Auction drafting is my favorite way to build a fantasy football
team. While the general idea of this format is to allow every
owner an equal opportunity to acquire players, it combines the
ability to value a player’s potential contribution with
managing a budget, all while testing a drafter’s patience.
Perhaps most importantly, I feel it tests the conviction a fantasy
owner has in certain players more than a snake draft ever will.
Furthermore, it rewards the prepared and punishes the unprepared.
In snake drafts, it is obvious to anyone using a reliable and
well-organized draft board when a player is slipping. In auctions,
owners need to be keenly aware of what players are left and balance
that against their remaining funds. Owners must decide what players
they like the most and to what degree they are willing to go to
secure their services, which is perhaps the best part of auctions
- along with the aforementioned fact that every owner has an equal
opportunity to land a player.
It has been said that you get whom your league-mates allow you
to get in snake drafts, while you get to decide exactly how you
want to build your team in auctions. I think that is a great way
to look at the difference between the two formats. It is also
why I believe auctions should be the standard way of drafting.
This coming season will mark the 14th year I have participated
in The
Huddle Expert Auction League. Over the first 13 seasons, FFToday
made the six-team playoff 12 times and advanced to the championship
game on seven occasions, winning it all three times. Suffice
it to say my approach has proven to be effective.
This year’s draft took place on August 18, so keep that
date in mind as you review the prices each player went for below.
To help you as much as possible, I have updated my player valuations
to what I would pay now (as of Aug. 26).
Note: I took part in the 14-team King's
Classic Auction draft as well on Aug. 13. It is at least interesting
to see how the addition of two teams (not to mention three flex
spots on top of the two running back and three receiver starters)
into a league can dramatically affect the prices of some players
and how managers choose to build their teams.
General Auction Considerations/Strategies
Below you will find some of the rules I live by in auctions and
some of the reasons I believe I have enjoyed so much success in
this format. There are obviously more than 10 auction rules to
observe, but this should be a helpful list for most managers.
1. Use auction values customized to your league's
settings.
This may seem like a "duh" statement, but you might
be surprised how many fantasy owners fail to do it. One size does
not fit all. For the veteran fantasy owner who wants to create
their own (which I recommend), this objective can be achieved
by studying the values of players in your league over the last
year or two - especially for those at the top of each position.
When you can be confident in the price ceiling for the top players
at each position, it makes valuing every other player below them
much easier. I also like to get a sense as to how many players
at a particular position go for a double-digit bid (i.e. six quarterbacks
went for $10 or more, 15 running backs went for $20 or more, etc.).
I set my prices for players at what I believe should be their
ceiling, so I do not go over my valuation on a player unless there
is a specific objective I am trying to accomplish at that particular
moment. One exception to the last rule: I may be willing to go
$2 over on one of "my guys."
2. Find an easy way to identify "my guys."
Time is of the essence in most auctions, so fantasy managers
should have a quick and easy way to identify a player they are
targeting as they scroll up and down their lists. (This year,
I used a blue highlight in the "F Pos" column to identify
"my guys" easily. One of the best features of an auction
is that every fantasy manager has the same opportunity to land
each player - at least at the beginning of the draft. If you want
a certain player enough, odds are you will probably get him.
3. Identify the players you want as the core of your
team.
This is slightly different from the preceding paragraph in that
we are talking about a group of two or three foundation pieces
as opposed to a group of 30-40 players you would like to have
on the team.
4. Setting positional budgets is overrated.
While I can see how it might be helpful for the new auction player,
I have never set a pre-draft budget by position for any auction.
Much like snake drafting, fantasy owners should do whatever they
can to avoid backing themselves into a corner or creating more
obstacles for themselves. Some snake drafts dictate that we focus
on building around receivers, others around running backs and
still others give us a healthy mix. A similar thing can happen
in auctions. What if your budget for running back is 40 percent
and half of the other owners' budgets are 45-50 percent? Chances
are your running back-centric focus will need to become receiver-focused,
making it one more thing you need to adjust to on the fly. It
makes more sense to figure out before the draft how you want to
build around Cooper Kupp or Kyle Pitts or whomever you deem as
an acceptable low-end RB1 if the initial RB-centric plan does
not work.
5. Nominate with a purpose.
Nominating early in an auction draft should be about either securing
your foundation pieces or setting the expectation for a tier.
In other words, if I nominate Stefon Diggs and believe he is an
elite WR1, it should be because I want him or because I want to
know if I can trust my valuations for the rest of that tier. After
the first few rounds, I tend to nominate "buzzy" players
with an eye on trying to get my fellow owners to empty their pockets
a bit earlier than they would like. Other times, I will target
my nominations with an eye on getting a specific manager to open
up his checkbook on a player in hopes of eliminating him from
competition for another player I want more.
6. It's OK to enforce prices, but do not become THE
league's price enforcer.
Just like snake drafts, auction drafting is about collecting
value. Do not allow the bidding to stop on Josh Allen at $11 (assuming
a $200 cap). Seize him at $12 and figure out how to reconfigure
your draft plan after that. With that said, your job is to build
the best team possible. Your job is not to enforce prices on every
player that is going too cheap.
