Chiefs at Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Just when
we thought that there was some consistency beginning to develop
in the Kansas City passing game, we are reminded that, well, it’s
still Alex Smith behind center. In a blowout loss to the Colts
at home, Smith had his worst fantasy day of the season as he threw
for just 153 yards and no touchdowns with an interception and
two fumbles. This embarrassing performance comes immediately following
his best game of the season when he threw five touchdowns against
the hapless Raiders. What this game really showed us is that while
Smith was on a nice five-game streak where he threw multiple touchdowns,
we cannot trust players in these short pass offenses to put up
big numbers every week...and we certainly shouldn’t trust
them when fantasy championships are on the line.
Smith and the Chiefs produced one of their better offensive days
against the Chargers back in Week 12. On that day, Smith threw
for a season-high 294 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
Receivers Donnie Avery and Dwayne Bowe both scored touchdowns
that afternoon while Dexter McCluster led the team with seven
receptions. The San Diego defense has struggled against opposing
passing games all year, but they have been significantly better
in recent weeks. Since allowing Smith to throw for three scores
in Week 12, the Chargers have allowed just four passing touchdowns
in their past four games combined—and that includes a game
against Peyton Manning. This unit isn’t vastly improved
personnel wise but against a Kansas City offense that is coming
off of their worst game of the season and in a game that the Chiefs
don’t really need to win to improve their playoff positioning,
this is the kind of game that could lead to a frustrating fantasy
day. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see the Chiefs
give their starters plenty of rest this Sunday, so now is not
the time risk having them in your fantasy lineups unless you are
desperate. Look for Chase Daniel to lead this offense through
most of the afternoon.
Running Game Thoughts: After another great performance of 106
rushing yards and a touchdown even in a blowout loss to the Colts,
Jamaal Charles has run away with the fantasy award for best running
back of the 2013 season. Charles’ 1,287 rushing yards are
second best in the league only behind Philadelphia’s LeSean
McCoy while his 12 rushing touchdowns are most in the league.
Where he really stands out, though, is as a receiver. Charles’
693 receiving yards are 119 more than any other running back and
his seven touchdowns as a pass-catcher are also most among running
backs. He has been the most consistent fantasy player outside
of quarterbacks this season and has been unquestionably the best
player who was selected in Round 1 of most fantasy drafts.
This last time these teams played, Charles had one of his best
fantasy games of the year with 157 total yards and two touchdowns.
The best part about Charles has been that he has produced even
when his team has lost games, which is something that is very
rare from the running back position. Normally Charles is an every
week, no-brainer starter. But not this week. Reports are that
Charles will receive a “limited workload” which makes
sense with the Chiefs having clinched a wild card playoff berth
without the opportunity to improve their positioning. With Charles
only likely to be on the field for a few series, the team will
likely turn to backup Knile Davis. Davis has not been anywhere
near as productive as Charles this year, averaging just 3.7 yards
per carry, but given that he is a good candidate to take 20+ carries
this week, he can be elevated to a solid RB2.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 50 pass yds, 1 TD, 10 rush yds
Chase Daniel: 125 pass yds, 1 INT
Knile Davis: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Junior Hemingway: 35 rec yds
Donnie Avery: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: A win kept the San Diego Chargers’
playoff prayers alive, but fantasy owners could not have been
happy with quarterback Philip Rivers as he delivered his worst
fantasy days of the season in the finals of most fantasy leagues.
Against a horrible Oakland defense that had just given up five
touchdown passes to Alex Smith the week before, Rivers threw for
just 201 yards and one touchdown while throwing an interception
and losing a fumble. Wide receiver Keenan Allen added to his potential
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year resume with a touchdown. Unfortunately
it was also his second straight game with fewer than 30 yards
receiving and his third straight with fewer than 60 yards.
The Chargers have an intriguing matchup this week as they host
a Kansas City team that doesn’t have anything to play for
and thus may rest a good number of their starters. The unit has
been good on the year overall but they have been significantly
worse in recent weeks. Over their past five games, the Chiefs
have surrendered 12 passing touchdowns, including three when they
played Rivers back in Week 12. Rivers threw for 392 yards that
day, which was the second-worst day that the Kansas City defense
has had this year. The Chargers are in a must-win situation to
keep their slim playoff hopes alive, so expect to see them come
out and do everything they can to walk away with a win. He was
disappointing last week, but Rivers is still a firm QB1 in Week
17.
Running Game Thoughts: The bounce-back year for running back
Ryan Mathews continued this past week as the running back had
his third straight game with a touchdown. Although he fell one
yard short of also making it three straight games with 100-plus
rushing yards, he still came through in the clutch for his fantasy
owners. It’s been a crazy ride for the back who was considered
almost undraftable in many leagues, who then entered into a timeshare
and is now one of the top-12 fantasy running backs in standard
scoring leagues. Fellow running back Danny Woodhead has seen his
value shrink significantly since his early-season PPR explosion
but those looking for a bright spot can look at his season-high
52 rushing yards against the Raiders this past week. Unfortunately
the thing that made Woodhead most value, his pass-catching, has
taken a significant step back as of late. He has now not caught
more than five passes in any game since Week 9 and is really only
a low-level FLEX play when he and Mathews are both healthy.
The real question this week is whether Woodhead will take over
as the lead back this week as the Chargers host the Chiefs. Mathews
has not practiced this week as of Thursday and although the coaching
staff has said that they expect him to play, it would not be all
that surprising to see him take a lower percentage of snaps than
he normally does. If Mathews does play, he and Woodhead do have
a surprisingly juicy matchup against a Kansas City run defense
that has been terrible as of late. They’ve allowed an average
of 119 rushing yards over their past seven games, including allowing
130 yards and a touchdown to the mediocre Colts’ running
backs in Week 16. When these teams played back in Week 12, Mathews
ran for 55 yards and a touchdown while Woodhead added 25 rushing
yards and a touchdown and 45 yards and a touchdown as a receiver.
Both players had excellent fantasy days and could be in line for
more of the same this week. Pay attention on Sunday morning to
see Mathews’ status, but this is an enticing matchup.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 30 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Keenan Allen: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Brown: 40 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Chargers 30, Chiefs 17 ^ Top
49ers at Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The improved
play of San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick continued this
past week as he threw for an efficient 197 yards and a touchdown
while also rushing for 51 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Michael
Crabtree continued to improve, catching five passes for a season-high
102 yards while fellow wideout Anquan Boldin caught six passes
for 72 yards and his sixth score of the season. The real disappointment
came in the form of tight end Vernon Davis who was held without
a catch for the second time this season. Although Davis is still
the No. 2 fantasy tight end on the year and a must-start again
this week, his scoreless game in the fantasy championship round
for most leagues illustrates just how inconsistent and frustrating
the tight end position can be.
This week the 49ers have what could be a very tough match against
an Arizona defense that that looked absolutely outstanding in
an astonishing road win over the Seahawks in Week 16. The Cardinals
held Russell Wilson to just 108 yards passing and one touchdown
while also intercepting him once, his worst fantasy day of the
season. Things were looking rough for this defense as they allowed
Ryan Fitzpatrick to torch them for 402 yards and four touchdowns
in their first game without rookie cornerback Tyrann Mathieu but
they quickly got back to business. Earlier this season, Kaepernick
threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals but
also threw an interception and fumbled the ball once. In that
game, it was tight end Vernon Davis who exploited a historically
bad Arizona defense against opposing tight ends, when he caught
eight passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Davis is perhaps
the top tight end option in all of fantasy football this week
and even though he is coming off of a week to forget, he has the
kind of matchup that can nearly single-handedly win your fantasy
matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: After three games in a row where he rushed
for fewer than 50 yards in Weeks 11, 12 and 13, San Francisco
49ers running back Frank Gore has now rushed for an average of
98 yards per game in each of his past three games. It hasn’t
been fluky either, as Gore has been taking a good number of carries.
His 60 carries over a three game span are a very good number and
make him a likely candidate to continue production as we head
into Week 17 and the playoffs. San Francisco can still improve
their playoff positioning so fantasy owners won’t have to
worry much about the team resting their starters and that should
mean plenty of action and a good possibility for some decent fantasy
production from Gore.
When these two teams matched up back in Week 6, Gore had a nice
day of 101 rushing yards on 25 carries. On the day, the Cardinals
allowed a total of 122 rushing yards to the 49ers’ backs.
That sounds like a fairly average day for some teams, but for
Arizona, it was their worst day of the year. In fact, Arizona’s
defense has only allowed more than 100 rushing yards to opposing
running backs in two total games this season. In their past eight
games, the Cardinals are allowing fewer than 50 rushing yards
per game and they’ve allowed just two rushing scores in
that entire span. On the year, Arizona has the best run defense
in the entire league and we can expect them to show up ready to
play on Sunday as they hope to sneak into the playoffs. Although
this is the best fantasy run defense in the league, Gore still
should be in most fantasy lineups just because of his projected
workload. Play Gore as a mid-to-low-end RB2 or as a solid FLEX
option this week.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 30 rush yds
Frank Gore: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Michael Crabtree: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 40 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: If I told you that Carson Palmer would throw
for 178 yards and only one touchdown while throwing four interceptions
in Seattle, and that his team would somehow win, you would call
me crazy. But that’s exactly what happened in Week 16 as
the Arizona defense bailed out the veteran QB. His bad day was
felt by the two top receivers on the team, Larry Fitzgerald and
Michael Crabtree, as they were held to a combined 49 yards receiving
on the day. Although Floyd’s one catch did go for a touchdown
which at least saved his fantasy day, Fitzgerald’s 18 yards
on three catches were a huge disappointment for fantasy owners.
After scoring five touchdowns in a four game span from Week 11
to Week 14, Fitzgerald has now been held out of the end zone in
back-to-back weeks, which may lead some to not trust him in Week
17.
Although his fantasy owners won’t forgive him for what
he did to them in their fantasy playoffs, Palmer’s horrific
day can be somewhat overlooked as we go into Week 17 as he has
actually been fairly good in the second half of the season. If
we can look past his dreadful day an excellent Seattle secondary,
Palmer had been in double-digit fantasy totals every week since
he played San Francisco back in Week 6. Fitzgerald also had a
nice day when these teams met as he caught six passes for a season-high
117 yards and a touchdown; one of his best overall fantasy days
of the year. Michael Floyd also had a productive fantasy day against
the 49ers as he also caught a touchdown, his first of the year.
The San Francisco defense has been very good against opposing
passing games through most of the year, though, as they have held
opposing quarterbacks to 15 or fewer fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks in all but three of their games this season. This
isn’t a great matchup for the Cardinals passing game, but
they’ve shown in their previous game that they are not incapable
of producing against this defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Arizona running back Rashard Mendenhall
matched his season high from two weeks ago with 21 carries against
the Seahawks in Week 16. After taking just an average of 13 carries
per game over his first 10 games of the season, Mendenhall has
now averaged over 19 carries per game in his past four contests.
Not surprisingly, his fantasy production has also increased over
that span, and he has now moved up to being an RB2 given his significant
workload. Meanwhile fellow running back Andre Ellington has also
seen his value rise. Ellington tied a season-high with 15 carries
in the Cardinals’ win over the Seahawks a week ago. The
truth is that Ellington is by far the more effective back of the
two and has out-produced Mendenhall on a per-carry basis in almost
every week, but the team just doesn’t trust him to be their
primary ball carrier at this point.
This true backfield timeshare has been irritating for fantasy
owners who have struggled with trying to figure out who to place
into their lineups and it doesn’t get much easier as they
host a San Francisco 49ers defense that has allowed just two rushing
touchdowns over their past five games. Not only that, but they
have not allowed a team to reach 100 rushing yards against them
since all the way back in Week 6. On the bright side, the team
that did it was these very Arizona Cardinals when Mendenhall rushed
for 40 yards and Ellington added 56 yards and a touchdown. Ellington
also added 36 yards as a receiver in that contest, which has been
one of his biggest attributes throughout the season. Although
Ellington is the more dynamic talent and could see a good number
of touches this week, Mendenhall is the better fantasy play this
week as he is the more sure thing to see 15-plus touches. He might
not do a lot with them, but if he can sneak into the end zone,
he could make fantasy owners very happy.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 215 pass yds, 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Andre Ellington: 35 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 21, Cardinals 20 ^ Top
Broncos at Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: If you’re
looking for your fantasy football MVP for the 2013 season, look
no further Peyton Manning. From the very first week of the season
when he threw seven touchdowns to this past week when he tossed
four more, and all of the others between, Manning has been absolutely
unbelievable all year. His 51 touchdowns are already an NFL record
as he broke Tom Brady’s 50-score mark, and the Broncos QB
still has another game to go. With Manning’s success has
come monster seasons for numerous Denver receivers. Eric Decker
is coming off of one of his best games of the season where he
caught 10 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns while Demaryius
Thomas added eight receptions for 123 yards and a score of his
own against the Texans in Week 16. Tight end Julius Thomas is
also amidst an incredible breakout season and he continued it
into the fantasy championship week where he caught six passes
for 78 yards and his 12th touchdown reception of the season.
