Cover-1 (18.9 percent) and Cover-3 (35.8) made up almost 55 percent of the league-wide coverage snaps in 2023. Adding the 14.2 percent Cover-4/quarters rate brings the composite coverage rate of the three primary coverages to nearly 70 percent, making those three coverage shells the most important to fantasy managers.

In case you want a refresher as to why this is pertinent information, please refer to last week's article and then return to this one.

Alpha receivers are alphas for a reason; they are targeted and succeed against man or zone coverage much more often than they fail. Managers can figure out the identity of those players from the previous year most of the time by looking at the top 20 or so fantasy scorers at receiver and top five or so tight ends.

For the second straight week, I will be highlighting the six most common coverage "shells" used in today's game. The objective of this week's article is to figure out what receivers were able to succeed against certain kinds of defenses, why they succeeded and how that could impact their fortunes (and possibly the fortune of others) in 2024. Some coverages are used so sparingly that a definite answer cannot be given at this time.

Key:

Rt - Routes run against the specific shell coverage
Tgt - Targets accumulated against the specific shell coverage
aDOT - Average depth of target
TPRR - Targets per route run against the specific shell coverage
Rec - Receptions accumulated against the specific shell coverage
YPRR - Yards per route run against the specific shell coverage
1READ% - How often the pass-catcher was the first read against the specific shell coverage

For each group below, fantasy managers and DFS players alike want to see a high number of routes and targets, a double-digit aDOT (average depth of target), a TPRR (percent of targets per route run) of around .30, a YPPR (yards per route run) in the high 2s and a 1READ% (first-read percentage) pushing or exceeding 40 percent. Tight ends will rarely reach most of those marks for what should be obvious reasons, so we care more about the fact they show up on this list at all.

Note: Each table is sorted by number of targets. Each table will have at least 24 players, some will have several more due to lengthy ties for the last spot.

* All information in the tables below courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite.*

The league did not use Cover-0 much last season, so there is little reason to give it much consideration for projection purposes - outside of teams that face the Vikings (league-high 12.1 percent Cover-0 usage in 2023). Other than being a slight consideration when facing Minnesota's defense, the data set is too small of a sample to draw any conclusions about individual receivers or the archetype of the kind of receiver who excels against Cover-0.

One of the reasons for the Eagles' late collapse was then-OC Brian Johnson's inability to make adjustments to how often opponents were blitzing the Eagles over the second half of the season. The table above supports that very conclusion, as DeVonta Smith (39) and A.J. Brown (38) ran more routes against Cover-0 than any other player. Along with the Bears' duo of D.J. Moore (31) and Darnell Mooney (29) and the Cowboys' duo of CeeDee Lamb (29) and Jake Ferguson (29), six of the top seven entries - in terms of routes run versus Cover-0 - were teammates.

It makes sense that if a defense is sending the house and willing to leave themselves without a safety net in deep coverage, the offense will probably counter with an elite deep threat and/or bigger receiver - on a contested catch opportunity or a quick-hitter such as a slant - who provides his quarterback with a larger margin for error. Take Mike Evans for example. If he was on the field against Cover-0, Baker Mayfield looked his way every time. Christian Watson (83 percent) was targeted five of the six routes he ran versus Cover-0. It cannot be a coincidence that two of the league's biggest size-speed freaks were so frequently targeted against such an aggressive defense. Interestingly, Diontae Johnson (60 percent) ranked third and Demario Douglas (54.5) checked in at sixth.

Tunnel screens or quick slants also can work well against Cover-0. The aDOTs provided above suggest that is probably what happened in some cases. Take Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase and Adam Thielen, for example. They are three very different receivers who all finished with an aDOT in the 3.0-range against Cover-0. Stefon Diggs' 17.2 aDOT was more than four times higher than any member of the aforementioned trio.

Dalton Kincaid is one of only three tight ends that appear above (Jonnu Smith and Dallas Goedert - another Eagle - are the others). It is at least notable that Kincaid ran 12 fewer routes against Cover-0 than former teammate Diggs, yet he was targeted and served as the first read more often.

