It is increasingly rare for fantasy managers to get through the
first week or two of the season without having to deal with at least
one or two injury issues on their teams. For as long as I can remember,
one of my first articles at the start of every season is a piece
about how to react to the rash of injuries taking place.
This year is no different from any other in terms of key players
missing time early in the season. In fact, it is hardly surprising
considering the league as a whole opts to use the preseason more
to decide who belongs on the back end of their rosters and less
on preparing players for the physical punishment they are about
to endure.
The argument for the current method is that teams should theoretically
enter the season healthy. The argument against it is enough players
suffer soft-tissue injuries in Week 1 and Week 2 that teams must
resort to Plan B for a month in mid-September. Those injured players
then often must race against time to be a major contributor again
before midseason.
The rest of this column will be devoted to highlighting players
who are already dealing with some kind of multi-week injury and
what fantasy managers can do to tread water until their return.
Quarterbacks
Tua
Tagovailoa (concussion) - cannot
return until Week 8 at the earliest
Jordan
Love (knee) - could return as soon
as Week 3
Thankfully, the quarterback position has not been hit as hard
yet by injury as the other fantasy positions - with the exception
of Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have already placed him on IR. The
Dolphins smartly have not provided a timetable - outside of the
fact he will have to sit out Miami's next four games. If there
is any good news about the entire situation from a fantasy perspective,
it might be that most managers in 12-team (or smaller) one-quarterback
leagues were not counting on Tagovailoa as a starter.
Love seemingly avoided a major injury with the MCL sprain he
suffered in Week 1. He returned to a limited practice on Wednesday
and could push to play in Week 3 against the Titans. Even if he
does not play this weekend, Week 4 seems like a worst-case scenario
at this point.
The backup plan for each team:Skylar Thompson
has already been announced as the starter in Miami for however
long Tagovailoa is out, although it seems more like a situation
where he could be looking over his shoulder at Tyler Huntley as
soon as Week 4 against the Titans if he struggles in Week 3 versus
the Seahawks.
We have already seen the backup plan in Green Bay, as the Packers
hid Malik Willis (14 pass attempts) and ran 53 times in a Week
2 win over Indianapolis. It seems unlikely Tennessee's run defense
will be as soft as the Colts' was in the event Love is not ready
yet.
Some alternatives if you are stuck at quarterback:
Hopefully, managers heeded my advice last
week and picked up Baker
Mayfield. Derek
Carr is off to a fast start with the surprising Saints' offense.
With that said, both players have likely been picked up in the
majority of competitive leagues already. There is also a strong
chance Justin
Fields has as well, although the play-calling in Pittsburgh
has been so conservative that even a dynamic dual-threat quarterback
such as him may not have very much upside.
It might feel a bit gross to consider Sam Darnold, but it may
be about time to do so. He stated recently that he took his preparation
to a new level during his one-year stint last season in San Francisco.
Transitioning from 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan to Vikings HC Kevin
O'Connell has afforded the former No. 3 overall pick a fair amount
of time to decompress after landing in poor situations with the
Jets and Panthers to begin his career. In Minnesota, he has a
decent chance of becoming this year's version of Mayfield in that
he is getting a chance to start over with a good play-caller and
a strong supporting cast.
Another option worth considering is Kirk
Cousins. The 36-year-old offers no rushing upside and may
be the poster child for why 90 percent of the league needs to
play more during the preseason (although I recognize the role
his surgically repaired Achilles is likely playing a bigger role
in his slow start). This is another case of a quarterback with
a very good supporting cast who may just need some time to re-acclimate
to the speed of the game. The beauty of adding Cousins is that
Atlanta could find itself in shootout mode each of the next three
weeks against the Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. After that, he could
be a key part of many fantasy title runs with games against the
Giants and Commanders in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon
(ankle) - not ruled out for Week 3 yet, but it would
be a mild surprise if he avoided a high-ankle sprain
Kenneth
Walker (oblique) - missed Week 2
and could miss 1-2 more games
Isiah
Pacheco (fractured fibula) - expected
to miss AT LEAST 6-8 weeks
Mixon seemingly avoided the dreaded high-ankle sprain, although
there have been no reports confirming that yet. Consider me skeptical
that he plays in Week 3 against the Vikings and consider me even
more skeptical that he does so at a high level if he suits up.
