We’re only two weeks into the season, but Patriots running
back Rhamondre Stevenson has to be on the short-list for fantasy
football’s comeback player of the year. Stevenson struggled
through injuries in 2023 but has bounced back in a big way thus
far in 2024, having already rushed for over 200 yards along with
a touchdown in each contest. Stevenson has been on the field for
over 75 percent of New England’s offensive snaps and has
reestablished himself as the clear workhorse back on the roster.
The Jets have already conceded 229 rushing yards to opposing
running backs through two games, including a monster 147-yard
performance to the 49ers’ Jordan Mason back in Week 1. They’ve
also given up a 40-yard receiving day to a member of the opposing
backfield in each contest, with Kyle Juszczyk and Tony Pollard
both reaching that number.
Stevenson isn’t quite a top-tier fantasy back just given
the offense he’s in, but he’s been elite from a usage
standpoint and should continue to be relatively game-script independent,
making him a strong play in almost any matchup.
Despite a relatively low number of injuries to the position thus
far, the tight end position has been a complete wasteland from
a fantasy production standpoint. This has left fantasy managers
scrambling to find any semblance of production - or even hope
for production - from the weakest position in fantasy football.
Enter the veteran, Hunter Henry, who has now established himself
as the top pass-catching weapon in the New England offense. Through
two weeks, Henry is the only player on the roster who’s
reached double-digit targets, checking in at 15 for a near 30
percent share of the team’s total targets thus far. In fact,
Henry currently leads all NFL tight ends in percentage of his
team’s targets that have come his way. The majority of those
targets came this past week as Henry saw 12, catching eight of
them for 109 yards. With the Patriots’ wide receiver group
being inexperienced and unproductive thus far, there’s plenty
of reason to believe that Henry will continue to lead the team
in pass catching for the foreseeable future, making him a decent
fallback option for those looking for a few points out of the
position.
While Stevenson is the clear-cut RB1 in New England, the backup
role has also become very clear, with Antonio Gibson having now
carried the ball 18 times through two weeks, including 11 attempts
for 96 yards in the Patriots’ Week 2 loss to the Seahawks.
It’s been a small sample size, but one thing that’s
been lacking from Gibson so far this season is his passing game
usage. He’s seen just one target, despite having a history
as a wide receiver at the collegiate level and a relatively impressive
receiving profile in the NFL.
We shouldn’t expect a significant shift in usage from the
Patriots’ backfield, at least as long as they’re relatively
competitive in games, and it seems fairly likely that they’ll
be in this one which is expected to be a low-scoring contest against
a good Jets defense. Gibson should see between seven to 12 touches,
but unless those touches are coming primarily in the passing game
then he’s probably not useful for fantasy purposes right
now.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
The shift to Aaron Rodgers was supposed to ignite the career
of Garrett Wilson, but thus far in 2024 we haven’t seen much of
that. Sure, Wilson’s been fine, having caught 10 total passes
for 117 yards, including double-digit PPR points in each contest,
but he hasn’t scored a touchdown and he ranks well outside even
WR2 range at the moment.
A looming matchup against cornerback Christian Gonzalez - a player
whom Aaron Rodgers himself called “elite” this week - doesn’t
bode well for a breakout fantasy performance in Week 3, but the
fact that Wilson is seeing such a heavy dose of targets means
that he almost certainly still needs to be in fantasy lineups.
While the Jets have thrown just 59 passes in two games, 17 of
those have gone Wilson’s way, giving him the sixth-highest share
of his team’s targets in the league this season.
Don’t expect a huge breakout game for Wilson in this one
given the low implied score total and the difficult matchup, but
it’s hard to go away from a target share this strong, even
in a mediocre offense.
Breece Hall has been a monster producer through two games, but
things could have been even better for him if it wasn’t
for rookie backfield-mate Braelon Allen. Allen touched the ball
just twice in Week 1, but saw his usage jump in Week 2 as he carried
the ball seven times while also catching two passes, and he scored
a touchdown against the Titans both as a rusher and a receiver.
This type of low-sample-size usage, especially given where the
touches occurred, isn’t enough for us to start trusting
Allen in most leagues at the moment, but it’s enough to
show us that he needs to be rostered in practically all formats,
even if it’s just as one of the league’s top handcuff
options.
A potential low-scoring matchup with the Patriots isn’t
something that we should be too excited about, so don’t
jump to put him in your lineup over more proven options, but if
you’re scrambling to find a warm body at running back this
week then Allen could be a decent option. He’s a talented
player who’s shown that he can turn even a few carries into
some impressive numbers.
We were a bit concerned about New York’s offensive situation
heading into the 2024 season and so far, it’s come to fruition.
While the running backs have been productive and Garrett Wilson
is seeing a very healthy share of targets, the Jets have only
59 pass attempts in two weeks, 51 of which have been thrown by
Aaron Rodgers. With Wilson having seen 17 targets and Hall seeing
another 14, that’s left the other players in this offense
scrounging for scraps.
Lazard has been the best option of the group thus far, with him
seeing nine targets (two of which he converted for touchdowns)
in Week 1, but his usage dropped significantly in Week 2 as he
saw just four passes come his way. Some of that is just general
variance from a not-so-talented player, but with Mike Williams
seeing significantly more playing time in that game, it also could
be that the offense is just becoming less predictable aside from
the aforementioned Wilson and Hall.
Some fantasy analysts have been pointing to potential for spike
weeks from tight end Tyler Conklin given Rodgers’ history
of turning mediocre tight ends into fantasy starters primarily
via touchdown efficiency, but we certainly have not seen that
thus far from Conklin. He’s seen just four targets in two
games and he’s never scored more than three touchdowns in
an entire season, let alone multiple in a single game, so he can
be safely dropped in most formats.
The Jets have run the fifth-fewest plays through two weeks and
there’s no real reason to believe that they’re going
to make a dramatic shift in that strategy, especially in matchups
against bad offenses like the Patriots’. This means that
their ancillary fantasy options are unlikely to make much of a
fantasy impact most weeks and Rodgers himself is capped as a low-end
QB2 unless touchdown variance happens to fall in his favor.
It’s only Week 3 and we’re already at the point where
you could realistically avoid everyone in the Broncos’ offense,
including their WR1 Courtland Sutton and RB1 Javonte Williams.
Sutton is the primary target on the team, leading all Broncos
pass catchers in route participation, target share, and air yards
share. But the question becomes, how much is a Bo Nix target worth?
Sutton has an abysmal 31-percent catch rate, converting 16 targets
into 5 receptions for 64 yards. Unless you’re playing in a league
that gives points for unrealized air yards, it’s hard to get Sutton
into the lineup unless absolutely necessary.
Javonte Williams is in a very similar situation; he’s the
leader of his positional group, but that role doesn’t mean
much. He has handled 43 percent of the team’s carries and
earned a nine-percent target share, yet he averages just 7.4 PPR
points per game. Is Javonte still a shell of his pre-ACL tear
self or is this offense simply just too helpless to sustain backfield
production? It would require a rather dire situation at running
back to give Williams the nod this week.
