Being able to predict opportunity - perhaps the most important variable
in fantasy football - is more than half of the battle when it comes
to being able to construct accurate rankings. Thus, the goal over
the next two weeks: provide thoughts and analysis on some of the
issues that played a factor in the way I distributed the workload
for each team. Unlike past years, I'll be breaking this into four
smaller, more easy-to-digest articles.
Notes: After much consternation, I decided on 15-game
workload projections. Although the industry judges players
and fantasy projections on year-end totals, the fantasy season
ends for the overwhelming majority of owners after Week 16. Furthermore,
it is nearly impossible to project what teams will do (or if they
even need to have certain players suit up) in Week 17 - especially
in a year like 2020.
The bolded numbers near the top of the middle three columns
are the 15-game totals for each team. Players who factored into
the overall pass attempt-carries-targets breakdown but are not
expected to receive a meaningful workload for fantasy purposes
have been excluded in the interest of brevity. The bolded numbers
in the last two columns reflect each team's projected run-pass
ratio. Last year's average plays per game included sacks, while
my projections do not - accounting for some of the gap in the
play averages under each table. Players with a
next to their name have some degree of injury concern.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 64.0 2019 Average Plays per Game: 59.6
There are a least a handful of reasons fantasy owners will choose
to fade Gordon this year. Among them will be his questionable
durability (he's missed at least two games in four of five pro
seasons), the quality of runners behind him on the depth chart
(specifically Lindsay) and an offensive line without much in the
way of star power. Here are two reasons why Gordon could surprise:
1) he consistently ranks among the top in the league in broken
tackles and 2) Denver is expected to use the same inside zone
scheme that Gordon thrived in during his college days at Wisconsin.
The fact Gordon performed as well as he did with the Chargers'
running outside zone behind what was usually a below-average offensive
line should speak volumes. The Broncos may not have an all-star
line for him to run behind, but this year's front five looks as
good on paper as anything Los Angeles put in front of him. With
Denver expected to field one of the league's better defenses,
the aforementioned on-the-rise offensive line and Lock still very
much in the developmental stage of his career, expect the Broncos
to be one of the more run-heavy offenses in the NFL - maybe with
enough volume to make Gordon a consistent RB2 and Lindsay a strong
flex option.
Perhaps another reason why Denver could be a run-oriented offense
is the youth of its key passing-game personnel. Lock, Sutton and
Fant are all in their second season, while Jeudy and Hamler are
rookies who have been limited to virtual learning this spring
and summer. There seems to be a lot of confidence that Fant and
specifically Sutton will flourish after building some chemistry
with Lock late last year, but it is noteworthy that Fant only
attracted 2.8 targets per game in five contests with the young
quarterback while Sutton averaged only 56 yards receiving to go
along with the 55 percent catch rate in those same games. It is
one reason why I initially liked Jeudy to emerge as the team's
top receiving threat as a rookie, but I'll admit this offseason
is going to make it extremely challenging for rookies - even polished
route-runners like Jeudy - to hit the ground running in September.
The safe play for fantasy purposes is to bet on Sutton's contested-catch
ability and familiarity with Lock over Jeudy's superior route-running,
at least for the bulk of the fantasy regular season. I do expect
the rookie to be a viable fantasy WR3 by year's end, however.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 61.3 2019 Average Plays per Game: 61.0
As a collective group, Kansas City running backs have not accounted
for more than 314 carries in a season since Kareem Hunt was a
rookie in 2017. Maybe Edwards-Helaire shines enough in 2020 that
he can bump that number up in the years to come, but the lack
of an offseason will likely be too much of an obstacle for most
rookies to overcome in their bid to run away with a starting job.
On the plus side for the pro-CEH crowd: Damien Williams' decision
to opt-out leaves DeAndre Washington, Darrel Williams and Thompson
as his only competition. Any one of the three could easily emerge
as the primary backup, but it's highly probable HC Andy Reid opts
to split duties among them (Thompson on early downs, Washington
on passing downs and Darrel Williams in short-yardage) if he needs
to go more than a series without the rookie. Either way, I foresee
Edwards-Helaire getting used much like Alvin Kamara (roughly 12-13
carries and about five targets per game) and everyone else battling
for whatever scraps are left, highly dependent on game script.
Hill had 137 targets in his last healthy year (2018) and Kelce
has averaged 143 in two full seasons with Mahomes as the unquestioned
starting quarterback. Assuming they can both play all 16 games
in 2020, Hill and Kelce should be on the other end of at least
45 percent of Mahomes' throws. There are two ways that number
dips closer to 40: 1) Watkins avoid injury for the majority of
the year again and plays like he did in the playoffs for at least
half of the regular season and/or 2) Edwards-Helaire does exactly
what I said above, doing his best Kamara impersonation in which
he runs option routes non-stop against overmatched linebackers.