7. Keep 'em guessing and do not be afraid to force
the action. At the same time, do not rush into action too quickly.
Many auction players equate the draft room to a poker room. One
of the keys to being a good poker player is never giving your
opponents a tell. Nominate players you want and ones you don't
(do the latter early or else you might get stuck with a few $1
players you do not want). Do the same with your bidding. If you
are consistently changing things up with your nominations and
your bidding, the other managers in your league will not be able
to get a read on you … which becomes important if you play
with the same crew year after year.
Do not hesitate to be the man or woman in the draft room that
knows what he or she wants. Force the action. If someone puts
out a bid and you consistently counter just as soon as the other
manager closes his/her mouth, it can make the other manager a
bit timid. Another way to force the action is to jump bid (only
on players that you know will fetch a fair amount). When one manager
reluctantly puts out a $5 bid and you quickly put out a $10 bid,
it can be a bit intimidating.
While forcing the action can be a good thing, do not be too eager
to do it right away. Every auction is different, but it is usually
a good idea to let other managers set what the market is going
to be. Did Jonathan Taylor go for $50? OK, it might end up being
a soft running back market. Did Kupp go for $55? OK, it may not
be worth your time to invest in the high-end receiver market.
8. Use your free time (i.e. sitting out an auction
on a player you have no desire to roster) to monitor the roster
needs and (especially) the budgets of the other managers. Use
"the hammer" when you have it.
The first sentence should be self-explanatory. It really comes
into play in the middle part of your draft and definitely toward
the end of it. The second sentence is one of the best parts of
an auction: a player you desire is available and you have the
most money (and/or the highest max bid) remaining. For example,
Nyheim Hines has somehow escaped nomination through 150 picks
and no one else in the room can bid more than $7. As long as you
trust yourself not to pursue any other "eye candy,"
feel free to watch other owners continue to pass him by - making
him an even better value. If that doesn't sound like fun (it should),
then the moment you realize you have the "the hammer"
is about the time you should use it on the rest of the room.
9. Track what your league-mates are doing.
This ties in somewhat with No. 7. A next-level move for veteran
auction players is to chart who bids almost exclusively on players
he/she nominates. There was at least one player in the aforementioned
King's Classic who did this. Based on some of the conversations
I had with managers afterward, this "tell" allowed us
to bid him up. Even if only one or two managers in your league
are like this manager, it could potentially remove them from competing
against you for another player later in the draft.
10. For the love of all that is good, do not leave
money on the table in an auction!
There is a reason this piece of advice is in virtually every
auction draft piece. There is absolutely no reason not to spend
every dollar you have in an auction. One of the most egregious
examples I have witnessed was in a high-stakes auction two years
ago where an owner left $17 on the table. Using this draft as
an example, $17 would allow you to do any of the following: pay
for all but one of the quarterbacks, upgrade from James Conner
to Dalvin Cook or land DK Metcalf. DO NOT LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE!!!!
Pre-draft
My primary focus was leaving this draft with at least one of
my top six running backs and two top receivers, ideally one of
them being Justin Jefferson. If the price got too high on Jefferson,
then it was even more critical that I snag two receivers that
I believe are - at worst - low-end WR1s. I was also determined
not to overspend at quarterback (Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance were
targets of mine, as noted below). If I could get a bargain with
one of those quarterbacks, then I should be able to build some
decent depth at running back behind two good starters and a rock-solid
receiving corps, especially considering how deep the position
is.
The Draft
This year, I decided it would be a good idea if readers could
access the entire auction on a bid-by-bid
basis. For those degenerates who love to see an auction strategy
unfold, analyzing a draft this way can help provide some insight
into when decisions were made and perhaps why they were made.
Players with a blue highlight in the "F Pos"
column below are ones I would encourage auction drafters to target
in their auction drafts, as I did in mine. The key is picking
players to target from several different tiers and expected cost
valuations.
Below you will find the actual prices that secured a player’s
services in the aforementioned Huddle Auction (Hud $) and the
price I valued them at now (My $). A dash in the second column
means a player was not nominated. The green highlight
represents winning bids for FFToday. Finally, I will
follow each position group with some of my thoughts.
All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized
by “My $”. All of the players that were nominated
are included. I removed several players that are unlikely to go
in auctions in 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters or for other
common-sense reasons. It explains why there will be occasional
gaps - sometimes large gaps - between players in the "F Pos"
column.
Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1
Defense/Special Teams unit.
