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Favorites & Fades

Week 11

By: Nick Caron | HC Green | Eli Mack | John Fessel
Updated: 11/19/23



Sunday Early:



Sunday Late:





- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Bengals @ Ravens - (Green)
Line: BAL -4.5
Total: 45.5

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja'Marr Chase

Favorites: WR Tyler Boyd

With Tee Higgins (hamstring) sidelined last Sunday, Boyd stepped into a featured role, catching eight passes for 117 yards. Yes, he dropped a would-be touchdown late in the game, but overall, it was easily his best statistical effort of the season. Cincinnati’s short turnaround before a Thursday night encounter with the Ravens means Higgins won’t return, which once again leaves the veteran to fill a prominent spot. He was second to Higgins back in Week 2 against Baltimore with 52 yards on six grabs and should be usable as midrange WR3 on TNF.

On the Fence: WR Trenton Irwin

The trickledown effect of Higgins’ injury continues with Irwin, who is an afterthought when the Bengals have their top-three wideouts available. In two games missed by Higgins this year, however, the Stanford alum posted 8-60-0 and 2-54-1 lines, respectively. Those are decent numbers, and if you’re in need at the position for Week 11 you could consider Irwin a plug-and-play option off waivers that at least offers some upside. Of course, Baltimore is a tough defense, so there’d be risk as well.

Fade: N/A

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RB Keaton Mitchell

Two games in a row now we’ve seen the explosiveness. In Week 9, Mitchell turned 10 touches into 134 yards and a score. Last Sunday, it was four touches, 66 yards, and a touchdown. The speed is real. The X factor, of course, is opportunity. The rookie should be growing into a larger role, but it’s unclear if he has the all-important trust factor from John Harbaugh that veterans Gus Edwards and Justice Hill possess. As a flex, Mitchell is an interesting lottery ticket.

Fade: WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Like Mitchell, Beckham (knee) has scored in each of the past two games, totaling six catches and 96 yards in that span. He sat out practice with a knee injury, though, and while the TDs are nice, OBJ has two receptions or fewer in four of his last six outings. His history gives him a spotlight, and it may be tempting to think he’s rediscovering his past form but using him Thursday night as more than a risky flex would be a bad move.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 23 ^ Top

Titans @ Jaguars - (Mack)
Line: JAX -6.5
Total: 39.5

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RB Derrick Henry, WR DeAndre Hopkins

To say Derrick Henry has had a roller coaster season would be an understatement. He’s had four games with over 80 yards rushing and two games with under 30 yards rushing. Henry is a back that thrives with high volume, but the Titans’ struggles on offense has limited his opportunities. The team is 24th in rush attempts and 20th in rushing TDs with 5, which Henry has 4 of. Limited rush opportunities plus a struggling offense led by a rookie equals trouble in paradise from a fantasy perspective. Chances are you have no realistic choice outside of Henry, so start him and hope he breaks a long one.

Twenty targets over the past two games for DeAndre Hopkins is not a bad day at the office, but that hasn’t translated into much production. Seven catches on those 20 targets and less than 100 yards combined leaves many fantasy managers reeling. His 3-TD game in Week 8 against Atlanta brought back memories of his time in Houston. But let’s be honest—he may not score three TDs combined for the rest of the season.

Fade: QB Will Levis

At some point, Will Levis may become a viable option in fantasy football. I feel comfortable saying that probably won’t happen this season. But he has shown promising flashes of what he can do and that should have Titan fans excited. Meanwhile, keep him away from your starting lineup.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: RB Travis Etienne

Favorites: WR Christian Kirk

Along with Travis Etienne, Kirk is the only offensive bright spot on this painfully underperforming unit. Kirk continues to be what many thought Calvin Ridley would be: a dangerous go-to receiver who QB Trevor Lawrence could count on. Kirk is coming off one of his best games of the season last week when he put up 104 receiving yards against San Francisco. Kirk is a solid WR2 this week, but don’t count out the ability of Lawrence to make Kirk a second-class fantasy option this week.

On the Fence: TE Evan Engram

The Titans are one of the worst defenses when it comes to defending tight ends. They’ve given up six TDs and have surrendered the most receiving yards to the position. Evan Engram is part of this underperforming offense, but he remains an option for TE-hungry fantasy teams. Start him and hope this passing offense doesn’t go into hibernation once again.

Fade: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Calvin Ridley

Congratulations to the “experts” who have finally placed Trevor Lawrence outside of their top-12 fantasy QB rankings for the week. During the previous six or so weeks, I’d scream at my computer screen and wonder what some saw in continuing to put Lawrence among the QB1’s in fantasy. This guy has been an utter bust this season. Nine TD passes through nine games with THOSE options at WR and that RB in the backfield makes one wonder if Lawrence was nothing more than an overhyped media creation. It’s as painful watching him play as it is Bryce Young, and that’s saying a lot. Keep this dude on your bench if you can.

Perhaps no other receiver has disappointed fantasy managers more this year than Calvin Ridley. Remember the season’s opening game? Remember Week 5 against Buffalo? Those are his top two games this season; most of the others aren’t even worth mentioning. A second or third round pick was probably used to draft Ridley, but his been an inconsistent mess in 2023. He’s gone from a WR1 in fantasy to start the season to a WR 3/flex option. That’s ugly.

Prediction: Jaguars 17, Titans 14 ^ Top

Chargers @ Packers - (Green)
Line: LAC -3.0
Total: 43.5

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Quentin Johnston

With Mike Williams (knee) and Josh Palmer (knee) both on the shelf, Johnston has become more involved. Last Sunday against Detroit, the rookie hauled in all four of his targeted passes for 34 yards and a touchdown. It’s modest production, but it still represents a step in the right direction after he had seven catches through the first six games combined. Things are wide open in terms of utilization after Allen and Ekeler, so rolling the dice on Johnston as your flex/WR3 going up against a banged-up Packers secondary doesn’t sound like a bad move.

