In today's NFL, constant attention must be paid to the backfields
of all 32 teams if owners hope to get the production they want and
expect from what can be a highly volatile fantasy position. With
so many committees and so much potential production hinging on game
script, it is rarely ever a bad idea to see what trends are developing
and/or if we can identify why they are occurring.
As I have referenced in previous articles, I consider one player
receiving at least 60 percent of the backfield touches to be a
featured back. I consider 70 percent to be a workhorse back. For
the sake of time and space, let's identify those players now.
The names below should not come as a shock to any serious fantasy
owner. I am going to cut "featured backs" some slack below since
game script and/or an injury are legitimate reasons why they may
not be able to hit the aforementioned marks in every
game. (Players are listed in alphabetical order and workload "exceptions"
are highlighted in red.)
For the purposes of this article, the classifications are
merely related to the percentage of touches each player has received
thus far and not how the back is viewed by the team or fantasy
owners. For example, Todd Gurley is a workhorse in the real game
and can't really help it if the offense he plays on is so good
that it occasionally allows him to catch a break at the end of
games.
Workhorses (at least
70 percent of touches in every game)
Regardless of what each player's current situation may be now,
the first half of the season suggests these 10 players will not
see their roles change dramatically over the final two months
of the season, barring injury. Owners also don’t need me
to convince them why they need to be in lineups either, so this
will be the extent to which I talk about them this week. It's
the other 22 teams (and situations) that need more clarity, which
is exactly why I wanted to make them my focus for this week.
For the sake of relevancy, players with fewer than 10 touches
for the season were removed unless they can be realistically expected
to have some kind of impact in the second half of the season.
(Because I chose to remove some of those players, some of the
totals will not equal the sum of the "relevant" players.)
The bolded number at the bottom of each table is the total number
of touches for that backfield for that week. To be clear,
all the numbers you see below are for running backs only; it does
not take rush attempts from quarterbacks, fullbacks or receivers
into account.
Given the fact Freeman cannot return until Week 15 at the earliest
(and may not return at all this season), the Falcons are almost
certain to use Coleman and Smith in tandem for the rest of the
fantasy regular season. Coleman has essentially moved into Freeman's
lead role (at least from a touch percentage perspective) while
Smith appears to have taken over as the new Coleman, although
the splits from Week 6 and Week 7 suggest OC Steve Sarkisian is
willing to ride the "hot hand" if one develops during
the game. Coleman is overall RB13 in PPR at the moment and is
benefiting from some luck as a receiver (one touchdown every five
receptions this season after scoring six times as a receiver on
60 catches over his first three seasons), so he's probably going
to need to pick it up as a rusher (he has back-to-back games with
4.5 yards per carry or more after five of his first six games
were well under that mark). To this point, Smith has been a volatile
flex option that needs to find the end zone (which he has done
in four of the last five weeks, from distances of 2, 7, 12 and
14 yards). After a Week 10 tilt with the Browns, expect both players'
production to slow down a bit with the stout run defenses of the
Cowboys, Saints and Ravens next on the schedule.
Although it may seem hard for owners of Collins to believe, Baltimore
has become more of his backfield over the last four weeks. In
what seems to be more than just a coincidence, Allen's workload
began to decline in Week 6 when he fumbled in a loss one week
earlier to the Browns. The biggest difference has come with his
rush attempts, as he has a total of five over last four weeks
after averaging 6.8 over the first five games. Collins hasn't
benefited quite as much as owners might have hoped, however, as
Baltimore is throwing more now than it has in recent memory (Joe
Flacco has no fewer than 37 pass attempts since the opener after
failing to hit that mark in half of his games last year). Unfortunately,
it appears the Ravens have either settled on (or in the process
of) making Collins the positive and neutral game script runner
as opposed to the featured runner many of us believed he would
be based on his strong finish last year. The addition of Ty Montgomery
is more of a threat to Allen, although it's not out of the realm
of possibility he could end up splitting snaps with Collins if
the latter has any more ball security issues moving forward.