Wes Welker being out with a concussion has not seemed to affect
this offense anywhere near as much as we expected and there’s
really no reason to believe that it will in Week 17 when the Broncos
head to Oakland. The Raiders have been awful against the pass
this season and are the victims of two of the worst games allowed
to opposing quarterbacks of any team this year, when they allowed
Nick Foles to throw for seven touchdowns against them in Week
9 and then Alex Smith to throw for five in Week 15. When the Raiders
went to Denver earlier this season, they allowed Peyton Manning
to throw for 374 yards and three scores, which included touchdowns
to Julius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker. Demaryius Thomas
was held out of the end zone that day, but he wasn’t quiet.
Thomas caught a season-high 10 passes for 94 yards against the
Raiders and remains one of the very best fantasy WR1’s in
the business as we head into Week 17. As usual, play your Broncos.
There’s a chance that the team rests their starters in the
second half of this game, but that would only be if they get up
many scores, in which case your players have probably done plenty
of damage anyway.
Running Game Thoughts: It looked like an excellent matchup for
the Denver running backs Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball as they
went into Houston to beat up on the humiliatingly bad Texans,
but things didn’t exactly work out like that this past Sunday.
Although the duo rushed for a combined 108 yards on the day, it
was once again the Peyton Manning show on the scoreboard as the
quarterback threw four touchdowns, which held Moreno and Ball
out of the end zone for the second straight week. The back-to-back
games of under 10 fantasy points (standard scoring) that Moreno
has had were the first time he has done so this season and without
an injury to speak of, that has to be a bit disappointing for
fantasy owners who may have been relying on him for a big game
in their championship week. Still, it’s hard to be too upset
with Moreno who went undrafted in many leagues before the season
and currently sits as a top five fantasy running back regardless
of the scoring format as we head into the final week of the season.
Moreno should see an increase of touches this week with Peyton
Manning having already eclipsed the NFL’s single season
touchdown record. The Broncos will head to Oakland to face a team
that they beat up on earlier this season. Denver ran the ball
a total of 32 times with their three-headed-monster of Moreno,
Ball and Hillman. With Hillman now only utilized in mop-up duty
and Ball only getting around 30 percent of the carries, it looks
fairly likely that we will see plenty of Moreno this week in what
should be another big Denver win as they look to clinch the top
seed in the AFC playoff picture. Moreno did only run for 39 yard
on 12 carries when he played the Raiders earlier this year, which
ended up being his worst fantasy game of the season, but there
is plenty to like about this matchup. The Raiders have allowed
the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season
and have allowed a total of 11 touchdowns to the position over
just their past four games. Moreno is a good bet for a nice day
and Ball may even be worth a FLEX play this week given the likelihood
of a blowout.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 325 pass yds, 3 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Montee Ball: 30 rush yds, 1 TD
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Caldwell: 30 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The back-and-forth situation that has been
the Oakland Raiders quarterback situation will continue again
this week as the team goes back to their original starter, Terrelle
Pryor, to wrap up the season. Matt McGloin had thrown seven interceptions
and only four touchdowns over his past four starts, so it’s
not particularly surprising to see the team turn away from him,
but it’s not as if Pryor had been much better from a real-life
NFL standpoint. Still, fantasy owners who have made it this far
but are staring at bad quarterback matchup may have to take a
closer look at the dynamic Oakland signal-caller. Despite having
played significant snaps in only eight games this season, Pryor
is second among all quarterbacks in rushing yards and is only
13 yards behind the leader, Russell Wilson, in that category.
He may not be much of a passer, but the fact that he averaged
63 rushing yards per start cannot be overlooked. If he had stayed
on that pace and remained the starter throughout the season without
getting hurt, Pryor would have had a real shot to become just
the second quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards
in a season (Mike Vick being the other). Those rushing numbers
alone can make a player a viable fantasy option at running back,
but when you consider that Pryor was also adding at least some
stats in the passing categories, he was actually a fairly viable
fantasy option most weeks.
He’ll need to be great this week, though, if the Raiders
hope to have a chance against the AFC’s current top playoff
seed, the Denver Broncos. Pryor had one of his best fantasy days
of the season earlier this year when these teams played back in
Week 3, as he threw for a season-high 281 yards and a touchdown
while also rushing for 36 yards. With the Broncos now missing
top pass-rusher Von Miller, Pryor may have time to find players
in the passing game, which could lead to another decent fantasy
day. The Broncos haven’t been great against opposing quarterbacks
this season, having allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the
position on the year and the weak schedule they’ve played
against in recent weeks has helped them look better than they
probably are from a defensive standpoint. Still, it’s going
to be hard to trust Pryor for fantasy purposes because he is the
kind of player who is absolutely capable of dropping a complete
egg. With Pryor’s inconsistency, it’s also almost
impossible to believe that any of the Oakland pass-catchers could
be considered anything other than a low-end FLEX option.
Running Game Thoughts: It was a light workout for running back
Darren McFadden in his first game back as the former first round
NFL draft pick was held to just eight yards on four carries in
a loss to the Chargers. Although he did get into the end zone,
it wasn’t enough to make him a very good fantasy play and
it unfortunately was enough to also make Rashad Jennings a weak
fantasy play. Jennings had been one of the best fantasy backs
in the league since McFadden’s injury, but was held to just
45 yards rushing on 10 carries, his lowest total in a game he
started since Week 8. With McFadden expected to take at least
a slightly bigger workload in Week 17 and Marcel Reece still a
factor, there just isn’t a lot to love right now about this
Oakland backfield from a fantasy standpoint.
The Denver run defense has been weak against the run through
most of the season, having allowed at least one rushing touchdown
in all but three of their games so far in 2013. Although they’ve
only allowed one opposing team’s group of running backs
to rush for more than one touchdown in a game, this is still the
kind of matchup that has produced at least some sort of fantasy
production in almost every game this year. Denver’s 17.8
points per game allowed (standard scoring) to the running back
position is 22nd in the league. Still, there is some concern when
it comes to this matchup as the Raiders did not do well on the
ground when these teams played back in Week 3. During that game,
the Oakland running backs were only able to rush for nine total
yards on 12 carries and although McFadden scored a touchdown as
a runner and Marcel Reece scored a touchdown as a receiver, that’s
not the kind of historical production that you’d like to
see if you’re planning on trusting one of these players
for fantasy purposes. Given the unsure nature of the carry split
in Oakland, fantasy owners would be wise to avoid this situation
if at all possible. If you have to make a decision, it seems most
likely that Jennings will take the most carries in this game,
followed by McFadden and finally Reece. Still, none of these players
is a particularly strong play. This could be an ugly game very
early which could lead to the Raiders moving to a pass-heavy attack
on offense as they look to evaluate Pryor for the 2014 season.
Projections:
Terrelle Pryor: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 60 rush yds
Rashad Jennings: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Darren McFadden: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Denarius Moore: 40 rec yds
Rod Streater: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Broncos 41, Raiders 23 ^ Top
Rams at Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: With the
Rams having won back-to-back games over the Saints and Buccaneers,
one would expect that they would be getting some serious production
out of their quarterback position in order to put up enough points
to compete. But that hasn’t really been the case. Kellen
Clemens has thrown for exactly 158 yards in each of his past two
games, and threw just two touchdowns against the Saints and none
against the Bucs. Still, what he has done in those two contests
is avoid turning the ball over. He didn’t throw an interception
in either contest, which has helped the Rams control the ball
and the clock. Unfortunately that hasn’t translated into
much fantasy production for he or any of the St. Louis wide receivers.
With rookie Tavon Austin missing Week 16 due to an ankle injury,
it was fellow rookie Stedman Bailey who stepped up, catching three
passes for 44 yards and adding a 27-yard run touchdown run on
a double-reverse.
Neither Clemens, Bailey or any of the other players in the St.
Louis passing game should be considered this week as the team
heads to Seattle to face one of the very best defenses in the
league. Seattle’s 8.5 points per game (standard scoring)
allowed to the quarterback position are a full 2.2 points per
game better than any other team in the league. They lead the league
in essentially every possible statistic. Their 192 yards per game
allowed is best in the NFL, their 14 passing touchdowns allowed
are best in the NFL and their 26 interceptions forced are four
more than any other team. Needless to say, with Clemens having
only broken 220 passing yards once this season and no receiver
breaking out, this is one of the worst possible fantasy matchups
for any team. Don’t expect much of anything out of this
passing game. Clemens isn’t even a QB2 option this week,
so look elsewhere for a player who at least has some sort of upside.
Running Game Thoughts: With his second straight 100 yard rushing
day coming a week ago in a win over the Buccaneers, rookie running
back Zac Stacy is now making a case for NFL Offensive Rookie of
the Year. Stacy is just 42 yards away from a 1000-yard rushing
season, and he trails only Eddie Lacy among rookies in rushing
yardage despite having taken only one total carry in the first
four games of the season combined. His consistent ability to move
the ball on the ground has been a blessing for a St. Louis offense
that has really struggled to pass the ball since Sam Bradford’s
season-ending injury. If he can get into the end zone just one
more time to make it nine total touchdowns on the year, Stacy
will have more than any St. Louis running back has had since 2006.
Not too bad for a rookie.
A lot of pressure will be put on Stacy this week as the St.
Louis passing game is expected to be on lockdown from this incredible
Seattle secondary. Stacy rushed for more yards (134) in Week 8
against the Seahawks than he has in any other game this season,
which should give fantasy owners at least some shred of confidence
as they head into Week 17. Still, it is worth considering that
as good as Stacy looked against this defense when they played
earlier, Seattle has only gotten better defensively. It has now
been eight games since the Seattle defense has allowed an opposing
running back to rush for a touchdown. This is a tough matchup
and although it took him 26 carries to get there when they played
before, the 134 rushing yards is something that can’t be
overlooked. Stacy is a solid RB2 option this week, as he has been
throughout most of the season.
Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 130 pass yds, 2 INT
Zac Stacy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Stedman Bailey: 40 rec yds
Jared Cook: 30 rec yds
Chris Givens: 25 rec yds
Austin Pettis: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners who played their championship
game in Week 16 have to be disappointed in the despicable performance
that Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense put on the field
this past Sunday. Wilson threw for just 108 yards and one touchdown
with an interception, adding 32 yards as a runner. It was Wilson’s
worst passing yardage performance since coming into the NFL in
2012 and it came at the worst possible time. As is to be expected
with Wilson’s struggles in the passing game, no Seattle
receiver was even fantasy relevant in Week 16. Most notably, Doug
Baldwin, the team’s leading receiver on the season, was
held to just one catch for eight yards; a big disappointment for
those who took a chance on him. Baldwin had been somewhat hot
as of late with four 12-plus point (standard scoring) games over
his past six contests, but his goose-egg in Week 16 helps illustrate
why it can be dangerous to trust players like Baldwin who have
significantly over-produced their expectations.
Those who play in Week 17 and somehow scraped by to make it
to their championship game despite Wilson’s egg could be
happy this week, though, as the team plays host to a St. Louis
defense that he threw two touchdowns against back in Week 8. Although
he threw for only 139 yards in that contest, there is more to
be excited about. Wilson had a beautiful fantasy day when these
teams met back in Week 17 of the 2012 season as he threw for 250
yards and a touchdown while adding another 58 yards and a touchdown
on the ground. This isn’t an excellent matchup, especially
given the pass rush that Seattle allowed when these teams played
before (seven sacks), but with Seattle needing a win to lockup
their top seed in the NFC playoffs and secure themselves homefield
advantage throughout, expect them to go all out in this one.
Running Game Thoughts: Even in a home loss where his team scored
just 10 offensive points, Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch
showed exactly why he is so valuable for fantasy purposes. Lynch’s
18 carries for 71 yards are nothing special, but the fact that
he didn’t completely kill his fantasy owners in a loss against
the No. 1 fantasy run defense in the league has to be a confidence
boost for those who are looking at him in Week 17. Lynch has been
one of the most consistent backs in all of fantasy football since
coming to Seattle and his 13 total touchdowns are second only
to Jamaal Charles. Lynch will likely finish again as a top five
fantasy running back and has been the kind of rock solid play
that will be on many championship fantasy rosters this season.
