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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


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All Out Blitz: Volume 101
11/26/15

When I started doing research for “Know Thy Opponent” last week, I did so with the intention of arriving the piece I will be writing this week. It only makes sense that if we are going to spend some time analyzing what defenses give up to each position, we also spend a bit of time looking at the individual players. As such, think of this week’s submission as a bit of a companion piece to last week’s article. Or consider this a midseason version of the “Consistency Rankings Analysis” I have done over the last two summers during my PMA series.

Since the purpose of this article is to provide some insight as to what fantasy players have done to this point, I will not be tracking categories such as “Top 1”, “Elite”, “clear starter” or calculating a score like I did in the offseason story – since we are not projecting season-long player performance at this point. Much like last week’s article, I want owners to be able to use this article as a reference point when putting together their DFS or redraft lineups over the next few weeks.

Because many of you will be spending hours upon hours with family and/or football on Thanksgiving, my hope for this week is to get in and get out before you find yourself in a turkey-induced coma. And since I will be releasing my fourth and final set of quarterly projections next week, so I’ll put together a more comprehensive player and team breakdown at that time.

Below is a list of players - broken down by position and in alphabetical order (first name) – that have been worthy of starting consideration in fantasy or that I believe have a chance of contributing in the coming weeks, at least given what we know at the moment. I placed dashes in any box in which the player had a bye week or was injured. I chose to leave in some of the more notable players that are out for the season at certain positions in order to give readers a better idea of what to potentially expect out of replacements such as Charcandrick West, Thomas Rawls and James White.

 QB Ranks by Week
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Aaron Rodgers GB 5 15 1 15 15 11 - 27 3 7 9
Alex Smith KC 4 33 16 17 17 21 15 6 - 17 22
Andrew Luck IND 11 27 14 - - 2 4 16 - - -
Andy Dalton CIN 9 9 2 13 4 8 - 20 7 24 5
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 14 2 30 - - - - 23 11 2 13
Blake Bortles JAC 26 13 15 12 2 6 14 8 13 20
Brian Hoyer HOU 25 - - 10 11 4 7 15 - 30 -
Brock Osweiler DEN - - - - - - - - - 23 7
Cam Newton CAR 24 5 3 8 - 13 16 11 1 9 1
Carson Palmer ARI 3 7 13 16 9 18 12 4 - 4 3
Derek Carr OAK 34 3 8 18 21 - 5 5 5 10 27
Drew Brees NO 12 26 - 3 13 19 18 1 4 18 -
Eli Manning NYG 31 12 10 6 3 26 26 2 21 6 -
Jameis Winston TB 13 18 21 20 18 - 10 14 16 22 2
Jay Cutler CHI 19 30 - 11 12 17 - 13 10 3 24
Josh McCown CLE 33 - 9 4 1 22 20 8 - - -
Kirk Cousins WAS 29 25 20 7 23 28 1 - 23 1 23
Marcus Mariota TEN 2 16 12 19 24 27 - - 2 26 14
Matt Ryan ATL 10 19 6 24 25 10 21 9 17 - 6
Matthew Stafford DET 16 17 23 30 26 1 13 22 - 14 11
Peyton Manning DEN 32 10 11 28 28 23 - 21 14 - -
Philip Rivers SD 8 23 22 1 8 3 6 7 20 - 28
Russell Wilson SEA 17 11 18 9 19 15 19 17 - 15 4
Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 18 20 17 25 31 5 8 29 12 16 15
Ryan Tannehill MIA 20 8 19 23 - 16 2 26 24 12 12
Sam Bradford PHI 22 29 25 2 14 25 25 - 18 19 -
Tom Brady NE 1 1 5 - 5 7 3 3 13 8 19
Tony Romo DAL 6 32 - - - - - - - - 18
Tyrod Taylor BUF 15 4 4 21 10 - - - 19 21 26

Quick Observations:

- It seems very hard to believe in a down year for Rodgers that he’s basically on the same track he was last year (with only a slight dip in passing yards). Last season, his line was 4,381-38-5 with 269 yards rushing and two scores. This season, he’s on pace for 3,971-37-5 with 352 yards rushing.

- Brady (6.5), Palmer (8.9) and Newton (9.1) are the only three quarterbacks with a single-digit average fantasy rank. It is interesting to note that Brady’s worst three ranks of the season have come in the last three games. (Is it a coincidence they are the same three in which Dion Lewis hurt his knee or was ruled out for the year?)

