Over the last two weeks, I went through the process of breaking
down offensive coordinator tendencies in the AFC
and NFC, highlighting
backfield and target shares. That work set the stage for this week,
as I attempt to use that information to lay the foundation for how
much players might be utilized this year. The problem with a lot
of fantasy football projections is the math doesn't add up when
to a realistic team total in the end. Unless you are keeping a close
eye on the overall play total for every team in a computer program
(like I do with Microsoft Excel), it's easy to have one team finishing
with 800 offensive plays and another going over 1,200 when all the
individual numbers are calculated. (As a point of reference, most
teams run somewhere between 950 and 1,050 offensive plays per season.
A few will exceed that range, while several tend to finish with
just over 900.)
Being able to predict opportunity - perhaps the most important
variable in fantasy football - is more than half of the battle
when it comes to being able to construct accurate rankings. Thus,
the goal over the next two weeks: provide analysis on some of
the issues that played a factor in the way I divided the workload
for each team. While I tried to accurately project how many passes
each quarterback might throw, I ask that you pay more attention
to the actual number of pass attempts and less to the individual
quarterback breakdown. Also, just about every team finishes a
season with several more pass attempts than targets, so if you
are wondering why the targets and attempts aren't the same, that
is why.
The bolded numbers near the top of the middle three columns
are the totals for each column. The bolded numbers in the last
two columns reflect each team's projected run-pass ratio.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,016 2017 Total: 1,027
The high totals for Jackson aren't necessarily about Flacco losing
his job during the course of the season, although the possibility
certainly exists. I'm betting more on the possibility that something
like the preseason back injury that clearly affected Flacco throughout
the first half of last season will lead to significant snaps for
Jackson. Dixon is obviously much more of a threat to Collins than
Allen is, but the ex-Seahawk built up a lot of equity with the
coaching staff after handling 19.2 touches per game from Week
8 on. If Collins carries over his performance from last season
into 2018, Dixon should be considered the odds-on favorite to
beat out Allen for change-of-pace duties.
It's really Crabtree and then everyone one else among the receivers
and tight ends. Before last season's injury woes (back and concussion),
Flacco was able to turn Kamar Aiken into a regular fantasy starter
in 2015 before Dennis Pitta, Mike Wallace and Steve Smith all
went over the 70-catch (and 100-target) mark in 2016. Volume isn't
going to be an issue for Crabtree. Brown is theoretically a great
fit for Flacco given the latter's well-documented arm strength,
but the former's durability makes him a very unstable player to
roster in fantasy. Snead has the potential to be a sneaky fantasy
contributor if he can lock down slot duties, but he's going to
face some competition for those snaps with Andrews, who reminds
me a lot of a young Pitta. Flacco has long been a friend of tight
ends and last year was no exception with Ben Watson. Hurst may
not be expected to replace the 61 catches, 79 targets, 522 yards
and four touchdowns the veteran leaves behind, but the rookie
will be asked to fill the same role and provide more big plays.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 973 2017 Total: 963
Allen may be the one top quarterback prospect from April's draft
who most needs a redshirt year, if only because Buffalo is going
to need at least one more offseason to provide him enough weapons
to be successful. McCoy turned 30 earlier this month and is already
past the 2,000-carry mark that typically spells the beginning
of the end for most running backs. He has already told some team
personnel he's ready to accept fewer touches going forward in
order to stay healthy, so another 340-touch season probably isn't
in the cards. The only returning starter on the offensive line
that will begin the season at the same position he had at the
start of last year is RT Jordan Mills. As such, owners need to
distance themselves from the notion Buffalo still possesses one
of the best run-blocking units in the league.