Fade: N/A

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones

Favorites: WR Jayden Reed

Coming into the season, the belief was that Christian Watson would be the breakout performer in Green Bay’s receiving corps. That hasn’t happened. Instead, Reed has been emerging as the possible top dog for the Packers. The rookie racked up 84 yards and a touchdown on five receptions in Pittsburgh, and he now leads the club in receiving yardage on the season with 417 yards and is second to Romeo Doubs in touchdowns with four. Nobody gives up more yardage through the air than the Chargers at nearly 300 yards per game, which gives Reed some WR3 potential.

On the Fence: QB Jordan Love

Love hasn’t always played crisp football during his first season as the starter, but he’s looked better the past two weeks, which included a 289-yard, 2-touchdown effort against the Steelers in Week 10 -- yes, he did throw a pair of late INTs, though the second was on a desperation attempt on the game’s final play. Love’s upward trend could continue against LA, which ranks dead last in pass defense (291.2 yards/game) and was just eviscerated by the Lions at home. While there’s ample risk going with Love, his upside is as a top-10 QB this Sunday.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Chargers 24, Packers 20 ^ Top

Giants @ Commanders - (Caron)
Line: WAS -8.5
Total: 38.5

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Saquon Barkley

Barkley is expected to play through an ankle injury that he sustained in the final minutes of the Giants’ blowout loss to the Cowboys. He would be an even stronger fantasy asset this week if the team hadn’t been playing him in meaningless minutes this past week, but the optimist would also argue that New York’s willingness to continue to feed their star running back even in horrible game environments is great for his fantasy floor.

Barkley has touched the ball at least 14 times in every game he’s started this season, including a 24-touch day against this same Washington defense back in Week 7, which led to an excellent fantasy day when he got into the end zone in the passing game. Unfortunately, the Giants’ offense has looked horrendous with Tommy DeVito behind center, so don’t expect a monster performance from anyone in this New York offense, but there’s no question that Barkley remains the focal point of the Giants’ offense and should be a solid RB1 as long as he’s healthy.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: All Giants WRs

A second embarrassing loss to the Cowboys this season meant that the Giants were playing against backups early on this past week. That allowed Tommy DeVito to put together his first career multiple-touchdown game, despite the fact that he threw for just 86 total yards. DeVito himself is unusable for fantasy purposes right now, even in good matchups like the one he faces against the Commanders this week, but his incompetence in passing the ball means that his pass-catching weapons are even less useful than they normally are. The Giants, without Darren Waller, are among the least-talented group of receivers in the league and none of them are worth putting in lineups at the moment.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: QB Sam Howell, RB Brian Robinson Jr.

Washington has been a sneaky fantasy gold mine this season and much of that has been because of quarterback Sam Howell. Howell has now thrown for 290 or more yards in six of his 10 starts, including three-straight, and while he’s also been turning the ball over like crazy, he’s managed to deliver some impressive fantasy numbers. Howell is firmly in the QB1 range right now and it’d be tough to justify benching him even in a relatively tough matchup like the one he faces here in Week 11 against the Giants. New York managed to hold Howell to just 249 yards and no touchdowns through the air when these teams met back in Week 7, but that was also the only bad game on his resume over his past seven games. We’d prefer to play Howell in a game that’s more likely to become a shootout, but there’s still a decent chance that he produces usable fantasy numbers in this one.

Running back Brian Robinson Jr. is coming off of the best pass-catching day of his career this past week, as he caught six passes for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting more of this, as Robinson is not really known to be or utilized as a pass-catching specialist in the Washington offense, but he has been a fairly consistent fantasy back this season who has also been able to deliver a few spike weeks. He was held in check to just 23 rushing yards on eight carries when these teams met back in Week 7, but he was able to get into the end zone in that game and he remains the most-likely player in the Washington offense to score a touchdown on a weekly basis.

On the Fence: WR Terry McLaurin, TE Logan Thomas

While Howell has been an excellent fantasy find this season, the truth is that his pass-catching weapons have often been extremely difficult to predict and very frustrating to manage for fantasy purposes. The only real consistency we’ve seen has been from Terry McLaurin who remains the team’s WR1 despite the fact that he’s only delivered one 20-point fantasy game this season. He has, however, been able to provide double-digit points in seven of his 10 games, making him a solid WR2 for fantasy. He’s been targeted at least eight times in five straight games and should be in line to lead the team in targets again this week.

Veteran tight end Logan Thomas hasn’t really pushed into the elite fantasy TE conversation, but he’s actually been solid enough to be a low-end starter most weeks. He’s seen at least five targets in five of his past six games and while he’s only been able to get into the end zone once over that stretch, it seems likely that the Commanders are going to continue to feed him enough targets to make him a low-end TE1.

Fade: WR Jahan Dotson, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Dyami Brown, RB Antonio Gibson

We’ve seen some big games from Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson this season, but the Commanders’ Week 10 matchup with the Seahawks should remind fantasy managers that there’s really only one trustworthy fantasy receiver in Washington and that is Terry McLaurin. The Commanders threw the ball 44 times in the shootout loss to the Seahawks, but only six of those passes went Samuel’s way while two went toward Dotson. Samuel finished with just six receiving yards on the day while Dotson turned in a blank scorecard for the second time this season. Instead, it was Dyami Brown who scored a touchdown on two catches for 41 yards.

