Offseason reports can often be the equivalent of having a candy
bar or bag of chips 30 minutes before a meal. We know they aren't
good for us, but we can't help ourselves. Beat writers can sometimes
get too close to the team and feed us optimism about the team when
what we need is honesty and realism. However, when they do their
jobs well, they are often the only "inside" source we
have as fantasy owners who can unearth a valuable nugget or spot
a trend during the spring that proves to be prophetic. Given the
wealth of information at our disposal nowadays, we have to sift
through a lot of the former in order to get to the latter.
Each year, I attempt to canvas the NFL landscape once offseason
workouts have concluded, in hopes I can make an observation or
two of my own that nudges readers in the right direction. As I
have done since I started beginning "Early Observations"
in 2009, I’m going to try to provide a respectable opinion
on how the offseason buzz from all 32 teams translates to fantasy
owners over the next two weeks. This week, we’ll take a
look at what is buzzworthy in the AFC: Note: All ADPs are for 12-team
leagues courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator as of June 25
Baltimore
Perhaps no team needed to address one position group more than
the Ravens needed to overhaul their pass-catching corps. And address
it they did. Baltimore selected two of the draft's top-five tight
end prospects in Hayden
Hurst and Mark
Andrews, likely hoping it could find a young duo capable of
emulating the contributions Ben
Watson and Dennis Pitta once made, albeit never at the same
time. For the purposes of next season, however, owners may be
able to begin and end their search for fantasy contributors from
the Ravens' passing game to one player: Michael
Crabtree. There's little question Baltimore should get better
receiver play this year than it did in 2017 with John
Brown and Willie
Snead also joining the fray, but Joe
Flacco made it pretty clear who he believes will be his
go-to guy this season. "(Crabtree's) the guy, because he’s
got a little different way that he runs the routes. He’s really
crafty with it, and he knows when to break away from guys and
how to get open," Flacco told reporters in late May.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: No
team seems to love recycling veteran receivers more than the Ravens,
who have enjoyed a fair amount of success doing so recently with
Steve Smith and Mike
Wallace. Jeremy
Maclin did not fare so well in 2017, although we'll probably
never know how much injuries were to blame for that. It can easily
be argued Crabtree was the lead receiver in Oakland last season
despite the presence of Amari
Cooper, so it's not a stretch to imagine him improving on
his 58 catches and 618 receiving yards from last year. The Texas
Tech product also scored at least eight times in each of his three
years as a Raider, so there's little reason to think he can't
push for that many again in an offense in which he will clearly
be the featured receiver. The fact Flacco seems to be meshing
with Crabtree so early is obviously a good sign, and it's important
to remember the 30-year-old has a game that ages well (built on
route-running and physicality and less on speed and quickness).
One of the primary concerns with Crabtree are his drops, but this
is another case in which Baltimore will almost certainly keep
feeding him since there really aren't any other challengers to
his lead-dog throne. Crabtree should be enough of a target hog
to be a solid WR3, although a challenging schedule could make
weekly consistency a bit of an issue. His current 6.06 ADP puts
him in low-end WR2/high-end WR3 range, which sounds about right.
Buffalo
You'd never know it based on popular opinion and by looking at
their current depth chart, but the Bills were in the playoffs
last year. (Cue the Music City Miracle for the previous last time
that happened.) Making matters worse, LeSean
McCoy will turn 30 next month and be running behind a vastly
different offensive line, Kelvin
Benjamin is coming off a knee injury, Zay
Jones underwent knee surgery in May and Charles
Clay is almost always battling some kind of knee ailment.
Let's not forget the quarterback situation either; AJ
McCarron is a career backup, Nathan
Peterman is the second-year guy people love to hate because
he threw five interceptions in his NFL debut and Josh
Allen was perhaps the draft's most polarizing quarterback
prospect. And it is that position where I will focus my energy
with the Bills. With all the quarterbacks starting essentially
from the same point under new OC Ryan Daboll, Peterman
has reportedly outperformed McCarron and is "a serious
contender" for the starting job.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: I'm
not going to sugarcoat it; the chances a member of Buffalo's offense
is a key reason fantasy teams wins league championships this year
are slim. Clay would seem to be the most likely of the bunch (outside
of maybe McCoy, who I will rank lower than most) to do so, and
to his credit, he is making
some changes in order to be available more often. It's going
to be extremely difficult for any of the signal-callers to enjoy
much fantasy success if a field-stretching wideout doesn't emerge.
At the moment, Andre
Holmes may be the closest thing they have to that. (Malachi
Dupre is a wild-card to keep an eye on, however.) Benjamin
and Jones are both short-to-intermediate options, while Clay has
typically done most of his work within 10 yards of the line of
scrimmage. Although Allen did draw some loose Cam
Newton draft comps and his athleticism would seem to make
him the smart choice to make this offense more dynamic, it would
be a mistake to hand the keys over to the No. 7 overall pick until
late in 2018 - if at all this season. First of all, he's not the
same kind of game-breaking runner Newton is. More importantly,
rushing a youngster into a lineup with below-average weapons and
what figures to be a questionable offensive line is a recipe for
disaster. If/when Allen gets the nod, he may find himself on the
low-end fantasy QB2 radar.
Joe Mixon: When terms like "bell-cow"
get thrown around, fantasy owners take notice.
Cincinnati
Somehow, Brandon
LaFell can still call himself a NFL starting receiver. How
much longer that will be the case with the Bengals should be in
some serious doubt, especially considering Cincinnati spent the
No. 9 overall pick on John
Ross in 2017. As most NFL observers know, pre-draft shoulder
surgery kept Ross from getting on the field until early August
while a knee as well as another shoulder injury after that pretty
much ended whatever small chance he had of making up for his lone
offensive touch last year - a fumble on a Week 2 rushing attempt.
