As I enter my ninth year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings.
With that said, I'm changing things up
a bit this year. While I will continue to play the NFL.com
Playoff Challenge and in Fuzzy's
Fantasy Football's postseason money leagues, I recognize there
are plenty of other formats out there. It occurred to me in the
last week I could actually do more by doing less, killing two
birds with one stone with my first submission while also sticking
with the week-by-week projections for those of us competing in
DFS or a pick-your-studs league. Regardless of which format(s)
you choose to play in, my goal over the next four articles will
be to help each of you through your decision-making process as
you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com Playoff Challenge/Multi-Week
Leagues
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules & Prizing”
link on the NFL.com
entry page. Much of the content immediately below is included
on the “How to Play” page, although the information
I provide below should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Drew Brees in the Wild Card round and
the Packers win, you can carry him over to the Divisional Round,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points and, if the
Saints make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card round, but
be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional round, since the
player was on the team’s roster for two weekly scoring periods.
Further bonus point modifiers would also apply as long as that
player’s team continues to advance in the NFL Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs are worth
four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here than
in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) all
field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which means
we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers); 3) this is a non-PPR
format, which obviously favors the big-play threats (both Fuzzy's
and DraftKings are PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points,
so picking a “winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown
prior to factoring in the modifiers.
Let's get the No. 1 rule of this game out of the way right now:
if you have a good feeling about which
two teams will meet in the Super Bowl, build your lineup exclusively
from players from those two teams. Most previous playoff
challenge champions' lineups are made up entirely of Super Bowl
participants. (In other words, it is important to project the
Super Bowl entrants first and figure out what players from those
teams to use second.) The multipliers are everything in this contest,
so playing the week-to-week matchups are nearly meaningless. Think
about it this way: if I told you that your regular-season fantasy
team's scoring would double in Week 2, triple in Week 3 and quadruple
in Week 4 if you simply left it the same, would it affect your
draft strategy? Of course it would. The big week your team might
post in the first week of this challenge - in the somewhat unlikely
event you played the matchups perfectly - is going to seem rather
insignificant in early February when every passing touchdown is
worth 16 points, every other TD is worth 24 and the top teams
in this competition are scoring 200-300 (or perhaps more) points
per week.
As noted earlier, the main challenges are (in order): 1) correctly
predicting the two conference winners and 2) forecasting the best
fantasy players in that hypothetical Super Bowl matchup. Given
how I wrapped up the previous paragraph, I've chosen to do one
and only one Playoff Challenge write-up this postseason, as I
have reached the conclusion that any alterations I make to my
lineup in the third and fourth weeks would be in response to a
wrong pick on my part, and my analysis of a 1x or 2x player isn't
going to matter very much. Much like in daily fantasy, the chalk
plays probably aren’t going to win. (Of the hundreds of
thousands of entries NFL.com receives, how many do you think are
going to line up their fantasy squads exclusively with Tom Brady
or Ben Roethlisberger just because they are the "best"
fantasy quarterbacks?) In other words,
be bold! It's a free contest after all, so crashing and
burning - even if it is in front of an audience like what I'm
doing - isn't such a bad thing when you consider the reward is
much greater than the risk involved.
Below you will find the 12 playoff teams ranked in order of the
(percentage) odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl.
I'll spend a bit of time after that attempting to nail the bracket
before moving talking a little DFS.
1. Minnesota (40%)
2. New England (40%)
3. LA Rams (30%)
4. Pittsburgh (25%)
5. New Orleans (20%)
6. Kansas City (20%)
7. Jacksonville (13%)
8. Philadelphia (5%)
9. Carolina (3%)
10. Atlanta (2%)
11. Tennessee (1%)
12. Buffalo (1%)
With that out of the way, let's next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Jaguars over Bills,
Chiefs over Titans NFC - Wildcard: Saints over Panthers,
Rams over Falcons
AFC - Divisional: Patriots over
Chiefs, Steelers over Jaguars NFC - Divisional: Saints over Eagles,
Vikings over Rams
AFC - Conference Championship:
Patriots over Steelers NFC - Conference Championship: Vikings
over Saints
Super Bowl: Patriots vs. Vikings
Case Keenum at QB: It might make you cringe
but winning a large field tournament will require some risk
taking.
