared the field. Maye noted during the offseason that Douglas reminded him of Josh Downs - his old college teammate at North Carolina. That connection has been obvious in the part of three games the two have played together.

Trade Away: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison is someone who could easily be a player to trade away now and acquire in about a month. Why is that? To this point of the season, he has been much more of a matchup-based start than a true WR1. In Weeks 2-4, he faced two porous pass defenses (Lions and Commanders) and a Rams defense that had yet to realize how much of a liability Tre'Davious White was in coverage. In those games, Harrison accumulated 14 catches for 239 yards and four touchdowns. In every other game he has played, he has faced a defense that ranks inside the top half of the stingiest defenses against fantasy wide receivers. In those four contests, Harrison has totaled six receptions for 61 scoreless yards. While there is more to Harrison's struggles than just the matchup, his disappointing start is also a strong indication that he needs a bit of help from Kyler Murray and OC Drew Petzing to be the WR1 he was drafted to be. The problem is he will not be getting much help from the schedule anytime soon. Over the next month, he faces three of the seven stingiest defenses against fantasy receivers in the Dolphins, Bears and Jets before going on a bye in Week 11. After that, the schedule opens up nicely. Unfortunately, most of his fantasy managers do not have the luxury of waiting that long for him to come around.

Regarding how Petzing could do more to help Harrison out, it is mildly interesting how Petzing is using him. While Harrison did not test at the NFL Scouting Combine, it is probably safe to say he is less of an athletic freak or speed demon and more of a smooth route-runner. That is what makes the fact that nearly a quarter of his routes (23.5 percent) have been go routes. The go route is, by far, the one route he has run the most and it is by far the one route he is getting the least amount of separation. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Harrison's Average Separation Score on go routes is -.075. Along with slants, they are the only two routes in which his average separation score is a negative number. Those two routes account for about 30 percent of the routes he is running. In short, he is being used too often as a clear-out receiver and less as the nuanced route technician he was in college.

Harrison admittedly will not bring back in a trade what he would have a month ago, but I am willing to bet most fantasy managers of George Pickens, Tee Higgins and Amari Cooper would think long and hard about agreeing to a trade. All three are players I would prefer more than Harrison at the moment. About a month ago, I was fortunate enough to receive the following offer that I quickly accepted: Harrison and Javonte Williams for Kenneth Walker and Alec Pierce. (I am very deep at receiver in that league, which made it easier to accept.) If you can make a similar swap now, I would highly recommend doing so.

Jauan Jennings

Trade Away: Jauan Jennings

There are few things fantasy managers who live to play the stock market game enjoy more than when a non-elite player has a huge game. More than anything, that game will be the first thing other managers think about whenever they hear his name. Jennings showed the world he was more than just a marginal third receiver for the 49ers in Week 3 when he erupted for 11 touches, 175 yards and three touchdowns. Since Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk returned in Week 4, Jennings has totaled seven receptions for 128 scoreless yards. (He missed Week 7 with a hip injury and may not play this week, which means we may not see him again until after the team's Week 9 bye.) None of that seems to be affecting fantasy managers in the leagues where Jennings was available, as he has routinely attracted hefty FAAB bids. About the only things his current fantasy managers can think about now when they consider Jennings is his Week 3 performance and the fact he is the most likely replacement for Aiyuk in the 49ers offense.

There within lies the problem. In Week 3, Jennings had a near-perfect setup. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle did not play. The Rams were still relying on Tre'Davious White as a starting cornerback. (The Rams have since played well against the pass.) The only real competition for targets in that game was Aiyuk. When the 49ers return from their Week 9 bye, McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle should be available. Ricky Pearsall may also be a bigger part of the offense at that point. Will Jennings still be a key piece of the puzzle? Yes. Does he have any chance of remaining the top 20 fantasy he is now? Doubtful.

Jennings' value is tough to quantify for the sake of trying to determine what he might bring back in a trade, but I would rather have Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams or Jaylen Warren.

Honorable mention

Wan'Dale Robinson - There is a good chance Robinson continues to accumulate targets at a ridiculous rate (his 67 targets through the first seven weeks rank second only to Garrett Wilson). There is also a good possibility Robinson's current fantasy manager snagged him off the waiver wire or late in their draft, so they may be more inclined to enjoy the ride as long as they can. My reasoning for him being a "trade away" is simple: Daniel Jones may not be a great quarterback, but he is good enough most of the time to feed his top two receivers. I am not sure the same can be said for Drew Lock. Especially given how poorly Jones played in Week 7, the Giants may feel obligated to see if someone else can give their offense a spark down the road. It seems highly unlikely that Lock or Tommy DeVito will be able to do that. If New York feels as though it has no choice but to turn to one of those two players, then we may have to start viewing Malik Nabers as a WR2 and Robinson as a hit-or-miss WR4 despite their incredible volume.

Darnell Mooney - It pains me to include Mooney here because he is a player I was much higher on than most in the industry. Much like Robinson, he has been a very good value and someone who has been a more-than-serviceable WR3. With that said, there comes a time when an investment appears to be performing better than what it actually is. Mooney ranks as the overall WR17 entering Week 8 largely on the strength of his Week 5 explosion (9-105-2). If that game had been more in line with the rest of his season, Mooney would likely be hanging out in the WR25-30 neighborhood.