Ross
is healthy this time around, which has allowed him to resume
his regular lifting regimen. He is also determined to make up
for last year, enlisting the help of former Bengal T.J. Houshmandzadeh
to help him with the finer
aspects of being a receiver as well as provide him a much-needed
confidence boost. Andy
Dalton has been impressed by what
he has seen from Ross so far: “He looks good. Completely different
than he did last year. It looks like he’s getting back to where
he was. He looks smooth. Everyone knew he was fast, but he’s not
just a straight-line guy. He can stop and go. He’s got some shiftiness
to him. Last year, he was trying to learn and rehab his shoulder
at the same time. But seeing it on paper and actually going out
and doing it are two completely different things. … He’s catching
the ball really well. He’s going up and getting it the little
we’ve done so far.”
Fantasy owners waited all of last season for Joe
Mixon to be handed the feature-back role. Some waited patiently
for 10 weeks, only to watch him lose some carries to Jeremy
Hill for the first half of the season and run behind one of
the worst offensive lines in the league. His shot at full-time
duty came in Week 11 and owners were giddy in Week 12 when he
torched Cleveland, but a Week 13 concussion and Week 16 ankle
injury pretty much served as the closing act on what was a disappointing
season. Cincinnati has taken strides to improve the front five,
while Mixon appears to be dropping
the NFL freshman 15. However, the biggest fantasy news regarding
the second-year pro was a nugget from director of player personnel
Duke Tobin, who told Bengals.com writer Geoff Hobson that Mixon
will be the bell-cow this season with Giovani
Bernard mixing in.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Until the Bengals find a way to inject
adamantium into his skeleton, the question is going to remain
whether or not a 190-pound receiver like Ross can be durable enough
to be a consistent playmaker in fantasy. Durability has rarely
ever been one of his strong suits anyway. The attraction to Ross
is that he is in many ways a young DeSean Jackson, albeit a receiver
who is a better route-runner now than Jackson was in his early
days with the Eagles. The University of Washington product is
going undrafted for reasons that are easy to understand, but would
it surprise anyone if he is able to rival Tyler Lockett's production
from his early years in Seattle? If he can stay on the field in
2018, I would be willing to bet good money he's going to be useful
in fantasy. Assuming I hear what I want to hear during training
camp, I will not hesitate to make him one of my final draft picks
in the majority of my leagues.
Cincinnati hoped it could replace former LT Andrew Whitworth
and LG Kevin Zeitler in-house. It thought wrong. The Bengals sought
to fix those problem spots by trading for oft-injured (as of the
last two seasons anyway) Bills LT Cordy Glenn and using a first-round
pick on C Billy Price. Both players should be huge upgrades over
the 2017 starters at those positions and should help Mixon get
closer to his ceiling. Whether or not the same coaching staff
that frustratingly fed Hill a handful of unproductive touches
for the first half of last season at Mixon's expense will now
turn everything over to the second-year back is worth debating,
but it is worth noting he is the only back on the roster who possesses
the prototypical size (6-1, 225-ish) to be a three-down back.
Mixon's 2.12 ADP in PPR leagues does a decent job of factoring
in his upside versus the unpredictability of whatever new hijinks
the Bengals' coaching staff might have in mind, but I'm not sure
how crazy I am about Mixon coming off the board before the likes
of Alex
Collins (4.01) and Kenyan
Drake (4.07). He's a RB2 with obvious RB1 upside, but a player
I will wait to cast final judgment on until next month when I've
had a chance to review his situation in more detail prior to my
first Big Board release.
Cleveland
Early reports suggest No. 1 overall pick Baker
Mayfield "did
not look ready to compete with" and has a "long
way to go to unseat" Tyrod
Taylor. Then again, much of the intrigue with the Browns from
a fantasy perspective in 2018 doesn't center on the identity of
the starting quarterback nearly as much as it does on how the
winner of that "competition" affects the players around him. So,
since quarterback appears to be a non-story at this point and
Josh
Gordon has stayed out of the news this offseason, we'll focus
our energy on new teammate Jarvis
Landry, who was handed a five-year contract with $47 million
guaranteed about a month after he was acquired from Miami. Considered
primarily a slot receiver with the Dolphins, it appears as though
new OC Todd Haley is either willing or interested in allowing
Landry to show
off his ability to work outside as well. Corey
Coleman, last year's presumptive top receiver, is in a much
different boat, hoping he is still seeing some regular playing
time when Week 1 rolls around. Antonio
Callaway is expected
to push him for the No. 3 job, although the rookie fourth-rounder's
campaign to do so was stalled due to a groin/thigh issue that
forced him to miss most of spring workouts.
The running back position in Cleveland has the potential to be
a serious source of fantasy production, but news on where Carlos
Hyde, Duke
Johnson and rookie Nick
Chubb stand has been limited at best. RB coach Freddie Kitchens
did offer an
ominous quote for fantasy owners recently though, telling
The Cleveland Plain-Dealer, "If they're (one of the backs) having
success (during a game), why would you change? It may be somebody
different week-to-week." However, since the Browns are flush with
potential studs this season, let's wrap up the Browns by talking
about David
Njoku, who is expected to be the
full-time starter at tight end this season. Why should owners
believe 2018 will be much different than 2017 for the 22-year-old?