The rankings below are for those readers in similar leagues that
require you to draft players this week and keep them for the duration
of the postseason. The number inside the parentheses refers to
how many games I expect that player/unit to play.
There is absolutely no reason to go crazy over quarterbacks in
multi-week playoff leagues this year. All three quarterbacks I
expect to play three games are attached to offenses with either
high-end running backs or a significant commitment to the running
game. Even though I still have significant doubts about Keenum,
it would not surprise me if ends up being the highest scoring
signal-caller of the bunch. In all likelihood, he will be my choice
to be my Playoff Challenge quarterback, in part to be contrarian,
in part because he has the best set of receivers and in part because
he should get to play all of his games in perfect conditions and
at home. I also think there is a very distinct chance chaos will
rule the day in the AFC. The Patriots are far from a powerhouse,
the Steelers are showing significant cracks on defense and both
of those teams lost home games by double figures to the teams
I have advancing to the divisional round. About the only thing
that would surprise me in the AFC is if the Bills or Titans make
it past the first round.
If my predictions above prove to be correct, Brees will have
to play from behind in at least one game, giving him a slight
edge in my mind over Brady, who hasn't been the same quarterback
since he first appeared on the injury report due to an Achilles'
injury. The Patriots have also skewed more run-heavy over that
same time, and there's no telling if Chris Hogan will be able
to get back to speed at any point in January. If I thought the
Steelers could win in Foxboro - I'm obviously not exactly feeling
good about their chances of beating the Jaguars in Pittsburgh
either - then Big Ben would probably be the top option on my board.
Of the remaining teams, the best dark-horse candidates to play
four games - obviously making them attractive to owners in the
Playoff Challenge and total points leagues - are Smith and Goff.
In the end, it's hard to take Smith seriously as a strong start
in playoff leagues when he has yet to show he can put a team on
his back in a win-or-go-home scenario. Despite making significant
strides as the regular season came to a close, the Chiefs' defense
scares me as well. (Their late-season surge came entirely at home.)
As for Goff, I don't think the Rams have enough to win in Minnesota,
pure and simple. Perhaps a heavier emphasis on Todd Gurley will
yield different results than the Rams' 24-7 road loss to the Vikings
in Week 11, but the fact of the matter is I believe Minnesota
is just a more complete team at this moment in time.
The combination of talent and volume would seem to make Gurley
and Bell obvious picks here, even if they play one less game than
each of the players listed behind them in Tier 1. It's not hard
for me to imagine New Orleans upsetting Minnesota in the NFC title
game, but their path to a Super Bowl is treacherous for running
backs - even for a rushing attack is good as the one the Saints
possess. Regardless, if I thought New Orleans could pull off the
upset in Minnesota, I would stack Kamara and Ingram without hesitation.
Latavius Murray does not belong in the first group from a talent
perspective, but given the fact he is seeing significant volume
and getting goal-line work for the team I believe has the best
chance of making the Super Bowl, he is worth rolling the dice
in the Playoff Challenge (in hopes he can hit the 4x multiplier).
Because he has more favorable odds to play three games than perhaps
any other running back in the field, he is worth drafting high.
After considering the likelihood the Steelers will face the Jaguars
and likely the Pats if they advance, I decided to lower Bell from
No. 2 to No. 4. The risk of him being one-and-done is a factor,
and the wear and tear of 400-plus touches figures to come into
play at some point - even with two weeks off.
As usual, gambling on a New England running back is risky business.
