Well, we’re movin’ on up
To the east side
To a deluxe apartment in the sky…
- Ja'net Dubois and Jeff Barry (co-writers for the theme song
of The Jeffersons)
For the younger members of my audience, the above lyrics may
not be all that familiar to you. For all of those readers around
40 years of age, The Jeffersons was a staple in the entertainment
lineup of many Americans from 1975-1985 and one of the longest
running sitcoms in the history of American television. (Ah, don’t
we all remember the days when TV Guide was just a magazine?)
The
reason I chose “Movin’ on Up” to lead into this
week’s article is because that is exactly what I am trying
to do with this week’s submissions.The
Fantasy Championship and FFPC
offer the biggest payouts in fantasy football, so it is about
time that I start creating some Big Boards that not only cater
to those contests, but also recognize the difference between the
scoring in those leagues and the more traditional formats I have
been focused on for the last few years. I know of several high-stakes
players that have used the traditional Big Boards I have built
in the past with great success, so it only makes sense to make
a few alterations on my end in order to make sure those owners
have the same kind of resource that many of you have utilized.
The TFC and FFPC use scoring that is very similar to the PPR
scoring I used in last
week’s Big Boards. The main differences are as follows:
1) the TFC rewards four points (instead of six) for passing touchdowns,
penalizes one point (instead of two) for interceptions and hands
out a point for every 20 yards passing (instead of 25).
2) the FFPC uses the same scoring as I just laid out for the TFC,
but rewards tight ends 1.5 points for every catch and one point
for every other position.
Needless to say, there isn’t going to be much difference
between the Big Boards this week, outside of the fact that tight
ends will appear much earlier and slightly more often in the FFPC
Big Board. I realize that 150 players probably won’t be
enough for you this week (both sites use a 20-round draft) and
I apologize for that. Fear not, however, as next week’s
200-player Big Boards should be deep enough for the majority of
you. (And honestly, shouldn’t most of us be drafting our
most important teams next week anyway?)
Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
two key points:
1) I doubt you will find another draft board like this one and
further doubt you will find a similar set of rankings anywhere
else. The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among
analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected
consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy
numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency
and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration.
Someday, I hope the industry catches on to my way of thinking.
Until then, I’ll try to win as many titles as possible and
help you do the same.
2 ) Much like the past three seasons, I want to provide readers
with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk –
be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see
a
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Success score (SSI) – The sum of several position-specific
attributes that I feel are important to fantasy production, weighted
and scored. A perfect score is 1000, but it may help to move the
decimal point one spot to the left and think of each score as a
percentage. It may also help to think of the final score as the
likelihood that player will produce at the level I have projected
him if his current environment stays roughly the same as it is now.
Just so you know what you are getting yourself into, here are some
of the attributes I weighed and scored at each position:
Quarterback – Talent,
job security, four-game stat projection, red-zone projection (how
often I believe the quarterback will either throw or run the ball
himself inside the 20) and the degree to which I believe his offense
is conservative or will play that way because of an elite defense.
Running back – Talent,
job security, durability, four-game stat projection, three-down
back (based on projected snaps) and the run-blocking prowess of
his offensive line.
Wide receiver – Talent,
job security, four-game stat projection and projected red-zone
scores.
Tight end – Talent, job
security, projected red-zone scores and projected targets in relation
to his peers at the position.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
I’d like to direct your attention to the bottom of
the top 25 for this week’s most notable changes, since there
has been a lot of shuffling in that area over the last seven days
as I’ve had a chance to reevaluate how I feel about certain
players. Most owners already planned on Forte’s receptions
dropping precipitously from the 102 he managed last season, but
few realize he played over 1,000 snaps last season. To put that
number in some perspective, Le’Veon Bell was second with 943
and DeMarco Murray was third with 800! And in case you were wondering,
Forte logged a league-high 940 snaps in 2013. (His previous career
high prior to the arrival of former HC Marc Trestman two years ago?
As a rookie in 2008, with 875.) What’s my point? Forte was
in on 92.3 percent of the snaps in 2014 or 87.9 percent in 2013
– a level of playing time that I’m fairly certain HC
John Fox and OC Adam Gase don’t want a back that will turn
30 in December approaching again. Chicago added Jeremy Langford
in the draft and Jacquizz Rodgers in free agency, strongly suggesting
it wants to get Forte’s playing time down into the 75-80-percent
area while also allowing the team to run the ball more often. What
it all means is this: I believe he’ll match last year’s
rushing production, but I think his statistical ceiling is somewhere
around 1,500 total yards and around eight touchdowns, not the 1,889
yards and 11 scores he averaged under Trestman.
