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Favorites & Fades


Week 14

By: Nick Caron | HC Green | Eli Mack | John Fessel
Updated: 12/10/23

Thursday:

NE @ PIT


Sunday Early:

CAR @ NO | LAR @ BAL | IND @ CIN | JAX @ CLE

DET @ CHI | TB @ ATL | HOU @ NYJ


Sunday Late:

SEA @ SF | MIN @ LV | BUF @ KC | DEN @ LAC

PHI @ DAL


Monday:

GB @ NYG | TEN @ MIA

Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Patriots @ Steelers - (Green)
Line: PIT -5.5
Total: 30.5

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: None

Favorites: RB Ezekiel Elliott

With Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) dealing with a high ankle sprain, Elliott is in line for a lot of work Thursday night. He logged 21 combined touches for 92 yards in a relief role against the Chargers this past Sunday, and he figures to be the focal point of the offense on a short week. Obviously, this isnít the Elliott of days gone, but he has been used sparingly for much of 2023 and should have fresh legs. James Conner (25-105-2) had good success running on the Steelers in Week 13, and heís hardly the fleetest of foot. Elliott at least looks like an RB3 with some upside.

On the Fence: WR DeVante Parker

Parker (knee) is questionable with a knee injury, but if he suits up Thursday night, he should be WR1 as Demario Douglas (concussion), the teamís leading receiver, remains sidelined with a concussion after he missed Sundayís loss to LA. With Douglas out of action, Parker was Bailey Zappeís primary read, catching four of nine targeted passes for 64 yards, leading the team in all three categories. If youíre in need you could roll the dice on the former first-round pick as a flex.

Fade: N/A

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: None

Favorites: RB Jaylen Warren

Over his last five games, Warren is averaging 97 total yards per game and has scored a pair of touchdowns. All that has come while splitting touches with Najee Harris (knee), but Harris is dealing with a knee issue, so even if heís active Thursday night he might be in for a reduced workload. Plus, the insertion of Mitchell Trubisky into the starting lineup could lead to a heavier emphasis on the ground game in general, especially against the Pats, which have trouble scoring -- that could lead to Pittsburgh going very conservative in the belief New England canít beat them if they take care of the ball. Warren is a possible RB2 here.

On the Fence: WR Diontae Johnson

In Trubisky’s five starts a season ago, Johnson was the team’s leading receiver in four of them, averaging 7.4 receptions for 75.2 yards per game. For whatever reason, Johnson has always had the better chemistry with Trubisky than George Pickens, who has been Pittsburgh’s leading receiver recently. We’ll see how much the Steelers even decide to throw the ball, however, given Trubisky’s well-documented issues with ball security. As a WR3, Johnson could pay dividends.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Steelers 13, Patriots 9 ^ Top

Panthers @ Saints - (Hollis)
Line: NO -6.0
Total: 39.5

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: None

Favorites: RB Chuba Hubbard

The Carolina Panthers are the NFCís version of the New England Patriots. For most of this season, the Patriots have been Rhamondre Stevenson and a whole bunch of un-startable players. Thatís what the Panthers are now basically with Hubbard playing the role of Stevenson. Does Hubbad have a great match-up this week? Not really. The Saints rank 11th in fewest points given up to opposing running backs. But, Hubbard is about the only game in town at this point and has 196 yards gained and 3 touchdowns in his last two games. That makes him the new Rhamondre Stevenson.

On the Fence: Jonathan Mingo

If Hubbard has had a partner in crime in terms of fantasy production the past two weeks, it would be Mingo. After mostly quiet games this season as a rookie, Mingo has been targeted 16 times the past two weeks and has hauled in 10 of those targets for 60+ yards both weeks. That doesnít make a world beater. Iím not sure it even makes him a flex option. What it does mean, seemingly, is that the Panthers want to see what theyíve got in the young receiver going forward and are feeding him the ball as a result. I would expect plenty of targets in this game once again, if nothing else.

Fade: Bryce Young, Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, David Tepper (kidding/not kidding)

The shine is officially off of Adam Thielen as he has gone from being an early season top-10 overall fantasy WR to falling out of the top-20. Defenses seem to know heís the primary threat in the passing game and have found it easy to take him out of commission. Itís been 8 weeks since he last caught a touchdown pass or had 75 or more receiving yards in a game. Thatís the very definition of fading. As for Young and Sanders, I hope they have been out of your lineup for some time or never in it in the first place. David Tepper needs to find a good offensive coach for this team and then leave him alone to do his job.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: RB Alvin Kamara

Update: Taysom Hill is not expected to play.

Favorites: TE Taysom Hill (foot)

As of this writing, Hill is listed as Questionable, but itís probably because heís sore from all the things he did last week. Namely, he ran the ball a season-high 13 times and nearly gained 60 yards while scoring a rushing touchdown. What other TE does that? The ultimate swiss army knife, Hillís value has never been higher with the Saints not getting much return on investment from Jamaal Williams and Derek Carr getting clobbered each and every game behind a shaky offensive line. If Hill plays this week, heís a must start. And, you canít judge him by how the Panthers normally match up with tight ends as his game is so unique that thereís no stat that can be used to predict outcomes.

On the Fence: WR Chris Olave (illness)

Olave has been targeted 111 times now this season and has averaged 109 yards receiving during the past three weeks. The primary concern I have is that they wonít need much from him to control the game. If Jameis Winston ends up being the starter, I think it will be a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Hill (see above) on the ground with some safe throws underneath thrown in. Even if Carr is a go, the Saints will look to get the ball out of his hands quickly to protect him. Olaveís production of late is too hard to ignore, so heíll start for most teams. Iím just not sure heíll hit the target share and yardage managers are used to in recent weeks.

Fade: QBs Derek Carr, Jameis Winston

In the lackluster NFC South, the Saints are still very much alive for the division title and a playoff berth. As such, theyíll take few chances in this game as they know they can beat the Panthers easily by avoiding turnovers and playing solid defense. Not a recipe for an aerial assault and when you consider that Carolina is ranked 1st in fewest points surrendered to opposing QBs, you have further fade validation.

