Don’t look now, but the Jacksonville Jaguars—yes,
those Jacksonville Jaguars—might be making a late-season
playoff push, and it’s all centered around their suddenly
emerging passing game. There aren’t many wide receiver duos
hotter than Zay Jones and Christian Kirk at the moment. Over their
past six games, Kirk is averaging over 17 fantasy points per contest
while Jones checks in with over 18 points per game after his absurd
three-touchdown game against the Cowboys this past week. They
do have a fairly tough matchup this week against a Jets defense
that has been above-average against opposing wide receivers this
season, but they’ve also allowed at least two wide different
opposing receivers to go over 11 fantasy points against them in
four straight contests. That bodes well for the Jaguars duo who
should be heavily targeted again this week.
Even with the return of Dallas Goedert this week, the tight end
position remains extremely top-heavy with a bunch of mediocre
options after Travis Kelce. One of the players who’s stood out
as of late, though, is Jaguars tight end Evan Engram. Engram has
seen his opportunities skyrocket over the past three weeks. He
saw seven targets against the Lions in Week 13, then had a ridiculous
15-target game against the Titans in Week 14 before this past
week’s 10-target game against the Cowboys. That’s 32 targets over
his past three games—and he’s been productive with the opportunities,
as well, turning in a pair of 14-point fantasy days to go along
with a near 40-point outing in Week 14. Now he faces a Jets defense
that has given up touchdowns to tight ends in back-to-back games,
so don’t be afraid to load up Engram in your tight end spot again
this week.
With all the Jaguars pass-catchers listed in the “Favorites”
portion of this article, it’s tough to really say that quarterback
Trevor Lawrence isn’t himself a must-start option, but he
just plays a position that has a lot more competition. If you’ve
been rolling with Lawrence lately, you’ve been extremely
happy with the results you’ve been getting and by all means,
continue to trust him as long as the Jacksonville offense is moving
the ball as efficiently as it is. But if you’re someone
who’s normally starting a quarterback like Geno Smith, Dak
Prescott, or Lamar Jackson, then you’ve got some thinking
to do about potential upside in this matchup. Lawrence is up against
a Jets defense that has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks this season and with the exception of
their two games against Josh Allen, they’ve now held eight
of the past 10 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 17 fantasy
points. Add in the unfortunate news that we’re expected
to see some significant rain and wind in this game, and it just
doesn’t look like a great week to be benching other solid
QB options for Lawrence.
Etienne has really taken a backseat to the Jaguars’ passing
game in recent weeks. He was able to surprise most by rushing
for 103 yards against the Cowboys this past week, but he’d
previously been held under 55 rushing yards in four straight games,
which coincides with the recent breakout we’ve seen from
Trevor Lawrence. Unfortunately, Lawrence’s success hasn’t
really translated into more opportunities for Etienne in the passing
game, either, as he has contributed just five receptions over
his past four games. He also hasn’t scored a touchdown since
Week 9. Etienne is still seeing enough volume on the ground to
be a low-end RB2/Flex for most teams, but he has to face a tough
New York defense this week that ranks in the bottom-10 worst matchups
for opposing running backs this season.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
It’s nice that we’ve gotten to the point that a nearly 14-point
performance is considered a “down week” for rookie wide receiver
Garrett Wilson, but that’s what we’ve gotten from him in now two
straight contests. This is great news considering that he’s been
dealing with a change—and let’s be honest, it’s a downgrade—at
quarterback as Mike White went down with an injury and the team
has gone back to Zach Wilson. Garrett Wilson’s continued usage
is inspiring for fantasy, though, as he’s now seen at least seven
targets in six of his past seven contests. He’s producing solid
WR2 numbers just about every week while also delivering a WR1
ceiling, so feel confident firing him up in your lineup again
as he matches up against a Jacksonville defense that ranks as
a top-10 matchup for opposing wide receivers this season.
An ankle injury has running back Zonovan Knight listed as questionable
heading into Thursday night’s game, and it may have contributed
to what was the first true dud of his fantasy football career.
Knight ran the ball just 13 times for 23 yards, didn’t catch a
pass, and failed to score a touchdown against the Lions in Week
15, which certainly has fantasy managers worried as we near the
end of the playoffs. It is worth considering, though, that the
matchup against Detroit—who are normally a pretty terrible defense—was
actually a fairly tough one, as they have been surprisingly great
at containing opposing running backs this season. This week, however,
Knight faces a Jaguars defense that is a top-10 matchup for running
backs, and they have given up at least 24 total fantasy points
to opposing teams’ running backs in each of their past three games.
Knight has played fewer snaps than teammate Michael Carter in
each of the Jets’ past two games, but he’s still dominating the
team’s running back touches, having touched the ball 32 times
during this two-game stretch. Knight isn’t a must-start and we’ll
have to pay attention to his ankle, but all signs point to him
suiting up and he should probably be in most fantasy lineups in
this great matchup.
While rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson continues to produce
at a high level despite the Jets’ quarterback carousel,
the same unfortunately cannot be said for Elijah Moore and Corey
Davis. Davis missed this past week’s contest due to a concussion
and has been battling various injuries throughout the season which
has made him tough to start, but Moore is now averaging just over
seven fantasy points per game in the contests he plays. He had
an opportunity to play increased snaps with Davis out this past
week, but actually saw his snap share drop by a few percentage
points from what it was in the previous game. The fact that he
was unable to produce in what was one of the best on-paper situations
he could’ve possibly had just goes to show that he is not
someone we can trust in fantasy lineups at the moment. Davis or
Moore might sneak into the end zone and deliver a decent fantasy
day, but this is Garrett Wilson’s passing game and in a
Thursday game with a low over/under, now isn’t the time
to be rolling the dice on other New York pass catchers.