1) It sure sounds like he will play more than 48 percent of the
snaps he did last year this season. 2) Second-year tight ends
usually make a fairly sizeable jump from their first year. 3)
Haley has long wanted a field-stretching tight end and was presumably
a big part of the push to get the Ladarius Green to Pittsburgh
a few years ago. Last but not least, HC Hue Jackson expects "a
big jump" from Njoku as well.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Depending on where certain fan and
fantasy owner allegiances lie, Landry could either be considered
either the most dependable/consistent option Cleveland has or
the third-most dangerous pass-catcher (from a talent perspective)
on the roster (behind Gordon and Njoku). If Gordon really has
his life straightened out after all, the passing game figures
to revolve around him. If not, Landry could push for 100 catches
again. What does seem pretty clear are the long odds he faces
in regards to scoring eight times again in 2018. Something else
that appears to be pretty clear? Coleman isn't moving past No.
3 on the depth chart, unless Gordon has a setback. If that happens
and Coleman stays healthy, look out. And that's part of the agony
(for fantasy owners) and ecstasy (for the Browns and their fans)
of this reconstructed receiving corps. Gordon's 3.06 ADP at the
moment in PPR formats is just too high for a player that hasn't
consistently flashed his 2013 form since … well …
2013. I can't figure out yet if Landry's 5.10 ADP is a reflection
of his production in Miami or a nice value based on the potential
for another off-field issue from Gordon. Coleman is unsurprisingly
going undrafted, even in 14-team leagues.
Njoku (13.06 ADP) is going after Tyler Eifert (12.12) on a daily
basis. I'd argue he has at least as much upside as George Kittle
(10.05), so I guess the implication I'm making is Njoku is being
undervalued by at least three rounds. The argument can be made
that no Taylor-led offense is probably going to support three
regular fantasy starters from the passing game (four if we include
Duke Johnson) and I would agree, especially when we consider the
fact Taylor has never had a pass-catcher exceed 60 receptions.
However, I would argue the public is probably way too high on
Gordon and probably a bit too high on Landry on what figures to
be a pretty balanced offense. And if Taylor cedes the job to Mayfield
in November or December, are we really going to trust a rookie's
ability to make four pass-catchers viable in fantasy? I didn't
think so.
Denver
Ask just about any serious fantasy player who the Broncos' running
back is right now and they'll say rookie Royce
Freeman. Ask two of the primary sources covering the team
on a regular basis (The Denver Post and 9News), and the answer
is Devontae
Booker. Mike
Klis of 9News reported in mid-May that Booker "figures to
be the lead back through the offseason and into training camp
with Freeman getting a chance to eventually become a 1B back."
Kyle
Fredrickson of The Denver Post took it one step further, suggesting
the Broncos will aim for even better production this fall with
likely a tailback-by-committee approach" in a backfield that should
feature "a heavy dose of Devontae Booker and a yet-to-be-determined
second option." HC Vance Joseph provided some fuel for the Freeman
hype train, however, telling ESPN's Jeff Legwold his rookie could
"absolutely"
put himself in the conversation to be the team’s lead back.
The Broncos likely knew from the moment they drafted Jake
Butt in the fifth round of the 2017 NFL Draft that he was
headed for a redshirt season after suffering a torn ACL a few
months earlier in Michigan's bowl game. He reportedly
feels great now and has the coaching staff believing Denver
may have a decent option at tight end for the first time since
Owen
Daniels in 2015. Joseph went so far as to say Butt will "be
a great addition to our offense."
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The
depth chart at running back can change several times throughout
the course of the season, especially if one back is running "hot."
So the fact Klis and Fredrickson both seem to be on the same page
about Booker going into camp does not mean Freeman or someone
else can't unseat him. But can we really justify a five-round
gap in PPR drafts between Freeman (5.08) - expected by most to
be the early-down banger in what figures to be a middling offense
- and Booker (10.10) - expected by most to be the third-down and
change-of-pace back - in what may be a committee for an offense
Musgrave
told 9News earlier this month will be a whole new offensive
system? Is Freeman's role anymore guaranteed than Chris
Thompson's (at his 7.02 ADP)? How about Marshawn
Lynch (7.08)? These are the types of questions owners need
to ask themselves over the summer. I won't deny Freeman is a common-sense
selection to be the best fantasy back in Denver, but the last
time he was worthy of being considered a featured back was in
2015 - the year before his season-ending knee injury that seemed
to rob him of his pre-injury explosiveness even during the 2017
campaign.
Unlike some of the recent prospects to enter the league, Butt
is not going to overwhelm defenders with his athleticism or make
too many highlight-worthy catches for the fans to drool over.
What he can do is get open and move the chains. Technically, he
is entering his first season as a pro, but I'm not sure he should
be lumped in with the "rookie tight ends don't/can't produce"
crowd. His one season with the team has to be a good thing for
him hitting the ground running, right? That's not to say he's
going to be a regular fantasy starter in 2018, but I sure wouldn't
hesitate pulling the trigger on him in leagues where I could use
(and can afford to stash) a TE2 with decent upside. Jeff Heuerman
and Austin Traylor may appear on the depth chart before him now,
but that's far from an impossible hill to climb. While Butt probably
will go undrafted in most leagues, any scoring system that gives
tight ends 1.5 points for every catch should consider him late.
A 50-catch season may be too much to ask, but I think that is
the kind of upside we are talking about here.
Houston
Since Deshaun
Watson has been limited (although his recovery from an ACL
tear seems to be ahead of schedule) and D'Onta Foreman is questionable
for the start of the season (and therefore hasn't been able to
practice yet) coming off his Achilles' injury, all that is really
left to talk about with the Texans is at receiver. Will
Fuller underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in January and
has made a full recovery, and despite some talk to the contrary,
he's expected to play
a huge part in Houston's offense this season. Meanwhile, the
Texans have made multiple investments in trying to finding a capable
slot receiver in recent years, among the more notable spending
a 2016 third-round pick on Braxton
Miller as well as signing Bruce
Ellington last summer. Early reports seem to suggest Houston
may have found its man when it drafted Keke
Coutee in the fourth round this spring. Coutee reportedly
ran sharp routes and caught the football easily in minicamp, impressing
DeAndre
Hopkins along the way. "He's only getting better. He's always
hanging around, seeing what I'm doing in between periods, asking
me questions. The guy can play football. That's going to take
care of itself," Hopkins
told The Houston Chronicle.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Few,
if any, people question that Hopkins is the top option in this
offense and a top-five receiver in the league. Fuller took the
NFL world by storm over a four-game period after returning from
an early August collarbone injury that cost him Weeks 1-3. In
those four games he played with Watson, Fuller played like a fantasy
WR1. In the six games he didn't, he wasn't worthy of starting.
