The trade deadline in many leagues is still about a month away,
but fantasy managers should use this time to identify some of the
players who may not be valued the way they should be right now.
This week, I will highlight 13 players (wide receivers and tight
ends) who I believe are not being valued correctly. After I discuss
my stance on the player and some of the numbers that support my
stance, I will also provide readers an idea of who and/or what
they should expect in return.
These two stud receivers are in the same boat (nursing a hamstring
injury). The major difference between the two is the that former
was among the leaders at his position group in fantasy scoring
before his injury and is due back in Week 10, while the latter
sits 15th in total points and is due back in Week 12. There is
also no question Evans may be easier to acquire at this point
given he is just beginning his recovery. The thing is that I believe
both can still be had at a discount and have similar league-winning
upside once they return. Allow me to explain:
Collins ranks 11th in overall scoring at receiver despite missing
the better part of the last three games. Through the first month
of the season, Malik Nabers and Collins were averaging at least
three points per game than most of the rest of the field. Collins
was C.J. Stroud's unquestioned favorite target in the red zone
(seven end zone targets) and the man Houston looked to on vertical
shots (46 percent of the team's air yards), which are the two
highest-value targets a receiver can have. His 27.6 percent target
share over that same time means he was seeing a significant number
of short and intermediate targets as well, while his 34.7 percent
first-read share is wildly impressive for a player who was competing
with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs for targets.
Fantasy managers may have to wait a bit longer for Evans, but
it should end up paying off in the end. The risk with that opinion
is that Evans appeared to be in much more pain at the time of
his injury than Collins, so there is some doubt in my mind that
Evans will be completely healed by Week 12. Assuming Evans is
good to go at that point, there is not a high-quality cornerback
or an opponent who should scare his managers (@NYG, @CAR, LV,
@LAC, @DAL, CAR) for the rest of the season. Furthermore, Chris Godwin's unfortunate ankle injury leaves no doubt who the alpha
receiver in Tampa will be when he returns. It would not surprise
me at all if Evans and Collins end up being two of the top 10
fantasy receivers - if not top five - from Week 12 through the
end of the fantasy playoffs.
Because Collins is due back in two weeks, his fantasy managers
may feel inclined to wait it out at this point. To give you some
idea of what he should command in a trade, I was offered Collins
in exchange for Jonathon Brooks and DeVonta Smith last week. I
rejected that trade in part because Smith was my WR1 and I was
not ready to trust Amari Cooper as my new WR1 for three weeks
following his trade to Buffalo. My other concern is that in-season
soft-tissue injuries are prone to re-aggravation. Four weeks should
be enough to heal a Grade 1 strain, but it feels like a complete
roll of the dice to expect a player to have no issues with it
whatsoever after he suffers one during the season.
As for Evans, I would feel good about offering Chuba Hubbard
or maybe even Darnell Mooney to his fantasy managers. Evans' fantasy
managers likely will struggle to go .500 during his expected four-week
absence, which means their team could be out of luck by Week 12.
The thought of getting some production over that time while Evans
is occupying bench space during the bye-week crunch - he will
not be placed on IR - may be too daunting for his current managers.
It will admittedly not be easy to pull off a trade for Waddle
because most of his fantasy managers rightfully assume Miami's
offense will be much better with Tua Tagovailoa under center.
With that said, there is a distinct possibility many of those
same managers will be willing to part with Waddle at about 75
cents on the dollar considering their team has not seen their
likely WR2 (or WR1 in a running-back heavy build) score in double
figures since Week 1. In short, they probably cannot afford to
hold out hope that Waddle will go right back to his pre-2024 self.
Since Week 1 was the only game that Tagovailoa started and finished,
it is difficult to make any sweeping generalizations about what
Waddle can be this season. Therefore, all I can do is share some
of his advanced metrics from that game. He recorded 17.9 percent
of the team's first read and designed targets and 4.04 yards per
route run while running a route on 65.9 percent of the team's
drop-backs against Jacksonville. As Tyreek
Hill's tag-team partner, Waddle will rarely face extra defensive
attention, so his ceiling is usually very high. Unfortunately,
Hill is so good that he can get open almost at will regardless
of how a defense is defending him, which is the primary reason
Waddle has yet to become a superstar. Furthermore, Miami's desire
to get De'Von
Achane more involved this season also robs Waddle of some
of the opportunities that existed for him in previous years.