There haven’t been many offensive highlights for the Saints in
2022 outside of a strong rookie campaign from Olave. One positive
development, however, has been the ongoing emergence of Johnson,
who converted from receiver to tight end. After a slow start,
the former Duck has scored seven touchdowns in his last seven
games -- that puts him behind only Travis Kelce (12) in TDs among
tight ends. The yardage and receptions are lagging, so he’s very
touchdown dependent. Still, at a position that has been thinned
out by injury, Johnson is worth trying as a middling TE1.
Despite being a tight end in the loosest sense of the word, Hill
continues to be useable at the position in fantasy leagues where
he’s the biggest weekly lottery ticket there is. A week
ago, Hill ran for 30 yards and threw for 80 yards with a TD. Two
games prior to that he managed 20 yards total. In a game where
points may be at a premium, don’t be surprised if the Browns
get quite a few looks at Hill, who once again checks in as a fringe
No. 1 tight end with an attractive ceiling and a very low floor.
Fade: N/A
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Most expected Chubb and Hunt to be a potent one-two punch. Through
15 games, Chubb has 272 touches to Hunt’s 138, much of which came
in the first five weeks as the No. 2 tailback has topped 10 touches
once in the past six games. The fact that he hasn’t emerged as
a target out of the backfield has been particularly disappointing.
Despite his limited work, Hunt has some tangible upside in Week
16 against the Saints after Atlanta deployed a two-pronged backfield
assault last Sunday for 191 yards and 2 TDs. As a flex, Hunt has
the potential to help fantasy owners.
In three games with Watson as the triggerman, the Browns have
scored 29 points on offense. As it happens, the Clemson product’s
best statistical effort came in a loss with him passing for a
measly 161 yards last Saturday against the Ravens. Considering
how offensively challenged the Saints often are, don’t be surprised
if Cleveland plays things conservatively again in Week 16. As
such, Watson feels like a stretch to be plugged into anyone’s
fantasy lineup.
It’s tough to endorse any receiver a week after the team passes
for 97 yards, but first-time starter Desmond Ridder clearly felt
most comfortable throwing to London, who was targeted on 11 of
the 26 passes and finished with seven catches for 70 yards. While
that’s sure to draw Baltimore’s attention defensively, you must
figure they’ll stack the box and make Ridder beat them over the
top. That should create chances for London, who rates as low-end
WR3.
We know the Falcons want to run the ball. The Ravens know the
Falcons want to run the ball. The question is, can they? A week
ago, the tandem of Patterson (14-52-1) and Allgeier (17-139-1)
blistered the Saints. New Orleans is a bottom-10 run defense,
though, whereas the Ravens rank third in the NFL at 85.6 yards
allowed per game. You can still consider both viable RB3/flex
commodities, but the downside is palpable.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Of the team’s 63 offensive snaps a week ago, Dobbins played just
24, which he somehow parlayed into 125 yards on 13 carries. That
was more than double the amount of plays that Gus Edwards (11)
got, though it was surprisingly matched by Justice Hill (24).
That breakdown really undercuts Edwards’ appeal heading into Week
16, pushing him into flex territory at best. Dobbins is a home-run
hitter, even post injury, but the Ravens seem cautious to put
too heavy of a load on his shoulders. While Dobbins could be a
low-end RB2, he’s better viewed as a midrange RB3.
Robinson led the team in receptions last week with six. That’s
good. His six catches went for a combined 29 yards. That’s bad.
With Devin Duvernay (foot) hitting IR after injuring his foot
in practice, Robinson is the de facto No. 1 receiver in Baltimore.
He’d offer a little more appeal if Jackson returns. Even then,
Robinson is a sketchy flex.
Now seemingly fully recovered from the hamstring injury that
cost him most of Week 13, Tee Higgins should be back in fantasy
lineups again. He does have a difficult matchup against a New
England defense that has done a fairly good job of containing
opposing wide receivers. They did just hold Davante Adams to four
catches for 28 yards this past week, but they’ve otherwise struggled
against some of the other top receivers. Ja’Marr Chase is definitely
the top pass-catcher in the Cincinnati passing game, but Higgins
is still seeing plenty of opportunities in this high-powered offense.
If you take out the Week 14 game in which he was taken out of
the game almost immediately, Higgins has otherwise averaged almost
nine targets per game over his other five most recent contests.
Mixon is still the top running back in the Cincinnati offense,
but things have been getting a lot closer between him and Samaje
Perine in the recent weeks since Mixon returned to the lineup.
The snap share has been about 60/40 in Mixon’s favor over
the past two weeks. While the touch distributions are closer to
75/25, this has still become a more difficult-to-predict situation,
especially with Mixon rushing 11 times for just 21 yards this
past week. Mixon has proven that he can still be a contributor
in the passing game as he caught five passes this past week, but
he’s been a weak fantasy producer over these past two games.
With the Patriots having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points
to opposing running backs this season, this is a situation that
fantasy managers may simply want to avoid if they have other decent
options.
Week 15 saw Tyler Boyd score his first touchdown since all the
way back in Week 8, but fantasy managers shouldn’t start
projecting that he’s going to suddenly become a significant
fantasy producer this deep into the season, especially now that
Higgins appears to be back to full health. Boyd has seen five
or fewer targets in four straight contests and he has only exceeded
six targets twice all season. He’s a low-level PPR option
at best unless the Bengals are in a game script that forces them
to throw the ball 60-plus times. That’s unlikely to happen
against the slow-paced Patriots.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
This seems like a cop-out, but truly—this offense is terrible
other than Rhamondre Stevenson. Even players like Jakobi Meyers—who
we’ve spent nearly two seasons relying on as a solid PPR WR3—have
become fantasy afterthoughts in this embarrassingly bad offensive
situation. Meyers hasn’t been targeted more than six times in
a game since Week 8, which is—not coincidentally—also the last
time he saw the end zone. Similarly, running back Damien Harris
could be back this week, but he, too, has been terrible even when
he’s had opportunities. With Stevenson dominating both the carries
and the catches out of the backfield, Harris is an easy player
to avoid right now.