If you trusted Lynch this past week, you are likely about to
be paid off in Week 17 as Lynch and the Seahawks go up against
the NFL’s 27th-ranked fantasy run defense. St. Louis has
been dreadful against opposing running backs this year, averaging
148 total yards per game allowed to the position. They’ve
also been one of the very worst at keeping running backs out of
the end zone, as they have allowed 17 touchdowns to the position
on the year; which translates out to more than one per game. Those
numbers alone would make Marshawn Lynch perhaps the top running
back option for Week 17, but we do have to look at the previous
meeting these teams had. When Seattle visited St. Louis back in
Week 8, Lynch was held to just 23 yards on eight carries. The
Seahawks ran just 33 total offensive plays in that game as they
narrowly squeaked out a 14-9 victory on the road. St. Louis nearly
doubled the time of possession that Seattle had in that contest,
which is an incredible anomaly. That won’t happen again
this week and Lynch will likely be relied on heavily, as he typically
is, to get his team a win. Fantasy owners should trust in “Beast
Mode” and ride him to a fantasy championship.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 210 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 13 ^ Top
Panthers at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton
didn’t tear it up last week in his team’s win over
the Saints, but his lone touchdown pass came when it mattered
– the waning seconds to help his team overcome a deficit
and pull out a win. He was without Steve Smith for much of the
game, and Smith will be out again this week, but Newton is still
a must-start and tight end Greg Olsen should also be considered
as the Panthers travel to Atlanta.
The Falcons are ranked 25th against the pass and have allowed
the third-most touchdown throws in the NFL. They have given up
the fifth-most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks, the
seventh-most points to wideouts and the 12th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart will not play this week,
meaning the pigskin will once again be carried by the triumvirate
of Newton, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert. Tolbert got only
a single carry last week and has not been very productive lately,
but Williams is certainly worth a flex play for fantasy owners
versus the Falcons. Atlanta is 31st in the NFL in both run defense
and YPC allowed, rank 20th in rushing scores surrendered, and
have given up the seventh-most fantasy points in the league to
running backs.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Greg Olsen: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 55 rec yds
Ted
Ginn, Jr.: 35 rec yds
DeAngelo Williams: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Mike Tolbert: 35 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan’s
season has mostly been a disappointment but at least fantasy owners
got some big production out of one of his weapons, Roddy White,
last week though it was likely too little too late for most of
those owners considering White was probably a high pick. Ryan
and White may not be the best fantasy options this week, though
Tony Gonzalez should still be considered a starter against the
Panthers.
Carolina is seventh in the NFL in pass defense, but tied with
two other teams for fewest touchdown passes surrendered. They
have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points in the league to
quarterbacks and the third-fewest to wide receivers, but the 13th-most
fantasy points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson scored his sixth rushing
touchdown of the season last week, and the two from the previous
week give him three over his last two games. It’ll be tough
sledding for him against Carolina but fantasy owners shouldn’t
count out a score from the big bruiser. The Panthers are second
in the NFL against the run, 11th in YPC allowed, tied for first
in rushing scores allowed, and have given up the second-fewest
fantasy points in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tony Gonzalez: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 70 rec yds
Harry Douglas: 45 rec yds
Steven Jackson: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 17 ^ Top
Texans at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: As of this
writing, it still wasn’t clear whether or not Houston would
roll out Matt Schaub or Case Keenum as the starting quarterback
against Tennessee. Really, however, it doesn’t matter, as
neither player is fantasy-worthy. The only player in the Texans’
passing attack that is would be Andre Johnson, though he’s
nursing an injury and his status should be checked before fantasy
owners insert him into their lineups as Johnson prepares to take
on the Titans.
Tennessee is one of the three teams in the league that is tied
for fewest touchdown passes allowed while also ranking 10th in
pass defense. They have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points
in the NFL to quarterbacks and second-fewest to wideouts, but
the eighth-most fantasy points to players at the tight end position.
Running Game Thoughts: Dennis Johnson led Houston in carries last
week in Denver and did very little with them, gaining 29 yards
on 12 totes. Deji Karim and Jonathan Grimes also got some work,
but none did much and despite the excellent match-up with Tennessee,
fantasy owners should probably avoid all of these runners. The
Titans rank 20th in the NFL in rush defense, 18th in YPC allowed,
30th in rushing scores surrendered and have allowed more fantasy
points to running backs than all but three other teams.
Projections:
Case Keenum: 205 pass yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
Andre Johnson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Ryan Griffin: 55 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 40 rec yds
Keshawn Martin: 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Grimes: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick
has been a serviceable back-up, though that should mean little
to fantasy owners, who shouldn’t have used him except as
a fill-in. What should be noticeable for fantasy owners is that
Fitzpatrick continued to get the ball to Kendall Wright and most
recently Nate Washington, who now has two games in a row with
more than 90 receiving yards. Houston does not give up a lot of
passing yards, but does allow scores and Wright and Washington
should be prime candidates to get in the end zone.
The Texans may be third in the NFL in pass defense, but there
are only two teams in football that have ceded more touchdown
passes. Still, they have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points
to quarterbacks and the ninth-fewest to wideouts while ranking
15th in fantasy points given up to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Both Shonn Greene and Chris Johnson got
at least 90 rushing yards last week against the soft Jacksonville
run defense. Johnson, despite his ups and downs, should be a RB2
this week against another weak run defense. Houston is 24th in
the NFL against the run, 23rd in YPC allowed, 12th in rushing
scores given up, and have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points
in the league to running backs this season.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Kendall Wright: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Nate Washington: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Delanie Walker: 35 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 45 rush yds
Prediction: Tennessee 21, Texans 17 ^ Top
Jaguars at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Chad Henne
is a back-up quarterback who happens to be starting, but one thing
is for sure – he knows how to get the ball to Marcedes Lewis
in the end zone. The big tight end found the end zone last week
and now has a touchdown reception in four consecutive games. Though
he has a tough match-up with the Colts, it would behoove fantasy
owners to give Lewis a shot, though the same can’t be said
for any other Jaguars receiving option.
Indianapolis has the league’s 12th-ranked pass defense,
and just six teams have given up fewer touchdown throws than they
have. The Colts are 17th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks
and 14th in points allowed to wide receivers, but have allowed
the fifth-fewest points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew had a mediocre game
last week against the Titans, with only 45 yards on 13 carries,
which broke a streak of solid production. The mighty mite has
had a mostly lousy season, and should be nothing more than a flex
play for fantasy owners against Indy. The Colts are 28th in the
league against the run, 26th in YPC allowed, 20th in rushing scores
yielded, but have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points in the
league to running backs because so much of the damage done to
them on the ground earlier this season was by quarterbacks.
Projections:
Chad Henne: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Mike Brown: 70 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Clay Harbor: 35 rec yds
Ace Sanders: 30 rec yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
has been solid though unspectacular in his second season under
center for the Colts. It would probably be unfair to label him
a fantasy disappointment, but it is fair to say a bit more was
expected. Unexpected in recent games has been the play of Griff
Whalen, who scored a touchdown two weeks ago and had 80 receiving
yards last week against the Chiefs. Whalen is a decent WR3 this
week and T.Y. Hilton should have WR2 status against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is 19th in the league in pass defense, 24th in touchdown
passes surrendered, has allowed the third-most fantasy points
in the NFL to quarterbacks, the 13th-most to receivers, and the
third-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Another game, another sub-3.0 YPC average
for Trent Richardson. He ran for 2.7 YPC (43 yards on 16 rushes)
last week against the Chiefs and had a combined 58 yards on 19
touches. Meanwhile, Donald Brown had 12 touches and racked up
110 rushing and receiving yards with two touchdowns. That says
all fantasy owners need to know about which back should slot nicely
into their flex position against Jacksonville. The Jaguars own
the NFL’s third-worst rush defense, rank 28th in rushing
scores surrendered, 21st in YPC allowed, and have given up the
10th-most fantasy points in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 20 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Griff Whalen: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Da’Rick
Rogers: 35 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 20 rec yds
Donald Brown: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Jaguars 20 ^ Top
Buccaneers at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon
hasn’t had a season to remember as a rookie quarterback
for Tampa, but he has shown some promise. It would help if the
Bucs acquired another receiver or two as they have only one who
is remotely worthy fantasy consideration, and that is Vincent
Jackson. Jackson is a legit WR1, and even though he has a difficult
match-up with New Orleans, fantasy owners shouldn’t shy
away from him.
The Saints are second in the NFL against the pass, and there are
only five teams in the league who have ceded fewer touchdown passes
than they have. New Orleans has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy
points to quarterbacks, and the sixth-fewest points to both wideouts
and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Bobby Rainey found the end zone against
the Rams last week, but was otherwise shut down, rushing 20 times
and gaining a measly 37 yards. Rainey hasn’t reached 40
rushing yards in either of his last two games, but should hit
that mark this week and is a nice flex candidate for fantasy owners
against the Saints. New Orleans ranks 19th in the league in rush
defense, are 28th in YPC ceded, and 13th in rushing scores allowed
while giving up the 11th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to running
backs.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Vincent Jackson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Tim Wright: 45 rec yds
Tiquan Underwood: 30 rec yds
Bobby Rainey: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Brian Leonard: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees
has had a fantastic season, but he hurt his fantasy owners when
it counted the most, with only two touchdowns and four interceptions
in his last two games. Still, fantasy owners would be foolish
to let those numbers scare them away from using Brees this week,
who will continue to toss the rock all over the yard, and in particular
to his two favorite targets, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham,
each of whom should be fantasy starters this week against the
Bucs.
Tampa is 15th in the league in pass defense and 20th in touchdown
throws given up. They have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points
in the NFL to quarterbacks, are 16th in fantasy points ceded to
wideouts, and 18th in points yielded to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram led the team with 83 rushing
yards last week against Carolina, which is a lot more than the
six yards he gathered in his previous two games. It’s impossible
to tell just which of the Saints’ four running backs will
get the biggest workload in terms of carries, though it’s
obvious that Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles will continue to
catch the ball against Tampa. The Bucs are 17th in the NFL against
the run and in YPC allowed, but have given up the sixth-fewest
rushing scores and have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points
in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 330 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Jimmy Graham: 100 rec yds, 2 TD
Marques Colston: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 45 rec yds
Lance Moore: 35 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Mark Ingram: 30 rush yds
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Prediction: Saints 31, Buccaneers 20 ^ Top
Packers @ Bears
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The big news
here is the return of Aaron Rodgers as starting quarterback, and
not a moment too soon, as the winner of this game goes to the
playoffs and the loser goes home. While the return of Rodgers
gets a lot of people excited, as well it should, there is reason
to pause before thinking Rodgers will save the Packers or your
fantasy team all by himself. First, there is the rust factor.
As we have seen with guys like Jay Cutler this year, even great
quarterbacks need a little time to knock off the rust and Rodgers
has been out seven weeks, which is quite a long time. Secondly,
there is the game plan to consider, as the Packers will surely
not want Rodgers being hit too many times so will most likely
go more run-heavy than they normally would. Finally, there is
the opponent to consider. The Bears rushing defense is historically
bad, and with two capable running backs in Lacy and Starks, chances
are the Packers will look to take advantage of their opponent's
weakness. The Bears pass defense is not exactly elite; however,
they do rank 14th best in pass yards allowed (last in rush yards
allowed) and have picked off the eighth most passes in the NFL.
While Rodgers is obviously a big upgrade over Flynn, do not get
carried away and think for a minute that he is going to come right
back and throw 50-plus times for 400 yards and four touchdowns.
With the Bears giving up the 12th fewest fantasy points to opposing
QBs (but the most to RBs) I look for Rodgers to have a solid comeback
game, but not an elite one. I see Rodgers as a low-end QB1 in
this contest, somewhere in the 8-10 range for fantasy throwers,
which of course is good, but not where he is used to being ranked.
For his receivers there are a few things to consider. First, as
stated, I look for the Packers to go run heavy in this one to
exploit the Bears' weakness. While this does not mean they will
not throw at all, it does mean the upside of each of the receivers
is capped a bit. The good news, however, is that the return of
Rodgers should make the passing offense more efficient. For instance,
maybe Flynn would throw 45 times but only about 25 of his throws
make a real impact, whereas Rodgers may throw just 30 times but
make nearly as many throws really count. In this way, the Packers
receivers remain relatively safe options, especially Jordy Nelson,
who is Rodgers' favorite target. I see Nelson as a solid and safe
low-end WR1, also in that 8-10 range for WRs. As for the remaining
receivers, watch the injury report closely, as Randall Cobb has
a decent chance to play in this one. While I do not think Cobb
will make a significant fantasy impact in this game, he would
likely eat into James Jones' and Jarrett Boykin’s targets,
limiting their upside even further. If Cobb plays, as I expect,
I see both Jones and Boykin as solid WR3s who should be fairly
safe fantasy plays. If Cobb sits out I would bump up Jones to
a low-level WR2 and Boykin to a high-level WR3. In either case
I would not risk using Cobb if he does indeed play. Finally, tight
end Andrew Quarless has had some nice weeks lately, and with the
Bears giving up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing TEs,
he’s probably worth a look as a mid-range TE2 (14-16 range
for TEs) regardless of whether Cobb plays.