Prediction: Saints 24, Panthers 10 ^ Top

Rams @ Ravens - (Green)
Line: BAL -7.5
Total: 39.5

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: RB Kyren Williams, WR Puka Nacua

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Cooper Kupp

It feels wrong not to have Kupp as a no-brainer, but his recent production simply no longer warrants it. The former Offensive Player of the Year hasnít topped 50 yards in a game since Oct. 15 versus the Cardinals, and heís scored just once in his last six games. If you want to view things as glass half-full, Kupp continues to be involved, being targeted 38 times in that six-game stretch -- in fairness, the number is more accurate as 37 times in five games since he was injured on his lone reception against Seattle, which works out to 7.4 targets/game. If LA decides to lean on its most established weapon against a tough defense, Kupp could have a busy day.

Fade: QB Matthew Stafford

After tossing nine touchdown passes over his first nine games of 2023, Stafford has tossed seven TDs in his last two to help propel LA back into the playoff chase. Thatís the good news. The bad news is that the Ravens are arguably the toughest pass defense in the NFL. They rank second in yardage (171.7 yards/game), and first in TD passes allowed (10), and theyíre one of just two teams with more INTs (11) than TDs allowed. Itís going to be an uphill battle for Stafford to generate QB1 numbers. Bench him if you can.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson

Favorites: WR Zay Flowers

In their first game without go-to TE Mark Andrews (ankle), Flowers led the team with eight targets and scored both of their touchdowns -- one on a pass, and the other on a 37-yard run. With a week off to get healthy and make tweaks to the gameplan, look for the Ravens to cook up some new ways to get Flowers involved. Heís been the best wideout on the team for most of the season. Expect that to continue in Week 14 and plug him into your lineup as a WR2/WR3.

On the Fence: RBs Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell

When we last saw the Ravens, Mitchell was the teamís leading rusher with a team-high 64 yards on nine carries (that was second to Jackson) while Edwards carried the ball eight times for 26 yards against the Chargers. It was the continuation of a downturn in Edwardsí usage as he averaged a modest nine carries per game over his last four. The veteran has stayed playable due to his red-zone exploits with five TDs during that span, but the erosion of touches is still a concern. Mitchell, meanwhile, has become a bigger part of the offense since his 138-yard explosion versus Seattle back in Week 9. With the carry split a mystery, Mitchell and Edwards are both best viewed as flex candidates with decent upside.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Ravens 27, Rams 20 ^ Top

Colts @ Bengals - (Green)
Line: CIN -2.5
Total: 43.5

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: RB Zack Moss, WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Favorites: QB Gardner Minshew

Generally speaking, the more that the Colts have asked of Minshew, the worse it has gone. Call it the law of diminishing returns. That wasnít the case in Week 13, though, as Minshew passed for 312 yards and 2 TDs in an overtime win in Tennessee. Cincy offers an enticing matchup for him to build on. The Bengals rank 27th in pass defense (254.3 yards/game) and just played in overtime on Monday night. Thatís a quick turnaround, and it might help Minshew deliver QB1 numbers as Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is set to miss another game this Sunday.

On the Fence: WR Josh Downs

Downs looked to be ascending before suffering a knee injury on Nov. 5. In three games since then, heís managed a combined 10 catches for 97 yards. Further limiting his outlook among fantasy owners will doubtless be the 100-yard effort from Alec Pierce last Sunday while Downs posted a 3-14-0 line. The rookie has solid potential, though, and working behind Pierce could certainly be nothing more than an outlier. Facing that same shaky Bengals secondary, Downs could deliver from a flex slot.

Fade: N/A

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

No Brainers: RB Joe Mixon, WR JaíMarr Chase

Favorites: WR Tee Higgins

Back after missing three games with a hamstring injury, Higgins checked in with a modest line of three catches for 36 yards. Donít be dissuaded. It was his first game action with Jake Browning, and youíd think the Colts will focus a lot of attention on slowing down Chase after his 11-149-1 outburst in Jacksonville. Higgins is among the NFLís most talented No. 2 receivers, and with Browning looking more capable than most expected, the wideout could be worth a try as your WR3.

On the Fence: QB Jake Browning

Raise your hand if you thought Browning would throw for over 350 yards Monday night against one of the AFCís better clubs. Liars. The 27-year-old surprised everyone with his accuracy and poise in an upset win over Jacksonville, and it reinvigorated Cincinnatiís flagging playoff hopes. As tempting as it might be to advocate for Browning as a fringe QB1 type heading into Week 14, understand that thereís significant risk. The Bengals still very much had the element of surprise in what was Browningís second start, and as teams get more film, theyíll have a better idea of how to stop him.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Bengals 24, Colts 20 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Browns - (Green)
Line: CLE -2.5
Total: 34.5

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: RB Travis Etienne, TE Evan Engram

Favorites: N/A

Update: Trevor Lawrence is expected to play despite a high ankle sprain.

On the Fence: WRs Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones

It appears unlikely that Trevor Lawrence (ankle) will be physically able to make a start six days after sustaining a high ankle sprain on MNF. Christian Kirk (core) is also set to miss time with an injury. That slides C.J. Beathard into a starting role for the first time since late in the 2020 campaign with San Francisco. Heís made a dozen career starts, so he shouldnít be terrible, which is potentially good news for Ridley and Jones, who should fill the top two receiver roles ahead of Parker Washington. Ridley has been up and down in his first season back following a year-long suspension, while Jones has missed a good chuck of 2023 with a knee injury. Ridley could be used as a WR3 whereas Jones is more of a desperation flex play.

Fade: N/A

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: TE David Njoku

Favorites: RB Jerome Ford

Although he did catch a TD pass from Joe Flacco last weekend, Ford actually had three fewer carries than Kareem Hunt (groin) and was far less effective. The teamís decreased usage of Ford has made little sense -- he is averaging a solid 4.2 YPC on the season, in comparison to Huntís 3.3 -- but perhaps a groin injury to Hunt will result in an increased workload for the young back. Jacksonville has some pass rushers, most notably Josh Allen, that will want to get after the immobile Flacco. Look for Cleveland to try to use the ground game to slow them down. Ford is a worthwhile risk as an RB3.