Fade: N/A
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Along with Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield has taken fantasy football
by storm to open the 2024 season. He’s been a top-5 QB both weeks
to start the year and has done it in a variety of ways. In Week
1, he torched the Commanders for four touchdowns, scoring 29.7
points in the process. Mayfield got it done with his legs in Week
2, bolstering his fantasy production with a score on the ground.
He has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt along the way and somehow
looks even better than he did last year under Dave Canales.
White was arguably the most inefficient rusher in the NFL last
season and it’s been more of the same this year. He currently
leads the Buccaneers in carries but is third on the team in rushing
yards. Yes, Baker Mayfield currently has more rushing yards than
White. The only solace for White owners is that he maintains a
strong role as a receiver with a 14-percent target share.
White’s issues on the ground are enough to make any fantasy
manager queasy. But he is now also dealing with a groin injury
that has limited him in practice this week. This could be enough
to push him over the edge and send him to the bench of fantasy
teams with strong RB depth.
Here’s what we know. Pierce was inactive in Week 2 due to a hamstring
injury and has yet to return to practice. Mixon, meanwhile, suffered
a knee injury courtesy of a hip-drop tackle during the game. He
came back briefly but sat the rest of the night and has not practiced.
Looking ahead to Sunday, all we can do is speculate. The team
remains hopeful that Mixon could play, though given their aspirations
and Mixon’s importance to that goal, it seems shortsighted to
rush him back. That could open the door for Pierce, who theoretically
has a fairly mild hamstring sprain. Again, though, his status
for Week 3 is up in the air. If Mixon sits and Pierce returns,
the latter could offer some nice upside after fellow backup Jordan
Mason ran for 100 yards and a TD in Week 2. If both are out, Cam
Akers would become a short-term option.
It always made sense that there’d be some growing pains
in the passing game after the Texans acquired Stefon Diggs to
go with Dell and Nico Collins. The optimistic view from fantasy
owners was that Stroud would spread the ball around, and that
the offense was prolific enough to give all three solid value.
Thus far, Collins has been the clear go-to guy while Diggs and
Dell fill secondary roles. Thanks to his two TDs, Diggs has fared
better in that regard. As for Dell, he’s turned 11 targets
into just four catches and 37 yards. He’s added 35 yards
on the ground as well. That’s 36 yards per game, which is
a far cry from his rookie year when he averaged 76 yards per outing.
There’s plenty of time for Dell to round into form as the
offense develops. If you have decent alternatives, however, you
might want to wait for things to stabilize before you rely on
Dell.
Fade: N/A
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Coming off a strong debut for the Vikings (109 yards, 1 TD),
Jones didn’t get much going against the 49ers, turning 14 combined
touches into 68 yards and losing a fumble. He also picked up a
hip injury that led to him being limited in practice early this
week. Durability was an issue with Jones for much of his career,
and it’s a big reason the Packers were willing to move on from
the soon-to-be 30-year-old back. With that in mind, you may want
to strike while the iron is hot and get Jones in your lineup when
he’s available. It also makes sense that the Vikings will want
to do whatever they can to, a) take pressure off Sam Darnold,
and b) keep the ball away from Houston’s offense.
Addison was inactive in Week 2 due to an ankle injury suffered
during the opener. It wasn’t believed to be all that serious,
so he has a chance to be back in uniform this Sunday, though the
likelihood decreases each day he doesn’t practice. With
Addison out, Nailor stepped in and caught three passes for 54
yards and a touchdown -- he had just one catch in the opener,
but it went for a TD. With Jefferson also banged up, this is a
fluid situation, particularly for Nailor, who could be anywhere
from WR1 to WR3 for Darnold. The Texans are a tough defense, having
allowed just 32 completions this season (third-fewest in the NFL).
Health will dictate value here, but know that anyone other Jefferson
carries some risk.
Injuries ruined Dobbins’ planned ascension back in 2021,
costing him the entire season. It was a similar story in two subsequent
campaigns as the Ohio State product was limited to just nine games
in 2022-23 combined due to injury. He signed with LA during the
offseason, and through two games he has looked every bit like
the player he was as a rookie in 2020. Twenty-seven carries, 266
yards, and 2 TDs -- that works out to a cool 9.9 yards per carry.
Clearly, durability concerns still hang over Dobbins like a proverbial
sword of Damocles, but he’s healthy now, making this the
fantasy equivalent of “smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.”
Play Dobbins, even in a tough matchup against a Steelers-D that
ranks fifth in rush defense at 76.5 yards allowed per game.
Johnston did little as a rookie and was stuck with the second
unit during training camp, but an injury to D.J. Chark (hip) opened
the door. Thus far, the second-year wideout has answered the bell.
Johnston followed up a 3-38-0 effort in Week 1 with 51 yards and
a pair of touchdowns on five receptions last Sunday. For now,
he should be considered the best of a shaky group, and one that
doesn’t figure to see a lot of opportunities in a game between
two defense-first clubs that have leaned on the running game.
As a flex play, Johnston offers some upside.
In 34 games from 2021-22, Herbert averaged 40.3 passing attempts
per contest. Over his first two games of this season, he’s
totaled 46. The Steelers have held opposing QBs to an NFL-low
56.8 QBR, which includes 4 INTs to just 1 TD allowed. Making matters
worse for Herbert, he picked up an ankle injury against Carolina
and won’t be at 100 percent this weekend. Herbert doesn’t
belong in your lineup here.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
There isn’t much talent on the outside for the Steelers beyond
Pickens, which makes Freiermuth the true No. 2 target in Pittsburgh’s
passing attack. He has caught four passes in each of the first
two games, including posting a team-high 39 yards against the
Broncos last week. While opponents haven’t had a lot of success
in general versus LA this season, Brock Bowers’ six catches led
all players in Week 1, and Tommy Tremble was Carolina’s leader
in receiving yardage. Both are tight ends. Again, neither player
put up huge numbers, but that relative level of success and Freiermuth’s
importance could lead to playable production.
With Russell Wilson (calf) still nursing a calf injury, Fields
is in line to make his third consecutive start. While he hasn’t
made the same kind of mistakes he made during his time in Chicago,
the explosiveness has been dialed way back as well with Fields
posting 273 yards passing and 84 yards rushing combined in two
games. Again, these two teams are essentially mirror images of
each other, and you can bet Mike Tomlin will want Fields to continue
playing very conservatively to not put the defense in bad spots.
While there’s always some level of upside with Fields due to his
running ability, that’d be a risky choice given the opponent and
anticipated style of play.
When it comes to fringe starters, Dallas Goedert is about as
fringe as it gets. He is consistently teetering on the edge of
TE1 production, even with A.J. Brown sidelined. Goedert scored
6.8 PPR points on four targets last week, good enough for him
to come in as the TE16. The disappointing part is that he played
a full complement of snaps (97 percent) and ran a route on 84
percent of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks. Goedert provides a non-zero
floor, but his ability to realize his ceiling is driven by touchdown
production. He can be started on rosters dealing with TE injuries
and that’s about it.
