In this space last week,
I provided readers with the week-by-week target share breakdown
to demonstrate and illustrate how consistently certain running backs,
wide receivers and tight ends are a key part of the offense. This
week, the plan is to focus entirely on running backs and break down
how consistently they are highly involved in the running and passing
game.
There are two easy ways to do that - via how many of their team's
rushing attempts they are getting (carry share) and how many of
their team's targets they are getting (target share). Looking
at things from this perspective should give us a clear vision
of which backs are being featured, which ones are lead backs and
which ones are likely on the wrong side of a committee. If a third
to a half of winning consistently and fantasy football is about
setting realistic expectations, this should help us do that.
Much like last week, I thought it would be more beneficial to
approach carry share and target share on a game-to-game basis
than a year-to-date perspective. If we can set realistic expectations
in regards to how much volume we can expect from a running back
each week, we can have more confidence in playing our running
backs regardless of the matchup. Similarly, this can also be a
helpful tool to see if a player is trending up or down as a runner
or receiver.
Most of the running backs below have scored at least 25 fantasy
points this season, which is admittedly a relatively low bar to
set. However, I think it is important to do that to account for
injuries and early byes. For the few that have not scored 25 points
yet, it is because I expect them to see an increased role in their
offense in the coming weeks.
Green - Carry share of at
least 70 percent Blue - Carry share between 60 and 69.9 percent White - Carry share between 50 and 59.9 percent Yellow - Carry share between 40 and 49.9 percent Orange - Carry share less than 40 Black - Did not play/bye week
That is the list. It is not hard to understand why Williams
ranks third in overall PPR scoring at running back through
five weeks despite averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. It
also helps the cause he has scored seven of the team's nine
offensive touchdowns on the season. His usage - which is not
uncommon for running backs under HC Sean McVay - has barely
changed from last season (his 19 carries per game is the same
exact average he had last season), but his efficiency has
dropped off in a big way (from 5.0 YPC in 2023). That part
is not surprising given the circumstances, as Cooper Kupp,
Puka Nacua and two Week 1 starters on the offensive line have
missed significant time. This is also a great time to remind
readers why I was so high on Blake Corum in August. There
is a significant workload waiting for him if Williams, who
has yet to play more than 12 games in two NFL seasons, was
to miss significant time for the third time in as many NFL
seasons.
Once the world learned what Christian McCaffrey (Achilles
tendinitis) was dealing with in Week 1, it seemed reasonable
to expect Mason to handle a massive workload. While his workload
has been very good every week, it is at least notable to point
out he is averaging 26 carries in the team's two wins and
17.7 in its three losses.
There is not much reason to spend much time on Kamara here.
Fantasy managers should probably expect more white and yellow
boxes in the future if/when Kendre Miller (hamstring) is ready
to roll, but that process could take up to another month and
assumes Miller will stay healthy. As much as HC Dennis Allen
has said publicly about Miller's lack of durability, he needs
the second-year back to add a level of physicality and explosiveness
that Kamara cannot very often anymore.
Charbonnet's presence on this list was a surprise at first,
but we must remember Kenneth Walker missed Weeks 2-3. Since
it would appear OC Ryan Grubb does not seem to have a lot
of trust in Kenny McIntosh, Charbonnet was trusted to be the
man over that stretch. Charbonnet's presence in this section
serves more as a reminder of what could be waiting for Walker
if the Seahawks consistently stick to the run.
Henry, Hall, Robinson and Taylor are all surprisingly in
this section and not one of the first two. Circumstances mostly
outside of their control have contributed to that. If I had
lowered the green requirement to 65 percent, Taylor would
be 4-for-4 with exceptional carry shares.
Conner's workload has not been quite elite, but five straight
games with a carry share over 50 percent is probably a lot
better than most expected when he typically fell into the
fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts. His current workload
is probably about what it should be for a player with his
running style and injury history.