The Washington passing game is just not enough of a target funnel to ever really feel confident about any of these pass catchers, other than McLaurin or Thomas - and even Thomas is really only because he plays such a thin position. Avoid these pass catchers in what could be another low-scoring matchup with the Giants.

Running back Antonio Gibson should also be avoided for fantasy purposes this week. While he’s managed to carve himself out an impressive role in the passing game, catching five passes in each of his past three games, Gibson has still yet to surpass six carries in any game this season. We know from the past that pass-catching specialists like J.D. McKissic have some fantasy value in this Washington offense, but that value is typically much stronger in games that are likely to be a shootout, as the Commanders are then incentivized to pass the ball heavily. With the Giants’ offense being as bad as it is, however, the Commanders will likely not need to lean much on their own passing game, meaning that another low-touch game like the one Gibson turned in against the Giants back in Week 7, is fairly likely.

Prediction: Commanders 20, Giants 13 ^ Top

Raiders @ Dolphins - (Caron)
Line: MIA -14.0
Total: 44.5

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Josh Jacobs

With 53 carries over his past two games, Josh Jacobs remains a weekly must-start in seasonal fantasy leagues. This is, however, a game in which his upside is likely limited, as the Dolphins tend to score a ton of points and that can sometimes lead to some game scripts which simply do not allow opposing offenses to run the ball against them. Nevertheless, Jacobs has touched the ball at least 12 times in every game this season, even in blowout losses, so he should provide enough of a floor to be a solid fantasy RB1 even in this less-than-ideal matchup.

On the Fence: WR Davante Adams

It’s certainly been a rough stretch as of late for the Raiders passing game, which has significantly affected the team’s top pass-catching target Davante Adams. Adams’ target share has remained relatively strong, but he’s averaged under nine PPR fantasy points per game over his past six games.

The Raiders moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo to Aidan O’Connell and while the team has gone 2-0 over that stretch, they’ve also averaged just 181 passing yards in those contests. O’Connell has started three total games for Las Vegas but thrown for just one touchdown pass in those games.

It’s tough to trust anyone in this offense aside from Jacobs right now, but it’s equally tough to imagine that fantasy managers will have multiple better options than Adams, who saw 13 targets this past week against the Jets. The Dolphins are a top-12 opponent for opposing wide receivers and we have to assume that the Raiders will need to pass early and often in order to have a chance to stay competitive in this game, so look for Adams to see plenty of opportunities.

Fade: WR Jakobi Meyers

The Raiders’ passing game struggles have also affected Jakobi Meyers, but it’s worth noting that Meyers has seen a significant drop-off in usage over the past two games, both of which were quarterbacked by Aidan O’Connell. Meyers managed to get into the end zone on a rushing play against the Giants in Week 9 which saved his fantasy day, but he’s caught just four of the seven total passes that have come his way over the past two games. It’s worth noting that neither of these were pass-heavy Raiders offensive scripts, so the total number of targets he’s seeing don’t necessarily reflect how many opportunities he’d have in a game where the Raiders will need to pass more, but there’s a good chance that the Raiders will need to pass a ton this week. Meyers isn’t a must-bench given the potentially high passing game volume in this contest, but we need to be careful given that he is still very clearly the second option in this low-powered aerial attack.

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill

Favorites: WR Jaylen Waddle

The Dolphins are coming off their bye and one of the most positive notes heading into this weekend’s contest is that Jaylen Waddle appears to be healthy. The wide receiver was dealing with a knee injury, but practiced in full on Wednesday and should be a go for this matchup with the Raiders. While Las Vegas has been a difficult matchup for opposing wide receivers this season, those numbers are also a bit skewed as they’ve faced one of the easier opposing passing game schedules including the Steelers (without Diontae Johnson), the Packers, the Patriots, the Bears, the Giants and the Jets.

Waddle’s start to the season was shaky from a usage standpoint as he averaged just five targets per game through his first three contests, but he’s since seen that number rise to nearly nine targets per game over his past five games. The Dolphins are huge road favorites in this one and should be a good bet to score plenty of points, giving the entire offense some nice fantasy upside.

On the Fence: RB Devon Achane, RB Raheem Mostert

Achane has been out since Week 6, but is finally expected to make his return to the lineup here in Week 11. The rookie was looking like one of the league-winners for fantasy prior to his knee injury and while he did hit the IR, reports have since come out that it might have actually been possible for him to play through the injury if he wore a brace, but that the team was being extra cautious with their explosive young tailback.

Assuming he’s back on the field this week, fantasy managers should be expecting that Achane at least returns to a fairly prominent role in the Miami offense right away. He had taken over the role as the team’s “1A” running back prior to the injury and while that may look more like a “1B” role behind Raheem Mostert for now, that could still mean a fairly significant workload and plenty of fantasy points against this bad Raiders run defense.

Miami is a double-digit road favorite and Las Vegas has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this season. This could be another huge game for the Miami rushing attack, especially if they get ahead on the scoreboard early. Both Achane and Mostert are good, albeit a bit risky options given the uncertainty of the backfield touch distribution.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Dolphins 33, Raiders 17 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Texans - (Mack)
Line: HOU -5.5
Total: 47.5

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: TE Trey McBride

Favorites: RB James Conner, Marquise Brown

James Conner returned last week after missing the previous four games and put up respectable numbers. Most encouraging of all is he got 84 percent of the RB carries, so the coaching staff trusts him, and he seems to trust his injured knee. Houston gives up only 3.5 yards per carry, which is 3rd in the league. Conner is not much of a threat in the passing game this season, and his production can be capped because of it. Either way, he’s a good choice as an RB2 this week.