That is especially the case this year, as Burkhead could return
at any time to steal touches from Lewis. With that said, Lewis
was doing pretty well for himself on fewer touches before Burkhead's
injury, so he feels like a safer option. If I could convince myself
to give Hunt one more game, he would sneak right past Latavius Murray on this list. Alas, Tennessee is not a great first matchup
for Hunt, and I suspect the Patriots will have more success in
containing the rookie than they did in Week 1. I'm not exactly
feeling great about putting Fournette so high, but he's probably
as good of a bet to score this weekend as any running back and
the Bills are a great matchup. If the Jags can find the form they
had for most of the season after beating Buffalo, he could easily
play three or four games, as Jacksonville's defense figures to
match up well with New England and Pittsburgh.
The only other running back I'll discuss here is McCoy. It's
hard to imagine he was going to fare well against the Jaguars
even before suffering an ankle injury severe enough that he needed
to be carted off last week. Trying to carry the Bills' offense
at less than 100 percent with virtually no practice time is an
even taller order. If he makes a miraculous recovery and you believe
Buffalo upsets Jacksonville, he belongs as high as No. 8.
While the reports of Brown's recovery have been positive up to
this point, there hasn't been any definitive word as to whether
or not he will be ready to go for the Divisional Round or how
healthy he will be if he can play. As a result, I'll take Thomas
and the possibility of him playing four games over a less-than-100
percent Brown playing in two games, one of which should come against
the Jaguars. Since Thielen and Diggs are fighting each other for
targets on one of the more balanced offenses is in the league,
they fall behind the top two options.
Cooks is probably the best bet of the top five receivers to play
three games and finished out the season on a fairly strong note,
but his sporadic involvement makes him difficult to play over
the top four. It would not be a surprise me to see Hill have a
field day against the vulnerable Titans' secondary, although it
seems like the Steelers - Kansas City's likely second-round opponent
- has a strong grasp of what it takes to shut down the Chiefs'
offense, which means Hill may only be able to deliver one big
game. Smith-Schuster could vault as high as No. 5 on this list
if Brown is ruled out for the Divisional Round, but I don't expect
that to happen. Like Hill, Woods is positioned nicely to have
a solid first-round outing, but I find it difficult to believe
he'll do the same against the Vikings.
In a very short time, Cole appears to have taken a firm grasp
of top receiver duties in Jacksonville. With Lee still trying
to make it back from a high ankle sprain and Westbrook running
lower-percentage routes, the smart money is on Cole among Jacksonville
receivers in PPR scoring. Hogan's health seems to be a complete
mystery, but he gets the nod here over the others in Tier 3 because
of the likelihood he'll be closer to 100 percent in another two
weeks. Owners need only look back to the first half of this season
or last year's run in the playoffs to recall what he can do when
he is right. Most of the rest of Tier 3 and Tier 4 are hit-or-miss
propositions, although Amendola routinely seems to come up big
at least in at least one game during the postseason.
Gronkowski is losing ground to Kelce in terms of his superiority
at the position, but Gronk should play at least one more game,
leaving Gronk as the slight favorite here. Kelce is a nice consolation
prize, and the two of them are far and away the best options in
any kind of postseason fantasy football setup at tight end. I'm
expecting Rudolph to play a more impactful role in the postseason
with an extra week to heal his ailing ankle. He gets the nod over
Ertz, who remained a key part of the offense even with the change
from Carson Wentz to Foles, due to the likelihood of playing two
more games. Walker has remained remarkably consistent considering
how dreadful Tennessee has been on offense for large parts of
the season. However, I feel as though he has next to no chance
of playing more than one game, whereas I'm open to the possibility
that Philadelphia's defense could carry the Eagles past their
first game.
Olsen has been piling up the targets lately (27 over the last
three weeks), but he and Newton have not been on the same page
over that same time (12 catches, nine in one game). Anyone who
believes they know exactly what they're getting from Olsen this
weekend is either clairvoyant or certifiably crazy. If there is
a tight end capable of vastly outperforming his ranking this postseason,
my money would be on McDonald. Roethlisberger recently raved about
the former 49er, who is starting to take on a bigger role in this
offense now that he is finally healthy and has had a few months
to digest the playbook. With that said, James seems remains the
favorite among Pittsburgh tight ends to score a red zone touchdown.