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers injury report is perhaps the
most crucial of all teams to watch, not only for Rodgers' status,
but also because the running back situation is huge in both NFL
and fantasy terms. Currently Eddie Lacy, the Packers' starter,
is questionable with an ankle injury, one that he re-aggravated
last week and that forced him out of the game in the third quarter.
Lacy has not been practicing all week, and while it is certainly
possible he plays without practicing, he will most likely be limited
if he does suit up. The reason this is such a huge deal is that
the Bears run defense is awful. The Bears are currently allowing
5.4 yards per carry, which is the sixth worst in NFL history.
The Bears have been gashed this year by studs like Adrian Peterson
(211 yds), backup running backs like Benny Cunningham (109 yds,
1 TD), and just about everyone in between (Brandon Jacobs for
example: 106 yds, 2 TDs).
With the seventh best rushing attack in the NFL, the Packers have
an excellent chance to run all over the Bears, and will almost
certainly lean heavily on the run regardless of who is under center
and who is carrying the rock. With the Bears giving up the most
fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs, this is an absolute
dream matchup for the Packers, with the only real concern being
that it is an away game against a division rival and the Bears
offense has a chance to make the Packers play catch-up. Even with
these things possibly going against them, just one half of football
could be enough for one or more Green Bay backs to make a significant
impact. With so much on the line (in this game and in fantasy),
starting a Packers RB in this matchup is a smart move. If Lacy
starts I like him as a moderate risk (because of injury) but a
huge-upside RB1, in the top five for the position. Even if Lacy
starts I still like backup James Starks as a solid flex/RB3 guy
in a game where he could actually score points like an RB2, but
his upside would be capped by Lacy’s presence. If Lacy sits
this one out I like Starks as a solid RB1, certainly in the top
10 for the position. Overall, watch the injury report and plan
accordingly, but chances are, if you have one of these guys on
your roster, you should start him.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Eddie Lacy: 110 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
James Starks: 70 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
James Jones: 55 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 55 rec yds
Randall Cobb: 30 rec yds
Jarrett Boykin: 55 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: In a winner-take-all
scenario, the Bears passing game will be amped up at home and
looking to be at least as successful as they were when they beat
the Packers in Green Bay a month and a half ago. In that game
Josh McCown threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns, while taking
just one sack. This week the game will be at home and Jay Cutler
will be the Bears' quarterback, but the strategy will likely be
similar: get the ball outside to Marshall and Jeffery, who totaled
22 targets, 12 receptions, 167 yards, and two touchdowns in the
previous game against the Packers. The Packers have given up the
11th most passing yards in the league thus far this season and
have allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns. Despite only
picking off 10 passes (27th in the NFL), the Packers rank eighth
in sacks, although they will likely be without their best pass-rusher,
Clay Matthews. In fantasy terms, the Packers defense is among
the 11 most generous teams to opposing QBs, WRs, and TEs and have
given up two or more passing touchdowns in four straight games
and at least one passing touchdown in eight straight games. In
addition, the Packers have given up five 300-plus yard passing
games this season and four of those five games were on the road.
While Cutler still looks rusty, this will be his third straight
week back and he should be nearly back to pre-injury form by now.
With extremely talented weapons around him Cutler should be a
solid source of fantasy points, especially if the game turns into
a shootout, which is certainly possible given the two teams' defenses.
With a capable backup behind him, starting Cutler does not have
100 percent security, but unless he totally flops in the first
half, he is likely to play the entire game in this important matchup.
I view Cutler as a solid QB1, somewhere in that 7-10 range for
QBs, as a guy that comes with a slight risk but also vast amounts
of upside thanks to his weapons, the matchup, and what is at stake.
Speaking of his weapons, both Marshall and Jeffery should be viewed
as WR1s, and basically equal in value, although Cutler seems to
prefer Marshall slightly. Both guys will see a ton of balls thrown
their way and it would be surprising if they both did not finish
among the top 15 WRs in the fantasy world. Finally, the only other
option in the passing game is tight end Martellus Bennett, and
while he has been up and down, and mostly just above average all
year, he had a great game last week (8 targets, 85 yards) and
as far as TEs go, has to be considered among the top 12 in a must-win
game against a defense that will have their hands full on the
outside. Overall, this unit is in for a big day in their biggest
and most important game of the regular season, so start them if
you got them.
Running Game Thoughts: Playing from way behind early and asked
to stay in to pass block more than usual, Matt Forte was mostly
worthless last week as a fantasy option. But in a home game where
the stakes are high, it is likely the Bears lean heavily on one
of their most effective weapons. With all the press that the Bears
run defense gets as being awful, the Packers are not exactly shutting
down opposing running backs at will either. Currently they have
given up the seventh most rush yards in the NFL and have allowed
a healthy 4.6 yards per carry average, fourth highest in the league.
Other than a home game against a weak Falcons run game a few weeks
back, the Packers have allowed four huge fantasy days in a row
to opposing backs, including last week where Steelers running
back Le’Veon Bell gashed them for 124 yards and a touchdown
on the ground in a home loss.
With Clay Mathews likely out, the Packers are a thin defense that
lacks true playmakers and struggles with any team that can run
the ball consistently. With the Packers safeties worried about
two huge wide receivers (Marshall and Jeffery), it will be nearly
impossible to bring extra guys down in to the box, giving Forte
all the room he needs. With the Packers giving up the 10th most
fantasy points to opposing RBs, Forte should be counted on as
a near-elite RB1 in this game. With the playoffs on the line I
fully expect Forte to play the whole game and total 20-plus touches
easily. If you are still playing meaningful fantasy games at this
point in the season, Forte should be on your short list of RBs
to start and count on for big numbers. Michael Bush is still just
a handcuff in fantasy and therefore worthless as a starter.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 300 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Matt Forte: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 55 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 30, Packers 28 ^ Top
Ravens @ Bengals
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: With both
the Ravens and Bengals still having things to play for, expect
this to be a no-holds-barred kind of game where each team should
play their normal starters. What stands out about this matchup,
from the Ravens perspective, is the ineffectiveness of Joe Flacco
this year. Flacco is having a career-worst year and even in good
matchups he has often struggled. Despite having some solid weapons
and a pass-first attack, Flacco remains outside of the top 15
QBs in most fantasy leagues and his recent struggles have not
helped his cause. While still recovering from knee soreness that
seemed to hamper him last week, Flacco is even more hands-off
than usual. What’s worse for Flacco is that playing in Cincinnati
will surely not be the cure-all for what has been hurting this
offense, as the Bengals are a strong defensive team. Currently
they have given up the sixth fewest passing yards in the NFL and
rank among the 10 best teams in completion percentage allowed,
yards per pass attempt allowed, and interceptions, while being
tied for 11th in sacks. Overall this is a scary team for opposing
quarterbacks to face, ranking as the seventh toughest in terms
of fantasy points scored.
As Flacco is showing little all year, and almost nothing the past
few games, needless to say, he should be avoided in fantasy circles,
as he is not a top 15 option. As for the Ravens receivers, there
is certainly some skill and of value, but all should be downgraded
because of the matchup and Flacco’s poor play recently.
Torrey Smith has had a great career year overall and looks like
an up and coming star; however, he is not scoring a lot of touchdowns
(just four on the year), and despite having fairly consistent
targets and catches, has not had a 100-yard game since Week 5.
Smith’s final numbers on the year will look pretty good,
but he is a low-end WR2 at best on a struggling offense. Both
Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown continue to be non-factors as far
as fantasy goes, basically canceling each other out each week
and neither being anywhere close to consistent enough to be considered
more than shaky boom-or-bust WR4s. Thus, the only remaining Ravens
receiver worth talking about is tight end Dennis Pitta, who has
actually decreased his production since he returned from injury
a few weeks ago. While Pitta is still getting a decent amount
of looks, he is nothing more than a mid-level TE2 for this final
week of the regular season. Overall, this team is hampered by
a poor offensive line, shaky quarterback play, and a tough matchup,
so fantasy points may be hard to come by.
Running Game Thoughts: With so much on the line in hostile territory
and against a tough opponent, this is not a good week to get cute
and think about relying on Ray Rice and the Ravens weak running
attack. Rice was held to just 40 yards on the ground last week
as the Ravens were forced to play catch-up against the Patriots
for almost the whole game. For Rice, last week was the ninth time
this year he has been held to 40 yards or less on the ground,
and while he has actually looked better in recent weeks, the Ravens
offense in general, the play-calling, and the blocking have all
been so bad or inconsistent that it is virtually impossible to
trust Rice at this point unless it was a dream matchup. The Bengals,
as you may be aware, are nowhere near a dream matchup, especially
with something still left to play for. Although they may be without
their leading tackler, linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion),
the Bengals have overcome numerous injuries on their defense yet
remain a near-elite defense. They have allowed the sixth fewest
rush yards in the NFL and are fourth best in the league in rushing
touchdowns allowed, with six.
If that did not scare you enough from using Rice, try the fact
that the Bengals have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points
to opposing RBs on the year and have allowed just one running
back to rush in a score in the past 11 games. While Rice does
get involved in the pass game, and the Bengals are among the six
teams to allow 85-plus catches to opposing running backs on the
year, the Ravens offense is not explosive enough for Rice to truly
take advantage of this, as he has yet to register a receiving
touchdown and has topped 40 yards receiving just once this season.
If you have gotten to this point in the fantasy season and are
still playing meaningful games, chances are that Rice is not on
your team or is firmly placed on your bench. Although Rice will
be giving it his all in a must-win game, he is simply a mid-level
RB3/flex option here. Bernard Pierce is off the radar again this
week, as Rice is healthy and Pierce has shown little in the chances
he has received.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Torrey Smith: 70 rec yds
Ray Rice: 45 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Dennis Pitta: 50 rec yds
Marlon Brown: 45 rec yds
Jacoby Jones: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It was basically
a dream matchup last week, but it was a good sign that Andy Dalton
did not choke against the Vikings, putting up a monster 366 yards
and four touchdowns, with no interceptions. Dalton is having a
nice year overall but his numbers are skewed, as he has had a
few monster games (like last week) but also a handful of awful
games where he almost single-handedly lost the game for the Bengals.
Dalton has been up and down recently and has a reputation for
folding in the season’s second half, but certainly has some
momentum from last week, and in a home contest with something
meaningful to play for, might be worth a closer look. The matchup
is not a great one, as the Ravens have given up the 11th fewest
passing yards, allowed the third lowest completion percentage,
and registered the 13th most sacks in the league. The Ravens have
a quality pass rush, a solid cover corner (Webb) and a young but
improving defensive back corps capable of limiting even the top
group of receivers in the league. In their previous meeting Dalton
threw two touchdowns but also three interceptions, throwing the
ball 51 times, the most any quarterback has thrown against the
Ravens this year (Ravens won).
This time around I would expect fewer passes and a little bit
more reliance on the run, as the Ravens offense is struggling
and the Bengals should not have much trouble turning this into
a grind-it-out game, which should favor them, especially being
at home. The good news for Dalton, and other Bengals passing game
player owners, is that the Bengals seem to be playing wide receiver
Marvin Jones more and his increased production should help Dalton
and the rest of the offense. While the matchup is not juicy enough
to feel confident about Dalton, he should not totally be written
off either. Because he is coming off a huge game, has great weapons,
is playing for something, and at home, I can see playing Dalton
as a solid QB2, somewhere in that 13-15 range for QBs. His ceiling
is not very high but his floor is also fairly high given the current
circumstances. As for Dalton’s receivers, there is a ton
of talent, with A.J. Green, Jones, Jermaine Gresham and Tyler
Eifert, but other than Green standing out in most games, the other
guys seem to cancel each other out most weeks, splitting the targets
and production fairly evenly and often unpredictably. Green remains
a fairly safe WR1 whose upside is somewhat capped because of the
Ravens' solid secondary but still has the talent to be a top 10
performer at the position, where I like him in that 7-10 range.
Neither Bengals tight end is a good option, as each is banged
up but both should play and split the work, meaning neither is
anything more than a low-end TE2. The only other notable guy is
the aforementioned Jones, whose playing time and production have
increased the past few weeks to a level where he is probably a
solid high-end WR4 now. While Jones is an interesting option,
chances are you have better ones if you are still alive at this
point in the fantasy season.
Running Game Thoughts: While they were not really needed at all,
both Bengals running backs (Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis)
were ineffective last week, combining for 25 carries for just
44 yards. The workload continues to be split almost exactly 50-50
now, as both are averaging about 12 carries the past few weeks,
with Bernard being the more productive fantasy back thanks to
his work in the passing game. While neither has exploded as a
rusher very often this year, the Bengals are a solid rushing team
overall, thanks in large part to their tough defense that keeps
them in most games, their play calling, and their talented receivers
who force defenses to respect the pass.