Buffalo has scored one offensive touchdown in the last three
games and eight for the season. It's hard to believe in this day
and age that an offense can be this bad. There's not really much
else that needs to be said. For whatever it is worth, McCoy has
been mostly usable at home and mostly awful on the road so far,
but he has only 23 yards on 22 carries over the past two weeks.
Play any Bill at your own risk.
A quick glance above would suggest Howard is a borderline workhorse.
While he has been a productive RB2 over the last three weeks,
he has become dangerously reliant on rushing touchdowns. His early-season
contributions in the passing game have almost disappeared, meaning
this backfield has evolved into predicting whether the Bears will
play with the lead enough each week in order to get Howard 15
carries at his career-low 3.5 yards per carry or if HC Matt Nagy
will turn to Cohen to spark the offense because Chicago is trailing.
Cohen has a team-high 34 targets over the last five games and
was a primary figure during Mitch Trubisky's three-game explosion
from Weeks 4-6, although matchups against the offensively challenged
Jets and Bills have led to much less work overall. Moving forward,
this backfield should be fairly easy to project as long as owners
do a good job of guessing whether Chicago will win or not. Positive
game script or any game against an opponent with a lackluster
offense will favor Howard; negative game script and/or any shootout
should mean Cohen will be the better play.
Cleveland actually should be one of easier backfields for owners
to project week in and week out. Between the two, either Hyde
or Chubb has reached 18 touches in seven of nine games this season,
including all three straight since Hyde was traded. Chubb has
essentially absorbed all of the work Hyde accepted over the first
six weeks, while the promotion of RB coach Freddie Kitchens (following
the dismissal of HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley) may have been
just what the doctor ordered for Johnson. If I was a Johnson owner
(which I am not), I would contemplate selling high after this
week if possible, however. His ability is not in question; he
should be seeing at least 10 to 12 touches every week. I do question
whether or not the Browns will commit to him - especially with
a first-time play-caller - and not occasionally forget about him.
It should be noted he has produced like an RB2 (or even RB1) in
the two games he has seen at least a quarter of the touches in
the Cleveland backfield.
Denver made its decision about the backfield after Week 1 and
it is hard to argue with the results thus far, as Lindsay has
been everything the Broncos and fantasy owners could have hoped
for from an undrafted free agent. The one problem for any Denver
running back moving forward will be the absence of C Matt Paradis,
who had emerged as one of the top pivots in the league prior to
suffering a season-ending leg injury in Week 9. Lindsay was making
a living on running up the middle throughout the first eight weeks
of the season, and it's probably not a coincidence his first sub-4.5
YPC game came in the same contest Paradis got hurt. Freeman will
probably return to the same 1B role he had prior to his ankle
injury, but the Broncos have given Lindsay a bigger piece of the
pie in every game (aside from the one in which Lindsay was ejected
in Week 3).
Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, Riddick's return dramatically
cut into Johnson's workload in Week 9 - just like in every other
week Riddick has been healthy enough to play. Johnson's owners
can take some solace in the fact the rookie has started to steal
more work from Blount, but it's hard to imagine Johnson taking
over this backfield before the end of the season - despite the
fact it's hard to understand why OC Jim Bob Cooter feels as if
Riddick and Blount bring something special to this offense. The
trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles should lock Riddick into a
fairly stable role as Matthew Stafford's favorite short-area target.
Johnson will be another in a long line of running backs we'll
discuss this week who will likely need positive game script moving
forward - assuming Riddick stays healthy - to reach his ceiling
for however long he is stuck in this committee.
HC Mike McCarthy's running back usage this season has been curious
at best and deplorable at worst. At least the Packers did themselves
a favor by removing Montgomery from the mix, as they were not
using his best asset (as a mismatch out of the backfield in the
passing game). Jones' playing time and workload has spiked as
expected following the bye, but his owners must now wonder if
his costly fumble in Week 9 will make McCarthy reconsider things.
