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Favorites & Fades


Week 10

By: Nick Caron | HC Green | Eli Mack | John Fessel
Updated: 11/12/23

Thursday:

CAR @ CHI


Sunday Early:

IND @ NE | GB @ PIT | NO @ MIN | HOU @ CIN

CLE @ BAL | TEN @ TB | SF @ JAX


Sunday Late:

DET @ LAC | ATL @ ARI | WAS @ SEA | NYG @ DAL

NYJ @ LV

Monday:

DEN @ BUF

Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Panthers @ Bears - (Green)
Line: CHI -3.5
Total: 39.5

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: WR Adam Thielen

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RB Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard has clearly overtaken offseason signing Miles Sanders as the lead back, logging 16 carries for 58 yards against the Colts last Sunday. In all, Hubbard had 20 touches compared to nine for Sanders. Maybe that evens out a little bit more Thursday night because of the short turnaround, but still look for Hubbard to get a higher percentage of the work. Chicago boasts a surprisingly strong run defense, though, ranking fourth in yards per game (79.7) and first in yards per carry (3.3). That leaves Hubbard as an RB3.

Fade: QB Bryce Young

While itís still far too early to make sweeping judgments about Youngís future, his present is a mess. In Week 9, he threw for 173 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs -- it marked the third time this year he passed for less than 200 yards. As such, the rookie isnít a viable option even against the NFLís fifth-worst pass defense (256.9 yards/game), and the only one that has allowed 20 TD passes on the year.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB DíOnta Foreman

It appears as though Khalil Herbert (ankle) has a good shot to be activated from IR before kickoff on Thursday night. Even if that happens, look for Foreman to fill the lead role while Herbert gets his legs under him. In Herbertís four-game absence, Foreman has racked up 306 yards and 3 TDs while serving as the primary back. He might have some added motivation as well, having rushed for 914 yards with Carolina a season ago only to be replaced in free agency by Sanders. Against the Panthersí 28th-ranked run defense, Foreman has RB2 upside.

On the Fence: WR D.J. Moore

In the three-plus games that Tyson Bagent has led the offense, Moore has collected 51, 54, 55, and 44 yards, respectively. That adds up to 204 yards. In his last full game with Fields, Moore logged 230 yards and three TDs on eight receptions. Had Justin Fields (thumb) been ready to return, Moore’s ceiling would’ve increased dramatically. With Bagent making a fourth consecutive start, however, it’s hard to view Chicago’s No. 1 receiver as more than a low-end WR3.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Panthers 20, Bears 17 ^ Top

Colts @ Patriots - (Caron)
Line: IND -2.5
Total: 42.5

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Jonathan Taylor

The training wheels appear to finally be off running back Jonathan Taylor as the former NFL rushing leader finally saw the field for 75 percent of the Coltsí offensive snaps in Week 9, including a 62 percent rushing share and a whopping 23 percent target share in the passing game. Indianapolis QB Gardner Minshew loves checking down to his running backs and as long as Taylor is on the field he should continue to see significant usage as a pass-catcher to go along with a potentially elite rushing share. We know that Taylor has elite pure rushing skills, so a game like this one against a bad New England team should mean close to 20, if not pushing 30 touches for the superstar running back. Nowís the time to get him in your fantasy lineup.

On the Fence: WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Rookie wide receiver Josh Downs didnít practice Thursday with a knee injury and the Coltsí WR3 Alec Pierce has also been limited in practice with an ankle injury of his own, meaning that the Coltsí target share could be even more consolidated than usual this week. Pittman hasnít been a big-time difference-maker for fantasy this season, but heís been exceptionally reliable, having delivered double-digit fantasy days in all but one contest thus far. Heís also seen five different games of 11 or more targets, so with the Colts potentially being down multiple pass-catchers, this looks like an excellent opportunity for him to gobble up a gigantic target share against a Patriots defense that has conceded the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers so far this season.

Fade: RB Zack Moss

Most of us assumed that it was coming eventually, but Mossí snap share has really fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. The veteran went from a 51 percent snap share in Week 7 to 39 percent in Week 8 and then played on just 19 percent of snaps in Week 10. His rushing share was also at a season-low this past week as he took just 24 percent of the Coltsí carries. Starting Moss in fantasy lineups would likely mean relying on a blowout Colts win, which is possible, but itís more likely to be a low-scoring contest overall with Moss seeing around 30 percent of the Coltsí backfield touches. Heís nearly guaranteed to get some work, but it wonít likely be difference-making production.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Rhamondre Stevenson

The Colts have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, which should give fantasy managers some hope that Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson can finally put together his first string of RB1 fantasy games. Stevenson is coming off his best game of the season, having rushed for a season-high 87 yards and a touchdown while adding 42 yards as a receiver against the Commanders, and he should be a major focal point of the offense again this week. Fantasy managers just need to hope that the Patriotsí offense as a whole can pick up some steam and get him into scoring position more often because we canít be relying on him breaking off 64-yard runs every week. Still, heís nearly a lock to see at least a dozen touches and could push for 20 touches if the game stays close and the New England offense as a whole is moving the ball with at least some efficiency.

On the Fence: WR Demario Douglas

Rookie wide receiver Demario Douglas tied a season-high with seven targets this past week and he now has 14 targets over his past two games. His 55-yard receiving day in Week 9 was also a season-high as he exploited a bad Commanders defense. Unfortunately, heís now dealing with an ankle injury that has limited him in practice.