Walker pointed to his side upon straining his oblique late in
Week 1, but his reaction at the time was so minor that it was
a bit shocking to see him as a "DNP" to begin last week.
The problem with oblique injuries is that they are rarely "minor"
enough for someone to play through - especially for a running
back or receiver who will twist and turn as often as they do.
Fantasy managers should be prepared for Walker to miss at least
two more games and hope he can return to practice at some point
next week.
It is always a risk to rely too heavily on running backs who
seek contact and/or attempt to squeeze as much as they can out
of every run. Such is the case for Pacheco, who faces a long road
to recovery after undergoing surgery earlier this week. Kansas
City has been a very balanced offense through two games (53 pass
attempts versus 52 runs), but it seems unlikely that will remain
the case moving forward with no other back on the roster possessing
Pacheco's blend of power and explosiveness.
The backup plan for each team:Dameon Pierce is technically Mixon's
direct backup, but he is dealing with a hamstring problem. That
means Cam Akers could draw a start against his most recent former
team and handle a heavy workload.
Fantasy managers are already quite familiar with Zach Charbonnet,
although he has not done anything through two weeks to convince
the new coaching staff he deserves more playing time (despite
the fact he is the RB18 through two weeks).
The great mystery entering this weekend is what the Chiefs intend
to do with their stable of running backs. Preseason sensation
Carson Steele is considered the frontrunner to replace Pacheco
- at least on early downs - but that might be a bit of a stretch
considering we have seen Samaje Perine fill in nicely when asked
to handle a full workload. With that said, Perine has yet to log
a carry through two games. Steele has nine. Perine is highly regarded
for his contributions in the passing game and has been targeted
twice on 13 pass routes. Steele has yet to see a target on six
routes. On Tuesday, the Chiefs muddied the waters even more by
adding old friend Kareem Hunt to the mix.
Some alternatives if you are stuck at running back:
The plan might be slightly different for all three backs. Along
with Mixon, Pierce also did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.
That would leave Akers as the favorite to handle 15 touches out
of Houston's backfield in Week 3.
Charbonnet is highly unlikely to be available in any competitive
league. Kenny McIntosh logged one snap in the backfield in Week
2, so it appears to be a one-man show in Seattle for as long as
Walker is out.
While I cannot say I am avoiding the Kansas City backfield, I
also have no plans to go out of my way to acquire pieces of it
in a post-Pacheco world. Steele is a better player than he is
being given credit for, but it is hard to imagine the Chiefs maintain
the same kind of run-pass balance with Steele that they had with
Pacheco, especially when they have the weapons they do now in
the passing game.
So what is the plan? With Akers, the easy move is to secure Akers
ASAP and ride Mixon's potential absence with him. Walker has a
more indefinite timeline. Since Charbonnet is not available in
most leagues, a nice two-week band-aid might be trading for Zack
Moss or D'Andre
Swift. Fantasy managers who can afford a higher-priced fix
might look to Derrick
Henry.
The reason to pursue any one of them boils down to matchups over
the next two weeks. The Bengals should be able to control game
script against the Commanders in Week 3 and the Panthers in Week
4. Swift could be poised for a strong three-week run with upcoming
matchups against the Colts, Rams and Panthers.
As far as Henry is concerned, there has been enough handwringing
over his slow start that some managers will likely begin writing
him off due to his age. He is at least the same back he was last
year physically and one would have to believe the Ravens did not
sign him in free agency to play him less often than Justice Hill.
(Hill has played 78 snaps versus Henry's 67 through two games.)
Considering how easily New Orleans ran through the Cowboys (Baltimore's
Week 3 opponent) and how often Buffalo (Baltimore's Week 4 opponent)
is enticing opponents to run by playing with two high safeties,
it seems logical the Ravens will start relying a bit more heavily
on King Henry. The downside of trying to acquire Henry right now
will be paying for his name value. The obvious upside is that
he may not come as cheap as he is right now for the rest of the
season. Once acquired, he should be a permanent fixture in fantasy
lineups.