On the Fence: WR Elijah Moore

With Amari Cooper (concussion) knocked from the game last Sunday, Moore was the primary receiver for Flacco. He was targeted 12 times, twice as many as anyone else, and finished with 83 yards on four receptions. If Cooper canít clear the league protocol, Moore could be thrust into that lead role once again. In that scenario, Moore can be used as a WR3. If Cooper is up, Moore falls back into flex territory.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Browns 20, Jaguars 12 ^ Top

Lions @ Bears - (Green)
Line: DET -3.5
Total: 43.5

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

No Brainers: RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: QB Jared Goff

Itís a bit of an odd time for Goff. In terms of yardage and touchdowns, the veteran has been solid over the last three games, throwing for 781 yards and 6 TDs. Youíd be hard pressed to say heís played well, however, turning the ball over six times in Weeks 11 and 12, which is perhaps why he threw a season-low 25 passes in Week 13. He faced the Bears during that stretch, finishing the day with 236 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs, and that was in the dome. On the road, in the elements, itís not hard to envision Goff doing a lot of turning around and handing the ball off. Heíd be a dicey pick as your QB1.

Fade: N/A

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: QB Justin Fields, WR D.J. Moore

Favorites: TE Cole Kmet

Although he caught just three passes for 20 yards when the Bears faced the Lions back in Week 11, the tight end has been targeted seven or more times four times in his last five games. That includes seven receptions for 43 yards versus Minnesota before the bye, which was second on the team in both categories. New Orleans found some success from the tight end position, including a touchdown from 57-year-old Jimmy Graham, so there are some encouraging signs for Kmetís prospects this week. You can pencil him in as a low-end TE1.

On the Fence: RBs Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert, DíOnta Foreman

What we know: the Bears like to run the ball. What we donít know: how the Bears will distribute the carries. In their previous meeting, Herbert (16-35-0) led the way, followed by Johnson (6-30-0), and Foreman (6-14-1), but that was the game Foreman injured his ankle, so itís unclear what the original plan was. Before the bye, it was Johnson (10-35-0) that led the way with Herbert (6-24-0) in the complementary role -- Foreman was inactive with the ankle injury. Now, coming out of the bye, and with all three healthy, itíll be interesting to see how Chicago mixes and matches. Playing any of the backs as more than a flex seems risky, though based on year-to-date performance the guess here is that Foreman sees the most opportunities.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 23 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Falcons - (Hollis)
Line: ATL -2.5
Total: 40.5

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: WR Mike Evans

Favorites: QB Baker Mayfield

The Falcons are difficult to run on (2nd in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs), which means the Buccaneers, who donít boast a good YPC anyway, will find themselves in plenty of second and long scenarios this Sunday. Falcons games are also low scoring, typically, but what Mayfield has established with Mike Evans at this point is truly special. Look for him to take several deep shots to Evans and hit on at least two of them. Does that make him a fantasy gold mine this week? No. Does it make him a borderline starter able to fill-in for your usual starter whoís injured? Yes. Yes, it does.

On the Fence: RB Rachaad White

Few players in fantasy football have been more reliable than White over the past seven weeks. Over that stretch, heís had 98 total yards or more in six of seven games and found the end zone five times. Heís also had 15 or more touches in all of those games with 20 or more in four of them. The concern for White this week is what was noted above with respect to Mayfield. Atlanta stops the run well and White is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry to begin with. Last time he faced the Falcons (Week 7), he did most of his damage as a receiver (6-65). Thatís where his hope lies this time around as well.

Fade: WR Chris Godwin, TE Cade Otton

If Chris Godwin hadnít rushed for a touchdown last weekend, it would have been a completely lost effort for him as he didnít catch a pass on only 3 targets. In the past five games, heís barely averaging 30 yards receiving over that span and that simply isnít good enough to warrant starting consideration, even as a flex option. As for Otton, he didnít even get a target last week. This offense is the White and Evans show and itís a formula that Mayfield and the Buccaneers seem content to hold to moving forward.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

No Brainers: RB Bijan Robinson

Favorites: WR Drake London

I know this selection is a little bit out of left field, but London is due for a solid performance after laying another egg last weekend (1 catch, 8 yards). Enter Tampa Bay who rank bottom five in terms of fantasy points surrendered to wide receivers. Conventional wisdom suggests this game will feature lots of rushing, but in actuality, both teams stop the rush really well. And, yes, I know who is throwing London the ball. Itís the same guy who was able to connect with him six times the last time these two teams played. If youíre looking for a WR1 or WR2, keep looking. But, if youíre looking for a flex play, London is worth a shot.

On the Fence: TE Kyle Pitts

The last time these two teams played, Pitts caught 3 balls for 47 yards. Isnít that his total every single week? I canít think of a single player over the past three seasons who teases us more with his potential and then is so pedestrian in game action. Pitts gets just enough looks (5.5 targets a game) to make him a borderline starter week in and week out and he also averages nearly 12 yards a reception when he does catch it. But, if ever there were a perpetual fence sitter week in and week out, Pitts would (sadly) be that guy.

Fade: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Tyler Allgeier

Maybe Trevor Lawrence is your usual starting quarterback. Maybe it was once Deshaun Watson or Joe Burrow. Or, maybe youíve been relying on Kyler Murray or Sam Howell in recent weeks. The latter two are on bye this week and the former trio are injured, of course, which is the only path towards even giving Ridder a second look. Avoid giving him a third look, though. His average of 169 passing yards per game puts him at the bottom of the barrel in that category. As for Allgeier, after a promising start to the season, heís been phased out thanks to Bijan Robinson. After all, 2/3 of his TDs on the season came in Week One vs. the Panthers.

Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Falcons 16 ^ Top

Texans @ Jets - (Caron)
Line: HOU -3.0
Total: 32.5

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Nico Collins

Tank Dellís injury is undoubtedly a big hit to the Texansí offense, but thereís also no denying that it significantly increases both the fantasy floor and ceiling for his teammate Nico Collins. Collins saw a season-high 44 percent target share and caught a season-high nine passes in Week 13, while delivering a monstrous 191-yard performance along with a touchdown. We know that the Jets secondary is one that we typically want to avoid as theyíre by far the stingiest group in the league when it comes to conceding points to wide receivers, but Collinsí target share is just too strong to look past right now. Collins is firmly in the high-end WR2 conversation, but may soon find himself as a weekly WR1 in better matchups if this type of usage continues.

On the Fence: QB C.J. Stroud

Likely rookie of the year C.J. Stroud has been a reliable fantasy QB1 most weeks this season, but this particular matchup against the Jets makes him a little more shaky than normal. The Jets have given up just three multi-passing-touchdown games to an opposing quarterback all season and two of those came against Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Stroud is providing enough of a floor to make him a low-end QB1 play even in difficult matchups like this, but his ceiling is much more limited in this game than it will be in others.

Fade: RB Devin Singletary, RB Dameon Pierce

While the Jets have been excellent against opposing passing games this season, theyíve been nearly equally as bad against opposing running games, having conceded the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position on the year. This would normally make the running back facing them an obvious fantasy starter and perhaps even an RB1, but the Houston backfield has just been too split to really have confidence in either player. Singletary had seen at least 50 percent of the teamís carries in every game since Week 9, but that fell off dramatically this past week when he surprisingly carried the ball on just 29 percent of the Texansí rushing plays. This marked the first time since Week 6 that Dameon Pierce has out-carried Singletary in a game. While Singletary remains by far the preferred passing-down back and thus the better fantasy play between the two, neither player is reliable enough right not to be trusted in the RB2 range. Sure, we may need to start them in the Flex in tough situations, but this is a much worse fantasy situation than it was even just a few weeks ago.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilsonís disappointing Week 13 game against the Falcons saw him catch just three of the seven targets that came his way for only 50 yards - his second sub-double-digit fantasy performance over the past three weeks. Normally this trend would mean that weíd be putting a player in the ďOn the FenceĒ category or perhaps even the ďFadeĒ category, but the reality is that the peripheral numbers remained strong for Wilson as he still managed a 24 percent target share in what just ended up being an extremely low-scoring game. This week, the Jets face a Texans team that has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard, which would presumably force the Jets to pass the ball much more than they did in Week 13. It might not be pretty, but Wilson should see enough usage to get back to being a WR2 this week.

On the Fence: RB Breece Hall

Itís hard to sugar-coat the way things have gone for Breece Hall as of late. Sure, heís managed to score double-digit fantasy points in eight straight games, but heís failed to reach even 12 PPR fantasy points in four of his past five games, including this past weekís game against the Falcons which saw him carry the ball 13 times for just 16 yards. Weíve always known that Hall is a big play specialist and a lack of big plays can sometimes lead to some ugly end-of-game numbers, but this is truly getting concerning as heís now finished with fewer than 40 rushing yards in eight of his 12 games this season. With just two rushing scores to his name, the only thing thatís helped Hall remain fantasy-relevant has been his passing game usage which has remained impressive despite the Jetsí terrible quarterback play. With the Texans being road favorites in this game, thereís a decent chance that the Jets could end up having to pass the ball quite a bit this week, which should lead to some easy dump-off receptions for Hall.

Fade: QB Zach Wilson

The Jets have announced that theyíre going back to quarterback Zach Wilson this week, which reportedly was met with apprehension from the former first-round draft pick who was frustrated with having been benched for Tim Boyle. This situation is extraordinarily toxic and itís very difficult to imagine that things are suddenly going to turn around. Wilson hasnít been a good fantasy QB this season and heís a must-avoid against the Texans.

Prediction: Texans 20, Jets 13 ^ Top

Seahawks @ 49ers - (Fessel)
Line: SF -13.5
Total: 46.5

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett

The 49ers have a stellar defense, but their corners are more solid than great and the fact that the Niners opponents are throwing from behind early and often means wideouts can rack up volume against them.

Metcalf and Lockett have uneven, and reasonably underwhelming seasons, so far (No.19 and No.38 in FPts/G, respectively). Metcalf wasnít performing as much more than a WR4 this year before blowing up last week for 134 yards and 3 touchdowns. That being said, the signs were there recently, as heís now had 94 or more receiving yards in three of the last four weeks. Lockett meanwhile, has had three different weeks with at least 18 points, but has otherwise generally been quiet.

Both receivers are high ceiling candidates against the 49ers this week, with Metcalf looking like his floor is starting to firm up. Metcalf looks like a solid WR2 and Lockett a WR3 versus the Niners.

On the Fence: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off what was easily his season high in targets (11). It was a solid day, but hardly a banner one (7-62-0), and the rookie wide receiver had just 3 targets the week before. Still, there are signs of life here, with all four of Smith-Njigbaís performances of 9 points or greater coming in the last seven games, and a negative game script coupled with possible absence of Seattleís top 2 running backs could lead to another high target total. Itís a risky play, but desperate owners can certainly see Smith-Njigba as more than the borderline WR5/6 heís been thus far.

Update: Geno Smith is a gametime decision.

Fade: QB Geno Smith (groin), RB Zach Charbonnet

Geno Smith had his best game of the year last week against a tough Dallas defense, which might cause owners to jump on board this week against the 49ers D. Especially with the quarterback position badly banged up by injuries, Geno does indeed deserve some thought.

Smith has had his two best performances of the season in the last month, but itís important to keep in mind that San Francisco has allowed just 12 passing touchdowns against 15 interceptions to opposing quarterbacks. Smith, himself, had just 9.3 points against this stud defense just two weeks ago. Overall, for the season, Smith is just 24th in points per game at quarterback and in a difficult match up, the floor is quite low and itís best to look another direction.

Meanwhile, running back Zach Charbonnet is dealing with an injury (knee) that is already leaving his status in doubt. Even if he plays, he may be at well less than a hundred percent, which might not just lead to a reduction in quality of performance, but also in a loss of touches to DeeJay Dallas. This assuming that Kenneth Walker (oblique) doesnít play this week, as well, but Walkerís return appears unlikely.