Waddle has been and will likely continue to be a solid fantasy
WR2, so interested managers probably need to offer a player in
that range to acquire him. Stefon
Diggs is probably on the high end of assets I would be comfortable
parting with in exchange for Waddle. Diontae
Johnson is another, although I have my doubts fantasy managers
would need to give up that much in either case. Josh
Jacobs would be among the running backs I would consider trading
straight up for Waddle, although I would want a bit more if I
was the one dealing Jacobs.
Honorable mention
DeVonta
Smith - Though not to the same extent
as Waddle, Smith's fantasy managers may be hurting a bit due to
the timing of his concussion (which caused him to miss Week 4),
the team's Week 5 bye and an odd contest in Week 7 in which he
was only targeted twice in a game Philadelphia attempted 15 passes.
All of that chaos means Smith has contributed only one decent
fantasy effort in a month. With games coming up against the Bengals,
Cowboys, Commanders, Rams and Ravens in five of the next six weeks,
a repeat of last week seems highly unlikely. Despite last week's
dud, Smith is still the overall WR24 by average. I expect him
to finish inside the top 15.
Demario
Douglas - Easily the most realistic
trade target of the receivers discussed so far, Douglas has been
nothing short of an enigma so far. His only useful fantasy performance
in the first four weeks was a 14.8-point showing - largely during
garbage time - in Week 3. His first "real" effort was drawing
nine targets in Jacoby
Brissett's final start in Week 5. With rookie Drake
Maye making his first start in Week 6, Douglas had his coming-out
party. Just as the fantasy community was starting to warm up to
Maye's top target, New England conveniently forgot to inform anyone
the public that Douglas needed anti-nausea medication in addition
to an IV before the team's Week 7 game so that he could attempt
to play through an illness. The point here is that while I (and
now, you) understand why Douglas has been so up and down so far,
his current manager is likely wondering if he can ever count on
"Pop" to deliver consecutive solid fantasy performances. All that
his current and future managers need to know is that Douglas has
been targeted on 40.5 percent of Maye's pass attempts when the
two have shared the field. Maye noted during the offseason that
Douglas reminded him of Josh
Downs - his old college teammate at North Carolina. That connection
has been obvious in the part of three games the two have played
together.
Harrison is someone who could easily be a player to trade away
now and acquire in about a month. Why is that? To this point of
the season, he has been much more of a matchup-based start than
a true WR1. In Weeks 2-4, he faced two porous pass defenses (Lions
and Commanders) and a Rams defense that had yet to realize how
much of a liability Tre'Davious
White was in coverage. In those games, Harrison accumulated
14 catches for 239 yards and four touchdowns. In every other game
he has played, he has faced a defense that ranks inside the top
half of the stingiest defenses against fantasy wide receivers.
In those four contests, Harrison has totaled six receptions for
61 scoreless yards. While there is more to Harrison's struggles
than just the matchup, his disappointing start is also a strong
indication that he needs a bit of help from Kyler
Murray and OC Drew Petzing to be the WR1 he was drafted to
be. The problem is he will not be getting much help from the schedule
anytime soon. Over the next month, he faces three of the seven
stingiest defenses against fantasy receivers in the Dolphins,
Bears and Jets before going on a bye in Week 11. After that, the
schedule opens up nicely. Unfortunately, most of his fantasy managers
do not have the luxury of waiting that long for him to come around.
Regarding how Petzing could do more to help Harrison out, it
is mildly interesting how Petzing is using him. While Harrison
did not test at the NFL Scouting Combine, it is probably safe
to say he is less of an athletic freak or speed demon and more
of a smooth route-runner. That is what makes the fact that nearly
a quarter of his routes (23.5 percent) have been go routes. The
go route is, by far, the one route he has run the most and it
is by far the one route he is getting the least amount of separation.
Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Harrison's Average Separation
Score on go routes is -.075. Along with slants, they are the only
two routes in which his average separation score is a negative
number. Those two routes account for about 30 percent of the routes
he is running. In short, he is being used too often as a clear-out
receiver and less as the nuanced route technician he was in college.
