One unintentional benefit of starting my projections later than just about every other writer is that I don’t spend my entire summer trumpeting the cause of a certain player or group of players. In this business, two easy ways to go south fast are to: 1) fold under the avalanche of public opinion and 2) be unwilling to change your initial impression of a player. To that second point, there is a social psychology paradigm called “effort justification” that asserts people have a tendency to attribute a greater value (greater than the objective value) to an outcome they had to put effort into acquiring or achieving. For the purposes of this article, it is all too easy to fall into the trap of moving a player up or down a board when you’ve had the entire spring and summer to ponder how you feel about him, discuss his merits or listen to the talking heads on television tell you how you should feel about him. Before you know it, you’ve invested enough emotional cache into said player that you feel as if you have little choice but to stand your ground. There’s a pretty good chance that if you were a bit down on a player back in late May and spent more than just a few minutes rationalizing to others why he is going to bust this season, you are probably even more convinced of it now. In other words, you are almost compelled to justify your effort into his “bust campaign”.

In no way am I suggesting that I haven’t been or won’t be guilty of this myself because, by the time I have reached the projection phase of my PMAs, I have typed at least few hundred words about most of the players that will have some degree of impact in fantasy this season. However, I usually make it a habit to remind readers or listeners that I won’t truly know how I feel about a player until I am done projecting all eight divisions and start stacking up my Big Board. Obviously, I enter this process higher on some players than others, but I am often surprised during the course of these week-to-week projections that my initial impression doesn’t match up with the numbers I project for him – good or bad. I think the fact that analyzing the matchup helps keep me honest is a good thing.

On the downside (and it is a small downside, relatively speaking), I’m not quite done with my projections – and thus, have yet to start my Big Board – each year when I am asked to participate in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) “Pros vs. Joes” competition. Nevertheless, it is a great honor to take part in the challenge and something I look forward to each year. (Feel free to take a look at the results from Sunday’s draft by clicking “Draft” under “League” near the top of the page.) In this 26-round Draftmaster-style, best-ball format where owners’ only move of the season is drafting their teams, I believe I drafted my best team in the three years I have been associated with this event. The key differences in this league from the ones in which I typically play are that tight ends receive 1.5 points per reception and passing touchdowns are worth four points.

Last week, I kicked off my fifth year of projecting each player on every team game-by-game, two divisions at a time. This week, I turn my attention to the North as we continue our march to the first Big Board of the season.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2013.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC North

Matchup analysis: The Super Bowl champs did not catch a break with their schedule, catching four of last season’s top 10 rush defenses (lowest YPC allowed) in Denver, Houston, Miami and Pittsburgh – with three of those games on the road before the break. As long as Rice gets the work he should in the passing game, his opponent typically won’t alter his overall fantasy production all that much. However, the early string of difficult defenses will pose more of an issue for any owners hoping to count on Pierce as an early bye-week fill-in. The post-bye slate doesn’t get any easier for Rice or Pierce, which means Rice had better hope he is correct about catching more passes this season because the Ravens could have more difficulty running the ball than they did in 2012. As gloomy as it looks for the running game, it appears downright awful for Smith. Before the bye, it is entirely possible he will run the majority of his routes against a fresh Champ Bailey, Joe Haden, Johnathan Joseph, Stephon Gilmore, a potentially healthy Brent Grimes and Ike Taylor. Of that bunch, Haden, Joseph and Taylor have established themselves as good “shadow” cornerbacks while Bailey, Gilmore and Grimes can or have all played that role with great success from time to time. The second half is only slightly easier for Smith, meaning a huge third-year jump for Smith is highly unlikely. By comparison, Pitta will have it much easier and could push 80 receptions if the Ravens find themselves behind in enough games.

Matchup analysis: In order to make a respectable showing through the first 11 weeks, Cincinnati is probably going to need every one of its weapons. There are occasions where the Bengals forget they have Green, but he’s about as consistent and “matchup-proof” as receivers get, so a repeat of last season can’t be dismissed just because he runs the gauntlet in terms of likely cornerback matchups before the bye. The Dalton-to-Green connection could really start cooking around fantasy playoff time, however. The second-starting receiver in this offense (likely Sanu) will naturally see less attention since Green commands so much of it, but he could also catch a break because a handful of the teams Cincinnati faces have “shadow” corners without a solid sidekick opposite them. Sanu should have the physical advantage in those games (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Buffalo, the Jets and possibly Miami). Ten of the Bengals’ 15 opponents during the fantasy season in 2013 held opponents to the league average (4.3 YPC) or worse in 2012 and there is little reason to believe that more than one or two won’t be there again this season. Green-Ellis was already a poor bet to see his production drop dramatically because of Bernard, so the fact that the matchups project to be so difficult make it entirely possible Cincinnati will opt for the rookie’s explosiveness at some point this season and relegate “Law Firm” to short-yardage duties. Regardless of which back leads the backfield, it is possible neither will reach 1,000 total yards barring injury.