Some people may be intrigued to start Dotson if they are desperate
because he is the de facto WR2 in Philly. This is a fundamentally
flawed way of thinking. Targets aren’t handed out like candy,
they are earned. Dotson is not a target earner; he went out in
Week 2 and earned a target on just three percent of his routes.
He doesn’t deserve to even be rostered despite Brown’s
injury.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Shaheed is finally playing a full-time role in the Saints’
offense and is thriving as a result. He has run a route on 74
percent of Derek Carr’s dropbacks which has translated to
a 23-percent target share.
The beauty of Shaheed’s role is that it features a good
number of intermediate targets and manufactured touches that provide
a steady floor. He also reprised his role as New Orleans’
deep threat which allows him to have explosive fantasy performances.
Shaheed has connected with Carr for multiple touchdowns of 50-plus
yards in length. The Eagles’ defense is particularly susceptible
to big plays; they have allowed 150 yards on deep targets this
year, the fifth-most of any team. Don’t be shocked if Shaheed
blows by the defense on a house call once again this week.
The Saints have scored 91 points in their first two games, the
second-highest total of any team through Week 2 since 2000. As
you may guess, the quarterback for this team is performing quite
well. Carr currently leads all quarterbacks in EPA (expected points
added) per play, fantasy points per dropback, and completion percentage
over expectation. He should keep the good times rolling against
a Philadelphia defense that’s allowed the 6th most passing
yards to quarterbacks. If Carr continues to keep this up, he will
likely move into the No Brainer category.
The Fades list could have realistically just said “All Packers
Pass Catchers.” With Malik Willis under center, it’s irresponsible
to consider starting a single Green Bay pass catcher. We all knew
that Matt LaFleur would lean on Josh Jacobs in Jordan Love’s absence,
but wow, 32 carries for Jacobs wasn’t on anyone’s Week 2 bingo
card. Willis only had 17 dropbacks, 14 of which resulted in pass
attempts. This isn’t the sort of offensive environment that can
sustain a receiver in fantasy, regardless of talent.
There are some reports circling around that Love (knee) may suit
up this week. If that’s the case, Jayden Reed certainly
enters Flex territory. However, it still seems like the most likely
route is a Week 4 return. Green Bay has a winnable matchup against
the Titans and it’s not like they are staring at an 0-3
start. The coaching staff will likely exercise caution with their
franchise QB and ensure he is fully healthy as opposed to rushing
him back.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
With DeAndre Hopkins not exactly looking like himself following
a knee injury, the passing attack has almost exclusively flowed
through Ridley. He has accounted for a respectable 22 percent
of the targets but a ridiculous 60 percent of the air yards. Ridley
has six deep targets (20-plus yards downfield) which leads the
league.
With a quarterback like Levis, the issue is whether or not these
targets will be on target. So far this season, just 61 percent
of Ridley’s targets have been deemed catchable. Ridley’s
situation creates an incredibly volatile outlook. He’ll
score 20-plus points one week (Week 2) and be kept in the single
digits (Week 1) in others. He is a boom-bust WR3 or Flex whose
upside is difficult to pass up.
We were told that Tennessee’s backfield would be a 50/50 split
with both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears getting reps. Thus far,
it hasn’t even looked like a 1A/1B situation; this has been Pollard’s
backfield. Pollard has played 65 percent of snaps and seen 43
opportunities (carries plus targets) through two weeks. Spears,
on the other hand, has seen just 16 opportunities on a 34-percent
snap share.
This isn’t an offense that would support a fantasy-relevant
RB in a split backfield. But this backfield is far from split
and Pollard will be a strong RB2 option until something changes.
Hopkins is clearly still ramping up after suffering a knee injury
during the preseason. He has run a route in just 34 percent of
Levis’s dropbacks. His route participation climbed in Week
2, with that number coming in at 51 percent. Until Hopkins is
a truly full-time player, he must be kept on the bench.
A nonfactor in Week 1, Singletary bounced back to log 95 yards
and a touchdown on 16 carries. He has 32 total touches through
two games. His backups, Tyrone Tracy and Eric Gray, have combined
for seven. While Nabers should be viewed as the centerpiece of
the offense, Singletary is next in line. The question is whether
usage will lead to value. Cleveland has allowed 114.5 yards per
game on the ground, which isn’t bad, but they’re one of just eight
clubs to give up 5.0 yards per carry. That affords the veteran
back some potential. He’s a possible RB3.
It feels like there’s a little bit of positivity surrounding
Jones after he played turnover-free ball last Sunday, posting
178 yards and 2 TDs through the air while adding 32 yards on the
ground. Pump the brakes. The NFL’s worst defense in 2023 was Washington,
and it’s unclear they’re appreciably better this year. Cleveland
didn’t allow Trevor Lawrence to get on track in Week 2 -- they
sacked him four times and he completed just 14 of his 30 passing
attempts. Jones should be benched this weekend.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Through two games, the veteran wideout has caught five passes
for 27 yards. It’s a brutal start. The lone silver lining is that
Deshaun Watson continues to go his way with regularity, targeting
Cooper nine times in Week 1 and eight times this past week. The
Giants haven’t exactly bled yardage through the air, but quarterbacks
are completing 79.2 percent of their passes on them (worst in
the NFL), and they failed to force a punt against Washington.
Despite his early struggles, try to keep Cooper in the lineup
this week to see if the Browns can get him going.
Ford averaged 9.1 yards per carry last week. That’s the
good news. The bad news is his usage dipped dramatically. After
garnering 18 touches in Week 1, which he turned into 69 yards
and a score, Ford had just eight touches against the Jags. Journeyman
D’Onta Foreman logged 15 touches in that game, nearly doubling
Ford’s total. It’s so early in the season that it’s
hard to know if that will be the new norm going forward or a complete
outlier born of the Florida humidity or something. It can’t
be dismissed, however, relegating Ford to flex status with upside.
Njoku (ankle) racked up a DNP last week after sustaining an ankle
injury in Week 1. He’s considered day-to-day, so there’s
a decent chance he’ll be inactive again. Even if he’s
not, this feels like a week to keep him on your bench. The Browns
should be able to handle the G-Men with or without Njoku, so the
possibility exists that he could be on a snap count of some kind
if he returns. Given Watson’s struggles he’d be a
fringe TE1 anyway, so make alternate plans if you can.
There’s no sugarcoating it, D’Andre Swift has looked
absolutely awful this season. He’s averaged 2.0 yards per
carry and he ranks dead last in rush yards over expected with
-54, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The only hope for Swift this week is that the Bears face an atrocious
Colts rush defense. Indianapolis has been burned for 150-plus
yards in consecutive weeks by Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs, two backs
who were highly inefficient last year. It’s painful, but
this matchup could allow Swift to be serviceable. If he can’t
get it done against the Colts, it’s time to start looking
for a replacement for Swift.
Rome Odunze is another player who is a suspect start in Week
3. He’s obviously quite talented and has been on the field
enough (78 percent route participation) to make an impact. He
just hasn’t performed with this opportunity. He has a measly
12-percent target share and three receptions on the year.