(Here's
the proof.) One would have to assume Watson is going to play
more than seven games and make more than six starts this year,
but Fuller hasn't proved to be very durable at the NFL level yet
and still isn't really built to handle the grind (6-0, 185) even
though he is entering his third season. Early drafters don't seem
to be factoring in his injury history, the likelihood of him getting
hurt again or his ridiculous TD rate (one score every 1.86 catches)
with Watson into their rankings, as his ADP currently stands at
6.10 - ahead of the likes of Sammy
Watkins (7.04), Emmanuel
Sanders (7.12) and Robert
Woods (8.02). That's just too high, folks.
We have yet to see the Texans be able to make more than two receivers
viable in fantasy at the same time, so Coutee may have to wait
for a bit to make an impact on this offense. When Houston made
the pick to get the Texas Tech receiver, I initially thought it
was as much about giving the team some protection against another
Fuller injury as it was about adding competition in the slot.
I still believe that to be the case somewhat, and I think whatever
consistent fantasy value Coutee has in 2018 will come if/when
Fuller gets hurt.
Indianapolis
The NFL world was abuzz with excitement on June 12 when video
was released showing Andrew
Luck throwing the ball. (It turns out it was a high school
or college ball, although Luck later told the media he had thrown
a NFL ball - the "Duke" - for about two weeks prior to participating
on a limited basis during mandatory minicamp.) Naturally, team
owner Jim Irsay chimed in and said Luck "will
not have any limitations when training camp opens," which
sounds remarkably similar to his
optimistic quotes last year. But whereas Luck was pretty much
silent last year, he seems pretty upbeat this time around. “The
pain is gone, and it’s going to stay that way. My body doesn’t
revolt, in a sense, to new things I ask," Luck
told reporters at minicamp. The former No. 1 overall pick's
frame is also considerably bigger, suggesting he has been pain-free
for a while and able to put in a substantial amount of time in
the weight room.
If it's the summer, it must be time for another season in which
owners hope Eric
Ebron can fulfill his potential. Days after the team locked
the free-agent tight end up to a two-year contract in March, new
HC Frank Reich hinted Ebron was "an
elite tight end" and likened putting him on the backside against
man coverage to clearing out one side of the court for LeBron
James. The praise was still flowing into mid-June, when The Indianapolis
Star called him "among
the most impressive Colts this offseason" and Reich praised
his intelligence. To that end, Indianapolis lined him up about
everywhere except tailback during offseason work.
Nyheim
Hines created his own buzz during the spring as well. Reich
complimented the rookie's intelligence as well and called his
pass-catching skills "very
impressive" on the first day of rookie minicamp. He served
as the team's primary
kick returner in OTAs and wrapped up the offseason trifecta,
as he was among the most
active players during the spring and summer. So active, in
fact, new OC Nick Sirianni said that Hines reminded him "a bit"
of Dexter McCluster, who he worked with in Kansas City. (Perhaps
I could have left that last part out; I know a few of you have
been permanently scarred by McCluster.)
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Just like last year, Luck's presence
will determine whether this is a team picking in the top 10 in
the draft again or if it has a legit chance to crack .500. He
is currently the 14th quarterback coming off the board on average,
which seems about right given the injury questions and the relative
lack of exciting proven playmakers surrounding him. With that
said, I'm not sure Luck (10.09 ADP) should be going after Matt
Ryan (9.11) or Jared Goff (9.12).
The fantasy public has apparently tired of Ebron (or they don't
believe Reich) because they aren't even drafting him in PPR leagues.
It's understandable for people to feel that way, but we're looking
at a tight end - for all of his faults - who hasn't finished lower
than TE14 in the last three seasons. Is he going to be the next
Zach Ertz (the last athletic tight end Reich worked with)? Probably
not. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Colts use him the same
way. Indianapolis (and Luck in particular) loves Jack Doyle, so
it would be a mild upset if Ebron outscores him in fantasy. But
a top-20 finish among tight ends is more than doable for a team
that will utilize a lot of two-tight sets and has made clear it
intends on using him to get advantageous matchups.
Let's be clear about something: Hines should be a better Pro
than McCluster ever was. The Colts seem to understand what he
is - a part-time complementary weapon capable of creating confusion
and exploiting a matchup if the defense doesn't show him enough
respect to assign a safety or fourth cornerback to him. He should
have a nice 10-touch role in the offense as a rookie, but it seems
hard to believe he will be consistent enough to use on a weekly
basis. What his presence figures to do, however, is rob Marlon
Mack of any potential he had to be a PPR stud.
Jacksonville
There was a time not too long ago where the thought of including
Austin
Seferian-Jenkins in a "buzz" piece would have elicited an
eye-roll and usually been followed by some kind of bad news. As
we approach the 2018 season, however, it appears ASJ has established
a quick
connection with Blake
Bortles and figures to be a regular target on downfield throws
- a sight that wasn't typically seen during his only season with
the New York Jets last year. The Jaguars' website suggested a
major theme of minicamp was Seferian-Jenkins's potential
impact on offense. Bortles seems to agree: "Throughout this
whole OTA process, (Seferian-Jenkins was) good. … He asks a ton
of questions, and it’s pretty easy that when you come and watch
a practice, you can see how big of an impact he’s (made) and how
much he’s going to help us out."