The Ravens rush defense limits the upside of this unit, as they
have let up the ninth fewest rush yards on the year and are the
eighth toughest defense for opposing fantasy RBs to score against.
Despite these numbers, the chances are pretty good that the Bengals
rush 35-plus times in this contest, as they look to grind it out
at home and avoid any turnovers through the air against a tough
Ravens pass defense. With the Ravens offense struggling and the
Bengals defense being so good, I can easily see this being a defensive
game, and one in which both BJGE and Bernard see plenty of work.
While the committee approach and the matchup limit both backs'
upside, I like Bernard as a solid low- to mid-level RB2 and Green-Ellis
as a solid RB3/flex option. Neither back is totally safe but should
see a ton of work and therefore be a nice option for those still
alive in their fantasy leagues, especially those of larger size.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
A.J. Green: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 70 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 45 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Marvin Jones: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 20 ^ Top
Lions @ Vikings
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: After blowing
their opportunity and losing to the Giants last week, the Lions
have been eliminated from playoff contention. This is very significant
because this game is totally meaningless for both teams, so neither
may play their usual starters for much of the game, if at all.
Most notably for the Lions passing unit is the absence of Calvin
Johnson, who is expected to miss the game with knee and ankle
issues. Johnson played last week but was mostly ineffective and
sat out most of the second half. With Johnson out, the entire
passing unit suffers, as Johnson is not only one of the NFL’s
premier playmakers but also the guy who takes the most defensive
pressure off the other Lions' offensive skill players. Without
Johnson the key players are Matthew Stafford, Nate Burleson, and
Kris Durham, all expected to play. The tight end position is still
in question, with Brandon Pettigrew hurt, but chances are he will
sit, making Joseph Fauria the tight end to watch on this unit.
The matchup is a great one, as the Vikings have given up the most
passing yards and passing touchdowns in the NFL. Against the Bengals
last week they gave up 366 yards and four touchdowns through the
air without picking off a single pass.
While the Lions do not have anything to play for, it is still
likely they try to end the season with a win, especially against
a division opponent. While it is possible the Lions bench their
starters towards the end of the game, most should play enough
to make some substantial fantasy impact against a weak opponent.
Matthew Stafford has struggled now in three straight games, and
without Megatron he is no longer elite. But the matchup is too
juicy to ignore, so Stafford should still be viewed as a low-end
QB1, somewhere in that 10-12 range for QBs. Who will benefit from
the great matchup and the absence of Johnson is hard to say, but
both Burleson and Durham should see enough targets to be possible
options as lower-end WR3s against a Vikings defense that gives
up the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs. If this is
your championship week, both WRs are playable, but really, you
should have better options at this point. Fauria remains a touchdown-dependent
TE with seven scores on the year but just 15 catches overall.
If you are looking for a boom-or-bust TE2, Fauria may fit the
bill if Pettigrew is out. If Pettigrew plays I would simply avoid
all Lions TEs despite the good matchup. Overall, there is some
decent value in this unit in a good matchup, but with nothing
to play for and likely no Megatron, they are all far from a sure
thing.
Running Game Thoughts: While the Vikings run defense is better
than their pass defense, that is not really saying a whole lot,
as they are still giving up nearly 114 rush yards per game (18th
in the NFL) and are the eighth most generous to opposing fantasy
RBs. The tricky part for fantasy owners looking to start a Lions
RB is which one to rely on. Reggie Bush was a fairly solid RB1
all year but has been benched a few times now for fumbling (again
last week) and has also dealt with more injuries than backup Joique
Bell. Bell was the lone bright spot for the Lions last week, with
91 yards rushing (1 TD) and 10 catches for 63 yards (10 targets).
Bell has shown feature-back qualities all season, and while he
is a restricted free agent next year, the team is likely in evaluation
mode right now to see what they want to do with their backfield.
While both backs should play, and the matchup is juicy enough
for both to make an impact, I would lean slightly towards Bell
over Bush, as he has the hot hand and Bush may rest a little more
rather than risk aggravating any of the injuries he has dealt
with this year. With the workload split once again, neither back
has tremendous upside, but I think both are solid high-end RB3/flex
options, with Bell perhaps being a little more safe.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 50 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Joique Bell: 70 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Nate Burleson: 70 rec yds
Kris Durham: 70 rec yds
Joseph Fauria: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The Vikings
played a tough defense last week and thus got about the results
one would expect, with Matt Cassel throwing for just 114 yards,
one touchdown and three interceptions. With this game being meaningless
for both teams the Vikings are likely just playing to evaluate
talent and to try and get one more win in front of their home
crowd. Once again Cassel will start at quarterback and, despite
a decent matchup, is firmly off the fantasy radar as a starter.
The Lions have given up the sixth most passing yards thus far
but are basically neutral against opposing fantasy QBs because
they do not give up a ton of touchdowns (23 on the year) and have
picked off a decent number of passes. While Cassel is off the
fantasy radar, both Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are
fantasy relevant against a Detroit secondary that has given up
the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Jennings has been Cassel’s favorite target this year and
has consistently received six-plus targets per game with Cassel
under center. While Jennings' upside is not huge, he should see
a healthy amount of targets and make for a fairly safe WR3, even
if his upside is limited. Rookie Patterson is a different story,
as his upside is huge but he is not as safe an option as Jennings,
getting about two less targets per game than his counterpart the
past six weeks. Patterson has been force-fed the ball the past
few weeks, even in the run game, as the Vikings brass looks to
evaluate their rookie wide receiver. He has the speed and ability
to turn any play into a touchdown, and while he is still learning
the finer points of the game, he only needs a few touches to make
a nice impact. I look at Patterson as a high-end WR3 who could
easily finish among the top 15 wide receivers if the Vikings feed
him the ball like they have been lately. He is not a super safe
option yet, but in the last week of the fantasy season, he is
an intriguing pick for possible big points. No other Vikings passing
game member is fantasy relevant, as the rest are too inconsistent
or simply not talented enough to take a chance on.
Running Game Thoughts: As one of the very best units in the NFL,
thanks to Adrian Peterson, the Vikings run game is usually a constant
and reliable source of fantasy points. This week, however, it
is shaping up to be one of the cloudiest and least attractive
options around. While Peterson is normally considered a freak
of nature, multiple injuries (groin, foot) seem to have caught
up to him, and with nothing left to play for it may be time the
Vikings shut him down for the year so the franchise player can
start his offseason healing process early. What makes the situation
even cloudier is that backup Toby Gerhart may very well miss this
game with a hamstring injury, and third-string running back Matt
Asiata, who had three touchdowns a few weeks back, will also probably
be out with a hamstring issue. The only running back left on the
roster, and the guy who will probably start, is Joe Banyard. But
even if the matchup were a cakewalk, you do not want to be relying
on a guy like that at this point in the season.
The matchup, in fact, is actually very tough, as the Lions are
one of the best run stoppers in the game today. Currently they
have let up the fourth fewest rush yards in the league and might
very well be first if it was not for the fluke “snowstorm”
game played in Philadelphia, where LeSean McCoy ran for over 200
yards on a snow covered field. With only nine rushing touchdowns
allowed on the year and so few yards, it is no wonder the Lions
are the seventh toughest unit for opposing fantasy RBs to score
against. The only possible way anyone on this Vikings run unit
is fantasy relevant is if Peterson miraculously makes the start,
and even then I would rank him as more of a high-end RB2 than
the usual top three option he is, simply because of his health
and the tough matchup. If anybody else on this team is the starter,
avoid them at all costs.
Projections:
Matt Cassel: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Greg Jennings: 70 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 75 rec yds, 1 TD, 15 rush yds
Joe Banyard: 30rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 23 ^ Top
Browns @ Steelers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Browns
obviously have nothing to play for this season so they will likely
be in full evaluation mode, along with playing spoiler for the
Steelers who still have a remote chance of making the playoffs.
Jason Campbell will start at quarterback once again, and while
he has had a few surprisingly good games this year, he has gone
ice cold his past two, throwing four interceptions against one
touchdown and completing just 51 percent of his passes in those
contests combined. Needless to say, Campbell is not a fantasy
option, especially with the Steelers playing hard and being a
tough matchup. The Steelers are currently eighth in the NFL in
pass yards allowed and are top 10 in completion percentage allowed,
yards per pass attempt allowed, and touchdown passes allowed.
Consequently, they are among the 10 toughest teams for opposing
fantasy QBs and WRs to score against. Always being a tough place
to play, Heinz Field will see the Pittsburgh fans extra wound
up with some outside playoff hopes on the line, and chances are,
the Browns are ready to start their offseason golf trips.
Working against the Browns and Campbell is the probable absence
of tight end Jordan Cameron, who is still dealing with concussion
symptoms and will likely be held out of this one in order to start
the offseason more healthy. With Cameron out and Campbell so cold,
this team really has only one guy that is on the fantasy radar,
wide receiver Josh Gordon. Gordon has become one of the most reliable
and explosive wide receivers in the game and regardless of his
quarterback or the matchup, Gordon seems to rise to the occasion.
While Pittsburgh is a tougher-than-average matchup for Gordon,
he will almost certainly see 10-plus targets and has some good
history against the Steelers. In Week 12 in Cleveland Gordon went
for 14 catches, 237 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets. Obviously
that is unlikely to happen again, but he obviously has that kind
of upside. That game, by the way, was the second best fantasy
day a WR has had against the Steelers this year, just narrowly
behind Calvin Johnson, who had 179 yards and two touchdowns. Gordon
remains a high-upside and relatively safe WR1 and should end up
a top five performer at the position. No other Browns passing
game player is on the fantasy radar, as this team is inconsistent,
lacks talent, and is running cold right now.
Running Game Thoughts: While the Browns running game has been
virtually non-existent most of the year, especially for fantasy
purposes, last week provided a glimmer of hope for the future.
Against a tough Jets run defense, Edwin Baker ran 17 times for
64 yards and a touchdown and caught two passes for 12 yards. Obviously
those numbers are not earth-shattering, and chances are that almost
nobody in the world started Baker on their fantasy team. But it
goes down as one of the better performances by a Browns running
back this year, especially considering the tough opponent. With
Baker being only 22 years old and the Browns likely in evaluation
mode for the future, Baker will likely get the start in a matchup
that is not half bad.
While the Steelers excel in pass defense, their run defense is
quite a bit weaker, ranking 22nd in the league in rush yards allowed
and having allowed a healthy 4.3 yards per carry and 18 rushing
touchdowns, fourth most in the NFL. Consequently, the Steelers
are the 13th most generous team against opposing fantasy RBs.
With the Browns defense being solid and Jason Campbell playing
at a low level right now, it is not outside the realm of possibilities
that Baker could get 20-plus total touches. With a solid matchup
and not much legit competition behind him, Baker makes for an
intriguing RB3/flex play for those of you still playing. With
numerous other running backs hurt or perhaps resting, Baker makes
for a desperation play, but one with some legitimate upside. No
other Browns running back is worth considering.
Projections:
Jason Campbell: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Josh Gordon: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Little: 30 rec yds
Edwin Baker: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Chris Ogbonnaya: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: With a small
but possible chance at still making the playoffs, the Steelers
will certainly be trying their best as they host the Browns, who
have nothing on the line. While it was mostly the run game that
got them the victory last week, the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger
have been throwing the ball well most of the year and have had
some relevant fantasy games in turn. This week the matchup is
not ideal but there is certainly some value and chance to outperform
the matchup on paper. The Browns are currently ninth in the league
in passing yards allowed, and other than interceptions (just 12),
they are fairly solid across the board in sacks (14th), completion
percentage allowed (15th), yards per pass attempt allowed (3rd),
and long pass play allowed (2nd). As far as fantasy points allowed,
the Browns are about average to QBs, WRs, and TEs, as each position
has had big games but the Browns have also come close to shutting
out each as well. The possibly great news for the Steelers is
that the Browns best defender, cornerback Joe Haden, is questionable
with a hip injury and will most likely sit out in order to get
healthy for the offseason. While Haden has given up a few big
games to some of the game’s best wide receivers, he has
also shut down a few and is one of the more reliable cover corners
in the league. For the Steelers, the only guy worth noting on
the injury report is wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who is dealing
with a knee issue but will probably try to play, although he will
be limited if he suits up.
