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Favorites & Fades


Week 7

By: Nick Caron | HC Green | John Fessel | Mike Krueger
Updated: 10/16/25


Notes:
- All games will be available Friday
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Injury notes, Lines and Totals updated Sunday morning

Steelers @ Bengals - (Green)
Line: PIT -4.5
Total: 44.5

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: RB Jaylen Warren, WR DK Metcalf

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RB Kenneth Gainwell

With Warren back in action, Gainwell slid into his customary reserve role once again. He still got a dozen touches, though, including six receptions, making him the leading pass catcher for the Steelers versus Cleveland. The yardage failed to impressive -- those 12 combined touches resulted in just 36 yards -- but the team clearly trusts him, and on a short week against a Bengals club that has struggled to stop the run (135.7 yards/game; 28th in the NFL) we could see an increased workload in an effort to keep Warren fresh after just returning from injury. There is a bit of a last stand element at work for the Bengals, so an inspired effort is possible, it’s just far from clear they have the horses to hold up over a full 60 minutes. Gainwell is an interesting flex play.

Fade: QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers’ season-to-date stats aren’t bad, and he made some throws against the Browns that reaffirmed he still has elite arm talent. All that being said, the veteran has averaged just 194 yards and 1.5 TDs per game since the opener. He doesn’t run anymore, either, meaning his value derives entirely from his passing exploits. Make no mistake, this is a positive matchup for Pittsburgh’s passing game with Cincinnati sitting 31st in pass defense (258.5 yards/game). This just feels like a game where the Steelers will look to protect Rodgers, who will be playing his second game in five days at age 41. While not unplayable, he’d be a risk.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: WR Ja’Marr Chase

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: RB Chase Brown

We saw signs of life from the Bengals offense under Joe Flacco this past Sunday as they scored on three of their final four drives in Green Bay. Brown didn’t get a ton of work, actually setting a season low with 11 touches (compared to eight for Samaje Perine), but he averaged 4.7 yards per carry, which was easily his best mark of 2025. The Steelers currently sit 16th against the run, though neither the Vikings nor Browns got a lot down on the ground in Pittsburgh’s two most recent outings. Further clouding things was the emergent use of Perine against the Packers, which was a far cry from the early weeks when Brown was literally the only back getting any touches. Things remain a work in progress with Flacco, but Brown looks usable as a risk/reward flex.

Fade: WR Tee Higgins

While early returns suggest that Flacco will run the offense more effectively than Jake Browning did, we’re still miles from Joe Burrow territory, and as such only Chase can be considered a no brainer at this point. Higgins had his moments with Flacco, catching five of eight targets for 62 yards. As it happens, that 62-yard effort represents a new season high -- for comparison, he averaged 76 yards per game in 2024. The Bengals could find themselves in a spot where they need to throw to catch up, but then Pittsburgh can pin their ears back and get after the immobile Flacco, which is less than ideal. If you want to roll the dice on Higgins as a WR3, you can, but even in that capacity he can’t be viewed as a sure thing.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Bengals 17 ^ Top