Making matters worse, the 49ers have allowed the 3rd fewest points to the running back position this year, and the Seahawks are going to be on the road for this contest. This is a situation that is best to avoid.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

No Brainers: TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey

Favorites: QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk

How much needs to be said here? When healthy, the 49ers have been absolutely rolling over opponents, and the passing game has been so efficient that every major player in the offense has an opportunity for a big day. Brock Purdy is 8th among QBs in points, and Seattle has given up the 12th most points to quarterbacks, making him an easy start at home.

Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk (14.0 FPts/G) and Deebo Samuel (13.6 FPts/G) are WR15 and WR16 in points per game. The Seahawk secondary has been better than earlier in the season, but still giving up the 8th most points to wideouts on the year. Aiyuk had 12 points in San Franciscoís previous match up with Seattle, and Samuel had 18.9. Expect more of the same this week.

On the Fence: N/A

Update: Elijah Mitchell is listed as Doubtful with a knee injury.

Fade: RB Elijah Mitchell

Even in a recent 31-13 victory over Seattle Ė who has given up the 5th most points per game to running backs Ė Mitchell only garnered 8 touches and 4.1 points. Heís yet to score or top 6 points in a game this season, making him an afterthought in what could be a flexible match up for many other second-string backs.

Prediction: 49ers 28, Seahawks 17 ^ Top

Vikings @ Raiders - (Fessel)
Line: MIN -3.0
Total: 40.5

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

No Brainers: WR Justin Jefferson, TE T.J. Hockenson

Favorites: RB Alexander Mattison

Mattisonís season has been a disappointment for many (No.39 in FPts/G), but heís still seeing enough volume (15 touches per game over the last five weeks) to have a productive fantasy day against a vulnerable defense. The Raiders are that vulnerable defense, certainly when it comes to dealing with opposing running backs (6th most points per game allowed to opposing RBs). That makes Mattison a solid RB2 this week.

On the Fence: QB Joshua Dobbs

As covered on FFToday earlier this week, Joshua Dobbs is getting another shot to start this week. Heíll have the skillset of Justin Jefferson available Ė presumably at 100% after he took special care in the healing process Ė in addition to emergent rookie Jordan Addison and stellar possession tight end T.J. Hockenson. Dobbs has produced QB1 efforts at times for both the Vikings and the Cardinals, and his mobility helps in those prospects. Having Jefferson on hand only increases the odds that Dobbs can come through against a middling Raiders defense. The risk, aside from the fact that Dobbs is a journeyman, is that the Vikings considered benching Dobbs earlier this week, meaning a slow start could get him benched and cost fantasy managers vying for a playoff spot.

Fade: WR Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison, meanwhile, has fallen off since the arrival of Dobbs, ranked just No.50 in points per game among wide receivers over the last five weeks. It had already been presumed that Jeffersonís return would bite into Addisonís value, so the prospects are not great for Addison going forward.

On the other hand, Addison might get more open with Jefferson back and drawing the toughest coverage, meaning the weak-armed Dobbs may actually connect more frequently with Addison going forward. In short, the situation with Addison is really up in the air. Donít give up on him, by any means, but heís worth sitting and watching for now.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: RB Josh Jacobs

Favorites: WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams is getting to WR1 / 2 status on volume as expected. Heís not going to be an elite option when hampered by the QB situation in Las Vegas, but 33 targets over the last three weeks still proves heís a must start.

On the Fence: WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Hunter Renfrow

The Vikings have given up the 12th most points to wide receivers, and most notably have surrendered the 4th most receptions. This is good news for possession receivers such as Jakobi Meyers.

Meyers sprung back to life in Week 12 going 6-79-1 (2 yards rushing). This was following a modest effort the week before 4-49-0. Aidan O'Connell may be getting more comfortable throwing to Meyers, and that gives him a decent shot at a solid week against the Vikings secondary.

Hunter Renfrow's continued re-emergence sans Josh McDaniels leaves the situation a bit cloudy. They may not be enough room for both Meyers and Renfrow to put up fantasy worthy numbers regularly, even with the Raiders likely being in the negative game script. Renfrow now has a perfect 9 receptions on 9 targets over his last two games, easily his best production of the season and his role could continue to grow. Notably, his snap involvement has started to increase (44 and 48 percent the last two weeks).

Meyers is more likely to see a meaningful bite of the apple right now, but Renfrow's involvement does put a crimp in Meyers upside, even against and Vikings defense that surrenders a lot of open looks in the short and intermediate field. Meyers is reasonably a WR3/4 this week, and Renfrow an option for deeper leagues.

Fade: QB Aidan OíConnell

Aidan O'Connell has yet to throw more than 1 touchdown in a game, despite having appeared in six games and attempted at least 25 passes in five of them. He also threw 3 picks two weeks ago versus Miami, and separately has had a three-fumble outing, as well. He has 6 picks and 4 fumbles thus far, and with just one 250+ yard passing performance, there isnít much room for error in his game.

While the Vikings have only been middling against opposing QBs, they also wonít help him much, and OíConnell seems to need a lot of help at this point. To make matters worse, the biggest vulnerability for the Vikes against quarterbacks has been stopping their legs (260 rushing yards allowed and 3 rushing TDs). OíConnell has just 9 rushing yards since taking over for the also immobile Jimmy Garoppolo. OíConnell is reasonably a QB3, so not a particularly solid option even for those in deeper leagues.

Prediction: Vikings 21 Raiders 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Chiefs - (Fessel)
Line: KC -1.0
Total: 48.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs

Favorites: WR Gabriel Davis

The Chiefs has been respectable against opposing wide receivers (18th most FPts/G allowed), but more often than not itís been an opponentís number 2 receiver that has hurt them more than opposing WR1ís. Some recent examples include Josh Palmer (15.6 pts, Wk 7), Jerry Jeudy (12.0 pts, Wk 8), DeVonta Smith (12.9 pts, Wk 11) and Jakobi Meyers (17.1 points, Wk 12). Gabe Davis is no DeVonta Smith, but itís far to argue that heís in the class of Palmer and Jeudy, and perhaps even Meyers. This is a good spot for Davis to be fired up as a flex.

