With Green Bay’s defense dominating and a Thanksgiving
matchup with the Lions on tap, Matt LaFleur took the air out of
the ball in Week 12. In fact, only one player finished with more
than two receptions. That was Watson, who caught five of seven
targets for 49 yards to lead the way. In five games since returning
from a torn ACL that he suffered back in January, the speedy wideout
has averaged 3.4 receptions and 57 yards per game while scoring
twice.
Matthew Golden (shoulder) didn’t play versus Minnesota, but is
listed as Questionable. Savion Williams (foot) has not practiced
and Jayden Reed (shoulder) remains on IR – both are Out. The two
most reliable targets for the Packers right now are Romeo Doubs
and Watson, and the latter has more big-play potential and has
been looking better and better. After watching Wan’Dale Robinson
carve up Detroit’s secondary for a 9-156-1 line, Watson is worth
a flier as a WR3 or flex.
When the Packers made Jacobs (knee) a last-minute inactive this
past Sunday, Wilson became the focal point of the offense. He
was up to the task. The former undrafted free agent routinely
turned short gains into solid runs through a mix of elusiveness
and power. He finished the game with 30 touches, 125 yards, and
2 TDs. Jacobs is expected to return in Motown on Thursday, but
it seems unlikely that the team will make him the bell cow due
to his sore knee as well as Wilson’s performance versus
the Vikings. Even with Jacobs back, Wilson could be used as a
flex with a little juice.
Still feeling the effects of a shoulder injury suffered against
the Giants in Week 11, Love attempted just 21 passes versus Minnesota,
completing 14 for 139 yards. It was the third time in four games
that he’s finished without a touchdown pass, and his third
straight outing of less than 200 yards. Love, who handed off with
his right hand to protect the left shoulder, will doubtless do
more this Thursday, but even in Week 1 when the Packers cruised
to a 27-13 win over Detroit, Love had just 188 yards and 2 TDs,
so nothing points to him putting up QB1 numbers on Turkey Day.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Over the last two games, Montgomery has 15 total touches for
74 yards. Compare that to Gibbs, who has 43 touches. If you’re
an optimist, you can say Montgomery is fresh heading into the
matchup, and there’s some truth in that. Detroit went to
overtime with the Giants, and their defense played 77 snaps and
spent over 37 minutes on the field. It makes sense that the Lions
would try to possess the ball here and limit what’s asked
of their D on short rest. If that is the approach, Montgomery
should be a big part of it. Then again, it’s worth noting
that Detroit tried to play bully ball with the Packers in Week
1, and it didn’t work with Montgomery gaining 43 yards on
15 touches. Despite some risk, Montgomery is worth trying as an
RB3/flex.
For two weeks, it appeared the No. 1 beneficiary of the switch
to Dan Campbell calling plays was Williams, who’d had a
number of quiet games under John Morton. Then, after posting a
combined 10-207-2 line in Weeks 10 and 11, Williams was shut out
versus the Giants, going without a catch on three targets. Suddenly,
we’re back to square one with the high-risk/high-reward
designation. In Week 1, Jamo had four receptions for 23 yards
versus the Packers. Green Bay does a good job of limiting explosive
plays -- their 5.9 yards allowed per attempt is the best in the
NFL -- which is where Williams shines, so he's a risky WR3 this
week.
Coming off a rough night in Philadelphia, Goff was solid against
the Giants, throwing for 279 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. He’ll
get his second taste of the Packers on Thanksgiving. If the Eagles
game was the low point of Goff’s season, Week 1 in Green
Bay was a close second. He passed for 225 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT
with much of that, including the touchdown, coming late when Detroit
trailed by 21 points. The Packers have allowed just 52 points
in November, and if they can get a lead and pin their ears back,
that pass rush can make life miserable. This isn’t a week
you want to rely on Goff.
Kareem Hunt’s recent stretch of dominance can certainly be at
least partially credited to Isiah Pacheco being out, but the truth
is that the veteran has been the more productive back throughout
the rest of the season, too. Hunt has now finished with double-digit
PPR points six times compared to Pacheco’s two, and he’s fully
entrenched as the team’s goal line back.
The Cowboys have conceded the fifth-most points to the position
so far this season and 10 different backs have scored 10 or more
points against them throughout the season. They’ve also
given up 18 or more points to five different backs, so there’s
the possibility that the Chiefs run all over them in this one.
We don’t yet know what the backfield split will be, but
given Hunt’s recent success and the reality that Pacheco
will be in his first game back since Week 8, things look good
for managers who are hoping to ride this recent hot streak.
The rollercoaster of Patrick Mahomes’ 2025 season continued
this past week when the QB somehow managed to throw for 352 yards
and rush for 30 yards while failing to throw a touchdown pass
for the second time in three games. Mahomes has been held to one
or zero passing touchdowns in seven of his 11 games, but he’s
thrown for three or four touchdowns in the other four games.
Although he’s in the “on the fence” category
this week due to the absurdly high expectations that have been
put on him from the fantasy community, Mahomes really could be
looked at as a “Favorite,” or even a “No-Brainer.”
This matchup against the Cowboys defense is as good as it gets.
No team has conceded more points to quarterbacks than the Cowboys
have and they’ve given up at least two touchdowns (passing
and rushing) to all but one QB they’ve faced.
He might be a bit frustrating at times, but this is the kind
of matchup that Mahomes can exploit—especially on the national
stage where he seems to always thrive.
Andy Reid confirmed that Isiah Pacheco will make his return to
the field on Thanksgiving Day, but that doesn’t necessarily
mean that he should make a return to your fantasy lineup. Pacheco
missed each of the past three games, but the truth is that he
wasn’t very productive even before he got hurt. Pacheco
has scored just one rushing touchdown this season and he’s
also only caught 11 total passes, so his ceiling is practically
nonexistent. Add in the fact that Kareem Hunt has been an absolute
workhorse for the Chiefs these past few weeks and it’s very
difficult to imagine a scenario where he re-takes the role as
the team’s top back here in Week 13. The matchup against
the Cowboys is great, but he’s fool’s gold right now.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
The incredible run by George Pickens in his first season with
the Cowboys has been the talk of the fantasy world, but don’t
let that convince you that CeeDee Lamb hasn’t also been
an excellent asset. Lamb got injured in Week 3, but otherwise
he’s managed to score at least 11 fantasy points in all
seven other games he’s played, including three 100-yard
performances. He’s failed to get into the end zone at the
high rate he has throughout the majority of his career, but Lamb’s
still been one of the most reliable receivers in fantasy.
He does have a tough matchup here against a Kansas City defense
that is top-10 at defending against wide receivers throughout
the season, but Lamb’s volume alone makes him a near lock
to be at least a WR2. He’s been targeted an average of over
10 times per game in the seven full games he’s played. Don’t
get cute and bench Lamb because of the matchup.
Volume continues to fuel Javonte Williams’ fantasy relevance,
but his per-touch efficiency has certainly waned in recent weeks.
Williams has failed to get into the end zone in three straight
games despite averaging over 20 touches per game over that stretch.
Williams continues to control the backfield in a high-powered
Dallas offense, so there’s good reason to believe that he can
turn things around and get back into RB1 range, but he’s in an
extremely difficult situation this week. The Chiefs have given
up the fourth-fewest points per game to running backs thus far
in 2025 and they’ve allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season.
