Auction drafting is my favorite way to build a fantasy football
team. While the general idea of this format is to allow every
owner an equal opportunity to acquire players, it combines the
ability to value a player’s potential contribution with
managing a budget, all while testing a drafter’s patience.
Perhaps most importantly, it also tests the conviction a fantasy
owner has in certain players more than a snake draft ever will.
Opportunity cost is a huge consideration.
Furthermore, it rewards the prepared and punishes the unprepared.
In snake drafts, it is obvious to anyone using a reliable and
well-organized draft board when a player is slipping. In auctions,
owners need to be keenly aware of the available players and balance
that against their remaining funds. Owners must decide what players
they like the most and to what lengths they are willing to go
to secure their services, which is perhaps the best part of auctions
- along with the aforementioned fact that every owner has an equal
opportunity to land a player.
It has been said that you get whom your league-mates allow you
to get in snake drafts, while you get to decide exactly how you
want to build your team in auctions. I think that is a great way
to look at the difference between the two formats. It is also
why I believe auctions should be the standard way of drafting.
This coming season will mark the 15th year I have represented
FF Today in The
Huddle Expert Auction League. Over the first 14 seasons, I
have made the six-team playoff 13 times and advanced to the championship
game on eight occasions, winning it all four times - including
again last year. Suffice it to say my approach has proven
to be effective.
This year’s draft took place on Aug. 17, so keep that date
in mind as you review how I valued each player and the prices
they went for in this draft.
To help readers as much as possible, I will provide my updated
auction values for 12-team PPR leagues this weekend.
General Auction Considerations/Strategies
Below are some of the rules I live by in auctions and some of
the reasons I have enjoyed so much success in this format. There
are obviously more than 10 auction rules to observe, but this
should be a helpful list for most managers.
1. Use auction values customized to your league's
settings.
This may seem like an obvious statement, but you might be surprised
how many fantasy managers fail to do it. One size does not fit
all. For the veteran manager who wants to create his/her own (which
I recommend), this objective can be achieved by studying the values
of players in your league over the last year or two - especially
for those at the top of each position. When you can be confident
in the price ceiling for the top players at each position, it
makes valuing every other player below them much easier. I also
like to get a sense as to how many players at a particular position
go for a double-digit bid (i.e. six quarterbacks went for $10
or more, 15 running backs went for $20 or more, etc.). I set my
prices for players at what I believe should be their ceiling,
so I do not go over my valuation on a player unless there is a
specific objective I am trying to accomplish at that particular
moment. Perhaps my only exception to the last rule: I may go up
to $2 over on one of "my guys."
2. Find an easy way to identify "my guys."
Time is of the essence in most auctions, so fantasy managers
should have a quick and easy way to identify a player they are
targeting as they scroll up and down their lists. (I underlined
the players below that I specifically targeted on Aug. 17.) One
of the best features of an auction is that every fantasy manager
has the same opportunity to land each player - at least at the
beginning of the draft. If you want a certain player enough, odds
are you will probably get him.
3. Identify the players you want as the core of your
team.
This is slightly different from the preceding paragraph in that
we are talking about selecting a group of two or three foundation
pieces as opposed to a group of 30-40 players you would like to
have on the team.
4. Setting positional budgets is overrated.
While I can see how it might be helpful for the new auction player,
I have never set a pre-draft budget by position for any auction.
Much like snake drafting, fantasy owners should do whatever they
can to avoid backing themselves into a corner or creating more
obstacles for themselves. Some snake drafts shake out in a way
that it becomes obvious a receiver-heavy approach makes sense,
while others play out in a way where running backs should be the
focus. A similar thing can happen in auctions. What if your budget
for running back is 40 percent and half of the other owners' budgets
are 45-50 percent? Chances are your running back-centric focus
will need to become receiver-focused, making it one more thing
you need to adjust to on the fly. It makes more sense to figure
out before the draft how you want to build around Amon-Ra St.
Brown or Patrick Mahomes or whomever you deem as an acceptable
low-end RB1 if your initial RB-centric plan does not come to fruition.
5. Nominate with a purpose.
Nominating early in an auction draft should be about either securing
your foundation pieces or setting the expectation for a tier.
In other words, if I nominate Stefon Diggs and believe he is an
elite WR1, it should be because I want him or because I want to
know if I can trust my valuations for the rest of that tier. After
the first few rounds, I tend to nominate "buzzy" players
with an eye on trying to get my fellow league-mates to "chase
the cheese" with their virtual wallets. Other times, I will
target my nominations with an eye on getting a specific manager
to open up his/her checkbook on a player in hopes of eliminating
him/her from competition for another player at the same position
I want more.