It does not bode well for Cook that he is not practicing
to begin the Week 6 workweek after his first 20-carry game
of the season. It is at least worth noting his yards per carry
fell off in a big way last season after the first 20-plus
carry game of his NFL career in Week 15 last season.
Jacobs' carry share jumped back into the 60-percent range
in Week 5 after consecutive games of somewhat disappointing
workloads. As is often the case in the NFL, there was a good
reason for the dip in Weeks 3-4. Week 3 was the week following
his 32-carry effort in Malik Willis' first start and Week
4 was the game in which the Packers fell behind 28-0 in Minnesota.
So long as the Packers keep games close or live in positive
game script (which they should most weeks), Jacobs should
end up being the low-end RB1/high-end RB2 he was drafted to
be.
Perhaps the biggest surprises in this section are Dobbins
and Singletary. Dobbins' usage as a runner has not been much
different from Cook's, although it is now at a Conner-like
level following his strong start. The biggest issue for him
is the same one I noted earlier with Kyren Williams. There
is little evidence to believe he can stay on the field for
a prolonged stretch given his injury history. Fantasy managers
- and specifically Dobbins' managers - who were afforded the
luxury of early bye weeks for their running backs are encouraged
to stash Kimani Vidal. Much like Blake Corum, it would be
shocking if Vidal fails to handle Dobbins' workload for at
least a handful of games in 2024.
No Greens But At Least Three Blues (only names not included
above)
Hubbard was widely expected to be the featured back in Carolina
while Jonathon Brooks (knee) finished his recovery from ACL surgery.
What was not expected was how well he would play, especially once
the Panthers started receiving some competent play at quarterback
in Week 3. The last three games suggest Hubbard will be the man
for as long as it takes Brooks (and the team) to feel confident
in his knee and the veteran's workload in Weeks 1-2 was a product
of how uncompetitive Carolina was.
No Greens But At Least Two Blues (only names not included above)
It is shocking to see Barkley with no greens until we consider
he is losing 10.5 carries/game to Jalen Hurts. Thankfully, Barkley
has been so efficient with his work (6.0 YPC) that it has not
mattered. It also does not hurt his cause that Hurts poses the
run threat he does.
Only the strongest enthusiasts of Pollard would have expected
him to handle at least 60 percent of his team's carries in two
of the first four games before the season. While it appears Tyjae
Spears began pushing for more work in Week 4 (37.5 percent carry
share), the more likely cause for the sudden surge was that the
Titans ran the ball 40 times (37 carries going to running backs)
in the team's last game before the Week 5 bye. Pollard may not
be the Titans' featured back, but he is being used at a level
right below that.
As noted earlier, it is slightly impressive to see Walker on
this list considering he missed two full games, although it also
a bit surprising he does not have a green game in this section
considering how much Seattle talked him up as a workhorse this
summer. With that said, Zach Charbonnet is a capable running back,
so the Seahawks are more than likely trying to play the long game
with Walker in hopes they can ride him hard down the stretch.
Even with his fumbling issues, Stevenson has enjoyed Conner-like
workloads through five weeks - albeit on arguably the worst offense
in the league. It is more likely than not his usage in the passing
game will save him from busting for fantasy purposes most weeks.
Perhaps he is a player who will benefit from the Patriots' decision
to roll with rookie Drake Maye moving forward, but he is not someone
I would feel great about playing most weeks (especially given
the ball security issues and how quickly that could get him pulled
from the game). I would feel even worse about starting him in
any week in which I did not expect the Patriots to be competitive
- as was the case in Week 3 against the Jets. In Weeks 1-2, New
England kept the game close and handed the ball off to its running
backs 32 times in each contest. Over the last three games - including
two double-digit losses - the Patriots' running backs have averaged
17.3 rush attempts.
A shoulder injury is likely partly to blame for Etienne's up-and-down
carry share, but the reality of the situation is that the plan
was to have him and Tank Bigsby share the workload all along.