Harrison admittedly will not bring back in a trade what he would
have a month ago, but I am willing to bet most fantasy managers
of George Pickens,
Tee Higgins
and Amari Cooper
would think long and hard about agreeing to a trade. All three
are players I would prefer more than Harrison at the moment. About
a month ago, I was fortunate enough to receive the following offer
that I quickly accepted: Harrison and Javonte
Williams for Kenneth
Walker and Alec
Pierce. (I am very deep at receiver in that league, which
made it easier to accept.) If you can make a similar swap now,
I would highly recommend doing so.
There are few things fantasy managers who live to play the stock
market game enjoy more than when a non-elite player has a huge
game. More than anything, that game will be the first thing other
managers think about whenever they hear his name. Jennings showed
the world he was more than just a marginal third receiver for
the 49ers in Week 3 when he erupted for 11 touches, 175 yards
and three touchdowns. Since Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk returned
in Week 4, Jennings has totaled seven receptions for 128 scoreless
yards. (He missed Week 7 with a hip injury and may not play this
week, which means we may not see him again until after the team's
Week 9 bye.) None of that seems to be affecting fantasy managers
in the leagues where Jennings was available, as he has routinely
attracted hefty FAAB bids. About the only things his current fantasy
managers can think about now when they consider Jennings is his
Week 3 performance and the fact he is the most likely replacement
for Aiyuk in the 49ers offense.
There within lies the problem. In Week 3, Jennings had a near-perfect
setup. Christian
McCaffrey, Deebo
Samuel and George
Kittle did not play. The Rams were still relying on Tre'Davious
White as a starting cornerback. (The Rams have since played
well against the pass.) The only real competition for targets
in that game was Aiyuk. When the 49ers return from their Week
9 bye, McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle should be available. Ricky
Pearsall may also be a bigger part of the offense at that
point. Will Jennings still be a key piece of the puzzle? Yes.
Does he have any chance of remaining the top 20 fantasy he is
now? Doubtful.
Wan'Dale
Robinson - There is a good chance
Robinson continues to accumulate targets at a ridiculous rate
(his 67 targets through the first seven weeks rank second only
to Garrett
Wilson). There is also a good possibility Robinson's current
fantasy manager snagged him off the waiver wire or late in their
draft, so they may be more inclined to enjoy the ride as long
as they can. My reasoning for him being a "trade away" is simple:
Daniel Jones
may not be a great quarterback, but he is good enough most of
the time to feed his top two receivers. I am not sure the same
can be said for Drew
Lock. Especially given how poorly Jones played in Week 7,
the Giants may feel obligated to see if someone else can give
their offense a spark down the road. It seems highly unlikely
that Lock or Tommy
DeVito will be able to do that. If New York feels as though
it has no choice but to turn to one of those two players, then
we may have to start viewing Malik Nabers as a WR2 and Robinson
as a hit-or-miss WR4 despite their incredible volume.
Darnell
Mooney - It pains me to include
Mooney here because he is a player I was much higher on than most
in the industry. Much like Robinson, he has been a very good value
and someone who has been a more-than-serviceable WR3. With that
said, there comes a time when an investment appears to be performing
better than what it actually is. Mooney ranks as the overall WR17
entering Week 8 largely on the strength of his Week 5 explosion
(9-105-2). If that game had been more in line with the rest of
his season, Mooney would likely be hanging out in the WR25-30
neighborhood.
Please understand what I am trying to say: Mooney has been good
and will continue to be good. I just think it will be too much
to ask him to maintain his current target volume (7.6 per game)
in an offense that wants to make Bijan Robinson and Drake London
the centerpieces. Kyle Pitts has become more of a priority of
late as well. Ray-Ray McCloud has also become much more of a factor
than anyone could have reasonably anticipated this summer. Mooney
is by no means someone who should be traded away because he is
one of the few clear second receivers on his team who has proven
he can be an alpha if the No. 1 receiver is sidelined. What I
am saying is that if the Falcons' pass-catchers stay reasonably
healthy, I do not see Mooney remaining a top 25 fantasy receiver.
With that said, I would wait until after this week to trade him.
The aforementioned Week 5 eruption spot came against the Bucs
- this week's opponent. While we cannot expect a repeat of that
performance, Tampa Bay's secondary has not improved much - if
at all - since then.
The fear of the Cleveland offense is real. At least it was before
Deshaun Watson
was lost for the season. Somewhat ironically, the news of Jameis
Winston taking over as a starter has created hope in an offense.