(Williams has yet to fumble in 258 career touches.) McCarthy continues
to stand by the notion each of his backs gives his offense something
different and has long suggested he wants to run the ball more
often, but it needs to be pointed out that Todd Gurley has 32
more touches himself than the 187 that Green Bay backs have. It
would be one thing if the Packers weren't having success running
the ball, but Jones' 6.0 YPC is a half-yard better than last year
and Williams' 3.8 YPC is two-tenths of a point better. While Jones
is the common-sense choice moving forward, it is just as likely
McCarthy decides to put him in the doghouse in the near future.
HC Bill O'Brien has repeatedly said Miller is a feature back.
The table above would seem to reinforce that, although it appears
O'Brien doesn't mind splitting up the work if Miller isn't "hot"
in a given game. It's been that way for the majority of time Miller
has been in Houston, and it probably won't change in 2018 unless
D'Onta Foreman can find the same form he had prior to last year's
Achilles' injury. With a mobile quarterback (Deshaun Watson) in
place and a commitment to running the ball (O'Brien's offenses
have ranked sixth or higher in attempts in four of the last five
seasons), Houston is ripe to serve as a home for an elite fantasy
back if it can ever build an above-average offensive line. That
is unlikely to happen again this year, and the upcoming schedule
(Redskins and Titans immediately after the Week 10 bye, Eagles
in Week 16) isn't going to help owners who are hoping a Texan
running back can be a key cog in a fantasy-title run.
Mack did not waste time making an impact once his hamstring healed,
but now he appears to be dealing with a foot issue. It is also
worth noting his "breakout" occurred against a trio
of teams unable to take advantage of a questionable Colts' defense
(Jets, Bills and Raiders) prior to their Week 9 bye. The second
half of the schedule promises to be a little bit more challenging,
highlighted by two games against the Jaguars as well as meetings
with the Titans and Texans over the next five weeks. As such,
it wouldn't come as a complete shock if Hines ends up being the
most valuable back of the bunch for the remainder of the season,
especially considering how much of a question mark Mack's durability
appears to be.
Although he could probably care less about what his fantasy owners
think, Fournette is already entering a critical time of his career
in terms of his public perception. Remain healthy for the rest
of the season and play like the fourth overall pick in 2017 and
he can make a lot of people forget about what has been a rough
start to his career from a durability perspective. On the other
hand, he'll probably need three straight years of 16-game seasons
beginning in 2019 to ditch the "injury-prone" tag if
he succumbs to injury again this year. But there's little question
Jacksonville sees him as the piece that makes everything go. While
he will likely be eased into things in Week 10, it seems reasonable
he'll be featured after that (getting occasional help in the passing
game from Yeldon) if he can finish his first game of the season
this weekend. If he does that, it would be a minor surprise if
he doesn't see 70 percent of the backfield's touches moving forward.
Gore is in the relatively odd position of being a player who
leads his backfield in touches but has virtually no chance of
producing meaningful fantasy stats despite the fact his 4.2 YPC
is his best mark since leaving San Francisco in 2014. HC Adam
Gase appears to be convinced Drake is more effective in smaller
doses. Whether Gase is still under the impression Drake lacks
durability (he has been healthy for the better part of the last
two seasons but struggled to stay on the field in college) is
a question only he can answer, but that would be a semi-logical
explanation. It seems pretty clear the Dolphins are committed
to a split backfield regardless of the answer, so unless Gore
misses a game for the first time since 2010, there's not much
reason to expect the current usage of either back to change. Drake
figures to be a risky flex play in games Miami should win (which
are going to be few and far between with Brock Osweiler starting)
and a good bet for RB2 production in neutral/negative game scripts.
Cook saw 28 snaps to Murray's 22 in Week 9, suggesting the Vikings
were pretty confident he was fully healthy and didn't need the
bye to complete his recovery. When he's been healthy and able
to play most of the game, it is clear Minnesota wants to feature
him - as it should. The only question moving forward will be whether
the Vikings want to reduce the chances of him getting hurt again
and keep the workload split in the neighborhood of 14:11 like
it was last week or if OC John DeFilippo is ready to unleash the
beast. I think Minnesota will eventually opt for the latter, meaning
the first two weeks of the season should be an accurate representation
of what to expect moving forward.
