The hours and days after Week 3 are a great time to assess player
trends. The small amount of time we have between the start of Week
4 and Week 5 is a great time to make sense of the first quarter
of the season so we can make smarter decisions heading into the
second quarter.
Targets only tell us so much about how important a pass-catcher
is to his offense. Target share does a better job. While neither
one is much good without the target turning into a catch, it stands
to reason that a quarterback and/or offensive coordinator would
not keep going to a player who was consistently letting his team
down with his targets.
With that said, I thought it would be particularly helpful to
take a macro look at every player who has earned a reasonably
significant piece of his team's target pie. Rather than give readers
the quarterly stock report and one target share percentage through
four weeks, I thought it would be more beneficial to break the
team target share down on a game-to-game basis. This way, readers
can decide with some confidence if their player(s) are earning
enough targets every week to play regardless of the matchup. Similarly,
this can also be a helpful tool to see if a player is trending
up or down in terms of his importance to the passing game.
Key:
Green - Target share of at
least 25 percent Blue - Target share between 20 and 24.9 percent White - Target share between 15 and 19.9 percent Gray - Target share between 10 and 14.9 percent Yellow - Target share between 5 and 9.9 percent Red - Target share lower than 5 percent Black - Did not play
*** Any player who failed to reach 10 percent
in any of the first four weeks was removed for the sake of time
and space.
The bulk of this group probably should not come as a surprise
to most. Only two of the 15 players listed above (McConkey and
Sutton) typically lasted after the sixth or seventh round in most
drafts. Of the players listed above, four of them rank outside
the top 30 at their position.
Sutton has seen a ton of volume (36 targets) but has only turned
those opportunities into 15 receptions. McConkey has scored twice,
but his team's low-volume passing game means his 27.3 percent
target share isn't quite the same with the Chargers (88 total
targets) as it would mean with a team like the Browns (143). There
have only been 33 available targets in Baltimore over the last
two weeks, which explains why Flowers has not done more. Pittman
has also been involved in two games in which his offense threw
less than 20 times.
This is where things start getting a little bit more interesting.
Of the 16 names above, we would have expected to see the first
10 during our summer drafts. There is no point in discussing them
because they should be starting in the majority of leagues. The
last six are a bit surprising for a variety of reasons.
Brock Bowers: The presence of Davante Adams
and the Raiders' less-than-ideal offensive environment was supposed
to put a hard cap on his fantasy ceiling as a rookie. Credit to
new OC Luke Getsy and Gardner Minshew for finding a way to get
him involved anyway, although the last two games have been more
what managers expected early. Bowers will be a fantasy star one
day and it may happen as soon as this season, especially if/when
Davante Adams is traded.
Josh Downs: Despite only playing two games and
having two different quarterbacks since his Week 3 return, Downs
makes this list. He may not be seeing quite the alpha usage that
teammate Michael Pittman Jr. is, but it is clear from the two
games they have played together that HC Shane Steichen views them
in a similar light even though they are much different players.
Wan'Dale
Robinson: Robinson is not being used much differently
than he has in the past (7.5 YPC, 4.7 aDOT this season), but the
presence of Malik Nabers has taken most of the defensive attention
away from him. Nabers has not only created more room for him to
work underneath, but he has also enabled the Giants to extend
more drives. Almost a discount version of Downs in a lesser offense,
Robinson has evolved into a PPR cheat code who is an extension
of the running game.
Rashid Shaheed: I have been as intrigued by
Shaheed as any player over the first month of the season. The
Saints hinted at an increased offensive role for him this season
and they have delivered.
Here is a quick side-by-side comparison of New Orleans' top two
receivers:
Saints Receivers
Player
Routes
Snaps
Tgts
Yds/Route Run
Olave
99
27
24
2.68
Shaheed
97
27
25
2.60
Most people do not realize that Shaheed has outscored Olave in fantasy
this season, likely in part due to the focus on the latter being
shut out in Week 3. Had he even just met his season average (including
the Week 3 bagel) of 13.7 fantasy points, he would stand as the
overall WR8 through four games.
There is more: the next closest New Orleans receiver in routes
run is Mason Tipton with 46. The Saints are utilizing a ton of
12 personnel (two tight ends), which has led to Foster Moreau
being one of the team's snap leaders (180). If that comes as a
surprise, it is OK. The fact that Moreau (and fellow TE Juwan
Johnson) has done next to nothing in fantasy means the team's
limited targets are highly centralized. With the target share
pie only being spread in three directions (Alvin Kamara, Olave
and Shaheed), it is not as big of a deal that the offense is throwing
the ball less than 30 times per game. While his managers likely
are starting to appreciate him, it does not seem like the market
as a whole has caught up to the possibility that OC Klint Kubiak
views Olave and Shaheed in a similar light. He makes for a fantastic
buy in redraft or dynasty leagues until that perception changes.