Wide Receivers
Cooper
Kupp (ankle) - his high-ankle sprain
is expected to sideline him for AT LEAST four weeks
A.J. Brown
(hamstring) - missed Week 2 with a late-week hamstring
issue that is expected to sideline him for Week 3 and maybe Week
4
Deebo
Samuel (calf) - suffered a calf
strain in Week 2 that is expected to keep him out for AT LEAST
two weeks
Keenan
Allen (heel) - his case of plantar
fasciitis forced him to sit out Week 2 and will likely cause him
to miss Week 3
(I could have easily included Puka Nacua above, but I wanted
to keep the spotlight mostly on injuries that either happened
in Week 2 or since.) The Rams are so beat up that the only reason
Kupp is unlikely to land on IR is because the team is already
in a position where it has to be careful about who it designates
for return (teams are limited to eight such moves during the regular
season). The reality of the situation is that Kupp seems unlikely
to return before Week 8 or Week 9. Not only does history tell
us that he is at increased odds of injuring the ankle again upon
his return, but we can also expect a slight performance dip. We
may see a repeat of the 2023 version of Kupp for the rest of the
season.
Philadelphia did fantasy managers a solid by announcing Brown's
game status for Monday Night Football about an hour before games
kicked off on Sunday afternoon. ESPN's Lisa Salters reported before
the Eagles' game that Brown expects to miss a couple of weeks.
Samuel appeared to injure his calf on the 49ers' final offensive
play in Week 2. HC Kyle Shanahan told reporters the next day that
his all-purpose weapon would be sidelined for "a few weeks."
Even if Samuel is dealing with only a Grade 1 strain, a Week 5
return may be the best-case scenario.
The Chargers gave 26-year-old Justin Herbert most of a month
to rest his plantar fascia and he plays quarterback. One can only
imagine how much time a 32-year-old receiver like Allen will need
before he feels comfortable. A Week 4 return feels optimistic,
so fantasy managers should probably hope he is ready to roll by
Week 5. The problem with that timeline is that Chicago should
not need Allen against the Panthers that week and Week 6 is a
Thursday night game heading into the team's Week 7 bye.
The backup plan for each team:Tyler Johnson served as Nacua's
direct replacement once the latter went down in Week 1. Although
it appeared he was splitting snaps with Tutu Atwell at various
points in Week 2, I tend to believe nothing has changed in regards
to Johnson being Nacua's "handcuff." Preseason sensation
Jordan Whittington seems to be the direct replacement for Kupp,
while Demarcus Robinson remains the only healthy starting receiver
for the Rams. I think Whittington emerges as the best long-term
play of this bunch (assuming Kupp does not return until midseason),
but there may just not be a ton of upside in this offense anymore
with the offensive line and receiving corps in shambles.
Jahan Dotson saw the most snaps in Week 2 after DeVonta Smith,
but it was Britain Covey who was targeted on six of his 20 routes
(versus one target on 30 routes for Dotson). The reality of the
situation is that Smith figures to be treated like an alpha by
Jalen Hurts for as long as Brown is out. Neither Dotson nor Covey
should be on a fantasy roster in 12-team leagues.
Jauan Jennings should start in Samuel's place over the next two
or so weeks, but there is no one on the roster that comes close
to replacing what he can do. Christian McCaffrey would have handled
more work if this was last year, but we know the deal there. The
next best thing would be to rely more heavily on George Kittle,
but he is now looking dicey for Week 3. Ronnie Bell is probably
the closest thing the 49ers have to Samuel stylistically, but
he has struggled to earn snaps in 1 1/4 years with the 49ers.
So, the most likely answer to the Deebo question is trusting Jordan Mason a little more in the passing game, feeding Brandon Aiyuk
about 15 targets and giving some more work to Isaac Guerendo,
who reminds the team of a young Raheem Mostert. The 49ers particularly
like his receiving ability.
Fantasy managers saw the backup plan for Allen in Week 2. It
was not Tyler
Scott, who is generally considered the fourth receiver in
Chicago. It was not even really Rome
Odunze, although his Week 1 knee injury could have played
a role in his relative lack of involvement. It was returner extraordinaire
DeAndre Carter.
Some alternatives if you are stuck at wide receiver:
A readily available short-term option may be Greg
Dortch. There is a good chance he was dropped in many leagues
after a two-target Week 2 (2-11-0), but he was a key part of the
Week 1 game plan. That is not the reason to like him, however.
Slot receivers through two weeks have been hammering the Lions
(Arizona's Week 3 opponent). While it should be noted those two
primary slots were Kupp and Chris
Godwin, Dortch is no slouch and has the full confidence of
his quarterback. Week 4 sees the Commanders' woeful pass defense
visiting the desert.