As much as owners may want to believe White is on the verge of
becoming a featured back, that is not the Patriot Way. Fortunately
for his owners, his involvement in the passing game (four games
of at least 10 targets and an average of 6.8 catches) is such
where he doesn't need a heavy workload. And while many compared
Michel to Alvin Kamara during the draft process, he has essentially
assumed the Mark Ingram role in this offense with Burkhead sidelined.
Michel is expected back this week, which means owners of White
and/or Michel have games against the Titans and Jets sandwiching
New England's Week 11 bye before they need to worry about Burkhead
potentially wrecking their plans. That's a big if, although the
Patriots' lack of moves at running back after Michel got hurt
suggests they are confident about Burkhead's return. While that
occurrence would ding Michel's slightly, it would have a major
impact on White if the first three weeks of the season are any
indication. That's not to say White is a sell-high (because there
is no guarantee Burkhead comes back), but it is notable White's
run of prodigious fantasy point totals didn't start until after
Burkhead went on IR.
While Kamara's fantasy owners probably wouldn't mind another
short-term absence from Ingram, Week 9 was a good reminder of
how important HC Sean Payton thinks his second-year back is (touch
advantage of 23:10). Such a large disparity should not be the
expectation going forward, but I tend to believe Week 9 happened
because Payton didn't want his most dynamic backfield playmaker
off the field very often against an opponent with an offense as
good as his. The Saints shouldn't need to use a heavy dose of
Kamara in two of the next four weeks (Philadelphia in Week 11
and Atlanta in Week 12 being the exceptions), but his owners probably
could not ask for a much better fantasy playoff slate than what
he will have (Buccaneers, Panthers and Steelers), as he has already
torn up one of the defenses (Tampa Bay in Week 1) and the other
two are good enough offensively to promote a shootout.
For the most part, Crowell's workload has been pretty consistent
(at least 14 touches in five straight games and seven of his last
eight). He, however, has not been. Some of that falls on his shoulders,
and some of it is a reflection of how much more work the Jets
have to do on offense. While Crowell is technically the power
back in this offense and will not completely fade away, Powell
was seeing more snaps and touches prior to his injury. The coaching
staff thought enough of McGuire during the preseason to contemplate
cutting Powell, so it seems reasonable to believe McGuire will
not only step into Powell's role in the offense but emerge as
the unquestioned lead back. To that end, McGuire enjoyed a 36-23
advantage in snaps in Week 9 in his season debut after spending
eight weeks on IR with a foot injury. With so little working on
offense and plenty of difficult matchups awaiting (New England
in Week 12, Tennessee in Week 13, Houston in Week 15 and Green
Bay in Week 16), Crowell figures to fade into fantasy obscurity
sooner than later and McGuire figures to see a lot of work as
a receiver out of the backfield.
Outside of a one-game hiccup against the Colts in Week 8, the
Raiders have scored one offensive touchdown over their last four
outings. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Oakland's offense went
into the tank right at the same time Lynch stopped being productive.
Martin has more or less assumed Lynch's workload since the latter
landed on IR and actually performed well from an efficiency perspective,
but the offense can't sustain drives anymore and appeared to pack
it in during a Week 9 rout against the 49ers. A Raiders' running
back hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3, so Martin owners
can't feel good about the possibility he will be able to deliver
more than one or two the rest of the way. HC Jon Gruden appears
to like Martin too much to cut his playing time in favor of the
more dynamic Richard, although the latter has proven himself to
be one of Oakland's best offensive weapons out of the backfield
(on pace for 86 catches). The Raiders will probably continue to
live under the belief they can establish the run for the remainder
of the season (keeping Martin in play as a flex option), but Richard
will almost certainly be the better fantasy play almost every
week.
