For many of us who participate in high-stakes fantasy football,
playing in those leagues is a chance we probably shouldn't take
logically, but also one we can't seem to resist. Playing in money
leagues can in some ways serve a microcosm of life; every so often,
we must take calculated risks in order to get ahead.
I mention this because 2018 has been a very good year for my
fantasy teams if I'm being honest with myself. Only one of the
four teams that began the season with Leonard
Fournette on my roster is likely to miss the playoffs, while
four of my five Melvin
Gordon teams could/should make the postseason. Despite what
others may say about draft position and how it affects an owner's
ability to lead that team to the playoffs, making the postseason
consistently picking at the back end of the first round is difficult
in high-stakes leagues. I landed the No. 1 overall selection for
the first time in at least five years in one of my RealTime Sports
leagues - the first time I have picked higher than fourth in the
last 40 to 50 money leagues I have participated in - and the seventh
pick or later in my other eight money leagues this summer. So,
as much as I'd like to sit here and brag about doing well despite
only once having a chance to land someone like Todd
Gurley (or even Saquon
Barkley for that matter), that is not what this is about.
As I mentioned in one of my columns a little over a month ago,
I made the move to acquire Fournette shortly after he hit the
shelf for the second time this season in hopes I could pair him
with Gordon in the high-stakes league I feel like I had the best
chance to win. For most of the season, Jack Doyle has also occupied
space on my roster because we don't have an IR spot and the position
is so barren in fantasy right now that any tight end in the Colts'
offense was well worth waiting on, especially one that had already
earned the trust of Andrew Luck. The plan was simple: try to tread
water until Week 10 when Fournette (and hopefully Doyle) returned
and pair them with Drew Brees, Gordon and Julio Jones to give
my team a quartet (or quintet) capable of taking me to a title.
And then Week 12 happened. In one fell swoop, three players I
was counting on to start the rest of the way are done for the
season, out indefinitely or suspended. Trying to overcome this
avalanche of adversity at any point of the season is challenging,
but doing so one week before the start of the playoffs just seems
like cruel and unusual punishment. This team doesn't have a spot
locked up yet for the postseason yet, although one or two victory
points this week should do the trick. My team is scheduled to
play a one-win opponent this week but beating that team or scoring
enough fantasy points to get the victory point or two that I need
to advance just became a challenge I didn't ask for or need.
To be clear, I'm not cursing the fantasy gods. I am fully aware
other owners have had worse weeks and lived to tell about it.
It's just that very few of those owners were staring at a potential
$10,000 grand prize if their players could just stay healthy and/or
out of trouble for a month. So forgive me if I'm a little salty.
I am trying to keep the faith, however, as Fournette is only going
to miss one game and it is entirely possible (albeit unlikely)
Gordon could play in Week 14. (Week 15 seems more realistic, however.)
The problem is obviously remaining alive in the playoffs long
enough to take advantage of it. And in the two RTS leagues in
which I made the playoffs … you guessed it. I have Gordon
in one and Fournette in the other. The playoffs start this week.
One of the many good things about this hobby is we are rarely
ever alone in our misery. Week 12 was far from the most devastating
in terms of players lost to injury, suspension or demotion in
the roughly 20 years I've been playing, but it was one of the
worst-timed (certainly from my own selfish perspective). Perhaps
inspired by my own fantasy sorrow, I chose six players who saw
their seasons impacted dramatically as a result of last week (I
took one from Week 11, but I think it will make sense why I included
him) and opted to discuss who the next man up is and what I think
it all means as we move into December. I fully admit the quarterback
"losses" weren't overly dramatic, but the absences of
both players I discuss below will have an impact on either key
players.
The situation: Dalton tore ligaments in his
right thumb trying to dive on the ball after a bad snap that went
over his head. He will miss the rest of the season.