If you saw last week’s Bears-Eagles game, you may have noticed
DeVonta Smith, Philly’s No. 2 wideout, torch Chicago for 126 yards
on five receptions. You can rest assured the Bills saw it, too.
That should bode well for Davis, who, while highly inconsistent,
has shown himself capable of some big games. Granted, he hasn’t
topped 70 yards since Nov. 13, which makes using Davis a risk.
Anyone looking for a high-upside matchup can feel justified rolling
the dice on Davis as their No. 3 receiver.
The Bears have a porous run defense, allowing 143.9 yards per
game on the ground, which ranks 27th in the league. On paper,
that’s a plus matchup. Is that what the Bills want
to do, however? Buffalo has the personnel to attack Chicago multiple
ways, and to their credit, the Bears did a solid job of limiting
Philly’s stout running game a week ago. The thinking here
is that the Bills lean on Allen’s right arm early, and if
they put Chicago in a hole they’ll look to Singletary and/or
Cook to protect the lead (and Allen). Consider Singletary a middling
RB3 with Cook as a risk/reward flex for desperate owners.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Somebody has to catch the ball, right? RIGHT!?!? With Darnell
Mooney (ankle) on IR and Chase Claypool (knee) missing last week,
Fields’ “weapons” are even more limited than usual. His most reliable
option is Kmet, who led the team in targets (5) and receptions
(4) during their Week 15 loss to Philadelphia. Those numbers don’t
jump off the page to be sure, and there are no guarantees with
Chicago’s offense at this stage other than Fields’ running ability.
Still, at a thin position like tight end, Kmet’s primary role
and upside make him a low-end fantasy starter.
Herbert (hip) hasn’t played since Nov. 13 due to a hip injury.
He was designated to return from IR earlier this week and has
a good chance to be activated before the Week 16 kickoff. Even
if that happens, the savvy move is to keep the second-year back
on ice for at least one week. Odds are the Bears will ease Herbert
back in a bit, making him a very risky choice at a critical time
of year for fantasy owners.
Although he’s been quiet the past two games, totaling just
65 yards on seven catches, Slayton surpassed 85 yards receiving
in three of his previous four games. A meeting with the Vikings
might be just what he needs to get back on track. For the season,
only the Titans have allowed more passing yards than Minnesota
(278.8 per game), and only the Lions have surrendered more yards
per attempt (7.9). The bend but don’t break style Minnesota
has favored has helped the team win a lot of close games. At the
same time, it lets opponents put up big numbers. Consider Slayton
a flex with solid upside.
Even at this late stage of the season, Jones has yet to throw
for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns in the same game.
His rushing exploits keep him on the outskirts of fantasy relevance
with five TDs on the ground and five outings of 50 yards or more.
Most weeks, Jones should be summarily left on your bench. Given
the Vikings’ issues outlined above, however, this is one
week where rolling the dice on Jones seems to be defensible. The
Vikings have not handled mobile quarterbacks particularly well
this year, giving Jones some juice for those in need of a one-week
option.
Fade: N/A
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
With the Vikings playing from behind much of the past two weeks,
Cousins has thrown a ton, passing for 885 yards, 6 TDs, and 2
INTs combined. He’s also taken 10 sacks. Certainly, Minnesota
would like to feature a more balanced attack against the Giants,
which rank 30th in run defense (150.4 yards per game). There’s
also a case to be made for riding the hot hand, which Cousins
would certainly qualify as. At this point it feels like you probably
should pencil in Cousins as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but
at least explore your alternatives as there’s some sneaky
downside in this one.
Yes, Osborn had a huge game last Saturday, hauling in 10 passes
for 157 yards and a touchdown. Don’t overreact. The third-year
receiver has been an afterthought for most of 2022, topping 50
yards in a game just one other time this season, and he is, at
best, the fourth option in the passing game behind Jefferson,
Hockenson, and Adam Thielen (and probably Cook as well). Leave
him on your bench as two good games out of 15 aren’t the kind
of odds you’ll want to play in Week 16.
Goff has gone from punch line to prime-time performer. Prior
to a touch matchup with a very good Jets defense last week (where
he posted a respectable 252 yards and a TD), he had posted back-to-back
300+ yard efforts and three straight games with multiple TD passes
while completing over 70% in that stretch. He’s a low-end
starter if you’re in a playoff jam this week with Carolina
on his plate. Look for an uptick this week with a floor of a high-end
QB2.
There has been a concerted effort to get the ball in Swift’s
hands in recent weeks. He has had at least 17 combined carries/targets
in two of the Lions’ last three games, and posted 75 total yards
against a very good Jets defense in Week 15. If given the chance,
he can do more of the same against this Panthers defense. However,
one never quite knows how the touches are going to shake out between
he and Jamaal Williams, and Williams is normally the favored number
near the goal line, which will cap Swift’s fantasy production.
Raymond had a nice pop in production last week (5-53-0) as D.J.
Chark had a tough time with the Jets’ corner tandem in Week
15. But expect Chark and St. Brown to be the priority in the passing
game again this week, leaving Raymond as the third option in this
attack.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Foreman’s numbers were alarming last week against the Steelers
– just 10 yards on 10 carries but expect him to bounce back
this week. The Panthers want to run the ball, and Foreman had
at least 20 carries in three of the previous four contests, and
at least 100 rushing yards in four of the previous seven. He’s
a solid RB2 option in your fantasy playoffs.