It was not that long ago the mention of the mere mention of Winston's
name was met with an eye roll. At any rate, the Njoku breakout
was probably going to happen regardless of whether Watson or Winston
was the quarterback as soon as it became official that Amari
Cooper was traded. Jerry
Jeudy and Elijah
Moore will command targets, but the ship has probably sailed
on either player becoming the centerpiece of a passing attack.
While I am a big fan of Cedric
Tillman and expect him to become a regular fantasy starter
taking over Cooper's role in a Winston-led offense, those three
players probably will not average 20 targets between them. I believe
two of the primary reasons Cooper was traded (outside of the fact
the Browns were surprised to get what they did for him) were that
they believed Tillman was ready to start and Njoku was ready to
become the featured attraction in the passing game.
This recommendation may seem a bit convenient coming off last
week's performance (10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown),
but the price fantasy managers will pay now versus what they may
have to pay in a week should be different enough to try to get
a deal done this week. Njoku may not see 14 targets in a game
again this season, but we already know what he is capable of based
on how he finished last season. Give him a quarterback who is
willing to be aggressive and let him go to work. That is not to
say Winston is a young Joe Flacco, but he may have a similar effect
on this offense as soon as the offensive line gets healthy. Another
reason to like Njoku moving forward is a schedule that is VERY
favorable against tight ends. The Browns do not face a defense
currently ranked inside the top 16 in terms of fewest points allowed
to the position again until Week 17. Three of the matchups over
that time are against teams that are among the five friendliest
matchups for tight ends.
Njoku, Brock
Bowers, Trey
McBride, George
Kittle, Jake
Ferguson and maybe Travis
Kelce or Evan
Engram will likely be in their own tier over the second half
of the season. It would not surprise me if Njoku ended up being
the best of the bunch. While I will not go so far as to say I
would trade Bowers, Kittle or McBride straight up for Njoku right
now, I could see my opinion changing on that in a week or two.
Honorable mention
Hunter
Henry - Henry should not be a free
agent in any competitive league. In the same way that I expect
the promotion of Drake
Maye to be what makes Demario
Douglas a consistent fantasy option moving forward, Henry
should provide some peace of mind for the rookie quarterback against
zone coverage and particularly inside the red zone. In Maye's
first two starts, Henry has 11 catches on 14 targets for 133 yards
and a touchdown. Given the state of affairs at tight end again
this season, any player in that position that has eight-catch
upside (something he has done twice in seven games) and capable
of finding the end zone is worth starting. He is the overall TE6
(total points) and has not benefited from good quarterback play
for most of that time. Because he is a free agent in as many leagues
as he is, it is almost pointless to recommend what it might take
to acquire him. There is a good chance he can be had for a good
handcuff running back or a receiver capable of starting in the
flex.
What we know is that Kmet has 20-point fantasy upside, especially
when one of Chicago's top three receivers (D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze) is not available. What I would bet against
is that Kmet will continue to have a meaningful role in the Chicago
passing game if all three of those receivers stay healthy after
the bye. Allen and Kmet operate in the same area of the field
for the most part, while Odunze will almost certainly see his
role grow over the second half of the season - as is usually the
case for talented rookie receivers. Moore will continue to command
around 25 percent of the team's targets. D'Andre Swift will also
get four or five looks per game as well. Much as we suspected
at the beginning of the season, Kmet will likely fall victim to
a numbers game - especially playing for a rookie quarterback who
has no chance of supporting four players for fantasy purposes.
Kmet enters Week 8 as the overall TE3 - a ranking I believe he
has no chance of maintaining.
Honorable mention
Mark
Andrews - In the interest of full
disclosure, I am not sure many tight ends outside of the ones
I have mentioned at some point in the last three summaries actually
have much trade value. Seriously. Shop Dallas
Goedert or Kyle
Pitts around your league right now and see how many managers
express interest. Both players rank inside the top 11 tight ends
in fantasy points per game. The reason I am regrettably putting
Andrews here is because he has scored three times in the last
two weeks, which may create some interest among managers who remember
what he was like in his prime and when Baltimore did not have
the options it does now. His biggest problem is that he is only
running a route on 53 percent of drop-backs and does not even
lead his position group in targets. (That honor goes to Isaiah
Likely.) The Ravens are so good offensively that Andrews is
bound to be a good fantasy option from time to time moving forward,
but his current usage makes him more of a touchdown-or-bust option
than he has ever been.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."