A significant part of what I do during each summer is identify matchups
I want my teams to enjoy (and avoid) in the fantasy postseason.
Thus, it makes sense at the midway point of the regular season to
take some time to revisit the playoff matchups fantasy managers
should be targeting with a little over a month before the fantasy
postseason begins in most leagues.
While I realize many leagues will begin their playoffs in Week
15 this season, some will start a week before or a week after.
To help as many readers as possible, I took a deeper look at each
team's schedule beginning in Week 14. The main purpose of all
this was to identify any matchup against a defense/unit that currently
ranks inside the top 10 in terms of most fantasy points allowed
to that position.
Below you will find every team that has at least two soft (top
10) matchups in the final four weeks of the fantasy season (Weeks
14-17). The number in parentheses in the "multiple playoff
matchups" section indicates how many soft matchups that team/player
has. The "widely started players" section is for those
players/units who could experience more success than usual but
will likely be starting in most leagues anyway. The "potential
matchup-based starters" section is for those players who
likely are not weekly starters but could overachieve due in part
to their favorable matchups. That will be the focus of this week's
content.
Quarterbacks
Multiple playoff matchups against the 10 most accommodating
fantasy defenses: Raiders (3), Steelers (3), Titans (3), 49ers
(2), Cardinals (2), Football Team (2), Jaguars (2), Chargers (2),
Bengals (2), Eagles (2), Cowboys (2)
Potential matchup-based starters during the playoffs
Derek
Carr (KC, CLE,
DEN, IND) - The Chiefs have
been more stingy against quarterbacks of late, but how much of
that is a function of facing Herbert, Hurts and Josh
Allen (Weeks 3-5) as opposed to Taylor
Heinicke, Ryan
Tannehill, Daniel
Jones and Jordan
Love (Weeks 6-9)? The Browns have been beset by injuries in
the secondary for most of the season, and it's fair to wonder
how advantageous of a matchup they will be if/when Denzel Ward
and Greg Newsome can stay healthy for multiple weeks at a time.
The Colts are a team that should be a much more menacing matchup
than they are, but they have surrendered at least three passing
touchdowns to five quarterbacks through nine games.
Ryan
Tannehill (JAC,
PIT, SF, MIA) - Tennessee
has established what it is on offense, so Tannehill isn't going
to throw 40-plus times unless he is hit with a negative game script
that he hasn't seen much all season. None of these four opponents
is likely to jump out to enough of a lead to make the Titans uncomfortable,
so he will have to get by on efficiency - as is often the case
with him. Efficiency could be enjoyed in at least three of these
matchups: the Jaguars have often looked like they have the worst
secondary in the league, the 49ers are hopelessly undermanned
on the back end and the Dolphins struggle to rush the passer.
Jimmy
Garoppolo/Trey
Lance (CIN, ATL, TEN, HOU)
- By the time Week 14 rolls around, Lance should be starting
if only to get him some experience for 2022. If that is the case,
I will feel much stronger about this recommendation. The Bengals
have shown some signs of cracking lately after getting whipped
by Mike White
and Baker Mayfield
but will likely end up around league-average at their worst. The
Titans are quickly becoming a scary matchup, having not allowed
more than 24.7 fantasy points to any quarterback (Patrick
Mahomes, Carson
Wentz, Matthew
Stafford) in the last three weeks despite facing at least
48 pass attempts in each game. The same cannot be said for the
Falcons (who have allowed four quarterbacks to top 30 fantasy
points) or Texans (who often catch a break statistically on pass
defense because teams are running on them so often to protect
big leads in the second half).
Trevor
Lawrence (TEN, HOU,
NYJ, NE) - This schedule looks appetizing on the surface.
However, the Titans have stiffened up substantially in recent
weeks and the Jets and Texans give up so much on the ground that
it would not behoove the Jaguars to force the passing game. Still,
I would be willing to recommend Lawrence in a pinch because I
believe that much in his talent.