The replacement:Jeff
Driskel. Logging the first significant action of his pro career
in Week 12 despite being in the league since 2016, Driskel finished
17-of-29 for 155 yards and two touchdowns (one rushing) after
the Bengals fell behind 35-7 to the Browns. The 25-year-old spent
the majority of his college career at Florida before bumping up
his draft stock by throwing for 4,026 yards, 27 touchdowns and
eight interceptions following a transfer to Louisiana Tech. Driskel
is certainly on Dalton's level as a runner and more athletic,
as evidenced by his 323 yards and five touchdowns on the ground
in his only season as a Bulldog. Driskel has been on the roster
off and on for over two years and performed nicely in the preseason
with the Bengals, so he is no stranger to the team or the offensive
scheme.
How is everyone else affected? We'll start with
A.J.
Green, who is expected to return in Week 13 following a three-game
absence. Dalton and Green have been playing together since they
arrived in the same draft class in 2011, so owners can't expect
Driskel to have that kind of chemistry with him. To expect Green
to return as an elite fantasy WR1 would be a bit of a stretch
as a result, although it seems likely he'll see about the same
number of targets per game (9.5) that he did prior to suffering
his toe injury.
Is there much predictive value in what happened last week since
the Bengals obviously didn't plan for Driskel to play? Probably
not. Nevertheless, Boyd's six targets are slightly encouraging
since he and Driskel couldn't have spent much time together this
fall. The bigger problem here is that Boyd has become more of
a highly volatile low-end WR2 since his spectacular September.
Green's return will be good for him, but it's anyone's guess if
Cincinnati OC Bill Lazor will trust Driskel enough for him to
make two receivers relevant or simply choose to run the ball more
often in order to protect the Bengal from overextending their
woeful defense.
Considering Driskel and Uzomah likely spent plenty of time working
with each other either on scout team or in the limited time second-stringers
get before and during the season, it shouldn't come as a surprise
that Uzomah was a favorite target last week. Perhaps he sees a
slight bump in production moving forward, but the passing game
will almost certainly still revolve around Green and Boyd.
The situation: The long-awaited benching of
Bortles finally happened. Although he managed to avoid throwing
interceptions for a four-game stretch prior to Week 12, he lost
three fumbles over that span. Making matters worse, Jacksonville
was going to great lengths to hide him as a passer, as he managed
41 attempts over the last two weeks combined.
The replacement:Cody
Kessler is not a new name by any means, actually coming into
the NFL in the same year as Driskel but three rounds earlier.
It's hard to get excited about anything he brings to the table,
but Jacksonville will probably be happy if he can simply complete
60 percent of his passes and average no more than one turnover
every other game for the remainder of the season. Given he is
considered a "game manager," this should not be a difficult task
so long as the offensive line consistently gives him 2.5 seconds
to throw.
Week 7 was probably an anomaly for a few reasons, most notably
that Kessler entered the game trailing 20-0 after an early second-half
fumble from Bortles and Leonard Fournette was out of action. It
just happens the latter will be the case again this week against
the Colts, who cut through Jacksonville's defense like a hot knife
through butter in the first half of their Week 10 meeting. In
other words, a similar game script could play out.
Moncrief was on a bit of a roll in fantasy from Weeks 4-10, but
it would be a bit presumptuous (and probably foolish) to suggest
the insertion of Kessler is going to lead to some kind of rebirth
for Moncrief or the passing game. "Game managers" tend
to make safe throws absent a superstar receiver, so slot receiver
Westbrook and TE James O'Shaughnessy make some sense, although
I'm not going to trust either one at this point of the season
unless forced to do so. It seems more likely - especially with
their season headed nowhere fast - that the Jaguars give 30-plus
touches to Yeldon and Carlos Hyde and hope for the best in Week
13 before doing the same to Fournette the rest of the way.
The situation: Gordon entered Week 12 listed as questionable
on the injury report with a hamstring injury. He reportedly talked
his way into playing and performed very well for the two-plus
quarters he played. However, Gordon suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain
to his right knee on a double reverse with the Chargers leading
28-10 in the third quarter. He is considered "week-to-week."
