Over the long history of fantasy football, the phrase "opportunity
is king" has been uttered a time or two. It stands to reason.
Generally speaking, whenever a person gets more chances to accomplish
a goal - whether it be on the football field, completing a task
at work or winning the lottery - the odds of a positive outcome
generally increase.
With this in mind, I wanted to devote this week to the one position
fantasy owners want to stockpile as many assets as they can as
often as possible - running back. When owners have three starting-caliber
backs, they want four. When they have four, they are typically
on the lookout for No.5.
Snap shares tell us how often a back is in the game, but how
is that much different than the amount of court/ice time a basketball/hockey
player gets? Taking a look at the number of touches a back gets
helps to identify trends, but its scope is also limited in that
game script (positive or negative) can have a dramatic effect
on the final number. There's a better way to identify trends while
also getting some idea on how important an offensive coordinator
believes his back is to the offense.
While I will admit the chart below won't exactly qualify as advanced
analytics, it provides perspective on how vital each running back
is to his offense. The percentages you'll see reflect the number
of touches each player saw on a weekly basis divided by the number
of snaps the team ran that week. The resulting "Act %"
tells us the player's usage rate. In other words, how often is
a running back touching the ball in relation to how often an offensive
play is being run?
For the sake of time and space, I eliminated any running back
who is not averaging at least eight touches. Running backs touching
the ball on at least 30 percent of the total offensive plays should
be considered true workhorses, while backs at or around 25 percent
may be considered a bit more volatile unless they missed significant
time during a game (Saquon
Barkley and David
Johnson come immediately to mind). I've also included each player's
PPR fantasy points and their fantasy points per touch, which indicates
how efficient they have been to this point and indirectly provides
some level of insight into how likely they will remain in their
current role (coaches aren't going to reduce the workload of highly
efficient players, right?).
Most of us already knew Christian
McCaffrey was enjoying a ridiculous start to the season, and
this confirms it. One player getting the ball on over 40 percent
of his team's snaps is an eye-popping number in a day and age
where committee backfields are prevalent. (It bears mentioning
that number was at 33.3 percent in two games with Cam
Newton.) At 1.12 fantasy points/touch, it's obvious the heavy
workload hasn't been an issue for him yet, although it's probably
a bit ambitious to believe he'll remain on a 432-touch pace for
16 games. However, we already knew McCaffrey was good, so let's
get to some less obvious backs.
As I detailed in last week's article,
Le'Veon Bell
may be the best buy-low back in fantasy. Although his efficiency
is among the worst of the backs on this list (35th out of 47 to
be exact), that's the kind of thing that will happen when a back
has faced a steady dose of solid - if not great - front sevens
without the passing game giving defenses anything to worry about.
Feel free to remind Bell's fantasy owner in your league he saw
a season-low 15 touches last week in Sam
Darnold's return to the field as proof "this just isn't going
to be his year" if necessary. With a usage rate anywhere close
to his current 37.3 percent, Bell will return high-end RB1 value
so long as he is averaging something close to his current 22.6
touches.
Without question, Derrick Henry's dud in Week 6 (33 total yards
on 16 touches) was depressing. As is the case with a self-respecting
fantasy analyst, it was important to find out why. On the surface,
Denver appeared to be a good matchup, but it wasn't. Leonard Fournette
is the only back to really do much against the Broncos' on the
ground (225 yards), and it's important to note his 81-yard run
in that game probably should have been called back due to a missed
holding call on Von Miller. One big change to Denver's run defense
over the last two weeks has been the play of NT Mike Purcell,
who seemingly beat his man cleanly every time Henry attempted
to run inside. Prior to last week, Henry was one of six backs
with at least 10 PPR fantasy points in each of the first five
games. That's a significant stat considering how little he is
used in the passing game.
Readers' eyes will probably quickly fixate on Henry's 0.74 fantasy
points per touch more than his 31.2 percent usage rate, but let's
put that former number into some perspective: it's higher than
Bell's 0.71 despite the fact Bell has 22 more receptions (and
thus, 22 more fantasy points due to PPR scoring). Fournette is
only at 0.76. Take away his aforementioned 81-yard run that should
have been flagged and he's staring at the same 0.71 number Henry
is despite having 20 more catches. It's the same as Chris Carson's
despite the fact Seattle can scare defenses in the passing game.