They held Jonathan Taylor to just 58 yards on 16 carries this
past week, so volume alone won’t get it done for Williams—he’s
going to need to improve his efficiency as well.
Williams is useful enough to be in RB2 range, but this isn’t
going to be an easy one for him.
Jake Ferguson’s early-season dominance feels like a distant
memory as the season goes on. He ended up catching five passes
for 60 yards this past week, but it’s worth considering
that the Cowboys were in an extremely negative game script early
as they fell behind by multiple scores, and Ferguson still managed
to see just six targets throughout the game. He’s now been
held to fewer than eight targets in six straight games, after
averaging nearly 10 targets per game through the first five weeks
of the season.
The healthy return of CeeDee Lamb has relegated Ferguson to the
third option in the passing game which is still enough for him
to be a bottom-end TE1/high-end TE2 which he’s been throughout
most of his career, but he’s no longer the locked-in TE1
that he was early on. Add in the Chiefs’ defense that ranks
in the top-10 in fewest points given up to tight ends this season
and it’s easy to see why fantasy managers should be skeptical
about Ferguson’s ceiling here in Week 13.
For the first time since Week 2, Burrow (toe) is expected to
start for the Bengals. It may be too late to salvage their playoff
hopes, though then again, Cincinnati only trails the Ravens by
three games and they play twice in the next three weeks. Burrow
was off to his usual slow start before the injury, and he could
have some rust after such a lengthy absence, but he steps into
a strong matchup with an opponent he’s had a lot of success against.
Baltimore’s pass defense has stabilized after a terrible start,
now ranking 24th in yards allowed, but that could be fool’s gold.
In five games since returning from the bye, the Ravens have faced
Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, J.J. McCarthy, Dillon Gabriel,
Shedeur Sanders, and Tyrod Taylor -- that is hardly a who’s who
of NFL QBs. A year ago, Burrow averaged 410 yards and 4.5 TDs
in two tight losses to Baltimore. He’s a risky play after such
a long layoff, but the upside is considerable.
One thing working against Burrow is the absence of Tee Higgins
(concussion), who sustained a concussion versus the Pats in Week
12 and was almost immediately ruled out on a short week. With
Higgins down, Iosivas becomes the No. 2 receiver. It’s a role
he actually filled against New England while Chase served his
one-game suspension, and the Princeton product finished with four
catches (on seven targets) and 61 yards with Joe Flacco at the
helm. While never a steady contributor, Iosivas has had his moments,
including catching a half-dozen touchdown passes in 2024. Higgins
posted a 9-83-2 line in his lone matchup with the Ravens a year
ago, so if Iosivas can even approach that level of production
he’d deliver starting value. Deploy him as a flex.
Fade: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Given Baltimore’s recent struggles offensively, you could make
a case that Henry is the only true no-brainer right now. That
being said, Jackson’s weekly ceiling is as high as anyone, and
he tossed eight TD passes against Cincinnati in 2024. As for Flowers,
his numbers are decent enough that he should be able to function
as your WR3 most weeks, even though he hasn’t scored or topped
100 yards since Week 1. With that out of the way, we arrive at
the only true weekly fantasy decision amongst the Ravens skill
players -- DeAndre Hopkins and Rashod Bateman (ankle) have become
unplayable. Yardage wise, Andrews is on pace for a career-low
440 yards, which is 104 below what he did in 2023 when he played
in just 10 games. What keeps the veteran viable are his six touchdowns,
which is second to Henry (9) and at least double anyone else on
the roster. This is a good week to roll with Andrews. No one has
allowed more yards per game or TDs via the air than the Bengals,
and Andrews posted a combined 10-123-1 line versus Cincy last
season.
Trying to predict which Bears pass-catcher will be useful for
fantasy in a given week has been a crapshoot so far in 2025, at
least quarterback Caleb Williams has been productive enough to
be a top-12 option at the position. The second-year starter hasn’t
been consistent, but when he’s been good he’s been
bordering on great and that’s what fantasy managers have
to be hoping for here in Week 13 as he faces the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s defense has been middle-of-the-pack at defending
opposing QBs, but they’re coming off of their worst performance
of the season when they allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 354
yards and a pair of touchdowns against them, while also adding
a rushing score. While they’ve mostly held opposing passers out
of the end zone through the air, they have quietly allowed four
rushing scores to the position on the year—among the most in the
league—and they now have a tough task against Williams who himself
has a tendency to run the ball near the goal line.
Williams is low-end QB2 this week as the Eagles have often kept
their games low-scoring, but if Philadelphia ends up scoring a
good bit of points themselves then that could really unlock Williams’
potential to produce big numbers with more volume in this one.
Rome Odunze’s recent production has been extremely frustrating
as he’s been held under 10 fantasy points in three of his
past four outings. Nevertheless, optimism should remain as the
volume he’s seeing has been on par, if not slightly better
than what he’d seen earlier on this season. Odunze, in fact,
has been targeted an average of nearly eight times per game over
his past five contests, which leads the team, and he should be
in line to be a big part of the offense again.
The high volatility mixed with a potential low-scoring struggle
with the Eagles makes Odunze a tough start here in Week 13. He’s
probably still flex-worthy, so don’t completely write him
off, but temper your expectations.
The Chicago running game caught many managers off guard this
past week when—for the first time all season—D’Andre
Swift was out-touched by rookie Kyle Monangai in a game where
both players were healthy. Monangai has now carried the ball at
least 10 times in three of the Bears’ past four games and
while it’s too early to say that he has overtaken Swift
as the lead back, there’s plenty of reason to believe that
this will be a dreaded split backfield that will leave managers
scratching their heads throughout the remainder of the season.
Add in a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that hasn’t
allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and this feels like a matchup
to avoid and focus on collecting more information about the backfield
for use in future weeks.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
The first half of the 2025 season was certainly one to forget
for Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown, but fantasy managers have
to be feeling at least a bit more optimistic following his biggest
game of the season this past week. Sure, it was against the Cowboys
and their absolute trainwreck of a defense, but Brown caught a
season-high eight passes on 10 targets, compiling 110 yards and
a touchdown on the day—a reminder that the physical ability
is still there for this former superstar wide receiver.
Brown now carries that momentum into a matchup that has playoff
implications against a Bears team that’s won eight of their past
nine contests. They have, however, been a team that’s been exploitable
by opposing wide receivers throughout the year, as they rank in
the top-12 in points conceded to the position. 16 different receivers
have already produced 10 or more fantasy points against them this
season and while that’s not some difficult number to achieve,
it does show that the opposing team’s top receivers have been
consistently delivering usable fantasy numbers against the Bears.
With DeVonta Smith dealing with both injury and sickness, Brown
fits the bill as the Eagles’ top pass-catching weapon and he should
continue his trend of solid opportunities in this one.
Rarely has a borderline RB1 felt like more of a disappointment
than Saquon Barkley has here in 2025. Following his mediocre performance
against the Cowboys in Week 12, Barkley has now been held to fewer
than 15 PPR fantasy points in five of his past six games and there
may not be a ton of hope for a big game here. Not only is Barkley
dealing with a groin injury that kept him out of practice early
in the week, but he’s also facing a Bears defense that has
only allowed one back they’ve faced to reach 20 PPR fantasy
points all season long.