On the Fence: RB James Cook, TE Dalton Kincaid

Cook has been a borderline RB2 this year (11.5 FPts/G). He is versatile, providing usage as both a runner and receiver, but he has just 3 touchdowns and with Allen (9 rushing TDs) and veteran grinder Latavius Murray (also 3 touchdowns) ripping chunks out of Cookís goal line opportunities, thatís not due for much improvement. Further inhibiting his ceiling will be a Chiefs defense that has given up just 5 touchdowns to running backs all year. Being on the road really cements Cooks as just a RB3 this week.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed just one tight end to reach double figures all season - Gerald Everett, Week 7. He barely got there (10.1 points), and no other tight end has reached the mark. If another tight end is going to put a mark on the Chiefs defense, Dalton Kincaid is among the few to do it. The rookie 1st rounder is has at least 5 receptions in each of the last six weeks, and has entered the top 12 in points per game at the position. Itís a difficult match up that looks to have a low ceiling, so itís wise to consider whether you need more of a ceiling or a floor from your tight end this week before rolling with Kincaid.

Fade: N/A

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce

Update: Isiah Pacheco has been ruled Out with a shoulder injury.

Favorites: WR Rashee Rice, RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder)

Itís not quite official, but Rashee Rice may have locked in his role as Mahomesí go-to wide receiver. Heís been solid, especially in the red zone, since the start of the year and as a result has seen his snap rate reach new highs (69% last week). The targets and yardage have both exploded in the last two weeks (19 targets, 171 yards) another indication that his route tree is growing and that both Andy Reid and Mahomes are recognizing Rice as a vital part of the offense.

The Bills havenít had a ton of answers for opposing receivers since losing TreíDavious White, and for the year have given up the 11th most points to the position. This is a good matchup for a player that is quickly moving towards WR2 territory.

Pacheco has been a mid-to-high end RB2 this season, and heíll draw a Bills defense that is okay but hardly exceptional against the run (13th most points allowed to opposing backs). Home field, a surprisingly neutered Bills team, and December weather all bode well for Pacheco reaching the thick side of the 13.1 points per game heís averaged this season.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: Other Chiefs wide receivers

On the target tree for Kansas City, itís Kelce-Rice-Pacheco, and anyone else is a distance 4th, 5th and so on. Three weeks ago, Justin Watson had 11 targets (he only turned out 53 yards). Since then, heís essentially disappeared. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only Chiefs receiver besides Rice to see more than 3 targets in the last two weeks. He saw 5 and produced 25 yards. Itís possible that someone has a good day among this ďrest ofĒ group if a shootout develops, but itís not just unlikely but impossible to say who.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 21 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chargers - (Fessel)
Line: LAC -2.5
Total: 43.5

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton has been the brightest spot in the Broncos offense this season, and even in an inefficient performance last week, he reeled in a long touchdown Ė his 9th. Against a Chargers secondary that has been torched by opposing wide receivers (3rd most points allowed, Sutton is easily a high end WR2 this week.

On the Fence: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, RB Javonte Williams

Since getting mauled by opposing quarterbacks through the seasonís first month and a half Ė having given up at least 25 points to QBís in five of six games Ė the Chargers woes versus the position have calmed a bit. No quarterback has surpassed the 25-point mark against them since, and only Jordan Love and Jared Goff have broken the 20-point mark. Of course, the Chargers have faced the likes of Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson and Bailey Zappe during this time but that didnít stop them from being a wet paper bag earlier in the year (21 points for Ryan Tannehill during Week 2 and a season high 15.8 for Aidan OíConnell during Week 4). Itís also notable that the Chargers recently held Lamar Jackson to 15 points. In short, itís not impossible to imagine Russell Wilson having a QB1 performance against the Chargers, but the leagueís No.18 QB could also easily have his typical QB2 day.

The Chargers defense against wide receivers this year (or lack there-of) may be enough to consider starting Jeudy. Most recently, Zay Flowers had a season high performance and Ė although far more modestly Ė DeVante Parker came close. In Week 11, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks all had double-digit point performances and Christian Watson just missed out (9.2 points). Jeudy has at least 50 yards receiving in seven outings this year, but his season high of 81 came all the way back on September 24th. Heís also failed to reach 20 yards receiving twice this year. The lack of ceiling and Jeudyís occasional disappearing act this year make this match up far less exciting than it could be, but if youíre in a pinch you could do worse than Jeudy against the Chargers.

The Chargers defense has been more respectable against running backs than receivers, and honestly, outside of a game against Detroit where their front seven had no shot against the Lions, theyíve been pretty good. Montgomery and Gibbs are the only backs to get more than 11.5 points against the Chargers over the last six weeks.

Denver, like most teams, canít quite bring the physicality that the Lions can. Javonte Williams still doesnít have a rushing touchdown, which can only further emphasize this point. At 9.1 points per game for the season, just 38th among running backs, itís not a great spot for Javonte. Still, with at least twenty touches in three of his last five starts, heís worth flex consideration, no matter how unexciting he may be right now.