Benjamin showed flashes of what he could give the offense after
he arrived from Carolina in late October, but 2017 was a mostly
lost season because his knee wasn't right for about 75 percent
of it. Although the Bills need him to contribute everywhere, Benjamin
needs to emerge as the red zone maven he appeared to be after
his 2014 rookie campaign. He should exceed my target projection
if he can stay healthy for 16 games, but durability has not been
a strong suit for him over his last three pro seasons. Jones entered
the league last year as one of the most sure-handed receivers
in the country out of college. His 36.5 percent catch rate as
a rookie suggests the game was too big for him in his first season.
Much as was the case was early last year, the absence of playmakers
around Clay bodes well for him to lead the team in targets. Clay
changed his diet in the offseason in his latest effort to do what
he can to stay healthy for an entire season.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 993 2017 Total: 887
By now, Dalton has pretty much shown us his ceiling and his floor.
It should be noted he was just outside of QB1 range from Week
10 to Week 17 and posted a 25:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio
after OC Bill Lazor took over play-calling duties from Ken Zampese
two games into the season, suggesting he really clicked with his
new play-caller despite terrible offensive line play. The Bengals
appear ready to make Mixon a true featured back after four straight
seasons of giving two backs a fairly large slice of the backfield
pie. After drawing David Johnson comps during the draft process
in 2017, it's about time to see if a back who has never handled
more than 226 carries in a season (including high school) can
do so at the highest level.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that Dalton's last two poor seasons
(2014 and 2016) coincided with Green missing at least four games
both years. Last season was a down year by Green's standards,
although he too was a better fantasy performer under Lazor. Consistency
has been a bit of an issue with him in recent years, but few players
are better bets to finish inside the top 12 at their position
every season. It's anyone's guess as to whether or not the Bengals
will cycle through Ross, LaFell and maybe even Boyd opposite Green,
but common sense and draft capital suggest Cincinnati will roll
with Ross if a tiebreaker is needed. My low target projection
for him reflects his injury history and not a lack of confidence
in his abilities. Eifert appears ready for training camp, but
expect the Bengals to play it safe with their injury-prone tight
end; his history suggests he'll miss at least half of the season.
Much like Vernon Davis in Washington behind injury-prone Jordan
Reed, Kroft is worth stashing in deeper leagues to protect against
another long absence from Eifert. Each of Lazor's three offenses
(Miami in 2014 and 2015, Cincinnati in 2017) featured a tight
end with at least a 12 percent target share.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 997 2017 Total: 958
Mayfield would not have been my choice at No. 1 in April, but
at least the Browns are making a respectable effort to find themselves
a long-term quarterback. Armed with perhaps his best supporting
cast and offensive coordinator since becoming a regular starter
with Buffalo back in 2015, Taylor's running ability and reluctance
to throw interceptions makes him a dark-horse QB1 option in fantasy
- much like he was as a Bill when given a chance. At the very
least, he should serve as a great role model for Mayfield and
be a solid "bridge" quarterback. After running the ball
384 times in 2017, expect Cleveland to be among the most run-heavy
offenses this year. Taylor will obviously help boost that number,
but a team doesn't pony up over $9 million per year for two running
backs and draft a third runner in the second round unless it wants
to kick up some dust. Chubb is the best pure runner of the group,
while Johnson is the most gifted in the passing game. Even if
the rookie proves he is the best early-down back of the bunch,
money dictates all three will get playing time. It's fair to wonder
if the Browns won't try to utilize a New Orleans-like approach
going back to the days of Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren
Sproles.
Cleveland's defense figures to be strong enough this season to
keep games close, so the volume one might expect from a team with
Gordon and Landry as its starting receivers may end up disappointing.