Marquise Brown had the worst game of the season: one catch for 28 yards in Kyler Murray’s return. I wouldn’t let that deter me from starting him this week, however. TE Trey McBride’s emergence should help Brown in the long run, especially with Murray bringing some level of consistency to the offense. View Brown as a low-end WR2 this week.

On the Fence: QB Kyler Murray

Murray is going up against a pass defense that is top-3 in TD passes allowed with 9. He did look good in his first action in a year, as he showed no ill effects in his surgically repaired knee. I’m still not quite ready to label him a “must start” just yet. If he’s on your roster, chances are you had to rely on another signal caller to this point. But if he’s paired with an underperforming QB (Trevor Lawrence?) on your roster, perhaps Murray would get the nod in that scenario. Just don’t be too hasty with your decision in starting him.

Fade: N/A

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

No Brainers: QB C.J. Stroud

Favorites: RB Devin Singletary, WR Tank Dell, TE Dalton Schultz

Devin Singletary appears poised to lead this backfield once again as Dameon Pierce continues to nurse an injured ankle—an injury that has kept him out of practice through Thursday of this week. Singletary rewarded his managers last week by posting a career best in carries (30) and yards 150. This week, he gets to go up against a Houston run defense that in the bottom-4 in the league in rushing yards against and rush TDs allowed. While I try to be cautious with gauging a player’s value after a career game, this week is set up too nicely for Singletary. He should follow up his stellar performance last week with another gem against the Cardinals.

Rookie Tank Dell has 12 catches on 25 targets over the past two games. And with Nico Collins still iffy for this week, Dell should continue being the focal point of this passing game and the No.1 option for Stroud. Dell should get some chances to produce against Arizona’s 28th-ranked defense, so start the rookie with confidence.

Dalton Schultz has a high ceiling for a tight end. While he’s had a few dudes this season—Week 3 at Jacksonville and Week 8 at Carolina, most notably—Schultz has the potential to be the No. 1 tight end during any given week. He has that potential. Schultz is a must-start.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Texans 27, Cardinals 23 ^ Top

Bears @ Lions - (Green)
Line: DET -7.5
Total: 48.5

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: WR D.J. Moore

Update: Khalil Herbert has been activated off the IR.

Favorites: RB Khalil Herbert

Designated to return from the injured list last week, Herbert (ankle) appears to have a good chance to be activated in time to play in Detroit this Sunday. If he does, don’t be surprised to see him step right back into the lead role ahead of D’Onta Foreman (ankle), who is battling an ankle injury of his own. In his last two outings, including the game he got injured in, Herbert had 198 yards and a touchdown. A year ago, the Bears ran for a combined 458 yards in two games against the Lions, so don’t hesitate to try your luck with Herbert and/or Foreman this Sunday.

On the Fence: QB Justin Fields

After four games of Tyson Bagent, Fields (thumb) is set to make his return. Given how strong he was playing before going down -- 617 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT in two games before his thumb injury -- it is tempting to slide him right back into your lineup. His running exploits versus Detroit a year ago (279 yards, 2 TDs) make it doubly so. Before you do, bear in mind that this season’s Lions have been much better against the run (79.1 yards/game; third in the NFL), and their pass rush in a loud Ford Field could be a lot to handle for a potentially rusty Fields. Caveat emptor.

Fade: N/A

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

No Brainers: RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta

Favorites: QB Jared Goff

After passing for more than one TD just once in his first four games, Goff has thrown for two or more scores in three of his last five. That includes this past Sunday when he lit up the Chargers for 333 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The last time Chicago came to Motown, Goff passed for 255 yards to go with 3 TDs in a blowout win. This year’s Bears have stood tall against the run, but they rank 26th versus the pass and are one of two clubs to have allowed at least 20 TD passes. Goff is a solid QB1 here.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: WR Jameson Williams

While Williams is the name listed, this designation can be affixed to any of Detroit’s wideouts not named St. Brown (Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones), as none of them are seeing any separation from one another behind the duo of ASB and LaPorta -- in fairness, DPJ has yet to suit up since being acquired from Cleveland. Of the group, Williams clearly has the upside, but he’s yet to show he’s ready to contribute on a regular basis. Keep him, and the rest, on the bench or waiver wire.

Prediction: Lions 34, Bears 17 ^ Top

Steelers @ Browns - (Green)
Line: CLE -2.0
Total: 34.5

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: WR Diontae Johnson

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RBs Najee Harris / Jaylen Warren

The tandem of Harris (16-82-1) and Warren (15-101-1) found all sorts of room to operate against Green Bay’s passive defense in Week 10, allowing Pittsburgh to run the physical offense the franchise is historically known for. Cleveland is a much tougher group, as evidenced by the Week 2 encounter when that duo combined for 53 yards on 16 carries -- though Warren did add 66 yards as a receiver. Despite that, with the Browns likely to struggle on offense, the Steelers could choose to stick with a ground-based approach to limit mistakes. Both could be used as RB3s.

Fade: WR George Pickens

After managing just three receptions for 45 yards in Week 10, Pickens has now logged a combined six catches, 66 yards, and 1 TD over his last three games. The reasons have been different each week -- against the Packers it was the running game’s success that moved Kenny Pickett and company onto the back burner -- but the results continue to be disappointing. While he posted a 4-127-1 versus Cleveland back in Week 2, the loss of Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is likely to make the Steelers more cautions this Sunday. Maybe you can talk yourself into Pickens as a risky WR3, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: RB Jerome Ford, WR Amari Cooper

Favorites: TE David Njoku

Following the news that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start in Week 11, there are questions aplenty about what Cleveland’s offense will look like. First off, don’t put too much stock in DTR’s previous start as it came on short notice. He’ll have the full week to prepare this time, and clearly the team sees something in him since they’re going with the rookie over P.J. Walker, who went 2-1 as a starter. So, what does all that have to do with Njoku? Tight ends are frequently checkdown targets for young QBs, and Njoku has played well recently, topping 50 yards in three of his last four games. He looks like a possible top-10 play.

