As discussed in this space last
week, the remainder of my postseason columns will feature my
NFL.com Playoff Challenge roster (for as long as applicable), followed
by my weekly league predictions and DFS prognostications.
NFL.com
Playoff Challenge Roster
QB: Aaron Rodgers (x2)
RB: Aaron Jones (x2)
RB: Derrick Henry (x2)
WR: Davante Adams (x2)
WR: Cooper Kupp (x2)
TE: Travis Kelce (x2)
K: Harrison Butker (x2)
D/ST: Packers (x2)
DraftKings
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by his projected point total. Each position is sorted
by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
In part because there are not many discount options on the slate,
DFS players are going to have to pay up at quarterback this week.
Tannehill is the cheapest realistic option on the board, but he
is extremely unlikely to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Allen or
Mahomes, if only because Tennessee's game plan should revolve around
Derrick Henry and keeping the ball away from the Bengals' offense.
As we saw last week, Allen and Mahomes have five-touchdown upside.
Given the quality of the defenses on both sides, it seems unlikely
one of the two - if not both - fail to get there this week, but
the game figures to be a shootout anyway. Prior to Burrow's Week
17 effort (446-4-0) versus the Chiefs, the last time Kansas City
gave up a blowup performance to a quarterback was in Week 5 against
Allen. Much has changed on both sides since then, but it seems unlikely
that Allen will post another 40-plus fantasy points against this
defense. Brady (Week 14) proved Buffalo could be attacked defensively,
but it should be noted that no quarterback threw for more than two
touchdowns against the Bills all season. Mahomes will need to be
engaged as a runner in this one if he hopes to keep pace with Allen
from a fantasy perspective.
For the second straight week, Stafford appears to be the best
bargain ($6200). He comes at least $1000 cheaper than either of
the top two players above and may be the only other one that has
a puncher's chance to throw for more than three scores. Much has
been made about the Tampa Bay run defense showing some cracks
late in the year, but the way to attack the Bucs is still through
the air. The Rams will try to maintain some degree of balance,
but the onus will be on Stafford and his receivers to force Brady
and his beat-up offense to keep pace. Even if Stafford fails to
throw 40-plus times in this one (as I expect Brady to), Stafford
should be a better option than his counterpart. Jalen Ramsey should
line up across from Mike Evans at least half of the time, and
it is not as if Breshad Perriman, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller
or Cyril Grayson (if he plays) can be asked to make up for the
absences of Chris Godwin and/or Antonio Brown.
Perhaps if Rodgers was priced a few hundred dollars cheaper,
I could make a stronger case for him as the smartest DFS play
at the position. Alas, he lacks the same 300-yard, four-touchdown
potential of Allen and Mahomes as well as their rushing upside.
At a $400 discount on the former and a $200 discount on the latter,
playing Rodgers is only worth it if that minimal discount allows
DFS players to get a second stud receiver in their lineups. Burrow
is the only other option that will make it on some of my teams,
but I can't say I'm overly optimistic about him improving on last
week's numbers all that much. The Titans have not faced much in
the way of a high-end quarterback over the second half of the
season, but the combination of their clock-killing running game
and defensive front seven is a bad mix for anyone hoping Burrow
will get enough volume to match the big boys at his position this
week.
Henry figures to be a popular start this week. No one should be
surprised if he returns to his usual insane workload despite missing
more than two months with his foot injury. Henry should be in only
about 10 percent of lineups just so we can benefit if that ends
up being the case and he shows no rust, but the obvious risk is
that his workload is capped at 15-18 touches as a way to ease him
back into game action. That risk should be enough to keep his ownership
down, as should the fact that most DFS players will have to pay
up at quarterback and receiver. If other DFS players follow that
logic, DFS players should hope that Fournette's participation in
Wednesday's walkthrough was foreshadowing for the rest of the week.
With Fournette available this weekend - even if it comes behind
a potentially shorthanded offensive line - it gives DFS players
three quality options below $6000. Bernard may handle some passing-down
snaps if the Bucs are facing negative game script late, but Fournette
could push for 20 touches (including six or so targets) with Ronald Jones unlikely to go and a somewhat limited group of pass-catchers.