Running Backs
Multiple playoff matchups against the 10 most accommodating
fantasy defenses: Broncos (4), Chiefs (3), 49ers (2), Lions (2),
Rams (2), Bears (2), Browns (2), Giants (2), Texans (2), Football
Team (2)
Potential matchup-based starters during the playoffs
Melvin
Gordon/Javonte
Williams (DET, CIN, LV, LAC)
- I realize Gordon and/or Williams are likely starting
in most competitive leagues, but the Broncos hit the motherlode
in terms of potentially helping fantasy managers bring home a
title. The Lions (second-ranked defense in terms of most fantasy
points allowed to the position), Bengals (fourth), Raiders (10th)
and Chargers (sixth) have all been very accommodating to running
backs. However, the big question is whether Denver will cooperate
or not. The running back committee that so many hoped would go
away by midseason appears is still going strong, reducing the
likelihood either Gordon or Williams is a true league-winner.
The division of labor would matter for a less truly elite ground
game like Cleveland's, but the Broncos lack the dominant offensive
line, commitment to the run game and haven't been consistent enough
defensively to believe they will be able to take complete advantage
of this soft late slate.
Clyde
Edwards-Helaire (LV,
LAC, PIT, CIN) -
This obviously assumes CEH is ready to go before or immediately
after the team's Week 12 bye. (He was designated for return from
IR on Nov. 10.) One of the mysteries surrounding Kansas City's
struggling offense - there is more to it than defenses playing
Cover 2 shell - is HC Andy Reid's decision to give Darrel
Williams the kind of heavy workload most fantasy managers
have been wanting him to give Edwards-Helaire. And not only is
Williams is failing to do anything of note with those touches
(averaging less than one fantasy point per touch during CEH's
absence despite recording 15 receptions), but Derrick
Gore also showed in a brief Week 8 MNF glimpse that he had
more juice. While Williams is a serviceable jack-of-all-trades,
opponents are not threatened by him.
Before his knee injury, Edwards-Helaire was straddling the low-end
RB2/flex line. (He cannot help it that Kansas City does not use
him more often as a receiver - arguably the best part of his game.)
Perhaps he returns to the same role he had before the injury,
but it may be more than mere coincidence that the Chiefs' offensive
struggles began right about the same time CEH went down. Even
if very little changes when he returns, we have already seen Edwards-Helaire
take advantage of soft matchups as a runner (Weeks 3-4). In the
Raiders, Chargers and Bengals, he will face the fourth-, sixth-
and 10th-most forgiving defenses against running backs. That is
enough to make him a solid RB2 option at the very least. If this
offense begins to understand that it works better when CEH is
more involved, he could have RB1 upside in any or all of those
matchups.
Wide Receivers
Multiple playoff matchups against the 10 most accommodating
fantasy defenses: Jets (4), Patriots (2), Titans (2), Texans (2),
Steelers (2), Saints (2), Dolphins (2), Panthers (2), Jaguars
(2), Cowboys (2), Eagles (2)
Potential matchup-based starters during the playoffs
Corey
Davis/Elijah
Moore? (NO, MIA, JAC, TB) -
There is a lot that needs to go right here, but Davis and/or Moore
could lead more than a few patient managers to fantasy championships
(or at least to the brink since Tampa Bay's secondary should be
healthy by Week 17).
Before missing the last two games with a hip issue, Davis was
Zach Wilson's most trusted option. In the two full games Davis
and Wilson have missed, Moore is finally getting the chance to
show why so many wanted him as a WR4 in the middle rounds this
summer. Will Mike White continue to lean on Moore despite the
return of Davis? Will Wilson do the same when he is ready to return?
Will OC Mike LaFleur put an end to the rotation at receiver? Will
LaFleur seamlessly blend the smooth and silky route-running of
the smallish Moore with Davis' size and power? The favorite to
be the difference-maker in December this year is Davis, but there
is at least a 50-50 chance both players will be key contributors
during the fantasy playoffs.
DeVonta
Smith (bye, WAS,
NYG, WAS) - Thank you, Washington
Football Team. Prior to last week's bye, Week 8 was the first
time that an opponent did not have at least two receivers score
13.6 fantasy points. It has been so bad for the Football Team
that three opposing wideouts have reached double figures in the
same game against them twice. Meanwhile, Smith is responsible
for the three best (and four of the top five) single-game fantasy
performances from Philadelphia receivers. All this is to say that
if someone from the Eagles' receiving corps is going to take advantage
of a favorable matchup, it will be Smith. (Making it even more
likely that Smith will shine against Washington is the fact that
the Football Team ranks as the seventh-stingiest defense for running
backs.) The Giants rank as the 12th-most forgiving matchup against
receivers, so Smith could perform at a WR2 level in that one as
well.