Dallas
Goedert: While Goedert has always
been capable of being an overall TE1, his last two weeks have
almost certainly been a product of the Eagles missing A.J. Brown
(out since Week 1) and DeVonta Smith (injured early in the fourth
quarter in Week 3). Once Smith suffered his concussion about a
minute into the fourth quarter against the Eagles, Goedert recorded
three of his 10 catches and 90 of his 170 yards. With neither
stud receiver around in Week 4, Goedert posted a 7-62-0 line on
eight targets. None of this is to say he will not be a quality
TE1 in fantasy moving forward, but his recent production feels
like it is mostly the product of Brown and Smith getting hurt.
Especially in today's tight end market, fantasy managers should
consider seeing what they can get for Goedert before the Eagles
return to action in Week 6.
Michael
Wilson: It is too early to understand
Wilson's recent surge in production. He seems to have benefited
a bit from James Conner only seeing one target in each of the
last three contests after the running back drew four in the opener.
He probably saw his usage spike in Week 4 because McBride sat
out with a concussion. While his seven Week 4 targets are a solid
number for a complementary receiver, his 31.8 percent target share
number for that game was heavily inflated by the fact Kyler Murray
only attempted 22 passes.
We see our first running backs in this group. Outside of Swift's
ridiculous 31.8 percent target share last week, the backs listed
above are ones most fantasy managers would expect. Except for
Hill, every running back listed above typically came off the board
in the first six or seven rounds of drafts.
The first group of 20 receivers (non-italicized) were drafted
in the majority of leagues and likely never had a chance to be
acquired off waivers. Of the italicized group, there is a good
chance Legette, Johnston, Bateman, Mitchell, Davis and Douglas
were drafted and dropped at some point. From that group, there
may surprisingly only be two worth rostering in most leagues all
season (Johnston and Jennings). Lazard could be included in that
group if Davante Adams does not join the Jets, but he stands to
become almost useless in fantasy if he has to fight Mike Williams
for targets behind Adams and Garrett Wilson.
Legette also has a chance, but it might be too much to ask Andy Dalton to support three receivers once Adam Thielen (hamstring)
returns from IR. Douglas may be the most infuriating player for
managers. Anyone who added him at the end of last season knows
he could be a PPR cheat code if New England would focus on getting
its best players the ball. We saw his upside during garbage time
in Week 3 with seven catches for 68 yards. In his other three
games combined, he has five receptions for 25 yards. Mitchell
is too talented to be stuck behind Alec Pierce for long, but he
seems unlikely to challenge Michael Pittman Jr. or Josh Downs
for a significant target share in 2024.
Of the remaining italicized players (beginning with Tucker and
ending with Davis), Tucker easily possesses the most long-term
upside. The Raiders were already finding touches for Tucker in
Week 3 - perhaps it is more than coincidence that Bowers' relative
lack of involvement in the offense over the last two games has
coincided with Tucker's emergence. If Adams is traded, Tucker
goes from a bit of a glorified part-time deep threat to a full-time
second receiver alongside Jakobi Meyers. Given how often the Raiders
might be facing negative game scripts moving forward, Tucker could
offer spike-week potential.
Whittington is coming off the best game of his brief NFL career.
While it is hard to see him having much upside once Cooper Kupp
and Puka Nacua return, their injury histories are such that the
rookie could be valuable during the fantasy playoffs - provided
he can continue to earn Matthew Stafford's trust before the studs
get back. McCloud and Dortch are in the same boat - undersized
waterbug types who likely need an injury to a player in front
of them to have any chance at being considered regular fantasy
starters. With that said, both are most effective in their current
roles.
As bad as the tight end position has been this season, it is
mildly surprising (I kid) that seven of them have seen a target
share of at least 20 percent in one game. However, if it says
anything about the position, at least one of the bottom two or
three is typically available on the waiver wire or will be soon.
Assuming Rashee Rice (knee) is out for the season, Kelce would
appear to be a good bet to follow through on my preseason bold
prediction that he will outscore every other tight end by at least
30 points. He is currently the TE10 despite having no touchdowns
to his name, being "washed" and ignored for most of
the first three weeks.
The list of players with one "blue" week is 57 long,
so we will wrap this week with a rather eclectic group of six
"two blue" players. It is rather shocking to see Chase
here, although some of that is likely the product of his offseason
and preseason contract issues leading to a late report to the
team. Still, Chase has yet to draw more than seven targets in
any outing. Atwell's two big games have come in the last two weeks,
suggesting he has moved ahead of DeMarcus Robinson or at least
completely earned the trust of Matthew Stafford when he is on
the field.
Hopkins' blue weeks are a bit deceiving, but he was also working
his way back from a preseason knee issue. He has 11 targets over
the last two weeks after earning three in Weeks 1-2 combined.
Doubs' numbers were greatly influenced by the two-week stretch
Malik Willis started in place of an injured Jordan Love. Freiermuth
is still technically the No. 2 target in Pittsburgh. He is coming
off his best game of the season (5-57-1), which vaulted him into
the top five fantasy scorers at his position. There does not appear
to be much sizzle to Parkinson's steak. He has seen one less target
than Freiermuth (20-19), but he has done very little with his
opportunities.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