About the only thing that should limit Mitchell's workload -
besides a nagging knee injury - is if San Francisco falls behind
by two or more scores to Green Bay in the second half. The rookie
has handled Henry-like workloads in the last six games he has
played. The Packers appear to be strong against running backs
if we look at their season-long numbers, but some of their metrics
- including how often they give up explosive runs - suggest Mitchell
could be poised for a big day. Singletary began to exert himself
as the feature back in Buffalo at the start of the fantasy playoffs
and has not looked back. With at least 17 touches in five straight
games and attached to perhaps the best offense in the league,
he has a reasonable chance to score two touchdowns for the fourth
straight week.
There is a clear drop-off after the first four. Green Bay may
end up with the highest-scoring backfield this weekend, but the
threat of Dillon stealing late carries, Jones having about an
18-touch ceiling and a quality San Francisco run defense is enough
to lay off one or both for DFS purposes. The Packers have made
it clear they like the idea of forcing defenses to tackle Dillon
in the fourth quarter - especially when the temperature moves
closer to single digits - so DFS players should expect to see
that play out yet again if Green Bay continues to live in positive
game script this weekend. Travis Homer - largely on the back of
his 73-yard touchdown run early in Week 13 - is the only individual
running back to have scored at least 15 fantasy points against
the 49ers since Week 9. Mixon missed a wonderful opportunity to
take advantage of what should have been a soft matchup against
the Raiders last week. He now faces a Tennessee defense that has
not allowed an individual running back to top 15 fantasy points
since Week 10. Given the advantage the Titans' front four has
over Cincinnati's offensive line, it seems unlikely Mixon proves
worthy of his $6600 price tag barring a ton of usage in the passing
game. To that end, no running back has more than five receptions
against Tennessee this year (the last time it happened was Week
6).
If Tampa Bay finds itself in a clear negative game script late,
Bernard could be a reasonable option for those pinching pennies
at the position. Akers looked amazing considering he is roughly
six months removed from tearing his Achilles, but he doesn't offer
much of a discount over Fournette, Singletary or Mitchell and
will likely continue to lose carries to Michel. If CEH remains
out this week, I have McKinnon far too low. Darrel
Williams' toe injury may have been more of the reason why
he was pulled from the Wild Card game, but McKinnon certainly
earned a right to lead this backfield (assuming another absence
by Edwards-Helaire) with his play against the Steelers. McKinnon
would likely slot in right below Aaron
Jones if CEH is ruled out.
Kupp and Adams are the two best plays on the board, although it
is not hard to imagine a scenario in which Samuel challenges them.
Kupp (9-96-2) and Adams (12-132-1) each roasted this week's opponent
in Week 3 victories, first and foremost. Tampa Bay's run defense
more than held its own against Philly last week - outside of a 34-yard
TD run from Boston Scott after building a 31-0 lead - once again
proving teams have to beat the Bucs through the air. The Rams ran
for 76 yards (3.2 per carry) in the first meeting with Tampa Bay,
so while the return of a healthy Cam Akers could bump that average
up a bit, it probably won't change the overall effectiveness of
the running game all that much. Los Angeles will need to throw to
win, and it will largely fall upon Sean Murphy-Bunting to keep up
with Kupp in the slot. Murphy-Bunting was not active the first time
around, but his Pro Football Focus coverage grades have been average
at best since he returned from injury in Week 11. Because the slot
often allows for receivers to avoid contact at the line of scrimmage
and often gives them a "two-way go," Kupp should feast
again. Perhaps it makes sense to think of him as an extension of
the running game this week.
Emmanuel Moseley saw the most of Adams in the first meeting and
held his own (3-23-0 on five targets when Adams was in Moseley's
coverage), but the 25-year-old corner does not travel with receivers.