Matchup analysis: As talented as Richardson is, he will almost certainly need the volume he is likely to receive in order to overcome a treacherous schedule. In between top-notch run defenses (Miami, Minnesota and Baltimore twice), teams that could get a big lead early (Green Bay) or have both in their favor (Cincinnati and Detroit), the second-year back could struggle at various points throughout the first half of the season. While it doesn’t get much better after the bye, Richardson could be a second-half stud if Pittsburgh’s aging defense experiences any kind of falloff and/or New England struggles – relatively speaking – to score as it has become accustomed to in recent years. The Bears figure to become more of an offensive team under new HC Marc Trestman while the Jets will likely struggle all season, making Richardson a solid fantasy playoff bet. Safety and linebacker play are important against Turner’s tight end-heavy offenses and this schedule should be conducive to Cameron’s rise to fantasy prominence. Baltimore, Minnesota and Detroit should serve as early tests for him, but if he can pass any or all of those tests, he should be well on his way to a top 5-10 finish at his position. Because Turner’s offenses are vertical-based, size and speed (as well as the ability to play the ball in the air) are often almost as important as route-running, meaning Gordon and Little should have a better shot at succeeding against a difficult run of corners over the first five weeks, then from Weeks 8-12 and finally again in the fantasy playoffs.

Matchup analysis: Bell will be given every opportunity to carry the running game, although September figures to be a bit of a slow month with Cincinnati, Chicago and Minnesota all more than capable of keeping the Steelers’ running game in check. The Jets and Raiders could offer a bit of relief following the bye, but the rookie is likely going to need two of the strengths from his college days (volume and durability) in order to consistently fare well during the second half of the season. Baltimore (twice), New England, Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami and Cincinnati should each present a pretty stiff challenge for a running game that has the athleticism to dominate in the new scheme, but doesn’t have a back that possesses the breakaway speed to gash opposing defenses for long runs. Brown is probably a bit overmatched as a WR1, but he’ll be asked to carry that title in OC Todd Haley’s offense in 2013 and could actually perform like one early with few true dominant cornerbacks on the first-half schedule. Matchups against Antonio Cromartie, Lardarius Webb, Stephon Gilmore, Joe Haden and Brent Grimes don’t figure to help his cause in the second half, though, which could open the door for a big second half from Sanders – assuming he can stay healthy.

NFC North

Matchup analysis: Few cornerbacks can legitimately “shut down” Marshall, with a Week 15 showdown against Cleveland’s Joe Haden probably representing the most difficult matchup he will have this season. While he is highly unlikely to repeat his 118-1,508-11 line from 2012, defenses will not be able to commit the resources to slowing him down like they were able to last season either. He should be about as matchup-proof as receivers get, especially against this schedule. In turn, Jeffery and Bennett – assuming they can both stay healthy this year – should have fairly clear paths to career years with the attention Marshall will receive. September could be potentially difficult for Jeffery, but it is hard to imagine that many teams after that (outside of Baltimore, St. Louis and Dallas) have the scheme and/or personnel to match up with him. Bennett may sometimes be the fourth option in the passing game, but his early red-zone contributions in 2012 with the Giants likely did not go unnoticed by Trestman. Most linebackers are not a good matchup for him and, after a run of defenses that could keep him under control in the first half, most of the teams he will face in the second half lack a safety and/or linebacker with the ability to cover him – making him a possible fantasy trade-deadline target. Much like the passing game, Forte and the running game should benefit from a bit of a friendly schedule. Minnesota and Pittsburgh loom as difficult first-half opponents while Weeks 11-13 could also pose a bit of a hurdle, but Forte stands a very good chance at pushing the likes of Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush for the league lead in receptions by a running back – making him a rock-solid RB1 in both standard and PPR leagues despite a likely 6-7 touchdown ceiling.