The archetype to beat Cover-0: It sounds almost too obvious, but be big and/or fast OR get open quickly. Things are rarely ever that simple in football, but it is a good bet to make against Cover-0. Unfortunately, this information will only be moderately useful for the one or two times receivers face the Vikings this season.

Cover-1 observations (18.9 percent usage rate)

Because Cover-1 is played about 4 1/2 times as much as Cover-0 and the defenses are similar in several ways, it makes sense to put much more weight on Cover-1 results than Cover-0. Since there are several Cover-1 principles in Cover-0, it makes sense that we would see a few of the same names from the previous section. They are:

CeeDee Lamb
Michael Pittman Jr.
A.J. Brown
Davante Adams
Adam Thielen
Keenan Allen
Stefon Diggs
Terry McLaurin
D.J. Moore
Calvin Ridley
Josh Downs

There are a few of the usual suspects one might expect (clear alphas last year such as Moore, Lamb and Adams), but also a few we would probably not expect due to inconsistency (Ridley), age (Allen and Thielen, most notably) or youth (Downs). Unlike the previous section, we are talking about a defense that was used at the second-highest rate last season. Therefore, a plethora of receivers ran 100-plus routes against it. (In fact, 98 players ran more routes against Cover-1 than any receiver did versus Cover-0.) This should give us a large enough sample to make some more solid observations.

The most surprising name of the bunch is easily Slayton. It goes without saying he did not receive great quarterback play or have an offensive line capable of holding up long enough to give his quarterback time to throw a good intermediate or deep ball, which makes the fact he caught 67 percent of his targets with a fairly hefty 14.7 aDOT all the more impressive.

DK Metcalf is a better route-runner than some give him credit for, so it is not hard to imagine why a 6-4, 236-pound receiver with freakish athleticism would be targeted so heavily against a defense that does not offer his defender much help. The sad part of his numbers above is that he barely managed to catch half of the throws his way versus Cover-1. This could be due to any number of reasons, most likely having to do with a lack of creativity in the play-calling or lack of route diversity. Geno Smith is more accurate than he is often given credit for, so Metcalf's numbers should improve against Cover-1 in 2024.

It has come as little surprise that Marquise Brown was targeted so heavily with the receiving corps being what it was last year in Arizona or that he failed to catch half of his targets. He is about to go from playing with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune for most of his season last year to Patrick Mahomes, however. He could easily crack the top 10 on the table above next season.

I would be willing to label the first three instances as receivers winning with speed or athleticism, which makes sense against a defense that is predominantly man coverage. Cooper Kupp appears on this list because he saw a ton of volume against this coverage and was crafty enough to create separation. That is it. He was not effective with it for large parts of the season. With that said, he deserves a pass. If we compare Kupp to Adam Thielen or Keenan Allen above, it suggests that Kupp was probably playing at about 70 percent health for most of 2023 because we saw instances where he was his vintage self. Kupp is younger than both and had a quarterback comparable to Justin Herbert throwing him the ball. Certainly, his recent injury woes scare me, but great route-runners tend to age gracefully in the NFL. If he can avoid last year's soft tissue adventures, Kupp's metrics should be similar to the ones Thielen and Allen enjoyed in 2023.

Kupp's place on this table is very interesting for another reason: he was the first-read target on nearly 40 percent of the team's targets against Cover-1 despite missing five games! Yes, Puka Nacua's 31.6 percent first-target rate is still exceptionally good, but Kupp's advantage here suggests Matthew Stafford is going to go his way when he knows he has to get rid of the ball.

Whereas I believe Kupp's aDOT was a product of his poor health to some degree, Rice and Samuel's low aDOTs were likely a function of their offenses. Kansas City realized quickly it could not threaten defenses downfield but knew it had to get the ball into Rice's hands regardless. Samuel's aDOT did not exceed 6.7 in any one of the three seasons with Washington, so his average depth of target against Cover-1 was just more of the same usage he became accustomed to with the Commanders.