While Ambry Thomas has earned the trust of the coaching staff
in recent weeks and performed well over the last month on the
left side of the defense, it would be stunning if he does not
end up lining up across from Adams most of the day. No offense
to Thomas, but Adams can make even the best corners look average
most weeks. I am hesitant to put too much faith in Chase this
week because it could be a Higgins' week and considering how much
production the Titans give up in the slot (Boyd). With that said,
it is notable Higgins appeared to be at least somewhat limited
by his foot injury versus the Raiders, while Boyd hasn't been
targeted more than six times in any of his last five games. Furthermore,
former LSU teammate Kristian Fulton and 33-year-old Jackrabbit
Jenkins could struggle to slow down Chase. If Joe Burrow is going
to show the kind of trust in Chase that he did on several occasions
last week, there is not much Fulton or Jenkins will be able to
do to stop it. Samuel has been a receiver masquerading as a running
back for half of the season at this point, essentially guaranteed
at least 10 touches each week. He had 14 against Tennessee in
Week 16 in the one game San Francisco lost since his conversion.
If Green Bay can play with a lead this weekend, expect another
high-usage day from him.
Diggs was not needed much in the first meeting against KC or
last week, but he will be busy this week if Bills-Chiefs turns
into the shootout many think it will. At $6500, he is priced just
about right as a WR2 alongside Kupp/Adams/Samuel in DFS lineups
that fade Henry at running back. Brown is a huge wild card. If
Tennessee can control the clock, he may not be needed all that
much. If the Bengals can jump out to a two-score lead, Brown could
easily finish as a top-three fantasy receiver this week. There
is also at least a small chance Cincy CB Chidobe Awuzie travels
with Brown a bit, slightly lowering the ceiling for the dominant
third-year wideout and creating a path for Jones (or even Westbrook-Ikhine)
to ball out. Not only has he made Van Jefferson mostly an afterthought,
but Beckham has also been far too active to ignore. With touchdown
catches in six of his last nine games and the Rams unlikely to
run the ball with much success versus the Bucs, OBJ seems like
a reasonable bet to attract at least seven or eight looks regardless
of whether he lines up across from Carlton Davis or Jamel Dean.
We have only seen vintage Hill once since Kansas City's Week
12 bye, which makes him an obvious contrarian pick as well as
a risky one. With the Chiefs seemingly embracing a more balanced
offensive approach these days, it is much more likely Hill has
a high-volume, low-yardage day than the blowup games we have become
accustomed to over the years. Evans may begin to get the appreciation
he deserves if he hits this week, but the Rams' zone-heavy defense
makes it more likely this will be a Rob Gronkowski week. Higgins
is a bit lower than most might expect because I did not project
him for a touchdown. If the foot is somehow a non-issue this week
(he has not appeared on the practice injury report yet this week),
he is a very good pivot from those DFS players who are afraid
of chasing Chase's points from last week.
Pringle and Jones are the best lower-cost alternatives at receiver,
in my opinion. While his two biggest games of the year came against
the Steelers, Pringle has taken control of the second receiver
job in Kansas City. If this game shoots out as expected, rest
assured Hill and Travis Kelce will not be the only Chiefs' pass-catchers
finding the end zone. Secondary receivers have consistently hit
against Cincinnati of late, which makes a lot of sense because
Awuzie has played well while Eli Apple typically has not. Whoever
sees the most time opposite Apple (Jones makes the most sense
given how the Bengals have deployed Awuzie) should have a field
day. My favorite sub-$4000 options: McKenzie and Jennings. McKenzie's
snaps have not increased all that much from earlier in the season,
but he is a player OC Brian Daboll will utilize five or six times
in the 20 or so offensive plays he gets. While it is hard to say
Jennings has huge upside when San Francisco is struggling to get
George Kittle involved lately, Jimmy Garoppolo also has not attempted
more than 30-32 passes much lately. If Green Bay forces the 49ers
into negative game script in the second half, it could mean five
or more targets for Jennings.
