For some time, I and many others have likened fantasy football to
the stock market. Some stocks hold their value extremely well over
time, others crash and burn and still others experience such fluctuation
that it seems almost useless to try to predict what they will do
from one week to the next.
In this respect, former head coach Jerry Glanville was right
on point when he said the NFL stood for "Not for Long",
even though he was talking about officiating at the time. Barring
season-ending injuries, I tend to stick with the player values
(in trade talks anyway) on my Big Boards four weeks into the season,
although there is certainly some give-and-take to that. The reality
is the fantasy stock market is highly volatile outside of the
most elite of the elite players, so what we believed was true
at the end of August may be completely different now, and what
may be true now may be completely different in another 3-4 weeks.
As such, I thought it would be helpful this week to take every
relevant fantasy player and place him into the tier he belongs
in now. At the very least, it never hurts to do it exercise like
this in order to get a better idea of what how we feel about each
player nearing the end of the new preseason. (As I noted in a
column last year, Hall of Famer Steve Young has suggested the
regular season doesn't really begin until September is over given
the relative lack of work players see in August. It's a sentiment
I completely agree with, for what it's worth.) Perhaps at its
best, this exercise can serve as a trade value chart of sorts,
although I would caution against that since "trade value"
is often determined by the scoring and size of a particular league.
Bear in mind these "rankings' are a reflection of what a
player has done thus far combined with what I believe he can do
the rest of the season. As such, just because a player is second
or third at his position in total points doesn't necessarily mean
he has necessarily graduated to top-tier status at his position,
just like two mediocre performances doesn't mean a player isn't
the same player we thought about a month ago.
Note: Rankings are
based on full-point PPR in 12-team leagues.
Analysis: There is plenty of reason
to be happy AND concerned with just about every player on this
list. Newton is still a top-five quarterback despite facing two
of the toughest defenses he'll go against all year in his first
three games, but he is taking way too many hits (and not just
on his usual planned runs). … Brees could very well be in
shootout mode for the rest of the season, which is obviously good
for his owners. The bad news: I'm not sure it's the best thing
for a 37-year-old quarterback to attempt 46.7 throws per game,
especially when he'll be in must-pass mode in the second half
of many games this year. He is going to be taking some punishment
… Rodgers' "slow start" has him ranked inside
the top five at his position, yet he hasn't come close to utilizing
all of his weapons yet. On the downside, his rushing touchdowns
will not continue and he has yet to pass for more than 213 yards.
Brady has yet to play yet, but it could be argued this is one
of his best supporting casts in years. While the early fast start
of LeGarrette Blount should only help his cause, will New England
instead try to be more balance even after Tom returns? I doubt
it, but it is worth at least a bit of consideration. … Stafford
is by far the biggest riser at quarterback thus far, although
it could be argued he hasn't exactly faced the stiffest competition
yet, which is my only apprehension about placing him this high.
The good news for him is that the difficulty in his schedule doesn't
figure to increase all that much, and Marvin Jones looks poised
to prove he was a bargain at $8 M/year. … Even without Donte
Moncrief for the next month, Luck still has plenty of weapons.
Understandably, he isn't running as much this season and the touchdown
passes have dried up over the last two games (Is it Moncrief-related,
the fact the Colts have faced two stellar secondaries or a bit
of both?), but the passing yards are there (304.3 per game). He
should be fine, but the fear he'll likely have to operate in catch-up
mode nearly as often as Brees may lead to more punishment and
possibly another short season.
My only concern with Manning is that his production isn't matching
up with his efficiency (71 percent completion rate) or the talent
of his supporting cast. He has been the victim of several end-zone
drops, however, so I don't think we are looking at a long-term
problem here. He only had four passing touchdowns after three
weeks last year and ended up with a career-high 35. … Big
Ben has to be one of the more frustrating quarterbacks to own
on a yearly basis, if only because his monstrous upside and occasional
elite QB1 production almost always comes crashing back down to
earth after a couple of weeks. Combined with his penchant for
missing multiple games due to injury, owners usually need to make
sure they have another QB1-caliber player to pair with him. …
It's a testament to Rivers' ability and durability that I am keeping
him in the QB1 conversation despite the Chargers' personnel losses
already, but it is for that reason why I can't place him any higher
either. Thankfully (from a matchup-perspective anyway), two games
against Denver should present the only obstacles to Rivers performing
at a QB1 level from now until the team's Week 11 bye.