If Gordon is all the way back, Landry should still easily top
100 targets, but he may fall well short of the 153 he's averaged
over the past three seasons. New OC Todd Haley desperately wanted
a seam-stretching tight end throughout his tenure in Pittsburgh
and now he has one in Cleveland. Even with the talent the Browns
boast at receiver, it would be a small upset if Njoku can't hit
my target projection and/or finish as a top-15 fantasy tight end.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 990 2017 Total: 1,023
Regardless of whether Keenum's emergence was the latest journeyman
quarterback success story for Pat Shurmur or not, there's little
question Keenum should bring stability to a position that hasn't
it since 2014. Despite the latest reports Booker is the favorite
to start Week 1, HC Vance Joseph has already stated he expects
two and possibly three running backs to remain involved all season
long. I wouldn't be surprised if seventh-round pick Williams or
UDFA Philip Lindsay breaks into to the rotation at some point,
although Freeman is the best back of the bunch if he has fully
healed from his 2016 knee injury.
Thomas has been a volume-dependent receiver for quite some time,
and his yards per reception has dropped in four straight seasons.
Was it the quarterback play or has his play been slowly deteriorating
the whole time? With Sanders ticketed for more work in the slot
following the second-round selection of Courtland Sutton, this
might be the year Sanders overtakes Thomas for fantasy purposes.
Butt should be considered the favorite at tight end in Denver,
but Heuerman is running with the first team for now. This is very
much a fluid situation, and I can easily see significantly increasing
Butt's projected targets as we move along.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,014 2017 Total: 973
HC Bill O'Brien has believed in a strong rushing attack for as
long as he's been a head coach, going back to his days at Penn
State. Watson's emergence doesn't figure to change that, and it's
quite likely O'Brien will look to Seattle's offense - in Russell
Wilson's early years - as a model for what he wants his offense
to look like moving forward. Foreman's long road to recovery from
his Achilles' injury figures to lock Miller into another 200-plus
carry season, although the only way my projection for both players
happens is if Foreman begins the season on the PUP list - which
is what I expect at the moment.
Hopkins has established himself as one of the best receivers
in the league after enjoying the kind of season he did in 2017
despite playing with four different quarterbacks. Expecting him
to repeat his 96-catch, 1,378-yard, 13-touchdown campaign might
be a bit much though. Unfortunately, that is how he is being drafted
in fantasy leagues right now. Weeden may be an even worse option
at quarterback than anyone Houston threw out on the field last
year after Watson got hurt, plus we probably have to expect better
injury luck for Fuller and a bigger role for Coutee than any of
O'Brien's other recent slot receivers have seen. Houston has a
lot of talent at tight end, but none of the options are particularly
refined. The Texans have already stated they expect to use a committee
at the position anyway.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,019 2017 Total: 938
As it has for most of his career, the offense will continue to
revolve around Luck and go as far as he can take it. I'll be the
first to admit 575 pass attempts and 46 carries is an optimistic
projection for a player who hasn't proven he can take a hit or
fall on his surgically repaired shoulder without incident yet,
but the difference between this season and last season is Luck's
confidence in the recovery. He will be a frequent target of mine
after the top three to five quarterbacks come off the board in
drafts. The running game should be vastly improved because of
the resources the Colts have poured into their offensive line
in recent years, but their defense might be a year away from supporting
an offense that can run the ball 450 times. Given HC Frank Reich's
history of committee backfields, Mack is going to need to be awfully
impressive in training camp and during the preseason to surpass
my projections for him. Even if he does that, Indianapolis drafted
Hines with the hope he could be what Darren Sproles was for Reich
and Eagles HC Doug Pederson in Philadelphia in 2016.
Hilton was about as easy of a bust candidate as there was in
2017 once it became clear Luck's return was going to be delayed.
This year, he is about as obvious of a rebound candidate as there
is so long as Luck stays healthy. His projected target total is
conservative for that reason. Grant may be the public's favorite
for No. 2 duties since he got $5 million in free agency, but Rogers
is a favorite of GM Chris Ballard. A lingering hamstring injury
kept Rogers from making much of an impact in 2017, but this is
the second straight offseason in which he has impressed the coaches
and front office. He needs to be getting drafted more often in
fantasy. While the arrival of Ebron figures to create panic for
potential owners of Doyle, the latter is a player everyone seems
to love in Indianapolis - including Luck. Reich figures to use
plenty of two-tight sets moving forward, and there should be enough
for both players to be worth using more often than not in fantasy.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,046 2017 Total: 1,054
The Jaguars appeared to become more of a passing offense late
in the season as Bortles began to earn more trust, but it's still
going to be hard to buy into the possibility he is anything more
than an athletic quarterback with erratic decision-making skills
being supported by a physical running game and top-notch defense.