Four tight ends scored more than 10 fantasy points against Buffalo
this year; Kelce had the best day of that bunch (6-57-1). With Tyreek Hill's explosiveness playing less of a role in the offense than
it was earlier in the season, Kelce should be able to exceed his
production from the first meeting. The Bills' linebacker and safety
play has been very good, however, so he is being projected near
his ceiling above. Kittle has delivered four consecutive duds for
fantasy purposes, although some of that has to do with San Francisco
controlling the game script as much as it has over that time. Another
factor is what Kittle brings as a run-blocker. Kittle's recent downturn
has coincided with much more consistency from Brandon Aiyuk, who
may have his hands full against Jaire Alexander and/or Eric Stokes.
If that ends up being the case and San Francisco throws the ball
as much as I expect them to, Kittle should have a big day. The best
bet of the tight ends priced at $5000 or above this weekend may
be Gronkowski. The Rams have done a very good job at keeping tight
ends out of the end zone (four TDs), but nine of them have still
scored at least 10 fantasy points. With Mike Evans expected to see
a lot of attention and Leonard Fournette likely to grab the attention
of the linebackers, Gronk has a shot to get behind LA's zone defense
a time or two this weekend.
Given the absence of a stud tight end facing a helpless combination
of linebackers and safeties this week, it is advisable to pay
down this week and focus on the likes of Knox, Higbee and (believe
it or not) Firkser. Knox had the biggest day of any tight end
this season against Kansas City in the first meeting (3-117-1)
and seems to be a favorite of Josh Allen in the red zone. The
Chiefs buttoned up their coverage against tight ends over the
second half of the year, but ask New England how much elite work
against the position in the regular season meant last week when
Knox erupted versus the Patriots. If Knox does not fit into your
specific DFS plan, Higbee might. Higbee was targeted on four of
Matthew Stafford's 17 pass attempts last week and recorded a target
share of at least 25 percent in the previous two contests. Tampa
Bay allowed Dallas Goedert to run free last week (6-92-0) despite
the fact Philadelphia did not have a passer like Matthew Stafford
or receiver on par with Cooper Kupp or Odell Beckham. For those
looking to spend close to the bare minimum at tight end, Firkser
($3100) may be the best option. Not only did the Harvard product
close the regular season with a touchdown in each of his last
two outings, but the Cincinnati defense has also struggled against
the position. The Bengals allowed 10 double-digit fantasy performances
(and 14 fantasy efforts of at least eight points) to tight ends
during the regular season.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
DK Bonus
DK
Packers
$3,200
24
3
2
1
0
13.0
Rams
$3,000
17
4
2
0
1
9.0
Titans
$2,900
23
4
2
0
0
8.0
Buccaneers
$3,100
27
3
1
0
0
5.0
Bills
$2,600
34
3
1
0
-1
4.0
Chiefs
$2,800
31
2
1
0
-1
3.0
49ers
$2,500
34
3
0
0
-1
2.0
Bengals
$2,700
27
1
0
0
0
1.0
Paying down at running back and tight end may not be enough to fit
the Packers or Rams into DFS lineups, but they will be my units
of choice wherever possible. There is no obvious pick among the
eight remaining teams, but sometimes finding the right DST comes
down to taking advantage of average quarterback play or an important
injury to their opponent. In the case in Green Bay, Jimmy Garoppolo
is probably the most likely of the eight starting quarterbacks to
crumble this weekend, especially in what should be another cold
day in Lambeau Field. As for the Rams, the expected absence of RT
Tristan Wirfs (ankle) could create problems in the likely event
replacement Josh Wells struggles to hold up against Aaron Donald
or Von Miller. With the Bucs running low on healthy and/or available
offensive weapons, this may be one of the rare weeks it is OK to
target a Tom Brady-led offense. The 49ers have been getting pressure
on quarterbacks at least 40 percent of drop-backs consistently lately
despite rushing four defenders much more often than not. It is rarely
ever a good idea to line up a fantasy defense opposing Aaron Rodgers,
but the 49ers might be able to get 3-4 sacks and strip the ball
from him on one of those occasions. If I have no choice but to go
with a low-cost option on defense, San Francisco will be my choice.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
