We’d all love to have a backfield of Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey, but it doesn’t ever work out that way (except in
my dreams and a few auction leagues). In fact, only a select few
teams even have three-down workhorse backs these days. Which means
to successfully build a two-running back lineup, it will require
you to decipher the multitude of “running-back-by-committee”
rosters.
Our goal is to find at least one back out of each RBBC group
who can produce 12.4 FPts/G (the average 24th-best back from 2011-2020
in full PPR leagues). For a 17-game season this equates to 210.8
fantasy points.
For my purposes, I will evaluate any team where I expect no single
back will see more than 65% of the team’s rushing attempts.
Conner arrives from the Steelers in a slump having watched his
production drop from 21.5 FPts/G in 2018 ranking him sixth-best
overall, to 14.8 in 2019 and 12.7 last season (ranked 28th). And
that was as the workhorse guy in Pittsburgh. He always looked
a step slow last season. He’ll have to share the rushing work
and concede the majority of receiving work to the incumbent Edmonds.
Edmonds is likely the only guy out of this backfield to produce
enough points to be a fantasy starter and in our June 21 projections
we have him earning 238 fantasy points or 14 FPts/G.
Dobbins is getting a lot of love in mock drafts, but he may have
trouble earning his draft position (ADP 26.2 and the 15th overall
RB). Sure, the Ravens are the No.1 rushing team in the league
(3071 yards), but obviously Lamar Jackson grabs a good share of
the yards and touchdowns off the top (1005 and 7 TDs last season).
Meanwhile, Edwards has gotten pretty consistent work over the
past three seasons (137, 133 and 144 rushing attempts). Neither
back gets much play in the passing game which could leave Dobbins
overvalued on Draft Day as a middle third rounder.
Over the final games of last season, Moss saw more work than
Singletary, who fell off from his rookie season. And at 225 lbs.,
Moss is better in goal line situations outscoring Singletary 4-2
on the ground. Meanwhile, both lost out while Josh Allen scored
eight times with his legs. Behind Allen and the Bills passing
game, the ground game was, and likely will be, an afterthought
in 2021. Neither back should be expected to consistently produce
12 fantasy points a game.
In 2020, Hunt actually had more rushing attempts than Chubb,
but that’s misleading because he played four more games
(16-12). Still, it shows how much the team values Hunt, who is
also the better receiver. Meanwhile, when healthy, Chubb is as
scary and explosive as Henry with the football in his hands. While
he won’t see 378 rushing attempts like Henry, he should
certainly see enough to be an RB1 despite his passing game weakness.
Hunt should also be viable, though not at Chubb’s level
behind PFF’s No.1 ranked OL. Despite Odell Beckham Jr.,
Jarvis Landry and the receiving corps, this is still a run-first
offense, and that makes both guys fantasy-worthy.
The Broncos’ OL wasn’t very good at run-blocking
last season, which made things difficult for Gordon and Phillip
Lindsay. They may not be much better in 2021 so both Gordon and
rookie Williams have their work cut out for them. Additionally,
the Broncos frequently fell behind on the scoreboard and had to
play catch up. Early on, Gordon figures to get a majority of the
work, but if Denver falls out of the playoff race, Williams could
see a second-half upgrade. If you handcuff the two you might be
able to get some low-end value, but neither figures to be a season-long
option.
Had the Lions not picked up a guy as talented as Jamaal Williams,
D’Andre Swift would be getting a lot of love behind an offensive
line that is developing quickly into one of the best. Swift averaged
14.9 FPts/G last season, including plenty of receiving work, but
Williams has excellent hands (70-489-6 over last two seasons)
and could take some of that work away. The Lions were also poking
around Todd Gurley which would muddy the waters further. As long
as Gurley isn’t in a Lions uniform, Swift should be viable,
though he might regress a little with less receiving work.
I’m not sure what to make of the entire Houston offense
given the question mark at quarterback. Management also brought
in quality depth to the Texans’ running back room with veteran
Mark Ingram and Lindsay. Lindsay can catch the ball and Ingram
could steal carries from Johnson, who was a nice surprise in 2020
averaging 15.1 FPts/G. However, if all three stay healthy, it’s
going to be difficult for any of them to average 12 FPts/G.
The Colts have a deep and talented running back room led by the
second-year stud Taylor. Hines is an excellent receiver and before
his ACL injury in the first week of 2020 Mack was produced good
results. However, this really isn’t an RBBC, it just seems
like one. Taylor should continue to improve and become a workhorse
back, Hines should be reduced to a third-down receiving role and
handcuff and if Mack shows he’s healthy in preseason could
be traded to a running-back needy team (Atlanta perhaps?). Taylor
will a top-10 back again this season.