Analysis: Ryan tops the list of QB2s simply because he is the
overall QB2 in most leagues, but it is fair to wonder how long
this is going to last. After facing perhaps the three worst pass
defenses he is going to see all season in Tampa Bay, Oakland and
New Orleans, he'll get Carolina, Denver, Seattle and San Diego
over the next four weeks. I'll gladly moving up to QB1 if he navigates
his way through that minefield. … Wilson should really be
in the QB1 tier, but he is simply too injured right now for that
to be the case. … Winston has already ran the gamut in only
three weeks, sandwiching monster performances in Weeks 1 and 3
around a dud against Arizona in Week 2. Denver and Carolina await
before the team's Week 6 bye. … It's easy to forget Philadelphia
planned on mothballing Wentz early this season until the Sam Bradford
trade became a possibility. Unlike most people, my biggest surprise
regarding the rookie isn't that he is having success, but why
the Eagles seemed so gung-ho on not playing him. With that said,
I'm not exactly convinced last week's win over Pittsburgh was
the game everyone thought it was. It'll be interesting to see
what he does against the likes of Minnesota in Week 7 and the
New York Giants in Week 9. … Palmer didn't throw a pick
in his first two games, then was intercepted four times against
a reeling Bills' defense. It's not going to be that bad the rest
of the way, but the combination of getting beat up and the growing
list of multi-turnover games is a problem. I'll be stunned if
he lasts the season at this rate.
Bell owners are far from out of the woods
yet given his recent history of injuries and/or suspensions.
Analysis: Most of us knew going into the season this list would
be fairly small and we have been proven right so far. Injuries
certainly helped the cause of players such as Gordon, while projected
split backfields in New York and Tennessee have yet to really
materialize, greatly helping Forte and Murray. Owners of Bell
who weathered his suspension and came out with a 2-1 or 3-0 record
can breathe a sigh of relief, although they are far from out of
the woods yet given his recent history of serious injuries and/or
suspensions. … Johnson has proven to be every bit as reliable
as owners could have hoped for despite at least two very stiff
matchups. He's likely only going to get better. … Gordon
parlayed his offseason workouts with Adrian Peterson into a very
good preseason showing, then needed only a little more than a
week to take over the full-time job in San Diego. So long as the
San Diego offensive line avoids falling apart due to injury like
it did last year, Gordon could very well rival the top two players
on this list.
Lost in the buzz amid the Cowboys' great offensive line is the
fact it hasn't played all that well or stayed all that healthy
so far this year. LT Tyron Smith missed Elliott's breakout performance
last week, while LG La'El Collins will go on injured reserve due
to a toe injury. The No. 4 overall pick talked about being much
more comfortable this past week than he was in Week 1 and it showed
not only in his running, but also in how much Dallas used him.
He's probably not going to quite approach DeMarco Murray's workload
circa 2014, but he's definitely the odds-on favorite to lead the
league in carries. That kind of activity is going to lead to a
pretty healthy floor. … The Jets don't seem overly concerned
about Forte's workload yet. As long as they have dysfunctional
performances every third week like they did in Week 3, they probably
don't have to worry about it either. Still, it is a bit much to
ask a 30-year-back to hold up when receiving 25 touches per game,
but he's deserving of this spot as long as he does.
The Bills appear to be very aware of McCoy's touches each week,
giving him either 19 or 20 in every game so far. With Sammy Watkins'
status a bit of an unknown, that probably isn't going to change
anytime soon. … Miller's healthy workloads may end up rivaling
Elliott's, although it seems logical the Texans will try to use
him slightly more as a receiver since their run-blocking has been
average at best. The return of LT Duane Brown will help in that
regard, and I have little doubt the touchdowns will start coming
soon. … I don't have much faith in Anderson or Murray holding
up for the season, which is why they round out the bottom of this
list. While others seem to believe Anderson has the Denver backfield
to himself, I see a player losing a few more touches to his backup
(Devontae Booker) than most workhorses do. Murray has been the
top back in fantasy so far, but 59.7 percent of his fantasy points
are coming out of the passing game and Derrick Henry has stolen
24 of the backfield's 65 carries. It seems naïve to believe
Murray can maintain his current level of efficiency based on those
facts.