Quarterbacks
My $
Hud $
F Pos
Player
Tm
Age
SSI
18
23
QB1
Josh Allen
BUF
26
0.27
14
15
QB2
Justin Herbert
LAC
24
-1.95
12
6
QB3
Jalen Hurts
PHI
24
-2.45
12
3
QB4
Kyler Murray
ARI
25
-2.52
12
10
QB5
Lamar Jackson
BAL
25
-2.58
12
12
QB6
Patrick Mahomes
KC
26
-2.71
11
4
QB7
Dak Prescott
DAL
29
-2.90
9
3
QB8
Tom Brady
TB
45
-3.37
9
9
QB9
Trey Lance
SF
22
-3.42
8
5
QB10
Joe Burrow
CIN
25
-3.58
8
11
QB11
Russell Wilson
DEN
33
-3.77
7
2
QB13
Aaron Rodgers
GB
38
-3.82
7
2
QB12
Matthew Stafford
LAR
34
-3.85
5
4
QB14
Kirk Cousins
MIN
34
-4.71
2
2
QB15
Derek Carr
LV
31
-6.11
2
4
QB16
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
22
-6.35
2
1
QB17
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
24
-6.59
2
3
QB19
Justin Fields
CHI
34
-6.81
1
1
QB20
Matt Ryan
IND
37
-6.88
1
1
QB23
Jameis Winston
NO
28
-7.60
1
1
QB32
Deshaun Watson
CLE
26
-17.14
Observations:Josh Allen ($23) was the first quarterback
nominated about 30 minutes into the draft. Deshaun Watson ($1) and
Russell Wilson ($11) were the only other ones nominated in the first
hour. The point to be made here is that it can take a while before
managers feel the need to fill that spot.
Regarding Allen's price point, it is irresponsible for managers
to spend more than $20 on the position - specifically on one player.
Maybe he ends up becoming the league MVP in 2022, but the recent
history of this league suggests that even the elite quarterbacks
should top out in the high teens. Is Justin Herbert ($15) that
much of a step down from Allen? Is Patrick Mahomes ($12) only
half as valuable as Allen? It is equally hard to make the case
that Mahomes is two times as valuable as Jalen Hurts ($6), three
times as valuable as Dak Prescott ($4) or four times as valuable
as Tom Brady ($3). Every dollar in an auction is valuable, so
thinking about your buys in terms of how much better they are
than other players at their position should help keep you focused.
Strategy: Especially in leagues that award four
points per passing touchdown, I want my starting quarterback to
be a capable run threat. This means I want a floor of at least
300 rushing yards and a few scores on the ground. There are 15
quarterbacks I would be comfortable starting right now and perhaps
three more (Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence)
who could easily join them. In short, it is a deep position. Auction
league owners would do well to remember that; there's not much
of a reason to spend more than $10 at the position, if only because
it will almost certainly wind up costing you a potential starter
at another position later in the draft.
For example, would you rather have Allen and a $1 player or Hurts
and Michael Thomas/Darren Waller ($18)? If it helps, think about
a likely in-season trade for Allen. How much more than Hurts -
with an upgraded supporting cast, no less - will it take? It is
unlikely it would take Hurts plus a potential WR2 with WR1 upside
or an elite TE1 option.
Pounce on Allen or Herbert if they go incredibly cheap in the
low teens. Short of that, find a value you like. Especially with
the depth of the position, chances are your choice will keep you
competitive at worst. I did not intend to grab a second quarterback
(Prescott), but I was not going to let a player that has overall
QB1 upside in his range of outcomes go for $3. (I saw it happen
a few minutes earlier with Kyler Murray.) I have no problem employing
two quarterbacks who I have ranked inside my top seven at the
position for a lower price than four managers spent on their top
option.
Total spent at QB: $10
Running Backs
My $
Hud $
F Pos
Player
Tm
Age
SSI
54
59
RB1
Christian McCaffrey
CAR
26
9.94
50
52
RB2
Jonathan Taylor
IND
23
6.16
50
44
RB3
Dalvin Cook
MIN
27
6.10
50
35
RB4
Saquon Barkley
NYG
25
6.05
48
40
RB5
D'Andre Swift
DET
23
5.44
46
40
RB6
Austin Ekeler
LAC
27
4.82
45
39
RB7
Joe Mixon
CIN
26
4.62
42
36
RB8
Najee Harris
PIT
24
3.45
40
37
RB9
Aaron Jones
GB
27
2.76
38
34
RB10
Derrick Henry
TEN
28
2.11
36
28
RB11
Alvin Kamara
NO
27
1.60
34
29
RB12
Leonard Fournette
TB
27
1.19
33
29
RB13
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL
27
1.12
31
36
RB14
Javonte Williams
DEN
22
0.79
31
28
RB15
Travis Etienne
JAC
23
0.72
30
27
RB16
Nick Chubb
CLE
26
0.57
24
8
RB17
Cordarrelle Patterson
ATL
31
-0.18
24
20
RB18
AJ Dillon
GB
24
-0.44
24
22
RB19
Breece Hall
NYJ
21
-0.62
21
14
RB20
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
KC
23
-1.39
20
15
RB21
J.K. Dobbins
BAL
23
-1.54
19
16
RB22
David Montgomery
CHI
25
-1.68
19
11
RB23
Elijah Mitchell
SF
24
-1.79
19
20
RB24
Chase Edmonds
MIA
26
-1.89
16
28
RB25
James Conner
ARI
27
-2.38
15
13
RB26
Tony Pollard
DAL
25
-2.44
15
10
RB27
Damien Harris
NE
25
-2.92
14
9
RB28
Nyheim Hines
IND
25
-3.02
14
10
RB29
Dameon Pierce
HOU
22
-3.11
13
16
RB30
Josh Jacobs
LV
24
-3.22
12
8
RB31
Miles Sanders
PHI
25
-3.29
11
18
RB32
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE
24
-3.38
10
7
RB33
Melvin Gordon
DEN
29
-3.63
9
8
RB34
James Cook
BUF
22
-3.77
9
11
RB35
Kareem Hunt
CLE
27
-3.94
8
26
RB36
Cam Akers
LAR
23
-4.11
8
3
RB37
Michael Carter
NYJ
23
-4.17
8
10
RB38
Antonio Gibson
WAS
24
-4.41
7
3
RB39
Kenneth Gainwell
PHI
23
-4.50
7
9
RB40
Tyler Allgeier
ATL
22
-4.62
7
12
RB41
Brian Robinson Jr.