Please understand what I am trying to say: Mooney has been good and will continue to be good. I just think it will be too much to ask him to maintain his current target volume (7.6 per game) in an offense that wants to make Bijan Robinson and Drake London the centerpieces. Kyle Pitts has become more of a priority of late as well. Ray-Ray McCloud has also become much more of a factor than anyone could have reasonably anticipated this summer. Mooney is by no means someone who should be traded away because he is one of the few clear second receivers on his team who has proven he can be an alpha if the No. 1 receiver is sidelined. What I am saying is that if the Falcons' pass-catchers stay reasonably healthy, I do not see Mooney remaining a top 25 fantasy receiver. With that said, I would wait until after this week to trade him. The aforementioned Week 5 eruption spot came against the Bucs - this week's opponent. While we cannot expect a repeat of that performance, Tampa Bay's secondary has not improved much - if at all - since then.

Trade For: David Njoku

The fear of the Cleveland offense is real. At least it was before Deshaun Watson was lost for the season. Somewhat ironically, the news of Jameis Winston taking over as a starter has created hope in an offense. It was not that long ago the mention of the mere mention of Winston's name was met with an eye roll. At any rate, the Njoku breakout was probably going to happen regardless of whether Watson or Winston was the quarterback as soon as it became official that Amari Cooper was traded. Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore will command targets, but the ship has probably sailed on either player becoming the centerpiece of a passing attack. While I am a big fan of Cedric Tillman and expect him to become a regular fantasy starter taking over Cooper's role in a Winston-led offense, those three players probably will not average 20 targets between them. I believe two of the primary reasons Cooper was traded (outside of the fact the Browns were surprised to get what they did for him) were that they believed Tillman was ready to start and Njoku was ready to become the featured attraction in the passing game.

This recommendation may seem a bit convenient coming off last week's performance (10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown), but the price fantasy managers will pay now versus what they may have to pay in a week should be different enough to try to get a deal done this week. Njoku may not see 14 targets in a game again this season, but we already know what he is capable of based on how he finished last season. Give him a quarterback who is willing to be aggressive and let him go to work. That is not to say Winston is a young Joe Flacco, but he may have a similar effect on this offense as soon as the offensive line gets healthy. Another reason to like Njoku moving forward is a schedule that is VERY favorable against tight ends. The Browns do not face a defense currently ranked inside the top 16 in terms of fewest points allowed to the position again until Week 17. Three of the matchups over that time are against teams that are among the five friendliest matchups for tight ends.

Njoku, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson and maybe Travis Kelce or Evan Engram will likely be in their own tier over the second half of the season. It would not surprise me if Njoku ended up being the best of the bunch. While I will not go so far as to say I would trade Bowers, Kittle or McBride straight up for Njoku right now, I could see my opinion changing on that in a week or two.

Honorable mention

Hunter Henry - Henry should not be a free agent in any competitive league. In the same way that I expect the promotion of Drake Maye to be what makes Demario Douglas a consistent fantasy option moving forward, Henry should provide some peace of mind for the rookie quarterback against zone coverage and particularly inside the red zone. In Maye's first two starts, Henry has 11 catches on 14 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown. Given the state of affairs at tight end again this season, any player in that position that has eight-catch upside (something he has done twice in seven games) and capable of finding the end zone is worth starting. He is the overall TE6 (total points) and has not benefited from good quarterback play for most of that time. Because he is a free agent in as many leagues as he is, it is almost pointless to recommend what it might take to acquire him. There is a good chance he can be had for a good handcuff running back or a receiver capable of starting in the flex.

Trade Away: Cole Kmet

What we know is that Kmet has 20-point fantasy upside, especially when one of Chicago's top three receivers (D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze) is not available. What I would bet against is that Kmet will continue to have a meaningful role in the Chicago passing game if all three of those receivers stay healthy after the bye. Allen and Kmet operate in the same area of the field for the most part, while Odunze will almost certainly see his role grow over the second half of the season - as is usually the case for talented rookie receivers. Moore will continue to command around 25 percent of the team's targets. D'Andre Swift will also get four or five looks per game as well. Much as we suspected at the beginning of the season, Kmet will likely fall victim to a numbers game - especially playing for a rookie quarterback who has no chance of supporting four players for fantasy purposes. Kmet enters Week 8 as the overall TE3 - a ranking I believe he has no chance of maintaining.

Honorable mention

Mark Andrews - In the interest of full disclosure, I am not sure many tight ends outside of the ones I have mentioned at some point in the last three summaries actually have much trade value. Seriously. Shop Dallas Goedert or Kyle Pitts around your league right now and see how many managers express interest. Both players rank inside the top 11 tight ends in fantasy points per game. The reason I am regrettably putting Andrews here is because he has scored three times in the last two weeks, which may create some interest among managers who remember what he was like in his prime and when Baltimore did not have the options it does now. His biggest problem is that he is only running a route on 53 percent of drop-backs and does not even lead his position group in targets. (That honor goes to Isaiah Likely.) The Ravens are so good offensively that Andrews is bound to be a good fantasy option from time to time moving forward, but his current usage makes him more of a touchdown-or-bust option than he has ever been.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."