The latter of the two has a decent chance of happening, and that
is reflected in my projections. I get the hype for Hardman as
a hedge for an injury to Hill and/or another disappearing act
from Watkins, but his 10th-round ADP is exorbitant for a third
receiver when a high-volume wideout like Jamison Crowder and a
receiver like Michael Pittman Jr. who should dominate in the red
zone is still available.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 64.6 2019 Average Plays per Game: 61.8
While there may be plenty of questions about his involvement
in the passing game moving forward, it is all about Jacobs in
the running game. In the 13 games in which he played as a rookie
- at least half with a significant shoulder injury - Jacobs handled
73.8 percent of the rushing attempts by Raiders' running backs.
With Richard and Bowden projected to be his primary backups, the
reliance on Jacobs to carry the load on the ground is unlikely
to lessen. The Raiders believe he's going to be a star and there
are metrics to back up that belief, such as an NFL-high 69 missed
tackles forced on runs and 842 yards after contact (seventh in
the league) - totals made all the more impressive when we consider
he missed three games. Further consider Carr completed just 15
throws that traveled at least 20 yards in the air and the Raiders
only had Waller to stretch the field last year. That's one reason
why drafting Ruggs made sense: defenses must think twice about
putting eight men in the box, which they did 20.3 percent of the
time against Jacobs last year.
Carr is coming off a season in which he became only the seventh
quarterback in league history to attempt at least 300 passes and
complete 70 percent of them. He did it with a receiver-turned-tight
end, a rookie slot receiver and virtually nothing else at wideout
after Williams. The lack of a typical offseason isn't going to
help Ruggs turn into the clear No. 1 option at receiver this team
so desperately needs him to be any sooner, but it's important
to remember that while he is scary fast, he is more than just
a deep threat. OC Greg Olson recently suggested Ruggs will begin
in the slot, which either bumps last year's top receiver (Renfrow)
outside or to the sideline much more than expected. Such a move
makes no sense if Las Vegas is trying to get its best players
on the field. Even without a downfield threat to play off of last
year, Renfrow turned heads over the second half of the season
(74-1,008-8 full-season pace and a 77 percent catch rate over
his last eight outings). While Waller still figures to be the
primary weapon in the passing game in 2020, the arrival of Witten
probably ruins whatever benefit he was about to derive from Ruggs'
presence. His 23.8 percent target share from last season will
take a sizeable hit as well.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 61.0 2019 Average Plays per Game: 62.3
Los Angeles running backs' full-season pace projection in eight
games under OC Shane Steichen last year: 384 carries for 1,738
yards and 16 touchdowns AND 150 catches on 192 targets for 1,508
yards and six TDs. Some of that extreme volume was the product
of Philip Rivers not being a threat as a runner AND his willingness
to check it down to the backs. The good news is Ekeler's role
shouldn't change much from last year when he logged 224 touches
- including 92 receptions - and set the fantasy world on fire.
The bad news is how different those touches might look this year.
Mobile quarterbacks like Taylor tend to tuck and run a lot more
than they dump it off to the running back. In other words, while
Ekeler will still be the recipient of plenty of designed dump-offs
and screens, the number of his "unplanned" catches should
drop considerably. Also of note: Steichen only allowed Ekeler
to carry the ball more than 10 times once. Jackson or Kelley could
easily emerge as an every-week flex starter given the expected
volume in the running game, assuming one of them can outperform
the other in camp. Good luck trying to figure out which one; the
limited media availability that will be commonplace this month
is unlikely to shed much light on position battles such as this
one.
It's a safe bet that Chargers quarterbacks are not going to match
the 597 throws they made last year, assuming the expectation they
will emulate the Ravens' offense come to fruition. That means
fewer targets for everybody, but Allen will remain a priority.
Even when Los Angeles barely went over 500 pass attempts in 2018,
the three-time Pro bowler was targeted 136 times and caught 97
passes. He's enjoyed a target share of at least 23 percent in
four of the last five seasons (he only played one game in 2016).
It's where the targets fall after Allen and Ekeler that should
be a bit of a concern. If Taylor's history with Charles Clay in
Buffalo is any indication, Henry should come reasonably close
to matching last year's career-high 76 targets. With that said,
he has suffered from the same kind of durability issues Clay has
in his career. Those three good - if not great - short-range targets
have managed to keep Williams stuck in a mostly field-stretching
role early in his career, and that's not great news given Taylor's
history. In three years as Buffalo's quarterback (his last time
as a full-time starter), Taylor completed 33 percent of his passes
that traveled at least 20 yards in the air.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 64.1 2019 Average Plays per Game: 62.5
After talking about this
backfield situation in some detail a couple of weeks ago,
allow me to bring a bit more attention to some of the highlights.