For those still alive in their fantasy leagues, this game is really
all about two guys: Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. While Big
Ben is not an elite fantasy QB this season, he has had a few elite
games and has enough weapons and skill to be a top 10 QB in the
right matchup. With Haden likely out, the matchup is not as bad
as it may have been earlier in the year, especially playing in
Pittsburgh with extra motivation to win. With various other quarterbacks
in meaningless games or in tougher matchups I see Ben as a low-end
QB1, in that 10-12 range, where he should be a safe bet for points
with the potential for a very solid game. As for Brown, no way
you are sitting him if you own him, as he has been one of, if
not THE, most consistent fantasy WRs of all this year. With Haden
likely out, or very limited if he plays, Brown should be able
to eat up the coverage, draw eight or more targets and put up
solid mid-level WR1 numbers. At this point no other Steeler is
really fantasy relevant, as the remaining guys are no better than
WR4 types at best and Heath Miller is a below-average option at
TE2.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell continued his excellent
rookie season with his best performance yet, his first 100-plus
yard rushing game. Against the Packers, Bell ran for 124 yards
and a touchdown and, unlike some rookies who hit the proverbial
wall towards the end of their first year, Bell seems to be getting
better as the season goes on. With some glimmer of hope at reaching
the playoffs, the Steelers will certainly play their starters
and try to get their rookie running back all the experience they
can, especially since he is playing at a high level. The matchup
itself is not ideal, but the Browns are a tougher team to pass
against than run against and playing in Pittsburgh in a meaningless
game (for the Browns) could mean the defense will not be playing
their hardest.
To date, the Browns are a little tougher than average against
opposing fantasy RBs (17th), but it is still basically a neutral
matchup for Bell. With Bell having a decent game against the Browns
the first time around (98 total yards) and this being a home game
coming off his first 100-plus yard game, I like Bell’s chances
to be a solid RB2, somewhere in that 12-15 range for RBs. With
the chance that the Steelers get a decent lead going, Bell could
easily see 20-plus touches and therefore remains a very safe play.
Look for Bell to finish the regular season strong. No other Steelers
running back is remotely relevant in fantasy or real life.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs
Le’Veon
Bell: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 45 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 20 ^ Top
Jets at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: After rumors
surfaced that Rex Ryan may be in his final season coaching with
the team, the Jets put together arguably their most complete game
of the season. Offensively they committed no turnovers, allowed
no sacks, and quarterback Geno Smith threw for two touchdowns
in addition to running for a third score. While Smith's completion
percentage for the game was only 55.6 percent and he threw for
just 214 yards, both of those marks are still slightly above his
season averages, giving him the most statistically significant
victory of his rookie season in the final 2013 New York home game.
Even with the error-free performance, the Jets still rank as one
of the worst passing offenses in the league, and the Week 16 results
are much more the exception than the norm, though for fantasy
owners who happened to play Smith, they certainly reaped the rewards
of that bold move. On the season no one has thrown fewer touchdowns
and only one team has committed more interceptions than the Jets,
along with giving up the second most sacks and the worst completion
percentage in the league. While even a blind pig can find an acorn
every now and again, the likelihood of Smith being able to repeat
his Week 16 performance is extremely low, and the numbers suggest
he’s much more inclined to have a terrible game than one
that is positive or even mediocre.
Whereas the Jets were better offensively in their latest game
than they have been for the majority of the season, Miami put
together one of its worst team performances last week against
a team who is perennially near the bottom of the NFL totem pole.
Even with a backup quarterback at the helm, the Bills were able
to complete 60 percent of their passes and throw for more than
double the yardage of Miami, and all of this was done without
their star receiver even being at the stadium on game day. Assuming
the most recent contest can be brushed off as a one-time anomaly,
the Dolphins are still one of the better pass defenses in the
league, with top five marks for touchdowns allowed and top ten
in the areas of interceptions recorded and sacks forced. They’re
also eleventh overall for completion percentage allowed and yards
surrendered per attempt. The only deficiency on the team is from
yards allowed per game, but even with 235 against, they’re
right along the midline, so when considering all of their other
strengths, the yardage surrendered isn’t a particularly
large issue. Because both New York and Miami played far differently
in Week 16 than they have for most of the season, there are a
number of possibilities for their performances in the season finale,
and with the Jets potentially playing for the future of their
coach and the Dolphins playing for a playoff spot, neither will
be short on motivation. The most reasonable outlook is for both
teams to regress toward their means, suggesting that Smith will
go back to playing like a rookie quarterback on a team lacking
for offensive firepower and that the Miami pass defense will look
to take advantage of the mistakes Smith’s likely to make
while they force pressure rushed decisions on him.
Running Game Thoughts: With little exception, the Jets have been
one of the most consistent rushing teams in the league; through
15 games they’ve broken 100 yards two-thirds of the time,
have recorded fewer than 90 yards only once, and have never gained
less than 80 rushing yards in any contest. The greatest variable
in their ground game has been the contributions from their quarterback,
who himself has half of the team’s rushing touchdowns. In
fact, in the five games in which Smith has scored New York has
won all of them, including two contests against teams who are
vying for a first-round bye in the playoffs. As a team the Jets
average 133.6 rushing yards per game, more than all but five teams,
and have recorded the sixth most rushing attempts. Despite that
yardage and their dedication to the rushing attack, they have
only 10 touchdowns, the tenth worst work in the NFL. They run
more than most and additionally have better success in doing so
than most but still can’t consistently find their way into
the end zone. In Smith they’ve found the ultimate x-factor,
a gifted scrambler with good vision who has shown a willingness
to run when opportunities present themselves. Even with the relatively
poor passing game, only once has Smith rushed more than six times
in a game, he has never gained more than 50 yards on the ground,
and only once has he had a run of greater than 20 yards.
Because of this inconsistency, defenses rarely key on Smith as
a runner, meaning than when he does take off he tends to see decent
success. For the Dolphins in Week 17, the biggest rushing threat
will continue to be running back Chris Ivory, the team’s
leading rusher and clearly the most dynamic of their running backs.
While his touches have been somewhat inconsistent throughout the
season, his production as the primary ball carrier has been quite
successful; in games where he has received between 11 and 33 touches
(seven games), he has never averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry,
and in those seven contests, he’s gained 601 yards on 106
carries for an average of 5.67 per attempt with three touchdowns.
On the season Miami is the eighth worst rushing defense, with
122.9 yards surrendered per game, though their mark for touchdowns
allowed (12) is right at the league average. Given that the strengths
and weakness of New York and Miami align perfectly, their matchup
in Week 17 will probably feature a fair number of yards gained
on the ground but is also just as likely to not produce many,
if any, Jets rushing touchdowns. Once again, the wildcard will
be their young quarterback, who more than any other New York ball
carrier has been able to scramble his way to a score when the
Jets have found themselves in the red zone. Look for Ivory to
do most of the heavy lifting, running back Bilal Powell to see
a handful of touches, and Smith to contribute once or twice per
quarter, given the opportunity to do so.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 150 pass yds, 1 INT / 30 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 90 rush yds
Bilal Powell: 40 rush yards, 20 rec yards
Jeremy Kerley: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: In Week 16 the Dolphins had the chance to
give themselves a significant boost in playoff positioning, but
they failed and now need a victory and help elsewhere to sneak
into the sixth spot for the postseason. To put it mildly, nothing
was working for Miami, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill put together
what was statistically the worst game of his career. While acknowledging
that the Bills are one of the better pass defenses in the league,
two of their four victories have come against Miami, suggesting
that the Dolphins matchup extremely poorly against a Buffalo team
that most other NFL franchises are able to handle. Aside from
not committing any turnovers, Tannehill couldn’t have played
much worse, completing only 37.0 percent of his passes for 82
yards, averaging an abysmal 3.04 yards per attempt. He didn’t
see any time in the fourth quarter as he was relieved by quarterback
Matt Moore, who was even worse, throwing six passes for two incompletions,
two catches (53 yards), and two interceptions. While there is
little doubt Tannehill will be back under center, his team will
need him to be back in the form he’s been for the majority
of the season; despite a below-average ranking in the major passing
categories, the Dolphins are above .500 and on the verge of their
first playoff berth in six years. If the Dolphins' signal caller
can go out and come close to their season averages of 224 yards,
1.53 touchdowns, and 1.07 interceptions per game, Miami should
be able to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Of all the ways the Week 17 contest could fall apart for the
Dolphins, the most likely suspect will be quarterback pressure,
considering that no team has given up more sacks than Miami (58,
next closest is 47) and that New York is better than average at
getting to the quarterback. In their Week 13 matchup, Tannehill
was only sacked once, giving reason for the team to remain optimistic
about keeping him upright in the season finale. In the epic collapse
last week he was sacked seven times and lost 46 yards, forfeiting
more than half of the gains he was able to make through the air.
Without that obvious disruption, the game may have gone differently,
much like the earlier contest against the Jets. With the time
he was given by his offensive line, Tannehill was able to throw
for a season-high 331 yards with two touchdowns and an interception
against a porous New York secondary that allows 250 yards per
game, ninth worst in the league. Both wide receivers Mike Wallace
and Brian Hartline recorded over 80 yards and a touchdown on at
least seven receptions in Week 13, and there is little to suggest
that they won’t each have similar success in the rematch.
Only four teams have recorded fewer interceptions than the Jets,
who barely escape the bottom third when it comes to touchdowns
allowed, meaning Tannehill should feel free to spread the ball
around to any of his receivers, whether it be the speedy Wallace,
the reliable Hartline, or even the opportunistic tight end, Charles
Clay. Assuming Miami can brush off the mess from last week, the
Jets are likely to once again have their hands full with a team
capable of moving the ball effectively, if not efficiently, through
the air.
Running Game Thoughts: The most frustrating rushing situation
in all of fantasy football may come out of Miami. With inconsistent
touches going to ether of their running backs, even when healthy,
the Dolphins backfield continues to be a mess. Even after Lamar
Miller seemed to have taken control of the starting position over
Daniel Thomas, neither of their rushing totals have been reliable
enough for either Miami or their fantasy owners. Last week Miller
earned only three touches despite being the unquestioned starter,
though his eight yards did surpass the six from Thomas, despite
the latter receiving nine carries. Much like their passing game,
it is best to erase that game from memory and try again in the
season finale, hoping that season averages are what comes forth
from the Week 17 contest. But even at that, there won’t
be much room for optimism with the Dolphins ground game. They
are one of seven teams to average fewer than 90 rushing yards
per game, and only five teams have scored fewer rushing touchdowns.
In Week 13 against the Jets they were able to gain 125 yards on
the ground, though it did require 36 touches, giving them a 3.5-yard
average.
Even reaching their underwhelming season marks would be a feat
this weekend against New York, who surrender only 88.0 yards against
per game and have given up only nine rushing touchdowns this season;
only seven teams have fewer touchdowns allowed. Since giving up
125 rushing yards to Miami in Week 13, the Jets have averaged
132 yards against per game and 4.8 per carry, a far cry from the
stingy run defense they’ve put together for the majority
of the season. The Dolphins have recorded 103 rushing yards and
no touchdowns in the past two games, a trend which New York will
certainly aim to continue as they try to break out of their own
recent slump. The calling card for Miami all season has been inconsistency,
both in game plan and in performance, so counting on their running
game for the final game of the season is particularly inadvisable.
In what figures to be a low scoring game, the Dolphins don’t
pose enough of a threat on the ground to warrant starting Miller
in any fantasy format, and he is far and away the best rushing
option for Miami.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 40 rush yds
Mike Wallace: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Brian Hartline: 50 rec yards
Charles Clay: 40 rec yards, 1 TD
Prediction: Dolphins 17, Jets 13 ^ Top
Redskins at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: For the third
game in a row Kirk Cousins will be the quarterback for Washington,
giving him one last chance to challenge for the long-term starting
role or at least add to his resume for potential trade suitors.
Even with a change at signal caller the Redskins haven’t
been able to shake their losing ways, riding a seven-game losing
streak into the season finale that included a pair of loses with
Cousins as the starter. Despite not changing their fortunes any,
the biggest difference Cousins has brought to the team has been
to make the team competitive, with his two losses coming by a
combined three points, whereas under Robert Griffin III the team
was always a touchdown or more behind in their other 10 losses.
Aside from a per-game yardage average and a TD-INT ratio which
are both slightly skewed because of Cousins replacing Griffin
partway through two other games, the two quarterbacks have been
statistically similar, with approximately equal numbers of touchdowns
and interceptions, completion percentages near 60 percent, and
a yards-per-attempt average right around seven. The only significant
difference between the two has been their propensity for taking
sacks, whereas Griffin took 38 in his 13 starts (nearly three
per game) and Cousins has only been sacked once in his two starts.
Whether the line has been better, the quarterback is making better
decisions, or something else is at play, the primary beneficiary
has been wide receiver Pierre Garcon, who leads the league in
both targets (174) and catches (107). While Cousins has been the
starter Garcon has caught seven balls or more while recording
at least 129 yards and one touchdown in each game; Garcon is once
again a fantasy star thanks largely to the quarterback change.