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Outside of one or two times a season,
Marcedes Lewis had pretty much become a forgotten man in the Jaguars'
passing game. (He didn't see more than last year's 48 targets
in any of his final five seasons in Jacksonville.) Even with what's
become a crowded receiving corps in Duval County, Seferian-Jenkins
could (and should) push for 70-80. He's currently the 17th tight
end off the board per ADP (14.04), but I'd argue he needs to go
about five spots and probably at least two rounds higher. ASJ
is a three-down tight end who was miscast as a chain-moving red
zone tight end for whatever reason in New York, but he has always
been an above-average athlete for the position, so getting (and
being successful) downfield shouldn't be a problem for him.
Kansas
City
Perhaps never in the history of the NFL has a game in which a
quarterback went 22-of-35 for 284 yards and no touchdowns impressed
any coach more than Pat Mahomes impressed Andy Reid in Week 17
last season. (Yes, there's little bit of sarcasm in that statement.)
The fact of the matter is the 2017 rookie understood his role
last year and consistently wowed teammates and coaches alike with
his incredible talent and ability
to master the 40-second process during practice. Perhaps it
should come as no surprise then that Reid was impressed again
by his new quarterback's ability to react
and even beat the blitz during spring and summer practices.
Receivers playing for their third team in three years usually
don't land three-year contracts worth $48 million. Most of those
receivers aren't Sammy
Watkins. For the first time since his rookie season, the No.
4 overall pick in the 2014 draft only missed one game in 2017
(a meaningless Week 17), which was news in itself. The Rams wanted
to keep him and he was reportedly the top receiver on the free-agent
wish list of the Bears and Broncos, but he ultimately decided
on the Chiefs to
grow together with a young quarterback. Kansas City appears
ready to make him earn his money, allowing him to work
at each of the different receiver spots - including the slot.
At least in the early going, it appears as if Watkins' foresight
is paying off, as Chiefs.com beat reporter B.J. Kissel suggests
the
connection between Mahomes and Watkins is real.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It's always a bit risky to put much
faith into a prospect with one regular-season game under his belt
no matter how talented he is, but it gets easier to do once we
consider how quarterback-friendly Reid's offenses have been over
the years and talented of a supporting cast Mahomes has. Few teams
have two cornerbacks capable of sticking with Tyreek Hill and
Watkins, and the few that do probably aren't going to have an
answer for Travis Kelce. Currently viewed as the QB16 in early
drafts with an ADP of 11.05, Mahomes feels like a ridiculous bargain.
I would not bat an eye if he goes earlier than Jimmy Garoppolo
(8.12), which he probably should, or Matt Ryan (9.11), who feels
like he has settled in as more of a mid-range QB2.
Early drafters seem to love themselves some Hill (3.07 ADP),
as he is getting drafted as the 13th receiver on average. Is he
even Mahomes' top option? Or even his favorite receiver? The fact
is we can't know for sure, which makes Watkins' 7.04 ADP (32nd
receiver off the board) another huge value pick. The near four-round
difference between the two receivers only makes sense if Mahomes
essentially ignores a $16 million/year receiver who he seems to
be bonding with and leans on Hill and Kelce - just like Alex Smith
did (obviously before Watkins' arrival). While Hill may be the
best deep threat in the league, Watkins isn't very far behind.
The most likely outcome is Watkins' presence drags down Hill and
Kelce's production a bit, but it is entirely conceivable Watkins
overtakes Hill as the top receiver in Kansas City. I would put
heavy odds on Watkins' living up to his fantasy draft status over
Hill doing the same.
Los
Angeles Chargers
Hunter
Henry was poised to become an upper-tier if not elite tight
end in 2018. Assuming Antonio
Gates does not return, the 23-year-old's season-ending ACL
injury means there are 121 targets from last season that need
to be replaced just from the tight end position. Virgil
Green was added in free agency before Henry's injury to be
a backup, but we've seen that movie before and it does not end
with him breaking out. The two primary beneficiaries figure to
be Melvin
Gordon and Mike
Williams, based on early reports. Why Gordon? OC Ken
Whisenhunt said so himself. "We can do some different things
because Melvin has become such a good receiver out of the backfield.
And that's not something that you saw from him in college. Not
that he couldn't do it; they just didn't throw him the ball."
Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson spelled it out even more clearly:
"Truly, that's the first thing I thought about when Hunter went
down, is Melvin is going to have to become a weapon in the passing
game. Hunter makes easy throws for Philip (Rivers) … Now somebody
has to pick up that role, and that can be Melvin."
While Gordon could get a modest bump up from his 79 targets last
season, the natural move for the Chargers is to utilize more three-wide
sets in order to get 2017 first-round pick Williams on the field
more often. ESPN's Eric
D. Williams suggested as much (at least the part about more
three-receiver sets), adding that Keenan
Allen would likely see an increase of action out of the slot.
Few teams have the ability or depth to plug their top receiver
in the slot to make room for two very athletic 6-4 receivers on
the perimeter (Tyrell
Williams being the other), either of which can high-point
the ball or beat his man deep.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It's hard to imagine Gordon seeing
less action in the passing game this year as a result of Henry's
absence. It also seems unlikely he's going to substantially exceed
the 79 targets or 57 receptions he had last season. He should,
however, be able to top 4.0 YPC for the first time in his career
with less men in the box and an offensive line that should be
the best he's played with since he was drafted in 2015. Even so,
Gordon doesn't feel like a league-winner. Nevertheless, he's the
kind of rock-solid RB1 who isn't often going to punish owners
for playing him. I have no qualms about his current 1.10 ADP.