Assuming he can get on the field, Douglas will probably be the de facto top option in the New England passing game again. That doesnít necessarily mean much as the Patriots havenít really been moving the ball well through the air, but this matchup against the Colts isnít a terrible one. Indianapolis has a middle-of-the-pack against opposing wide receivers and they have conceded some huge games to opposing top pass catchers, including 20-plus-point days to six different receivers through nine weeks. Douglas is a low-end Flex option but could deliver some decent production for fantasy managers who are struggling to find bye-week replacements.

Fade: QB Mac Jones

Indianapolis is an average defense at defending opposing quarterbacks so we shouldnít really be scared about this matchup. The problem is really that Mac Jones just hasnít been able to deliver for fantasy managers even in good matchups. He had an excellent opportunity to put up big points this past week against a depleted Washington defense and was only able to throw for 220 yards and one touchdown. Sure, heís fine if you need a QB2 replacement in Superflex leagues, but Jonesí upside just isnít strong enough to consider him as a QB1 even in deeper leagues.

Prediction: Colts 23, Patriots 17 ^ Top

Packers @ Steelers - (Green)
Line: PIT -3.5
Total: 38.5

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RB AJ Dillon

While the Packers leaned on Jones in Week 9, Dillon quietly put together another nice effort, turning 10 touches into 43 yards. Following a slow start, the bulldozing back has been far more effective over the last month, totaling 76, 95, and 52 yards, respectively, in the three previous games. Heís simply running with more conviction and confidence, and against a Steelers team that enters Week 10 ranked 29th in the NFL against the run (133.1 yards/game), this is a week that Dillon could deliver flex or even RB3 value.

Fade: WR Christian Watson

It feels like a million years ago that Watson was a hot commodity after he closed his rookie season with eight touchdowns and three 100-plus-yard efforts over his final eight games. To this point in Year 2, Watson and Jordan Love have not found the same chemistry that the wideout enjoyed with Aaron Rodgers, topping 40 yards in a game just once and not scoring since his season debut back on Sept. 28. Heís had some chances on contested balls, but prior to last Sunday heíd be unable to secure them. Maybe that will jumpstart Watson. Maybe not. At this point, itís best to wait for him to deliver once or twice before using a starting slot on him.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: WR Diontae Johnson

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR George Pickens

What in the world is going on with Pickens? Just when it looked like he was emerging as a go-to guy with consecutive 100-plus-yard games, the second-year wideout has just three grabs for 21 yards combined over the past two weeks. His behavior off the field has been an issue as well, generating some ďAntonio Brown 2.0Ē buzz, and not in a positive way. Sometimes when a receiver squawks, the team makes getting him the ball a priority, so itís possible Pickens could rebound with solid value here. Johnson has the underneath/intermediate skill set that seems more conducive to success against the Packers, though, making Pickens more of a lottery ticket from the WR3/flex range.

Fade: RB Najee Harris

Itís been a tough season for Harris, who has only topped 100 yards in a game once, though he has scored in two of the last three games after not finding the end zone in the first five. While Green Bayís 23rd-ranked run defense seems like a potential plus matchup for Harris, keep in mind two things: 1) weíve been seeing more and more of Jaylen Warren recently, and heís more the type of back that gives the Packers trouble, and 2) Green Bay has only allowed 130 rushing yards combined over the past two games. Valuing Harris as more than an RB3/flex would be a mistake.

Prediction: Steelers 20, Packers 16 ^ Top

Saints @ Vikings - (Green)
Line: NO -3.0
Total: 40.5

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

No Brainers: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave

Favorites: TE Taysom Hill

There are few players more difficult to get a read on in terms of fantasy value than Hill, whose usage has spiked in recent weeks. His performance last Sunday -- 52 yards rushing, 13 yards receiving, 3 yards passing, and 2 total TDs -- exemplified his upside, not to mention the ongoing absurdity of the Jack-of-all-Trades being deployable as a tight end. That positional eligibility really elevates Hillís fantasy profile, especially now with several top TEs out injured (Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, etc.). If someone hasnít already plucked Hill off waivers, heís worth nabbing. He can be plugged into your lineup this Sunday, too.

On the Fence: QB Derek Carr

Carr topped the 300-yard mark in three straight games before last Sunday when he put up just 211 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Bears. When you remember that Hill threw a three-yard TD pass, it underscores how close the margins are between a mediocre day fantasy wise and a big one. The veteranís lack of touchdown passes has been a major issue thus far (he has 10 in nine games), and Minnesota has allowed a dozen, which ranks in the middle of the pack. You figure Carr will post decent yardage totals, but itíll be his ability to punch it in thatíll determine whether he can deliver QB1 value in Week 10.

Fade: N/A

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: RB Alexander Mattison, TE T.J. Hockenson (ribs)

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Jordan Addison

Thus far, Addison has been another first-round success story for the Vikings, following in the footsteps of Justin Jefferson with seven touchdowns in his first nine games. Coming into play last Sunday, heíd scored in four consecutive outings. That streak ended, though, and he finished the day with five catches for 52 yards. While he still projects as a solid WR3 versus NOLA, the reality is we donít know how Joshua Dobbs will distribute the ball in his first start, or how the Saints, which rank seventh in pass defense, will prioritize coverage -- remember that K.J. Osborn (concussion) could miss the game while in the NFLís concussion protocol, which could shift even more attention to the rookie.