Moore is the top receiving option in this offense with 103 and
73-yard days sandwiched around a zero-catch Week 14 performance
in Seattle since Sam Darnold stepped back under center. But this
has become a ground and pound offense under Steve Wilkes, and
unless he scores, or the Panthers are forced into a game of catch-up,
he won’t be a boom candidate.
Darnold has been doing a solid job for a mildly resurgent Panthers
team, but he has not been on the fantasy radar. However, people
keep talking about how bad this Lions defense is. It was. It’s
not anymore. They have three games of under 300 yards passing,
including two under 200 yards passing allowed in the last six
games, and in that same stretch, they’ve posted 18 sacks.
If there was any question, owners should stay away from Sam Darnold.
Geno has been on a roll this season but suffered a setback last
week, finishing as the QB16 against one of the best defenses in
the league (SF). This week, the matchup is softer as the Chiefs
defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs including
a league-leading 30 TD passes. They also allowed Russell Wilson
to have his best game of the season just two weeks ago. Geno will
be without one of his key weapons as Tyler Lockett will miss this
game with a finger injury. That should allow DK Metcalf to be
peppered with targets against a defense that plays its fair share
or man-to-man coverage. Count me in on DK this week, even at a
chilly Arrowhead stadium.
Walker returned last week after missing Week 14 with an ankle
injury. His usage was good, playing 75 percent of the snaps, spitting
time with Travis Homer (25%). Tony Jones has been released which
should leave Walker and Homer locked into their roles moving forward.
Walker isn’t the best-looking play on paper with Seattle being
a 10-point underdog, but volume should be in his favor as he logged
an 86% share of the Seattle running back carries last week and
has been used in the pass game when Seahawks find themselves in
a negative game script. Assuming he’s not limited by his ankle
injury, Walker is mid-range RB2 in Week 16.
Marquise Goodwin will be stepping into a bigger role this week
with Tyler Lockett (finger) out and the matchup is certainly enticing
as the Chiefs have given up the most TDs (19) to the position.
Goodwin has had two spiked weeks this season including Week 14
against Carolina when he finished with a 5-95-1 line when he was
on the field for 76% of the plays. The opportunities should be
there if the most likely game scripts plays out with Seattle trailing
most of the day, making Goodwin a risky WR3.
Fade: N/A
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
McKinnon’s two-week tear has seen him find the endzone
four times and rack up 15 catches and 256 total yards. We know
he’s their trusted option on third down and after Pacheco
put on the ball on the ground last week and missed a blitz pickup
that resulted in a Mahomes’ sack, it wasn’t much of
a surprise that McKinnon found himself on the high end of the
62-35 snap share split with Pacheco against the Texans. As long
as this game remains reasonably close, McKinnon’s going
to be involved and there’s no sense trying to predict when
this train is going to stop. He’s a solid RB2 in juicy matchup
against the forgiving Seattle run defense.
For all the same matchup reasons mentioned above, this game sets
up nicely for Pacheco as well. Will there be any reluctance by
Andy Reid to limit Pacheco after his miscues last week? Not likely
when Ronald Jones is your only answer on the bench. Touch counts
for the rookie over the last five weeks: 16, 15, 23, 16, 16, 16.
A 16-touch floor as a 10-point favorite seems pretty safe as a
Flex play.
The Chiefs came into the season with the intention of spreading
the ball around at receiver and that’s exactly what they’ve done.
Kelce was always going to get his catches but after that, it’s
been tough to count on any of Andy Reid’s wideouts for consistent
production. Only JuJu Smith-Schuster has a chance at a 1000-yard
season as Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore
are all playing meaningful snaps. This week, Mecole Hardman returns
to the mix and will we see a bigger role for Kadarius Toney? There’s
too much guess work here and not enough clarity, making everyone
outside of JuJu a fade.
Moore posted 14 catches on 19 targets for 166 yards over the
last two games in the absence of the injured Brandin Cooks (calf).
Some will sit him now that Cooks is expected back. However, Moore
has earned more snaps, and the Texans will not be able to run
against the Titans front, so look for more throwing this week,
meaning plenty of opportunities for both Moore and Cooks.
Cooks returns from injury, and the Texans should be looking to
match up against a Titans defense that has allowed over 300 passing
yards in three straight games, and yielded an average of nearly
30 points per game in that same span. But soft-tissue injuries
are tough to manage, and I’m not sure how much work Cooks
will get, especially with Chris Moore playing well.
Driskel is listed as a TE in some leagues, so some owners were
flexing him due to the goal line work he was getting in the Texans’
QB platoon. But the ride has come to an end. It wasn’t working
last week, and Tennessee is tough against the run, particularly
down in the red zone, so I don’t expect much of a role here.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Let’s not overthink this. The Titans are reeling, losers of four
in a row, and the Texans are giving up 26.0 fantasy points per
game to RB’s this season, the most in the NFL. When Ryan Tannehill
sits and Malik Willis starts, the Titans have become even more
run-heavy than normal. HC Mike Vrabel is going to hand the ball
to Derrick and get this thing back on the rails.
With QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) likely done for the season, the
Titans will hand the ball to rookie Malik Willis. During his most
significant action of the season in Weeks 8 and 9, Dontrell Hilliard
was his top target in the passing game with 11 targets in two
games. Houston is tough against the pass, so when Tennessee has
to throw, I could see them giving Willis some high percentage
throws to Haskins when they're not handing the ball off to Henry.
The question is will he see enough volume?