Three new players cracked the top 25, each of whom possess question
marks big enough to match their incredibly high upside. I’m
not usually in the business of placing a lot of trust in 32-year-old
backs entering a new offense with a highly-questionable run-blocking
unit working in front of them. Then again, are you going to try
to convince me that Frank Gore can’t replicate the combined
production of Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson (250 carries
for 944 yards and five rushing touchdowns; 65 catches for 529
yards and six scores) if he stays healthy? Admittedly, I’m
not going to expect him to hit the lofty reception and receiving
yardage totals, but I definitely think the rushing and total touchdown
numbers are achievable. And in the games when the Colts struggle
to run, Gore is more than capable of acting as a Bradshaw-like
outlet in the flat for Andrew Luck. The more I think about it,
owners betting against Gore are betting against his age and little
else. Need more convincing? Let’s recall what former career
backup Dan Herron did in the playoffs. If Gore stays healthy,
I really starting to believe he has another top-10 fantasy finish
left in him.
The last two new occupants in the top 25 are a pair of Saints
– Cooks and Ingram. In my first set of Big Boards, I ranked
Cooks as the WR18 at the end of the third round primarily due
to my concerns over his durability and perceived inability to
contribute very often in the red zone (both due to his size).
In hindsight, if I choose not to hold size against someone like
T.Y. Hilton, then I really can’t do that for Cooks, who
is essentially the same kind of receiver with less competition
for catches. The second-year Oregon State product has 100-catch
upside, which is almost enough by itself to make him a WR1 in
PPR leagues. The reality of the situation is that Cooks is probably
going to average at least 12 yards per catch with his speed and
elusiveness and turn about six or eight of those receptions into
touchdowns. Can you handle a 100-1,200-8 season total from your
third-round pick? I thought so.
Ingram is likely the more controversial pick by a wide margin
and I recognize that. I can completely understand if owners can’t
swallow Ingram as a top 25 pick due to a lack of durability. However,
before completely dismissing him, how is he really all that much
different than DeMarco
Murray or LeSean
McCoy? Murray’s injury history isn’t any better than Ingram’s
and he’s going to be sharing roughly 30 percent of the workload
in Philadelphia; Murray will probably top out around 275 touches
assuming he can even hold up for 16 games. As far as Ingram is
concerned, I saw enough evidence in the Saints’ Week 2 preseason
game versus the Patriots that he has made significant strides
as a receiver. I recognize C.J.
Spiller is probably going to command somewhere in the neighborhood
of 70-80 catches – if he can stay healthy – once he recovers from
his knee surgery, but do really expect the 150.5 receptions that
Saints’ running backs have averaged the last four years to go
down all that much? If Ingram can push his catch total into the
40s (up from 29 in 13 games last year), he’s going to get his
chance to finish as a top-10 running back. (In case you don’t
believe me, he was the RB14 in overall PPR scoring last year despite
missing three games.
26-50:
I’m starting to get a bad feeling about McCoy holding
up for an entire season. It’s been one ailment after another
since he arrived in Buffalo, starting with a sore neck in the
offseason and toe soreness in early August before a left hamstring
pull in mid-August sidelined him for the rest of the preseason.
It may be something or it may be nothing, so you are more than
welcome to treat those injuries as coincidence. My second and
third concerns for the former Eagle are Buffalo’s likely
offensive pace and new OC Greg Roman’s recent play-calling
history. The 2015 Bills’ defense may very well go down as
one of the best in recent history. In order to play to its defense,
Buffalo is going to do the exact opposite of what Philadelphia
did while McCoy was there – slow the game down and reduce
the number of plays whenever possible. While the team’s
quarterback issues could be construed as a positive as it relates
to McCoy’s workload, his offensive line with the Bills this
year is arguably every bit as challenged as the Eagles’
injury-plagued front five was last year. McCoy could theoretically
make up for some of his lost production on the ground as a receiver,
but it should be noted that Gore’s high in catches in four
years under Roman was 28. This after the Niners’ all-time
leading rusher averaged 51 receptions in five seasons prior to
Roman’s arrival.
Davante Adams has spent all summer generating praise in Packers’
camp, so he was already due for a breakout. I planned on moving
him into the seventh-round area prior to Nelson’s injury,
but it is safe to say that range will be at least 2-3 rounds too
late going forward. While it would be a mistake to assume he will
simply step into Nelson’s 2014 numbers (98-1,519-13, as
stated earlier) because of Aaron Rodgers’ greatness, there
should be little doubt he performs at a fantasy WR2 level after
entering the preseason as a high-upside WR3. Adams is physically
dominant enough to match Nelson’s touchdown production from
a season ago and is terrific after-the-catch, but I doubt he approaches
the lofty catch or YPC (15.5) numbers of his predecessor. I think
a reasonable range for the Packers’ new No. 2 receiver is
between 75-1,000-8 and 85-1,200-10, although I’d lean more
toward the former than the latter. I’m comfortable placing
him right where I have him; right in the middle of the third round
behind the elite receivers capable of collecting 80-plus catches,
1,000-plus yards and/or 10 touchdowns.