Fade: QB Joshua Dobbs

By now youíve doubtless heard Dobbsí story, acquired midweek and without the benefit of any practice reps, he stepped in for an injured Jaren Hall (concussion) and led the team to a last-second victory over the Falcons. Itís impressive to be sure. Itís also more or less the same story we got from Baker Mayfield a season ago, and that was quickly followed by weeks of uninspired play. Thatís not to say Dobbs will follow suit. He did some nice things with Arizona, both as a runner and a passer, and the Vikings have more talent to surround him with. Heís bounced around the NFL for a reason, though, and New Orleans is a tough defense that leads the league in takeaways. Unless youíre desperate, Dobbs looks like heíd be better off on your bench.

Prediction: Saints 27, Vikings 23 ^ Top

Texans @ Bengals - (Green)
Line: CIN -6.0
Total: 46.5

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

Update: Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce have been ruled Out.

No Brainers: QB C.J. Stroud, WR Nico Collins, TE Dalton Schultz

Favorites: WR Tank Dell

While it feels a tad aggressive to label Stroud as a no-brainer, coming off last weekís historic performance, how could you bench him? One of the primary beneficiaries of Stroudís big day was Dell, who caught six passes for 114 yards and a pair of TDs. While Collins continues to lead the way this season, Dell has stepped up his game and now sits second on the team in yards (454) and is tied for the lead in TDs (4). Donít be afraid to ride a hot hand with Dell in your lineup as a WR3.

On the Fence: RB Devin Singletary

Coming into the season, it made sense that Houston would favor the run given their connection to San Francisco and young quarterback. The reality, however, is that the Texans have become a pass-first bunch with the combo of Singletary and Dameon Pierce (ankle) combining for 536 yards on 171 carries (3.1 YPC) and one TD. Cincyís run defense is a weakness, however, ranking 27th in the NFL at 129.8 yards per game and a healthy 5.0 yards per carry. With Pierce banged up, Singletary holds enough potential to be deployed as a flex this Sunday.

Fade: WR Noah Brown

Brown had a monster game versus the Bucs, posting a 6-153-1 line. Doubtless thatíll land him on plenty of waiver wire lists, but should it? Not necessarily. Brown is essentially filling the role of Robert Woods (foot), making his long-term outlook murky at best. We saw this from Brown a year ago when he started hot with Dallas before fading. As a short-term target, maybe Brown can deliver some value, but donít trust him as more than a flex in Week 10 -- and heís only that if Woods remains sidelined.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

Update: Tee Higgins has been ruled Out.

No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR JaíMarr Chase (back), WR Tee Higgins (hamstring)

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Tyler Boyd

With Higgins ascending back to no-brainer status, the only real weekly wild card when it comes to Cincinnatiís offense is Boyd. Heís had some decent showings of late, scoring in back-to-back games and then posting a season-high 56 yards in Week 9. Thatís flex production to be sure, but Boyd could be pressed into a larger role this Sunday if Chase is limited (or worse) due to his back injury. Monitor the situation, and if Boyd is set to operate as the No.2 receiver, he could fit a low-end WR3 slot.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Bengals 31, Texans 23 ^ Top

Browns @ Ravens - (Green)
Line: BAL -6.5
Total: 38.5

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: WR Amari Cooper

Favorites: TE David Njoku

Njoku has 22 receptions over his last five games, which includes a 6-46-0 effort versus the Ravens in Week 4, and heís scored in two straight outings. Those arenít huge numbers, and much of it came with Deshaun Watson on the shelf nursing a shoulder injury, but the 27-year-old has high-end talent at a shallow position. If youíre looking for someone with top-10 potential for Sunday, Njoku could deliver.

On the Fence: RB Jerome Ford

Back as the bell cow in Week 9 after filling a complementary role the previous game due to an ankle injury, Ford racked up 25 touches against Arizona. He didnít do a lot with them, managing just 77 yards without a score, but heís the engine that drives that offense, and he should get plenty of work against the Ravens. Baltimore sits eighth in the NFL against the run (91.9 yards/game), so expectations should be tempered, but anyone with Fordís level of usage holds at least RB3 value.

Fade: QB Deshaun Watson

For the first time since Week 3, Watson played an entire game, throwing for 219 yards and two TDs in a one-sided win over Arizona. It was a solid effort, but not one that should make you want to slide Watson into your lineup, especially given what the Ravens did in their last two home games against Jared Goff and Geno Smith. Keep Watson on your bench in Week 10.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews

Favorites: RB Gus Edwards

Edwards was the model of efficiency in Week 9, carrying the ball just five times but finishing with 52 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While he wasnít listed on the final injury report, Edwards did deal with a toe injury leading into last Sunday, and with the game getting out of hand he got to rest up. So, donít read into the fact that Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell combined for 23 carries against Seattle. Edwards is still the guy, and he's a low-end RB2 even versus Clevelandís sixth-ranked run D.