As long as he’s active, he’s probably in essentially
all lineups, but with him struggling with rushing efficiency the
way he has in recent weeks (averaging fewer than 3.5 yards per
carry in four of his past five games), he’s probably a player
to avoid in DFS.
He’s been by far the more consistent of the two Eagles
wide receivers this season, but Smith does carry some worry for
fantasy managers as we look toward this Friday’s big game.
Smith does not have an official designation heading into the contest,
but he missed time early in the week with a plethora of ailments,
including injuries to his chest and shoulder, as well as an undisclosed
illness.
The Eagles will likely do their best to limit their pass attempts
in this one as they have throughout most of the season, so be
careful with this one. The matchup looks good on paper, but there
are plenty of reasons to have skepticism about Smith’s chances
to deliver for fantasy managers in Week 13.
New play calling, and trading Tank Bigsby to the Eagles have
resurrected Etienne’s fantasy value. In fact, over the last four
games, he’s averaged 18 FPts/G. Bhayshul Tuten has big-play potential,
but is seeing only a handful of touches each game. The Titans
don’t pose a significant threat to his rushing numbers, but Trevor
Lawrence might vulture another rushing TD. Etienne (RB14) is rostered
by many playoff-bound fantasy teams, since his ADP was RB31 back
in September.
It has taken injuries to QBs Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Brock
Purdy, but Lawrence is back among the top-12 QBs in total fantasy
points. His 5 rushing TDs are significant, considering a modest
14:11 TD-to-INT ratio. WR Brian Thomas Jr. did practice in full
Thursday, and TE Brenton Strange is back. The Jaguars (7-4) are
just a game behind the Colts (8-3) and need to take advantage
of their remaining two games against these Titans.
Parker Washington (age 23) is now in his 3rd NFL season. He has
the juice, it just took injuries ahead of him to get a chance
for quality playing time. Over his last four games, he’s
averaged double-digit fantasy points and has 2 TDs. Even with
Brian Thomas Jr. expected to return, consider Washington a possible
flex option.
Following his trade from the struggling Raiders, Jakobi Meyers
was rushed into a significant role because of injuries to Jaguars
WRs Travis Hunter, and Brian Thomas Jr. The 7-year veteran has
responded with 11.4 and 15.0 FPts/G over his last two games, and
is earning the trust of HC Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence. I’m
looking for another top-35 WR game from JAG-obi Meyers.
Thomas is among the bigger fantasy disappointments so far in
2025. His huge rookie season 87/1282/10 had us all wanting (and
expecting) more. That’s what makes 30/420/1 sting so much.
His 7 drops in only 8 appearances on the season are inconceivable
for fantasy owners who invested an early 2nd-round pick during
their draft. A troublesome ankle injury is partially to blame,
but hopefully coverage spread among Washington, Meyers and Strange
gets Thomas’ FPts/G back to the mid double-digits over the
next few weeks.
Strange came off IR last week to deliver 5/5/93/0 for the Jaguars,
and is a borderline TE1/TE2 this week. The return of Brian Thomas
Jr. and Jakobi Meyers’ expanding role in the offense have me a
little concerned, in a game where Jacksonville should be playing
with a lead. I’ll rank Strange higher in Week 14 (when TEs Kittle,
Hunter Henry and Theo Johnson are on a bye).
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
I’ll “consider” Ward in daily tournaments this
week. He’s earned that…plus he’s cheap, will
be minimally-owned and the Jags offer 24.2 FPts/G to opposing
QBs. Since Mike McCoy took over as interim-HC, and especially
since the Week 10 bye, there have been some encouraging signs.
Notably, against a tough Seattle defense last week, Ward managed
42/28/256/1 passing and 6/37/1 rushing for 26.5 fantasy points
(QB5).
I’ve been slow to climb aboard this rookie’s band wagon, but
have you noticed Chimere Dike? A total of 4 TDs (punt returns
of 67 and 90 yds) and 43/28/252/2 receiving have my attention.
According to NFL Stats, Dike’s performances at the 2025 Combine
were historically significant. His 4.34 dash, 38-1/2” vertical
and 10’8” broad jumps put his Relative Athletic Score in the top
1% of all WRs available in the last 38 years!
Ayomanor has been fighting a hamstring injury the last couple
weeks, but did get in limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday.
Back-to-back TDs against the Rams and Colts in Weeks 2 and 3 brought
the 4th-round rookie to the attention of fantasy owners. However,
he’s averaging just 2.5 receptions/week in his seven games
since, and that won’t support our fantasy playoff ambitions.
T.T. Pollard-Spears currently ranks RB12, with 165.7 total fantasy
points. Or should I say combined fantasy points? The duo has 681
rushing yards (3 TDs) and 48 receptions for 316 receiving yards
(0 TDs). This is a less-productive version of the Seattle RB-timeshare,
so it’s hard to get excited about the Titans backfield right
now.
Okonkwo is a no-go. Even in a contract-year, against the generous
Jaguars (17.7 FPts/G to opposing TEs), the risk/reward is top
heavy. Chig is averaging 5.58 FPts/G over his last five outings.
You could say he’s “overdue” (like I did last
week), but after four years, he remains a low-floor and low-ceiling
option.
Outside of Bijan Robinson, there’s not a ton to be excited about
in a Falcons offense that’s going to be without both Michael Penix
Jr. and Drake London in Week 13. If we’re looking for something
to be optimistic about, that was the situation the team was in
heading into Week 12 when Darnell Mooney turned in his best fantasy
game of the season—a 16.4-point day against a solid New Orleans
pass defense.
Of course, that performance came from just three targets—all
of which he managed to haul in—and his first touchdown of
the year. The consistency certainly isn’t there for Mooney
and he has a difficult matchup against a good Jets secondary,
but he is certainly the team’s WR1 right now and that’s
not completely worthless for fantasy purposes.
The chances of Kyle Pitts finally breaking out are looking and
slimmer by the day. With Penix out, Pitts has played with Kirk
Cousins for two games and the results are not only as bad, but
somehow slightly worse than they were with Penix. Pitts has seen
just eight targets in these past two weeks, including this past
week when the team was without stud WR Drake London. Sure, he
could always make a big play or get into the end zone, but Kyle
Pitts has become a player we just cannot start in typical 12-team
fantasy leagues.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
With Garrett Wilson still out, the only player in the Jets offense
who’s seeing any sort of consistent volume is running back Breece
Hall. The pre-season rumors of him losing touches to the other
backs on the roster have been completely dispelled and he’s continuing
to dominate the opportunities.
Unfortunately, despite all the work, big games from Hall have
continued to be few and far between. Sure, he’s managed
to perform as a borderline RB1 for the season, so he’ll
be someone who managers will want to have in their lineups in
most situations, but this pathetic Jets offense continues to limit
Hall’s scoring opportunities. He’s scored just three
times on the year despite averaging over 4.5 yards per carry and
catching 28 passes.