Nevertheless, the coaching staff feels comfortable enough with
him to increase his responsibilities and aggressiveness, which
can only help remain firmly on the QB2 radar. Fournette is reportedly
at 223 pounds - his lowest weight since high school - and down
from 228 last season. With Chris Ivory no longer around to take
some of his "big-back carries," Fournette is primed
for 300-plus rushing attempts if he can avoid the ankle problems
that have slowed him in each of his last two years. A lean-and-mean
Fournette along with an improved offensive line and all of the
volume a fantasy owner could ask for makes the No. 4 overall pick
in 2017 a prime candidate to join the elite fantasy players at
his position this season.
It remains to be seen whether or not Jacksonville made the right
decision in keeping Lee at about $4.5 million per year less than
Allen Robinson signed for in Chicago. As it stands right now,
the Jaguars have four complementary receivers, all of whom can
probably enjoy one or two fantasy WR1 days during the course of
the season. Moncrief (one-year deal worth $9.6 million) and Lee
(four-year deal that averages $9.5 million per season) are getting
paid like low-end WR1s, but both could easily get outperformed
by Cole and Westbrook in any week and perhaps over the course
of the season. The one pass-catcher who should be a regular fantasy
starter is Seferian-Jenkins. Bortles reportedly forged an instant
connection with his new tight end, so it would be a minor upset
if he doesn't at least double his three touchdowns with the Jets
in 2017.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 998 2017 Total: 948
During his early days as the head coach with the Eagles, HC Andy
Reid took a highly athletic, rocket-armed quarterback from an
option-based college offense named Donovan McNabb and asked him
to throw short. Mahomes wasn't an option quarterback at Texas
Tech, but most of the rest applies. The main difference? Hill,
Watkins and Kelce are significantly more talented than anybody
Reid had in Philadelphia (Terrell Owens being an obvious exception).
Hill, Watkins and Kelce all do their best work downfield. If Reid
caters to his talent, there is the potential for this group to
put up some freaky fantasy numbers. The Chiefs' pursuit of Damien
Williams and Kerwynn Williams in free agency suggests there is
some doubt Ware will be ready for the season. His healthy return
is perhaps the only thing - outside of Reid's frustrating tendency
to forget about the running game in three or four games per season
- keeping Hunt from potentially improving on his rookie season.
Reid is mentioned he would like to see Hunt more involved in the
passing game this season, further solidifying what should be another
banner season from a Reid running back.
Most owners tend to believe a new quarterback will lean on the
team's established No. 1 receiver because that is what the old
quarterback did. (While it's not necessarily poor logic, quarterbacks
will tend to favor whichever receiver they have worked with the
most - something that's not always easy to tell based on media
reports. If we follow the money once again, Kansas City didn't
decide to pay Watkins an average of $16 million per year to be
Robin to Hill's Batman. At the bare minimum, he should be Hill's
fantasy equal. (Early reports make it sound as if Mahomes is already
leaning toward Watkins as his favorite receiver.) While it is
remotely possible Kelce's looks could take a hit with another
cook in the kitchen, it is unlikely since Kelce has hovered around
a 22 to 23 percent target share in each of the last three seasons.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 992 2017 Total: 1,002
Rivers' ability to fly under the radar in fantasy year after
year is utterly amazing; he has finished as a QB1 in five straight
seasons, yet he is usually available for owners as a QB2. His
ability to consistently overcome poor offensive line play is remarkable,
and that's before we take into account the fact he hasn't missed
a game since becoming a full-time starter in 2006. Last season's
28 touchdown passes were his fewest in five seasons, but he countered
that with his lowest interception total (10) since 2009. Gordon
has supposedly earned a reputation as a compiler who is good enough
to keep his job but not good enough to put his stamp on games
consistently. If that is the case, why is he ranked second in
the NFL with
116 forced missed tackles since entering the league in 2015?