On the Fence: WR Zay Flowers

Baltimoreís top receiver over the first seven weeks, Flowers has a combined six catches for 30 yards the past two games. That includes just one target in Week 9 while Odell Beckham (7) and Rashod Bateman (5) were thrown to a dozen times. With such little work, Flowersí outlook is sure to be depressed entering Week 10. Donít be too quick to write the rookie off, though, as he still looks like the most talented option not named Andrews. Heís worth using as a WR3 with risk/reward potential.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 16 ^ Top

TITANS @ BUCCANEERS - (Mack)
Line: TB -3.0
Total: 39.5

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

No Brainers: RB Derrick Henry

Favorites: WR DeAndre Hopkins

For the most part this season, DeAndre Hopkins has been the victim of Tennesseeís limited passing game. But heís topped 128 receiving yards twice over the previous four games, including the highly efficient 4-catch/3-TD performance in rookie Will Levisí first start. Tampa Bayís pass defense has been dreadful this season, as theyíve allowed at least 312 passing yards in three of the last four games. Hopkins is Tennesseeís lone receiving threat who should be fed early and often this week.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: QB Will Levis

Levis struggled a bit last week against Pittsburgh, but the eyeball test tells you that he belongs in this league. It also tells you that he could be a ďthingĒ in fantasy this time next year, so long as Tennessee fortifies its receiving options. I like what Iíve seen so far in the young fella. Heís a nice stash, and may even be playable in a game or two down the stretch. But his inconsistency and lack of weapons will ultimately be his undoing in 2023.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: WR Mike Evans, RB Rachaad White

Favorites: WR Chris Godwin, QB Baker Mayfield

Chris Godwin leads the team in targets and receptions, but his lack of TDs keeps him in the low-end WR2 conversation. Despite his two-catch ugliness of a game last week, Godwin is a solid as they come and is a welcomed addition to any teamís starting lineup. The Titans are surprisingly one of the stingiest defenses when it comes to keeping the opposition from scoring through the air, so Godwinís limited TDs could continue this week. Still, he puts up productive numbers in spite of his lack of scoring. They donít come much better as a low-end WR2 in fantasy than Godwin.

Baker Mayfield has been on a nice run recently. Five TD tosses against one interception over the past three games ainít bad, but Tennessee may pose a credible resistance. While Tennesseeís two interceptions are the leagueís lowest, theyíve only given up eight TD passesógood for third in the NFL. And they have yet to give up a 300-yard passing day. Mayfield is still considered a startable option in Week 10, so put him in your lineup.

On the Fence: TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton was the trendy waiver wire selection heading into this week after his 6/70/2 stat line against Houston. Itís probably not advisable to base a playerís worth on his ceiling, but thatís what many fantasy players did. If nothing else, Ottonís performance last week showed the fantasy world what heís capable of. At best, heís a match-up play. At worst, heís roster depth.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Titans 16 ^ Top

49ers @ Jaguars - (Mack)
Line: SF -3.0
Total: 44.5

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey

Favorites: WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle

Sure, itís true that Brandon Aiyuk hasnít scored since Week 1 when he went off for 8/129/2 against Pittsburgh. But heís been a player with a solid floor ever since who can complement other explosive players on your roster. Heís coming off a109-yard performance as the teams No.1 option while Deebo Samuel was out. No team defends more pass plays than Jacksonville, meaning there should be plenty of targets coming Aiyukís way this week. The 334 pass plays against the Jagsí defense is last in the league. Volume is king, of course, in fantasy, and Aiyuk should get his fair share. Start him with confidence.

George Kittle is 4th in the league at tight end with 443 receiving yards and 5th in TDs with three. Tight end, as we know, can be the secret sauce when separating yourself from your competitor, and Kittle is one of those that gives his managers a decided advantage at the position. He has 14 receptions for 227 yards in his last two games, so he has great momentum going into this game. Jacksonville is in the bottom half of the league in defending the position, so expect a solid game from Kittle.

On the Fence: WR Deebo Samuel, QB Brock Purdy

My personal rule is I donít start a player who is returning for the first time from missing multiple games. However, thatís a hard-and-fast rule only for lower-body injuries. Samuel returns after missing the previous two games with a shoulder issue. Iíd still be a bit cautious of starting Samuel. In the previous three games combined before his extended absence, Samuel had 3 catches for 55 yards and zero scores. While he supplements his scoring with rushing stats, itís not enough to offset his recent shortcomings in the passing game. At his best, Samuel is a top-10 receiver in the league. But heís not always at his best, so fantasy managers must keep that in mind as they make lineup decisions.

Brock Purdy is in the middle of the worst stretch of his young career. After the seasonís first five games, Purdy had 9 TDs and no interceptions. The past three games, 3 scores and 5 INTs. Purdyís fantasy managers hope his Jekyll/Hyde season gets turned around this week against the 8th-ranked defense that is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 11 (tied with the Niners, incidentally enough). With Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts all on bye this week, Purdy may be some managersí only choice. If so, hope hard that he provides solid numbers.

Fade: N/A

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: RB Travis Etienne. TE Evan Engram

Favorites: WR Christian Kirk

Christina Kirk has turned into one of my favorites this year. While he hasnít cracked the century mark since Week 2, he continues to provide high-floor production for his managers. San Francisco has surprisingly been generous to receivers, as they rank 11th defending that position. That middle-of-the-road ranking for the Niners means Kirk should be productive. Expect solid low-end WR2 numbers this week.

On the Fence: QB Trevor Lawrence; WR Calvin Ridley

Those outside the fantasy community sometimes ask what we mean when we say a player is better in ďreal lifeĒ than in fantasy. If anyone asks you that question, refer them to Trevor Lawrence. Each week, heís ranked as a QB1, but his 9 passing TDs through eight games are 21st in the league and are fewer than players named Joshua Dobbs, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Jordon Love. Ouch. How is a player with not much fantasy production continuously ranked as a QB1? I donít get it. With byes and injuries, some may not have much of a choice but to start Lawrence. Take your anxiety meds if you fall into that category.