- With all the comings and goings in Chicago, perhaps it is about time we give Cutler some credit. He’s only been stellar in one week, but more than serviceable over the last two months.

- Cousins has been the definition of a matchup-based starter. In his three best weeks, he’s had his way with the Eagles, Bucs and Saints and exceeded expectations. In every other contest, he has scored fewer than 15 fantasy points (even in leagues that award six points for all touchdowns).

- This could be the last week in which owners can get fair market value in return for Rivers, at least from those owners that generally only look at fantasy-point totals and don’t put a lot of thought into the factors that lead to them. After posting one sub 20-point fantasy effort through eight weeks, he’s done it in back-to-back games. Rivers has virtually no offensive line or running game to speak of for the second straight year, Antonio Gates may not be himself the rest of the year and there is no way Steve Johnson and Dontrelle Inman are replacing Keenan Allen.

 RB Ranks by Week (PPR)
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Adrian Peterson MIN 39 5 7 10 - 36 19 15 8 3 17
Alfred Blue HOU 47 71 14 64 52 - 73 16 - 49 9
Ahmad Bradshaw IND - - - - - 62 64 58 30 - 6
Alfred Morris WAS 24 34 78 35 67 48 67 - 59 15 75
Ameer Abdullah DET 9 67 22 42 55 25 55 70 - 51 38
Andre Ellington ARI 20 - - - 27 33 34 76 - 9 63
Antonio Andrews TEN - - 21 - 23 54 45 21 22 68 25
Bilal Powell NYJ 33 30 18 59 - 71 - - - - 18
Bishop Sankey TEN 4 - 47 - 40 57 84 - - 71 -
C.J. Anderson DEN 37 60 59 36 43 23 - 7 38 66 30
C.J. Spiller NO - 63 55 7 58 38 29 20 50 42 -
Carlos Hyde SF 1 27 40 53 18 31 56 - - - -
Charcandrick West KC - - - 55 50 43 8 3 - 2 33
Charles Sims TB 50 37 20 21 14 32 36 28 43 14
Chris Ivory NYJ 3 39 - 5 - 2 22 38 12 12 40
Chris Johnson ARI 63 41 5 25 34 41 11 24 - 36 34
Danny Woodhead SD 5 10 39 15 26 18 2 40 6 - 59
Darren McFadden DAL 55 42 29 54 16 5 - 8 18 28 10
Darren Sproles PHI 8 51 19 65 48 65 31 - 40 30 16
David Johnson ARI 23 21 41 13 25 60 54 39 - 59 28
DeAngelo Williams PIT 21 1 93 76 64 80 61 11 1 31 -
DeMarco Murray PHI 11 26 - 39 4 7 30 - 3 8 21
Devonta Freeman ATL 41 11 1 1 2 1 17 5 9 - 47
Dexter McCluster TEN 87 9 49 - 60 16 23 35 33 13 50
Dion Lewis NE 15 3 15 - 6 34 - 2 27 - -
Doug Martin TB 44 19 54 4 1 - 9 30 35 16 3
Duke Johnson CLE 75 56 28 3 24 29 15 29 23 34 -
Eddie Lacy GB 12 83 23 29 51 51 - 19 58 - 24
Frank Gore IND 53 43 9 23 21 20 24 17 14 - 22
Giovani Bernard CIN 19 8 24 26 22 14 - 45 25 18 5
Jamaal Charles KC 6 4 2 8 35 - - - - - -
James Starks GB 94 14 48 43 38 3 - 53 4 11 41
James White NE - - 38 - - 79 43 72 - 55 7
Javorius Allen BAL 56 76 84 63 44 56 50 42 - 50 12
Jeremy Hill CIN 10 53 76 6 57 15 - 34 36 44 13
Jay Ajayi MIA - - - - - - - - 41 45 39
Jeremy Langford CHI 95 38 - 77 62 27 - 49 5 1 20
Joique Bell DET 45 61 35 - - - 47 43 - 40 42
Jonathan Stewart CAR 25 45 50 46 - 6 25 10 32 14 8
Justin Forsett BAL 36 18 42 20 3 12 20 32 - 25 58
Karlos Williams BUF 30 20 16 18 - - - - 7 23 67
Lamar Miller MIA 38 33 30 47 37 9 1 12 2 5 35
Latavius Murray OAK 18 6 10 32 - - 16 14 24 20 32
LeGarrette Blount NE - 88 4 - 39 4 87 31 13 10 36
LeSean McCoy BUF 28 13 27 - - 11 26 11 6 2
Le’Veon Bell PIT - - 6 2 8 28 13 33 - - -
Mark Ingram NO 7 12 11 11 36 8 6 9 17 19 -
Marshawn Lynch SEA 16 32 62 - - 17 12 27 - 21 -
Matt Forte CHI 2 15 36 9 9 10 - 23 - - -
Matt Jones WAS 69 2 58 72 33 - 33 - 34 4 55
Melvin Gordon SD 34 24 51 40 19 58 60 22 29 - 37
Rashad Jennings NYG 31 55 32 16 32 21 66 26 37 33 -
Ronnie Hillman DEN 57 64 33 14 56 13 - 6 68 17 26
Ryan Mathews SD 27 97 12 61 12 40 7 - 21 22 -
Shane Vereen NYG 32 7 73 60 5 67 38 4 15 47 -
Shaun Draughn SF 90 - 85 68 - - - - 16 - 15
Spencer Ware KC - - - - - - 75 37 - 72 4
Stevan Ridley NYJ - - - - - - - - - 81 70
T.J. Yeldon JAC 35 22 45 24 15 - 10 - 19 24 27
Tevin Coleman ATL 40 31 - - 75 49 69 59 64 - 43
Theo Riddick DET 29 29 17 34 10 22 35 25 - 39 19
Thomas Rawls SEA 89 - 25 44 7 72 42 67 - 58 1
Tim Hightower NO - - - - - - - - - - 46
Todd Gurley STL - - 69 12 20 - 3 1 10 7 23