It’s way too early to write off rookie tight end Mason Taylor
as a bust, but his chances of a big-time fantasy football breakout
appear to be slim heading down the stretch here in 2025. Taylor
had a few moments of promise earlier in the season, but he’s now
failed to exceed seven fantasy points in five of his past six
games. Yes, the team is in desperate need of passing game playmakers,
but with Tyrod Taylor and/or Justin Fields behind center, the
volume just isn’t there for a tight end to be a useful fantasy
contributor.
It feels like the easy way out for this segment, but if you roster
Stafford (QB5), Nacua (WR4), or Adams (WR6 w/12 TDs), you’re starting
them, even against a good Panthers pass defense. Williams seems
like the slacker of this bunch, “way down” at RB9 for the year.
He’s sure to bounce back from a bad showing (5.8 FPts) against
the Buccaneers in Week 12, as Carolina allows 24.5 FPts/G to opposing
RBs. I expect fantasy production in the 16-19 point range, since
the Blake Corum experiment isn’t a worry.
Along with TE35 Tyler Higbee (IR, ankle), I’ve never seen three
TEs on the same offense bunched so closely together, this late
in a season. Each has about 50 total fantasy points and 2 or 3
TDs on the season. Heck, even TE Terrance Ferguson has 12/5/138/1
on the year. Injuries have popped-up for each of the top 3, creating
a TE du jour situation. Even with Higbee out, there’s no way to
accurately predict the TE distribution.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Dowdle is averaging a healthy 5 YPC, and has been the lead dog
for the Panthers since midseason. The Rams rush defense has held
RBs to 3.8 YPC, and has allowed only 2 rushing TDs all season.
Maybe Dowdle (and Hubbard) can do some damage through the air?
That’s not promising either, as RBs average 31 yards/game receiving,
and stud Christian McCaffrey is the only RB to score a receiving
TD.
Young has posted 14 FPts or fewer in six of his games this season,
and on a short week, we could be looking at another. Carolina
is a surprising 6-6 on the season, with upset wins over the Cowboys,
Packers and Falcons (twice). A big performance from the 5’10”
Young against the Super Bowl favorite Rams, winners of their last
six, seems unlikely.
With just 27 catches in 10 games, “Legette Math” is both straightforward
and disappointing. In 26 career games, XL has struggled to achieve
7.5 FPts/G. In fact, he’s managed only 8 receptions in his last
4 games, while speedster Jalen Coker has 11.
You have no reason to reach for Ja’Tavion, even in weekly
tournaments. His 34 yards aren’t going to be a difference
maker, but they almost qualify him as an honorary member of the
Rams TEBC.
There hasn’t been much to get excited about in New Orleans
this season, but a healthy season from Chris Olave had led to
him finally reaching his potential as a fantasy WR1. Olave has
been a model of consistency in this bad Saints offense, having
compiled at least 50 receiving yards in all but one game this
season (and he still scored a touchdown in that one). The massive
spike week games haven’t been there due to the horrendous
situation at quarterback, but Olave is a player who shouldn’t
be benched in any matchup right now. The Dolphins will put that
theory to the test as they boast the league’s seventh-best
defense against wide receivers, but this is still a player you’ll
want in your lineup.
It is worth noting that Olave is dealing with a back injury,
so managers will want to keep an eye on the situation.
With Alvin Kamara (ankle) having missed practice on Thursday,
it’s now looking increasingly likely that the Saints will be without
their star running back this weekend. While there hasn’t been
any confirmation about Kamara’s status or which back would step
in to replace him, last week’s game would seem to indicate that
Devin Neal will be given the first crack. Neal played a season-high
59 snaps in relief of Kamara and he managed to touch the ball
12 times, including five receptions.
Neal is also dealing with an ankle injury and was limited in
practice on Thursday, so managers will need to pay close attention
to this entire backfield situation. We still don’t know for certain
that Kamara is out, Neal could be out, and that would likely mean
a big boost for third-string running back Audric Estime as well
as utility knife player Tayson Hill.
Assuming Neal is active and Kamara is not, managers can look
at Neal as a flex option.
The Saints’ offensive situation could be in complete shambles—even
more than it normally is—if Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave
are unable to go. In that scenario, there’s a real chance
that Taysom Hill manages to find his way into quite a few fantasy
lineups as a speculative “what-if” type option. With
Kamara getting injured early on in Week 12, Hill saw a season-high
10 carries against the Falcons, but only managed a measly 17 yards
on those opportunities.
Hill is typically a fairly efficient runner when he gets the
ball, but those touches are often coming in unique packages that
the defense isn’t particularly prepared for. His efficiency
seems to lag when he’s getting more traditional touches.
The case for putting Hill in lineups would be that he may end
up being the de facto “RB1” if Kamara is out, but
despite his higher-than-usual touch count, he still managed to
play just 32 percent of the snaps for the Saints in Week 12. It’s
tough to imagine a scenario where he’s on the field for
significantly more plays than that here in Week 13, so fantasy
managers who are rolling the dice will likely be banking on a
touchdown or bust.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
The Dolphins get a winnable home game coming out of their bye
week here in Week 13, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle looks to
be healthy and ready to get back to feasting. Waddle has quietly
been producing as a borderline WR1 this season, mixing consistency
with a couple of nice spike weeks to keep his managers happy.
He now faces a New Orleans defense that has been good against
opposing wide receivers so far this season, but Waddle is the
focal point of this Miami passing game and should remain in fantasy
lineups until we see him go on a cold streak.
The Dolphins are the betting favorites in this one which might
tempt some fantasy managers to take their chance with Tua Tagovailoa
as a streaming option. Unfortunately, there aren’t many
reasons to believe that he’s suddenly going to suddenly
start playing significantly better than he had in the weeks prior
to the Dolphins’ bye.
Tagovailoa has been a disaster for his fantasy managers in five
of his past six games, the past two of which have actually been
Dolphins’ wins. Tua personifies the “game manager”
stereotype at this point and he’s doing so on a team that
isn’t particularly good anyway, so this is a player to continue
to avoid for fantasy.
Without Marvin Harrison Jr. in the lineup the last two weeks,
and injuries tripping up the RBs, it’s been the Brissett/McBride/Wilson
show for the Cardinals. The chart below shows the “slight” bump
in Wilson’s numbers following MHJ’s appendectomy. Arizona appears
on track to put 22-24 points on the scoreboard, and the numbers
tell me at least 6 of those will belong to Wilson.
Benson was on the practice field in a limited capacity on Wednesday.
But at 3-8 in the NFL’s toughest division, it’s unlikely
the Cardinals further jeopardize their RB1 of the future, for
a few meaningless touches in Tampa Bay. He missed practice on
Thursday.
RB Emari Demercado suffered a high ankle sprain against the 49ers
in Week 10, and DNP on Wednesday so Bam Knight (limited on Wednesday)
and Michael Carter will split backfield duties. Knight has scored
double-digit fantasy points in two straight, and would project
with a higher chance of a TD.
Carter has been called up from the practice squad (the maximum)
3 times in 2025, and remains on the active roster. Over the last
two weeks, he’s been limited to 7 and 8 touches, with 7.8 and
8.8 FPts respectively. Brissett is averaging nearly 44 passing
attempts/game, since Kyler Murray (32 attempts/game) was sidelined.
Your fantasy focus needs to be on the Cardinals passing game,
even if he is the last RB standing for Week 13.