Jakobi
Meyers (bye, IND,
BUF, JAC) - Meyers has not
had the benefit of an easy slate of late, although New England
has established it doesn't care much about the passing attack
in any game it feels like it can run 35 times. The North Carolina
State product has generally disappointed in any game the Patriots
won and been serviceable fantasy WR3 in losses. If that logic
holds until the fantasy playoffs, it is reasonable to assume his
best game will come against the Bills and his worst will come
versus the Jags.
Jamal
Agnew (TEN, HOU,
NYJ, NE) - Perhaps Marvin Jones should be included here,
but the overall WR37 is probably starting in the majority of leagues.
At any rate, Jacksonville has somehow become an offense more comfortable
leaning on Dan Arnold and Agnew than Jones and Laviska
Shenault. Some of that is circumstantial, as Seattle ran away
with the teams' Week 8 affair quickly and Buffalo's stout defense
locked up Jones in Week 9. Nevertheless, Agnew has become a trusted
option in the slot for Trevor Lawrence over the last month, averaging
about eight targets in that time. The Jaguars figure to be in
negative game script against the Titans, while the Patriots could
easily put the clamps on Jones. That means Agnew could be useful
for at least two games and maybe a third if Jacksonville decides
to take advantage of Houston's soft zone coverage.
Tight Ends
Multiple playoff matchups against the 10 most accommodating
fantasy defenses: Browns (2), Bengals (2), Jaguars (2), Chargers
(2), Patriots (2), Raiders (2), Chiefs (2), Broncos (2), Giants
(2), Texans (2), Saints (2), Football Team (2), Jets (2)
Potential matchup-based starters during the playoffs
Evan
Engram (LAC,
DAL, PHI, CHI) - Much like
the other names below, Engram probably will not be the reason
teams make it to Week 17. He should be of some use in Week 16,
however. In part because the Eagles place such a high priority
on limiting wide receiver production and big plays, they cannot
stop tight ends. Beginning in Week 6, Philadelphia has allowed
O.J. Howard,
Foster Moreau,
T.J. Hockenson,
Stephen Anderson
and Donald Parham
to score at least 12.9 fantasy points. Maybe some of New York's
receivers are healthy enough by then to limit Engram, but that
will not change the inability of Philly's linebackers to hold
up in coverage.
Adam
Trautman (NYJ, TB,
MIA, CAR) - Trautman has managed to make Juwan
Johnson a non-factor as the season has progressed, although
it is fair to wonder how much that actually means in this slow-moving
offense being quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian. With 13 targets
in his last two games, there is at least some hope for him to
emerge as a spot-starter in December.
David
Njoku (BAL, LV,
GB, PIT) - This is not so much a recommendation as it
is an observation. Njoku is the only Cleveland tight end that
has shown any upside in 2021, which is sad considering how talented
Harrison Bryant
is. It seems unlikely that a fantasy team good enough to make
the playoffs is unlikely to dig this deep for help, but anything
is possible in the COVID era.
Defense/Special Teams
Multiple playoff matchups against the 10 most accommodating
fantasy defenses: Saints (3), Seahawks (3), Packers (2), Bengals
(2), Falcons (2), Buccaneers (2), Broncos (2), Jaguars (2), Chargers
(2), 49ers (2), Titans (2), Jets (2)
Widely started DSTs who get a playoff "bump":
Buccaneers, Saints, Broncos, Packers
Potential matchup-based starter during the playoffs
Titans (JAC, PIT, SF, MIA)
- Tennessee is still largely unowned in most leagues
despite posting some rather impressive fantasy performances against
good competition lately. While some of that has come via a bevy
of return touchdowns, Tennessee is now also getting after the
quarterback (at least three sacks in three of its last four games)
and shutting down the run (last four opponents ran for less than
100 yards). San Francisco is the only offense of the final four
that is even a bit scary, but the 49ers' offense is not on par
with some of the Titans' recent opponents (Bills, Chiefs, Colts,
Rams). Even better for anyone who has the foresight to roster
this defense: none of its opponents before the Week 13 bye is
great offensively either (Saints, Texans, Patriots). If Tennessee
can sustain its current level of play until the end of the regular
season, it could easily finish the year as the runaway top DST.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.