As I’ve written several times through the season, Woods has been
a huge disappointment. Now his QB is out, and he’s facing a tough
pass defense in the Texans and the Titans pass attempts will be
minimal. There just won't be enough volume to consider either
one of these receivers.
McLaurin is the leader of this offense. He’s seen at least six
targets in his last eight games and quite frankly and is probably
Washington’s best option at moving the ball this week. There is
some intrigue at quarterback as Carson Wentz (finger) is now healthy
and back practicing with the team and if Heinicke continues to
struggle we could see a switch. Either way, the likely game script
will be Washington playing from behind and 40 throws from this
offense is in the range of outcomes. On a secondary note, Jahan
Dotson is now back playing a higher snap share than Curtis Samuel
and could be used as WR4.
It’s not a great week to be counting on Gibson or Robinson.
Sure, the Commanders love to ground and pound but the 49ers are
stout against the run, having allowed just 803 rushing yards to
the position and have allowed just 1 TD to a running back since
Week 5! Robinson has seen double-digit carries in eight out of
the ten games he’s played but is rarely used in the passing
game with just 9 catches on the season. Gibson had a higher snap
share last week (60%-38%) but was out-touched 13 to 7 by Robinson.
If you’re forced into choosing one of these backs, I’d
lean towards Gibson for his pass-catching ability but otherwise
steer clear.
The tight end position seems to be lost in this offense as the
running game and use of three wide receivers have taken priority.
In addition, Logan Thomas is splitting time with John Bates and
occasionally Cole Turner. Thomas played just 64% of the snaps
last week finishing with one catch for six yards. He had two usable
PPR week this season (Wk2, Wk11) otherwise it’s been bust city.
Take your tight end dart throw elsewhere.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
It’s tough to pick a favorite for the 49ers as this offense has
turned into the Christian McCaffrey show the last three weeks.
We could see a spiked week from Brandon Aiyuk with Deebo Samuel
out, but the safer bet is probably Kittle even though his usage
is a little flimsy. Sure, he’s on the field for just about every
play, but the last time he’s seen more than 5 targets was Week
11 and he has only one double-digit target game this season. Still,
he’s so good after the catch that he can be incredibly efficient
(like we saw last week) when turned four catches into 93 yards
and 2 TDs. He did the same thing back in Week 11 (4-84-2). Brock
Purdy has probably two passing TDs in his likely outcome this
week and if we’re choosing the recipients, Kittle has to be high
on the list above the wide receivers.
Purdy has thrown exactly 2 TDs in his last three games but his
low yardage numbers are keeping his fantasy finishes in check
(QB15, QB8-rush TD, QB18). Washington has allowed just one 300-yard
passing game all season and with an O/U of 37.5, this doesn’t
seem like the spot for a spiked week for Purdy. In fact, nothing
about this matchup indicates we’ll see an explosion in pass
attempts by HC Kyle Shanahan who will likely continue to ride
Christian McCaffrey as long as he can. As a result, a mid-range
QB2 is the likely outcome for the rookie QB.
Theoretically, Aiyuk has stepped into the WR1 role for the 49ers
with Deebo Samuel out with an ankle injury but with just 7 targets
in his last two games, the usage with Purdy at the helm just hasn’t
been there. Wide receivers are inherently volatile and Aiyik could
pop up for a big game here, but I’d prefer to take my chances
with other options in the WR3 range like DeVonta Smith or Drake
London.
The Cowboys' defense has been great for most of the season, but
they’ve really been struggling against opposing wide receivers
as of late. Rookie Christian Watson lit them up for three touchdowns
back in Week 10 and they’ve now allowed six different receivers
to exceed 15 fantasy points against them over their past four
games. This past week it was Zay Jones who became the second wide
receiver to score three touchdowns against the Cowboys and while
his play style certainly more closely resembles that of A.J. Brown,
the Cowboys have also struggled against the likes of Christian
Kirk, Amari Rodgers, and Richie James as of late. There’s reason
to be worried that Gardner Minshew is a significant step down
from Jalen Hurts, but Minshew has proven to be a capable passer
before. He threw for a pair of touchdowns in both of his starts
for the Eagles in 2021 and he’s thrown for two or more scores
in 15 of the 22 games he’s started or played the majority of snaps
in throughout his career. DeVonta Smith has been red hot lately
with 292 receiving yards over his past three games, so don’t be
afraid to fire him up as a WR2 again this week.
While the wide receivers should continue to be useful even with
Minshew behind center, the same might not be quite as true for
tight end Dallas Goedert and running back Miles Sanders. Goedert
is expected to be back on the field this week after missing the
past five weeks with a shoulder injury, and certainly, the tight
end position is bad enough that he will probably be in most lineups,
but there’s no question that Goedert had developed some
real rapport with Hurts and that same level of comfort might not
be there with Minshew. Not to mention that we don’t know
for certain that he’s really back to full health.
For Sanders, the loss of Hurts could be borderline catastrophic.
The narrative that the team might “lean more on the running game”
is valid, but that could easily be counteracted by the fact that
the defense doesn’t have to worry nearly as much about Minshew
taking off and running on option plays as they do when Hurts is
on the field. Sanders has had some absolutely terrific fantasy
performances as of late when he’s been given a high workload,
so it’s understandable if fantasy managers want to play him, but
the Cowboys have been an excellent defense against opposing running
backs, having conceded the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the
position. Only three running backs—Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley
and Aaron Jones—have reached 15 fantasy points against the Dallas
defense this season. Sanders himself scored 14 against the Cowboys
when these teams played back in Week 6. That game saw the Cowboys
playing without Dak Prescott, however, and the Eagles dominated
for most of the afternoon which led to plenty of touches for Sanders.
The same might not be true this week as the Cowboys are actually
four-point favorites at home.