Like a ninja, Tiny Tez has vaulted into the top-50 wide receivers
in fantasy. At just 5’10” and weighing 154 (in full pads), the
7th-round rookie has made the most of his opportunities with Chris
Godwin and Mike Evans unavailable. He’s scored 5 TDs in his last
six games, and double-digit fantasy points in five of his last
seven. The Cardinals defense leans on cover-4 and cover-3, but
those DBs will cheat toward Egbuka, thereby ensuring the ninja
is flex worthy.
Mayfield is an iron man, starting 103 of his 106 career games,
and all 45 since joining the Buccaneers. A left shoulder sprain
was confirmed on Monday, and following a DNP on Wednesday and
limited Thursday, his status for Week 13 is unknown. He suffered
a torn labrum (with structural damage) in the same shoulder 4
years ago, but finished the season before having a surgical repair.
A soft NFC South schedule down the stretch still favors the Bucs.
If he does play, can you afford to risk him in your lineup at
this point in the season?
Bucky’s back. Irving is on schedule to return, after missing
the last eight weeks. In his absence, RBs White and Tucker have
shared the load and fantasy points. As Irving eases back into
action, Week 13 sets up as a possible 40%-30%-30% (fantasy-ugly)
chopped pot.
Godwin returned to the field last week, for the first time since
identical 3/26/0 outings in Weeks 4 and 5. He managed 2 receptions
(9 yds), on about 40% of offensive snaps. He’ll likely play
60+% of the snaps in Week 13. Godwin’s task of returning
to fantasy relevance gets tougher if Mayfield gives way to Teddy
Bridgewater for an extended period.
Otton’s opportunities are reduced as depth returns at WR
for the Bucs. Currently TE22 (7.4FPts/G) with 402 receiving yards
in his 10 games. Otton is the only TE in the top-26 without a
touchdown. There are 31 other TEs from which to choose in Week
13.
Jennings avoided punishment for his post-game confrontation on
Monday night, so he’ll be available for this week’s matchup with
the Browns. With Brandon Aiyuk (knee) still not practicing with
the team, and perhaps unlikely to suit up for the 49ers ever again,
and Ricky Pearsall having missed much of the season, Jennings
has been the team’s most reliable wideout -- he actually ranks
below Kendrick Bourne in receiving yards for the year, but most
of Bourne’s came in Weeks 4 and 5, and he has just one catch in
the last three games combined. More than probably any other team
in the league, though, San Francisco works through the RB/TE tandem
of McCaffrey and Kittle with Jennings serving as a tertiary option.
As such, he’s hit or miss each week. What has improved over the
last month in his work in the red zone with touchdowns in three
of the last four games. He needs the scores to offset limited
yards (he’s averaging 52 yards per game during that same stretch),
but his recent consistency in that area makes him a decent choice
as a low-end WR3 or flex.
Monday night was a rough one for Purdy, who threw three first-half
interceptions versus the Panthers and easily could’ve thrown
one or two more. It was bad enough that San Francisco essentially
gave up throwing downfield with Kittle and McCaffrey combining
for 13 of Purdy’s 23 completions -- only Kittle averaged
more than 9.0 yards per catch. It’s an ongoing issue for
Purdy, who has thrown seven INTs in just four starts. Cleveland,
meanwhile, has been locked in the last two weeks, combining for
15 sacks while forcing four turnovers. Stay clear of Purdy this
Sunday.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
In Cleveland’s three November games, Fannin was targeted 18 times,
catching 10 passes for 110 yards. During that same span, David
Njoku had three receptions for 28 yards while being targeted four
times. That includes none in Week 12. By every metric, the rookie
has surpassed Njoku, becoming the most reliable of Cleveland’s
pass catchers. Obviously, a 10-110-0 line over three games doesn’t
move the needle much, but between his consistent involvement and
San Francisco’s leaky pass defense (241.8 yards allowed per game;
26th in the NFL), Fannin offers fringe TE1 value.
Sampson will go down in history as the first player to catch a
touchdown from Shedeur Sanders in the NFL, taking a short swing
pass and turning it into a 66-yard score. The fourth-round pick
showed some juice after replacing a banged-up Quinshon Judkins
in Las Vegas, turning nine touches into 82 yards. Granted, there
was little consistency -- two of his touches gained 92 yards,
meaning he lost a combined 10 yards on his other seven -- but
on a team that has struggled offensively throughout 2025 the big-play
ability stood out. It’s unclear if Sampson’s efforts versus the
Raiders will lead to an expanded role, however, leaving him as
a very risky flex in Week 13.
Making his first NFL start, Sanders was... decent. He connected
on just 11 passes, but they included gains of 66, 52, and 39 yards,
allowing him to average a whopping 19.0 yards per completion.
Cleveland’s defensive dominance also allowed the Browns to dictate
what they wanted to do on offense and keep Sanders out of tough
spots. We’ll see if they can do the same versus the 49ers. San
Francisco doesn’t have much of a pass rush, which should benefit
Sanders, but with a full game film to break down, the 49ers will
have a better idea of what to expect from the rookie. He’s not
worth starting.
Stroud returns to the lineup following three missed games, after
suffering a Week 9 concussion against the Broncos. Backup QB Davis
Mills pitched three straight wins (Jaguars, Titans and Bills)
in relief. Stroud was averaging 18.5 FPts/G before the injury,
and the Colts are allowing an average of 20.3 FPts/G to QBs. Deducting
for a little rust, let’s say 16-19 fantasy points, for a
mid-range QB2 finish for the week.
Rookie Jayden Higgins now has 7+ targets in three straight, and
3 TDs in his last five games. Improving numbers and a juicy Week
16 home game against the Raiders, make Higgins an intriguing waiver
add before the fantasy playoffs. Houston’s defense frequently
provides great field position, and Higgins has played at least
57% of offensive snaps in each of the Texans last three games
per PFF.
The Colts have allowed 81.5 rushing yards, and 21.4 FPts/G overall
to the RB position. Indianapolis (6-0 at home, 8-3 overall) has
scored a league-leading 341 points, so teams have been forced
to pass against them. Woody (9.38 FPts/G) has double-digit rushing
attempts over his last six games, but this isn’t an ideal
matchup if the home team jumps out to an early lead.
Schultz has as many receptions in 2025 as Nico Collins. In fact,
those 52 catches place him behind only McBride (80), Ferguson
(65), Warren (55) and Kelce (54) heading into Week 13. For fantasy
owners, the downside has been his lone TD, which explains his
current TE16 ranking (9.8 FPts/G). Note: Over the last four games,
with Davis Mills at QB, Schultz averaged 8 targets/G. In C.J.
Stroud’s 7 complete games, Schultz averaged only 5.7 targets/game.
Kirk reappeared in Week 12 with 16.4 fantasy points on 6/5/54/1
receiving. Somehow, the nearest Buffalo defender was 3 yards away,
on a 2-yd TD score. His injury-plagued season continues, with
21 total catches and his first (blown-coverage) touchdown as a
Texan.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
You aren’t benching the overall RB2, but there are reasons
to temper expectations as we head into Week 13. The Texans racked
up 8 sacks and 3 turnovers last Thursday against Buffalo. Taylor’s
surprising fantasy season (25.5 FPts/G) shows two relative duds
in his last three games. An astonishing 49.6-point effort against
Atlanta, is sandwiched between a 7.7-point effort at Pittsburgh
and an 8.6-point total at Kansas City. In two games against the
Texans in 2024, Taylor posted 16/48/1 rushing with zero receptions,
and 20/105/1 rushing with 1/1/12/0 receiving. Let the slugfest
begin!