Quick Observations:

- It sure seems like a long time ago when Jets HC Todd Bowles compared Abdullah’s quickness to Barry Sanders. If the Lions have designs on competing next year (or at least finding out what they have), they’ll do the right thing and scrap their ridiculous three-man committee. That’s not to say Detroit has the offensive line this season to make the rookie look good consistently, but he’s the one back on the team that can create a big play in the running game.

- How good is the Chiefs’ running game for fantasy running backs? Three different players (Charles, West and Ware) have combined for eight top-10 finishes!

- It’s easy to take a look at Doug Martin’s season totals and see a fantasy RB1. However, when one takes a look at his weekly ranks, he’s been a low-end RB2 just as often as he’s been a RB1.

- Want to meet the new standard of the top-20 fantasy running back? Yeldon has scored two touchdowns in nine games (he missed Week 6) and ranks No. 20 overall in PPR formats. Since Week 3, he has seen at least 16 touches every week. Success typically follows opportunity, especially when talent comes along for the ride. Yeldon has the opportunity and talent, and 16-plus touches per week is going to lead to a lot of double-digit fantasy performances.

- Gurley’s performance to this point speaks for itself. It’ll be interesting to see if he can continue without three-fifths of his offensive line for the foreseeable future (G’s Rodger Saffold and Jamon Brown – both out for the season – as well as RT Rob Havenstein). It is reasonable to believe that games like the last three weeks – less than four yards per carry each time – will become the norm.