Five weeks ago when these teams played, defensive end Justin
Tuck sacked Griffin four times and has added another 2.5 sacks
in his two games since; 7.5 of his nine sacks this season have
come in the past five weeks, suggesting that the once formidable
pass rusher may finally be getting back to form and that the Redskins
offensive line may be in for another busy day this weekend. Since
losing six games to start the season New York has gone 6-3 and
their defense has been the unit driving the resurgence. Last week
they held All Star wide receiver Calvin Johnson to 43 yards on
three catches from four targets, forced two interceptions, allowed
no passing touchdowns, and gave up only 222 yards through the
air on a 59.5 percent completion day from quarterback Matthew
Stafford, who is third in yards and sixth in touchdowns, ranking
in the top ten of fantasy QBs for the season. The Giants have
forced two sacks or more in each of the last five games and will
be looking to continue that streak against a Washington O-line
that has averaged nearly three allowed per game prior to Cousins
becoming the starter. If they’re unable to pressure the
quarterback, their 22nd-ranked pass defense will likely have trouble
containing Garcon and the Redskins receivers, who will challenge
the 249-yards-against average and 28-14 TD-INT ratio that New
York has amassed this season.
Running Game Thoughts: On the ground Washington is not only less
dynamic without Griffin under center but they’re also less
productive, averaging 101.5 yards per game compared to a season
average of 138.2, which is fifth best in the league. After peaking
in Weeks 7 through 10, running back Alfred Morris saw his production
slip in the subsequent weeks until Cousins became the starting
quarterback. In the past two weeks Morris has rebounded, averaging
93 yards per game and scoring only his second touchdown since
Week 9. While Cousins certainly isn’t the runner that Griffin
can be, he does bring better balance to the offense as a whole,
which allows the running game to have better consistency. And
since Morris is now the primary rushing threat, he and his fantasy
owners have been able to benefit from Griffin’s absence.
Despite losing two fumbles the week before, Morris saw his workload
increase by 33 percent and he saw his touch percentage increase
to 96 percent of the total carries (24 of 25) for all Redskins
running backs; he responded by not putting the ball on the turf
once and finding his way into the end zone, likely reaffirming
Mike Shanahan’s faith in him as the workhorse for Washington.
Over the last four games, the Giants have allowed between 134-148
rushing yards per game and at least one touchdown per contest,
with two being surrendered most recently. For the season, they’ve
averaged only 110.1 yards against per game, only one spot above
the league midline but still far better than how they’ve
done lately. The simplest conclusion is that the defense has become
more aggressive, getting to the quarterback more and disrupting
the passing game that way but sacrificing their presence against
the run in order to achieve that gain. Excluding the four-game
winning streak against non-starting quarterbacks, the two wins
they’ve earned in the last five games are the first two
they’ve earned this year, meaning that the change in defensive
strategy just may be paying off. This does however open to door
for Morris to potentially run through all game, as the New York
front seven focuses more on the quarterback rather than the man
most likely to be carrying the ball. The increase in Morris’
production coupled with his continued dominance of carries should
work to the benefit of his fantasy owners and may ultimately be
the reason New York ends their season similarly to how they started
it, with a close loss to a division rival.
Projections:
Kirk Cousins: 210 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: As his worst season in recent history, if
not in his career, draws to a close, Eli Manning has shown signs
of breaking out of the slump that has affected him for the majority
of the season. Oddly enough, the most recent mediocre-or-better
performance came without star wide receiver Victor Cruz, who will
be forced to miss Week 17 as well. After a solid start to the
season Cruz saw his production decline after a few weeks and in
his place Ruben Randle has become the new, thought potentially
temporary, leading receiver in New York. Throughout the season,
wide receiver Hakeem Nicks has been largely overlooked due to
his not recording any receiving touchdowns, and without a score
in the season finale he will turn in the only scoreless season
of his career, after a career-worst year of 692 yards and three
scores last season. While his per-catch averages are right in
line with the better years of his career, Nicks simply isn’t
seeing the volume of targets as he’s become accustomed,
due in part to nagging injuries but also because of the emergence
of Randle. In the season finale the pair will line up across from
each other as the two primary receiving threats for Manning and
the Giants, and although neither possesses the breakaway speed
of Cruz, that could end up working to their advantage as the defense
is forced to cover them equally, likely resulting in one or the
other being open and their roles reversing as the defense is forced
to adjust. Of course this all depends on the offensive line protecting
their quarterback and Manning not adding to this career-worst
and league-high interception total.
For all of their struggles this season, the Redskins have struggled
to defend the pass, much like the rest of their division. They
barely escape the bottom ten in yards allowed per game, surrender
the most yards per attempt in the NFL, and give up the second
greatest completion percentage against. Additionally, only five
teams have allowed more touchdowns, their interceptions are perfectly
mediocre, and they’ve recorded fewer sacks than most other
teams in the league. Their pass defense does nothing particularly
well and in more than one area they are exceptionally poor; if
there ever were a game for Manning to use as a springboard for
next season, this would be it. In their Week 13 meeting Manning
threw one touchdown and one interception while completing 78.6
percent of his passes for 235 yards in addition to being sacked
three times; though relatively pedestrian, those marks are all
better than his season averages. Since that meeting (three games),
the Redskins have allowed five touchdowns and forced three interceptions
along with five sacks, all of which are worse than their season
paces. With the Giants' passing offense slightly over-performing
and the Redskins' passing defense slightly underperforming, Manning
stands a chance of ending the season on a high note despite being
without his top receiving threat.
Running Game Thoughts: The receiving corps may not be the only
unit without a key component for Week 17, as running backs Andre
Brown and Peyton Hillis are both listed as Questionable because
of concussions, potentially leaving Michael Cox as the starting
running back for this weekend. Aside from seeing time during the
middle of the season when New York couldn’t field the same
set of running backs for consecutive games, Cox has been a nonfactor
on the field, recording 22 carries and three receptions for a
total of 55 yards for the entire season. While unlikely, it is
conceivable for the rookie to double his career touches and production
in this one game alone. Earlier this season he averaged 2.1 yards
per carry in back-to-back games, his only playing time before
picking up a pair of carries in the closing frame last weekend.
Though his personal numbers don’t provide a substantial
sample, the Giants as a team have been abysmal on the ground all
year, ranking next to last in yards per game with 80.7 and nearly
bringing up the rear with a fourth worst 3.5 yards-per-carry average.
Their best statistic is in touchdowns scored, with 10, but even
that fails to escape the bottom third of the league. Down to their
seventh-round rookie draft pick, who didn’t even start the
season on the depth chart, New York can all but give up on the
running game, if they haven’t done so already.
The run defense from Washington is wonderfully mediocre in every
way except for one, in touchdowns allowed, where they are the
league’s most permissive team; with 22 touchdowns surrendered
in 15 games they’re averaging 1.47 scores on the ground
per contest. When compared to their yardage numbers, the primary
conclusion is that their red zone defense is particularly horrible
though in other areas of the field they’re approximately
average. For Sunday that means that the struggling Giants ground
game will have a hard time moving the ball, but if by chance they
do make it deep into Washington territory, they stand a better-than-average
chance of turning that field position into points. New York should
choose to view this as a silver lining, much like the Redskins
should look at the inexperienced running back as the physical
embodiment of their optimism. Considering how little is at stake
in this game and that each club is coming off of a historically
bad year (for different reasons), the best course of action for
each would be to get the most they can out of their respective
quarterbacks and use their running game as a means for keeping
the defense in check. The Giants will lean on Manning more than
ever to help him achieve a positive end to the season, and the
primary use for whoever the running back may be will almost certainly
come as a pass blocker, hopefully giving the quarterback enough
time to mentally salvage his season and set the club up for success
in 2014.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 250 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Andre Brown: 50 rush yards, 10 rec yards
Michael Cox: 40 rush yds
Hakeem Nicks: 60 rec yds
Jerrel Jernigan: 50 rec yards, 1 TD
Prediction: Redskins 24, Giants 20 ^ Top
Bills at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: As if a daunting
history against the Patriots wasn’t enough, Buffalo doesn’t
even currently know who their quarterback will be come Sunday;
EJ Manuel missed Week 16 with a sprained knee and has been limited
in practice all week, splitting reps with Thad Lewis who led the
team to his second victory in four games. Though Manuel is a bit
more mobile and therefore a more consistent running threat, he
and Lewis have remarkably similar statistics this season, each
averaging around 200 passing yards per game (with 20 or more attempts),
roughly 6.5 yards per attempt, with a completion percentage very
near to 60 percent and an approximately equal TD-INT ratio. Those
statistics have landed Buffalo very near the bottom of offensive
passing rankings, finishing in the bottom five for yards per game,
touchdowns scored, completion percentage, and yards per attempt.
On top of that, the Bills have thrown more interceptions than
most other teams and land in the bottom ten for sacks surrendered
despite attempting fewer passes than nearly three-quarters of
the league. Both Manuel and Lewis have started once in the past
two games, each earning a victory for the Bills. During those
wins Buffalo has scored a total of 46 points but both quarterbacks
each threw for only 193 yards with one interception, though Manuel
threw two touchdowns to Lewis’s zero. From those two games
Manuel was sacked more times, though he had a better completion
percentage. Since he is considered the future of the franchise,
the team has an interest in protecting his health, so if there
are any questions, he’s likely to be rested in favor of
Lewis, though whoever earns the start will likely be without wide
receiver Steve Johnson for the second week in a row as he attends
to family matters following the death of his mother less than
two weeks ago.
With Johnson and fellow wide receiver Marquis Goodwin (knee)
both likely out, the Patriots will only have to deal with wide
receiver Robert Woods and tight end Scott Chandler as the primary
receiving targets in addition to the running backs, who are involved
in the passing game with decent consistency. Considering how New
England has averaged 304 passing yards against for the last three
contests, every little bit helps, even against the doormat of
the division. For the season, the Patriots are a touch below average
when it comes to defending the pass, surrendering 240 yards per
game and totaling 24 touchdowns against. Conversely, they’re
better than most when it comes to forcing interceptions and recording
sacks, so while they may give up more than most in other areas,
their attacking style often compensates for it. The key for the
Patriots has often been their offense, forcing their opponents
to play from behind and creating turnover opportunities, so in
essence their best defense is generally a good offense. Not known
for their offensive firepower, Buffalo is likely to be put in
an uncomfortable position if the Patriots are able to jump out
to an early lead, and with two of their top six pass catchers
unavailable, their task becomes all the more difficult.
Running Game Thoughts: If the Bills are to pull off the upset
and potentially spoil the Patriots' first-round bye, it will almost
certainly be done via their ground attack. As a team, they average
142.5 yards per game, second best in the league, and have recorded
195 rushing yards or more in three of the past four contests.
Despite the fact that running back C.J. Spiller is the more explosive
ball carrier and has a slightly better per-carry yardage average,
Fred Jackson has been the more productive back for the majority
of the season, totaling a few more rushing yards, twice as many
receiving yards, and nine touchdowns to Spiller’s two, clearly
making him the better fantasy RB. On the year, they’ve combined
to average 114.4 rushing and 33.5 receiving yards per game, with
occasional contributions from the quarterback on a scramble or
a third running back working in relief. What the running game
does for the Bills is give them a distinct advantage in time of
possession; in five of their six wins they’ve won the battle
for time possession, and only once have they won without possessing
the ball for longer than their opponent. Running the ball and
controlling the clock will undoubtedly be the primary areas of
focus come Sunday afternoon.
Running the ball with authority is one thing that most teams
have been able to do against New England this season, as they
average a bottom five 131.7 yards against per game and a bottom
ten 4.4 yards per attempt. Even with those gains and that yardage,
they have allowed only 10 touchdowns on the ground, just outside
of a top ten ranking. If Buffalo is able to run the ball well,
they will not only be moving the ball down the field and hopefully
scoring points but also keeping their opponent’s offense
on the bench and likely limiting the points they can score. Additionally,
with the personnel struggles and injury concerns the Patriots
have had all season, they’ve needed more time and extra
plays to fall into their rhythm offensively, so if the Bills can
prolong their own drives, it will keep the Patriots on the sideline
and delay their ability to get going offensively. It’s a
big ask of the Buffalo running game, and that pressure is what
may best work to the Patriots’ advantage, because other
than that, there isn’t much they’re expected to be
able to do to slow down Jackson, Spiller, and whoever else may
be carrying the ball.
Projections:
Thaddeus Lewis: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT / 10 rush yds
Fred Jackson: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
C.J. Spiller: 60 rush yards, 20 rec yards
Robert Woods: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even in what is considered an off year,
Tom Brady has his team on the precipice of a first-round bye with
an outside chance of earning home field advantage throughout the
playoffs. The New England passing offense is inside the top ten
for several categories, including yards per game and interceptions
thrown, while landing in the top half in the areas of touchdowns
scored, completion percentage, yards gained per attempt, and sacks
surrendered. While being better than most has become routine for
the Patriots, being barely better than most is relatively uncharted
territory for Brady and his usually high-powered offense. Despite
starting the season without tight end Rob Gronkowski and being
forced to finish the season without him as well, New England will
have an otherwise full complement of receiving options for Week
17, something which hasn’t happened many times this year.