The archetype to beat Cover-1: A glance at the first-read percentage against Cover-1 is telling. Not only do A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, D.J. Moore and Courtland Sutton occupy the top five spots in this category, but each one also weighs at least 215 pounds. Four of the five ranked inside the top 50 in yards after catch last season as well. DeVonta Smith, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jakobi Meyers and Jerry Jeudy are among the quality receiver teammates who rank nowhere close to the aforementioned group in terms of first-read percentage versus Cover-1.

Once again, it makes sense: give bigger receivers the ball quickly and let them try to avoid the one deep defender once he has beat his man. Size is not the only consideration here, as Justin Jefferson and Keenan Allen also rank inside the top 10. With that said, it seems reasonable to suggest that an offense/quarterback facing a team playing a high percentage of Cover-1 may be more inclined to target bigger receivers over the smaller and shiftier route-runners.

Some of the catch rates above are insane and provide sound reasoning as to why Cover-2 is not used as much as it used to be. Among the players listed above, 15 of them hauled in at least 80 percent of their targets. Dalton Kincaid caught all 18 of his targets against Cover-2. Puka Nacua checked in a 93.3 percent and Chase at 94.1. Tyreek Hill destroyed Cover-2 in 2023, serving as the first read on 49 percent of the routes Miami faced Cover-2. He caught 30 of the 36 targets he saw against the coverage. Both his target and catch totals versus Cover-2 nearly lapped the field.

Also of some interest is the first-read percentage of Deebo Samuel against Cover-2. Samuel's 30 routes versus this particular zone make it clear that San Francisco did not see it very often in 2023, but a 57.9-percent first-read rate is a clear indication he was HC Kyle Shanahan and/or Brock Purdy's Cover-2 beater.

It is almost comical to look at about half of the list of players who finished among the top 24 in targets (15 or more) against Cover-2 - relative to every other shell coverage. Some of the more interesting names:

Cole Kmet
Tyler Conklin
Jayden Reed
Jakobi Meyers
Jonathan Mingo
Logan Thomas

Of particular note is Reed's 17.7 aDOT against a defense designed to take away the big play. Much credit goes to HC Matt LaFleur last year for being able to scheme his rookie against a linebacker or safety in coverage by using layered routes and play-action.

One of the most interesting names in this particular top 24 (who appears elsewhere) is Conklin. He was a master of efficiency against Cover-2, catching all but two of his 18 targets. Conklin will not wow anyone averaging right around 10 yards per catch over the last three seasons, but his 87 targets each year over that stretch - including on two bad Jets' offenses recently - suggests he knows how to make himself appealing to quarterbacks. He will be the forgotten man in the Jets' offense this season with defenses focusing on Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, but it should not be a surprise if he excels again against Cover-2 and comes close to doubling his previous career high of three touchdowns with a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center.

The archetype to beat Cover-2: The table reinforces the notion of how important a capable tight end can be against Cover-2. Eight of the 24 players on the list are tight ends (and Jake Ferguson just missed the cut with 14 targets).

Elite route-runners with great spatial awareness can get open against just about every coverage, but they can be deadly against Cover-2 because of how they can influence the safety. Highly athletic tight ends with the speed to outrun linebackers down the seam will feast if the safeties have to respect the speed of the perimeter receivers. In other words, this defense is the one fantasy managers want to target if they need a big game from their tight end.

Seven teams utilized Cover-3 at least 40 percent of the time in 2023, including two teams who called it more than 50 percent, making this defense the one to weigh the most heavily when considering matchups this season. Four of the seven teams kept their defensive coordinator from last year. For better or worse (for fantasy managers anyway), this defense did not produce any real surprises, outside of maybe who saw the most targets.

Cover-3 is more of a jack-of-all-trades-and-master-of-none defense, which means alphas can alpha if the quarterbacks and/or offensive coordinators allow them to do so. Of the 18 receivers above, none of them finished below WR24. The top-six scoring tight ends in fantasy last year all reside on this list as well. It makes sense that the top 24 target earners above are so predictable since Cover-3 does a lot well but nothing great. It follows that quarterbacks will lean on their alphas in those situations. Another one of the things Cover-3 does well is help bad run defenses defend the run. NFL defense nowadays is usually a matter of covering up a weakness but throwing enough changeups that the offense is always slightly unsure what it is about to see next. If the offensive coordinator gets a good feeling on what the other side is doing and when they are doing it, a jack-of-all-trades-and-master-of-none defense is not going to hold up for very long.