On the Fence: RB Kareem Hunt

Hunt has collected double-digit carries in each of the last five games. He’s turned that usage into 203 yards and is averaging an unsightly 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Despite that, the veteran’s fantasy profile has been raised because he has six TDs in that stretch, including at least one in each game. While plugging Hunt into your lineup seems like a viable option, especially as a flex, just realize that his path to value is narrow and based primarily on his ability to get the ball into the end zone. With the Steelers likely to load up to stop the run, that might be tougher than usual in Week 11.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Steelers 18, Browns 13 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Panthers - (Mack)
Line: DAL -10.5
Total: 42.5

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorites: RB Tony Pollard, TE Jake Ferguson

Tony Pollard started the season delivering solid numbers, but he hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards since his season-high 122 in Week 3. But here come the Panthers and their 26th-ranked defense in rushing yards allowed. Carolina has also given up the most rushing TDs so far this year with 15. This game could get ugly quick, putting more emphasis on the run game and providing Pollard with ample opportunity to shine. He’s a solid RB1 this week.

Jake Ferguson leads the entire league in red zone targets with 21. That’s gold for a tight end and makes him a must start each week, regardless of the opponent. He’s on a hot streak too. Ferguson has scored in three-straight games and could make it four after this week. Consistent play from tight ends is usually the exception in fantasy, not the rule. So, if you have someone like Ferguson on your team, there isn’t much debate to be had. He’s a plug-and-play option now.

On the Fence: WR Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is coming off the second-best game in his career in terms of receiving yards. His 173 yards on 9 catches—to go along with a receiving TD—placed him as a WR1 last week. He’s too inconsistent, though, to be considered an every-week starter. Cooks has already had four games this season with 2 or fewer catches—not someone you feel comfortable relying on. The passing game probably won’t be in play the entire 60 minutes for Dallas since most expect the Cowboys to blow this one wide open at some in the game. I’d caution against using Cooks this week.

Fade: N/A

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Adam Thielen

Thielen is the only player worth seriously considering in this offense. He has had a resurgence of sorts during his age-33 season. He opened the season with 100-yard performances in three of the first six games, but Thielen has fallen off over the last three—averaging 47 receiving yards per game. Dallas presents a difficult challenge, but Carolina should be forced to play catch-up in this contest, making it possible for Thielen to gather garbage-time points. But hey, garbage-time points just the same as points in the first quarter. Thielen can be a good WR2 this week.

On the Fence: RB Chuba Hubbard

Chuba Hubbard hasn’t rushed for more than 88 yards this season, and he’s not much of a threat in the passing game. That makes him a flex at best most weeks. This week should be considered “most weeks.” Carolina will have to take to the air to keep up with the red-hot Dallas offense, which renders Hubbard bench fodder this week. Proceed accordingly.

Fade: QB Bryce Young

It is utterly painful watching Bryce Young play QB in the NFL. This guy looks completely out of his element. I’m not going to go as far as to say he’s a bust. That’s ridiculous to say at this point. The only reason why some utter that statement is the play of C.J. Stroud. It’s obvious to anyone that Stroud has not only outplayed his fellow rookie, but Stroud is one of the best QBs so far this season. That’s the measuring stick used against Young. That said, Young has a lot of maturing to do relative to his game. For his sake, I hope it comes next year because 2023 is a lost cause for him and this offense.

Prediction: Cowboys 38, Panthers 16 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ 49ers - (Fessel)
Line: SF -13.5
Total: 41.5

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: WR Mike Evans

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Chris Godwin, RB Rachaad White

There were a lot of concerns for Evans’ value coming into the season, but quarterback Baker Mayfield has always struggled with smaller catch-and-go receivers, and so the disappointing season that Chris Godwin has had isn’t as surprising as it may seem. Still, Godwin has done enough (9.1 FPts/G) to warrant consideration versus a 49ers team whose one defensive weakness is the lack of lock-down corners in the secondary. Wide receivers are having a good time of it against San Francisco – 11th most points against – and that makes Godwin look like a decent option at flex this week, even if not the most exciting one.

Rachaad White, meanwhile, has been heating up lately – 17.5 FPts/G over the last month - and in his second year has become the major figure in the passing game that he was projected to be (35 receptions and 9.3 yards per reception). Yet the 49ers have given up just the 25th most points against running backs this season. White could still find his way to double figure points on the basis that the Buccaneers play much of this game from behind with Mayfield attempting to survive Nick Bosa, Chase Young and company. That makes him a borderline start this week.

Fade: QB Baker Mayfield

Tom Brady saw a statistical resurgence in 2020 after finding himself throwing to a very strong Tampa offensive unit led by Mike Evans – a unit that saw Jameis Winston throw for lead leaguing 5100 yards the year before, and Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combine for nearly 5400 yards passing the year before that. Baker Mayfield is keeping the trend, as he is nearing his peak numbers. Those numbers are not special, they’re not exciting and in terms of fantasy football they only add up to a No.17 ranking, but it has allowed for a number of usable starts from Baker this year. This week does not look to be one of those weeks.