Fade: N/A

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen

Favorites: RB Austin Ekeler

At 12.6 points per game, Ekeler has played the part of a mid-level RB2 this season. Itís not even close to what those who drafted him in the early 1st round expected, and one thing that is hitting real hard this season is touchdown regression (just 5 this season). Enter the Broncos. Theyíve given up the 4th most touchdowns to opposing running backs (10 on the ground and 4 through the air), have given up the 2nd most rushing yards to backs and the 8th most receiving yards to the position. The are a weekly dream matchup, and Ekeler should at least feel like the player he was expected to be for this match up.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: WR Quentin Johnston

Nico Collins outburst against the Broncos secondary last week (9-191-1) was the first time any wide receiver put up more than 10 points against them since week 4 (D.J. Moore). Keenan Allen is certainly capable of producing in the realm of Collins or Moore, but Quentin Johnston hasnít reached that place just yet. It was encouraging to see him reel in 5 catches for 52 yards on 7 targets last week, but those 52 yards represent a modest season high and heís scored just 1 touchdown despite his size (6í4). It still doesnít appear to be time for Johnston, especially not against the Broncos.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Broncos 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Cowboys - (Caron)
Line: DAL -3.5
Total: 51.5

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: WR A.J. Brown

Favorites: QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts was pulled during Philadelphiaís blowout loss to San Francisco this past week and that has some fantasy managers concerned about the situation going forward. Fear not, though - this should be a nice bounce-back week for Hurts and the entire Eagles offense as they face a Cowboys defense that just got lit up by Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Hurts himself has now rushed for an absurd 12 touchdowns this season while adding 19 through the air, and heís already had a nice performance against the Cowboys when these teams played back in Week 9.

On the Fence: WR DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith has been red hot as of late and there are plenty of reasons to get him back in your lineup as the Eagles face the Cowboys this week. Smith has scored a touchdown in four of his past five games, including his Week 9 game against the Cowboys, but itís worth noting that he has seen a significant usage increase with tight end Dallas Goedert sidelined. Goedert is expected back this week and that will very likely limit Smithís upside. In fact, despite scoring the touchdown against Dallas, Smith saw just three total targets in the game which also happened to be the most recent game that Goedert played.

Smith could still very well turn in a nice fantasy performance but understand that weíve seen his production spike in the past when Goedert has been sidelined, so donít be surprised if he does disappoint a bit here in Week 14.

Fade: RB DíAndre Swift

Eagles running back DíAndre Swift saw a season-low six carries during his teamís Week 14 loss to the 49ers, marking the first time that he had not carried the ball at least 10 times in a game since Week 1. Swift did carry the ball 18 times when he faced the Cowboys back in Week 9, but it resulted in just a 2.4 yards per carry average and he was held to fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points in that contest. With the Eagles being as successful near the goal line with the ďtush pushĒ as they have been, Swiftís touchdown upside is seriously capped and he hasnít caught more than three passes in a game since all the way back in Week 6. Heís not a must-bench given that we should expect him to see at least 12 touches in this game, but he could be in for another low-ceiling output.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb

Favorites: TE Jake Ferguson

The Cowboysí passing game is absolutely humming as of late and one of the players whoís been a big beneficiary of that has been tight end Jake Ferguson. Ferguson caught six passes for 77 yards and a touchdown this past week against the Seahawks, but perhaps more importantly he had his best fantasy game of the season thus far when he faced this very same Eagles defense back in Week 9. Ferguson was targeted a season-high 10 times in that game, catching seven of them for 91 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have given up at least four receptions to an opposing tight end in five straight games and Ferguson should be a good bet to extend that streak.

On the Fence: WR Brandin Cooks

With only two games of more than five targets this season, itís tough to strongly recommend Brandin Cooks as a fantasy option, but itís also difficult to deny that Dak Prescottís recent hot streak has strongly correlated with Cooks getting into the end zone. Cooks has scored a touchdown in five of his past seven games, including each of his past two, and heís consistently running routes on over 80 percent of the Cowboysí passing plays.

The Eagles are by far the worst defense in the NFL at defending opposing wide receivers this season, so Cooks has to be in the conversation for a Flex play this week. He might even be a ďfavoriteĒ if he hadnít been held to one reception for seven yards when these teams played back in Week 9.

Fade: RB Tony Pollard

Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has now scored a touchdown in three straight games and heís finally delivering on the pre-season hype that the fantasy football community had given him. However, his matchup against the Eagles this week is not one that fantasy managers should be getting too hyped up about, as Philadelphia is the second-stingiest defense in the league when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing running backs. Pollard himself was held to 12 carries for 53 yards and added just one catch when these teams played back in Week 9.

His recent hot streak and goal-line usage in a high-powered offense means that heís not likely to be benched by many fantasy managers, but heís much closer to a Flex play this week than he is a high-end RB1.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Eagles 27 ^ Top

Packers @ Giants - (Caron)
Line: GB -6.5
Total: 36.5

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Romeo Doubs

With Christian Watson looking unlikely to suit up on Monday night, the Packers are back in the situation they were in earlier this season when Romeo Doubs was producing like a borderline stud fantasy WR. Weíve seen other players in the Green Bay offense step into more prominent roles as the season has gone on, but Doubs appeared to be back in his role as the Packersí WR1 when Watson went down in Week 13. This is significant because the Packersí wide receivers have an excellent matchup against the Giantsí secondary that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers so far this season. If Doubs can push for double-digit targets, he is very likely to deliver some usable fantasy numbers here in Week 14.

On the Fence: QB Jordan Love, WR Jayden Reed

It hasnít always been pretty, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love has really stepped up over the past few weeks and heís now thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight contests. Coming off of surprising wins over both the Lions and Chiefs, Love and the Packers now face a Giantsí team that has all but given up on the season and can definitely be exploited for fantasy points. Love will likely be without his top weapon, Christian Watson, but the Packers have a number of young pass catchers whoíve shown the ability to make plays this season, so donít downgrade him too much just because of Watsonís absence.

One of the young players whoís really stepped up in the Green Bay offense has been rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed. Reed may not have the high target share to make him an elite fantasy weapon, but heís been very efficient with the touches heís been seeing, including on the ground where heís broken off a number of long runs in recent weeks. Reed has quietly produced seven double-digit PPR fantasy games this season and he could end up seeing a noticeable uptick in targets assuming that Watson is sidelined.

Fade: RB Aaron Jones, RB AJ Dillon

While the Packersí passing game has been heating up as of late, the same unfortunately cannot be said about their running game. Whether itís been Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon, the fantasy numbers just havenít been there to justify putting either player into lineups in anything other than very desperate situations. To make matters worse, both players have an injury designation at the moment and are questionable to play, even with Jones finally logging a limited practice on Thursday. If both players are active, though, expect this to be a committee - and not a good one.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Saquon Barkley

Itís hard not to feel bad for Saquon Barkley as the running back has dealt with several injuries and has been stuck with one of the worst casts of surrounding talent in the league. Still, heís managed to produce 13 or more PPR fantasy points in six of his nine games, including a few week-winning performances mixed in there, in large part due to his continued production in the passing game.