The reason that did not happen last season was Bigsby fell on
his face when he had his opportunities. He has been one of the
league's best running backs so far this year. The Jaguars may
not ever get to a 50-50 split, but Bigsby will be a thorn in the
side of Etienne's fantasy managers all season long.
Jones' usage was trending in the way fantasy managers like to
see, but he is set to miss the next 2-3 weeks with the hip injury
he suffered in London. Ty Chandler can probably handle the bulk
of the carries in the short term, although he could not have asked
for a much more difficult matchup than the Lions after the Vikings'
Week 6 bye. There is no way of knowing if the Minnesota coaching
staff will opt to use the two backs in more of a committee once
Jones returns after considering his injury history, but I doubt
the Vikings will change what has worked for them so well thus
far.
One of my questions during the summer regarding the Miami backfield
was what would happen to Achane's workload in the likely event
Raheem Mostert got hurt. Would he keep the same role as last year
or operate as the featured back? I expected the former and Miami
gave us the latter. The downside to that choice was trusting a
smaller back would hold up to that kind of workload. Although
his most recent injury was a concussion (which could happen to
any running back at any time), I would not expect the Dolphins
to go back to riding Achane hard regardless if Mostert misses
more time down the road. (Jaylen Wright has proven he is ready
for more work.) With that said, it is becoming clear Miami needs
Tua Tagovailoa to have a prayer of enjoying the kind of explosiveness
we have come to expect from the Dolphins. Once Miami returns from
its bye this week, we should expect Achane to return to the 40
percent carry share level he had when the Dolphins were mostly
healthy in Week 1.
No Greens But At Least One Blue (only names not included above)
Dowdle "earned' feature-back usage in Week 5 after Dallas
decided it had seen enough of Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys
are prime candidates to keep giving warm bodies a chance to earn
carries (Dalvin Cook?) or acquire an upgrade at the trade deadline.
Not only is it unlikely Dowdle has emerged as a featured back
at age 26, but he has also never handled more than 133 carries
over seven college or pro seasons (2016; freshman season at South
Carolina). His injury history is also quite extensive.
It seems highly unlikely Swift just needed three games to knock
off the rust. He was legitimately one of the worst running backs
in the league - and Chicago's rushing attack as a whole was dreadful
- before two soft matchups against the Rams and Panthers. Caleb
Williams' improved play might save Swift because his usage in
the passing game should be a constant for him. Upcoming games
against the Jaguars and Commanders should help us decide if confidence
was the only thing OC Shane Waldron and the offensive line were
missing over the first three weeks of the season.
The Browns have been so bad offensively that very few conclusions
can be drawn about any of the offensive playmakers, including
Ford and Amari Cooper. Ford's usage has reflected the chaos going
on in Cleveland, although it probably will not change much once
Nick Chubb (knee) returns.
The last five backs in this section either qualify as Band-Aids
or fringe starters at best, which is a sobering thought for players
pushing for at least half of their teams' carries on a semi-regular
basis. It appears Hunt may have settled into a lead-back role
in Kansas City with 27 carries in Week 5, but was he that good
or was he just a more dependable player than what they had before?
Mattison inspires about as much confidence as Hunt.
At Least One White But No Greens or Blues (only names not included
above)
Unlike the section above that could easily be characterized as
part-time backs and one-hit wonders, this is a group that proves
consistently good volume in good or great offenses is usually
better than very occasional elite volume in average or poor offenses.
(Not that the notion should surprise anyone.) Most of these results
should speak for themselves, but I will highlight Harris because
his being here is quite surprising. Very few could have predicted
that Harris would not enjoy elite volume in a backfield without
Jaylen Warren. If there is a manager in your league that is can
be convinced that volume is ALWAYS king, trade Harris while you
can. Harris does not deserve the bulk of the blame, but it is
a rough life when any NFL running back can only turn 27 carries
against the Cowboys and Colts into 61 scoreless yards.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