The 49ers dominant pass rush is likely to take great advantage of Mayfield’s slow processing time, as well as his lack of stature in the pocket. The Niners have been brutal to opposing QB’s, as it is, giving up just 10 touchdowns against 13 INTs. Mayfield is reasonably a must sit.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: TE George Kittle

Favorites: QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey

Brock Purdy continues to put up QB1-level numbers whenever the 49ers All Pro offensive unit is intact, and that’s likely to continue this week. The Bucs have given up 17 combined touchdowns to opposing QBs and the 5th most points. This is a must start, unless you have an elite QB in front of Purdy.

Christian McCaffrey is generally a no-brainer, but out of a respect for a Buccaneers defense that has been has given up the 2nd least points to running backs this year and just held Derrick Henry to 2.5 points, McCaffrey finds himself here instead. He’s still a must start, as there’s just so many ways for him to get to a solid fantasy day, but it may be tough for him to do it by racking up efficient run totals, or by restarting his TD streak. Per the latter, the Bucs have given up just 1 total touchdown to running backs this season.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: RB Elijah Mitchell, RB Jordan Mason

Mitchell has been virtually completely absent from the 49ers game plan this season, even as a change of pace option. It may be that repeated injuries have taken their toll on Mitchell, who has just 73 yards on 30 carries, this season. For a few weeks, Jordan Mason passed Mitchell on the depth chart, but more recently Mitchell has regained a foothold on the 2nd spot behind McCaffrey, and last week logged 8 carries (his 2nd highest total of the season). It’s very possible that the 49ers run away with this game against the Bucs, and turn to Mitchell to run out the clock, but Tampa’s extremely stiff run defense is unlikely to reward him with many fantasy points as a result.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 17 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Rams - (Fessel)
Line: LAR -2.0
Total: 46.5

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

No Brainers: RB Kenneth Walker

Favorites: WR DK Metcalf

The Rams have been somewhat tough on wide receivers – having given up the 11th fewest points to the position. But numerous WR1’s have had their way with the Rams secondary. CeeDee Lamb went off for 35 points against the Rams in Week 8, and that was the 3rd time this season that an opposing WR1 has cashed in for at least 16 points against the Rams. Metcalf also had 12.2 points against these Rams on the opening week of the season. There’s very high ceiling upside here, making Metcalf a quality start as a WR2.

On the Fence: QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith is coming off of a season high 369-yard passing performance. The Seahawks passing attack finally looked capable of what was expected prior to the season. Getting members of an injury-plagued offensive line back onto the field and having both Metcalf and Lockett looking healthier certainly helped, but so did playing Washington.

The Rams are not rough on quarterbacks, but they aren’t a doormat, either. Smith could see a good follow up to last week’s performance, especially by frequently targeting his myriad of tight ends to take advantage of the Rams weak linebacker core, but it still remains to be seen whether last week was a stepping stone or whether it was just another parade for a Commander’s opposing QB. As such, Geno is worth considering for as a starter if you don’t have any strong options this week, but should be viewed as a mid-to-high end QB2.

Fade: WR Tyler Lockett, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The Rams erased Lockett in the first matchup with Seattle, holding him to 2 catches for 10 yards. This could be viewed as an aberration, except the Rams have made their money against WR2’s this season, giving up just three double-digit performances to their opponents 2nd receiver and no 20+ point outcomes. The floor has also been really low, as in addition to Lockett, DeVonta Smith was held to just 1.1 points by these Rams and Tee Higgins was held to 3.1 despite 5 and 8 targets, respectively.

The sour cherry on top is that Lockett has essentially been an every other week receiver this year, following strong performances with quiet ones on all three occasions. Lockett is coming off a strong performance (8-92-1), and facing the Rams he’s ripe for another quiet follow up.

As for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the news is tougher. The Rams haven’t surrendered a single double digit fantasy performance to any WR3 or 4 this year. As a matter of fact, Tyler Boyd’s 6.4 points in Week 3 is the highest point total any opposing WR3 has put up against L.A. (Dontayvion Wicks collected 6.9 as a WR4 during Week 9). Smith-Njigba has continued to show signs of growth in the offense and has put up just over 10 FPts/G over the last month, but this is likely a step-back week for him, in terms of fantasy production.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Cooper Kupp, RB Darrell Henderson

You have to start the Rams go-to wideout, but it’s a decision that comes with the awareness that (a) QB Matthew Stafford may or may not be fully healthy, (b) Cooper Kupp hasn’t done much in Stafford’s absence this year, and (c) the Seahawks secondary has been stiffening (most recently, just 5.3 points for McLaurin and 0 for Jahan Dotson). The ceiling is obviously unbeatable, but Kupp – a model of consistency – has suddenly become as volatile a WR1 start as you can have with the conditions being what they are.

Darrell Henderson has only mustered up 2.8 yards per rush in three games since stepping into the backfield following Kyren Williams injury, but he has seen at least 10 rushes in all three games, has been targeted multiple times each outing, and is facing a Seahawks team that has been very vulnerable against running backs (5th most points against). He’s averaged deep flex production through his previous starts (9.2 points per game), but stands as more of a solid flex option against the Hawks.

On the Fence: WR Puka Nacua, RB Royce Freeman

Nacua was Cooper Kupp in the absence of the Rams All Pro WR, and furnished himself a solid role even in Kupp’s return. Yet, like Kupp, injuries to Stafford have smothered his embers, and it remains to be seen whether that fire reignites this week.

Freeman has been a bit more efficient as a runner than Henderson over the last three games, picking up 4.3 yards per carry during that time. Yet he hasn’t caught a single pass and has only been targeted once in total, limiting his upside. He’s been seeing 11 carries a game and so he carries some deep flex value in a plus match up, but probably not more than that.