Dallas has struggled to contain opposing passing games as of
late and there are plenty of reasons to still like A.J. Brown
and DeVonta Smith, but you could be asking for trouble if you’re
firing up Gardner Minshew even as a QB2. The Cowboys have only
given up two or more passing touchdowns to five quarterbacks this
season. One of them was actually Jalen Hurts back in Week 6, but
that also came with only 155 passing yards from him, so the fantasy
impact was still relatively minimal. Minshew is a fine backup
quarterback but don’t get too sneaky here in the fantasy
playoffs.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
The Cowboys running game continues to crush for fantasy even
when Dallas loses games. This past week marked the sixth time
in his past seven games that Tony Pollard has scored at least
14 fantasy points and he’s now averaging a ridiculous 16.6 fantasy
points per game this season—a monumental number for a player who
is still in a full-blown backfield split. Pollard’s explosiveness
has been undeniable and while Ezekiel Elliott remains the team’s
primary goal-line back, Pollard has now himself contributed four
touchdowns over his past three games. The Eagles have a very good
defense, but they’ve been susceptible to allowing some decent
fantasy games, even to split backfields like the Cowboys’. Pollard
himself was held to 44 yards on just 11 carries against the Eagles
back in Week 6, but we should expect this game to have quite a
different game script with a potential multi-score Cowboys win
even possible, so don’t get too worried about what happened the
last time Pollard matched up against this defense.
Elliott has definitely been the beneficiary of extreme usage
at the goal line. He missed a pair of games midway through the
season, but he has otherwise scored at least once in seven straight
games, ranging all the way back to Week 6 when he scored against
this same Philadelphia defense. Now with the Eagles' defense looming
again, Elliott will likely need to get into the end zone again
if he’s going to return any sort of serious fantasy value.
He’s obviously been doing it, so there’s really no
reason to think that it won’t continue, but keep in mind
that the Cowboys running back would have scored 12 or fewer fantasy
points in every game this season if he had not scored touchdowns.
He isn’t contributing really anything in the passing game
and he hasn’t yet rushed for 100 yards, so there’s
a pretty low floor for him if he does fail to get into the end
zone.
Dak Prescott has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his past
seven games, so he’s certainly bringing a decent enough
floor to the table, but the ceiling has really not been there
from him here in 2022. Aside from his Week 8 matchup in which
he rushed for a touchdown, Prescott has otherwise failed to really
be a true needle-mover for fantasy. He now faces a tough Philadelphia
defense that has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to
opposing quarterbacks this season. The Eagles could realistically
struggle themselves on offense which would play right into what
the Cowboys like to do when they run the football like crazy,
so that would obviously further limit Prescott’s opportunity
to produce big numbers. He’s a fine low-end QB1, but this
could easily turn out to be one of his lowest-scoring games of
the year.
Tight end Dalton Schultz has found himself on the “fade”
list quite a few times this season and for good reason. Schultz
has now been targeted six or fewer times in four of his past five
games, including this past week in which he saw just four passes
come his way in an overtime shootout against the Jaguars. Tight
ends are rather fluky to begin with, other than the obvious studs,
so the touchdown-or-bust outlook that Schultz provides is pretty
normal, but he’s only scored a touchdown in two games this
season. With Dallas potentially leaning more heavily on their
running game than normal and the Eagles having avoided giving
up a touchdown to the position since Week 9, this seems like a
good time to leave Schultz on your bench if you have another option
who’s been getting more opportunities as of late.
After missing more than two months with a hamstring injury, Waller
returned last Sunday against the Patriots, hauling in all three
of his targeted passes for 48 yards and a touchdown. He played
only 33 snaps, compared to 38 for Foster Moreau. Expect that to
tilt back toward Waller as he shakes off the rust and proves he’s
back to full health. He entered the season a notch below the likes
of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews at the position, so his upside
is high-end TE1. While it may be a stretch to expect that so soon
after returning, Waller deserves a starting slot.
Like Waller, Renfrow returned from injury last Sunday. Unlike
Waller, Renfrow made no impact whatsoever, catching one pass for
14 yards. Coming off a year in which he had 103 receptions, 1,038
yards, and 9 TDs, the Clemson alum has never found his stride
alongside Adams, and at this point he’s working behind Mack
Hollins (60 snaps to 29) as well. With no games of more than 60
yards on the season, Renfrow should be ticketed for your bench
against the Steelers.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Johnson set season highs in both receptions (10) and yards (98)
during the team’s Week 15 win over Carolina. Unfortunately, that
doesn’t mean much for their Christmas Eve showdown with the Raiders
as that came with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and Kenny Pickett
(concussion) is expected to return this week. Johnson now has
77 receptions on the season and yet remains without a touchdown
-- that is easily the highest number in the NFL with Kalif Raymond
and Ben Skowronek tied for second-most among wideouts with 39.
At best, Johnson is a decent WR3 this Saturday.
With two grabs last Sunday, Pickens has now caught more than
three passes in a game just once in his last seven. He has managed
to top 50 yards receiving four times during that stretch, however,
which speaks to his downfield ability. Still, the rookie has fallen
well behind Johnson in terms of volume -- he has been targeted
16 times in the past four games to Johnson’s 37. The Raiders
rank 26th in pass defense, so there should be opportunities, but
Pickens would be a risky choice.