Robinson should feel slighted after such an impressive rookie
season from an UDFA (240-1070-7 and 49-344-3). He finished fifth
in FPts/G at 17.9. And yet the team spent a first-round choice
on Etienne (No. 25), who was a teammate for the new starting quarterback
Trevor Lawrence at Clemson. They also signed veteran Carlos Hyde.
At this point, this looks to be near a 50-50 split with Hyde perhaps
vulturing a couple of goal line touchdowns. Both Robinson and
Etienne figure to struggle to get to the 12 PPG level barring
an injury.
Ekeler is a poor-man’s Alvin Kamara. He’s just as
good catching the ball, but not up to Kamara’s running ability.
And that’s the issue. Chargers’ management keeps trying
to find a better pure running option. Unfortunately, neither Joshua
Kelley (3.2 ypc) or Justin Jackson is that guy. As long as they
don’t find “that guy” Ekeler will see enough
carries to combine with his receiving ability to be not only fantasy-worthy,
but right around bottom of the top-10 in full PPR leagues.
The off-season acquisition of Drake sent shock waves to Jacobs’
fantasy owners. Although Jacobs’ productivity dropped a
bit (4.8 ypc to 3.9 and 8.3 ypr to 7.2), he still raised his production
from 14.9 FPts/G to 15.7 through volume. Drake saw 239 carries
in Arizona last season and Jacobs rushed 273 times in 2020. Something
has to give since they aren’t going to run the ball 525+
times this season. Gruden talking about Drake said,” he
can run it, catch it and return it.” To me that says Jacobs
is our starter, Drake is his handcuff if injured and third-down
back and part-time returner if he is not. Still, Jacobs’
numbers will take a hit with Drake in uniform, but he should still
be a solid 13 FPts/G runner. He’ll just never be an elite
three-down workhorse.
Heading into the draft it seemed logical for the Dolphins to
draft a running back early on, but they never did, instead selecting
Gerrid Doaks in the seventh round (No.244). Doaks is a project
and shouldn’t bother Gaskin. Malcolm Brown, however, could
steal goal line work because of his size. Gaskin proved to be
excellent in the passing game and if he can stay healthy (he played
just 10 games last season and seven in 2019), can still be a low-end
RB2.
Selecting a Patriots’ running back is almost always a sign
masochism. In 20 years, no one has yet solved the mystery of how
and why Bill Belichick uses his running backs. Harris should get
the first shot at running the ball, but he’ll rarely catch
the ball as long as James White is healthy. Michel will likely
get enough work to ruin it for Harris and himself. And if Cam
Newton is still the quarterback then he’ll vulture too many
short touchdown runs from both of them. Barring injury, I see
very few ways that any of the trio will be fantasy-worthy on a
consistent basis.
This backfield is probably best avoided since OC Mike LaFleur
is known to use the “committee” approach. Coleman,
the oft-injured back, most recently spent time in San Francisco,
so will have the advantage of knowing the system and the coaching
staff. But he’s never carried a big workload even when he
was averaging 12-14 FPts/G in Atlanta as he shared the backfield
with Devonta Freeman. The rookie Carter is also devoid of workhorse
experience as he shared the backfield at UNC with Javonte Williams
(see Denver). Carter might be the more explosive of the two and
will see immediate work in what should be a fairly even split
of the workload. However, it’s likely neither will be fantasy-worthy
except perhaps during bye weeks or an injury to the handcuff.
Mostert has never averaged less than 5.0 yards-per-carry in San
Francisco and that should continue. He’s also never carried
the ball more than 137 times in a season. The 49ers’ haven’t
had a workhorse since Carlos Hyde in 2017 (299 touches). With
Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman gone and Jeff Wilson sidelined
for 4-6 months, management spent a third-round pick on Trey Sermon
from Ohio State. He’ll see plenty of work on the ground,
but has limited receiving experience. As always there will be
plenty of work in this run-first offense, but it will be shared
by the likes of fullback Kyle Juszczyk and Wayne Gallman as well
as the two top guys - Mostert and Sermon. Both Mostert and Sermon
will have a couple good games, but consistency is unlikely in
a Kyle Shanahan offense.
Both backs had their moments last season. Jones rushed for 192
yards against Carolina and produced three consecutive 100-yards
games in the first half of the season. Fournette was a star in
the Super Bowl (135 combined yards and one score). Both will have
their moments on the ground again in 2021, but management brought
in Bernard from Cincinnati, who is an excellent receiving back.
Jones usually got the start last season and if he got hot early
the coaching staff rode the hot hand. So if I had to choose one
it would be Jones. More likely, Jones and Fournette should be
handcuffed because the only way one will become a consistent fantasy-worthy
starter is if the other is sidelined.