Still think he's a compiler? I challenge you to name more than
one offensive lineman he's played with in multiple seasons during
his pro career. Most people can't without doing an online search,
and it's a key reason why he has yet to top four yards per carry
in a season. The Chargers should have more than a few leads to
protect this season, so I suspect this will be the third time
in as many years Gordon will see more carries than he did the
previous season. Should anything happen to him over the course
of the season, Jackson should be able to fill in more than adequately.
As such, Jackson is well worth adding as a handcuff.
Hunter Henry's unfortunate ACL injury paves the way for Allen
to see more than the 159 targets he saw a year ago. I chose to
go lower with him primarily because I expect the Chargers to rely
more heavily on their defense and running game because they should
be able to do just that. Williams and Williams - and to a lesser
extent Benjamin - should all be viable in fantasy because they
aren't going to need a lot of targets when so many of their catches
will be downfield. They figure to be inconsistent for as long
as Allen stays healthy, but they'll likely hit big when Rivers
gives them more than a handful of targets. Green is viewed as
a potential sleeper pick in part because owners see opportunity
in an offense that likely made Antonio Gates a future Hall of
Famer and allowed Henry to thrive as a rookie two seasons ago.
The sad part is Green is entering his eighth season as a pro and
played in a historically good offense a few years ago but has
never attracted more than 37 targets. Bowman has a better shot
to be a regular fantasy contributor in my opinion.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 981 2017 Total: 962
Tannehill may not ever become anything special as an NFL quarterback,
but he deserves a bit more respect than he gets. His offensive
lines have been consistently poor throughout his NFL career, while
Parker's injury woes have robbed him of the opportunity to play
with a potentially very good receiver. Tannehill was on pace to
enjoy a career year in 2016 before injuring his ACL, and the decision
to rehab it last offseason cost him 2017 when he tore it in training
camp. HC Adam Gase has worked marvels with similarly talented
quarterbacks in the past, and it should come as no surprise if
Tannehill picks up where he left off in 2016 if he can stay on
the field. Owners were understandably seduced by Drake's incredible
finish to last season, but he has never been a featured back in
college or the pros in large part because he couldn't hold up
physically. He should be considered the favorite to lead the Dolphins
in carries this season because he is perhaps the best offensive
weapon they have, but I cannot imagine a scenario in which Gore
isn't stealing substantial playing time. Few run inside or pick
up the blitz better than Gore - two areas that tend to catch the
eyes of coaches.
Miami has a deeper receiving corps than at any time in recent
memory. However, the only way that's going to make a difference
is if Parker can avoid injury long enough to fulfill his potential
and Amendola can be a serviceable replacement for Jarvis Landry
for at least 10 games. Wilson's projection is an acknowledgment
both of those occurrences are unlikely to happen. Either way,
Wilson is probably going to have a bigger role than most expect
and a good bet to beat my projection. Gesicki is the most likely
tight end from the 2018 draft class to be this year's Evan Engram.
There just aren't a lot of people in the world who check in at
6-6 and 250 pounds with a vertical jump of over 40 inches and
possess soft hands. Gesicki's floor should what Julius Thomas
did in 14 games last year: 41 catches on 62 targets. His upside?
Something approaching what Engram did with the Giants.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,046 2017 Total: 1,035
Brady has attempted more than 600 passes only once the last four
seasons, but this year could be an exception considering his personnel.