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to essentially combine
the two again this postseason.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by their projected point total in that format (DraftKings
and then Fuzzy's). Because I went into some detail above, I won't
spend a great deal of time explaining each projection here - only
some of the more notable ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings'
projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
Remember what I said earlier about not going crazy over quarterbacks?
For the first time in all of my years of playing playoff fantasy
football with Fuzzy's, I cannot remember ever considering a non-quarterback
for my tiebreaker spot. I'm not so taken with Smith that I'll use
him in every lineup, and I don't think Newton has his usual amount
of upside. I feel as if the Rams will be able to control game flow
against the Falcons, leaving Goff in a position to hand off to Gurley
a lot in the second half. The same case could be made for Brees
with Ingram and Kamara. Mariota has topped 20 fantasy points three
times in leagues that award six points for all touchdowns, topping
out at 23.7 in Week 3. I'm not betting he'll improve on that ceiling
in Kansas City. Buffalo is much better against the pass than it
is against the run, making Bortles a dicey option who may not need
to throw much in the second half. The Jaguars and Rams have been
among the stingiest defenses against quarterbacks all season long,
so I'm not rolling the dice on Taylor (likely without a healthy
McCoy in the backfield) or Ryan.
As if you can't already tell by my earlier comments about the quarterbacks,
this is a week to pay up at running back in DFS. The Falcons have
been reasonably stout against running backs for the better part
of the season, but matchups don't seem to matter much for Gurley
anymore. Kamara is dicey in the No. 2 hole above given he should
expect to see half as many touches as Hunt, but HC Sean Payton schemes
the rookie in space so well that he doesn't need a ton of volume.
Like Atlanta, Tennessee typically does a good job of stuffing the
run. However, the Chiefs' recent commitment to feeding Hunt has
been a big part of their resurgence, so if Kansas City is able to
play with the lead as it typically does, Hunt belongs in most DFS
and pick-your-studs formats. I keep waiting for Carolina to take
the cap of McCaffrey's involvement in the running game, and the
playoffs seem as good of a time as any to do it, especially if Stewart
is limited in any way. Last week was a prime example of what happens
when the Panthers try to become a passing team. It wouldn't be terribly
surprising to me if Ingram saw 20-plus touches in this weekend if
the game gets away from the Panthers like I think it could.
Even though I believe the Bills could be about as toothless on
offense this week as the Raiders were last year without Derek Carr, and the Buffalo run defense can be abysmal at times, I'm
not sure the Jacksonville rushing attack is hitting on enough
cylinders to allow Fournette to top 100 yards rushing. With that
said, he should still see enough volume and red zone work to pay
off for any owner who invests in him. Freeman's usage has been
extremely inconsistent of late. As recently as Week 14 versus
a Saints' pass defense whose strong suit is not at linebacker,
he was not involved in the passing game. Last week, he saw 11
targets against a Panthers' defense with an elite linebacking
corps. As much is the fantasy world wants the Titans to free Henry,
he hasn't been appreciably better than DeMarco Murray outside
of a couple of late runs in games that had already been decided.
The problem isn't him, however. The offensive line has greatly
underachieved compared to last year and Tennessee's passing game
does not complement the running game like one would expect it
to, which makes it easier for the defense to diagnose what is
coming on every play.
I listed McCoy and Ivory only to share their DraftKings prices.
I highly doubt McCoy will play and even if he does, it's hard
to imagine a player who relies so much on his agility and elusiveness
will be able to do so in his predicament. Ivory was a healthy
scratch in Week 17, so he likely needs an injury to Fournette
to be relevant in fantasy. Titans HC Mike Mularkey recently praised
Murray's rehab over the last 1 1/2 weeks from his third-degree
MCL tear, but it's hard to imagine him suiting up - much less
be effective - this week. As such, he was left off. Even if he
plays, he's not worth the risk in fantasy.