51-100:
In case you hadn’t noticed, I don’t mind rolling the
dice on potential difference-making injured players. The key –
as it often is in fantasy football – is when to roll the
dice. After taking a week to delve deeper into the running back
position, it has occurred to me that I’d prefer 10-12 games
from Foster over 16 from most runners. In the fifth or sixth round,
most owners have already secured a pair of running backs and receivers,
so a pick in that area makes Foster a RB3/flex option. If I told
you before the season that you could get 6-8 elite-level performances
from your fifth- or sixth-round pick, would you pull the trigger?
I would. Taking it one step further, I expect a large number of
owners that use their first three picks on receivers to choose
Foster at the 5/6 turn. Imagine a team built around Julio Jones,
A.J. Green and perhaps Amari Cooper getting a healthy Foster in
their lineup in early October. Sign me up.
It’s been a good run for Roddy White, but a player that
was looking like a fairly good value pick a month or two ago is
trending more in the direction of a player who needs to be avoided
– at least as it relates to expectations of him being a
weekly fantasy starter. The Falcons’ all-time leading receiver
has missed two games in each of the last two years after achieving
iron-man status over his first eight seasons. This offseason alone,
he’s had his knee drained (something he says will need to
be done again during the season) and will soon undergo surgery
on his right elbow. It’s hard to ever bet against a receiver
that has so regularly crossed the 80-catch threshold, but 2015
is looking more like the beginning of the end than an extension
of a great career. This is one I’d be happy to get wrong,
but the evidence we have at this point suggests White belongs
on fantasy benches this season.
What is the deal with the Giants’ offense in the preseason
under OC Ben McAdoo? In seven exhibition contests over two seasons
under McAdoo, Eli Manning is 28-for-63 for 256 yards and one touchdown,
including 8-for-22 through two games this year and repeated miscommunications
with Odell Beckham Jr. Maybe we need to treat this as another
preseason mirage, but I’m going to need see something remotely
positive next week (and I would hope HC Tom Coughlin wants to
see this as well) if I’m going to remain somewhat bullish
on Giants’ receivers this season.
101-150:
Martavis Bryant has generated plenty of buzz following the incredible
second half he enjoyed as a rookie last season, but doesn’t
it seem like Ben Roethlisberger is doing his best to hint to fantasy
owners that he may not be the next-best Steelers’ receiver
to own after Antonio Brown? Roethlisberger recently told the Pittsburgh
Tribune-Review that Bryant is still learning the offense and Pittsburgh
has been consistent in using him with the first team only when
it goes three-wide. It is important to not diminish players that
have a nose for the end zone, but it also isn’t usually
the best idea for owners to rely too heavily on a receiver that
averages a score every 3.25 catches (his rate as a rookie) either.
Conversely, Roethlisberger told Sirius XM radio in early August
and predicted Markus Wheaton would be the team’s breakout
player. While it isn’t uncommon for a quarterback to give
an underappreciated receiver a vote of confidence during an interview,
the Steelers appear very comfortable keeping Wheaton locked in
as a starter over Bryant. The third-year Oregon State product
posted a 53-644-2 line in what was considered a disappointing
year, so it is fair to conclude that Wheaton is able to get on
the same page as Big Ben a bit more often in one of the league’s
best offenses, he is probably a pretty good candidate for a fairly
hefty boost in production.
David Johnson boosted his stock with 77 total yards in his debut,
although I was a bit surprised to find out he created the waves
he did among fantasy owners. Why? We didn’t even get to
see the speed and explosion that made him such a terror at the
FCS level. The Northern Iowa rookie’s biggest gain was 13
yards, so it isn’t as if he made the splashy play that often
catches the eye of owners desperate to hit on a late-round gem.
What I found most impressive about his first professional game
was that he displayed a willingness to run inside, which was one
of his biggest knocks during the draft process. Johnson is unlikely
to overtake Andre Ellington on the depth chart anytime soon, but
he is certainly capable of turning the Arizona backfield into
a committee if he continues to run in between the tackles. It’s
still obvious he wants to bounce runs from time to time, but he’s
the most likely player to become the Cardinals’ new feature
back in the likely event Ellington must miss time at some point.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see
a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.