Making matters worse for Henry is his league-worst 0.8 yards
before first contact and the fact he is facing at least eight
men in the box 38.1 percent of the time (third-highest among qualified
runners) - two things that often can go hand-in-hand, especially
on a team with sub-par quarterback play. While all that may appear
to be damning evidence to sell Henry as quickly as possible, that
may not be the right thing to do. Even if Ryan Tannehill only
offers league-average quarterback play moving forward - something
Marcus Mariota was not giving the Titans - Tennessee will start
enjoying some more consistent success in the passing game. (Imagine
how many quarterbacks would love having Corey Davis, A.J. Brown
and Delanie Walker to throw to. Tannehill never had that kind
of talent in Miami.) None of this is to suggest Tannehill is the
answer, but Mariota has been legitimately bad for long stretches
of games this season.
Consider for a second Henry ranks seventh among qualified runners
with 2.8 yards after contact per carry, which means he is generating
roughly 76 percent of his 3.7 YPC on his own. Last year, Henry
posted 3.1 YPC after contact and 1.9 before contact. Perhaps the
Titans' offensive line doesn’t offer the same kind of run-blocking
moving forward that it did last season, although Tennessee didn't
drop $11 million per season on LG Roger Saffold with the idea
he was a downgrade on Quinton Spain. The team was happy to let
RG Josh Kline go in free agency but hasn't received adequate play
at the position in part because Kevin Pamphile has yet to play.
LT Taylor Lewan hasn't graded out particularly since returning
from his four-game suspension, but that figures to change soon.
The same offensive line coach that oversaw last year's strong
finish is back this season and the line theoretically stayed the
same or improved in four of the five spots. So I ask you: what's
more likely? The offensive line continues to play at an awful
level and the presence of Tannehill does absolutely nothing to
make defenses respect the passing game OR the offensive line AND
Tannehill both play at a league-average level moving forward,
thereby making like a bit easier for Henry.
Yet another problem: not nearly enough outside
runs. Despite his 250-pound frame, Henry is a big-play back.
Big-play backs typically need to be able to get to the outside
in order to do the most damage. Not only is Henry on a toss play
a scary sight for linebackers, but it also allows him to pick
up steam and optimize his most obvious advantage - his size.
Fantasy owners of James Conner are likely thrilled about what
he did in Week 6 against the Chargers. A season-high 23 touches.
Seven catches. Two touchdowns. That's all wonderful, folks, but
we're talking about a running back who hasn’t topped 55
yards rushing yet and is averaging 3.2 yards per carry in a situation
that isn't going to get better until Ben Roethlisberger returns
next season. While there doesn't appear to be much reason for
him to be fearful of Jaylen Samuels for the next few games, the
fact of the matter is Samuels was stealing some touches before
his knee injury. Worse yet, Conner has already suffered three
different injuries through six games (knee, ankle, calf), including
the calf injury that sidelined him for a big chunk of the second
half in Los Angeles. This story likely has a predictable ending,
especially given Conner's running style. Yes, he has an enviable
second-half schedule, but he has to make it there. When we consider
56 of Conner's 100.6 PPR fantasy points so far have come via touchdowns
(always highly unpredictable, especially in a bad offense) and
catches, we've probably already seen the best he has to offer
this year. Throw in what appears to be shaky durability, and this
has the potential to go south quickly for his fantasy owners.
David Montgomery's 24.4 percent usage rate is probably about
as disheartening as his 50.7 PPR fantasy points and 0.65 fantasy
points per touch. Now for the good news. Since HC Matt Nagy scrapped
his ridiculous Week 1 plan in which he had Mitchell Trubisky throw
45 times and Montgomery touch the ball seven times, the rookie
has been asked to run or catch the ball on 28.5 percent of team's
offensive plays over the last four games. And here's some perspective
for those who need it on him. Below is Jordan Howard's stat line
next to Montgomery's line through the first five games of their
respective seasons in Nagy's offense:
2018 Howard: 78 carries for 272 yards, one touchdown,
3.5 YPC; 13 targets, 10 catches for 78 yards (49 PPR fantasy points)
2019 Montgomery: 69 carries for 225 yards, two
touchdowns, 3.2 YPC; 13 targets, nine catches for 72 yards (50.7
fantasy points)
Howard finished as the RB20 last season.
Does the fact that Howard finished strong last year mean Howard
will do likewise? Of course not. But what we have in Montgomery
as a player who Nagy knows fits his system. Howard did not and
still got fed the ball a ton down the stretch. Montgomery is a
bit more of a tenuous buy-low than some considering the presence
of Tarik Cohen, although it's not as if the scatback's four to
five carries per game is having a significant impact on Montgomery.
Only twice in five games has Cohen caught more than two passes
(both losses). Since becoming Chicago's coach, Nagy has shown
a tendency to try to show off his play-calling brilliance as opposed
to letting his best players handle the majority of work. Perhaps
a bit of self-scouting during the bye and a look back at what
worked during the team's strong finish last year will lead to
a heavier and more consistent workload for Montgomery - just as
it did for Howard - during the second half of the season.