With wide receivers Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins listed
as Questionable for Sunday, the four top wide receivers would
finally be available for Brady—though from a fantasy perspective,
the more that play, the less certain any one of them will be a
solid start. Partially just because he's been healthy, Julian
Edelman has been the leading receiver for Brady in both yards
and touchdowns, so regardless of who is or isn’t available,
he’s the strongest wide receiver play for New England.
In Week 1 the Bills had one of their worst defensive performances
of the year and still played the Patriots to within two points,
losing only because of a late field goal despite being out-possessed
by 15 minutes. They allowed Brady to throw for 288 yards and two
touchdowns, though they did sack him three times and force an
interception. The defensive game plan for Buffalo should be fairly
similar in the season finale, as Gronkowski will similarly be
unavailable and both Edelman and Danny Amendola and will be active
and looking to wreak havoc on the secondary. Unlike in Week 1,
safety Jairus Byrd will be active for Week 17 and looking to make
up for the game he missed earlier, giving the Bills a noticeable
boost to their back four. On the season, Buffalo has been one
of the top passing defenses in the league, allowing only 210 yards
per game (top five) and recording the most sacks (56) while also
forcing 22 interceptions, second best in the NFL. In spite of
the other spectacular marks, the Bills have allowed more touchdowns
than most other teams, largely due to the unfavorable situations
their sometimes stagnant offense leaves for them. If the Buffalo
offense can run the ball with consistency, their defense may be
able to pressure Brady enough to keep the game close, much like
they did in the opening game.
Running Game Thoughts: The downside of having Brady under center
is that the rushing attack is constantly overlooked, but that
makes everything the Patriots are able to do on the ground even
more impressive. They average 119.9 yards per game, coming in
the top third of those rankings, and have scored the fourth most
rushing touchdowns in the league. Since running back Shane Vereen
was injured in the first game of the season, New England has used
a combination of ball carriers to head the rushing attack, but
with several of them having fumble troubles, LeGarrette Blount
has become the primary back for the past handful of games. After
returning, Vereen has been used primarily in a receiving capacity,
scoring twice out of the backfield as well as once recording more
than 150 yards. Added to the mix is Stevan Ridley, who after being
in the doghouse for a few weeks because of fumbling issues has
returned to ball-carrying duties, now firmly planted in a time
share with Blount. Because of the carries that are split between
the three backs, Vereen’s upside as a pass catcher separates
him from the other two, though without another huge receiving
game, none of the three have great upside beyond their ability
to reach the end zone.
Where the Patriots are good at gaining yards on the ground and
great at rushing for scores, Buffalo is reasonable at limiting
rushing yards and one of the top six teams at preventing scores
on the ground, pitting strength against strength this weekend
as the Bills look to play spoiler and potentially knock their
rival from a first-round bye all the way down to the fourth playoff
spot. More than being a stumbling block for the Patriots, Buffalo
will also be playing for a victory to earn their first three-game
winning streak since the beginning of 2011. While their rush defense
has been largely up and down all season, in their most recent
game they allowed only 14 rushing yards on 12 carries, never giving
up more than three yards at a time. While stuffing the Dolphins'
ground game isn’t the same as shutting down the New England
rushing attack, it does bode well for what is in store for the
season finale. Because the Patriots have three or more capable
running backs, Buffalo will constantly have to perform at their
best, as they’ll likely be facing a ball carrier who is
at full strength all game long. The interchangeable nature of
their backs has allowed them to run from no huddle situations,
giving them the ultimate advantage as Brady is able to dictate
when to run and how best to manipulate the defense.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 240 pass yds, 1 TD
Shane Vereen: 40 rush yds / 30 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 50 rec yards
Prediction: Patriots 21, Bills 17 ^ Top
Eagles at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: With nothing
on the line in Week 16 Philadelphia put together one of the most
dominant performances of the season, and now with everything on
the line in the last game of the season they’ll once again
be looking to put their best foot forward to earn the NFC East
division title and a spot in the playoffs. Win and they’re
in, lose and they’re out, it’s as simple as it gets.
Putting their best foot forward starts with quarterback Nick Foles,
who in less than a season’s worth of performances has established
himself as one of the best fantasy players of the latter part
of the year. His 25 passing touchdowns paired with only two interceptions
gives him far and away the best ratio in the league, plus he adds
appreciable yardage on the ground most games from scrambles along
with another three touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, he has the best
quarterback rating of the season, but despite starting only ten
games he has the eighth most touchdown passes and ranks just outside
of the top ten, ahead of a number of signal callers who have started
every game of 2013. While the new coaching philosophy is responsible
for some of the success he’s seen, there are a number of
stellar athletes around him who make plays. The star receiver
all year has been DeSean Jackson, who is averaging nearly 90 yards
per game and more than 16 per catch with nine touchdown receptions.
Behind him is wide receiver Riley Cooper, who has a slightly better
receiving average and one fewer touchdown reception despite not
being the deep threat that Jackson is. Because of the open nature
of their offense, the Eagles are one of the most prolific and
efficient passing attacks in the league and are the only team
with 30 or more touchdowns with single-digit interceptions, respectively
25 and two of which came from their current quarterback.
Barring unforeseen circumstances or divine intervention, Philadelphia
should have a veritable field day against a Dallas pass defense
who gives up the second most yards and touchdowns in the league
while also recording the second fewest sacks and only an average
number of interceptions. After surrendering nine touchdowns to
backup quarterbacks in the last three games while only forcing
two interceptions and three sacks, there is little in recent history
to suggest the Cowboys have what it takes to slow down, let alone
stop, the Eagles' wide-open passing attack. Only four times all
season, and not since Week 7, has Dallas held their opponent to
fewer than 21 points. Instead, they have been forced to rely on
outscoring opponents to earn a victory—something they will
be looking to do one more time to sneak into the playoffs by virtue
of their undefeated record in the division, despite going 2-7
outside of it.
Running Game Thoughts: The best ground game in the league once
again belongs to the Eagles after a brief hiatus from dominance
earlier in the season. At 161.9 yards per game, they are more
than 19 yards clear of second place and only one other team has
scored more rushing touchdowns. On a per-carry basis they’re
also the top team, averaging 5.2 yards per touch, meaning they’re
less than 14 carries away from breaking 2,500 rushing yards, almost
certainly becoming the only team to do so this year. The ground
game all starts with the offensive line paving the way for running
back LeSean McCoy, who averages nearly 100 yards per game and
has scored two touchdowns in every other contest going back five
games, giving him a total of six during that time. After him come
running backs Chris Polk and Bryce Brown, who each scored a touchdown
last week, though Brown has seen touches more consistently as
the season has drawn toward its close. While McCoy is the unquestioned
starter in Philadelphia, his production on the ground does occasionally
lend to his needing to catch a breath on the sideline, meaning
that his touchdowns are sometimes poached by one of his backups.
Even without those scores, he turns in solid fantasy stat lines
nearly every weekend, and when he gets those touchdowns all to
himself, he goes off for a monster game.
If only by one position, the Cowboys rush defense escapes the
bottom five, and the 16 touchdowns they’ve allowed this
season is one ranking less bad at seventh worst. They also have
the third worst yards-per-carry against average. In every way
that Dallas is exceptionally bad against the run, the Eagles are
exceptionally stellar, setting the stage for their offense to
wholly overwhelm the Cowboys defense. Were it not for home field
advantage and whatever boost the crowd in Arlington can provide,
there would be nothing from this matchup that would favor the
Cowboys. In three of the past five games Dallas opponents have
gained more than 149 yards on the ground, and a fourth rushed
for triple digits against them. Considering that linebacker Sean
Lee (neck) is going to miss the season finale and that Dallas
will once again be without their vocal and physical leader in
the middle of the defense, the Cowboys will be lucky to keep Philadelphia
from literally running away with the game and thus the division
title.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 260 pass yds, 3 TDs / 20 rush yds
LeSean McCoy: 150 rush yds, 2 TD / 30 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 50 rec yards
Passing
Game Thoughts: After being diagnosed with a herniated disk,
Tony Romo has been all but ruled out for the remainder of the
season, which may be only this weekend if backup Kyle Orton can’t
pull off an unexpected home upset. The veteran will see his first
start since being traded to Kansas City in the middle of the 2011
season, though the 31-year-old will find himself in the biggest
game he’s played in a number of seasons. In the past two
regular seasons the Cowboys have seen their year come to an unceremonious
close as two NFC East opponents beat them for the division title
and their only shot at a playoff spot in all-or-nothing games.
Once again the Cowboys find themselves in a win-or-go-home situation,
needing to beat Philadelphia to sweep the division and sneak into
the playoffs by virtue of a tiebreaker. Even with Romo under center
Dallas has been marginally above average as a passing attack,
recording 240 yards per game and scoring a top-three 31 touchdowns
combined with a sixth-fewest 10 interceptions. All of those numbers
belong to the now sidelined quarterback, and the fate of the team
lies with a veteran backup who has attempted only five passes
all season. Orton's top receiving target will likely be star Dez
Bryant, who has stated his intent to play despite officially being
listed as Questionable because of his back. Other popular pass
catchers will likely be Terrance Williams and tight end Jason
Witten, who, combined with Bryant, account for 2,547 receiving
yards and 25 touchdowns, 65.8 percent and 80.6 percent of team
totals, respectively. While the assumption is that Orton won’t
be able to replicate the success that Romo has achieved this season
with the offensive weapons that are around him, the veteran has
been given a prime opportunity to be the savior that Dallas needs
for what could be the last game of their season.
In addition to all that the Cowboys passing offense has going
for it, the Philadelphia pass defense will do their part to add
to the advantage that Dallas ought to have. The Eagles give up
the third most yards per game (285) and are at or below average
in opponent’s completion percentage, touchdowns surrendered,
and yards allowed per attempt. Aside from interceptions, where
they’re in the top quarter of the league, the Eagles are
at best mediocre against the pass. In winning six of the last
seven games, Philadelphia has allowed more than their season average
in four of those and held their opponent to less than 200 passing
yards only once, so their success has been far more related to
their offense than their defense. That means that even if Orton
has a monster game, Dallas may still fall short of the playoffs.
And while the ultimate goal of each team is making the postseason,
fantasy coaches still active this weekend will definitely have
their eyes on this Sunday night matchup. Orton isn’t likely
to have a significant game from a fantasy perspective, but if
desperate times call for desperate measures, he may be worth a
flier if there are no other reasonable options.
Running Game Thoughts: After being unable to play in their first
matchup, running back DeMarco Murray has to be chomping at the
bit to play in this division rivalry. Considering how his starting
quarterback will be unavailable, he’ll be all the more motivated
to not only get into the game but to have a gigantic impact on
it. On the season he’s top ten in rushing yards, sixth in
touchdowns, and fourth in rushing yards per game; since Week 10
he’s been even better, ranking as the third best RB in most
formats from that point forward. Dallas is one of the ten worst
rushing teams, so while Murray has been great, the rest of the
team has contributed very little, to the tune of 96.5 yards per
game and 12 rushing touchdowns, 82.5 and 9 of which come from
the primary ball carrier. After running back Lance Dunbar (knee)
was lost for the season, backup duties have fallen on Joseph Randle,
though through the last six games he’s carried only nine
times in one contest, recording zero touches in the other five.
For fantasy owners, this is spectacular news, because any time
the Cowboys rush the ball it is almost guaranteed to be in the
hands of Murray, and since the passing attack has a number of
question marks this weekend, the running game, and thus the star
running back, will be all the more important.
A strong reliance on the rushing attack may actually play into
the hands of the Eagles defense, who have been particularly stingy
on the ground despite being particularly generous through the
air. Since Week 10 they’ve allowed just one touchdown to
a running back who isn’t the Vikings third-string man. On
the season they’ve been better than most, allowing 107.5
yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns. On a per-carry basis
Philadelphia is in the top three, surrendering only 3.8 per rush
despite facing more attempts than the majority of the league.
In the last five games opponents have surpassed 90 yards only
once, so while Dallas may aim to run more than usual and Murray
will earn the majority if not all of those carries, they will
have their work cut out for them against the Eagles run defense.
In a winner-take-all bout each team will look to lean on their
most reliable strengths, and unfortunately for the Cowboys that
is likely to ultimately result in the advantage residing with
Philadelphia.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
DeMarco Murray: 70 rush yds
Dez Bryant: 80 rec yds
Jason Witten: 40 rec yards
Prediction: Eagles 41, Cowboys 17 ^ Top
|