WAS
23
-4.62
6
4
RB42
James Robinson
JAC
24
-5.50
6
13
RB43
Devin Singletary
BUF
24
-5.53
6
8
RB44
Rachaad White
TB
23
-5.56
5
2
RB45
Jamaal Williams
DET
27
-5.72
4
-
RB46
Ameer Abdullah
LV
29
-6.79
4
5
RB47
Kenneth Walker
SEA
21
-6.79
4
5
RB48
Darrell Henderson
LAR
25
-6.94
4
15
RB49
Rashaad Penny
SEA
26
-7.06
3
2
RB50
J.D. McKissic
WAS
29
-7.11
3
4
RB51
Alexander Mattison
MIN
24
-7.18
3
3
RB52
Khalil Herbert
CHI
24
-7.24
3
-
RB53
Chris Evans
CIN
24
-7.47
3
3
RB54
Eno Benjamin
ARI
23
-7.55
3
5
RB55
Isaiah Spiller
LAC
21
-7.60
3
14
RB56
Isiah Pacheco
KC
23
-7.64
2
1
RB57
Gus Edwards
BAL
27
-8.48
2
5
RB58
Zamir White
LV
22
-8.71
2
3
RB59
D'Onta Foreman
CAR
26
-9.00
1
1
RB60
Jeff Wilson
SF
26
-9.43
1
1
RB61
Raheem Mostert
MIA
30
-9.46
1
-
RB62
Dontrell Hilliard
TEN
27
-9.55
1
1
RB63
Sony Michel
MIA
27
-9.65
1
-
RB64
Ty Montgomery
NE
29
-9.80
1
-
RB65
Jaylen Warren
PIT
23
-9.90
1
2
RB66
Mark Ingram
NO
32
-9.95
1
3
RB67
Hassan Haskins
TEN
22
-10.63
1
1
RB75
D'Ernest Johnson
CLE
26
-13.53
1
2
RB76
Marlon Mack
HOU
26
-13.89
1
1
RB77
Tyrion Davis-Price
SF
21
-15.77
1
-
RB78
Joshua Kelley
LAC
24
-16.10
1
1
RB79
Trey Sermon
SF
23
-16.95
1
1
N/A
Trestan Ebner
CHI
23
-17.18
1
1
N/A
Damien Williams
ATL
30
-17.74
1
2
N/A
Darrel Williams
ARI
27
-18.57
Observations: This was a position that was hard to get a
feel for with this group this year. Christian
McCaffrey ($59) and Jonathan
Taylor ($52) drew bids of $50-plus, but the next-highest bid
for a running back after that was Dalvin
Cook ($44). D'Andre
Swift and Austin
Ekeler ($40 apiece) were the only other backs to go for at least
$40. (By comparison, 12 backs fetched $40 bids in this league last
year.) Only 11 backs drew bids of at least $30. (Last year that
number was 18.) It was almost as if the league collectively agreed
it was more important to invest more into WR2s than starting options
at running back. Somewhat interestingly, managers spent a total
of $1,029 on the position this year versus $1,126 in 2021.
Needless to say, this development created incredible value for
the position. In this draft, my top 15 running backs went for
a combined $566. In my aforementioned 14-team King's Classic auction,
they went for a combined $560. Why is that notable? There is not
only more money to spend in a 14-team draft room, but the number
of teams also tends to increase the desperation of managers -
and thus, the winning bids - to secure an RB1.
The timing of nominations tends to have a dramatic effect on
some of the prices that certain players go for in an auction -
something that most veteran players know well. However, there
is no justification for Isiah Pacheco ($14) attracting a similar
bid to the one that secured David Montgomery ($16) or J.K. Dobbins
($15). Ditto for Pacheco going for the same price or more than
the following: teammate Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($14), Tony Pollard
($13), Devin Singletary ($13), Elijah Mitchell ($11), Damien Harris
($10) or Nyheim Hines ($9).