6. It's OK to enforce prices, but do not become THE
league's price enforcer.
Just like snake drafts, auction drafting is about collecting
value. Do not allow the bidding to stop on Josh Allen at $11 (assuming
a $200 cap). Seize him at $12 and figure out how to reconfigure
your draft plan after that. With that said, your job is to build
the best team possible. Your job is not to enforce prices on every
player that is going too cheap.
7. Keep 'em guessing and do not be afraid to force
the action. At the same time, do not rush into action too quickly.
Many auction players equate the draft room to playing poker.
One of the keys to being a good poker player is never giving your
opponents a tell. Nominate players you want and ones you do not
(do the latter too much too early or else you might get stuck
with a few $1 players you do not want). Do the same with your
bidding. If you are consistently changing things up with your
nominations and your bidding, the other managers in your league
will not be able to get a read on you … which becomes important
if you play with the same crew year after year.
Do not hesitate to be the man or woman in the draft room who
knows what he or she wants. Force the action. If someone puts
out a bid and you consistently counter just as soon as the other
manager closes his/her mouth, it can make the other manager a
bit timid. Another way to force the action is to jump bid (only
on players that you know will fetch a fair amount). When a manager
puts out a $15 bid and you quickly bump it up to $25, it can be
a bit intimidating to some in the draft room.
While forcing the action can be a good thing, do not be too eager
to do it right away. Every auction is different, but it is usually
a good idea to let other managers set the market. Did Austin Ekeler
go for $40 for some reason? OK, it might end up being a soft running
back market. Did Justin Jefferson go for $60? OK, it may not be
worth your time to invest in the high-end receiver market.
8. Use your free time (i.e. sitting out an auction
on a player you have no desire to roster) to monitor the roster
needs and (especially) the budgets of the other managers. Also,
develop a sense of when to use "the hammer" when you
have it.
The first sentence should be self-explanatory. It really comes
into play in the middle part of your draft and definitely toward
the end of it. The second sentence is one of the best parts of
an auction: a player you desire is available and you have the
most money (and/or the highest max bid) remaining. For example,
Zay Flowers has somehow escaped nomination through 150 picks and
no one else in the room can bid more than $7. As long as you trust
yourself not to pursue any other eye candy, feel free to watch
other owners continue to pass him by - making him an even better
value. If that does not sound like fun (it should), then the moment
you realize you have "the hammer" is about the time
you should drop it on the rest of the room.
9. Track what your league-mates are doing.
This ties in somewhat with No. 7 and No. 8. A next-level move
for veteran auction players is to chart who bids almost exclusively
on players he/she nominates. Occasionally, a manager is guilty
of doing this. Even if only one or two managers do this in your
league's auction, it could remove them from competing against
you for another player later in the draft.
10. For the love of all that is good, do not leave
money on the table in an auction!
There is a reason this piece of advice is in virtually every
auction draft piece. There is absolutely no reason not to spend
every dollar you have in an auction. One of the most egregious
examples I have witnessed was in a high-stakes auction three years
ago where an owner left $17 on the table. Using this draft as
an example, $17 would allow you to do any of the following: get
Justin Herbert, upgrade from J.K. Dobbins to Ekeler or land Deebo
Samuel. DO NOT LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE!!!!
Pre-draft
My primary focus was leaving this draft with at least one anchor
running back and three top-20 receivers, ideally one of them being
Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp or Tyreek Hill. If
the price got too high on that foursome, then it would be even
more critical that I snag two receivers who I believe are - at
worst - low-end WR1s. I was also determined not to spend more
than $10 at quarterback. If I was able to get a bargain at quarterbacks,
then I should be able to build some decent depth at running back
behind two good starters and a rock-solid receiving corps. If
I really got lucky, Darren Waller would be available for less
than $10.
The Draft
As I did last year, I thought it would be a good idea if readers
could access the entire auction on a
bid-by-bid basis. For those degenerates who love to see an
auction strategy unfold, analyzing a draft this way can help provide
some insight into when and why certain decisions were made.
Once again, players whose names are underlined were my targets
entering this draft, which is a task I would encourage all auction
drafters to perform before their auction drafts. The most important
thing to do here is to pick players to target from several different
tiers and expected cost valuations.