The Bears’ offense is clearly working out the kinks with new
faces at nearly every position, a struggling offensive line and
a rookie under center. It’s intriguing to bet on Odunze with Keenan
Allen (heel) likely sidelined once again, but this is most likely
a “wait until you see it” situation in terms of relying on Odunze
to produce.
Fade: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Michael Pittman Jr. absolutely feasted last year in Shane Steichen’s
RPO-heavy offense with Gardner Minshew delivering passes. Things
haven’t exactly gone Pittman’s way this year with Anthony Richardson
calling the shots. Richardson currently leads all quarterbacks
in off-target throw rate, with over a quarter of his attempts
being deemed off the mark. This doesn’t bode well for Pittman
whose success rides on consistent, accurate looks in the intermediate
portion of the field. It hasn’t worked out just yet, but it’s
not time to give up on Pittman. He’s been targeted on 29 percent
of his routes and remains the go-to option in Indianapolis. He
should still be viewed as a low-end WR2.
Alec Pierce has connected with Richardson for a touchdown in
both games this season. It goes without saying that this trend
will not keep up. Pierce’s production, which has heavily relied
on deep shots and touchdowns, just isn’t sustainable. The Colts’
slot receiver, Josh Downs, is also set to return this week which
creates a messy situation for Pierce’s snap share. Don’t get caught
watching the box score and think Pierce is a viable starter; he
belongs on the bench.
You wouldn’t sit fantasy football 1st rounder Tyreek Hill just
because Tua Tagovailoa is out for an extended period of time,
but the Dolphins downgrade at QB presents a troubling situation
for Hill owners. Hill has only topped 55 yards receiving in one
regular season game in which Skylar Thompson has started or seen
extended action (he did secure 69 yards in a playoff game in Buffalo,
and that took 15 targets to achieve). Thompson has struggled with
accuracy, completing just 57% of his 119 regular season passes,
and just 40% in 45 attempts in the post-season. Even more troubling
for Hill has been the fact that the completions Thompson has made
have been primarily in the short field (just 5.1 yards per attempt
combined). Hill may be facing a rare fall for such an elite receiver,
where he may be a disappointing flex in tough matchups.
The Seahawks, granted, are probably not elite, as while they
have allowed the 4th fewest points to wideouts so far this year,
they allowed the 12th most last year and haven’t really
been tested (Denver and New England as opponents) in 2024. Even
if Seattle isn’t more than they were last year, Thompson’s
unfortunate struggles push Hill down into WR2 territory, and with
potential for a dud.
The news is obviously no better for Jaylen Waddle, who has only
topped 52 yards in one game in which Thompson has been pressed
into action, and that was a game in which Teddy Bridgewater replaced
Thompson fairly early in the game. If Hill is a WR2 this week,
Waddle is probably best thought of as no more than a flex.
Raheem Mostert missed Week 2 with a chest injury, and his status
for Week 3 is uncertain at this time. He’s worth keeping an eye
on, as the Dolphins will undoubtedly put more focus on running
the football without their QB1 available, and that could put an
active and relatively healthy Mostert in the RB2 conversation
against a Seahawks defense that gave up 16 points to Rhamondre
Stevenson and 10.8 points to Antonio Gibson a week ago.
It’s no surprise to find Thompson in the “fade”
section. He will have to prove he can hit a higher rate of passes
and some downfield targets before he can be thought of as more
than a QB3.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Coming off a 10 reception 129-yard performance where he also
reached the end zone, and despite being virtually a perennial
Top 20 wide receiver in fantasy seemingly on the verge of Top
10 stardom, Metcalf lands here rather than as a “no brainer” out
of respect for Jalen Ramsey’s abilities. You can’t sit Metcalf,
but be a bit tempered about what he may do this week. His all-world
talents may see him score a rare beat on Ramsey, but there’s a
good chance that it will be a bit more of a pedestrian box score
for DK, so think of him as a low-end WR2 this week.
The football world may mark Week 2 of the 2024 season as the
moment Jaxon Smith-Njigba both arrived and surpassed stellar veteran
Tyler Lockett in Seattle. Smith-Njigba did impressive work, corralling
12 of 16 targets for 117 yards against a solid New England defense.
Meanwhile, Lockett saw just 2 targets, catching both for 16 yards.
Still, we are only one week removed from Lockett having his prototypical
efficient performance (6 receptions for 77 yards on 7 targets),
and Smith-Njigba being quiet with 2 receptions on 2 targets.
There may be a bit of a seesaw here before Smith-Njigba officially
surpasses Lockett, and both receivers seeing just over 80% of
snaps last week supports this possibility. Both are probably flex
considerations against the Dolphins, with Jalen Ramsey likely
sticking with D.K. Mecalf much of the game, but the Dolphins have
strength elsewhere at cornerback. Smith-Njiba has played more
snaps in the slot than any other receiver in the NFL this year
(80, according to playerprofiler.com), and that should mean he’ll
draw a lot more of Kaden Kahou than Kendall Fuller. Smith-Njigba
should be a solid WR3 and Lockett a WR4 for this one.
Geno may or may not be a Seahawk after this season, but he is
at the least padding his late-career resume with his performance
to start the year, completing nearly 74% of his passes and throwing
for nearly 250 yards per game (with a league average just a hair
over 200 yards, so far). He’s also added an impressive 34-yard
rushing touchdown with his legs.
But the Dolphins, led by the likes of Jalen Ramsey, have been
tough on quarterbacks, and that includes Josh Allen last week.
Allen’s relatively easy day may explain some of why he only scored
9.8 points against the Fins, but they also held him to just 2
yards rushing. Meanwhile, he and Trevor Lawrence combined for
just 10 rushing yards to go with 301 total passing yards and 2
touchdowns through two weeks. This looks like a tough spot for
Smith to succeed, even with the fine receiving trio he has, and
to top it off the Seahawks may try to play keep away, knowing
the Dolphins are so shorthanded at QB.
The Panthers leading back in 2023, Hubbard leads Carolina’s backfield
in snap rate (56%), rushing attempts (16) and receptions (4) through
two weeks. This should change when Jonathon Brooks comes off of
IR, but for now Hubbard is getting “the fatter half” of the backfield
action, ahead of Miles Sanders. Hubbard managed a Top 30 finish
last year and was in the flex discussion often enough, and with
an upgrade at quarterback and a Raiders defense that has given
up the 9th most points to running backs to start the year (after
giving up the 9th most last year), it’s fair to look at Chuba
as a viable flex this week.
My greatest concern with Diontae Johnson coming into the season
was his style is quite similar to Adam Thielen’s. Thielen
is aging, but coming off 103 receptions - it was hard to see him
going quietly. In return, Johnson’s arrival presented an
unwelcome competition for the underneath looks Thielen dominated
last season.
Unsurprisingly, under Bryce Young, neither saw a ton of action
nor produced much the first two games. Johnson led on targets
(12), but has produced just 5-34-0 in two weeks, while Thielen
5-69-0 on 7 targets. Johnson does seem like he’s got the edge,
but it’s important to note that Dalton may have different preferences.
Thielen scored 26 fantasy points in the Ref Rifle’s one start
last year.
