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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Efficient Wide Receivers
7/4/19

Over the past two weeks we’ve looked at efficient and inefficient quarterbacks and running backs, so this week it’s time to put the wide receivers under the microscope.

We will analyze wideouts based on their ability to score every time a quarterbacks turns one loose in his direction … fantasy points produced per target. By using FPts/T it peels away the cover that some receivers have from massive volume. Of course, wide receivers are extremely dependent on having a competent quarterback and most of the guys near the top of the list catch balls from Pro Bowlers.

Below are five highly efficient receivers.

Tyler Lockett

1) Tyler Lockett, Seattle – Despite a miniscule 71 targets (4.4 targets per game), Lockett nearly racked up 1,000 yards, while averaging a career-high 10.2 FPts/G. How did he do it? Touchdowns! After just three scores over two seasons he produced 10 last season. And these weren’t the short range variety that a tight end or running back could hijack next season. He averaged 31 yards on those 10 scores. That put him on top of this list averaging 2.301 fantasy points per target. While there are question marks now that he’s the primary guy instead of getting single coverage across from Doug Baldwin, his speed should still work while his targets increase even on a “run-first” offense like the Seahawks. He should easily outpace his current ADP 52.1 (22nd WR off the board).

2) Mike Williams, LA Chargers – Like Lockett, Williams amassed his fantasy points by getting into the end zone. He scored 10 times on just 66 targets, but unlike Lockett, six of the 10 were from inside the 10-yard line. His size (6-foot-4, 220 lbs.) makes him a great target in the red zone and that won’t change, however, the return of tight end Hunter Henry will cost Williams red zone targets and have a larger downward pull on his fantasy production than the increase in targets he might see from the absence of Tyrell Williams (in Oakland). As the 25th receiver off the board (ADP 58.5), I’d much rather have Lockett six picks earlier.

3) Tyreek Hill, Kansas City – Hill was the highest-scoring receiver in the league and it wasn’t particularly close 241 points (15.1 FPts/G). He finished third on our list at 1.759 FPts/T. His quarterback will only get better in his second year as a starter and the running game, without Kareem Hunt, might force Hill to line up in the backfield more often. The only thing that can derail Hill is the commissioner. Hopefully, we will know the length of any suspension before draft day.

4) Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – I had Kupp on multiple teams last season and love what he brings to the table. He scored six touchdowns in eight games and averaged 11.9 FPts/G on just seven targets per game. And Jared Goff seemed to be more potent when Kupp was in the lineup. Given the question marks concerning the Rams’ running game, if Kupp is healthy he should produce as well, or better, than last season when he ranked 10th in FPts/G and 1.698 FPts/T. Going off the board at No. 20 (ADP 47.8), makes him a bargain.

5) Will Fuller, Houston – Like Kupp, Fuller spent most of the season watching from the sidelines, playing in only seven games. Also like Kupp, Fuller was highly productive when on the field averaging 10.6 FPts/G on just 6.4 targets per game). With all eyes rightfully on DeAndre Hopkins, Fuller can take full advantage of single coverage. If management was success in helping the OL in front of Deshaun Watson Fuller will have more time to break free behind the secondary. Coming off an ACL injury in October, it will all be about the health report. He’s currently the 34th WR off the board. So do you feel lucky?

And five unproductive guys.

1) Willie Snead, Baltimore – It was just a few years ago that Snead was a solid WR3 seeing 100+ targets in New Orleans and catching 70 of them for 900-1,000 yards. Of course, that was with a future Hall of Fame quarterback under center. In Baltimore last season he didn’t produce much with his 95 targets “amassing” just 651 yards and one score (0.762 FPts/T). Joe Flacco is gone, but Lamar Jackson simply isn’t ready to help his receivers be big-time fantasy options.

2) DeVante Parker, Miami – Parker has been teasing fantasy owners (read disappointing) for the last two seasons after posting interesting numbers in 2016 (56-744-4). Last season’s 11-game “production” was simply ugly as failing to catch 23-of-47 targets will clearly indicate. Sure, the quarterback play wasn’t good and if Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center should improve, but he could also be working with Josh Rosen by midseason. Even at an ADP of 157.2, that’s hard to justify.

3) Randall Cobb, Dallas – If you can’t produce with Aaron Rodgers as your passer (0.826 FPts/T), why would anyone think he’d improve in Dallas with Dak Prescott. He’ll still be fighting for usage behind Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup and a running back in Ezekiel Elliott, who we saw from last week’s numbers, needs high volume to produce his statistics.

4) Jarvis Landry, Cleveland – He’s not a surprise showing up on this list, as he’s produced under a 1.000 level in four of five seasons. In 2018 he saw top-10 targets and finished 33rd in fantasy points produced (0.903 FPts/T). Now, with Odell Beckham Jr. on the roster, he’ll see a lot fewer targets making his job tougher.