Below you will find the actual prices that secured a player’s
services in the aforementioned Huddle Auction (Hud $) and the
price I valued them at (My $). A dash in the second column means
a player was not nominated. The green highlight in the price
columns represents winning bids for FF Today. I will follow
each position group with some of my thoughts.
All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized
by “My $”. All of the players that were nominated
are included. I removed several players who are unlikely to go
in auctions in 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters or for other
common-sense reasons.
Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1
Defense/Special Teams unit.
Quarterbacks
My $
Hud $
Name
Team
Age
20
19
Jalen Hurts
PHI
25
18
25
Josh Allen
BUF
27
16
12
Lamar Jackson
BAL
26
15
21
Patrick Mahomes
KC
27
14
15
Justin Herbert
LAC
25
13
12
Joe Burrow
CIN
26
12
9
Justin Fields
CHI
24
10
10
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
23
9
3
Deshaun Watson
CLE
27
9
3
Geno Smith
SEA
32
8
4
Anthony Richardson
IND
21
6
4
Kirk Cousins
MIN
35
4
1
Russell Wilson
DEN
34
4
2
Dak Prescott
DAL
30
3
3
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ
39
3
2
Daniel Jones
NYG
26
2
2
Kyler Murray
ARI
26
2
1
Derek Carr
NO
32
2
3
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
25
2
2
Jared Goff
DET
28
1
1
Brock Purdy
SF
23
1
1
Jordan Love
GB
24
Observations:Josh Allen ($25) was the first quarterback
nominated about five minutes into the draft. Patrick Mahomes ($21)
and Jalen Hurts ($19) were the only other ones nominated over the
next 45-plus minutes. The point here is that it will often take
a while before managers address this position.
Regarding Allen's price point, it is irresponsible for managers
to spend more than $20 on the position - specifically on one quarterback.
Maybe he will end up becoming the league MVP in 2023, but the
recent history of this league suggests that even the elite quarterbacks
should top out in the high teens. While I was lucky to land Hurts
for $6 last year, I am not sure I can wrap my mind around him
being twice as valuable as Justin Fields ($9) this season. Ditto
for Allen being worth twice as much as Lamar Jackson ($12) or
$10 more than Justin Herbert ($15). Every dollar in an auction
is valuable, so thinking about your buys in terms of how much
better they are than other players at their position should keep
you focused.
Strategy: Especially in leagues that award four
points per passing touchdown (as this one does), I want my starting
quarterback to be a capable run threat. This means I want a floor
of at least 300 rushing yards and a few scores on the ground.
There are 10 quarterbacks I would be comfortable starting right
now and perhaps as many as six more who could easily join them.
In short, it is a deep position. Auction league owners would do
well to remember that; there's not much of a reason to spend more
than $10 at the position, if only because it will almost certainly
wind up costing you a potential starter at another position later
in the draft.
For example, would you rather have Allen and a $1 player or Fields
and Deebo Samuel ($17)? If it helps, think about a likely in-season
trade for Allen. How much more than Fields - with an upgraded
supporting cast, no less - will it take? Fields and a decent bench
player might do it. It is unlikely that a manager would need to
include a potential WR2 with WR1 upside or an elite TE1 option.
Pounce on Herbert or Fields if they go incredibly cheap in the
single digits or low teens. Short of that, set your sights on
the value that is Geno Smith ($3). Fantasy managers have decided
that Smith will somehow support at least two - if not three -
top 36 receivers but fail to post QB1 numbers. Especially with
the depth of the position, chances are your choice will keep you
competitive at worst. I did not intend to grab a second quarterback
(Russell Wilson), but I could not resist spending $1 for a player
I have ranked inside my top 15 signal-callers.
Total spent at QB: $10
Running Backs
My $
Hud $
Name
Team
Age
52
48
Christian McCaffrey
SF
27
48
42
Austin Ekeler
LAC
28
47
46
Nick Chubb
CLE
27
45
37
Bijan Robinson
ATL
21
41
38
Tony Pollard
DAL
26
41
41
Saquon Barkley
NYG
26
39
38
Derrick Henry
TEN
29
37
28
Jonathan Taylor
IND
24
35
28
Joe Mixon
CIN
27
35
31
Aaron Jones
GB
28
35
35
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE
25
33
24
Dameon Pierce
HOU
23
33
34
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET
21
32
18
Breece Hall
NYJ
22
30
28
Najee Harris
PIT
25
26
15
David Montgomery
DET
26
26
21
J.K. Dobbins
BAL
24
25
18
Kenneth Walker III
SEA
22
23
17
Miles Sanders
CAR
26
22
25
Travis Etienne Jr.