Pittman (14.7 FPts/G) is churning out the points at a WR1 clip,
and already has a career-best 7 TDs. We’re reminded of what
Pittman can do, with a capable QB on the field. This season, he’s
catching 75.6% of his targets, compared to 62.2% last year. The
bad news this week, is the Texans defense coming to Lucas Oil
Stadium. Houston has allowed only 109 receptions and 6 touchdowns
to WRs through 11 games.
Tyler Warren is everything the Colts hoped for when they drafted
him 14th overall. Already TE3 in total fantasy points (145.8),
the big-bodied rookie is paying off for fantasy owners, with 74/55/662/3.
His 13.3 FPts/G contrast with a Texans defense that has given
up only 3 TDs in 2025, and allows exactly 10 FPts/G (25.3% fewer
than the league average). George Kittle, by far the best TE Houston
has faced all season, posted 5/4/43/1, for 14.3 fantasy points.
If Taylor and/or Pittman struggle, Warren could see a few extra
“jump ball” targets.
The only QB names ahead of him in total fantasy points are Allen,
Maye, Mahomes, Prescott, Stafford and Hurts. Averaging 23.3 FPts/G,
the over-achieving Mr. Jones has a big problem this Sunday afternoon.
The Texans defense has more INTs (11) than receiving TDs allowed
to wideouts (10). Houston is the toughest defense QBs have faced
in 2025, allowing only 15.3 FPts/game. How did Josh Allen do,
passing against them in Week 12? Zero TDs, 253 yards and 2 INTs
for 14.7 fantasy points. Jones had a full practice on Thursday
and should play.
Pierce is averaging 21.1 YPC, but has only 1 TD on 29 receptions
(3.4%). In 2024 Pierce had 37 receptions but 7 TDs (18.9%). Don’t
use wishful thinking or Alec Pierce in this one.
Every season delivers at least one unthinkable fantasy downturn,
and in 2025 Justin Jefferson has unfortunately become the headline
example. Entering Week 13, Jefferson sits just inside the top-25
wide receivers, averaging only 11.1 FPts/G. Even more concerning:
had J.J. McCarthy not missed time, Jefferson would likely sit
outside the top 30.
Jefferson was at least serviceable with Carson Wentz earlier
in the year—hitting back-to-back 120-yard games in Weeks 4 and
5—but the return to McCarthy has brought an undeniable slide.
All four of Jefferson’s single-digit fantasy outings this season
have come with McCarthy at QB, including three straight weeks
entering this matchup.
With McCarthy now in the concussion protocol, Minnesota may turn
to undrafted rookie Max Brosmer. Strangely, that might help Jefferson.
Brosmer’s inexperience could naturally lead him to lock onto the
team’s best player; that alone offers more upside than what Jefferson
has delivered with McCarthy. Jefferson still carries his recent
floor concerns, but Brosmer arguably gives him a better chance
at rebound production.
Aaron Jones has handled a steady role since returning from IR
five weeks ago, logging multiple catches in every game and surpassing
66% of snaps in three straight. The issue is simply the offense:
Minnesota isn’t sustaining drives, which has left Jones
with double-digit carries just once and only one touchdown during
that stretch. He remains a low-end flex until the offense stabilizes.
It’s hard to justify starting a quarterback with a TD-to-INT
ratio sitting four below even, especially when that QB has attempted
fewer than 25 passes in four of six starts. McCarthy hasn’t
delivered even average statistical play in any phase, making him
unusable even if cleared.
Brosmer might boost Jefferson slightly, but he’s still
a long shot for fantasy relevance outside of deep superflex formats.
Jordan Addison has produced a WR6-level stretch over the past
five weeks, bottoming out with a 1-target, 0-catch performance
last week. Even if Brosmer provides a spark, Addison hasn’t
shown enough stability to trust in lineups.
T.J. Hockenson hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 16 of
last season, and he’s scored just twice across 2024–2025.
He’s averaging 27.2 yards per game and 7.9 yards per reception—well
below TE1 thresholds. With either McCarthy or an undrafted rookie
under center, he’s a low-end TE2.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Seattle’s Week 12 win over Tennessee was strangely paced—they
built a 30–10 lead, yet were out-possessed by 15 minutes. That
limited the expected late-game rushing volume. Even so, Kenneth
Walker (11–71–0) and Zach Charbonnet (6–35–1) both ran efficiently.
Walker has found his form over the last three weeks, posting at
least 67 rushing yards and 4.2 YPC in all three while adding 7
catches for 77 yards and a score in that span.
Minnesota isn’t an easy matchup for running backs, but
they did allow 25.5 FPts to Packers fill-in Emmanuel Wilson last
week, mostly on volume. Walker could push past 18–20 carries
here with Seattle likely controlling the game. He profiles as
an RB2.
Sam Darnold rebounded nicely in Week 12 with 244 yards and 2
TDs on just 26 passes. He continues to lead the league in YPA
(9.3) and ANY/A (8.6), but Seattle often caps his fantasy output
with low passing volume—fewer than 25 attempts in four games,
and 27 or fewer in six of eleven. Against a Vikings defense allowing
the 7th-fewest points to QBs and in a game script likely to tilt
run-heavy, Darnold is best viewed as a QB2.
Charbonnet remains a strong complementary piece, though his fantasy
relevance relies heavily on touchdowns. His snap share has been
stable, and positive game flow should help his opportunities rebound
from last week’s low usage. He’s a flex option.
Shaheed posted zero catches and just 0.5 fantasy points in Week
12 and has only 35 total yards with Seattle across three games.
Despite a slight uptick in usage the week prior, his snap rate
stayed nearly flat (54% ? 56%). His primary contributions are
on returns, and Seattle appears content to keep him in that role.
Until his offensive role expands, he’s not startable.
Although he’s had a handful of duds this season -- most
recently in Week 11 when he lost three yards on his lone reception
-- Shakir has clearly worked as Allen’s top target on the
outside. He leads the team in receptions and receiving yards,
though his yards per game actually trails Kincaid, and he’s
tied for second in touchdowns. Pittsburgh has had difficulties
slowing down opposing passing attacks for much of the season,
giving up 258.7 yards per game, which is the second-most in the
NFL behind Cincinnati. They’re not quite as generous in
allowing touchdowns, and they do have enough pass rush to affect
Allen, but Shakir’s strength is working short and intermediate
routes, and then picking up yards after the catch. That makes
him a good fit to deliver on Sunday. Coming off a season-high
110 yards last Thursday, Shakir offers WR3 value with some upside
in Week 13.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: Every Bills WR Not Named Shakir
After Shakir, inconsistency has been the name of the game. Last
year’s second-round pick, Keon
Coleman, began the year with an 8-112-1 line. He’s been a
healthy inactive the past two weeks. Josh
Palmer signed a three-year, $36 million deal in March. He’s
caught more than two passes in a game once this season. Curtis
Samuel got $24 million over three years in 2024; he has six
receptions in 2025. Elijah
Moore (cut), a former second-round pick of the Jets, has nine
catches. The Bills recently reunited with Gabe
Davis and signed Brandin
Cooks this week. It is truly a mess. With zero clarity you
cannot rely on any of these options, even against the NFL’s 31st-ranked
pass defense.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
We’d seen Gainwell shine when Warren was injured. For the
first time this season, however, we saw that duo both produce
in the same game. While Warren led the way with 18 carries, it
was Gainwell that was the more dynamic, pacing the club in both
rushing yards (92) and receptions (6) to finish with 122 combined
yards. On an offense that lacks playmakers outside of Metcalf
and Warren, perhaps the Steelers are finally warming to the idea
of making Gainwell a more regular part of the gameplan -- ironically,
it was something they’d done for years with Najee Harris
and Warren, so it’s unclear why it took so long to embrace.