Each of the Patriots' top three backs is above-average in the
passing game, and the offensive line - even one led by the venerable
OL coach Dante Scarnecchia - may have trouble in the early going
getting used to each other, making the conditions more favorable
for a quick-hitting, short-passing game. The backfield is seemingly
a puzzle to be figured out every year, but there's very little
in HC Bill Belichick's (or OC Josh McDaniels') recent history
to suggest either one wants to feature Michel in any way, shape
or form. New England re-signed Burkhead to a three-year contract
in March, and he appears to be the favorite for goal-line work.
As usual, White figures to see the bulk of the work in passing
situations. Michel should lead the team in touches when all is
said and done, but he'll need to avoid the fumbles that plagued
him in college to do so.
Hogan stands a great chance of being a fantasy WR1 over the first
four weeks of 2018 as the only proven receiver Brady has at his
disposal while Edelman serves his suspension. While it's never
just as easy as saying he'll inherit the 19.5 percent target share
Brandin Cooks leaves behind, it's a reasonable expectation should
Matthews prove he can't win on the outside consistently once Edelman
returns. Edelman has pretty much been a lock for about 10 targets
per game since he first broke through in 2013. Gronkowski should
be considered the heavy favorite to lead the team in targets considering
he'll have a four-game head start on Edelman, and there's no reason
to believe his opportunities near the goal line are going to drop
anytime soon.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 963 2017 Total: 937
While offseason reports make it sound as if Darnold could be
the Week 1 starter, the Jets would be doing themselves a favor
by making sure the rookie is ready and not using an artificial
deadline such as the season opener to usher him into the lineup.
I don't think it's reasonable to suggest he'll stand on the sidelines
for more than a month, and I don't think the Jets will wait until
Weeks 9 and 10 (perhaps the softest two-game stretch in their
schedule) to make the change from McCown. Crowell figures to be
the clear early-down workhorse, but it remains to be seen if New
York's defense will be good enough to allow him to build up volume.
To hear the coaches tell it, McGuire is the new third-down back
at the very least … and perhaps more. How Powell - arguably
the team's best all-around back - is seemingly getting pushed
out of the rotation is beyond me.
The Jets have good depth at receiver, but the team is clearly
leaning towards making Anderson its top option. If he can stay
out of trouble off the field, New York may be poised to make him
a star. Three-wide sets should be the base formation this season
given the lack of experience at tight end, and Enunwa - assuming
he doesn't have a setback with his neck - may actually end up
serving as the team's de facto tight end given his size and ability
to work the middle of the field. Enunwa's return figures to hurt
Kearse the most, although Pryor can easily overtake Kearse if
he proves 2017 was just an injury nightmare in Washington. If
that ends up being the case and Pryor rediscovers his 2016 form,
Anderson's projected target total will be too high. Herndon is
clearly the most talented tight end of the group, but the Jets
seem convinced they'll be using a committee at the position.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 976 2017 Total: 928
HC Jon Gruden earned a reputation for driving quarterbacks crazy
during the offseason and even the practice week in his first stint
as a head coach, but he usually got the results he desired. Carr
may not have another season like he did in 2016 (28 touchdowns,
six interceptions), but he's better than what he showed last year.
(His Week 4 back injury played a huge role in that.) Gruden rolled
some eyes by saying he was trying to throw the game back to 1998
shortly after his hire, but all that likely means is Oakland will
try to restore the run-pass balance it enjoyed on offense in 2016.
With four capable backs on the roster and not much differentiation
among the group (two early-down pounders, two scatbacks), it's
going to be hard to have much faith in any of them on draft day.
If the Raiders end up cutting either Washington or Richard - a
distinct possibility since most teams don't like carrying four
running backs and a fullback - the winner could be a serviceable
flex option in fantasy.