JAC
24
21
17
James Cook
BUF
23
21
15
Cam Akers
LAR
24
20
14
James Conner
ARI
28
20
17
Rachaad White
TB
24
19
28
Alexander Mattison
MIN
25
18
14
Alvin Kamara
NO
28
17
24
Josh Jacobs
LV
25
15
12
Antonio Gibson
WAS
25
14
17
Javonte Williams
DEN
23
14
7
Devon Achane
MIA
21
13
10
Brian Robinson Jr.
WAS
24
13
7
D'Andre Swift
PHI
24
12
12
Isiah Pacheco
KC
23
11
3
Samaje Perine
DEN
27
11
5
Zach Charbonnet
SEA
22
9
7
Tank Bigsby
JAC
21
9
4
AJ Dillon
GB
25
9
13
Khalil Herbert
CHI
25
8
5
Rashaad Penny
PHI
27
8
6
Dalvin Cook
NYJ
28
8
4
Jeff Wilson
MIA
27
7
2
Jerome Ford
CLE
23
7
3
Tyjae Spears
TEN
22
6
2
Damien Harris
BUF
26
6
2
Jaylen Warren
PIT
24
5
1
Tyler Allgeier
ATL
23
5
2
D'Onta Foreman
CHI
27
5
1
Elijah Mitchell
SF
25
5
5
Devin Singletary
HOU
25
4
13
Jerick McKinnon
KC
31
4
3
Jamaal Williams
NO
28
4
4
Deuce Vaughn
DAL
21
4
1
Raheem Mostert
MIA
31
4
4
Zamir White
LV
23
4
4
Roschon Johnson
CHI
22
3
-
Sean Tucker
TB
21
3
-
Kendre Miller
NO
21
3
3
Deneric Prince
KC
23
3
1
Joshua Kelley
LAC
25
3
-
Gus Edwards
BAL
28
3
7
Kenneth Gainwell
PHI
24
3
1
Ty Chandler
MIN
25
2
-
Cordarrelle Patterson
ATL
32
2
-
Raheem Blackshear
CAR
25
2
-
Jordan Mason
SF
24
2
-
Chuba Hubbard
CAR
24
2
-
Evan Hull
IND
22
2
-
Kyren Williams
LAR
22
1
1
Zach Evans
LAR
22
1
-
Keaontay Ingram
ARI
23
1
-
Chase Edmonds
TB
27
1
-
Malik Davis
DAL
24
1
1
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
TB
26
1
4
Ezekiel Elliott
NE
28
1
1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
KC
24
Observations: For one of the few times in the decade-plus
I have been in this league, no back attracted a $50 bid. Just seven
received a bid of more than $35 and only 10 drew a bid in the 30s.
(Last year, 11 backs drew bids of at least $35 and 16 attracted
bids of at least $30.) Taken one step further, 65 running backs
were drafted and only $922 was spent at the position. In 2022, that
number was $1,029. The year before, it was $1,126.
The timing of nominations tends to have a dramatic effect on
some of the prices that certain players go for in an auction -
something that most veteran players know well. With that said,
I cannot defend Khalil Herbert ($13) going for one dollar less
than Alvin Kamara or James Conner ($14) or two dollars less than
David Montgomery ($15). I also cannot defend Josh Jacobs going
for $24 and especially Alexander Mattison going for $28. Mattison
going for the same price as Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor is pure
insanity.
Some of the values I liked more than three hours into the draft
were Samaje Perine ($3), Tyjae Spears ($3), Zamir White ($4),
Jaylen Warren ($2) and Tyler Allgeier ($1). Three of them have
legitimate paths to 100-plus carries even if nothing happens to
the backs in front of them on the depth chart. All of them could
be weekly starters in fantasy if they get a chance to carry the
load for a game or more.
Strategy: Even though running backs will continue
to boast the most fantasy upside for the foreseeable future, it
simply no longer makes sense to drop at least 40 percent of your
auction money on the position. Look no further than how running
backs are compensated now and how coaches almost haphazardly assign
playing time to the position - especially if the top back fumbles
- as to why it does not make sense to spend big. There are a handful
of backs seemingly locked into heavy workloads. Try to get the
best deal you can on at least one of them and lean on other positions
to carry your team. Round out your running back group with a few
high-upside handcuffs.