Calvin Ridley has been all over the place with his production this season. Heís gone from 101 receiving yards in Week 1, to 32 yards in Week 2; from 122 receiving yards in Week 5, to 30 in Week 6. That must be maddening for his managers, especially knowing they spent a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Ridley. Heís got to become more consistent if heís to be trusted in line-ups.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: 49ers 26, Jaguars 20 ^ Top

Lions @ Chargers - (Fessel)
Line: DET -3.0
Total: 48.5

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

No Brainers: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta

Favorites: QB Jared Goff, RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jared Goff finds himself as a borderline top 12 fantasy quarterback varying slightly based on scoring format. This week he draws a Chargers team that feeds production to opposing QBs (2508 passing yards allowed), and that makes Goff an easy start.

The Lions running back situation, to-date, has gone something like this: When David Montgomery is healthy, heís an RB1. When heís out, Jahmyr Gibbs is an RB1. The question now is whether that story has changed, with Gibbs getting a couple of weeks to show off out of Montyís shadow.

Itís unlikely that the Lions turn away from Montgomeryís trustworthiness as a ball handler, nor his vision and power. But Gibbs has surely developed some trust of his own, and the Lions may want to reduce Montgomeryís load a bit in an effort to keep him healthy. As such, itís likely that Montgomery sees the greater share of the rushing, but Gibbs sees bigger totals than he did behind Monty earlier this year. The Chargers have also given up the second most receptions to running backs (58). Gibbs should benefit from this, and both backs are no worse than RB2ís this week, with major RB1 upside.

On the Fence: WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams first two seasons have been greatly hampered by a college injury and a betting scandal, and when heís finally hit the field, heís shown flashes that reveal his talent, along with rawness that shows how damaging the time missed has been. Williams is playing about 40% of snaps (40%+ in 3 of 4 games this year). He also has a drop rate over 20%, and that just canít keep up. It remains to be seen as to whether or not he becomes a regular threat, but if youíre in a deep dynasty league and looking for help off the bench, Williams is bound to break off a big game, and the Chargers are as good as any team to allow it (4th most points to opposing wideouts).

Fade: N/A

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: WR Keenan Allen

Favorites: WR Austin Ekeler, TE Gerald Everett

The Lions have given up the 3rd fewest points per game to running backs this season. But Ekeler, 8th among RBs in points per game coming into the week, stands to see a lot of looks from Justin Herbert now that the offense is down not just Mike Williams, but also Joshua Palmer. Ekeler is unlikely to get to RB1 territory on the ground versus a Lions team that has surrendered just 461 rushing yards to RBs, but Ė as he often does Ė Ekeler has a good chance to get there through the air. Consider him a high end RB2, with RB1 upside.

Gerald Everett, meanwhile, has mostly been an afterthought in the Chargers offense this season (just 22nd among TE in FPts/G), but with injuries plaguing the offense in 2022, Everett flirted with Top 12 status among TEís and finished at No.15 in points per game. He now finds himself in similar circumstances, is playing a similar amount of snaps (60% this year versus 59% last year), and draws a Lions team that has given up the 7th most points to the position. The sum total makes him a low end TE1 this week.

On the Fence: QB Justin Herbert

Herbert is now looking at a somewhat similar situation to what he experienced for much of 2022, playing with an injury (fractured finger in non-throwing hand) as his wide receivers canít stay healthy. The Chargers thought they had a backup plan in place with Quentin Johnston, but Johnston has yet to show heís ready to take on a significant role. Even with Palmer going out, Johnston had just 2 catches for 14 yards on 3 targets in Week 9.

Herbertís production has been tarred by the Chargersí health issues, and heís just 22nd among quarterbacks in points per game over the last three weeks. The Lions are a middling team against QBs, and the one saving grace for Herbert is that his team is the underdog, which gives him a chance to reach QB1 numbers by volume. Still, heís arguably no more than a high end QB2 this week.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Lions 28, Chargers 20 ^ Top

Falcons @ Cardinals - (Fessel)
Line: ATL -2.5
Total: 43.5

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Tyler Allgeier, WR Drake London

It seems that Falcons coach Arthur Smith is letting opposing coaches dictate how he calls plays. Itís not usual for a coach to adjust their game plan based on their opponents, but Smith has drifted from what made the Falcons most successful in 2022 Ė imposing the run game, even if occasionally to a fault. Itís hard to imagine this continuing much longer, as the Falcons have lost their grip on even a share of first place in the NFLís weakest division.

Versus a Cardinals team that has given up the 3rd most points to opposing running backs and a whopping 13 rushing touchdowns, expect good things from both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. It would not be at all surprising if both see the end zone.

Robinson can be thought of as no worse than a borderline RB1 in a juicy matchup, while Algeier stands to make a good flex option.

Since a devastating 0 reception, 1 target game during Week 1, London has been targeted at least 6 times a game and at least 7 over the last five games. The severe limitations of the Falcons QBís this year have left London capped at 25th in points per game among WRís over the last five weeks, but Heinicke taking over provides at least a small upgrade.

Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson were all able to have relatively meaningful fantasy impacts last year with Heinicke, and London could be a top 25 WR the rest of the way even in what should be a more run-focused offense going forward.

The Cardinals are beatable versus receivers (12th most points allowed) and Kyler Murrayís return could make this game a bit more of a back-and-forth tussle than it might have been with Clayton Tune. London is justifiably used as a WR2 this week.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: TE Jonnu Smith, TE Kyle Pitts

Itís been fascinating to witness Jonnu Smith return to fantasy relevance, even behind Kyle Pitts. As such, one could say that Smith is as big a surprise in fantasy football this season as any.