For the first time since Cooper arrived in Oakland in 2015, the
team has no reason not to make him the focal point of its passing
attack. It's not as if Cooper hasn't had opportunities before
- he's never had a target share lower than 21.6 percent - but
a reliance on Michael Crabtree near the end zone and in other
clutch situations has generally led to former No. 4 overall pick
to disappoint at the end of each year. Barring another injury-plagued
season, he will have no such excuses in 2018. Nelson is almost
impossible to project; two years ago, he was a 97-catch, 152-target,
14-touchdown receiver who could not be guarded. Last year, he
was an aging player tagged as a product of Aaron Rodgers' greatness
who was exposed once Brett Hundley was forced to play. Is there
any chance he becomes the new Crabtree and steals Cooper's thunder?
Sure. However, it seems unlikely. If Gruden did anything well
in his first stint on the sidelines, it was the ability to design
plays to get his best players the ball. Gruden talked up Cook
this spring, but the latter has long been a seam-stretching tight
end who isn't a factor in the red zone and struggles with consistency.
The odds are long Gruden will be the one to change that reputation.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 1,017 2017 Total: 1,027
It's unclear what the move from former OC Todd Haley to first-time
play-caller Randy Fichtner was supposed to accomplish other than
appease Roethlisberger, but a good bet is Pittsburgh will throw
more often since Fichtner has been his position coach since 2010.
Regarding Bell this season, I've said it before and I'll say it
again: he is coming off his most inefficient season as a rusher
in four years and did not break a run longer than 27 yards. Since
2000, in the 16 instances in which a back saw such 400-plus touches
one year and played the next, the average drop-off has been about
110 touches, 800 total yards and 7.5 touchdowns. I don't
recall any of the other backs skipping one - much less two straight
- preseasons. Perhaps less "football work" in the spring
and summer ends up being the way to combat such heavy workloads
from running backs, but there is much more history to suggest
Bell will hold up all season.
There's no reason to project Brown for fewer than 10 targets
per game until he gives us reason to do so, pure and simple. The
Smith-Schuster hype train has been running hot for several months,
but the easy thing to forget is that Brown missed two games and
Martavis Bryant seemingly checked out around midseason. If Washington
proves to be an upgrade over 2017 Bryant and someone like McDonald
becomes a more important part of the offense, there may not be
much room for target growth for Smith-Schuster. McDonald has never
been able to prove he can stay healthy for very long, and plenty
of his former fans in San Francisco would suggest catching the
ball consistently has also been an issue. However, Pittsburgh
is a team that has been searching for a playmaker at tight end
for years, and McDonald gave it plenty of reason to believe he
can be the guy to end that search with his play at the end of
last season.
2018 Projected Total Offensive Plays: 994 2017 Total: 939
The 2016 season seems so long ago for Mariota, who took advantage
of a soft schedule that year to overcome the same conservative
offensive philosophy that seemed to doom him last season. In comes
new OC Matt LaFleur, who brings with him a plethora of experience
learning the game from Kyle Shanahan. Does that mean Mariota is
a lock to fulfill his potential this season? Not at all. But it
does seem reasonable a very talented passer with great mobility
will be allowed to show off his entire athletic arsenal for the
first time. Lewis had not played more than nine games in any of
his three previous seasons (2012, 2015 and 2016) until last year,
so the Titans will be doing themselves a favor by not keeping
at or below what I have him projected for above. Conversely, Henry
could handle more work, but I think it will be a balancing act
for the coaching staff throughout the first half of the season.
Davis will be helped immensely by the fact he didn't have to
deal with offseason surgery this spring and can participate fully
in training camp in the preseason. He should be a star in this
league at some point in the near future. Matthews continues to
be an underappreciated asset in fantasy. For a player easily capable
of 800 receiving yards and 4-5 touchdowns, he remains a great
value pick at his 11th-round ADP. Walker's time as Mariota's favorite
option may be coming to an end soon, but I'm going to keep projecting
him for 100-plus targets until he starts showing signs of slowing
down. He's been targeted at least 102 times in each of last four
years.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.