Even though I accounted for a dip in running back values this
season, there was still a considerable difference between what
I expected them to bring and what they ended up going for in this
draft. I hoped to land two low-cost volume plays at running back
(hopefully three) and avoid the glut of average receivers that
seems to be a hallmark of my teams in this league. (For example,
I left last year's draft with A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Russell Gage, Robert Woods, Isaiah McKenzie and Julio
Jones.)
My typical strategy in this league is to land two surefire starters
at the position and acquire high-upside handcuffs with standalone
value if/when possible. I expected Montgomery to come cheap (maybe
not $15 cheap) and was fully prepared to lean on him as my RB2.
Much to my surprise, he will begin the season as my flex behind
a pair of backs in Rhamondre Stevenson ($35) and Dameon Pierce
($24) who I believe are low-end RB1s.
While it may be true that Ezekiel Elliott's presence removes
some of the luster from Stevenson, I think Zeke only takes on
some of the role Damien Harris played last year once it became
clear that Stevenson was the preferred option in October. The
fact Stevenson will have a professional play-caller in Bill O'Brien
this year only helps his cause.
Regarding Pierce, I think he will prove to be one of the most
mispriced players in fantasy this year. He was one of the best
yards-after-contact backs in the league in a bad offense as a
rookie. In 2023, he has a better supporting cast - including a
legitimate offensive line. Devin Singletary will probably see
about 30 percent of the backfield work, but I would be surprised
if it is much more than that. Considering my investment in Pierce,
I only need him to be a mid-range RB2.
I already know I will be overweight on Montgomery this year.
No one expects him to repeat Jamaal Williams' 17 touchdowns from
last year, but he seems like one of the more obvious 250-touch
backs available in a great offense that gave its backs 509 touches
last season. Jahmyr Gibbs is highly unlikely to handle more than
225 - he never handled more than 195 in college.
As far as my bench is concerned, I want "one-away"
backs - decent or good standalone options that usually only need
one thing to happen to the starter to pay off in a huge way. I
was thrilled to land a pair of high-upside handcuffs in Warren
and Elijah Mitchell ($1). The beauty of both players is that each
one could and should have some standalone value, but they likely
possess RB1 upside if Najee Harris and/or Christian McCaffrey
miss time. I went a little bit lighter at running back than I
usually do in this draft, but one of the reasons I did so is because
I have faith in the five I selected.
Total spent at RB: $77
Wide Receivers
My $
Hud $
Name
Team
Age
53
50
Justin Jefferson
MIN
24
50
50
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
23
50
40
Cooper Kupp
LAR
30
49
44
Tyreek Hill
MIA
29
43
38
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
24
42
36
Davante Adams
LV
30
40
40
Stefon Diggs
BUF
29
40
35
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
23
39
38
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
23
38
44
A.J. Brown
PHI
26
38
31
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
24
35
34
Chris Olave
NO
23
35
30
Calvin Ridley
JAC
28
32
30
DeVonta Smith
PHI
24
32
27
Keenan Allen
LAC
31
31
24
Tee Higgins
CIN
24
31
20
DK Metcalf
SEA
25
30
17
Terry McLaurin
WAS
27
29
21
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
25
29
12
Tyler Lockett
SEA
30
28
22
DJ Moore
CHI
26
25
17
Deebo Samuel
SF
27
24
25
Amari Cooper
CLE
29
24
24
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
24
23
7
DeAndre Hopkins
TEN
31
22
18
Drake London
ATL
22
22
9
Mike Williams
LAC
28
21
18
Diontae Johnson
PIT
27
21
12
Courtland Sutton
DEN
27
21
12
Christian Kirk
JAC
26
21
9
Elijah Moore
CLE
23
21
5
Gabe Davis
BUF
24
20
20
Mike Evans
TB
30
20
14
Chris Godwin
TB
27
19
18
Christian Watson
GB
24
19
4
Treylon Burks
TEN
23
17
13
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA
21
16
12
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND
25
15
10
George Pickens
PIT
22
14
10
Jordan Addison
MIN
21
12
11
Kadarius Toney
KC
24
12
10
Brandin Cooks
DAL
29
11
17
Jahan Dotson
WAS
23
11
11
Marquise Brown
ARI
26
11
9
JuJu Smith-Schuster
NE
26
9
15
Zay Flowers
BAL
22
9
9
Michael Thomas
NO
30
9
1
DeVante Parker
NE
30
8
7
Jakobi Meyers
LV
26
8
6
Skyy Moore
KC
22
7
7
Romeo Doubs
GB
23
7
4
Nico Collins
HOU
24
7
4
Allen Lazard
NYJ
27
6
6
Quentin Johnston
LAC
21
5
2
Rashod Bateman
BAL
23
4
1
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG
24
4
3
Michael Gallup
DAL
27
4
1
Marvin Mims
DEN
21
4
1
Jonathan Mingo
CAR
22
3
5
Odell Beckham Jr.