It takes only a quick glance to see how much adversity the Eagles
have dealt with in the backfield this season, so we may not have
seen an example of how this backfield is going to play out quite
yet. It does appear Clement is on the verge of getting bumped
from the committee (likely in favor of Sproles, who is expected
to return from a hamstring injury in Week 10). Since Philadelphia
seemed to embrace Ajayi as its lead back before his ACL tear and
Adams is the only player on the roster remotely close to Ajayi,
it makes sense that the undrafted free agent's Week 8 effort (61
yards on nine carries) could be a sign of things to come. Regardless,
it's hard to imagine any scenario in which Smallwood isn't on
the field and seeing 10-plus touches every game. One thing to
keep in mind: the addition of Golden Tate and return of Sproles
will almost certainly put an end to whatever limited volume Clement
and Smallwood were seeing in the passing game.
While not a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention,
the first thing that stands out in the table above is the massive
volume the Seahawks running backs are seeing. Since taking two
weeks to find their identity at the beginning of the season, the
Seahawks' backfield has 32 or more touches in every game. Carson
hasn't been a workhorse in terms of the percentage of his workload,
but he has been one in terms of actual workload. Unfortunately,
his take-no-prisoners running style has already cost him one game
and part of another. Massive volume and Carson's durability are
two reasons why I identified Davis as a potential
league-winning option a couple of weeks ago. And given Davis'
own track record when it comes to injuries, they are the same
reasons why owners would be wise to find a spot on their bench
for Penny in deeper leagues. Assuming Carson (groin, hip) can
return from his most recent setback and stay healthy, Seattle
has already shown how it wants to deploy its backfield resources.
If Carson is dogged by his current ailment for the foreseeable
future, I would expect Davis to slide into Carson's spot as a
20-touch back and Penny to move into Davis' current role.
As a result of Mostert's season-ending arm injury in Week 9 and
no other running back (outside of FB Kyle Juszczyk) on the roster
behind Breida and Morris, San Francisco may have no choice but
to see how much longer Breida can fight through his ankle injury
(unless San Francisco decides to add another back before or during
its Week 11 bye). Morris has shown next to nothing this season,
but the situation almost dictates he will play at least a quarter
of the snaps moving forward. Juszczyk should be in the mix for
10-15 percent, so owners should be looking for nearly 60 percent
of the work in the backfield to go to Breida, meaning he can return
to RB2 value if he can get even moderately healthy down the stretch.
In theory, Barber has been a feature back this season. His 69
rushing yards against what turned out to be a stout Saints' run
defense in Week 1 looks pretty good now. Similar to what I said
about Frank Gore above, however, the Tampa Bay backfield (Barber
in particular) is the rare situation in which a back can average
14 touches and be considered the lead back, yet be nearly useless
in fantasy. Besides poor line play, the biggest problems have
been volume and game script, which often go hand-in-hand. While
some teams can make up for a few of these issues by getting their
backs involved in the passing game, Tampa Bay is in the rare position
of having so many good pass-catchers (and are so often playing
from behind) that making sure Barber and/or Jones are getting
their touches isn't a high priority. Barbara figures to finish
the season with 200-plus touches and remain the starter, but the
combination of all the aforementioned problems and an unfavorable
schedule should render this backfield almost useless for fantasy
owners.
Tennessee Titans
Good teams typically use the bye to self-scout and reevaluate,
and that is exactly what I saw from Tennessee on Monday night.
After trying to pound a square peg into a round hole with Henry
for half the season, the Titans featured Lewis and the result
was a season-high team point total (28) against a good defense
on the road. One game does not a trend make, but I can't imagine
why Tennessee would go away from featuring Lewis after he has
averaged 138.5 total yards over the last two games. The Titans
undoubtedly want to keep Henry involved somehow - likely realizing
they need different personnel (and possibly a different scheme)
to accentuate what he does well - but owners should expect a strong
finish for Lewis since he is not only the team's best receiving
threat of the backfield but also the runner most capable of producing
behind Tennessee's overrated offensive line.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.