Two Arizona backs ran with eight men inside the box on less than
10 percent of their carries (only three other qualified backs
in the league could make that claim last year). Some of that is
a function of running four-wide sets 318 times in 2019 - 223 times
more than the next-closest team - some of that is having a mobile
threat like Murray keeping the backside pursuit at bay and some
of that is HC Kliff Kingsbury giving his offense the ability to
make adjustments - running against lighter boxes and passing against
heavier boxes - on the fly (112 RPO plays - good for the second-highest
total in the league). Touches were not a problem for Drake following
his trade from Miami; it's at least somewhat notable he saw at
least 22 carries in both of Arizona's wins. The Cardinals are
very likely to be protecting more leads in 2020, so Drake's ceiling
is extraordinarily high if Kingsbury continues to rely as heavily
on a workhorse as he did last year.
It is somewhat remarkable the Cardinals only attempted 554 passes
in 2019. With conditioning likely to be a problem for defenses
- especially early in the season - there is a high probability
many offensive coaches will subscribe to the "more is better"
philosophy, which makes me believe Arizona will be one of the
teams that push the pace even more. It's probably fair to ding
Hopkins a bit in fantasy this year because he will be playing
for a different team, but he could easily make up for what he
loses in targets (150 last year) by scoring more touchdowns (seven)
as the team's clear top option in the red zone. In Fitzgerald's
brilliant 16-year career, he's never finished with fewer than
103 targets or 58 receptions. He could easily continue the streak
in 2020; quarterbacks love the idea of knowing they can count
on a catch if they throw it in the general vicinity of a receiver.
Fitzgerald does that as well as any receiver in league history.
This year will be the first time in three pro seasons Kirk won't
be expected to emerge as the team's primary receiver by the end
of the season. Much like Calvin Ridley opposite Julio Jones, it
wouldn't be a total shock if Kirk thrives with Hopkins demanding
so much attention. Arnold drew praise from Murray following his
Arizona debut in Week 15 and needs to be on the radar of deep-league
owners.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 65.4 2019 Average Plays per Game: 66.1
We talked about the woeful run blocking the Rams had a few days
ago here in the Falcons'
section, but allow me to tweak a few things to highlight just
how bad the blocking was in LA. Using 600 snaps as the threshold,
Los Angeles' highest-graded run-blocking linemen were: David Edwards
(60th), Andrew Whitworth (110th), Rob Havenstein (118th) and Austin
Blythe (140th). Everyone else on the roster was either injured
or deemed not good enough to play ahead of that bunch. The Rams
did nothing of note to address the line in the offseason, adding
only No. 250 pick OG Tremayne Anchrum. To HC Sean McVay's credit,
he realized around Week 11 that he needed to rely more heavily
on two-tight sets and double-team blocks and less on outside zone
runs to beat the six-man fronts that were often overpowering the
Rams at the line of scrimmage, but better personnel is needed
too. While Todd Gurley may not be quite what he was even two years
ago, drafting Akers and hoping Henderson improves with another
year under his belt is unlikely to be enough to rejuvenate the
rushing attack.
Goff was blitzed 219 times (third-most in the league), threw
more 58 more passes within nine yards of the line of scrimmage
than he ever had and still experienced a two percent dip in completion
percentage in 2019. His deep-ball accuracy nosedived from 2018
as well. It's hard to see any of those numbers rebounding dramatically
given the team's aforementioned lack of offseason moves. Kupp
averaged 43.9 snaps in the slot in Weeks 1-10 (the games the Rams
relied heavily on 11 personnel as their base offense). That number
dropped to 27 per game starting in Week 11. As one might expect,
Kupp experienced roughly a 10 percent drop in slot production
(catches and yards). His overall targets dropped by four per game
and his receiving yardage fell off 36 yards per game. His 16-game
pace from Weeks 11-17: 82 catches on 98 targets for 843 yards
and 11 TDs. If a couple of those numbers don't look sustainable,
you're not alone in thinking so. Whereas Kupp's best game from
Weeks 11-17 was the 7-99-1 line he posted in the finale, Woods
averaged 7.5 catches for 94.7 yards over his last six games (he
missed Week 11). The most troubling thing about Higbee I
didn't discuss much here is this: he had 2 1/2 years (battling
Everett) to become the clear leader at the position and was not
able to do much more than split snaps over that time. Can his
supporters honestly believe five games overcomes what the coaching
staff saw (or didn't see) in practice from him for 3 1/2 years?