There’s a chance that Dalton taking over at QB allows for
not just one, but multiple Panther receivers to have fantasy value
(D.J. Chark had 16.6 points in Dalton’s 2023 start), but
the similar styles of Thielen and Johnson present a threat to
each other’s ceilings. Who to choose? Snap rate won’t
help much, through two weeks: Thielen has played 80% of snaps,
while Johnson has played 79%. I’d favor Thielen this week
against a middling Raiders defense whose weakness against wideouts
has been giving up receiving touchdowns (16 last year and 2 to
start this season) – a strength of Thielen’s (59 career
touchdown receptions). Think of Thielen as a WR4 and Johnson as
a WR5.
It’s not the most likely scenario that Dalton steps in
to lead the Carolina Panthers offense and becomes more than a
back-end QB2 in fantasy football this year. Yet, after posting
365 yards passing and 2 touchdowns in his only start last year
(a 37-27 loss to the Seahawks), and the Panthers having added
some help on offense, it’s worth watching if you are feeling
short-changed at the position. Dalton could at least offer streaming
value in certain matchups. The Raiders are respectable, even if
not great, against opposing quarterbacks (12th least fantasy points
allowed last year, 13th so far this year), so think of Dalton
as no more than a Hail Mary, for now, pending how he comes out
of the gate this week.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
The idea that Davante Adams would lose value with Gardner Minshew
taking over at quarterback for the Raiders led to the counter
that he might ultimately turn out to be a discount in fantasy
drafts. That latter thought has gained steam after Adams put up
a 9-110-1 line against the Ravens last week, following a respectable,
if unexciting, 5-59-0 in Week 1 against the Chargers. Passing
is down by nearly 20% to start the year, so Adams’ numbers are
even more impressive. Davante will face stellar Panthers’ corner
Jaycee Horn, who held Chris Olave to 2-11-0 in Week 1, but Adams
is still a go-to guy and Carolina has surrendered 5 touchdown
passes through the first two weeks. Even against Horn, Adams is
reasonably a high-end WR2.
Meyers has predictably had a quieter start to 2024 than he had
in 2023. Averaging 4.0 targets and 3.5/45/0, there may be few
days in which Meyers has an impact, but this could be one of them.
Outside of Horn, the Panthers are short of answers in coverage,
and that has been exposed by Rashid Shaheed (3-73-1) and Quentin
Johnston (5-51-2) to start the year. While Minshew, the league
leader in completion percentage thus far, is unlikely to shy away
from Adams too much, there should be a couple more good looks
for the likes of Meyers this week, especially with tight end Brock
Bowers demanding attention. As such, Meyers is in the flex conversation
this week.
After losing snaps Week 1 following a lost fumble, Zamir White
returned to his role as the Raiders RB1, seeing a healthy 63%
snap rate in a close victory over the Ravens. This week’s
game with the Panthers should be similar, and if White protects
the ball, he should be in line for plenty enough snaps to take
advantage of a Panthers defense that has allowed 11 or more points
to three different running backs through the season’s first
two weeks, including 19.6 to Alvin Kamara and 19.5 to J.K. Dobbins.
White’s numbers look poor, but don’t give up too
quickly – he’s already broken 5 tackles through two
weeks, according to pro-football-reference.com, and he’s
walking into a breakout matchup. He’s a fair RB2 against
Carolina.
Minshew walks into Week 3 with a whopping 77.5 completion percentage.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have surrendered a 75% completion percentage.
Talk about a fit. It was only a year ago that the Panthers were
the toughest defense for QB’s, at least when it came to fantasy
points against. While that was partly because teams didn’t feel
the need to throw against them, they also had fierce pass rusher
Brian Burns (Giants) and more depth in the secondary.
Minshew faces a Panthers team in 2024 that has surrendered the
2nd most passing touchdowns to start the year (5), and this could
be a close game where the Raiders can’t just sit on the
ball, unlike what many teams did to Carolina last year. He’s
not a QB1, but if you’re short at quarterback this week,
the matchup makes him a respectable QB2.
Meanwhile, following a surprising amount of action in Week 1,
Mattison saw just 4 rushes in Week 2. This despite the Raiders
playing in a close battle against the Ravens. Mattison did manage
to convert his 1 net rushing yard into a touchdown, but Zamir
White easily out-snapped and out-touched him (12 to 4). Through
2 games, White has 27 touches to Mattison’s 13, and that
is likely to be roughly where it stays, barring injury to one
of the two.
Mattison has seen the only 2 redzone touches for either back.
It’s probably not enough to consider using him most weeks,
but in deep leagues this week – against a very vulnerable
Panthers’ defense – he’s worth consideration
if you’re shorthanded.
Henry’s usage through the first two weeks has been somewhat concerning,
as he's been out-snapped by Justice Hill and played just 46 percent
of the team's offensive snaps. Henry has been mostly absent on
passing downs, with only one catch on three targets so far. However,
his value remains solid due to his heavy usage on early downs
and in goal-line situations, as evidenced by his 31 carries for
130 yards and two touchdowns.
Looking ahead, Henry has a favorable matchup against a Cowboys
defense that has struggled mightily against running backs in 2024,
including surrendering 180 total yards and four touchdowns to
Alvin Kamara in Week 2. Henry’s role as the primary early-down
and goal-line back sets him up for a strong fantasy day, particularly
in a game where he could see plenty of red-zone opportunities.
Even with the reduced snap count, Henry is still a valuable RB2
with RB1 upside, especially in this plus matchup.
Flowers is quickly emerging as a valuable fantasy asset, showing
that Lamar Jackson's WR1 role might finally hold real fantasy
value. With 21 targets over the first two games, Flowers has been
productive, catching 13 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown,
and he's even been utilized in the running game with two carries,
giving him an added element of versatility.
What's especially encouraging for fantasy managers is Flowers'
usage, playing in nearly 90 percent of the Ravens' offensive snaps.
He’s consistently on the field, only coming off in clear
running situations, which speaks to the team's trust in him as
a key offensive weapon.
While Baltimore's run-heavy offense might cap his overall ceiling,
Flowers' high target volume and steady involvement make him a
strong WR2 option in fantasy lineups, even in tough matchups.
His role is solidified, and his consistent usage makes him a reliable
weekly starter with upside.
Andrews and Likely present an intriguing but increasingly murky
situation for fantasy managers. While Andrews has long been considered
a top-tier tight end, the emergence of Likely has started to create
uncertainty about the distribution of targets and snaps between
the two.
As the Ravens' offense remains run-heavy, and with the Cowboys'
defense being particularly vulnerable to opposing running backs,
Baltimore might lean even more heavily on their ground game in
Week 3. This could lead to a lower passing volume overall, which
would make it harder to trust either tight end for a big fantasy
performance.
While both Andrews and Likely should still be started in seasonal
leagues due to the lack of consistent tight-end production across
the league, they are risky plays for DFS formats. The potential
50-50 split, combined with the Ravens' run-first tendencies, makes
this a tricky situation to navigate until we have more clarity
on their respective roles.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Lamb is one of the biggest “no-brainers” in all of
fantasy football most weeks, but the 2023 WR1 is currently dealing
with an ankle injury that has left him limited in practice all
week. While there have been no indications that Lamb will miss
the game, it is concerning that he is hobbled right now, especially
in a game that could easily get out of hand in the Ravens’
favor like happened against the Cowboys in Week 2 when they were
blown out by the Saints. In that scenario, there’s a decent
possibility that the Cowboys would bench Lamb early to not further
aggravate his injury, thus adding to the risk.