Not a fan of Henry? Allow me to reintroduce you to Marlon Mack
- a player the Colts are using in much the same fashion. His 0.65
fantasy points per touch are the second-worst mark of any player
on this list receiving a touch on at least 25 percent of the team's
snaps. (The worst, unsurprisingly, is Carlos Hyde.) While it's
not exactly fair to penalize a back stuck in an offense that doesn't
emphasize getting him the ball in space as a receiver, the fact
of the matter is he has benefited greatly from one long run against
a poor run defense in the Chargers and extreme volume - albeit
at less than 100 percent - versus another poor run defense in
the Chiefs.
Fantasy owners hoping for a repeat of his second half from last
season could be disappointed. Houston (Weeks 7 and 12) has held
up well despite facing Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, Denver
(Week 8) has played solid run defense in the last two weeks as
mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh (Week 9) hasn't allowed more than
14 PPR fantasy points to any back, Tennessee (Week 13) has already
shut Mack down, Tampa Bay (Week 14) has been among the most stingy
defenses versus opposing backs despite facing McCaffrey twice
and New Orleans (Week 15) has only been slightly more forgiving
than Tampa Bay despite already facing Carson, Ezekiel Elliott
and Fournette. That leaves Week 10 (Miami) and Week 11 (Jacksonville)
as the only obvious strong plays for Mack the rest of the way.
Trouble brewing?
Besides the aforementioned efficiency, two other good metrics
for fantasy owners to track is how much yardage he generates after
contact and how often a back breaks a tackle on running plays.
To give readers a point of reference, Austin Ekeler (3.3), Henry
(3.1) and Nick Chubb (3.1) led all qualified rushers in the former
last season. Henry also led the league in rushing attempts per
broken tackle, averaging one every 6.3 carries - a mark that substantially
better than second-place Mark Ingram's (7.7).
This season, Fournette (3.9), Ingram (3.1) and Gus Edwards (3.0)
are leading the pack in yards after contact, with Carson (2.9),
Dalvin Cook (2.9) and Henry (2.8) among those not too far behind.
Kamara has a significant lead over his brethren in attempts per
broken tackle at 4.1. Obviously, these marks will all experience
some degree of volatility as the season progresses, but there
are some notable names struggling in one or both areas so far
in 2019. The following is a group of running backs who haven't
done a particularly good job of creating yards after contact or
breaking tackles on a regular basis (we'll set the bar at 70 rushing
attempts to eliminate smaller sample sizes):
James
Conner: 2.1 yards after contact,
one broken tackle every 18.5 attempts (last season: 2.1 and 10.8) Ezekiel
Elliott: 2.1 yards after contact,
one broken tackle every 56.5 attempts (2.0 and 16.0) Joe Mixon:
1.9 yards after contact, one broken tackle every 37 attempts (2.3
and 39.5) Devonta
Freeman: 1.8 yards after contact,
one broken tackle every 19.3 attempts (DNQ) David
Johnson: 1.8 yards after contact,
one broken tackle every 38 attempts (1.6 and 28.7) Sony Michel:
1.2 yards after contact, one broken tackle every 25 attempts (2.1
and 19)
Admittedly, the difference in Conner and Mixon's 2018 and 2019
numbers aren't too staggering. Both can be blamed in part to below-average
- if not poor - run blocking. Michel's decline has already been
well-chronicled. It seems unlikely Freeman's numbers would have
been much different had he stayed healthy last season.
The two biggest shockers to me were Elliott and Johnson. Perhaps
Zeke's long offseason is to blame, but owners should be at least
a bit concerned he has as many broken tackles (two) as Kyler Murray,
Benny Snell and Gardner Minshew. Remember that while Elliott was
eased into his role as the workhorse again, Dallas faced three
of the most favorable matchups it will have all season. While
Elliott is theoretically matchup-proof, those fantasy owners expecting
a spiked week in the near future could be disappointed. Only the
Giants (Week 9) and Lions (Week 11) appear to be potential blowup
spots. Otherwise, Philadelphia (Week 7), Minnesota (Week 10),
New England (Week 12) and Buffalo (Week 13) all rank among the
10 stingiest defenses against running backs.
Johnson's appearance on this list is only surprising because
last season's offense was so unimaginative that a bigger increase
could have been expected. Fortunately, HC Kliff Kingsbury and
his staff are smart enough to realize Arizona's offensive line
isn't good enough to maul opponents, although that was never going
to happen anyway due to the Air Raid. As a result, Arizona has
intelligently utilized him as a receiver, which will remove some
of the sting of difficult matchups over the next month - such
as the Saints, 49ers (twice) and Bucs.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.