 WR Ranks by Week (PPR)
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
A.J. Green CIN 32 39 1 21 25 59 - 3 48 28 31
Allen Hurns JAC 33 47 25 3 6 41 27 - 9 15 62
Allen Robinson JAC 84 4 43 43 2 14 10 - 17 17 12
Alshon Jeffery CHI 28 - - - - 5 - 5 6 53 -
Amari Cooper OAK 41 14 16 22 47 - 5 39 10 26 90
Andre Holmes OAK - 61 64 111 97 - 100 18 91 31 96
Anquan Boldin SF 53 24 82 82 5 30 53 - - - 21
Antonio Brown PIT 4 2 15 58 53 68 12 24 1 1 -
Brandin Cooks NO 46 46 27 68 8 55 25 8 18 4 -
Brandon LaFell NE - - - - - - 66 45 24 40 35
Brandon Marshall NYJ 11 16 10 9 - 9 34 17 26 30 15
Calvin Johnson DET 63 12 22 38 33 6 11 27 - 21 24
Cecil Shorts HOU 42 53 40 8 - 45 - - - 63 41
Cole Beasley DAL 48 98 54 41 49 - 98 99 2 84 83
Danny Amendola NE 75 74 26 - 72 20 9 82 52 13 6
Davante Adams GB 38 79 - - - - - 85 21 12 55
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 3 58 13 5 1 1 32 13 16 1
Demaryius Thomas DEN 27 48 12 14 38 11 - 11 46 22 19
Devin Funchess CAR 100 22 92 110 - 75 83 86 22 49 10
Donte Moncrief IND 13 93 37 32 88 18 26 68 57 - 43
Dez Bryant DAL 39 - - - - - - 72 11 35 20
Dorial Green-Beckham TEN - 10 47 - - 52 99 81 31 102 53
Doug Baldwin SEA 35 17 66 37 41 69 71 51 - 5 30
Dwayne Harris NYG 111 - - 17 27 81 56 20 85 10 -
Eddie Royal CHI 104 44 78 13 47 - 74 - - -
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 23 5 28 51 10 12 - 61 12 106 -
Eric Decker NYJ 31 15 - 26 - 27 19 22 14 8 29
Golden Tate DET 60 36 44 69 19 26 79 34 - 32 18
James Jones GB 6 50 9 24 21 42 - 96 51 103 4
Jamison Crowder WAS 109 100 45 31 17 56 39 - 39 18 89
Jarvis Landry MIA 20 21 30 47 - 28 4 30 15 11 36
Jeremy Maclin KC 37 55 8 4 18 57 - 31 - 60 59
John Brown ARI 21 51 51 18 15 4 17 - - 101 22
Jordan Matthews PHI 8 18 42 61 43 37 68 - 5 57 61
Julian Edelman NE 5 3 21 - 7 22 37 6 19 38 -
Julio Jones ATL 1 8 3 62 34 29 6 2 7 - 2
Kamar Aiken BAL 113 37 - 11 30 40 93 32 - 20 13
Keenan Allen SD 2 86 4 15 32 3 16 26 - - -
Kendall Wright TEN 9 85 14 - 60 61 23 49 - - -
Lance Moore DET 91 77 86 83 14 10 - 33 - 27 76
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 19 1 6 16 16 21 54 12 - 6 9
Leonard Hankerson ATL 87 19 63 6 77 58 - - - - 25
Marquess Wilson CHI 52 99 - 27 9 60 - 80 74 96 23
Marvin Jones CIN 83 40 18 98 36 8 - 71 30 44 38
Michael Crabtree OAK 50 9 60 35 42 - 15 14 4 36 32
Michael Floyd ARI 92 - 96 46 75 25 21 16 - 2 -
Mike Evans TB - - 20 72 54 - 3 47 8 7 11
Nate Washington HOU 14 54 57 - - - 1 23 - 56 73
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 45 6 17 59 4 17 51 1 16 9 52
Pierre Garcon WAS 25 34 41 12 48 35 35 - 40 74 -
Randall Cobb GB 18 20 5 56 62 65 - 41 13 33 37
Rishard Matthews MIA 26 27 7 94 - 34 18 28 47 19 82
Rueben Randle NYG 69 104 11 42 45 49 44 35 25 42 -
Stefon Diggs MIN - - - 25 - 15 7 15 53 43 27
Steve Johnson SD 7 29 61 67 - - 43 57 28 - 28
Steve Smith BAL 90 11 2 70 - 7 29 29 - - -
Tavon Austin STL 43 72 55 2 37 - 36 4 34 67 75
Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 54 35 35 19 - 85 20 46 70 41 14
Terrance Williams DAL 34 23 - 29 63 - 33 65 60 54 8
Travis Benjamin CLE 12 7 32 28 22 13 45 53 61 14 -
T.Y. Hilton IND 16 57 34 30 26 16 2 78 29 - 68
Tyler Lockett SEA 55 84 - 50 64 109 13 50 - 87 5
Vincent Jackson TB 47 32 67 1 76 - 87 - - - 16
Willie Snead NO 56 33 50 23 11 48 61 7 23 108 -

Quick Observations:

- The season totals say A.J. Green is a top-10 receiver. One look at the ranks above tell a different story and suggest he’s been a low-end WR2 or WR3 much more often.

- I’m not sure I know what’s more impressive: Julio Jones’ four top-three finishes or Hopkins’ five top-five weeks (with three different quarterbacks).

- Revisiting my anti-Detroit theme from the section above: if Calvin Johnson is less than 100 percent, why is so difficult to use Golden Tate like a poor man’s Julian Edelman - especially considering how bad the run game is been. Tate’s run-after-catch skills have long been underappreciated, so it seems like a crime that he doesn’t see double-digit targets more often.

- I have yet to use Mike Evans in DFS this year, but I think that will change this week. I’m not crazy about the inefficiency (44 catches on 90 targets) or his ridiculous number of drops, but he’s getting targeted at the rate one would expect from the player that is playing the Julio Jones role in OC Dirk Koetter’s offense.