Pitts, meanwhile, has yet to become what he was expected to be coming out of college, and thatís only partly due to the way the Falcons offense is built and the QB limitations. As of right now, Smith has been more relevant in fantasy football this year, but itís hard to look at either TE as a strong option this week. The Cardinals have recently held George Kittle to 9 yards and Mark Andrews to 40. Only one tight end has produced more than 50 receiving yards versus them this season (Darren Waller, Week 2).

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Marquise Brown

When Kyler Murray was healthy in 2022 and Marquise Brown was the teamís WR1, Brown landed several big performances including a 14-reception, 140-yard outing. Brown has yet to have a 100-yard performance this year, but with Murray back, that could change as early as this week.

On the Fence: QB Kyler Murray

Itís no secret that fantasy football scoring favors the mobile QB, and Kyler Murray has been a consistent finisher as a QB1 when healthy. Coming off an ACL tear, there are some fair questions to be asked about how quickly Murray can get up to speed, both mentally and physically. As such, itís a bit of a risk to start him this week, but if you are needy at QB, Murray does draw a Falcons team that has given up the 8th most points to opposing quarterbacks and he certainly has the potential upside to provide you a big day.

Fade: RB James Conner (and other Cardinals RBs)

Itís not clear yet whether James Conner will return this week, but heís back at practice and he has a real shot at playing. Supposing he does, it still looks best to sit him one more week, as the Falcons have been brutal to opposing running backs. One of Connerís best traits is the ability to punch in a score (46 career rushing TDs), but the Falcons have not surrendered a single rushing touchdown this season.

Prediction: Falcons 20, Cardinals 17 ^ Top

Commanders @ Seahawks - (Fessel)
Line: SEA -6.0
Total: 44.5

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Brian Robinson Jr.

After Robinson averaged a mere 10.5 touches between weeks 5 and 8, there was a lot of concern that he might be losing a grip on his role in the Washington offense. For those hung with him, it paid respectable dividends last week as he handled 19 touches (18 on the ground), picked up 67 yards and punched in a score. Having only had more than two receptions on one occasion this season, Robinson needs action early be productive, but the Seahawks have been vulnerable against the run Ė particularly in the red zone (9 rushing TD allowed) Ė so Robinson (5 rushing TDs) has a good chance to punch one in and have another day worthy of RB2 status.

On the Fence: WR Terry McLaurin, WR Jahan Dotson

The Seahawks have surrendered the 9th most points to wide receivers this year, but since getting healthy in the secondary, theyíve improved their numbers. In the last five weeks, theyíve surrendered the 5th fewest points to opposing wideouts, meaning things will likely not come easy for either Terry McLaurin nor Jahan Dotson. Dotson has finally come to life over the last couple of weeks, amassing 177 yards and 2 scores, with at least 8 targets in each of the last three games.

The biggest key will indeed be volume, with the Commanders probably falling behind and doing a lot of throwing late. While the Seahawks have been blanketing receivers over the last month and change, 4 of 5 receivers who saw at least 7 targets have had a Top 25 day. Consider McLaurin as a WR3 and Dotson to be somewhere on the fringe between a WR3 and 4 for this one.

Fade: QB Sam Howell

Howellís 2023 season-to-date may be the greatest example of how fantasy football sometimes diverges from reality (particularly at QB in standard scoring). Howell currently finds himself ranked just inside the Top 12 in most formats, while flirting with being sacked 100 times this season. Howell has been sacked just four times in the last two weeks (97 pass attempts), so while itís too soon to say, there may be some hope that he is making improvements in timing. Heíll likely need it to survive the season.

Howellís risk of being on his back all day and/or leaving the game early against a ferocious Seahawks front (27 sacks already) is far from the only concern here. Howell has played what has arguably been the softest schedule a QB could ask for, having already faced the Eagles vulnerable secondary twice, the Cardinals, Falcons and of course the leaky Bears. He also faced the Broncos earlier in the season when they were the kind of defense to give up 70 points.

Seattle presents a much taller task than nearly all of Howellís previous opponents, especially since their secondary got healthy. Howellís only tough match up Ė against the Bills Ė saw him throw 4 picks. Itís a good week not just to sit Howell, but see if you can trade him. His schedule is not easy moving forward.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: RB Kenneth Walker

Favorites: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett

After a good off-season in Seattle, including landing WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba through the draft, it seemed that Geno Smith was set for a solid follow up to his surprise 2022 performance. Injury issues to the offensive line, nagging injuries for DK Metcalf and signs of aging in Tyler Lockett have done a lot to derail that. Some regression was to be expected from Smith, but an avalanche of issues on offense has found Smith ranked just 27th among QBs in fantasy points per game. At this point, itís getting difficult to look him as more than an unexciting QB2 even on a good day, but yet Washington presents a hard-to-ignore get right moment.

Washington has surrendered the 3rd most points to opposing QBs, and that was while having talented pass rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young for the weeks first two months. Without a pass rush of significance, itís really hard to believe thereís a better team for an opposing QB to face. Theyíve been incredibly vulnerable to both passing and rushing from opposing quarterbacks, giving up 2380 yards through the air and 240 on the ground. Strangely, Geno Smith has just 53 rushing yards this season, but look at this week as the optimum for Geno and Seattle to get their feet back under themselves.

Not surprisingly, the Commanders have been equally torched by opposing receivers as they have been by opposing QBís. In a game where Geno can get a rhythm going, itís quite reasonable to expect Metcalf and Lockett Ė both appearing healthy this week Ė to have notable days, as well. Look for Top 25 performances out of both of them.