Fade: TE Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee hasn’t had much to say this season, with or without Stafford. He’s posted no double figure scoring performances, hasn’t reached the end zone, and is averaging just 4.6 fantasy points per game. That’s not likely to change against a Seattle defense that has given up just 1 touchdown to tight ends this year.

Prediction: Seahawks 21, Rams 19 ^ Top

Jets @ Bills - (Caron)
Line: BUF -8.0
Total: 39.5

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson

The Jets’ offense is one of the most putrid that we’ve seen in recent seasons, but running back Breece Hall is such a special talent that he’s managed to remain a must-start fantasy option even despite the lack of talent around him. Hall has carried the ball at least 12 times in every game since being officially anointed as the team’s “starter” back in Week 5, but even prior to that he was breaking off big plays both in the running and passing game, including against this very same Buffalo defense back in Week 1. Hall rushed the ball 10 times for 127 yards in that opening contest, adding a 20-yard reception in the passing game, and now he’s in line to see even more work. He should be viewed as a solid RB1 this week.

Zach Wilson has been terrible, but the one positive thing that we’ve been able to count on him doing is providing opportunities for superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Despite this bad offensive situation, Wilson has averaged over 12 targets per game over his past six games. Wilson may not have the touchdown opportunities that other top receivers do, but he did score against this Bills defense back in Week 1 and his volume makes him a must-start.

On the Fence: TE Tyler Conklin

The number of usable fantasy tight ends seems to be growing as we’ve reached the second half of the regular season and one of the players who’s come alive in recent weeks is Jets’ tight end Tyler Conklin. Conklin has seen 13 targets over his past two contests, catching every one of them for a total of 136 yards over that stretch. While he’s failed to reach the end zone, he’s seemingly become Zach Wilson’s second-most-trusted pass-catching weapon and could be considered a low-end TE1 for those in need.

Fade: QB Zach Wilson

The Jets’ offense as a whole is completely embarrassing and much of that is due to quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson might not have started back in Week 1, but he came into the game almost immediately when the Jets faced the Bills and despite managing to get the win, Wilson was otherwise pretty bad in that game. That trend has pretty much continued since then and he’s now averaging just 207 passing yards per game while having thrown just five touchdown passes in nine games. He has provided a bit in the running game, but Wilson remains one of the absolute worst starting quarterbacks both in fantasy and in the real-life NFL.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen

Favorites: WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dalton Kincaid

Monday night’s home loss to the Broncos was a new low for the Bills this season, with quarterback Josh struggling against a defense that had been one of the easiest to exploit so far this season. That led to the worst performance of the season for wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who managed to catch just three passes for 34 yards in the loss. This being a primetime game meant that many fantasy managers saw the poor performance and are, understandably, concerned about their superstar wide receiver. Fear not, though, as this one game was more likely to be a blip on the radar than any sort of indication of future performance. Diggs has been his usually studly self this season, both from an opportunity and production standpoint. He even dominated in Week 1 when he faced this very same Jets defense, as he caught 10 of the 13 passes that came his way for 102 yards and a touchdown. Don’t get cute and bench Diggs after one bad performance. Get over it and move on.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid has broken out over the past few weeks. His first big game came back in Week 7, but he’s now played on at least 85 percent of the Bills’ offensive snaps over their past three games, leading to 20 receptions on 24 targets. Kincaid has become an every-week must-start at the tight end position and while the Jets are a great defense overall, they’re only a middle-of-the-road unit against opposing tight ends.

On the Fence: RB James Cook

James Cook’s early fumble in Week 10 led to an early lead for the Broncos and the Bills’ coaching staff seemed to punish him throughout the game. He saw his lowest snap percentage in a game since all the way back in Week 3, playing fewer than 50 percent of the Bills’ offensive plays despite them trailing throughout the evening. He did break through with a huge rush down the stretch which allowed him to reach the 100-yard mark for just the second time this season, but he actually fumbled (and recovered) on the play which had to annoy his coaches even more.

The truth is that Cook doesn’t have a history of being a fumbler throughout his professional or collegiate career, but these mistakes can sometimes come in patches and there’s no question that the coaching staff will be keeping a close eye on how he’s handling the ball. This matchup against the Jets isn’t a great one to begin with, but it becomes even riskier when we consider that Cook has continued to concede goal line carries to Latavius Murray and could potentially find himself riding the pine if he loses another ball.

Fade: WR Gabriel Davis, RB Latavius Murray

The Gabe Davis rollercoaster continued this past week as the big play specialist managed to secure two passes for 56 yards, including a 38-yard reception. He actually led the team in receiving yardage for the day despite this low reception total, but it wasn’t nearly enough to make him a usable fantasy option. Davis has now been held below double-digit PPR fantasy points in four of his past five games, having not exceeded six targets in any of those games. He also was held to just two catches for 32 yards when he faced the Jets back in Week 1. We know that Davis is capable of exploding for a big play and getting into the end zone at any time, but this is just not a good on-paper matchup for him.

Veteran running back Latavius Murray hadn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 2, but he had his best fantasy game of the 2023 season this past week when he scored a touchdown and rushed for 68 yards on nine carries. Murray played on a season-high 50 percent of the Bills’ offensive snaps while also carrying the ball on 36 percent of the team’s rushing plays, which was his second-best opportunity share day of the season. Of course, we don’t know how things would have played out if starter James Cook wouldn’t have fumbled the ball on the team’s first offensive drive, but we have to assume that, based on how things had been trending, that Murray is still essentially a touchdown-or-bust fantasy player. The Jets have only given up three running back rushing touchdowns this season, so don’t bet on Murray to have back-to-back big fantasy days.