Pacheco was nominated about three hours into the draft. Hines
and Tyler Allgeier ($9) are two players who came up for bid after
Pacheco who have a more realistic path to every-week starter status.
Cam Akers ($26) is another bad investment. Not only does it appear
HC Sean McVay is open to splitting reps between Akers and Darrell Henderson, but the former also has history working against him.
(Although plenty of players have returned to action following
an Achilles tear, it could be argued that none of them ever returned
to their pre-injury form - certainly not the following season.)
Strategy: As much as running backs were overvalued
last season in this league, they were every bit as undervalued
this year. Virtually every running back in my RB3-15 range came
at a significant discount based on my valuation, which is based
mostly on my SSI score but also factors in how a league has typically
valued certain players at certain positions.
My typical strategy in this league is to land two surefire starters
at the position and acquire high-upside handcuffs with standalone
value if/when possible. My early bargains on Hurts ($6) and Barkley
($35) made it clear I could afford to get a bit greedier this
year. The result of my greed was landing four players - who have
no business being on the same fantasy team for a combined $97
- when I had them valued at $127.
Regardless of what most people think about Barkley ($35) and
his injury history, an overall RB1 finish is within his range
of outcomes in 2022. He is essentially a clearance version of
McCaffrey in auctions with similar upside. He is also one of the
few obvious bell-cows available who also boasts 70-catch upside.
With the recent buzz surrounding him, I did not expect to get
him for less than $40 and valued him at almost $50.
I have my doubts about Leonard Fournette ($29) holding down the
featured role in Tampa all season long with Rachaad White possibly
vying for a major role on passing downs, but he is an easy top-15
back if White doesn't take those duties from him. Even if he ends
up splitting passing down work with the rookie, Fournette's floor
should be as a high-end flex option at worst. Even though Michael Carter looms as a persistent threat to a consistent workload,
I think I was able to land Breece Hall ($22) at a good price.
While Carter is better than most give him credit for, there is
a chance Hall becomes the clear lead back before the second half
of the season.
Landing Elijah
Mitchell for $11 was another stunner. Veteran fantasy managers
are well aware that San Francisco has not had the same running
back lead his position group in scoring in consecutive years since
HC Kyle Shanahan took over. With that said, Mitchell is at worst
a viable every-week RB2 who has no business being on a fantasy
bench. Taking the injury discount on Gus
Edwards ($1) and stashing him on IR until he is ready only
adds to my embarrassment of riches at the position.
Total spent at RB: $98
Wide Receivers
My $
Hud $
F Pos
Player
Tm
Age
SSI
46
49
WR1
Justin Jefferson
MIN
23
7.74
42
35
WR2
Cooper Kupp
LAR
29
5.76
39
43
WR3
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
23
4.28
37
39
WR4
Stefon Diggs
BUF
28
3.31
37
40
WR5
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
22
3.04
36
35
WR6
Davante Adams
LV
29
2.98
31
31
WR7
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND
24
1.04
31
32
WR8
Tee Higgins
CIN
23
1.02
31
28
WR9
Tyreek Hill
MIA
28
0.94
30
29
WR10
Mike Evans
TB
29
0.71
29
22
WR11
A.J. Brown
PHI
25
0.58
29
20
WR12
Allen Robinson
LAR
29
0.43
28
26
WR13
Courtland Sutton
DEN
26
0.32
24
37
WR14
Deebo Samuel
SF
26
-0.54
24
35
WR15
Keenan Allen
LAC
30
-0.66
23
20
WR16
Brandin Cooks
HOU
28
-0.80
23
30
WR17
Mike Williams
LAC
27
-0.88
22
28
WR18
D.J. Moore
CAR
25
-0.92
22
20
WR19
Terry McLaurin
WAS
26
-0.96
22
21
WR20
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
23
-0.97
22
19
WR21
Diontae Johnson
PIT
26
-0.98
20
18
WR22
Michael Thomas
NO
29
-1.46
19
17
WR23
DK Metcalf
SEA
24
-1.67
17
14
WR24
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
22
-1.86
17
10
WR25
Hunter Renfrow
LV
26
-1.86
17
10
WR26
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
23
-1.90
16
15
WR27
Elijah Moore
NYJ
22
-2.05
16
13
WR28
Rashod Bateman
BAL
22
-2.09
16
12
WR29
Darnell Mooney
CHI
24
-2.12
16
12
WR30
Gabriel Davis
BUF
23
-2.17
15
11
WR31
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