The 2022 season has largely been a disappointment for the Packers,
but two players who’ve really been heating up for them as
of late—at least for fantasy purposes—have been running
backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The duo absolutely torched the
Rams this past week, with Dillon delivering a pair of scores on
the ground to go along with 71 total yards, while Jones scored
a touchdown of his own on 126 total yards. Jones has now provided
at least 14 fantasy points in six of his past eight games and
he’s caught multiple passes in every game this season. Dillon,
on the other hand, went on a 10-game stretch in which he failed
to reach double-digit fantasy points, but he’s now scored
17 or more points in three straight contests while scoring at
least once in all of those games. This duo now faces a Miami defense
that has been getting smashed by running backs. Opposing team
RBs have averaged over 26 total fantasy points against this defense
over their past seven games and that’s a good enough reason
to trust Jones as a low-end RB1 and Dillon as an RB2/Flex.
It was certainly disappointing that a multi-score victory for
the Packers over the Rams in Week 15 didn’t produce more fantasy
results for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game. Rodgers
finished as the QB22 for the week while failing to throw for multiple
touchdowns for the fifth time this season. In fact, other than
his Week 10 performance in which he threw three touchdown passes
to Christian Watson, Rodgers has otherwise failed to reach three
scores in any other game this season. That doesn’t sound like
much of an endorsement, but if there’s a time for him to finally
buck his recent trend and get back into fantasy relevance, it’s
probably this week against this terrible Miami secondary. The
Dolphins have given up at least 16 fantasy points to an opposing
QB in every game they’ve played since Week 1 and they’ve conceded
the third-most total fantasy points to the position so far this
season. They’ve really struggled against the more mobile quarterbacks
they’ve faced and Rodgers is certainly not that anymore, but the
Packers could find themselves in a shootout in this one, which
would be huge for his potential fantasy outlook. Don’t bench obvious
studs for Rodgers, but he’s probably available in a lot of leagues
and you could do worse if you’re looking for a replacement for
Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, or another injured QB.
Rookie Christian Watson failed to score a touchdown for the first
time since Week 9 this past week, but now we’re looking
at a real opportunity for him to produce. Watson has been targeted
at least six times in five straight games and, more importantly,
he’s seeing a lot of chances in the red zone. He’s
still somewhat of a boom-or-bust type of player, but that’s
exactly what some managers need as their WR3/Flex here in the
fantasy playoffs.
There was something to be said for Allen Lazard’s high
usage earlier this season, but things have really tapered off
for him as of late. The Packers wide receiver has now been targeted
just 11 times over his past three games, which has been good enough
for just under a 13 percent target share over that stretch. In
fact, if you go back to Week 11, he’s now been targeted
six or fewer times in four of his past five games. This, of course,
directly coincides with the late-season breakout we’ve seen
from Christian Watson, so it might be more of a trend than it
initially looked like. Lazard really needs to start seeing some
more opportunities before fantasy managers should start trusting
him again.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
A player with a high yards-per-reception like Jaylen Waddle is
almost always going to have some streakiness to him, so those
who stayed the course after a couple of bad games and started
him this past week against the Bills were rewarded as he delivered
a nice 20-point fantasy day despite only catching three passes.
Waddle is definitely behind Tyreek Hill in the Miami passing game
pecking order, but he’s by far the second option in what
has been a high-powered attack this season. The Packers have been
good against opposing wide receivers this season, but we’re
not looking for a huge volume game from Waddle—we just need
him to do what he normally does and connect with Tua on a few
long passes. That should be good enough for him to provide some
useful fantasy numbers.
The Dolphins' passing game has been carrying them throughout
most of the season, but this past week it was actually their running
game, headed by Raheem Mostert, that allowed them to nearly squeeze
out a win on the road against the Bills. Mostert rushed for a
season-high 136 yards in that contest, dominating the snaps out
of the Miami backfield in the process. His day could have been
even bigger had he been on the field when fellow running back
Salvon Ahmed scored. Mostert is expected to continue to be the
team’s primary back going forward, but there is a little bit of
worry about his workload as teammate Jeff Wilson is expected to
be back on the field. The team had recently transitioned back
to Mostert over Wilson prior to the injury, but Wilson is still
much more of a threat to Mostert’s workload than Ahmed was, which
is why we have he’s “on the fence” as opposed to being a “favorite.”
Once looked at as a legitimate potential MVP candidate this season,
Tua Tagovailoa has regressed as of late, back into the QB2 range
for fantasy. He hasn’t been truly detrimental, but he’s
just not providing the high-end games that we became accustomed
to earlier this season when he was pummeling defenses for three-or-more
scores seemingly every week. He now faces a Green Bay defense
that has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks so far this season. They’ve only given up one
game of three-or-more touchdowns on the year. Tua is absolutely
capable of breaking the trends and producing a solid fantasy game,
but he’s been looking shaky and it’s probably wise
to look elsewhere if you have other borderline QB1 options to
roll with this week.
Murray is a hold your nose play and hope the volume is there
in a game with a very low total (36.5), especially considering
there are no weather issues in LA. Murray turned 25 touches last
week into 142 total yards and a score against a weak Cardinals
team struggling to move the ball with backup quarterbacks. Baker
Mayfield is technically the starter for the Rams but has only
played two games with his new team and despite the heroics against
the Raiders, isn’t fully adjusted to this offense. Translation:
this should be another low-scoring affair meaning game-script
shouldn’t get away from Denver allowing 20 touches for their
veteran RB and nice RB2 floor.
The Rams certainly aren’t the shutdown defense we’ve seen in
prior years but they’re not a pushover either. They’ve been decent
against fantasy quarterbacks even without Aaron Donald, but have
given up some big days to No.1 fantasy receivers including both
Seattle guys, Chris Olave, Deebo Samuel and Stefon Diggs. Jeudy
isn’t on par with those wideouts and we’ll see if Courtland Sutton
(hamstring) gets back on the field this week, but if anyone is
going to have a big game against this bunch it will be Jeudy.