It'd be nice to be able to make a stronger case for Mike Williams,
but he's still in a tough spot when it comes to getting a decent
target share. Assuming Tyrell Williams is named the starter opposite
Allen, Mike Williams will have need to be highly efficient when
the Chargers go three-wide. Allen will probably command at least
a 25 percent target share, while Gordon and Austin Ekeler will
combine for another 20 or so. Tyrell Williams should manage 15,
while Travis Benjamin should be good for at least 10. If we give
10 to Green as well, that leaves 20 for Mike Williams and every
other eligible pass-catcher on the roster. As most football fans
know, more than seven players usually catch passes during the
course of a season. In short, Mike Williams's current 11.06 ADP
may be a bit high barring an injury to a receiver in front of
him.
Miami
When Frank
Gore signed in late March, most people dismissed it as a 35-year-old
back going back home for one more year before retiring. When Miami
selected Kalen
Ballage in the fourth round of April's draft, most people
pointed to the fact he couldn't hold down the full-time gig at
Arizona State. There's no question Kenyan
Drake was fantastic down the stretch last season, but front
offices don't usually double up (free agency and the draft) at
a position unless they have some concern about the starter. Drake
struggled to stay healthy in college, and last year's 165 offensive
touches were easily the most he has amassed in any single season
since high school. Running backs coach Eric Studesville suggested
earlier this month he's not ready to name a starting running back
and Miami Herald beat writer Armando Salguero described the team's
backfield situation heading into training camp as a "competition
(and) not a coronation."
No one wants to hear about DeVante
Parker or how he looks in practice anymore, and that's OK.
While the Dolphins are talking
him up again this year (this time for his work ethic), they
have committed to a one-day-at-a-time
approach with him in 2018 after new coach Ben Johnson admitted
the team was making "giant claims" about him last summer. Instead,
the focus on the receiver group has turned to free-agent additions
of Danny
Amendola and Albert
Wilson. Salguero confidently suggested in late May (Ryan)
Tannehill to Amendola is "gonna
be a thing in 2018 assuming they stay healthy." The former
Patriot is also making
an impression with his leadership, per Andy Cohen from the
team's website. Meanwhile, Wilson has reportedly
made such a good impression that the team has decided he can
line up not only in the slot, but also on the boundary and in
the backfield.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Drake may very well come out the
winner in the backfield competition, but it would be a mistake
to assume he's going to pile up 250 carries while Gore and Ballage
stand on the sideline. Maybe Gore was brought in for a swan song
and to mentor the other backs regarding the hard work and approach
that is necessary to have staying power in the league, but when
has Gore ever not exceeded expectations? At the very least, Gore
seems almost certain to steal about 30 percent of the offensive
touches, so whether Drake lives up to his fourth-round ADP figures
to come down to whether or not Ballage is a significant contributor
in the passing game. RB22 seems a little low for a player of Drake's
talent, but it does a good job of capturing just how much risk
he carries into this season with quality talent nipping at his
heels.
One of the more intriguing questions that owners want an answer
to before draft season really takes off is how Miami intends to
use its newfound depth at wide receiver. The most common-sense
approach would be to utilize more four-wide sets than just about
every team in the league to clear out the box for Drake &
Co., mask the team's deficiencies on the offensive line and allow
Amendola and Wilson to exploit matchups in the slot, replacing
the 161 targets left behind by Jarvis Landry. The problem with
that is Mike Gesicki presents more matchup problems than either
of them and should also see ample time in the slot, so either
Amendola or Wilson could struggle for playing time unless the
other one gets hurt early. The problem is Amendola is getting
$6 million per year and Wilson signed for average of $8 million
per season - the same as Kenny Stills - AND the team has already
picked up Parker's fifth-year option for the 2019 season worth
$9.4 million. The best guess I have now is that Parker and Stills
remain locked into starting jobs with Amendola being a fixture
in the slot, while Wilson plays a bit of jack-of-all-trades role
and fills in at any of the three receiver spots anytime one of
the "starters" needs a blow. Veteran owners know Amendola
is an injury risk, so Wilson may not have to wait long. Still,
the former Patriot has a chance to be a huge value in fantasy
and is a potential steal, even at his current 12.07 ADP.
New
England
If the Patriots' backfield wasn't always such a bountiful source
of production, then owners wouldn't spend so much time trying
to figure out what the latest reincarnation of the backfield means
for fantasy purposes. For the first time since Laurence Maroney
in 2006, New England used a first-round pick on a running back,
immediately causing some folks to question the sanity of the Patriots
and others to proclaim New England had found a back to be the
plus-version of Dion
Lewis while suggesting HC Bill Belichick kept an eye on what
old fried Sean Payton was doing down in New Orleans with Alvin
Kamara. Like most rookies (especially in New England), Sony
Michel has some
climbing to do.
With Julian
Edelman likely suspended for the first four games and Danny
Amendola in Miami, the door is wide open for another receiver
to take over in the slot in September. While there has been plenty
of chatter about Braxton
Berrios following in the footsteps of Wes Welker, Edelman
and Amendola, the most likely candidate to fill the void during
Edelman's absence is Jordan
Matthews, who has done most of his damage in the league inside.