24
-2.29
15
14
WR32
DeVonta Smith
PHI
23
-2.34
15
13
WR33
Marquise Brown
ARI
25
-2.34
14
15
WR34
Chris Godwin
TB
26
-2.74
14
12
WR35
Adam Thielen
MIN
32
-2.75
13
16
WR36
Christian Kirk
JAC
25
-3.04
12
8
WR37
Kadarius Toney
NYG
23
-3.25
12
5
WR38
Russell Gage
TB
26
-3.26
12
19
WR39
Allen Lazard
GB
26
-3.36
12
9
WR40
Drake London
ATL
21
-3.38
11
24
WR41
JuJu Smith-Schuster
KC
25
-3.41
10
6
WR42
DeAndre Hopkins
ARI
30
-3.64
9
6
WR43
Tyler Boyd
CIN
27
-3.71
9
10
WR44
Tyler Lockett
SEA
29
-3.87
9
12
WR45
Amari Cooper
CLE
28
-3.91
8
2
WR46
Marvin Jones
JAC
32
-4.11
7
10
WR47
Chris Olave
NO
22
-4.50
7
3
WR48
Jakobi Meyers
NE
25
-4.57
7
6
WR49
Robert Woods
TEN
30
-4.57
7
3
WR50
Nico Collins
HOU
23
-4.85
7
3
WR51
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
22
-4.95
6
4
WR52
DeVante Parker
NE
29
-5.10
6
2
WR53
Isaiah McKenzie
BUF
27
-5.17
6
3
WR54
Rondale Moore
ARI
22
-5.43
5
2
WR55
Chase Claypool
PIT
24
-5.76
5
7
WR56
George Pickens
PIT
21
-5.85
5
5
WR57
Romeo Doubs
GB
22
-5.87
4
5
WR58
Skyy Moore
KC
21
-5.89
4
4
WR59
Jahan Dotson
WAS
22
-6.07
4
4
WR60
Treylon Burks
TEN
22
-6.16
4
3
WR61
Julio Jones
TB
33
-6.26
4
3
WR62
D.J. Chark
DET
25
-6.35
3
1
WR63
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG
21
-6.40
3
-
WR64
Kyle Phillips
TEN
23
-6.40
3
5
WR65
Michael Gallup
DAL
26
-6.61
3
5
WR66
Jarvis Landry
NO
29
-6.62
3
2
WR67
K.J. Osborn
MIN
25
-6.62
2
-
WR68
Nelson Agholor
NE
29
-6.84
2
3
WR69
Josh Palmer
LAC
22
-6.86
2
-
WR70
Parris Campbell
IND
25
-7.02
2
2
WR71
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
KC
27
-7.13
1
1
WR72
Curtis Samuel
WAS
26
-7.26
1
1
WR73
Robbie Anderson
CAR
29
-7.29
1
-
WR74
Donovan Peoples-Jones
CLE
23
-7.58
1
-
WR75
Sterling Shepard
NYG
29
-8.23
1
4
WR79
Mecole Hardman
KC
24
-8.69
1
1
WR80
Kenny Golladay
NYG
28
-8.95
1
7
WR81
Alec Pierce
IND
22
-9.19
1
5
WR82
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
23
-9.27
1
1
WR88
Corey Davis
NYJ
29
-9.90
1
3
WR89
Christian Watson
GB
23
-9.92
1
4
WR91
Jameson Williams
DET
21
-10.09
1
1
WR102
Khalil Shakir
BUF
22
-12.70
1
1
WR103
Jamison Crowder
BUF
29
-14.22
1
1
WR104
Kendrick Bourne
NE
27
-14.27
Observations:Cooper Kupp ($35) was unquestionably the steal
of the draft. I tried multiple times to click the +1 button in the
final seconds of his auction, but it was not to be. I know a glitch
in the computer software was my reason for missing out on him at
that price, but I doubt what happened to me happened to the other
10 managers in the room. I am certainly not Kupp's biggest supporter
this season, but a player with his upside has to go for more than
that. (This would be an obvious example of when it is OK to enforce
prices.) Even if he experiences a 25 percent dip in production this
year, he will be worth the price he went for in this auction.
As I alluded to earlier, the reduction of spending at running
back showed up in a big way in the middle class at receiver. Last
year, 33 wideouts drew a bid of at least $10. This year, that
number was 41. A total of $961 was spent on the position in 2021.
This season, that number was $1,050. While the number of $30 bids
at the position was identical in both years (11), another big
difference between the years was the number of bids between $10-19:
14 in 2020 versus 20 in 2021.
Despite the amount of money managers sank into the middle class
at the position, there was still plenty of value picks made. Beginning
with A.J. Brown at $22 and ending with Elijah Moore at $15, there
are roughly 10 receivers from that group above that have a realistic
chance of finishing among the top 15-20 at the position. Even
in the $10-12 range, cases can be made that Darnell Mooney ($12),
Gabriel Davis ($12), Brandon Aiyuk ($11) and Jerry Jeudy ($10)
have top 20 upside.
Until I see the results with my own eyes at the end of the year,
I choose to believe Robert Woods and DeAndre Hopkins ($6 apiece)
will be their team's primary options. I understand Woods will
have to fight Treylon Burks for targets and Hopkins will miss
the first six games of the season. With that said, how likely
is it that Woods will see 100-plus targets? How likely is the
possibility Hopkins will be Kyler Murray's No. 1 option in the
passing game upon his return? As much as most of us like the upside
of rookies such as Chris Olave ($10) and George Pickens ($8),
what are the odds either one outperforms Woods over a full season?