The replacement(s):Austin Ekeler is the obvious addition in
those shallow leagues he might have been dropped due to his recent
lack of production prior to Week 12. Owners of Gordon likely remember
him sitting in Week 7 and Ekeler taking 42 of the 44 snaps. That
is an unusually low number of snaps for those wondering. Thus,
there is a good chance there will be more work for a second back.
Justin Jackson seems to be held in higher regard now than he was
back then, and he is the frontrunner to be that player. Detrez Newsome is also in the mix and impressed during the preseason,
although he is merely quality depth at this point for the Chargers.
Moving forward: As if readers couldn't tell
from my detail above two paragraphs above, I am more than a little
upset the Chargers had Gordon in the game with a three-score lead
when he was already questionable entering the game. (I thought
it was an obvious move to take him out at halftime and, quite
frankly, one half of football was all I really wanted him to play
last week.) That's the first crime Los Angeles committed. The
second was using him on a play that was not only risky but also
unnatural for a running back. No offense to Chargers' fans, but
it's hard to defend that level of brazenness or stupidity (I'll
let you make the call on the word choice) on a play call in that
situation with the player the team has chosen to build their offense
around this season.
While Gordon was probably going to put up his standard 100-plus
total yards and a touchdown against the Steelers this week, most
of his playoff-bound owners can probably work around his absence
in Week 13. Missing him in Week 14 against the lackluster Bengals
defense and possibly in a likely shootout in Week 15 versus the
Chiefs is a harder pill to swallow. Losing the overall RB5 (despite
missing one game - unlike the four backs in front of him - in
wonderful spots during the fantasy playoffs to a needless injury
is obviously not ideal.
Pushing that aside, Ekeler should be considered the obvious favorite
for touches, but Jackson makes a ton of sense on early downs.
Not only is he more physical than Ekeler, but he also showed the
ability to handle an enormous workload during his college days
(1,142 career carries at Northwestern). With more trust in Jackson
now, it seems unlikely the Chargers will want to double Ekeler's
playing time and leave themselves with two unproven rookies should
Ekeler get hurt. I can only imagine adding Jackson as a stash
at the moment - I would need to be truly desperate to start him
this week - but it's not hard to imagine him going for 40 yards
and a touchdown should he be used as I expected against the Bengals
and Chiefs. I personally think the Chargers will do everything
in the power to have Gordon back by Week 15 against Kansas City,
as they should still be in the hunt for the division title at
that point.
The situation: In the heat of the moment (at least that's what
I'm going to call it) of Donte Moncrief and Levi Wallace battling
for control the ball in the end zone - for what seemed like at
least a minute - on a play that was initially ruled a 30-yard
touchdown catch, players began shoving each other, with Shaq Lawson
initially going after Jaguars running back Carlos Hyde. Fournette
left the Jacksonville sideline around the same time and quickly
got involved in the fray, eventually trading punches with Lawson.
He was suspended one game and his appeal was denied, meaning he
will miss Week 13.
The replacement(s): We've seen this movie before. Hyde will almost
certainly draw the start and play on most obvious running downs,
while T.J. Yeldon will be the change-of-pace and back who plays
on passing downs as well as any negative game script or hurry-up
situations.
Moving forward: Jacksonville prides itself on
being a running game, partly because it wants to beat defenses
up physically and partly because it has little choice given its
quarterback situation. It's a philosophy that is unlikely to change
even with Fournette out - especially with Kessler under center
now - despite how shorthanded the offensive line is. Since this
figures to be only a one-game arrangement in Week 13, Hyde will
probably see a pretty healthy workload in the first half for however
long the Jaguars can hang with Indianapolis, while Yeldon should
own the second half. There's little question that if the game
goes according to script, Yeldon should be the better play and
is worth a start as a low-end RB2 option in most leagues. Hyde
will be more of a middling flex that owners hope can score a touchdown.
The situation: Johnson actually suffered his knee injury in Week
11 and is week-to-week with a sprained knee.
