If you think like me, you dream of getting a quarterback and wide
receiver combination somewhere in the draft because when they are
going well the fantasy points come in bunches. If you make the wrong
choice, however, and they suddenly grow cold, it can put your entire
season in jeopardy.
So I’ve analyzed each pair of quarterback and his highest-ranked
receiver (or tight end) based on current ADP to uncover the best
options. I’ve set up three distinct levels of quarterback-receiver
stacks; the elite stack (read expensive), the mid-tier stack and
the “bargain basement” stack.
Best Elite Stack
The costliest of the elite is a stack involving Patrick Mahomes
and Travis Kelce. Kelce has a first-round ADP (8.6) and Mahomes
a second round (20.8). It means your running back situation will
certainly be “iffy” at best. Substituting Hill (ADP
10.8) for Kelce makes no difference in your selection order in
12-team leagues, the receiver must go in the first round immediately
followed by the quarterback. And in each strategy, they didn’t
produce the most fantasy points in 2020. You should be able to
get the same production from a “lower-cost elite”
pair than the Chiefs.
The most points produced from any stack last season was the connection
of Aaron Rodgers-to-Davante
Adams (53.2 FPts/G). Both are back for one last season if
we are to believe the meme each simultaneously tweeted about a
week ago (it referenced the Michael Jordan 10-part ESPN special
“The Last Dance”). The Packers didn’t change much on offense that
would interfere with this combo achieving great things again in
2021. The late addition of Randall
Cobb, to try to appease “A Rod” isn’t likely to take away
from Adams’ production. Those targets and catches will come from
either Marquez
Valdes-Scantling or Allen
Lazard. Adams (ADP 9.1) must be selected in the opening round,
but Rodgers is a mid-sixth round pick (65.8). This strategy allows
you to fill out the running back starters in rounds two and three
before they get too scarce.
However, I’m “old school” and I like to have
two quality running backs, even in this era of passing. If you
are looking for an elite combo which still allows you to draft
running back-running back to start the draft the best answer is
Justin Herbert-to-Keenan Allen. I think Herbert is the real deal
after a monster rookie season and Allen proves year after year
that he’s a great receiver (four straight seasons over 16
FPts/G). Allen (ADP 27) can be chosen in the third round, Herbert
at the end of the fifth (59.5). Last year they combined for 44
FPts/G with a rookie QB and poorly executed coaching. I could
also be persuaded to go with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, though
I think the Cowboys will try to protect their quarterback early
in this season and not have him throw 50 times a game as he did
in the first four games of 2020. They will be able to do this
because they spent a lot of time and assets on their defense this
off-season and hope not to be playing catchup as much as they
did in 2020.
Best Mid-Tier Stack
There are two clear-cut choices in the mid-tier range as most
of the other options have question marks. Three of the choices
from 11-20 include rookies and we all know rookies are “consistently
inconsistent.”
My favorite choice here is Matt Ryan-to-Calvin Ridley. We know
from history that Ryan (ADP 119.7) will continue to throw the
ball and based on last season, particularly when Julio Jones was
sidelined, his favorite target will be Ridley (ADP 19.7). Ryan
has exceeded 4,000 yards in 10 consecutive seasons. Ridley, without
Jones, averaged 21.9 FPts/G over six games last season.
A close second could be Kirk Cousins-to-Justin Jefferson. Choosing
this option, if you have an early third round draft position you
might be able to start the draft with two running backs, choose
Jefferson in the third round (you hope, as his 23.4 ADP is end
of the second or early third) and fill out your starters and essential
backups before picking Cousins in the 13th round (ADP 147.5).
The primary concern here is that wideout Adam Thielen has enough
talent to become the team’s No.1 target if defenses key
too much on Jefferson.
Best Bargain Basement Stack
A “bargain basement stack” isn’t likely going
to be the every week starter because each of the quarterbacks
at this tier have question marks, such as; Will Deshaun Watson
be allowed to play this season? Is Jameis Winston the starter
in New Orleans? How is Ben Roethlisberger’s arm? Cam Newton’s
shoulder?
For my purposes I’m going to assume Watson will not be
available because of his off-the-field legal issues. If his situation
suddenly clears up both on and off the field (he’s also
requested a trade) his draft ADP would skyrocket and he and Brandin Cooks wouldn’t qualify for the “bargain tier.”
I think the Winston-to-Michael Thomas stack has a chance to significantly
outplay their ADP if everything goes just right. I’m not
saying it will absolutely happen, but given you can draft Thomas
at the end of the fourth round and Winston in the 14th round it
could be a sneaky stack. Winston would be your backup QB heading
into the season and Thomas an everyday WR starter. Then, if Thomas
returns to 2019 form (23.4 FPts/G) and Winston has matured under
Sean Payton’s tutelage, you have an inexpensive stack who
could go on to produce big numbers. Come fantasy playoff time,
Thomas should be fully healthy and this duo could be ready to
lead you to the promised land for little or no cost.