To that end, Matthews seems to understand
the opportunity he has in front of him.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: As
much as current and prospective fantasy owners want Michel to
become the next Kamara (or even Lewis with more consistent volume),
there's very little evidence outside of draft capital to support
such a notion. For as good of a season as Lewis had in 2017, look
no further than here
to recall how much his production was inflated by two games without
Rex
Burkhead or James
White playing. There are actually 13 instances in which a
running back has exceeded 200 touches since Belichick took over
in 2000, although only three of those have come since 2010. The
key to remember with Belichick is that he has long seen running
backs and receivers as luxuries, which partially explains how
often the team uses the early draft picks to address both lines
and the secondary. While the use of a first-round pick on Michel
is certainly worth noting, it's hard to believe the rookie will
simply steal most of White's role or rob Burkhead of the 10 touches
per game he enjoyed last season. Is Michel the most complete back
with the most upside? Yes. Did that matter for Lewis? It didn’t
seem that way. One has to think Michel isn't going to ascend to
Lewis' role in the offense this season until he earns it. Even
for running backs, New England's offense is among the most nuanced
and difficult to learn. He may live up to his 4.10 ADP before
the end of the season, but he might not be doing it for the fantasy
team that drafted him in a lot of cases.
Matthews came cheap this offseason (one-year contract worth $1
million with $170,000 guaranteed), but unless New England decides
to feature Chris Hogan in the slot and gets some unexpected outside
receivers such as Kenny Britt and/or Philip Dorsett to make a
huge impression in camp, Matthews seems like he should be considered
the favorite to replace Edelman. As most veteran owners know,
the slot position in the Patriots' offense is an important one,
so even if he does nothing else but provide 80 percent of the
production Edelman typically does, he's worth drafting late and
using for the first month of the season. The good thing about
such a situation is that if he thrives, New England will find
a way to keep him on the field in a secondary role. Until we know
more about how the Patriots' depth chart is going to shake out,
Matthews should be owned in the majority of leagues.
Flattering words from the Jets RB coach:
"Elijah McGuire has the skill set to be a LaDainian Tomlinson."
New
York Jets
The Jets' hype machine is running pretty hot this season, and
it's not because fans think they are going to be a 10-win team
this season. New York cannot stop singing the praises of first-round
pick Sam
Darnold and seems convinced
he is going to be a star. However, he is going to be hard-pressed
to be relevant in fantasy this season, so we'll make the ever-so-subtle
transition to another player guaranteed to make noise this season.
Robby
Anderson? No. Isaiah
Crowell? Try again. Elijah
McGuire? Ding-ding-ding! Receiving praise that would make
Dolphins' coaches from last season blush when they were asked
about DeVante
Parker, McGuire "looks fantastic" and "has
the skill set to be a LaDainian Tomlinson if he was given
that opportunity," according to running backs coach Stump Mitchell.
"That’s not what presents itself to him at this particular point
in time," Mitchell continued. "But skill set, (McGuire) can do
it all. He can catch. He can run. He can run routes as a receiver.
He just happens to be here … and I’m glad we got him." Per Manish
Mehta of The New York Daily News, McGuire is expected to be the
Jets' third-down back this season.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It's one thing for a coach to be
supportive of a player and happy his team may have itself a steal.
It's all another thing to compare a third-string player to a Hall
of Famer and one of the best players to ever play at his position.
First of all, it raises the bar way too high for the fan base
and sets the player up for failure. It also makes a head coach/assistant
look/sound ridiculous, because if a reasonable facsimile of LT
is on the roster, he would not have played behind an aging Matt Forte and Bilal Powell last season, and he sure wouldn't be only
a third-down back behind Crowell this year. The last point I'll
make (but certainly not the last one I could make) is what exactly
is McGuire doing this offseason that Powell hasn’t done
in multiple games in previous years? Rant aside, the Jets were
reportedly willing to part ways with Powell if they had outbid
the 49ers for Jerick McKinnon, so perhaps New York is doing what
it can to grease the skids for a possible Powell release this
summer. If McGuire is in fact going to be the third-down back
for the Jets this season, then he becomes a potential waiver-wire
gem for early drafters even if fails to become the next Tomlinson.
McGuire is currently going undrafted - even in 14-team leagues
- something that does not figure to change much unless/until he
shines in preseason action.
Oakland
Doug
Martin was the best running back Tampa Bay had ever employed
based on most of the offseason reports last season. He appeared
capable of living up to his press clippings after completing the
final three games of this suspension and showing well in Week
5 against New England last season, but the Bucs had clearly grown
tired of his act and released him two years into a five-year,
$35.75 million contract. Lo and behold, Martin is looking good
in yet another offseason and has some
people believing he will seriously push Marshawn
Lynch for the starting job in training camp.
If there is any player fantasy owners are tired of hearing about
more than Martin, it might be Jared
Cook. The 31-year-old tight end played in 16 games for the
fourth time in five years last year and set a career high with
54 catches, yet he wasn't much of a factor in fantasy outside
of about four weeks. While Cook has never lacked for talent and
lately hasn't lacked a good quarterback throwing him the ball,
he simply has never emerged into the kind of factor in the red
zone most might expect from a highly athletic 6-5 tight end. At
any rate, his background isn't stopping new HC Jon Gruden from
praising
the veteran for his work during the spring. "Jared Cook has
had a great camp. I did not know Jared Cook moved like that. I
knew he had really good pass-receiving skills, but we can line
him up at a lot of different places now. He’s been really sharp.
We’ve asked him to do a lot."
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Before owners write off Martin completely,
it's important to note he will be running behind one of the best
offensive lines in the league after operating behind one of the
worst a season ago. That alone gives him a chance to redeem himself.
Expectations need to be kept in check, however, as there is virtually
no scenario in which Martin will be a featured back as long as
Lynch is still on the roster. Of course, that assumes Martin can
beat out Lynch for the starting job, which seems unlikely anyway.
Making matters more difficult for owners, the Raiders already
have two above-average options on passing downs in DeAndre Washington
and Jalen Richard, so it's not as if the loser in the Lynch-Martin
battle can simply operate as the breather/change-of-pace/third-down
back. If Martin manages to steal any real part of the early-down
workload from Lynch, then Lynch's current 7.08 ADP is way too
high. With that said, I'm not sure I can get behind Martin's current
11.03 ADP either, as he seems to be a longshot at best to overtake
Lynch.