Analysis: Owners love garbage-time stats and that is where a
huge chunk of Hyde's production has come from so far - during
a blowout win against the Rams in Week 1 and a blowout loss the
Seahawks in Week 3. In an offense that lacks a quarterback that
strikes fear the defense, Hyde is proving to be Chip Kelly's favorite
option to move the ball regardless of game situation. …
The nightmare continues for Charles' owners, who will likely be
without him again in Week 4 and watch Kansas City go on bye the
following week. It makes too much sense for him to resume his
old role once he gets a chance to get his feet wet and proves
his readiness, but his owners might not be able to wait until
Week 8 or 9 for that to happen. … Gurley led the offensive
juggernaut known as the Rams to two of their five touchdowns last
week against a stout Bucs' front seven, but volume doesn't exactly
cure the ills created by a back averaging 2.9 per carry or one
getting used so infrequently in the passing game.
Lacy scares me from the standpoint of how freely HC Mike McCarthy
replaces him with Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery - not to mention
James Starks - in the backfield. I'm always also a bit leery of
putting too much faith in a running back whose coach needs to
remind himself to get his lead runner involved as often as McCarthy
does. If you believe last week was the start of the "Free
Eddie Lacy" campaign, then feel free to take advantage of
the bye week and the fact he doesn't have a touchdown yet to acquire
him now. … If I had any faith in Ingram staying healthy
for a full season, he'd likely be in the RB1 tier. I don't. Travaris
Cadet seems to be stealing most of the pass-catching opportunities
that made Ingram so valuable last year, while the goal-line scores
that were so commonplace in 2015 have dried up. It's fair to expect
a market correction in that regard, but the Saints may not be
playing enough close games to give Ingram multiple shots to score
at the goal line or to routinely top 15 carries. … Coleman
and Freeman are part of a dynamic rushing attack and will probably
have at least one more tag-team performance like they did against
the Saints in Week 3. Don't look for it to happen again anytime
soon, however, as the Falcons face the Panthers, Broncos and Seahawks
in succession.
Michael has been so good to this point that it is nearly inconceivable
Thomas Rawls will be handed the lead-back role upon his return.
Given my high ranking of him here, I'm suggesting he's probably
not going to get the starting job back at all in 2016, barring
injury. … Sims isn't the most exciting player to watch and
has two far-from-ideal matchups (Denver then Carolina) as the
Bucs' feature back ahead of him before his Week 6 bye, but his
likely 15-18 touch workload (with roughly a third of those coming
in the passing game) gives him such a very safe floor. Moreover,
the Tampa Bay defense hasn't stopped anybody yet this season,
meaning shootouts could be a way of life for this squad, which
should keep Sims busy on a weekly basis. Doug Martin isn't losing
his job, but shootout-mode means more Sims. … Murray leads
all backs in yards after contact (3.0), has broken at least one
tackle on 31 percent of his runs, scored in every game and runs
behind one of the best lines in the NFL. HC Jack Del Rio stated
in August he wanted Murray to have more touches than last year,
so how is he not an RB1? Great question. Perhaps because the Raiders
don’t want him to become one. (At least not yet anyway.)
Either Del Rio flat-out lied in the preseason about his desire
to run Murray more often (a possibility) or the idea the whole
time was to unleash him over the second half of the season (more
likely). I'm not going to pretend like I know what the Raiders
are thinking, but there really doesn't seem to be any kind of
rhyme or reason to their substitution patterns at running back
at the moment. That kind of chaos suggests to me they're trying
to keep Murray fresh for November and December.
*** I'd just like to mention here that Williams and Booker
- along with Derrick Henry above - are among my favorite targets
in trade talks as I try to stash away lottery tickets on my bench
at the position. It really shouldn't take much to acquire any
of them and their current owners (assuming they don't have Bell,
Anderson or Murray, respectively) can't ask for that much in return.