Even having said that, it’s still possible that what we
saw in Week 12 was a one-time thing, born of having Mason Rudolph
under center, and that this Sunday it’ll be back to lots
of Warren with Gainwell sprinkled in. Still, it’s worth
risking Gainwell as your flex given the potential for more.
Rodgers missed Week 12 due to a wrist injury, depriving the football
world of one final trip to Soldier Field. All signs point to the
veteran returning this Sunday. After watching how the Texans toppled
the Bills, though, with clean football from Davis Mills and a
healthy dose of the running game, it’s hard to imagine they’ll
ask Rodgers to air it out in Week 13. Keeping the ball away from
Allen is a smart approach, and it’s one that figures to
result in limited numbers from Rodgers. Avoid him in this one.
With offensive coordinator Chip Kelly dismissed, the Raiders
begin transitioning to a new scheme. It’s unclear how quickly
any improvements will appear, but it’s hard to imagine the
offense taking a step backward. If nothing else, the initial uncertainty
should temporarily benefit players like Ashton Jeanty, who has
been met in the backfield far too often—an alarming 30%
of his carries have gone for zero or negative yards this year.
The Chargers have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to running
backs, but they’ve been volatile. They’ve given up 27+ points
to three different RBs and recently allowed 19.3 and 13.4 FPts
to Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten in a blowout loss before
their bye.
Despite a frustrating year, Jeanty’s usage has diversified—22
receptions over his last four games, compared to 15 in his first
seven. Even with the playbook being rewritten, Jeanty and Brock
Bowers should remain the focal points of the offense. Jeanty carries
legitimate upside in a matchup where the Chargers just spent a
week preparing for an offensive plan that no longer exists.
Even under a new coordinator, Geno Smith remains a risky fantasy
play. Last week’s disaster—10 sacks against the Browns—highlighted
issues that go far beyond scheme. Las Vegas lacks both high-end
receivers and consistent offensive line play, and Geno showed
some troubling regression, including a sideline outburst toward
fans. With the risk of an in-game benching and ongoing protection
issues, he’s outside even the QB2 range this week.
Tre Tucker has earned “WR1” volume on this roster
with 18 targets over the last two games, but the production hasn’t
followed: just 7 catches for 75 yards. A Week 11 touchdown saved
him against Dallas, but performances like 3-28-0 (CLE) and 2-28-0
(DEN) show the floor is low.
The Chargers haven’t allowed a WR to reach double-digit
fantasy points since Week 7 (and only once since Week 5). Combined
with Geno’s 19% sack rate last week, the odds are stacked
against Tucker producing.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Ladd McConkey went quiet against Jacksonville in Week 11, posting
3-13-0 on 4 targets. That ended a five-game streak of at least
4 catches, 56 yards, and 6 targets per game. Even so, he has two
100-yard performances in his last six outings and has averaged
8.5 targets per game in that span.
The Raiders are collapsing defensively and have given up the
6th-most points to opposing WRs. With the Chargers offense looking
for a reset coming out of the bye, this is the matchup to bounce
back. McConkey is firmly a WR2.
Justin Herbert looked like a revived fantasy asset early in the
season (22.7 FPts/G through nine weeks), but the injuries along
the Chargers offensive line—especially losing Joe Alt—have
derailed everything. Since Week 10, Herbert has fallen to 10.0
FPts/G, the QB34 in that span.
He still has an excellent receiving group, but repeated hits,
a collapsing pocket, and 13 sacks taken in his last three games
have destroyed drive sustainability. There’s clear QB1 upside
in a matchup with the struggling Raiders, but given the trench
issues and Herbert's slower processing under pressure, he's best
viewed as a fringe QB1.
Quentin Johnston posted his second target-less “zero”
in four weeks two games ago; this time he had 3 targets but no
catches. With pass protection crumbling, Johnston reverts to a
pure boom/bust profile. Fortunately for him, this is the type
of matchup where he has historically cashed in—Las Vegas
has already allowed 13 WR touchdowns this season. He’s a
volatile flex.
The Chargers opened Omarion Hampton’s 21-day practice window
after a two-month absence. Before the injury, he was handling
full lead-back duties, averaging 20 touches and 18.7 FPts/G across
his final three games, including a strong 5.7 receptions per contest.
His passing-game value could be especially important now as the
offense looks to compensate for protection issues.
His possible return clouds things for Kimani Vidal, who has been
excellent in relief (11.4 FPts/G in six starts). If Hampton sits,
Vidal is a clean mid-range RB2. If Hampton plays, both become
risky:
Hampton: likely eased in; flex-level snap share
Vidal: reduced to change-of-pace usage; deep-league boom/bust
only
Fantasy managers need to monitor Hampton’s status closely—he’s
the hinge point of the entire Chargers backfield.
Gadsden has cooled off with just 5 receptions for 54 yards on
11 targets across his last two games. The Chargers offense fell
apart with the loss of Joe Alt, and Herbert’s discomfort
has disrupted timing. The Raiders are also a tough matchup for
TEs, allowing the 4th-fewest points to the position and only three
touchdowns all season. Gadsden is a TE2 this week.
He’s coming off of back-to-back poor fantasy performances
for the first time this season, but fantasy managers should have
hope that Bo Nix can bounce back coming out of Denver’s
bye week. He’ll face a Commanders defense that has been
a top-10 defense for opposing quarterbacks to play against this
season, having given up three or more passing touchdowns in four
of their past five games. Nix might not be a superstar fantasy
QB yet, but he’s one you can trust in a matchup like this.
It’s not that we don’t want to be more optimistic about RJ Harvey—we
do—but the Broncos really cut the legs out from our fun with what
they did this past week regarding their backfield split. In their
first game without JK Dobbins, the Broncos gave 14 touches to
the rookie, while Jaleel McLaughlin touched the ball seven times.
The game between the Broncos and Chiefs was close, too, so this
wasn’t a matter of “preserving the starters”—it was just a touch
split.
On the positive side—and managers should take this as a
serious sign for optimism—Harvey played on over 60 percent
of the team’s offensive snaps, while Jaleel McLaughlin and
Tyler Badie each checked in for fewer than 15 percent. That signals
that the team values Harvey much more heavily than they do any
of their other backs—we just need to see that manifest itself
in touch volume.
With the Broncos operating as road betting favorites, this is
the opportunity for Harvey to carve out his role as the team’s
top back, which would do wonders for our confidence in him going
forward.