Prediction: Bills 20, Jets 13 ^ Top

Vikings @ Broncos - (Fessel)
Line: DEN -2.5
Total: 41.5

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: T.J. Hockenson

Favorites: RB Alexander Mattison (concussion)

Alexander Mattison was a limited participant on Thursday, and if he can be activated for this weekend’s match up with the Broncos, he’ll be facing the league’s most gashed rush defense. Right now, the Broncos rush defense is every running back’s dream, and with Cam Akers unfortunately suffering another season-ending injury, the lane is wide open for Mattison to regain full control of the Vikings running back room. Despite an underwhelming, frustrating season from Mattison to-date, if he can get active by Sunday, those who’ve held him may finally enjoy a substantial pay off. If he is Inactive, expect to see Ty Chandler get the bulk of the carries.

On the Fence: WR Jordan Addison

Wide receivers got off to a surprisingly strong start against the Broncos, but that has changed as the season has gone on (18th most points to the position). The stellar rookie may be outmatched by the more experienced Patrick Surtain II, finding the Broncos elite corner lined up opposite him often. Volume could get Addison through the day, especially with Justin Jefferson appearing to still be at least one week away from returning and T.J. Hockenson playing banged up (ribs). But it will not be an easy task, and in a game where the Vikings and Broncos could opt to grind it out, even volume is not a lock. Addison is a very risky play this week.

Fade: QB Joshua Dobbs

Dobbs has earned the excitement coming his way since he’s arrived on the Vikings just a couple of weeks ago. On the whole, he’s certainly outdone expectations for both Minnesota and his previous team, the Cardinals. But with Justin Jefferson likely out and the Broncos entertaining Dobbs and company, he’s probably best to sit this week.

You might say “but the Broncos have given up the 8th most points to quarterbacks”. That’s true, but the defense appears to have turned a leaf and returned to its old form of being stingy against the passing game. Most recently, Patrick Mahomes picked up just 25.9 combined points in two starts against the Broncos, and last week Denver made it a nightmarish day for Josh Allen (just 14.4 points). Dobbs has been a good story, but he is not on the level of Mahomes nor Allen, both of whom have been muted by Denver’s defensive revival.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton ranks No.20 among wide receivers in points per game (11.8) and he now has 7 touchdowns on the season. He draws a Vikings secondary that hasn’t had a ton of answers for receivers, giving up the 8th most points to the position. Sutton is in a good spot to continue WR2 production this week.

On the Fence: QB Russell Wilson, RB Javonte Williams

Wilson has definitely made some strides with Sean Payton this year, but Payton sees him as a game manager (just 29 pass attempts per game, 6.8 intended air yards per target). This has left Wilson in QB2 territory, albeit on the higher end.

Wilson draws a Vikings defense that has been middling against quarterbacks, and perhaps their biggest weakness has been against quarterback’s legs (200 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns allowed). Wilson has nearly matched his rushing total of last season, so he may be still have enough in his legs to take advantage of this vulnerability. Still, the Broncos offensive strategy limits his upside, and he’s once again best used as a starter for those without a viable alternative.

Meanwhile, Javonte Williams has now seen over 20 rushes and picked up a receiving touchdown in each of the last two weeks. It appears that the Broncos may finally be turning to him as a workhorse.

The challenge this week will be a Vikings defense that has given up the 6th least points to running backs. The only two running backs that have had RB1-type performances against the Vikings both ran behind dominant blocking units (Swift of the Eagles and McCaffrey of the 49ers). Most other units have been pushed around by the Vikings front, and the Broncos are likely to experience that this week, making Javonte better viewed as a flex option.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Broncos 19, Vikings 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Chiefs - (Fessel)
Line: KC -2.5
Total: 45.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown

Favorites: WR DeVonta Smith

Smith is an incredible route runner with fine hands, but he comes in to Week 11 at 28th among wide receivers in fantasy points per game. This is despite the fact that he has 4 TDs through nine games (career high, thus far, is 7 for a season). But Dallas Goedert is expected to miss some time after undergoing forearm surgery, and that opens up a fair amount of targets (52, to-date). Expect some of those targets to go Smith’s way, as his ranking among WR’s has everything to do with Eagles not having needed more from him prior to now. The Chiefs are not easy on wideouts (24th most points), but Smith has more than enough talent to work out a productive day against a good-but-not-great secondary in a situation where talent meets opportunity.

On the Fence: RB D’Andre Swift

Swift’s snap count remains strong (65% and 70% the last two weeks), so despite three low efficiency games in the last month and not having reached a hundred yards rushing since his huge back-to-back games in Week 2 and 3, this designation isn’t based on any concern that he might be losing grip on his role. More so, it has to do with the fact that Swift is already getting close to his previous career high in touches (207, 165 this season) and is facing a Chiefs team that has been tough on the run, having allowed just the 22nd most points to backs.

Swift also continues to be victimized most especially by Dr. Tush Push, Jalen Hurts in the red zone. That limits his ceiling most weeks and he’s probably no more than a flex in this match up, especially on the road.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce

Favorites: WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice picked up his 4th touchdown in the Chief’s last game (vs Miami), and continues to be the only Kansas City wide receiver that Pat Mahomes is relying on in the red zone. Enter the Eagles, who have been scorched by receivers, giving up what has easily been the most points to the position of any team. Safety help has been a big issue, and Rice’s vertical ability and solid frame (6’1 204) command that help. This is a very sweet spot for the very respectable rookie.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco is a worthy start just about every week, but facing the league’s stiffest defense against running backs put’s him on the shelf this week. The Eagles have only allowed three running backs to produce double figure points this season, and just one to land RB1 value for the day. With just 482 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns allowed to the position, it’s looking to be a very tough day for Pacheco.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Eagles 20 ^ Top