Or Hopkins over the final 10-11 games?
Strategy: The going rate for the elite receivers
- and most leagues using this setup - is in the low-to-mid 40s.
It has been that way in this league for as long as I can remember.
Unless it is somewhat obvious a receiver has a clear path to the
kind of 160-plus targets (as I believe will be the case for Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb in 2022), it is probably best for most
fantasy managers to focus on getting one of the $30-plus receivers
as a WR1 and build a draft plan around that.
With that said, I would have bet a fair amount of money before
the draft that I would come away with either Jefferson ($49) or
Lamb ($43). I did not, as both went above my "my guy" rule of
bidding more than $2 over my valuation. It was not for a lack
of money; Jefferson was nominated about 15 minutes into the draft
and I had only spent $22 at that point (on A.J.
Brown). Lamb was a strong consideration as well, although
I had my starting threesome at receiver set at that point and
was coming off back-to-back winning bids on Fournette and Robinson.
For what it is worth, I went up to $40 on Lamb before bowing out.
Despite the slight disappointment of missing out on Jefferson
and Lamb (and having the software fail me on the Kupp bid), I
was pleased with getting two wideouts who I believe have WR1 upside
in Brown and Robinson for $1 less than Lamb. It would not surprise
me at all if both players pushed for 80-90 catches, 1,000-plus
yards and 10 touchdowns. Count me on Mooney as a WR3. While another
140 targets this season is not a given in a new offense, it is
hard to draw up a scenario in which Justin Fields doesn't throw
at least 35 times per game and Mooney isn't on the other end of
at least 25 percent of those throws. If both of those projections
look doable, then Mooney would be in line for roughly 149 targets.
Pairing up Russell Gage ($5) with Julio Jones ($3) was unintentional.
Nevertheless, I see only a ton of upside with having both. If
Chris Godwin's snaps are managed throughout the first 4-6 weeks
of the season, Gage will seem like a bargain. Of course, that
assumes he does not carve out a more substantial role - not unlike
what Antonio Brown did during his time as a Buc. Moreover, what
happens if Jones is not done yet? I discussed Woods earlier, so
I will wrap up with another player fantasy managers should not
allow to slip into the final rounds of a draft: Isaiah McKenzie
($2). Is there not at least a small chance he is the full-time
slot in this offense and a more dynamic option than Cole Beasley?
Jamison Crowder should be a factor, but do not let him be the
only reason you miss out on a player with 100-target upside.
Total spent at WR: $70
Tight Ends
My $
Hud $
F Pos
Player
Tm
Age
SSI
24
27
TE1
Travis Kelce
KC
32
2.02
22
23
TE2
Kyle Pitts
ATL
21
1.38
21
18
TE3
Darren Waller
LV
29
0.38
20
23
TE4
Mark Andrews
BAL
26
0.04
18
13
TE5
George Kittle
SF
28
-0.44
15
5
TE6
T.J. Hockenson
DET
25
-1.95
13
5
TE7
Dallas Goedert
PHI
31
-2.11
11
5
TE8
Zach Ertz
ARI
31
-2.69
9
15
TE9
Dalton Schultz
DAL
26
-3.18
7
4
TE10
Dawson Knox
BUF
25
-3.60
7
5
TE11
Cole Kmet
CHI
23
-3.66
6
3
TE12
Pat Freiermuth
PIT
23
-3.85
6
1
TE13
Irv Smith
MIN
24
-3.86
5
1
TE14
Tyler Higbee
LAR
29
-4.09
4
3
TE15
Albert Okwuegbunam
DEN
24
-4.14
4
4
TE16
David Njoku
CLE
26
-4.14
4
4
TE17
Austin Hooper
TEN
27
-4.32
3
1
TE18
Evan Engram
JAC
27
-4.46
2
2
TE19
Noah Fant
SEA
24
-4.70
2
-
TE20
Brevin Jordan
HOU
22
-4.86
1
1
TE21
Gerald Everett
LAC
28
-5.43
1
-
TE22
Hunter Henry
NE
27
-5.95
1
2
TE23
Mike Gesicki
MIA
26
-6.76
1
1
TE32
Robert Tonyan
GB
28
-8.97
Observations:Travis Kelce
($27), Kyle Pitts ($23) and Mark Andrews ($23) are generally recognized
as the top three tight end options this season. While each player
has elite upside, each player also comes with a potentially significant
fatal flaw. (Kelce will turn 33 years old soon, Pitts will be
going from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota and Andrews' production
spiked after Tyler Huntley took over for an injured Lamar Jackson
last year.) Those potential fatal flaws should theoretically drive
their prices down. It did not in this draft. It is one thing for
managers to overlook those potential shortcomings in a 14-team
draft, but none of those players went for less in this draft than
they did in the King's Classic.
This draft holds a similar script to ones in recent years in
that the top 5-6 options went for around $15 and the rest of them
fell in the $5 range. That is to be expected in most auctions.