On the Fence: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigbaís targets and production have been ticking up, hitting his season high of 7 targets in two of the last three weeks, and also producing a season high of 63 yards receiving in both games. Njibga has also picked up a score in two of the last three weeks, so the rookie is starting to show growth. Also encouraging was a season high 82% snap share last week Ė easily his best. But Seattle was crushed by 34 points, and in a game that they should be handily favored this week, Njigba may see a snap share closer to 60-65%.

There are plenty of encouraging signs and the matchup is quite favorable, so Smith-Njigba is worth considering for the upside if youíre short at wideout this week. But as long as heís the third option in the offense, some volatility and risk remains.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Commanders 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Cowboys - (Caron)
Line: DAL -17.5
Total: 38.5

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Saquon Barkley

Since coming back from his three-game injury stint, Saquon Barkley has once again reestablished himself as one of the premiere every-down, bell-cow running backs in the NFL. Barkley has carried the ball an average of over 24 times per game during this most recent four-game stretch, adding at least three receptions in each contest as well. The matchup against the Cowboys is a tough one for any back and they did hold him in check to 12 carries for 51 yards back in Week 1, but Barkley is just seeing too strong of a workload to consider benching him in normal leagues.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: All Giants WRs

Weíve seen some moments from WaníDale Robinson, but this is an overall no-go for the Giantsí passing game. The Cowboys have conceded just the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season, including an absolutely dominant performance when they played New York back in Week 1. Giants WRs combined for a pathetic 41 total receiving yards in that contest and that was with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Now theyíre working with Tommy DeVito behind center. This might be an absolute trainwreck of a game for the New York offense.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorites: RB Tony Pollard

The disappointing season for Cowboys running back Tony Pollard continued this past week as he failed to reach double-digit fantasy points for the fourth time in his past four games. The explosive plays just have not been there for this once-budding superstar here in 2023 and now fantasy managers have to be considering benching him for more fringy options.

While things have been bad as of late, thereís actually reason to believe that Pollardís season could begin to turn around as early as this week. He has a stretch of very beatable matchups coming up, starting with this Week 10 contest against the Giants. Pollard actually had his best fantasy game of the season when he played the Giants back in Week 1, as he rushed for 70 yards on just 14 carries, including two touchdowns while adding a couple of catches for 12 yards in the passing game.

Things havenít gotten much better for the Giants since that Week 1 drubbing either. Theyíve given up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including some big fantasy performances to the likes of James Conner, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and both Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert. Only two teams (Washington and Buffalo) failed to have a running back achieve double-digit fantasy points against this defense.

On the Fence: QB Dak Prescott, TE Jake Ferguson

Both quarterback Dak Prescott and tight end Jake Ferguson have been hot as of late, so donít feel bad about starting either of them if theyíre the best options you have. The only real worry in this game is that the Cowboys could get out to a lead in this game and may end up running clock for most of the afternoon which would really limit the passing gameís upside. Weíve seen the Cowboys smash opposing teams this season and itís rarely led to big games for the passing game, including back in Week 1 when Prescott threw for just 143 yards and no touchdowns despite the Cowboys beating this same Giants team by a 40-0 margin.

Fade: Cowboys Wide Receivers (other than CeeDee Lamb)

Weíve seen some decent fantasy weeks this season from Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup, as well as even Jalen Tolbert this past week, but the only wide receiver in the Cowboys offense who is seeing consistent targets is CeeDee Lamb. Team management seems to have identified this as a position of need, as well, considering that they signed veteran wide receiver Martavis Bryant to a deal during the week. Although Bryant doesnít figure to play a big role here in Week 10 if heís even active at all, his signing does indicate that the team doesnít have much confidence in the ancillary pass-catching weapons on the roster, and neither should fantasy managers.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Giants 10 ^ Top

Jets @ Raiders - (Fessel)
Line: NYJ -1.0
Total: 36.5

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: RB Breece Hall

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilsonís incredible talent is undeniable. Some weeks, though, the Jets QB situation is just going to give Wilson invisible cement feet. Wilson is being targeted at an incredible rate Ė 59 times in the last five games Ė but only has one 100-yard game to show for it (exactly a 100 yards) and no touchdowns during that span. Most weeks, despite a limited ceiling with inaccurate Zach Wilson, Garrett is still a high floor wide receiver 2 thanks to huge target volume, but that may be a taller order against a Raiders defense that has given up the 7th fewest yards to receivers.

Fade: QB Zach Wilson

While the Raiders have once again struggled in 2023, defensively these are not the Raiders of the last several years (if not two decades). The Raiders of old might lead a fantasy owner to consider starting almost any QB against them. There are some teeth finally growing in this defense, which has given up the 9th fewest points to opposing QBs. Unfortunately, even baby teeth are probably too much for the Jets former 1st round pick to overcome the bite of.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: RB Josh Jacobs

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Davante Adams

Well, itís come down to this. Even with Josh McDaniels deposed and new life in the Raiders locker room, Davante Adams not only didnít enjoy the squeaky wheel treatment, but he did very little with the target total he was given (4-34-0 on 7 targets). At this point, now five weeks removed from a 60+ yard performance and without a touchdown since Week 3, there are fair questions to ask about the impact of Adams age, not just situation.