- Speaking of underappreciated, kudos to Travis Benjamin. Although Week 10 was the first time he rewarded fantasy owners in nearly a month, he has consistently been a WR2 in an offense that didn’t look capable of producing a WR3 entering the season.

- Although he has virtually no chance of reaching his usual touchdown numbers, Demaryius Thomas is somehow still on pace to exceed his career-high catch total from last year (111; he’s on pace for 114) and finish with 1,400 yards receiving.

 TE Ranks by Week (PPR)
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Antonio Gates SD - - - - 1 6 - 14 8 - 47
Ben Watson NO 30 34 14 21 7 1 15 1 11 34 -
Brent Celek PHI 42 - - 17 6 - 32 - - 5 6
Cameron Brate TB - - - 42 - - 42 11 36 49 9
Charles Clay BUF 20 14 4 3 37 8 21 - 43 16 40
Coby Fleener IND 43 52 13 2 32 30 18 7 22 - 18
Crockett Gillmore BAL 31 1 17 - - 24 12 16 - 8 5
Delanie Walker TEN 14 - 9 - 18 7 8 12 1 21 2
Eric Ebron DET 12 4 12 26 - - 3 25 - 26 -
Gary Barnidge CLE 25 37 2 4 3 5 4 6 24 3 -
Greg Olsen CAR 40 8 1 24 - 2 16 5 6 7 7
Heath Miller PIT 11 19 31 48 17 47 - 4 23 22 -
Jacob Tamme ATL 29 11 45 10 4 23 19 2 10 - 39
Jason Witten DAL 5 10 11 - 16 - 7 29 - 19 24
Jimmy Graham SEA 9 42 3 20 22 3 26 10 - 25 20
Jordan Cameron MIA 16 20 27 27 - 14 27 24 42 51 14
Jordan Reed WAS 6 6 5 16 - - 1 - 12 4 13
Julius Thomas JAC - - - - 28 4 46 - 29 36 8
Kyle Rudolph MIN 18 7 36 36 - 18 17 26 26 48 1
Ladarius Green SD 7 18 22 6 14 13 5 40 - - 41
Martellus Bennett CHI 10 22 22 1 19 15 - 22 4 35 25
Owen Daniels DEN 36 28 8 14 45 31 - 20 3 43 12
Richard Rodgers GB 26 12 34 5 13 28 - 28 5 9 31
Rob Gronkowski NE 1 2 6 - 11 9 2 3 19 2 21
Travis Kelce KC 3 15 7 9 20 10 9 8 - 20 15
Tyler Eifert CIN 2 5 50 8 2 12 - 18 2 30 3
Vernon Davis SF 21 13 - - - 51 14 17 52 37 10
Will Tye NYG - - - - 15 33 - 37 31 15 -
Zach Ertz PHI 22 30 24 34 9 19 11 - 17 11 35
Zach Miller CHI - 33 38 - - - - - 13 1 17

Quick Observations:

- Can anyone say with any certainty that Celek is starting to emerge as a fantasy property? We’ve settled for less than three top-six finishes in six tries from many other waiver-wire tight ends.

- Barnidge’s totals with Josh McCown as his quarterback in Weeks 3-8: 36 catches, 512 yards and six touchdowns. In two Johnny Manziel starts prior to the Browns’ Week 11 bye, the 30-year-old’s totals were eight receptions, 100 yards and a score. I’m inclined to believe owners should be prepared for the second act of “Barnidge Fever”.

- Say it and it will happen? The CBS broadcast team talked on multiple occasions during Thursday Night Football last week about the Jacksonville coaching staff’s desire to get Julius Thomas more involved. Although it seemed to come at the cost of neglecting Allen Hurns, Thomas posted his second-best fantasy day as a Jaguar. It is impossible to say at this point if it is a beginning of a trend or not, but Jacksonville has plenty of reasons ($$$) to make him its top red-zone target.

- Is Gronkowski human after all or are defenses just more committed than ever to making sure some other Patriot wins his matchup? After seven consecutive TE1 finishes, he has been relatively quiet in two of his last three contests. OC Josh McDaniels is a brilliant play-designer, so it seems reasonable that Gronk will get rolling again in a week or two.

- Owen Daniels refuses to go away, just about the time owners would like him to do so. Still, Vernon Davis is a tight end I’d want on my fantasy playoff roster, particularly as a reserve. Last week’s 6-68-0 line sounds about right for a highly-athletic tight end in a Gary Kubiak offense.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.