The replacement(s): For the small percentage of owners who threw
(or in this case, ran) a Hail Mary and used LeGarrette Blount
as a fill-in for Johnson in a brutal matchup on Thanksgiving Day,
congrats. Things happen in fantasy that shouldn't more often than
people like to talk about; that was one such case. Theo Riddick
has obviously seen his role increase as the season has progressed,
first with Golden Tate getting traded and later with Marvin Jones
getting injured. However, this coaching staff seems to understand
what he is - a weapon in the passing game and not a player who
should receive regular work as a runner (11 carries in nine games
this season).
Moving forward: There is a distinct chance the
Lions hold Johnson out for the rest of the season considering
their record (4-7) and their likelihood of making the playoffs
(almost nonexistent). Detroit should know what has in the rookie
by now and may not be overly compelled to bring him back if it
loses to the Rams in Week 13. C.J.
Anderson reportedly worked out for the team this week; his
workout may have been a sign the Lions are preparing to play the
rest of the year without Johnson. At the moment, Blount is the
only early-down option - at least the only one the coaching staff
seems to trust - remaining on a team that has invested a lot of
resources into becoming a more balanced offense. Until Anderson
signs (if he does), Blount seemingly has a clear path to 15-plus
carries. Given how little is left of the receiving corps, he may
push for 20. Blount is always scary to use because he is so one-dimensional,
has little big-play ability left and is a game-script dependent
back who plays for a bad team.
With that said, he may be the best fill-in play of any widely
available player I mention this week. The Rams have not been particularly
great stopping the run this year and may have Aqib Talib back
this week to shadow Kenny Golladay. Arizona (Week 14) has Patrick Peterson to shadow and given up a league-high 14 rushing TDs to
running backs. Buffalo (Week 15) has Tre'Davious White to follow
Golladay and is tied for third with 12 rushing TDs allowed to
runners. Detroit's upcoming schedule is the primary reason I'm
strongly considering Blount as my fill-in for Gordon. Negative
game script should not be a big concern against the Cardinals
or Bills, so owners taking the plunge with Blount moving forward
need to hope for an early score this week against the Rams. Obviously,
if Johnson returns in Week 14, then Blount becomes a touchdown-dependent
flex at best and Johnson becomes a high-end RB2.
The situation: Doyle saw limited playing time in Week 12 before
it was ultimately revealed that he suffered a kidney injury during
the game. He was hospitalized shortly thereafter and will miss
the rest of the season.
The replacement(s):Eric Ebron has led a charmed life this year,
even performing well for his fantasy owners when appearing on
the injury report - something that could rarely ever be said about
him during his four years in Detroit. In fact, things are working
out so well for him from a playing time perspective that even
potential vulture Mo Alie-Cox and Erik Swoope are sidelined with
injuries at the moment. While Ebron can't be expected to rival
the likes of Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz over the final four weeks
of the fantasy season, he seems like a good bet to challenge for
the No. 3 spot.
Moving forward: It's difficult to say much will
change in Indianapolis since the Colts have played so much of
the season without Doyle and relied so heavily on Ebron in the
red zone.
***************
Wrapping up on a positive note - sort of - it's a great idea to
handcuff your stud running backs on the brink of the fantasy postseason.
Going one step further, I would ask owners to consider the following
players likely to come off IR and/or join their team's active
roster in the next week or two:
I added this last section specifically for Kumerow. Maybe he
does absolutely nothing in the event he is activated this week,
but Green Bay has lacked weapons in the passing game Aaron Rodgers
can trust for the bulk of the season. We already know he trusts
Kumerow (or did as recently as this summer). Would it surprise
anyone if the Packers lined up Davante Adams and Kumerow on the
outside and put Marquez Valdes-Scantling back in the slot? I'm
not sure we can expect another Adam Thielen success story, but
would it really surprise anyone if one of the best quarterbacks
of our generation can make him a sudden star?
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.