Analysis: A slow day at the office for Brown anymore is roughly
eight catches and 100 yards. That's the kind of floor you hope
for when you pick any player at No. 1. … OBJ hasn't caught
a TD pass yet - he dropped a sure one two weeks ago and Manning
overthrew for another one in Week 1 if memory serves - and he
still ranks 15th in overall scoring. His eruption (we're talking
fantasy here and not about taking his anger out on a kicking net)
is coming soon. … Green has been all over the map so far,
but eight catches and 77 yards against Denver last week is probably
as bad as it is going to get for a while. Only the Patriots in
Week 6 look like a speed bump for him before the Bengals' Week
9 bye. … With Vincent Jackson contributing next to nothing
and Adam Humphries being the only other receiver around to steal
targets, Evans should be a pretty solid bet for six catches, at
least 70 yards and a touchdown just about every week. Denver and
Carolina await, but he is primed for a huge season. … A
6-205-2 line three weeks into the season will almost always propel
a receiver to the top of the mountain at his position. Marvin
Jones took advantage the same Sam Shields-less secondary Stefon
Diggs did one week earlier, so I don't think we have to worry
about Jones holding onto the top spot, but who cares? Was Cincinnati
really squashing his potential or is Matthew Stafford just that
much better than Andy Dalton?
The Falcons appear to be committed to this whole spreading the
wealth thing, which is a problem for Julio Jones. I'm pretty sure
no one expected a repeat of his 204 targets from a season ago,
but I don't think even the most pessimistic person had Jones pegged
for 10 catches through three weeks either. There's a solid chance
he'll actually perform better against tougher competition since
those opponents will probably be less likely to send double-teams
and safety help his way as often. … The deep ball doesn't
appear to be there nearly as often for Robinson as it was last
year, but the targets sure are. Expect his yardage to pick up
starting this week versus the Colts and again after the Week 5
bye against the Bears, Raiders and Titans. … Well, Week
3 wasn't exactly what I had in mind when I suggested defenses
attempt to be a bit more physical with Benjamin, but I thought
consistency was going to be a problem for him. With that said,
he shouldn't have any issues in at least two of the next three
weeks versus the Falcons, the Bucs and the Saints. … Hopkins
was always a candidate for regression given the arrival of Will
Fuller and emphasis on getting Lamar Miller the ball, but he seems
to be holding his low-end WR1 value just fine - at least when
the Texans doesn't attempt to execute one of the worst offensive
game plans of the season like they did in Week 3. … Landry
might as well be Antonio Brown without the touchdown upside. His
PPR floor is so ridiculously high that it is a slight disappointment
if he doesn't score at least 15 points every week. He has seen
no fewer than 10 targets in any game so far. … Marshall
has been a disappointment for those folks who only read and care
about the final numbers, but perhaps I'm still in amazement he's
even still playing. I'm not concerned about him picking up the
pace either, so long as his knee is not a problem. He might be
0-for-5 on end-zone targets thus far, but he was 9-for-21 in such
situations last year with similar personnel. Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick
is probably always going to be a candidate to have a meltdown
like he did last week, but if we've learned anything about the
NFL over the years, most players tend to bounce back in a big
way over the next week or two.
Analysis: The only reason Baldwin and Fitzgerald aren't in the
WR1 group are because of their quarterbacks. As long as Russell
Wilson continues to absorb a new injury each week, I fear for
Baldwin's ability to maintain his current level of play. Trevone
Boykin is a Wilson clone, but he's not a Wilson clone, if you
catch my drift. … Fitz is doing the same thing he did early
last year, but Carson Palmer is starting to become a concern.
If/when Palmer misses game time this season, I can guarantee Drew
Stanton will not be keeping Fitzgerald's stock at the level it
is now. … Cooks is really a more consistent version of Hilton.
Both deliver game-changing weeks on a fairly regular basis and
most often make their money with the deep ball, but their splash
games don't come often enough to be labeled a WR1. … Decker
probably belongs in the WR1 group as well given how consistently
good he is - his streak of 18 games with at least 80 yards and/or
a touchdown ended in Week 3 - but his shoulder injury is enough
of a concern at press time that he must downgraded. … Whereas
Decker's injury concern appears to be a real threat, owners of
Edelman are constantly living in fear of the same eventuality.
It's hard to ignore his 100-catch potential, but it comes with
so much risk that it is hard to rank him even as high as I have
him.
On about 25 other teams, Cooper would be a clear WR1 and probably
a threat for 1,200-plus yards and 10 touchdowns. In Oakland, he
is seemingly avoided like the plague in the red zone. Both of
his red-zone targets this year have come from the 2, but it is
laughable he has a total of nine such targets in 18 career games.