Unlike his running back brethren, Cook is really the only show
in town at tight end for Oakland. While Derek Carrier has long
been a player that could take off if he was ever given a real
chance to succeed, he's working on his fourth team in five years
and is no threat to overtake Cook. Lee Smith is merely a blocking
tight end. If Gruden decides he really likes Cook, he is a strong
enough play-designer to get his tight end 60 catches. The problem
with Cook reaching that mark is he has always been more of a downfield
threat and less of a move-the-chains option. What that means is
when everyone in Oakland is healthy/eligible, Cook will be fighting
Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant for big plays. Cook should be
considered a capable TE2 for fantasy purposes, but his lack of
touchdown upside and competition for vertical targets figures
to give him a relatively low ceiling.
Pittsburgh
As the Steelers enter Year 2 of the Le'Veon Bell saga, the only
question in their backfield outside of the day he will report
is whether James
Conner will do enough this summer to prove he is the clear
No. 2 back and/or whether the 2017 third-round draft pick will
show enough as a sophomore to make management's decision easy
to hold the line on Bell's contract demands. Conner is fully
healthy following a late-season MCL tear, and another year
to digest the pro game along with the playbook seems
to be agreeing with him. "He's a little bit more confident
in the playbook, handling protections - he's just in better shape.
He's running fast, running every ball to the end zone. He looks
good," tight end Jesse
James told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Ben
Roethlisberger was equally
impressed with Conner's spring performance. “I think he's
looking really well right now. I like what he's doing. He took
those rookie hiccups last year and has really gotten a lot better.
… I'm excited to get to camp with him."
Pittsburgh has long wanted a field-stretching tight end. It struck
out on Ladarius Green when he was unable to get or stay healthy.
The team traded for Vance
McDonald shortly before the start of last season and predictably
struggled to get much playing time or build much chemistry with
Roethlisberger until the end of the year. McDonald teased owners
with a bit of production during the fantasy playoffs but really
gave them something to think about for the 2018 campaign when
he caught 10 passes for 112 yards (on 16 targets!) in the Divisional
Round loss to the Jaguars. He's
the favorite to start over James and will reportedly be
featured in the offense in 2018 as the team hopes to utilize
his short-area speed.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: There will be plenty of owners who
will choose to draft another lottery ticket at running back instead
of using Conner as a handcuff to Bell. I will be part of the small
minority who chooses to take Conner late independent of whether
or not I draft Bell (which I likely will not unless he becomes
a screaming value). I've already documented in previous articles
how unlikely Bell will last the 2018 season. Even if he does,
the odds are long he'll amass anything close to 400 touches in
what will likely be his last season in Pittsburgh. While Jaylen Samuels may be the Steelers' third-down back if Bell misses time,
I've seen enough of Conner (and I think Pittsburgh has too) to
believe the Steelers feel comfortable using him as a true bell-cow
if Bell can't play. Although he obviously does not possess Bell's
talent, such a scenario would put Conner firmly on the low-end
RB1 bubble given the team's history of riding one back. Conner
needs to be drafted and stashed in all leagues with reasonably
sized benches.
There are the "Big Three" (Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce
and Zach Ertz) at tight end. After that, there is a list of about
12-15 players owners can argue over in terms of who belongs in
the next nine spots. McDonald belongs in that conversation, although
I think he'll fall just short of making it. Durability has been
a major obstacle for him, and critics will certainly point to
inconsistent hands as another. On the plus side, Pittsburgh tight
ends have amassed at least 95 targets every year since 2010, and
there is little reason to believe that will change with the first
player at the position the team has talked up in a few years.
With Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Bell around to give
defensive coordinators headaches, there should be at least 50
catches available for McDonald, assuming he can stay on the field.
Tennessee
For all the expectations regarding Corey
Davis making a huge leap in Year 2, there hasn't been a ton
of press about him. Thus, we'll wrap up this week's article talking
about the one fantasy position that carries the most intrigue
on this team in 2018: running back. The Derrick
Henry hype train was ready to leave the station when the Titans
decided to release DeMarco
Murray on March 8, but it got derailed less than a week later
when the team snagged Dion
Lewis with a four-year contract worth $19.8 million. The size
of the deal pretty much confirmed Tennessee intends to have its
two backs share the load - something new OC Matt LaFleur suggested
would be the case heading into training camp when he said he looked
at his two backs as "1A
and 1B." Lewis is apparently under
the same impression. “I think they’re going to use both of
us. Derrick’s a great back and I’m happy to be a part of the backfield
with him, so I think we can form a pretty good one-two punch."
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: "Exotic smash-mouth" may
be a thing of the past, but the Titans under new HC Mike Vrabel
and LaFleur figure to maintain a strong identity in the run game
like their predecessors. The big difference with the new regime
figures to be adding more creativity to the offense, in part by
allowing Marcus Mariota to use his athleticism more often than
former HC Mike Mularkey and ex-OC Terry Robiskie did. Most expect
Henry to receiver most of the goal line and short yardage work,
while Lewis handles most of the touches in the passing game. However,
Tennessee committed too much money to Lewis to have him serve
as a true backup to Henry, so it could take a month or so before
owners can get a good handle when one back may be better to use
in fantasy than the other. Henry and Lewis could both finish among
the top 20 running backs if the Titans truly utilize their backs
in 1A and 1B fashion, but it will be difficult to trust either
player on a weekly basis unless the other one is forced to miss
time. In such a scenario, the man left standing should be a top-10
fantasy back. If that doesn't happen, Lewis and Henry may top
out as low-end RB2s.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.