This is the last of three tables Calvin Ridley appears on, which likely comes as a huge shock to any fantasy manager who rode it out with him last season. It bears mentioning that his 12.1 aDOT is one of the highest on this list, while his 18.0 aDOT against Cover-1 was the highest on that list. It is just another reminder that he was not afforded the luxury of a lot of short passes to bump up his efficiency against any coverage (only 36.4 percent of his targets were nine yards or closer to the line of scrimmage in 2023), which in turn did not help him in terms of consistency. If HC Brian Callahan follows through on his plan to use Ridley like Ja'Marr Chase (i.e. send him in motion and give him more slot opportunities), we should expect to see him be more efficient this fall.

Considering Evan Engram appears as high as he does on this list, we can easily conclude that the Jaguars saw a ton of Cover-3. It could also mean something else: Ridley could erupt versus this shell coverage in 2024 without Engram around or Engram could do likewise without Ridley around. The former seems more likely, although I tend to believe neither player will do significantly better. DeAndre Hopkins also appears high on the table above and was the first read for Tennessee on a very healthy 40 percent of the routes the Titans saw Cover-3 in 2023. As for Engram, it is much more likely Brian Thomas Jr. simply absorbs the Ridley role in the Jags' offense and caps Engram's ability to beat what he did a season ago against Cover-3.

Deebo Samuel saw far less action against this shell than Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle and was only the first read on 14.4 percent of throws versus Cover-3. When sorted by yards per route run (YPRR), it becomes clear that Aiyuk should be considered the preferred target from San Francisco against this shell entering the season.

The archetype to beat Cover-3: The top of this table - when sorted by first-read percentage - pretty much reads like a who's who at receiver. If there is a highly athletic tight end in the league, he is probably on this list as well. Tight ends or slot receivers that run well down the seam or have the speed to separate from coverage on deep over routes also tend to do well.

One of the primary reasons that defenses use this shell - despite its rigidity - is that it tends to force offenses into sustaining long drives. It stands to reason that if a defense is usually forcing long drives, it is probably giving up a lot of short passes. Offenses know their best option to avoid prolonged drives is to give the ball to their pass-catchers who can break a tackle. All of this contributes to alphas being alphas because they are typically very good after the catch. In short, the archetype that fantasy managers should want to target against teams that use a lot of Cover-3 is an offense's clear alpha receiver - assuming it has one.

Cover-4 observations (14.2 percent usage rate)

Cover-4 will likely soon surpass Cover-1 as the second-most used coverage shell in the NFL, if only because it is probably the most malleable of the philosophies discussed in this piece. It is flexible enough to add help against the run, provide plenty of deep support and allow defensive coordinators to mix man and zone coverage principles. With that said, it only leaves three players (assuming a four-man rush) to cover all of the underneath zones, so the short and intermediate areas of the field should be open for multiple pass-catchers. Cover-4 also often requires more practice and communication among defensive backs than the aforementioned coverages because of the different rules (i.e. more if/then scenarios), so busts can happen more frequently if the team is in its infancy in learning the defense.

Three interesting names make their first appearance against this defense: Tyler Lockett, Trey McBride and Nico Collins. Lockett's short/intermediate/deep target breakdown last season was remarkably similar to his 2022 breakdown. Former OC Shane Waldron seemed to typecast his receivers near the end of his time in Seattle. He appeared to favor getting the ball to Lockett in the intermediate range (10-19 yards), which is about where Cover-4 should be the weakest. Lockett was not exactly efficient (which is very much outside the norm for him) against this particular defense - nor was he targeted very much in the intermediate area - but he was highly effective (67.9 percent catch rate) on passes thrown between 10 and 19 yards down the field.