Fantasy managers will still be starting Lamb as long as he’s
on the field, but there is enough risk that it needs to be called
out.
We’re only two weeks into the season so it’s not
time to panic yet, but so far things have not been good for the
Cowboys’ offense and particularly quarterback Dak Prescott.
Prescott threw for just 179 yards and a single touchdown in Dallas’
blowout win over Cleveland in Week 1, which is understandable
given the situation, but his Week 2 performance saw him throw
a pair of interceptions in a blowout loss to New Orleans. While
he did manage to throw for 293 yards and another single touchdown,
these low-double-digit totals are not what fantasy managers were
hoping for when they selected him as their QB1 coming into the
season.
Prescott now has a matchup against a Ravens’ defense that gave
up just a single touchdown pass to both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner
Minshew and has 3 interceptions. The defensive matchup itself
isn’t enough to bench Prescott, but there’s a lingering concern
that CeeDee Lamb could be limited in this game which could be
disastrous for the Cowboys’ offense. While we saw Jalen Tolbert
ascend a bit in Week 2, he and Brandin Cooks have certainly not
proven to be explosive playmakers in Dallas. This is a riskier-than-usual
matchup for Prescott and with players like Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield,
Jayden Daniels, and Sam Darnold off to a hot start, it’s likely
that many fantasy managers have a decent option that will allow
them to pivot away from Prescott for the time being.
Most fantasy managers expected a split backfield here in Dallas,
but the fact that the touch distribution has been exactly 20 for
Ezekiel Elliott and 20 for Rico Dowdle has made it extremely difficult
to use either of them for fantasy purposes. It’s not just
the touches that are being split equally, either. They’ve
played almost an identical number of snaps in each game, as well,
and the worst part is that we saw two completely different game
scripts (Cowboys blowout win, Cowboys blowout loss), which implies
that there really isn’t any situation where the backfield
will lean significantly toward either back at the moment.
Dowdle and Elliott could both be low-level flex plays, but it’s
tough to have confidence in either player right now.
I’m always hesitant to draft lingering hold-outs, as there’s
virtually no substitute for being at camp regardless of a player’s
home workouts. Additionally, injury risk once back on the field
is also greater. Brandon Aiyuk has not had much of an impact early
in the season, and his 1.4 average yards of separation –
pacing his lowest since prior to his 2022 breakout – is
perhaps a sign that he’s been struggling to get into game
shape.
That being said, Week 2 (4-43-0 on 5 targets) was a step in the
right direction from Week 1 (2-28-0 on 5 targets), and his number
of snaps jumped considerably from 60% to a more normal rate for
someone of his stature (87%), so Week 3’s visit with the
Rams may be a bit of an elixir. The Rams have been cooked by Jameson
Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. for 120+ yard performances and
at least a score, each. This is a great environment for Aiyuk
to get statistically healthy in a hurry.
The Rams have given up the 4th most points to quarterbacks this
year, after giving up the 6th most a season ago. Much of that
has been due to vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks, including
surrendering 400 yards rushing and 6 rushing touchdowns, dating
back to last season. As a juxtaposition, this year, the Rams surrendered
just 12.4 points to Jared Goff in Week 1, and then 28.5 to Kyler
Murray last week. Purdy isn’t immobile, but he’s certainly not
the rusher Murray is.
Purdy hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in his last five
games. Dating back to Week 16 last year and counting the post
season, Purdy has only 6 passing touchdowns against 6 interceptions
over seven games. Coming off a camp and preseason where he struggled
with turnovers, and entering Week 3 with an injured offense, (no
Deebo, McCaffrey and likely Kittle), the 49ers may play it safe
once they have the lead, making it difficult for Brock to reach
QB1 numbers.
Jauan Jennings gets a chance to play a bigger role in Week 3,
with the 49ers’ injuries on offense – particularly the loss of
fellow wideout Deebo Samuel. He won’t play a similar role as the
swiss-army-knife Samuel, but his targets should increase. In his
career, Jennings has 85 receptions, 1064 yards and 7 touchdowns,
but it’s important to remember that it’s taken three years worth
of game play for the former 7th round pick to get compile those
numbers. Playing Jennings this week is probably best suited for
deep leagues, where one might be inclined to start a WR5 in a
favorable matchup.
Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo is an all-world athlete, but
still quite raw. Jordan Mason’s dominance of the snaps at
running back in McCaffrey’s absence – 81 percent –
coupled with Guerendo seeing just 4 snaps through the first two
games tell the story. With Deebo out, the 10 total carries he
saw through the first two games are available, and those may largely
fall to Guerendo with Mason arguably at a max load, but several
touches are unlikely to be enough action to get Guerendo on the
fantasy radar.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Kyren Williams maintained his grip on the Rams RB1 slot in the
depth chart in Week 2, despite a late appearance from rookie Blake
Corum. With how banged up the Rams are on the offensive line;
this should continue for the immediate future. How efficient Williams
can be with a whole defense focused on him is a fair question
– he’s only had a 2.5 rushing average on 30 carries
to this point. A lot of Kyren’s success last year came on
yards before contact (3.0 per attempt), and with a broken offensive
line, he’s produced just 1.1 yards before contact this year.
But, on volume alone, he’s still no worse than a limited-ceiling
RB2, and that’s your best bet from this Rams offense right
now.
In the absence of Cooper Kupp last year, and Puka Nacua out of
the gate this year, Robinson has shown some potential to step
into a bigger role. So far this year, he’s seen 11 targets in
the first two games, and now with Kupp out once again, there are
another 10-15 targets per game to go around. The Rams will desperately
attempt to shift some of this to the run game, though it will
be especially hard to do so in weeks like this, where they will
likely see a lot of negative gamescript. Robinson doesn’t quite
have the capabilities of Kupp to become a target monster on a
weekly basis, but after having a pair of 10 target games last
year, he will likely have some noteworthy days – at least in terms
of volume. With no Kupp and Nacua, and a lot of negative game
script reasonably in the Rams future, Robinson has some flex potential
as a WR3.
Stafford must feel snake-bitten. He’s always been a master
of inventing receivers, but he’s really got his work cut
out for him now. Minus his top two receivers, coupled with a difficult
49ers defense, and Stafford is realistically facing QB3 territory
this week. It’s a tough break for a QB who may not have
many seasons left, and an equally tough break for fantasy owners
who are relying on Stafford for help.
Tutu Atwell, meanwhile, was a notable presence early last year
while Kupp was on the IR (3 double digit fantasy performances
in the first four weeks), and last week – with Kupp going
out – he saw 3 receptions for 48 yards in a blowout loss
to the Cardinals. While Atwell could be in line for something
close to the 8 to 9 targets he saw weekly without Kupp early last
year, he has seen few snaps this year, even with Kupp leaving
early last week (10). The Rams simply don’t view him as
a big part of the offense, even with all the injuries.