Courtland Sutton is still the WR1 in Denver, but that really
hasn’t led to much lately, at least from a fantasy standpoint.
Sutton has been held to fewer than 11 fantasy points in five of
his past six games. After a very strong start to the season, Sutton
has now fallen outside of WR1 range and he’s—at best—a
low-end WR2 at the moment.
The matchup against the Commanders could be what he needs to
get back on track, but it’s tough to blame fantasy managers
who will be looking elsewhere for players who have shown a higher
ceiling over the past two months.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was the early-season darling of fantasy
football, but things have gone from bad to worse for the rookie
in recent weeks. Not only has Croskey-Merritt failed to reach
even 4.0 yards per carry or catch more than a single pass in a
game since all the way back in Week 5, he’s now conceding not
only goal line carries but the bulk of carries to veteran Chris
Rodriguez. Rodriguez out-snapped Croskey-Merritt for the first
time all season in their last game and he also carried the ball
15 times to JCM’s nine.
Rodriguez has been dealing with an illness that kept him out
of practice early in the week, but he practiced in full on Thursday
and should be in line to be the team’s most productive fantasy
back again here in Week 13. He has a tough matchup against a good
Denver defense that ranks fifth-best in preventing fantasy points
per game to opposing running backs, but we’re not expecting
a superstar performance here from Rodriguez. If he gets 12 or
more touches and sneaks into the end zone, he’ll be useful
enough for fantasy managers to feel good about in their Flex.
Terry McLaurin has been one of the most injury-bitten players
in fantasy football this season as he missed four games early
on in the year before coming back for just one game, scoring a
touchdown, and suffering another injury. McLaurin’s quadriceps
finally appears to be healthy enough to get back on the field
here in Week 13 as the wide receiver practiced in full and was
not listed on the team’s injury report on Thursday, but it will
be difficult to trust him fully in this one. Not only is McLaurin
going to have to ramp back up into a full workload, but he’ll
be dealing with Marcus Mariota rather than Jayden Daniels at quarterback.
Mariota has been a fine replacement all things considered, but
the offense’s ceiling is just not nearly as high without the 2024
AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. To make matters worse, he’ll
be facing a Denver defense that has conceded the third-fewest
fantasy points per game so far this season. McLaurin should be
looked at as a WR3/Flex in this one.
Deebo Samuel is coming off of his fourth 20-point game of the
season and his first since Week 5, so fantasy managers will be
itching to get him back in their lineups after the big game. Unfortunately,
the situation he’s stepping into looks bleak as he’s
up against an excellent Broncos defense that has locked down opposing
wide receivers here in 2025. Not only that, but the expected return
of Terry McLaurin would relegate Samuel to being the second option
in an already low-volume Washington passing attack.
We’ll see if Samuel can keep up his momentum now that McLaurin
is back and perhaps we’ll be kicking ourselves for benching
him, but this looks like a good time to play “wait-and-see”
with Samuel, rather than risking a dud in your starting lineup.
The Giants’ offense has been completely snakebitten by
injuries this season, but somehow two players have managed to
emerge as somewhat reliable fantasy options—those being
wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson.
Robinson has quietly managed to play himself into mid-range WR2
range following his explosive performance against the Lions this
past week where he caught nine passes for 156 yards and a touchdown.
Robinson has now been targeted at least 11 times in four of his
past six games and that type of volume makes him a must-start
for most fantasy lineups, even in a matchup against a Patriots
defense that has done a great job of containing opposing slot
receivers this season.
Johnson’s numbers haven’t been nearly as gaudy and
he hasn’t reached “must-start” status, but the
second-year tight end has clawed his way into mid-range TE1 range
for the season. Not only have his totals been impressive, but
Johnson has done it while displaying a shocking amount of consistency.
He has now scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in six of his
past nine games. He’s a trustworthy mid-to-low-end TE1 who
has the physical ability to produce big games if given more opportunities.
Rookie quarterback Jaxon Dart is expected back on the field after
missing the past two games for the Giants, and his return to the
lineup should have fantasy managers itching to get him back in
their lineups. Dart had emerged as a reliable mid-range QB1 for
fantasy prior to suffering a concussion and he should be back
in that conversation immediately. The only real concern here is
that he may end up running the ball less often now that he suffered
the head injury, as the coaching staff will likely explain that
him being on the field is much more important than gaining an
extra few yards on the ground. The risk is worth the potential
reward, though, as Dart’s legs make him a potential difference-maker
at QB.
Tracy has really stepped up in Dart’s absence over the past two
weeks. The second-year running back touched the ball 23 times
in each of those two contests, converting for 139 and 130 yards
respectively, and he’s now seemingly re-taken his role as the
bell cow back in the Giants’ offense. It’d be tough to expect
that this kind of volume continues, especially now that Dart is
back and the team will likely feel a bit more comfortable with
their offense than they did with Jameis Winston, but Tracy has
probably earned himself at least double-digit touches here in
Week 13. Unfortunately, those touches will come against a Patriots
defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points in the league
to opposing running backs so far this season. Still, he’s probably
a player who needs to be in most lineups as at least a Flex, if
not a low-end RB2.
Fade: N/A
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
The TreVeyon Henderson coming out party has been fun to watch
over the past month. The rookie has completely dominated snaps,
touches, and production in the Patriots’ backfield and he’s now
worked himself into RB1 range here in Week 13. Henderson hasn’t
touched the ball fewer than 15 times in a game since Week 8 and
he’s now set to face a Giants defense that has given up the second-most
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this
season, including this past week when they gave up the fantasy
game of the year to Jahmyr Gibbs.
Rhamondre Stevenson came back in Week 12, but was a nonfactor—fire
up Henderson in your RB1 slot and watch the fireworks display.
Stefon Diggs has been the Patriots’ most productive and
most consistent pass-catcher this season, so it’s probably
best for us to forgive his shockingly light performance in Week
12. The tough part is, it came against an abysmal Cincinnati defense
in a game where his quarterback threw the ball 35 times. Diggs
seeing just three total targets in that situation is just brutal
for the psyche of a fantasy manager.
Still, Week 13 presents an opportunity for Diggs to get back
into the good graces of fantasy managers. He’ll face a Giants
secondary that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per
game to opposing wide receivers so far this season. Don’t
miss out on a potentially big game from Diggs.
The Patriots’ passing game has been good enough this season
that any contributor could really go off and have a productive
fantasy day, so it’s tough to really say that fantasy managers
should “fade” any of them, but if there’s one
player who seems like a player to leave on your bench it’s
tight end Hunter Henry.
Yes, that’s probably shocking as he’s coming off
of his biggest game of the season. Henry went for seven receptions,
115 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets against the Bengals in
Week 12. However, he left that game with a toe injury and has
been limited in practice throughout the week.
The Patriots play on Monday night and that adds a unique risk
factor to keeping Henry in your lineup without a backup plan.
If he is unable to play—or is on a limited snap count—you’re
probably left with a zero in your lineup, as it’s going
to be too late to start anyone else in his place. So managers
who are looking to go with Henry need to pay close attention to
reports out of Giants’ practice this weekend and if he’s
not trending toward being a very likely starter, then it’s
probably best to pivot elsewhere for this week.