5) Michael Gallup, Dallas – When the Cowboys drafted him in the third round they hoped his raw talent would develop into a quality No. 1 option. Then they made a midseason trade to obtain Cooper. Somewhere along the line they must think either he’s not that guy or he’s going to take a while to develop. They brought in Cobb and coaxed Jason Witten out of retirement for 2019. Gallup might have to fight to see the 4.5 targets a game he saw last season and he didn’t do much with them (0.922 FPts/T).

 2018 WRs: FPts Per Target
Rk Player Tm Tgts Rec Yds TDs Ru
Yds
Ru
TDs
FPts FPts/G FPts/Tgt
1 Tyler Lockett SEA 71 57 965 10 69 0 163.4 10.2 2.301
2 Mike Williams LAC 66 43 664 10 28 1 135.2 8.5 2.048
3 Tyreek Hill KC 137 87 1,479 12 151 1 241.0 15.1 1.759
4 Dante Pettis SF 45 27 467 5 -2 0 76.5 8.5 1.700
5 Cooper Kupp LAR 56 40 566 6 25 0 95.1 11.9 1.698
6 Tre'Quan Smith NO 44 28 427 5 0 0 72.7 5.6 1.652
7 Will Fuller HOU 45 32 503 4 0 0 74.3 10.6 1.651
8 Anthony Miller CHI 54 33 423 7 26 0 86.9 6.2 1.609
9 Robert Foster BUF 44 26 522 3 0 0 70.2 6.4 1.595
10 Calvin Ridley ATL 92 64 821 10 27 0 144.8 9.1 1.574
11 Curtis Samuel CAR 65 39 494 5 84 2 99.8 8.3 1.535
12 Tyrell Williams LAC 64 41 653 5 15 0 96.8 6.5 1.513
13 Rashard Higgins CLE 54 39 572 4 0 0 81.2 6.2 1.504
14 Marquise Goodwin SF 43 23 395 4 9 0 64.4 5.9 1.498
15 DeSean Jackson TB 75 41 774 4 29 1 110.3 9.2 1.471
16 David Moore SEA 52 26 445 5 5 0 75.0 5.8 1.442
17 Mike Evans TB 139 86 1,524 8 0 0 200.4 12.5 1.442
18 Kenny Stills MIA 64 37 553 6 0 0 91.3 6.1 1.427
19 Brandin Cooks LAR 116 80 1,204 5 68 1 163.2 10.9 1.407
20 Josh Gordon CLE 71 41 737 4 0 0 97.7 8.1 1.376
21 Robert Woods LAR 131 86 1,219 6 157 1 179.6 11.2 1.371
22 A.J. Green CIN 77 46 694 6 0 0 105.4 11.7 1.369
23 Sammy Watkins KC 55 40 519 3 52 0 75.1 7.5 1.365
24 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 163 115 1,572 11 -7 0 222.5 13.9 1.365
25 T.Y. Hilton IND 120 76 1,270 6 0 0 163.0 11.6 1.358
26 Tyler Boyd CIN 108 76 1,028 7 3 0 145.1 10.4 1.344
27 Chris Hogan NE 53 35 532 3 0 0 71.2 4.7 1.343
28 Josh Reynolds LAR 53 29 402 5 8 0 71.0 6.5 1.340
29 Amari Cooper OAK 108 75 1,004 7 20 0 144.4 9.6 1.337
30 Chris Godwin TB 95 59 842 7 0 0 126.2 7.9 1.328
31 Michael Thomas NO 147 125 1,405 9 0 0 194.5 12.2 1.323
32 D.J. Moore CAR 82 55 788 2 172 0 108.0 6.8 1.317
33 Alshon Jeffery PHI 92 65 843 6 0 0 120.3 9.3 1.308
34 Marvin Jones DET 62 35 508 5 0 0 80.8 9.0 1.303
35 Antonio Brown PIT 169 104 1,297 15 0 0 219.7 14.6 1.300
36 Davante Adams GB 169 111 1,386 13 0 0 216.6 14.4 1.282
37 Julio Jones ATL 170 113 1,676 8 12 0 216.8 13.6 1.275
38 Adam Thielen MIN 155 113 1,373 9 30 0 194.3 12.1 1.254
39 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 98 71 868 4 53 1 122.1 10.2 1.246
40 Julian Edelman NE 108 74 850 6 107 0 131.7 11.0 1.219
41 Chris Conley KC 52 32 334 5 0 0 63.4 4.2 1.219
42 Mohamed Sanu ATL 94 66 838 4 44 0 112.2 7.0 1.194
43 Keenan Allen LAC 137 97 1,196 6 75 0 163.1 10.9 1.191
44 Phillip Dorsett NE 42 32 290 3 29 0 49.9 4.5 1.188
45 Robby Anderson NYJ 93 50 752 6 -8 0 110.4 7.9 1.187