Jordan Whittington received some buzz in camp, but even in playing
50% of snaps last week, only had 2 targets (2-22-0), and it’s
important to remember that he is a rookie 6th round pick. Journeyman
receiver Tyler Johnson had a 5-79-0 line on 7 targets in Week
1, but only produced 2-20-0 on 3 targets in Week 2. Stafford is
quite the magician at squeezing the most out of his receivers,
but everyone has their limits and the receiving corps of the Rams
may not be up to the task. It’s quite unclear who may see
significant action to be more than a stash on your bench at this
time.
After a completely silent-though-active Week 1, Blake Corum only
saw meaningful action last week once the Rams were running out
the clock on their own brutal defeat. It was encouraging that
Sean McVay and company wanted to get Corum some work (and he did,
picking up 8 carries late) – certainly a step in the right
direction. He may see similar action again, this week, if this
game gets out of hand – presumably in the Niners favor –
but it’s unlikely to be enough for fantasy relevance.
The Cardinals are among the few defenses to give up over 200
yards to opposing passers both games this year (as wild as that
is to say), and are coming off a 2023 season where they gave up
the 4th most points to the position, including 32 touchdown passes.
They have given up the 3rd most FPts this season despite facing
a Matthew Stafford with a gutted Rams offense. Josh Allen scolded
them for 31.2 in Week 1. Jared Goff draws them Week 3, and will
look to bounce back from a multi-turnover performance against
Tampa Bay.
Goff has just 1 touchdown against 3 interceptions to start the
year, and has a history of taking a step back following an encouraging
season. Still, he’s amongst the leaders with 524 passing
yards through the first two weeks. The key, particularly for immobile
QB’s like Goff, is to get that touchdown-to-interception
rate flipped. With receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and emerging
Jameson Williams, plus tight end Sam LaPorta and a great offensive
line, expect that kind of performance and a QB1 day from Goff
this week.
Speaking of LaPorta, the second-year emerging star has fizzled
through the first two games, producing just 6 receptions for 58
yards on 8 targets. He also has yet to score, following 10 touchdowns
in his rookie season. For those not rushing to trade LaPorta,
a bit of patience may begin to pay off this week. Goff’s
3 interceptions are likely to encourage him to look to his safety
valve, LaPorta, more than he has thus far. Expect defenses to
also begin to adjust to Jameson Williams scorching start, creating
more space for LaPorta to roam beneath the safeties. Though Arizona
has not given up much to tight ends to open the season, this should
be a week where LaPorta returns to TE1 production.
Jameson Williams has 20 targets, 200 yards and a score through
his first two games. Finally healthy and available to start the
season, it’s undeniable that Williams has broken out and
looks the part of a former NFL 1st round pick. With his added
running ability (2-28-0), he’s got WR1 upside every week,
and is no less than a WR2 for this matchup.
Lastly, but hardly least in this robust offense, is running back
David Montgomery. Those who drafted Jahymr Gibbs thinking he would
secure the bulk of the backfield pie this year are surely disappointed
to find that Monty is not going away, while those who banked on
Montgomery’s prowess as a power rusher are quite content.
That should continue all year long, health willing, and the good
news for both Gibbs and Montgomery owners is that there will virtually
always be plenty of action to go around behind a great offensive
line. Montgomery should continue to be a high end RB2 this week.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
While the Lions have made some improvements on pass defense over
the off season, it’s mostly been in pass rushing, as pass
coverage continues to be their weakest link. The Lions have allowed
the 5th most passing yards, thus far, and that’s great news
for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals passing attack. What
is also great news for Murray is that the Lions have surrendered
34 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to opposing QB’s
despite facing the legs of Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
Murray’s style is built for him to be a QB1, even sans facing
the Lions, and it’s easy to think of him as a high end QB1
for this matchup.
The Lions have allowed 100+ yard performances (with a score)
to an opposing receiver in each of the first two weeks, and remarkably
this is actually a streak that dates back through the final three
games of last season. If there is a Cardinal that is apt to keep
the streak going against the Lions secondary, it’s Harrison,
and his Week 2 break out (5-130-2) against Tre’Davious White
and friends demonstrates what everyone already knew he was capable
of. Harrison may be a little too green to pencil in as a locked
WR1, but you can’t argue against being thrilled with him
as a high end WR2 against the Lions.
This is a difficult game to view James Conner as more than a
flex, despite how well he continues to produce in Arizona. The
reasoning isn’t complicated – the Lions have allowed 2.9 yards
per rush to start the year, after allowing just 3.5 last year.
Additionally, linebacker Jack Campbell and company have allowed
just 4 receptions for 9 yards to the likes of Kyren Williams and
Rachaad White. Conner has his work cut out for him this week,
and bell cow-esque volume is the only thing keeping him in your
line up.
If Conner has his work cut out for him, Trey Benson has the odds
heavily stacked against him. Having seen an uptick in snaps (33%
in Week 2 after 13% in Week 1) and a jump in touches (12 following
4 in Week 1), there’s some encouragement for the long term.
But the bump came in a blowout win against the Rams – unlikely
against the Lions – and Benson has yet to do much with those
touches (ie. his 1.6 rushing average). As important, and just
touched upon, the Lions are difficult against running backs, and
likely to mute the production of both.
Xavier Worthy is exactly what we thought he would be. He is not
a high-level target earner but has the skill set to score 20 fantasy
points on five touches. He’s averaging 12.5 fantasy points
per game on just seven total targets.
Worthy’s production is going to be highly volatile. This
is something that fantasy managers are just going to have to come
to terms with. If you have other strong options at WR, the inconsistencies
of Worthy can be sustained from your Flex spot.
Carson Steele seems to be the favorite to take on the rushing
work left behind in the wake of Isiah Pacheco’s injury. The tough
thing about evaluating this situation is that there is very little
information to work from. Pacheco had absolutely dominated the
backfield through two weeks and Steele’s only opportunities came
on some short-yardage situations.
Steele has a reasonable chance to crack double-digit carries
and is the primary candidate to take on the goal line work, making
him a respectable start if your running back room is thin. If
it can be avoided, it’s smart to see how this backfield
shakes out and keep Steele on the bench.
The thoughts on Samaje Perine are quite similar to the stance
on Steele. This backfield is likely to be a heavy rotation and
Perine’s role as the primary pass catcher will lead to a
smaller workload than Steele’s. He has the lowest floor
of the duo due to his lack of projected rushing work and is far
too risky to rely on this week.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Ray-Ray McCloud is a bit of an anomaly. He isn’t exactly
considered to be a talented receiver, but he currently leads this
team in targets. And he’s not just a PPR compiler who racks
up dink-and-dunk targets to score fantasy points; McCloud also
holds a 35-percent air yards share. We certainly aren’t
going to end the year with McCloud leading the Falcons in targets,
but he can be used as a “break glass in case of emergency”
option at the flex.
Darnell Mooney filled up the box score last week, turning seven
targets into 88 yards and a score. Looking closer at how he accumulated
these points, it becomes quite clear that this isn’t sustainable.