If I'm pessimistic about the quarterbacks, it stands to reason this
does not figure to be a great week for receivers either. The owners
who hit on their third receiver in DFS (or in formats like Fuzzy's)
should be well-positioned to finish in the money (or get a good
head start in their pick-your-studs competition). The Saints' passing
game has evolved into jabbing with Thomas and crossing with Kamara
while sprinkling in a bit of Ingram. As a result, Ginn and just
about every other New Orleans receiver has been unusable in three
of the last four weeks. The result has been a heavy dose of Thomas.
Hill has provided a steady floor with his usual high ceiling for
about half a season now, so owners should not hesitate paying up
for him and/or putting him into every one of their pick-your-studs
lineups. In a week where it feels like receivers are overpriced,
Cole is one of the few relative bargains among the mid-priced wideouts.
Owners may keep waiting for him to remember he's an undrafted free
agent out of Kentucky Wesleyan, but he's probably here to stay,
at least for the rest of the season with Lee unlikely to be 100
percent coming off a high-ankle sprain.
Woods is the Rams' top receiver, but few want to acknowledge
that on a team with two wideouts with bigger names. He is expected
to draw Desmond Trufant about half the time this weekend. While
that usually isn't a good thing, Trufant is having a down season
by his standards. Sanu is probably a safer mid-tier option if
only because he benefits from all the attention Jones draws in
the red zone. He projects to see a lot of Troy Hill and Nickell
Robey-Coleman this weekend, making his matchup the most attractive
for Matt Ryan. It feels sacrilegious to rank Jones so low with
only eight teams playing this week, but the mind-numbing reluctance
of the Falcons to manufacture good red zone opportunities for
him has reached a point where it's tough to imagine he'll blow
up in the playoffs even though he has a winnable matchup and common
sense says he should. Funchess moves around the formation a lot,
so he should be able to escape Marshon Lattimore's shadow coverage
on occasion. Whether his quarterback can take advantage of those
non-Lattimore matchups is a coin flip. Watkins has scored in four
of his last five outings and is always a threat to find the end
zone, but he's the third or fourth priority on a number of pass
plays for the Rams. He possesses a pretty low floor in a pick-your-studs
setup and is an upside play at best in DFS.
It's hard to see Kelce living up to his price valuation on DraftKings
based solely on the fact no tight end to face the Titans this season
has exceeded 20 fantasy points in PPR. Given Tennessee's strength
at linebacker and emerging safety Kevin Byard, he's going to have
to work hard to be the first. As a result, I expect Walker to be
a DFS favorite. If he finds the end zone and/or the Chiefs force
Tennessee into a negative game script, the gap between him and Kelce
figures to be minimal. It drops off quickly after the top two, and
I'd venture a guess and say Harris could be as good of a play as
anyone after Kelce and Walker for those DFS players looking to punt
the position. It's almost a given one of the "other options"
will score a touchdown, but good luck figuring out who that may
be.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers Bonus - Points allowed bonus
I'm not entirely sure the Jaguars are who they were just a few weeks
ago and for most of the season, but I'm more than willing to take
my chances against a Buffalo team who probably won't have its best
offensive weapon - and certainly not at his best if he is available.
If Jacksonville rediscovers its earlier form, it could live up to
its expensive price tag on DraftKings. Considering the weapons at
its disposal, Atlanta isn't a great matchup for any defense, but
the Falcons have underwhelmed offensively for the better part of
the season. At some point, owners have to acknowledge a team may
just be what it is for that season and stop expecting things to
change. The Chiefs and the Saints are the only other defenses I
will even remotely consider. Considering their price tags are substantially
higher than the Rams', I'll probably just stick with the top two
on my list.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