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 65.1 2019 Average Plays per Game: 63.3
In three seasons as the team's head coach, Kyle Shanahan has had
a different leading rusher each year. None of them have reached
1,000 yards, but each of them enjoyed a career year - up to that
point of their career anyway - in the season before San Francisco
moved on. The 49ers let the first leading rusher walk in free
agency (2017 - Carlos Hyde) and traded the 2018's leading rusher
Matt Breida) during this year's draft. If this isn't sounding
like the greatest news for Mostert, it's because it's not. Shanahan
has a strong propensity to stick with a running back for as long
as he's maximizing the scheme, but he's not afraid to change up
at a moment's notice. Most people will point to Coleman being
a threat - and typically reference his 105-yard, two-score performance
in the NFC Divisional Round as evidence - but let's not forget
San Francisco still has McKinnon on the roster. While he has become
a punchline for some, there's a reason he is still on the roster
- Shanahan believes he is a mismatch weapon at the very least.
I also find it curious the 49ers were able to get two of the better
college free-agent running backs to sign with them (JaMycal Hasty
and Salvon Ahmed), suggesting Coleman could be on the way out
if he doesn't show well in camp.
Shanahan's offense is often a blessing for tight ends, but it
comes as a bit of a curse for Kittle in that the rushing attack
is so efficient and productive that tight ends like Kittle don't
get quite the volume in the red zone that players of his caliber
typically do. At this point, the only thing keeping him from being
the best tight end in fantasy is his five-score ceiling. He'll
break through soon, and it could be as soon as this year. One
reason for that: Samuel's foot injury. Jones fractures can take
up to 12 weeks to heal, which has already put Samuel in danger
of missing the start of the season. Even worse, 15-20 percent
of Jones fractures do not heal without surgery. There is a distinct
chance Samuel begins the season on the PUP list if San Francisco
ultimately exercises extreme caution AND a distinct chance we
don't see the 2019 version of Samuel again until 2021. Many early
drafters have prepared for the possibility of Samuel being limited
by drafting Aiyuk, but it's almost as likely the little slot/big
slot combination of Taylor and Hurd take on a much bigger load
than anyone expects. The same case can be made for Bourne. The
early August addition of Reed should not be overlooked either,
although his injury history and standing on the depth chart behind
Kittle makes any chance of him providing a consistent meaningful
fantasy impact slim.
2020 Projected Average Plays per Game: 62.0 2019 Average Plays per Game: 65.4
The Seahawks are one of the few NFL teams that believe in a power
rushing attack and have been stubborn with it for years, almost
to a fault. Some of the blame belongs on the front office's inability
to find and develop blue-chip talent on the offensive line and/or
unwillingness to spend some money on a young pass-blocking anchor
in free agency. The expectation is that Carson will be ready for
Week 1 after avoiding hip surgery in the offseason. There's a
good chance most of us will be flying blind regarding his status
this summer, however, as reporting on topics such as how Carson
is running in practice will be hit-and-miss with limited media
availability. Hyde makes for a decent and necessary handcuff,
if only because Carson's durability was a question mark even before
the hip injury. The ship hasn't quite sailed yet for Penny in
Seattle, but he is expected to begin his third season with the
team on the PUP list after tearing his ACL late in 2019. He's
unlikely to make the same kind of push for playing time he was
late last season once he is cleared to return.
Just when it appears as if the Seahawks will have no choice but
to turn the offense over to Wilson because the defense is falling
apart, they go and pick up Jamal Adams. The former New York Jet
is not a cure-all by any means (especially for what figures to
be a questionable front four), but the back seven should be good
enough now to compensate, meaning Seattle should be able to remain
conservative on offense against the majority of opponents. Few
quarterback-receiver combos have better chemistry than Wilson
and Lockett, who would be considered one of the best wideouts
in the league by now if Seattle had ever made the passing game
more of a priority. OC Brian Schottenheimer expects to move Metcalf
around the formation more in 2020 and expand his route tree. One
of the biggest knocks on him entering the 2019 NFL Draft was a
perceived lack of ability to be much more than a vertical threat.
If Metcalf proves those doubters wrong, he should smash last year's
58-900-7 line. All of Seattle's injuries at tight end last season
may have made people forget Wilson has a history of leaning on
that position in the red zone. Olsen - even this aging version
of him - will be one of the better ones he's had to work with.
Health permitting, one more TE1 season from Olsen is a strong
possibility.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
next to their name have some degree of injury concern. 