BAL
30
3
3
Darnell Mooney
CHI
25
3
3
Adam Thielen
CAR
33
3
2
Tyler Boyd
CIN
28
3
1
Alec Pierce
IND
23
3
1
Parris Campbell
NYG
26
2
9
Jameson Williams
DET
22
2
4
Van Jefferson
LAR
27
2
3
D.J. Chark
CAR
26
2
2
Curtis Samuel
WAS
27
2
-
Hunter Renfrow
LV
27
1
4
Zay Jones
JAC
28
1
4
K.J. Osborn
MIN
26
1
3
Darius Slayton
NYG
26
1
3
Jalin Hyatt
NYG
21
1
1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
KC
28
1
1
Donovan Peoples-Jones
CLE
24
1
1
Tank Dell
HOU
23
1
1
Rashid Shaheed
NO
24
1
1
Rondale Moore
ARI
23
1
1
Allen Robinson II
PIT
29
1
1
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG
22
1
1
Justyn Ross
KC
23
1
-
Robert Woods
HOU
31
1
-
Puka Nacua
LAR
23
1
-
Mecole Hardman
NYJ
25
1
-
John Metchie III
HOU
23
1
-
Rashee Rice
KC
23
1
-
Josh Downs
IND
22
1
-
Jayden Reed
GB
23
1
-
Michael Wilson
ARI
23
1
-
Marvin Jones Jr.
DET
33
1
-
Chase Claypool
CHI
25
1
-
Trey Palmer
TB
27
1
-
Richie James
KC
27
Observations: One of my favorite things to do with this article
in recent years is record the positional spending at running back
and receiver across the league. In 2021, the number at receiver
is $961. In 2022, it increased to $1,050. This year, it was $1,120.
More receivers are getting drafted every year (81 in this draft)
and more are coming with high price tags.
In each of the previous two drafts, 11 receivers received bids
of at least $30. This year, that number was 14. In 2021, 33 receivers
drew a bid of at least $10. That number increased to 41 in 2022
and leveled off at 40 in this draft. Last but not least, 14 receivers
attracted a bid between $10-19 in 2021. That number shot up to
20 in 2022 and 18 in 2023.
Despite the money being sunk into the receiver position, it is
not hard to spot some of the incredible values that can still
be had. I may not be the highest on Drake London or Christian Watson this year, but both are solid buys at $18 apiece. Diontae Johnson ($18) is one season removed from a top-10 finish. Terry McLaurin ($17) is about as sure of a bet for 70 catches and 1,000
yards as any receiver. Deebo Samuel ($17) was another incredible
value. Tyler Lockett ($12) continues to be a screaming bargain,
and it should come as no surprise if the same ends up being said
about Courtland Sutton ($12). Jordan Addison ($10), Mike Williams
($9) and Elijah Moore ($9) should also prove to be well worth
the investments their managers made.
The draft room must have collectively fallen asleep on DeAndre Hopkins ($7). I comically could not get my mouse to land on the
+1 button in time, but I am sure that excuse was not the reason
the other 10 managers missed out on him.
Strategy: With so many people advocating for
a receiver-heavy foundation nowadays, it is getting harder to
build a team around two top-10 wideouts. Nevertheless, my goal
heading into this draft was to do that. The names of the players
were less important to me than having at least two stud receivers
and building around them. My dream pairing was the least expensive
top-four wideout and Garrett Wilson. Little did I expect Kupp
($40) and Wilson ($35) to go for $15 cheaper than I valued them.
The way I approached this draft is the way I recommend others
to do this year. Get the two best bargains inside the top 10 receivers
(as I feel I did). The savings should allow you to land a top-six
tight end (preferably Darren Waller or Dallas Goedert if Mark Andrews goes for too much) and build a strong running back room.
Securing a top 6-8 option at quarterback should also be a goal
if you can accomplish the aforementioned tasks, but doing so should
be considered more of a luxury than a necessity given the relative
depth at that position.
It sounds ridiculous to build part of a draft plan around a player
who is being considered a WR3 this summer, but the lack of respect
Lockett is receiving is getting to a point where it may not be
a bad idea. In terms of his auction price in this draft, he was
priced as a back-end WR3 as the overall WR32. As you can tell
from my valuation of him, I got him $17 cheaper than I should
have. That is one more thing I want to mention about auctions.