The vast majority of his points were scored on a 42-yard touchdown
and a chunk play on the Falcons’ final drive where the Eagles
were playing soft zone coverage. Mooney will be running a lot
of empty routes while the vast majority of looks go to Bijan Robinson,
Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and McCloud.
The 2024 rookie wide receiver class is looking like it’s
going to be special and one of the most interesting early breakouts
has been Brian Thomas. His numbers aren’t anything spectacular,
but Thomas has caught six passes for 141 yards and a touchdown,
leading all Jaguars pass-catchers across the board. Many draft
analysts criticized Thomas as a player who was a raw prospect
and would likely need time to develop, but so far, he’s
proving to be a valuable asset in the Jacksonville offense. The
on-paper matchup would indicate that this should be a game that
requires a lot of passing, so it’s a good time to take a
chance on the rookie.
It’s been a tough start to the season both for the Jaguars and
their running back Travis Etienne, but he’s been able to salvage
otherwise ugly fantasy days by getting into the end zone in each
of his first two contests. Etienne essentially split carries with
Tank Bigsby in Week 1, but with Bigsby missing Week 2 due to an
injury and still wearing a non-contact uniform in practice this
week, it looks like Etienne will be back to dominating the touches
for at least one more week. This isn’t a great matchup for Etienne,
but he’s a player who should get plenty of opportunities, particularly
near the goal line, as long as he’s healthy.
While Brian Thomas has been an early breakout, the rest of the
Jaguars’ passing attack has been terrible thus far. Trevor
Lawrence has thrown for just 380 yards and one touchdown and while
he’s been able to avoid throwing any interceptions, he’s
barely completing 50 percent of his passes and he isn’t
doing enough to be considered a fantasy starter in single-QB formats
right now.
With Lawrence struggling, most of his weapons have also been
brutal from a fantasy standpoint. Perhaps none more surprising
than Christian Kirk. Kirk averaged over 65 receiving yards per
game in 2023, but he’s been held to just two total catches
for 29 yards on seven targets through two games. In fact, Kirk
caught just one pass on three targets for NEGATIVE-one-yard in
the Jaguars’ Week 2 home loss to the Browns. The Jaguars
eventually need to address how bad this offense has been and that
could result in more emphasis on getting the ball to Kirk, but
for now, he needs to be avoided in fantasy lineups.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Cook scored just two rushing touchdowns in 2022 and two rushing
touchdowns in 2023, so naturally, we all should have assumed that
he’d explode for a two-rushing-touchdown performance this
past week in the Bills’ blowout victory over the Dolphins.
Cook had his most productive fantasy day ever, totaling 95 yards
as a runner and receiver, and he even scored a receiving touchdown
to add to his two rushing scores.
Cook has now touched the ball 34 times in two games, proving
himself to be a bigger part of the Bills’ offense than he
had been in his first two seasons. Buffalo is still moving the
ball at a good pace, so this is a good situation to be invested
in and Cook should continue to pay off for fantasy managers, especially
if he can see more goal-line touches.
The Bills’ passing game has been struggling and they’re spreading
the ball around too much for any one player to have been overly
productive for fantasy. The best of the bunch, though, has been
Shakir, who has managed to go into double-digit PPR points in
each of his first two games. Shakir had played fewer snaps than
both Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins despite dramatically out-producing
both of them, so there’s a possibility that they will start to
work him into the offense more as early as this week.
It’s been a nightmare for most fantasy managers who selected
tight ends early in drafts and few have been worse than the Bills’
Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid was particularly interesting coming into
the year because the Bills’ pass-catching group had almost no
proven connection with Josh Allen, other than Shakir, so Kincaid
should have theoretically been targeted heavily early in the season.
That hasn’t been the case, though, as Kincaid has barely out-snapped
fellow tight end Dawson Knox and he’s seen just six total targets
through his first two games.
Kincaid probably still needs to be started in most leagues because
the tight end position is so bad throughout the league, but the
ceiling appears to be falling on Kincaid’s hopes of finishing
as the TE1 in 2024.
Through two games, only one team has allowed fewer passing yards
than the Bengals, and they just oversaw a near-historically low
output from Patrick Mahomes, who they also intercepted twice.
Daniels, meanwhile, has yet to throw a touchdown pass. So, why
is he here? His running ability. The rookie has rushed for 132
yards and two TDs on the young season, and this feels like a game
where he could do a lot of scrambling when his suspect receiver
corps can’t gain separation. Yes, there’s some downside
with Daniels, but I wouldn’t be shy about assigning him
top-10 upside for Week 3.
Among Washington’s top four in terms of receiving yardage,
only one (Noah Brown) is a receiver. The others are tight ends
or running backs. Ekeler sits atop the heap with 99 yards on seven
receptions. He’s added 48 yards on the ground, giving him
an average of 74 total yards per game. Clearly, the Commanders
are trying to get Daniels to make the safe read -- Washington
has yet to turn the ball over this season -- and checking it down
to his backs and tight ends is part of that strategy. It’s
not hard to picture Ekeler seeing a lot of work, particularly
if the Bengals push out to a large lead, forcing the Commanders
to utilize their passing down personnel. Ekeler could fill an
RB3 slot.
Over his last four seasons, McLaurin has never caught fewer than
77 passes or gained less than 1,000 yards. Through two games,
he’s on pace for 68 catches and 332 yards. That’s
a slow start. Doubtless things will improve as Daniels gains confidence
and the duo improve their chemistry. This looks like a bad week
to bank on that, however, with Cincy allowing just 128.5 yards
per game through the air, which is second only to Tennessee (114.0).
While you probably drafted McLaurin to be your WR3, you should
strongly consider your alternatives before using a lineup spot
on him.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Moss has created a little distance between himself and Chase
Brown, logging 24 touches to Brown’s 10 through two games.
While his overall production hasn’t been great, Moss has
a chance to get things going this week against Washington, which
allowed 5.9 yards per carry against the lowly Giants last Sunday.
The Bengals are notoriously slow starters under Burrow, but it’s
typically Week 3 when things start to click. With their receivers
battling injury, Cincinnati could lean on Moss a bit more versus
the Commanders. He’s a solid RB3 with some juice.
First off, there’s no guarantee Higgins (hamstring) will
play in Week 3. After he missed the first two games of the season
with a hamstring injury, Higgins returned to practice on Thursday
in a limited capacity. Even if he’s back in uniform, the
Bengals could elect to ease him back in, limiting his snaps in
a game they should win with or without Higgins. While it’d
be tempting to get him in your lineup if he’s active against
Washington, it would be a risky move.
Gesicki led the Bengals in both receptions (7) and receiving yards
(91) against Kansas City. That performance might have some fantasy
owners thinking about scooping him up off waivers and plugging
him into your lineup. Not so fast. Burrow has always been receiver
focused in the passing game, and Gesicki’s big day could
have been more opponent specific after KC was lit up by Isaiah
Likely in Week 1. It’s worth keeping an eye on Gesicki to
see how he follows up, but it’s better to keep him away
from your lineup.