He’s had 15 catches in his last two games averaging 75 yards and
scored three times against the Chiefs. The concern is, will Russell
Wilson revert back to what he’s been for a big chunk of the season,
or do we get a better version of Russ, which we saw in Week 14
before his concussion?
The role has been nice for Dulcich but the production has been
hit or miss, with too many misses. Last week, the Broncos were
thin at receiver and decided to play four tight ends to pick up
the slack. The result was a slight decrease in snaps for the rookie
tight end and only 2 targets for one catch for 11 yards. If Courtland
Sutton continues to miss, we might see a similar scenario which
would put a wet blanket on Dulcich’s fantasy value.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
On a team void of skill position players we want to play in fantasy
football, Cam Akers stands out as the best of the bunch for the
Rams. He saw a 76% snap share last week against the Packers, handled
15 touches, and seems to be Sean McVay’s preferred option in the
backfield as Malcolm Brown and Kyren Williams combined for just
11 snaps. The Rams have scored 17 and 12 points with Baker at
quarterback which doesn’t translate for a lot of scoring opportunities
for Akers… or anyone else on the team for that matter. That alone
keeps Akers ceiling at a middling RB2 level but this is where
we are with the Rams.
The Rams lost Ben Skowronek (calf) for the rest of the season
which leaves the receiving duties to Jefferson and the 165-pound
Atwell. Facing the leagues’ best pass defense with a quarterback
two games into his tenure with the team isn’t a recipe for
success. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to
both quarterbacks and receivers this season. Let’s not get
cute here. Avoid the Rams passing game.
Fournette got the better usage between the two Tampa backs last
week and looks like a solid RB2 floor option this week in a plus
matchup against the Cardinals defense. Fournette was in on 58%
of the snaps last week compared to 39% White and out-touched him
14 to 12. The split usage caps the upside of both but we could
see an elevated floor for this offense here with the Bucs a 7.5-point
favorite against a Cardinals team quarterbacked by third-stringer
Trace McSorley.
After a middling fantasy season that has Brady ranked 15th among
qualifying quarterbacks, the veteran QB finds himself on the plus
end of the schedule this week facing a forgiving Cardinals defense
in comfy conditions while much of the league plays in freezing
temperatures. By all measures, Brady hasn’t been great and
Evans has been allergic to the endzone with only 3 touchdowns
on the season and none since Week 4. However, this could be a
spiked week for both given the positive matchup. Arizona has allowed
25 passing TDs, tied for 2nd most in the league with the Tennessee.
The matchup doesn’t get any better as the Cardinals have given
up the most fantasy points to the position but the Bucs are still
rotating three tight ends. Otton, Cameron Brate and rookie Ko
Keift are getting playing time and Brady has plenty of weapons
on the outside and out of the backfield to throw to. If you’re
in a pinch, I could see deploying Otton as a prayer given the
matchup, but otherwise I’d stay away.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Conner has seen at least a 90% snap share since Week 12 which
guarantees him a RB2 floor with easy RB1 upside whenever he finds
the endzone. The matchup isn’t great against a Bucs defense
that’s only given up 5 rushing TDs to the position but they
have given up four scores through the air and Conner is certainly
capable in the receiving game. Given the Arizona QB situation
and low team total, Conner isn’t a slam dunk no-brainer
this week, but the usage is more than comfortable enough to keep
him in fantasy lineups.
We’re used to Hopkins being a no-brainer but this week should
give us some pause as Trace McSorley gets the call at quarterback.
Hopkins will no doubt be on the field the majority of snaps and
should be the focus of the passing game but efficiency is a real
concern. McSorley has completed just 52% of his pass attempts
this season and has only played in six NFL games in the span of
three years. As a result, Hopkins is more of a WR2 than WR1 this
week.
The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback with
Kyler Murray (ACL) out for the season and Colt McCoy sidelined
with a concussion. McSorley has tossed three INTs and zero touchdowns
during his limited playing time this season. This isn’t the time
to be taking shots on secondary options in the passing game like
Marquise Brown or TE Trey McBride.
If I’m picking someone outside the obvious names listed
above, Kelley could be a smart play as a flex option. I think
Ekeler’s shoulder scare last week could alter the Bolts’
gameplan this time around. Look for Ekeler to play more in his
comfort zone as a receiver while LA works Kelley in as an early
down runner to try and keep Ekeler healthy for a potential postseason
run. Kelley has shown over recent seasons that he’s capable
of handling a load and the Colts have struggled at times against
the run.
When you’re the third wheel behind Keenan Allen and Mike
Williams it can be a while between targets. But Palmer has been
steady with eight straight games of 40+ yards (including two 100-yard
games) and has caught nine of 11 targets the last two weeks. Indy’s
corners are tough, so it’s not hard to see Palmer stuck
in the mix as a WR3 or flex option this week.
Fade: N/A
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Moss had 24 carries last week and seems to be the preferred replacement
for the IR-bound Jonathan Taylor. He averaged just 3.4 yards per
carry, but that’s manageable RB2 territory given the workload.
The Colts o-line has been atrocious all season, but the Chargers
are allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry on the season.
Expect lineman turned HC Jeff Saturday to run the ball extensively
to shorten the game and try and keep Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert
off the field.
Granson has been up and down all season, but so has the Colts’
QB play. New QB Nick Foles has always liked throwing to his tight
ends, and with the Colts trying to play ball control, I could
see Granson popping in the middle of the field, giving Foles a
big target and some high percentage looks in his first NFL game
in a year.
Pierce ranks second on the team in targets and is tied for second
in receiving yards. But he’s been shut out (zero catches)
three times over the last five weeks. He’s a deep threat,
but I don’t see Indy’s gameplan pushing the ball down
the field much this week. I’d expect another uneventful
outing for Pierce this week.