Assuming he is fully recovered from his early-August high-ankle
sprain, Josh Downs may end up being to Anthony Richardson what
Zay Flowers is for Lamar Jackson. While Richardson may never have
a completion rate pushing 65 percent, he is easily much more than
the 49-percent passer he has been through two games. Only Trevor Lawrence has attempted a higher percentage of the throws 20 or
more yards down the field than Richardson (18.9 percent) and no
quarterback has attempted a higher percentage of throws in the
10-19 yard range (32.1) than last year's No. 4 overall pick.
Downs excels at what Indy needs right now: someone who can separate
quickly and do some of his best work over the middle of the field.
The Colts do not have a tight end or running back they trust enough
to be a threat in the passing game, which opens up a big window
of opportunity for Downs. For as much as he does right, Michael Pittman Jr. does not get open quickly or create much separation.
Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are more vertical threats than
complete receivers at this point of their careers (despite Pierce's
hot start to the season).
Amari Cooper
has gotten off to such an uncharacteristic start that he is likely
feeling the effects of missing as much offseason work as he did
while pushing for an upgraded contract. He leads the league with
four drops (per Pro Football Reference), which helps to explain
why he only has five catches on 17 targets so far. There is little
doubt he is still the alpha in Cleveland, so it is likely a matter
of when - not if - he will return to the player we remember. If
his track record is not convincing enough, perhaps upcoming games
against the Giants (Week 3), Raiders (Week 4), Commanders (Week
5) and Eagles (Week 6) will do the trick.
Tight Ends
Evan
Engram (hamstring) - suffered a
hamstring strain in warmups before Week 2 that is expected to
sideline him AT LEAST two more weeks
David
Njoku (ankle) - his Week 1 high-ankle
sprain could cause him to miss four to six games
George
Kittle (hamstring) - reports of
a hamstring strain surfaced on Wednesday; he appears unlikely
to play in Week 3 and could miss one or two games after that
While it does not happen very often, players suffer a soft-tissue
injury during warmups. There has not been much word about the
seriousness of his particular injury, but it seems likely he is
out for Week 3 and has about a 50-50 chance at best to be ready
for Week 4. Ditto for Kittle.
Njoku is about two weeks into his recovery from an injury that
usually requires players to miss four to six weeks. Beyond that,
many athletes who suffer high-ankle sprains suggest they do not
feel 100 percent again until the offseason.
The backup plan for each team:Brenton Strange stepped up for
desperate Engram managers in Week 2 with three catches for 65
yards. He logged 41 of a possible 60 snaps in that contest, while
Luke Farrell played 28. Expect a similar split on Monday night
against the Bengals.
Jordan Akins played 35 of 72 snaps in relief of Njoku in Week
2 versus the Jags. As long as Njoku is out, it is probably safe
to assume Deshaun Watson will lean more on his receiving corps
than make sure Akins is involved.
Eric Saubert is the only tight end on San Francisco's roster
- other than Kittle - to play more than two snaps through two
games. He has drawn three targets on 15 routes.
Some alternatives if you are stuck at tight end:
The tight end position is off to another sleepy start. Only eight
across the league have scored a receiving touchdown and only four
scored more than 21 fantasy points through Week 2. In short, there
are not a lot of great alternatives. With that said, there are
two options I would like to highlight briefly.
It is impossible to know when he will become the preferred option
at his position on the team, but Week 2 saw Erick All log the
most extensive playing time of his brief NFL career (33 snaps).
Joe Burrow has been effusive with his praise regarding the rookie,
who should overtake Drew Sample as the primary blocking tight
end soon. Mike Gesicki may be a bit harder to push aside if he
can continue to play like he did in Week 2, but it is important
to remember Cincinnati is his third team in as many years. How
long will it take before his liabilities as a blocker come back
to bite the Bengals? All was one of the more complete tight end
prospects in April's draft, which should make him hard to take
off the field once he has earned the trust of the coaching staff.
The other option is one few will like. Zach Ertz is the very
definition of a catch-and-fall tight end at this point of his
career, but he probably ranks as the No. 2 option in what has
been a very small-ball offense so far. To this point, preseason
hype machine Ben Sinnott has not threatened Ertz's playing time
very much (13 snaps in each of the first two games). Ertz also
has the benefit of having a relationship with OC Kliff Kingsbury
from their time together in Arizona, which might buy him some
time as well.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."