Over the past two weeks we’ve looked at efficient and inefficient
quarterbacks and running
backs, so this week it’s time to put the wide receivers
under the microscope.
We will analyze
wideouts based on their ability to score every time a quarterbacks
turns one loose in his direction … fantasy points produced
per target. By using FPts/T it peels away the cover that some
receivers have from massive volume. Of course, wide receivers
are extremely dependent on having a competent quarterback and
most of the guys near the top of the list catch balls from Pro
Below are five highly efficient receivers.
Lockett, Seattle – Despite a miniscule 71 targets
(4.4 targets per game), Lockett nearly racked up 1,000 yards,
while averaging a career-high 10.2 FPts/G. How did he do it? Touchdowns!
After just three scores over two seasons he produced 10 last season.
And these weren’t the short range variety that a tight end or
running back could hijack next season. He averaged 31 yards on
those 10 scores. That put him on top of this list averaging 2.301
fantasy points per target. While there are question marks now
that he’s the primary guy instead of getting single coverage across
from Doug Baldwin,
his speed should still work while his targets increase even on
a “run-first” offense like the Seahawks. He should easily outpace
his current ADP 52.1 (22nd WR off the board).
Williams, LA Chargers – Like Lockett, Williams amassed
his fantasy points by getting into the end zone. He scored 10
times on just 66 targets, but unlike Lockett, six of the 10 were
from inside the 10-yard line. His size (6-foot-4, 220 lbs.) makes
him a great target in the red zone and that won’t change, however,
the return of tight end Hunter
Henry will cost Williams red zone targets and have a larger
downward pull on his fantasy production than the increase in targets
he might see from the absence of Tyrell
Williams (in Oakland). As the 25th receiver off the board
(ADP 58.5), I’d much rather have Lockett six picks earlier.
Hill, Kansas City – Hill was the highest-scoring
receiver in the league and it wasn’t particularly close 241 points
(15.1 FPts/G). He finished third on our list at 1.759 FPts/T.
His quarterback will only get better in his second year as a starter
and the running game, without Kareem
Hunt, might force Hill to line up in the backfield more often.
The only thing that can derail Hill is the commissioner. Hopefully,
we will know the length of any suspension before draft day.
Kupp, LA Rams – I had Kupp on multiple teams last
season and love what he brings to the table. He scored six touchdowns
in eight games and averaged 11.9 FPts/G on just seven targets
per game. And Jared
Goff seemed to be more potent when Kupp was in the lineup.
Given the question marks concerning the Rams’ running game, if
Kupp is healthy he should produce as well, or better, than last
season when he ranked 10th in FPts/G and 1.698 FPts/T. Going off
the board at No. 20 (ADP 47.8), makes him a bargain.
Fuller, Houston – Like Kupp, Fuller spent most of
the season watching from the sidelines, playing in only seven
games. Also like Kupp, Fuller was highly productive when on the
field averaging 10.6 FPts/G on just 6.4 targets per game). With
all eyes rightfully on DeAndre
Hopkins, Fuller can take full advantage of single coverage.
If management was success in helping the OL in front of Deshaun
Watson Fuller will have more time to break free behind the
secondary. Coming off an ACL injury in October, it will all be
about the health report. He’s currently the 34th WR off the board.
So do you feel lucky?
And five unproductive guys.
Snead, Baltimore – It was just a few years ago that
Snead was a solid WR3 seeing 100+ targets in New Orleans and catching
70 of them for 900-1,000 yards. Of course, that was with a future
Hall of Fame quarterback under center. In Baltimore last season
he didn’t produce much with his 95 targets “amassing” just 651
yards and one score (0.762 FPts/T). Joe
Flacco is gone, but Lamar
Jackson simply isn’t ready to help his receivers be big-time
Parker, Miami – Parker has been teasing fantasy owners
(read disappointing) for the last two seasons after posting interesting
numbers in 2016 (56-744-4). Last season’s 11-game “production”
was simply ugly as failing to catch 23-of-47 targets will clearly
indicate. Sure, the quarterback play wasn’t good and if Ryan
Fitzpatrick is under center should improve, but he could also
be working with Josh
Rosen by midseason. Even at an ADP of 157.2, that’s hard to
Landry, Cleveland – He’s not a surprise showing up
on this list, as he’s produced under a 1.000 level in four of
five seasons. In 2018 he saw top-10 targets and finished 33rd
in fantasy points produced (0.903 FPts/T). Now, with Odell
Beckham Jr. on the roster, he’ll see a lot fewer targets making
his job tougher.
Gallup, Dallas – When the Cowboys drafted him in
the third round they hoped his raw talent would develop into a
quality No. 1 option. Then they made a midseason trade to obtain
Cooper. Somewhere along the line they must think either he’s
not that guy or he’s going to take a while to develop. They
brought in Cobb and coaxed Jason
Witten out of retirement for 2019. Gallup might have to fight
to see the 4.5 targets a game he saw last season and he didn’t
do much with them (0.922 FPts/T).