46 Christian Kirk ARI 68 43 590 3 35 0 80.5 6.7 1.184
47 Kenny Golladay DET 118 70 1,063 5 8 0 137.1 9.1 1.162
48 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 124 77 1,052 6 19 0 143.1 11.9 1.154
49 Courtland Sutton DEN 84 42 704 4 -1 0 94.3 5.9 1.123
50 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 166 111 1,426 7 13 0 185.9 11.6 1.120
51 Dede Westbrook JAC 101 66 718 5 98 0 111.6 7.0 1.105
52 Antonio Callaway CLE 81 43 586 5 7 0 89.3 5.6 1.102
53 John Ross CIN 58 21 210 7 9 0 63.9 4.9 1.102
54 Kendrick Bourne SF 66 42 487 4 0 0 72.7 4.5 1.102
55 Demaryius Thomas DEN 89 59 677 5 0 0 97.7 6.5 1.098
56 Stefon Diggs MIN 148 102 1,021 9 62 0 162.3 10.8 1.097
57 Adam Humphries TB 104 76 816 5 11 0 112.7 7.0 1.084
58 Jamison Crowder WAS 50 29 388 2 30 0 53.8 6.0 1.076
59 Sterling Shepard NYG 107 66 872 4 33 0 114.5 7.2 1.070
60 Allen Robinson CHI 94 55 754 4 9 0 100.3 7.7 1.067
61 Corey Davis TEN 112 65 891 4 55 0 118.6 7.4 1.059
62 John Brown BAL 97 42 717 5 4 0 102.1 6.4 1.053
63 Zay Jones BUF 102 56 652 7 0 0 107.2 6.7 1.051
64 Nelson Agholor PHI 97 64 736 4 32 0 100.8 6.3 1.039
65 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 72 38 581 2 29 0 73.0 4.9 1.014
66 Devin Funchess CAR 79 44 549 4 0 0 78.9 5.6 0.999
67 Cole Beasley DAL 86 65 672 3 0 0 85.2 5.3 0.991
68 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 112 69 734 6 0 0 109.4 6.8 0.977
69 Tajae Sharpe TEN 47 26 316 2 16 0 45.2 3.2 0.962
70 Seth Roberts OAK 65 45 494 2 5 0 61.9 4.1 0.952
71 Golden Tate DET 113 74 795 4 34 0 106.9 7.1 0.946
72 Donte Moncrief JAC 90 48 668 3 0 0 84.8 5.3 0.942
73 Taywan Taylor TEN 56 37 466 1 0 0 52.6 4.0 0.939
74 Taylor Gabriel CHI 93 67 688 2 61 0 86.9 5.4 0.934
75 Michael Gallup DAL 68 33 507 2 0 0 62.7 4.2 0.922
76 Jarius Wright CAR 60 43 447 1 39 0 54.6 3.4 0.910
77 Jarvis Landry CLE 148 81 976 4 60 1 133.6 8.4 0.903
78 Zach Pascal IND 45 27 268 2 10 0 39.8 3.6 0.884
79 Keke Coutee HOU 41 28 287 1 0 0 34.7 5.8 0.846
80 Chester Rogers IND 72 53 485 2 -4 0 60.1 4.0 0.835
81 Randall Cobb GB 61 38 384 2 0 0 50.4 5.6 0.826
82 Josh Doctson WAS 79 44 532 2 0 0 65.2 4.3 0.825
83 DaeSean Hamilton DEN 45 30 243 2 0 0 36.3 5.2 0.807
84 Danny Amendola MIA 79 59 575 1 -2 0 63.3 4.2 0.801
85 Keelan Cole JAC 70 38 491 1 0 0 55.1 4.2 0.787
86 Michael Crabtree BAL 100 54 607 3 0 0 78.7 4.9 0.787
87 DeVante Parker MIA 47 24 309 1 0 0 36.9 3.4 0.785
88 Ryan Grant IND 51 35 334 1 0 0 39.4 2.8 0.773
89 Pierre Garcon SF 45 24 286 1 0 0 34.6 4.3 0.769
90 Willie Snead BAL 95 62 651 1 13 0 72.4 5.2 0.762
91 Ryan Switzer PIT 44 36 253 1 21 0 33.4 2.1 0.759
92 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 69 38 449 1 0 0 50.9 4.6 0.738
93 Laquon Treadwell MIN 53 35 302 1 0 0 36.2 2.4 0.683
94 Bruce Ellington HOU 42 31 224 1 2 0 28.6 4.1 0.681
95 Maurice Harris WAS 47 28 304 0 10 0 31.4 2.9 0.668
96 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 67 25 380 1 0 0 44.0 2.9 0.657
97 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 76 37 371 1 0 0 43.1 3.3 0.567
98 Chad Williams ARI 46 17 171 1 9 0 24.0 2.4 0.522