Barkley now faces a Green Bay defense that has been a plus matchup for opposing running backs this season, including having given up a 110-yard day on the ground to the Chiefsí Isiah Pacheco in what ended up being a losing effort. In fact, over their past four games, opposing teamsí running backs have averaged over 125 rushing yards against the Packersí defense. Barkley is still seeing over 70 percent of his teamís running back rush attempts per week, so thereís no reason to think that he wonít provide a safe floor this week along with a nice ceiling.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: WR Jalin Hyatt

Rookie wide receiver Jaylin Hyatt finally flashed the big play ability that made him a highly-regarded prospect on many big boards this past draft season, as he caught five passes for 109 yards and a touchdown the last time we saw him. Hyatt still hasnít managed to get into the end zone, though, and the unfortunate reality is that with Tommy DeVito behind center, there just isnít a lot of high-end potential to go around. Even in games where the Giants were completely blown out on the scoreboard, DeVito still has not even attempted 30 passes in a single contest. Hyatt saw a season-high 26 percent target share in his last game, but he had been held under a double-digit target share in three of his previous four contests. Itís certainly possible that the Giantsí bye week allowed them to take a closer look at Hyatt and find ways to incorporate him more into the offense, but fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach with this situation here in Week 14.

Prediction: Packers 20, Giants 16 ^ Top

Titans @ Dolphins - (Caron)
Line: MIA -13.0
Total: 46.5

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB Derrick Henry

Thereís not much to love about this Tennessee offense, but the recent usage and production from Derrick Henry has reminded us of the glory days of this former 2,000-yard back. Henry has carried the ball 39 times for 178 yards and four touchdowns over his past two games, and itís getting to the time of the year when the Titans love to feed him with carries. Weíd prefer if this matchup was in Tennessee as opposed to Miami, but the Titans will almost certainly give him as many carries as they can, in hopes of limiting the number of Miami offensive snaps. They definitely do not want to get into a shootout with this team. Henryís an RB1 despite a difficult matchup.

On the Fence: WR DeAndre Hopkins

While the Titans have made it clear that they would prefer to give the ball to Henry 30 times per game if they could, we also have to be reasonable and understand that thereís a solid chance that this game gets out of hand on the scoreboard and that the Titans are forced to throw the ball. If that happens, the player who benefits the most is certainly wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who saw 12 targets this past week - his most since Week 1. Hopkins converted on five of those passes for 75 yards and a touchdown. While heís not a fantasy WR1 anymore, Hopkins is a solid play against a Miami defense that has given up some big games to top pass-catchers in opposing offenses this season.

Fade: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo

Tennessee tight end Chig Okonkwo has been a huge disappointment this season, but he is coming off his best fantasy game of the season which saw him targeted six times, converting three receptions for 62 yards. The Dolphins were giving up fantasy points to tight ends at a high rate earlier this season, but thatís cooled off significantly in recent weeks, as they even held Travis Kelce to three receptions for 14 yards when they faced the Chiefs in Week 9. Those searching for tight end streaming options might be interested that Okonkwo seemed to finally get involved in the Titansí passing game this past week but this is a situation to avoid until we see him doing it on a much more consistent basis.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: WR Tyreek Hill

Favorites: RB Devon Achane

Achane made his return to the lineup this past week, contributing 103 total yards and two touchdowns in Miamiís dominant victory over the Commanders. Achane played on 59 percent of the Dolphinsí offensive snaps, compared to teammate Raheem Mostertís 39 percent, marking the first time that the rookie had led his team in backfield snaps since Week 4. We have to assume that Mostert and perhaps even Jeff Wilson will remain involved, but Achane may be taking over this backfield yet again and weíve seen some truly explosive fantasy performances out of him when heís been given opportunities. The Titans are always solid against running backs so this isnít a smash matchup or anything, but Achane can turn bad matchups into good ones with one breakaway run.

On the Fence: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle

Tua Tagovailoa continues to hold onto his QB1 status by a string, as he turned in a respectable 280-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Commanders this past week. Of course, his numbers were a bit subdued given that the Dolphins got ahead on the scoreboard by such a big margin and thus didnít need to pass the ball, but thereís a decent chance that happens again this week against a bad Titans team. Tua is a solid low-end QB1 or a great QB2, but donít expect a huge game from him in this one.

With Tyreek pacing to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history, it makes sense that other pass catchers in this Miami offense have been left in the dust at times. Jaylen Waddle has been decent enough most weeks, but he has scored just three touchdowns on the year and heís only reached 100 yards twice. Still, his usage remains interesting as heís been targeted an average of over eight times per game over his past eight contests. Itís tough to find that kind of usage in such a high-powered offense, so Waddle is still probably a mid-level WR2 this week.

Fade: RB Raheem Mostert

Mostert is back on the injury report as he has been nearly every week this season, but on the bright side, he’s yet to miss a game. He’s also remained highly productive in what has been one of the NFL’s best offenses, as he’s now contributed 16 touchdowns on the year. It certainly makes sense to continue to put him in fantasy lineups given that he’s continued to produce even in this crowded backfield, but it’s worth noting that the usage numbers this past week were a bit concerning as Mostert was on the field for just 39 percent of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps - his lowest number of the year - which coincided with Achane’s return to the lineup. This could have been, at least partially, due to the game script which saw the Dolphins run away from the Commanders on the scoreboard, but that’s still concerning because fantasy managers are banking on their running backs producing in those types of game environments. Mostert is still probably a must-start for most teams given the running back situation throughout the league, but we could be seeing a change in the Miami backfield so don’t be too shocked if he sees significantly fewer snaps than Achane.

Prediction: Dolphins 28, Titans 17 ^ Top