While I understand some of the thought behind it, the industry
seems to have soured on T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz ($5 apiece). Their potential fatal flaws are probably more
likely to be realized than the group in the preceding paragraph,
but their upside is not being recognized in the same way as the
earlier group. Goedert may have the lowest upside of the second
group, but injuries figure to be about the only thing that will
keep Hockenson and Ertz under 60 catches and 600 yards.
Strategy:George Kittle ($13) has fallen out
of the elite group in the minds of fantasy managers this year.
While the fear of the unknown - namely his chemistry with Trey Lance - is justified, I do not think the change from Jimmy Garoppolo
to Lance alone is enough to justify him going $5 cheaper than
Darren Waller and at least $10 cheaper than the top three options.
Hockenson may have more competition for targets than he ever has
in Detroit, but is it out of the question that new OC Ben Johnson
relies somewhat heavily on the same player that made him look
so good in his two years as Hockenson's position coach?
I hoped that I could land Pitts at a reasonable price. When that
did not happen, my initial fallback plan was Waller ($18). My
next fallback plan was Ertz, but that was only because I did not
expect Kittle to go for $5 less than the four tight ends I have
ranked higher than him on my Big Board. I was even more surprised
when my TE6 (Hockenson) went for $8 less than Kittle about 25
minutes later. Especially with the questions at the top of this
position group this year, I will gladly take two very good options
and spread out my risk over one potentially elite option who may
succumb to his fatal flaw.
Total spent at TE: $18
Kickers
My $
Hud $
Player
Tm
2
2
Justin Tucker
BAL
2
2
Evan McPherson
CIN
2
1
Tyler Bass
BUF
1
1
Matt Gay
LAR
1
-
Jake Elliott
PHI
1
2
Daniel Carlson
LV
1
1
Brandon McManus
DEN
1
1
Dustin Hopkins
LAC
1
-
Greg Joseph
MIN
1
1
Ryan Succop
TB
1
-
Robbie Gould
SF
1
1
Harrison Butker
KC
1
-
Wil Lutz
NO
1
1
Nick Folk
NE
1
-
Matt Prater
ARI
1
-
Chris Boswell
PIT
1
1
Rodrigo Blankenship
IND
1
-
Brett Maher
DAL
1
1
Jason Sanders
MIA
Observations/strategy: Year after year, I look
for the same qualities in a kicker. I want someone with a strong
leg in a good offense. Additionally, I often target kickers who
play on teams with good or great defenses since coaches are more
apt to settle for field goals when they are confident in their defense.
Short of that, I look for a kicker on a team that I believe will
have a good offense but will bog down in the red zone because it
lacks a strong running attack. Evan McPherson ($2) has quickly emerged
as a kicker the Bengals trust from 50-60 yards. In leagues that
award extra points for field goal distance, getting a field goal
that is almost worth a touchdown on a semi-regular basis can tilt
a fantasy matchup or two in your favor.
Total spent at K: $2
Defense / ST
Actual $
My $
Team
SD
2
2
49ers
3
2
1
Eagles
1
1
1
Buccaneers
0
1
2
Packers
0
1
2
Bills
-3
1
1
Chargers
-5
1
2
Cowboys
-7
1
-
Browns
-7
1
-
Ravens
-7
1
1
Broncos
-8
1
1
Rams
-10
1
1
Saints
-10
1
1
Colts
-7
1
1
Titans
-14
Observations/strategy: Conventional wisdom says
no one should spend more than one dollar on defense. I believe that
is generally good advice, but I would also much rather spend an
extra dollar in the draft if it means I can lock up a potentially
elite one. (Why continually burn FAAB or waste waiver priority at
a position just because it is deemed overly volatile? Fantasy football
is about eliminating as many question marks from your lineup as
possible each week, not hoping some middling defense gets lucky
in what is perceived to be a soft matchup. You might think you have
the market cornered by getting whatever defense is going up against
the Bears this year, but I would be willing to bet at least 3-4
other managers are thinking the same thing.)
I also knew I had the luxury of spending an extra dollar or two
on players after getting what I considered a $15 discount on Barkley.
A major reason I like the 49ers this year is that they open the
season with the Bears and Seahawks. Other reasons to like them:
1) they should also have a ferocious pass rush and 2) they figure
to rely heavily on the run (and be good at it), which should limit
the number of possessions their opponents will have and keep their
defense fresh.
I usually begin each season in this league with at least four
bench players that probably need something to fall their way to
become a regular fantasy starter. I feel as if this team will
need minor tinkering at best throughout the season. This is the
deepest team at just about every position I can remember having
in this league and I do not feel as though I sacrificed much in
the way of elite upside to achieve that balance. In theory, I
should be able to survive at least one (and maybe even two) multi-week
injuries at running back and win in spite of them. If Barkley
stays healthy, Hall manages to realize the RB1 upside at some
point and Brown is every bit the alpha receiver he should be,
this should be a dominant team. The best part is that I do not
think any of those expectations are tall orders to fill.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.