With apologies to McBride, his appearance on this list is mostly a function of facing Cover-4 a lot after breaking into the starting lineup and catching 85 percent of his 20 targets. Then again, a high catch rate should be expected with a 6.3 aDOT on a defense that is weakest at the second level. Collins has one of the lowest route participation numbers of the 24 pass-catchers that made the list, but all that means is he was frequently targeted when Houston saw Cover-4. His .29 TPRR - while likely a product of Tank Dell missing as much time as he did - is a high-end number. It makes sense given his short/intermediate/deep target breakdown, as 65.9 percent of his targets came in the short and intermediate areas of the field.

Perhaps no receiver liked playing any defense more than Jaylen Waddle liked seeing Cover-4 last year. He caught 20 of his 24 targets and averaged an insane 5.34 yards per route run against this shell. Those numbers were obviously buoyed by his two huge games against the Jets, who ranked second in the league in Cover-4 usage. Considering that Tyreek Hill is usually the focus of the defense's attention and HC Mike McDaniel typically has something going with motion in the backfield before the snap, Waddle can generally operate without much trouble in the same range as Lockett. Waddle's 41 intermediate targets is a solid number, but it is the 70.7 percent catch rate on those receptions that helped him perform so well versus Cover-4.

The archetype to beat Cover-4: With four deep defenders as a hallmark of this defense, it stands to reason why there would be a few more bigger-bodied pass-catchers (who are willing to absorb a bit of contact or give their quarterbacks a larger margin for error on certain throws) in this table. Those players include Puka Nacua, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, David Njoku and Drake London. Another consideration here is that Cover-4 typically uses one of two variations - man-match or spot zone.

In other words, there is no guarantee that a Cover-4 shell is primarily a zone or man defense. Since true alpha receivers typically can beat any man or zone defense, it makes sense that many of the expected alphas are actually listed inside the top 24 of targets against this defense of shell. In short, we probably need at least one more year of evidence to conclude if there is a certain archetype that performs significantly better than another archetype. The best (and perhaps safest) bet against this defense is receivers/tight ends that excel at running in-breaking routes. Why? Cornerbacks are supposed to play bail coverage to occupy their quarter of the deep part of the field, which should leave a reasonably sized window for the quarterback to target as soon as the pass-catcher breaks his route inside.

Cover-6 observations (9.5 percent usage rate)

Perhaps it was a matter of believing they could take advantage of an injured Trevor Lawrence. Maybe defenses had reason to believe they could confuse Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Jake Browning or any of the numerous starting quarterbacks of the Vikings and Jets. Whatever the cause, it is not a coincidence that 11 of the 16 players who ran so many routes against this shell coverage are teammates. Of the five players who ran the most routes against Cover-6, three of them are Buccaneers. Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin are inside the top 11. Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo also reside inside the top 16.

The reason this is noteworthy is that one of the prime considerations that should be taken away from this study is seeing multiple entries from the same team inside the top 25. It gives us a painfully clear idea of what defensive coordinators thought of that team, especially a newer blended coverage shell such as Cover-6. No team is using Cover-6 as its primary shell, so coordinators run the risk of getting burnt in a big way using a defense they do not use a lot and that is the most likely to break down (due to communication errors and unfamiliarity with it). Yet, a team like the Buccaneers faced it almost twice as much as the rest of the league.

Since Cover-6 is a combination of Cover-2 and Cover-4, there is not much more to add here that has not already been said. Of the top 24 target-earners against Cover-6, 11 of them appear on either the Cover-2 list or the Cover-4 list - if not both. For such a small-sample defense, we can reasonably conclude - for now - that pass-catchers capable of earning targets of such a high rate against Cover-2 and Cover-4 will likely do so against Cover-6.

The archetype to beat Cover-6: One of the most frequent ways to beat Cover-2 is with a tight end who can run well down the seam. One of the most frequent ways to beat Cover-4 is with in-breaking routes. Thus, it should come as little surprise that players who fit at least one of those criteria who were so heavily targeted against a defense that combined the two principles are well represented above. Unfortunately, the relative lack of usage of Cover-6 makes it a bit harder to find a true archetype. Much like Cover-4, the best (and perhaps safest) bet against this defense is receivers/tight ends that excel at running in-breaking routes considering the cornerbacks are bailing in coverage. As such, players who excel at short, quick-hitting routes are a smart play most of the time.