Receiving a discount of that degree opens the door to build a
more complete roster. Without the discount I received on Lockett,
there is no way I could have landed Jaxon
Smith-Njigba ($13) and Dameon
Pierce. Every substantial discount you receive in an auction
should immediately make you think about how he/she can apply that
savings to another position of need.
Considering all the hype he has received this offseason, I was
shocked that I landed Smith-Njigba at such a reasonable price.
I am hoping for occasional WR3 production, but he also serves
as a bit of an insurance policy should Lockett surprisingly decline
or miss time due to injury. I was pleased to round out my receiving
corps with three $1 wideouts at the level of Parris Campbell,
Isaiah Hodgins and Marvin Mims. While each player comes with a
low enough floor that they could be on the waiver wire by Week
3, all of them have obvious upside. Campbell's fit in a small-ball
Giants' offense could lead to him being a PPR dynamo. Hodgins
appeared to be Daniel Jones' favorite receiver at the end of last
season and is the only true X receiver New York has. Mims was
the first draft pick of the Sean Payton era in Denver, and it
would come as no surprise if he ends up playing the Tim Patrick
role in the Broncos' offense.
Total spent at WR: $103
Tight Ends
My $
Hud $
Name
Team
Age
30
37
Travis Kelce
KC
33
24
26
Mark Andrews
BAL
27
20
7
Darren Waller
NYG
30
16
16
T.J. Hockenson
MIN
26
15
5
Evan Engram
JAC
28
14
12
Dallas Goedert
PHI
28
12
7
David Njoku
CLE
27
11
10
George Kittle
SF
29
10
11
Kyle Pitts
ATL
22
8
-
Gerald Everett
LAC
29
7
3
Juwan Johnson
NO
26
7
3
Tyler Higbee
LAR
30
6
1
Jake Ferguson
DAL
24
6
4
Dalton Kincaid
BUF
23
6
5
Dalton Schultz
HOU
27
5
4
Pat Freiermuth
PIT
24
2
2
Greg Dulcich
DEN
23
2
2
Hunter Henry
NE
28
2
3
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TEN
23
2
-
Tyler Conklin
NYJ
28
2
1
Cole Kmet
CHI
24
2
2
Luke Musgrave
GB
22
2
1
Sam LaPorta
DET
22
2
-
Jelani Woods
IND
24
1
1
Irv Smith Jr.
CIN
25
1
-
Hayden Hurst
CAR
29
1
-
Cade Otton
TB
24
1
-
Mike Gesicki
NE
27
1
-
Dawson Knox
BUF
26
1
-
Trey McBride
ARI
23
1
-
Michael Mayer
LV
22
1
-
Noah Fant
SEA
25
1
1
Taysom Hill
NO
33
1
-
Isaiah Likely
BAL
23
Observations:Travis Kelce ($37) may have been worth $11
more than any other tight end last year, but it sure feels as
though managers are paying more for last year's results than what
his value will be relative to other tight ends this year. Mark Andrews ($26) was going toe-to-toe with him last season through
six weeks before injuries - his own as well as Lamar Jackson's
- led to a second-half fade. Many may consider Darren Waller an
injury risk, but a healthy year from him would likely give Kelce
two challengers to the overall TE1 throne. That in and of itself
means Kelce should not be going for $37 in an auction.
This draft followed a similar script to ones in recent years
in that the top 5-6 options went for around $10 or more and the
rest of them fell in the $5 range. Waller had no business going
for just $7, but my ability to secure him was capped at $4 by
my Dameon Pierce win about five picks earlier. I do not expect
missing out on Waller to haunt me, but the inability to pursue
further stung. I was stunned to learn after the draft that 23
tight ends were selected and Gerald Everett was not among them.
Readers should not expect that to happen in their drafts.
Strategy: I intended to do whatever it took
to land Andrews or Waller. My worst-case scenario was settling
for Juwan Johnson ($3). Not much went wrong for me in this draft,
but the plan was not to settle for Pat Freiermuth ($4) and Luke Musgrave ($2). Yet, I'm OK with it - especially after finding
out my current TE11 slipped through the cracks. (I will be placing
a sizeable FAAB bid on Everett just to make sure I am in good
shape at the position.)
Freiermuth will be a big part of whatever second-year leap Kenny
Pickett makes - regardless of how well rookie Darnell Washington
plays - and should finish as a top-10 option. Musgrave is an incredibly
fluid rookie that the Packers expect to feature right away. The
only reason I have him ranked as low as I do is that he struggled
to stay healthy for any length of time in college.