… Benjamin's battlefield promotion means more high-leverage
situations for him, although it is interesting he has yet to hit
10 targets. His role isn't changing anytime soon, but perhaps
Tyrell Williams will continue to see his targets increase instead.
Jeffery is being wasted in Chicago, while Matthews has probably
already reached his peak in Philadelphia. Yet, the gap between
the two is about six points in PPR. The Bears are looking very
much like a dumpster fire at this point, but I think we can at
least trust them to get their best offensive player involved more
often. Or is that too much to ask too? … The inclusion of
Cobb here will probably raise an eyebrow. While you can count
me among the unhappy owners, don't include me among the overly
concerned. As Jordy Nelson continues to divert attention away
from the middle of the field, defenses will be more inclined to
make Aaron Rodgers force the ball underneath to Cobb. His track
record is much too good to believe his slow start will continue
much longer. … Bryant suffers a knee injury in Week 3, then
gets fined for missing team meetings and the MRI to diagnose his
injury. Only in Jerry's World does this kind of thing happen.
He's at the bottom of this list mostly due to the hairline fracture
of his tibia that should keep him out a few weeks, but also because
he hasn't been nearly as big of part of the offense as we might
have expected.
Analysis: Injuries are obviously keeping Moncrief and Watkins
outside the WR2 tier, while Tate's 7.2 yards per catch is obviously
doing him no favors. Tate is a bit scary to pursue at the moment
and even scarier to start if you own him, but his 7.3 targets
per game - regardless of how close most of those targets are to
the line of scrimmage - suggest he should be ranked much higher
than WR71 (!!!!!). … I really only had a chance to draft
Gordon in one league this summer and ended up with Doug Baldwin
instead. Given the caliber of receivers Cleveland will have when
everyone is healthy and the lack of decent quarterback play, I
don't see Gordon having a great impact this season. … Hogan
has apparently become drop-worthy in at least one of my leagues
(20-man rosters). I doubt that will remain the case when Tom Terrific
debuts next week.
Analysis: The return of Gronk was about as much fun to experience
as watching the Texans put no effort into game planning last Thursday.
The Patriots are likely hoping to match up his return to full-time
duty up with the return of Tom Brady, so don't hesitate to sit
Gronk one more week if you have a decent option. Feel free to
unleash the beast after that. … Olsen brings such wonderful
consistency to a position that otherwise lacks it. If he doesn't
finish as the TE1 this year with a three-game head start on Gronkowski
and a slow start from Reed, something is wrong inside the matrix.
… Just once it would be nice to see what Kelce is capable
of doing outside Kansas City. At least he's established a five-catch
floor thus far, which is more than can be said about his usage
in the past. … Jamison Crowder is tied for the league lead
in red-zone targets, which should tell you just about everything
you need to know as to why Reed hasn't scored yet. … It
appears I was about 3-4 years too early on Rudolph, who is finally
seeing the kind of usage I expected following his nine-TD campaign
in 2012. Injuries have contributed to his slow "development",
but there is plenty of reason to believe new TE coach Pat Shurmur
has whispered in the ear of OC Norv Turner and QB Sam Bradford
to get his pupil involved. I'm not sure it's going to last given
Minnesota's offensive line problems, but his usage rate suggests
he's going to remain heavily involved.
Hello, Coby Fleener! I'm not sure one great game against the
league's worst defense against tight ends is necessarily worth
a celebration, but it sure beats the lack of chemistry he had
with Drew Brees before. Week 3 is definitely going to go down
as one of his finest fantasy performances of the year, but at
least the owners who spent a sixth-round pick on him now understand
why he was worth the investment. … Thomas is fun to own
for about 2-3 weeks of every year, if you are lucky. That is usually
about how long it takes before he makes his weekly appearance
on the injury report. … The main difference between Ebron
and Pitta is that the former has seen a red-zone target. Both
are incredibly injury-prone, but both are very important pieces
of the offense when they are on the field. Both are also clear
TE1s when they are healthy. … If Dez Bryant is going to
miss multiple weeks with his leg injury, it's probably about time
to fire up the Jason Witten bandwagon again. I don't think an
average of 10 targets is out of the question while Bryant is sidelined.
Outside of Cole Beasley, no other player seems to be on Dak Prescott's
mind in the pocket more often than Witten.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