One canít give up on an arguably Hall of Fame talent, but itís anyoneís guess where the rest of Adamís season goes from here. If you invested heavily in Adams, you very likely canít afford to sit him now and wait for signs of life. But against a Jets defense that has given up the fewest points per game to opposing wide receivers (and just 1 touchdown!), you may have to breathe deep and hold your nose before plugging him into your starting lineup this week.

Fade: WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Hunter Renfrow

Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has just 6 total targets in the last two weeks, after seeing 7 or more targets in all but one of his first six games. Couple that with the previously mentioned difficulty of going against the Jets defense and Meyers appears to be a very wise sit this week.

Meanwhile, last week Hunter Renfrow had a very promising first quarter sans Josh McDaniels, quickly grabbing 2 receptions for 32 yards, but he rarely saw the field after that. While Renfrow may see the field a bit more in a game the Raiders are likely to be trailing (let alone jumping out to a big lead), even an unexpectedly high snap rate probably wouldnít produce a worthwhile pay out in Week 10.

Prediction: Jets 20, Raiders 13 ^ Top

Broncos @ Bills - (Caron)
Line: BUF -7.0
Total: 46.5

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Javonte Williams

Broncos running back Javonte Williams has seen his snap share grow from 35 percent to 66 percent over his past three games, while his rushing attempt share went from 50 percent up to 82 percent over the same stretch. Williams saw a whopping 30 touches the last time we saw him, during the Broncosí shockingly dominant victory over the Chiefs back in Week 8.

The Bills have given up productive fantasy days to Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Rhamondre Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne, and Devon Achane in consecutive weeks, so look for the Broncos to implement a similar offensive game plan to what was successful for them against the Chiefs. This should be another heavy-workload game for Williams.

On the Fence: WR Courtland Sutton

Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton hasnít caught more than six passes in a game since all the way back in Week 3, but itís tough to deny that heís been one of the leagueís most effective per-catch receivers this season. Sutton has scored a touchdown in five of his past six games overall, including each of his past three, and heís only been held out of the end zone twice so far this season.

While he still hasnít delivered a 20-point fantasy performance despite all of this red zone success, Sutton has managed to be a reliable WR2 and with the Bills only being a middle-of-the-pack defense against opposing wide receivers, there arenít many reasons to sit Sutton here in Week 10.

Fade: WR Jerry Jeudy

While Jerry Jeudy finally got into the end zone for the first time this season when we saw him last back in Week 8, he did so on just two catches - a season-low number for the former first-round NFL Draft pick. Jeudy has now failed to exceed six receptions in any game and heís averaging just over 12 yards per reception on the season, meaning that heís failed to be even a WR2 in any game this season.

Sure, a week off and a chance to get healthy might have done this whole Broncos offense some good, but we need to see him produce some bigger numbers before itís time to trust Jeudy back in fantasy starting lineups.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs

Favorites: TE Dalton Kincaid

The breakout for tight end Dalton Kincaid is officially underway as the rookie has now exceeded 15 fantasy points in three straight games as the Billsí TE1. This past weekís performance is probably the most exciting of the bunch, as well, as he finally saw his first double-digit target day, catching 10 of a possible 11 passes that came his way for 81 yards. Kincaid is a superstar-level talent who just needed the opportunity and now he has it.

To make things even better, he now faces a Denver defense that has been terrible across the board, including against tight ends, where theyíve conceded the fourth-most fantasy points to the position on the year. While theyíve given up only three touchdowns to the position on the year, theyíve still been gashed by the position as a whole and thereís plenty of reason to trust Kincaid as a mid-to-high-end TE1 this week and going forward.

On the Fence: RB James Cook

We knew that the Bills were a pass-heavy offense when we drafted running back James Cook this offseason, so it should come as no surprise that there will be games where heís just not utilized much. That can be extremely frustrating to deal with and it makes sense that many fantasy managers are considering benching Cook despite the fact that he has one of the best possible on-paper matchups.

Cook faces a Denver defense that has been absolutely terrorized by opposing running backs this season. We all know about the humiliating performance they had against the Dolphins, but that hasnít been the only beating theyíve taken from running backs. Five different running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points against this defense and while they looked good against the Chiefs this past week, the overall trend has been very productive running back fantasy days against this Broncos defense.

We do need to be at least somewhat concerned that the Bills brought in Leonard Fournette off the streets, but Fournette is yet to play a snap and itís very unlikely that heíll suddenly step in and take a lead-back role here in Buffalo this week.

Fade: WR Gabriel Davis

Davis continues to be one of the most frustrating fantasy players to manage. Week 8 saw him catch a season-high nine passes for 87 yards and a touchdown as he earned an impressive 12 targets against the Buccaneers. That, of course, came right after a one-catch, six-yard game against the Patriots, so many fantasy managers didn’t even have him in their lineups during his big performance. Then after the big game against the Buccaneers, fantasy managers were ready to get hurt again - and they did - as Davis went right back to his old ways, catching zero passes on just two targets against the Bengals. Not only was the production nonexistent, but Davis somehow finished tied for fifth on the Bills in targets for the week.

This type of roller coaster production is just wildly unpredictable and it’s not something that we really want to be dealing with in anything other than extremely deep leagues where we’re starting four or more wide receivers that can potentially offset Davis’ bad weeks.

We know that the Broncos are terrible and maybe the Bills get everyone involved in a huge blowout win here, but Denver has actually been quietly good against opposing wide receivers as of late. In fact, they haven’t allowed a single wide receiver to reach even 75 yards receiving against them since all the way back in Week 4. Stay away from Davis in this one.

Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 20 ^ Top