My strategy at tight end this year is simple and the same advice
I would offer to managers in snake drafts: invest in Kelce, Andrews,
Waller and Goedert or wait on the likes of Juwan Johnson, Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid.
Total spent at TE: $6
Kickers
My $
Hud $
Player
Tm
2
2
Justin Tucker
BAL
1
1
Harrison Butker
KC
1
1
Dustin Hopkins
LAC
1
1
Daniel Carlson
LV
1
1
Tyler Bass
BUF
1
1
Brett Maher
DEN
1
1
Younghoe Koo
ATL
1
1
Jake Moody
SF
1
1
Jake Elliott
PHI
1
1
Brandon McManus
JAC
1
1
Cameron Dicker
LAC
1
1
Evan McPherson
CIN
Observations/strategy: Year after year, I look
for the same qualities in a kicker. I want someone with a strong
leg in a good offense. Additionally, I often target kickers who
play on teams with good or great defenses since coaches are more
apt to settle for field goals when they are confident in their defense.
Short of that, I look for a kicker on a team that I believe will
have a good offense but will bog down in the red zone because it
lacks a strong running attack. I have yet to rank kickers, but I
am sure Tyler Bass ($1) will end up inside my top five. He has a
huge and accurate leg, which means something in any league such
as this one where long kicks are rewarded more (i.e. a 55-yard field
goal is worth 5.5 points). Being able to count on a steady dose
of at least three extra points and 1-2 field goals every week is
a nice feeling when it comes to the uncertainty that usually exists
with fantasy kickers.
Total spent at K: $1
Defense / ST
My $
Hud $
Team
3
3
Cowboys
3
3
Eagles
2
2
49ers
1
1
Rams
1
1
Saints
1
1
Ravens
1
2
Bills
1
1
Bengals
1
2
Broncos
1
2
Jaguars
1
1
Dolphins
1
1
Patriots
1
1
Jets
Observations/strategy: Conventional wisdom says
no one should spend more than one dollar on defense. I believe that
is generally good advice, but I would also much rather spend an
extra dollar or two in a draft if it means I can lock up a potentially
elite one. (Why continually burn FAAB or waste waiver priority at
a position just because it is deemed overly volatile?) Fantasy football
is about eliminating as many question marks from your lineup as
possible each week, not hoping some middling defense gets lucky
in what is perceived to be a soft matchup. You might think your
yearlong plan of picking up whatever defense is facing the Cardinals
that week is brilliant, but I would be willing to bet at least 3-4
other managers are thinking the same thing.
The Cowboys do not have an overly favorable schedule, but my
decision to draft them is largely based on how ridiculously talented
they are on defense this year. The addition of Stephon Gilmore
gives Dallas a lockdown corner and the addition of first-round
pick DL Mazi Smith should shore up what was a leaky run defense.
The Cowboys already boast one of the deepest group of pass rushers
of any team in the league and have a ball-hawk in Trevon Diggs
opposite Gilmore. Add in the return threat of KaVontae Turpin
and the Dallas D/ST has a chance to be special in 2023.
For the first time in as long as I can remember in this league,
the strength of this team is at receiver. In Kupp, Wilson and
Lockett, I have three receivers I believe will finish inside the
top 20 at their position. They should be able to go toe-to-toe
with any group of receivers my team faces week after week. The
running back group is how I envisioned this year's team unfolding
pre-draft. Stevenson, Pierce and Montgomery are all very good
bets to see well over 200 touches. Montgomery is a very good bet
for at least 10 TDs, while Stevenson should finish with more than
50 catches. Pierce represents a bit of a middle ground of both
backs.
I did not expect to land a quarterback with overall QB1 upside,
nor did I expect to get one for less than $10. Fields has already
proven his ability to produce fantasy points with little at receiver.
Now, he has a legitimate receiving corps and an alpha receiver
to boot. Freiermuth is not a bad option by any stretch, but tight
end has to be considered the weakest part of this team. If I am
fortunate enough to add Gerald Everett in a couple of weeks, I
feel good about my chances of managing that position until one
of the three (Everett, Freiermuth and Musgrave) separates himself
from the other two. The age at receiver is a slight concern, but
there also has been no hint of Kupp or Lockett falling off. Assuming
they hold up and perform at the level we are accustomed to, this
is a rock-solid team that I expect to challenge for yet another
title.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.